MLB Pick of the Day (by stats university professor)

[ProfessorMJ]

Nice upset win by the Marlins in Pittsburgh last night!

Miguel Rojas homered to tie the game up when Miami was down to its final out.

Then, Garrett Cooper delivered the game-winning homerun in extra innings. Good job!

RECORD:

Bets won = 7
Bets lost = 4
Profit = +$5.51 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):

Nationals (at -120 or 1.833) vs Mets

This pick is based on "The Comeback" betting angle:

"Suppose Team A comes back from a deficit of 4+ runs against Team B. If they meet again the next day, bet Team A if their money line is greater than 1.5714 (-175 in American format)."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +38.13 units from 344 bets (ROI = 11.1%)
In 2019 (not good thus far, but small sample size): -5.41 units from 38 bets

Since Washington overcame a 6-run deficit in the 9th inning yesterday, we are betting them.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[ProfessorMJ]

Pick for September 5

Too bad the Nationals lost yesterday, but we are still showing a profit thus far. Let's get back on our feet quickly!

RECORD:

• Bets won = 7
• Bets lost = 5
• Profit = +$4.51 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9:30am Eastern Time):

Nationals (at -108 or 1.926) at Braves

The Nationals pick is based on 3 different betting systems.

As of August 28, 2019:

• Picks based on just one betting system: +$23.69 over 531 bets (ROI = 4.5%)
• Picks based on 2+ betting systems: +$18.64 over 110 bets (ROI = 16.9%)

In other words, the ROI more than triples when many betting angles are pointing in the same direction.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[moondog22]

thanks and good luck Professor

[ProfessorMJ]

Pick for Sept. 6th, 2019

The last two picks of the day turned out to be losers (both on the Nationals!).

RECORD:

Bets won = 7
Bets lost = 6
Profit = +$3.51 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9:30 AM Eastern Time):

Reds (at +106 or 2.06) vs D-Backs

This pick is based on "The Stingy Pitchers" betting angle:

"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while allowing just 0 or 1 run in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is 2.50 or less."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +26.54 units from 375 bets (ROI = 7.1%)
In 2019: -$4.63 units from 20 bets (small sample size!!)

Since Arizona's past two games both ended with a win while allowing just one run in each meeting (4-1 and 2-1 victories), we are betting against them.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[ProfessorMJ]

Pick for Sept. 7

Things are not going well, as we are undergoing a three-game losing skid! Let's roll up our sleeves and get back on the winning track ASAP!

RECORD:

Bets won = 7
Bets lost = 7
Profit = +$2.51 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9:30 AM Eastern Time):

Tigers (at +264 or 3.64) at A's

This pick is based on "The Comeback" betting angle:

"Suppose Team A comes back from a deficit of 4+ runs against Team B. If they meet again the next day, bet Team A if their money line is greater than 1.5714 (-175 in American format)."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +38.13 units from 344 bets (ROI = 11.1%)

Since Detroit overcame a four-run deficit yesterday and their money line today is indeed much greater than 1.5714, we are betting them. It's a long shot, but let's see how it plays out!

Have a good Saturday!

Professor MJ

[Udog]

Good luck, Professor!

[ProfessorMJ]

RECORD:

Bets won = 7
Bets lost = 8
Profit = +$1.51 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

Mets (at -221 or 1.452) vs Diamondbacks

This pick is based on "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting angle:

"Fade a road team whose winning streak of length 5+ was just snapped in their previous game (so you bet the HOME team)."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +22.06 units from 281 bets (ROI = 7.9%)
In 2019: -2.21 units from 27 bets

Since Arizona's five-game winning streak was just snapped yesterday, we are fading them today.

Good Monday all!

Professor MJ

[ProfessorMJ]

Pick for September 10

RECORD:

• Bets won = 8
• Bets lost = 8
• Profit = +$1.96 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

Rockies (at +131 or 2.31) vs Cards

This pick is based on "The Stingy Pitchers" betting angle:

"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while allowing just 0 or 1 run in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is 2.50 or less."

PERFORMANCE:

• Over 7 years: +26.54 units from 375 bets (ROI = 7.1%)
• In 2019: -4.63 units from 20 bets

Since St. Louis has won its previous two meetings by 2-0 and 10-1 scores, we are betting against them.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[ProfessorMJ]

Good job Rockies for a nice 2-1 upset win against the Cards yesterday, thanks to a 482-foot two-run homer by Nolan Arenado!

RECORD:

Bets won = 9
Bets lost = 8
Profit = +3.27$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):

Reds (at -143 or 1.70) at Mariners

This pick is based on "The Snapped Losing Streak" betting angle #2:

"Fade a team whose losing streak of length 4+ was just snapped in their previous game. Bet only if they are at home, facing the same opponent and their money line is greater than 1.50."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +27.36 units from 388 bets (ROI = 7.1%)
In 2019: +9.79 units from 27 bets (ROI = 36.3%)

Since Seattle just snapped their 6-game losing skid yesterday against those same Reds and they are playing at home, we are betting Cincy.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[Udog]

Thanks, Professor! Good luck!

[ProfessorMJ]

RECORD:

Bets won = 9
Bets lost = 9
Profit = +2.27$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):

Rangers (at +143 or 2.43) vs Rays

This pick is based on "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting angle:

"Fade a road team whose winning streak of length 5+ was just snapped in their previous game (so you bet the HOME team)."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +22.06 units from 281 bets (ROI = 7.9%)
In 2019: -2.21 units from 27 bets

Since Tampa Bay got its 6-game winning streak snapped last night, we are betting against them today.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[ProfessorMJ]

It's Friday the 13th!!! Hopefully it won't bring us some bad luck.

RECORD:

Bets won = 10
Bets lost = 9
Profit = +3.70$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day is the strongest play by far since I've got 3 different betting angles pointing in their direction (odds from Pinnacle):

Dodgers (at -125 or 1.80) at Mets

This pick is based on "The Blowout Effect" (system #2):

"Suppose Team A beats Team B by 7+ runs. If Team A's next game is against Team C, bet Team C."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +20.39 units from 590 bets (ROI = 3.5%)
In 2019: -0.10 units from 61 bets (ROI = 1.8%)

Since the Mets crushed the D-Backs by a 10-run margin yesterday, we are betting against them today.

It is also based on the "Hot Teams Matchup" and "The Hot Bats" systems.

Enjoy your day!

Professor MJ

[ProfessorMJ]

We have won 4 of our past 5 picks of the day, let's keep it up!

RECORD:

Bets won = 11
Bets lost = 9
Profit = +4.50$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

Giants (at -215 or 1.465) vs Marlins

This pick is based on "The Scoring Drought" betting angle:

"Suppose a team loses 2 straight games, while scoring 0-1-2 run(s) in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is greater than 2.50 (so you bet a home favorite)."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +26.99 units from 332 bets (ROI = 8.1%)
In 2019: +2.72 units from 33 bets (ROI = 8.2%)

Since Miami has lost its past two games by scoring just 0 and 2 runs respectively, and they are fairly big road underdogs, we are betting against them.

Have a good Saturday!

Professor MJ

[ProfessorMJ]

RECORD:

Bets won = 11
Bets lost = 10
Profit = +3.50$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

Padres (at +111 or 2.11) at Rockies

This play meets the criteria of 2 betting angles at a time. Under such circumstances, our ROI (Return On Investment) tripled in 2019 compared to the case where a pick met the criteria of a single betting strategy.

One of these two systems is called "The Pummeled Pitchers" betting angle:

"Bet the road team if it has lost... a) its past 2 games by allowing 9+ runs in each meeting; b) its past 3 games by allowing 7+ runs in each meeting (unless their money line is greater than 3.0); c) its past 4 games by allowing 6+ runs in each meeting."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +37.58 units from 253 bets (ROI = 14.9%)

Since San Diego is on the road and has lost its past two games by allowing 11 and 10 runs respectively, we are betting them this afternoon.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[ProfessorMJ]

RECORD:

Bets won = 11
Bets lost = 10
Profit = +3.50$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

Padres (at +111 or 2.11) at Rockies

This play meets the criteria of 2 betting angles at a time. Under such circumstances, our ROI (Return On Investment) tripled in 2019 compared to the case where a pick met the criteria of a single betting strategy.

One of these two systems is called "The Pummeled Pitchers" betting angle:

"Bet the road team if it has lost... a) its past 2 games by allowing 9+ runs in each meeting; b) its past 3 games by allowing 7+ runs in each meeting (unless their money line is greater than 3.0); c) its past 4 games by allowing 6+ runs in each meeting."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +37.58 units from 253 bets (ROI = 14.9%)

Since San Diego is on the road and has lost its past two games by allowing 11 and 10 runs respectively, we are betting them this afternoon.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

Odds are now at +100 or 2.00