Cnotes MLB 2019 Thru the World Series News, Notes, Trends Best Bets and Opinions !

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Playoff Series Odds

Home Team listed first - Best of 7 Games (2-3-2)
(Opening Odds in parentheses)

National League Championship Series

Series Odds - St. Louis vs. Washington
Team Opening Odds
Cardinals +100
Nationals -120

Exact Game Prices

St. Louis vs. Washington


American League Championship Series

Series Odds - Houston vs. New York
Team Opening Odds
Astros -185
Yankees +155

Exact Game Prices

Houston vs. New York


National League Divisional Series

Series Odds - Atlanta vs. St. Louis (Cardinals win 3-2)
Team Opening Odds Prior to Game 2 Prior to Game 3 Prior to Game 4 Prior to Game 5
Braves -120 +175 -120 -450 -104
Cardinals +100 -200 +100 +350 -103

Series Odds - Los Angeles vs. Washington (Nationals win 3-2)
Team Opening Odds Prior to Game 2 Prior to Game 3 Prior to Game 4 Prior to Game 5
Dodgers -240 -425 -180 -425 -170
Nationals +190 +325 +150 +325 +150


American League Divisional Series

Series Odds - New York vs. Minnesota (Yankees win 3-0)
Team Opening Odds Prior to Game 2 Prior to Game 3
Yankees -245 -500 -6000
Twins +210 +395 +1600

Series Odds - Houston vs. Tampa Bay (Series tied 2-2)
Team Opening Odds Prior to Game 2 Prior to Game 3 Prior to Game 4 Prior to Game 5
Astros -250 -900 -10000 -2000 -290
Rays +200 +600 +2000 +1000 +200

Exact Game Prices

Atlanta vs. St. Louis
Cardinals Win in 3 Games +750
Cardinals Win in 4 Games +350
Cardinals Win in 5 Games +390 WIN
Braves Win in 3 Games +550
Braves Win in 4 Games +400
Braves Win in 5 Games +370

Los Angeles vs. Washington
Nationals Win in 3 Games +950
Nationals Win in 4 Games +540
Nationals Win in 5 Games +545 WIN
Dodgers Win in 3 Games +440
Dodgers Win in 4 Games +275
Dodgers Win in 5 Games +295

New York vs. Minnesota
Twins Win in 3 Games +1450
Twins Win in 4 Games +575
Twins Win in 5 Games +600
Yankees Win in 3 Games +325 WIN
Yankees Win in 4 Games +270
Yankees Win in 5 Games +300

Houston vs. Tampa Bay
Rays Win in 3 Games +1750
Rays Win in 4 Games +750
Rays Win in 5 Games +675
Astros Win in 3 Games +265
Astros Win in 4 Games +240
Astros Win in 5 Games +315 WIN

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LEADING OFF: Nats, Cards open NLCS, Yanks-Astros set in ALCS
October 10, 2019
By The Associated Press

A look at what's happening around the majors today:

WELCOME TO THE NLCS

The Washington Nationals play in the NL Championship Series for the first time, taking on St. Louis at Busch Stadium. Anibal Sanchez starts for the Nats against Miles Mikolas.

Both teams won a deciding Game 5 on the road in the NL Division Series. The Cardinals scored 10 runs in the first inning and romped past Atlanta 13-1 while Washington rallied late and beat the Dodgers 7-3 in 10 innings.

Nationals aces Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin all got plenty of work in the NLDS. Sanchez was 11-8 with a 3.85 ERA this season, then gave up one run in five innings in his lone appearance against Los Angeles.

Washington manager Dave Martinez says he hasn't decided how he will line up the rest of his starting staff after Sanchez. Cardinals manager Mike Shildt said Adam Wainwright will start Game 2, followed by Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson, who will be available out of the bullpen at the beginning of the series.

MAMMOTH MATCHUP

Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and the Houston Astros are set to meet Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees in a highly anticipated AL Championship Series beginning Saturday night at Minute Maid Park.

The pitching-rich Astros led the majors with 107 wins, and are expected to start Zack Greinke in the opener. The Yankees posted 103 victories and could go with either James Paxton or Masahiro Tanaka in Game 1.

These teams have recently met in the playoffs. Houston won the 2015 AL wild-card game at Yankee Stadium, and also topped New York in a seven-game ALCS in 2017 on the way to its first World Series title.

The Astros went 4-3 against the Yankees this season.

REVVED REDBIRDS

No telling what Cardinals manager Mike Shildt might say in the closed - and camera-free - locker room to fire up his team before the NLCS opener. Usually mild mannered, his curse-filled clubhouse victory speech after St. Louis battered Atlanta in the NLDS clincher went viral when a player posted it on social media.

Shildt was sorry his colorful language got leaked, but didn't feel bad about the gist of his message.

''It's regretful that that was able to get out,'' Shildt said Thursday, a day after the 13-1 romp. ''I will not apologize for having passion about how I feel about our team and the accomplishments of our team.''

The video was posted by Cardinals rookie Randy Arozarena. Shildt said he harbored no ill will toward the 24-year-old outfielder.

''As far as Randy goes,'' Shildt said, ''I completely give Randy grace. He was just excited. He's a great kid with a great heart.''

CHECK THEM

The Nationals will see how catcher Kurt Suzuki and outfielder Victor Robles are feeling before Game 1. Manager Dave Martinez said X-rays showed nothing broken on the hand of Suzuki, who was hit by a pitch Wednesday night. The ball ricocheted and hit Suzuki in the head - he was going to go through concussion protocol in St. Louis. Robles, who missed the last two games of the series against the Dodgers with a strained right hamstring, will be examined to determine his status.

VACANCY

The Phillies have become the eighth team to head into the offseason looking for a new manager. They fired Gabe Kapler, nearly two weeks after a disappointing finish to a season of big expectations highlighted by Bryce Harper's arrival.

Kapler went 161-163 in two years, his team unable to deliver following its offseason spending spree. Philadelphia finished 81-81, its first nonlosing season since 2012.

The skipper carousel has been spinning. San Francisco's Bruce Bochy and Kansas City's Ned Yost retired, San Diego's Andy Green, Pittsburgh's Clint Hurdle, the Mets' Mickey Callaway and the Angels' Brad Ausmus were fired, and the Cubs and Joe Maddon jointly said he would leave.

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 11
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

WAS at STL 08:08 PM

STL -127

O 8.0

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Nats' AnÃ*bal Sánchez working on no-hitter in Game 1 of NLCS
October 11, 2019
By The Associated Press

ST. LOUIS (AP) Washington Nationals right-hander Anibal Sanchez lost his no-hit bid with two outs in the eighth inning on a clean single by St. Louis Cardinals pinch-hitter Jose Martinez in Game 1 of the NL Championship Series.

Martinez lined an 82 mph split-finger fastball into center field, spoiling Sanchez's shot at the third no-hitter in postseason history. Two batters earlier, first baseman Ryan Zimmerman preserved the bid by diving to catch a line drive by Tommy Edman.

Nationals manager Dave Martinez pulled Sanchez after the hit and brought in left-hander Sean Doolittle. Sanchez struck out five, hit two batters and walked one on 103 pitches. The right-handed Sanchez waved to standing fans in St. Louis as he left the field.

Doolittle pitched cleanly out of the eighth to preserve a 2-0 lead. The Nationals are without closer Daniel Hudson, who was placed on paternity leave earlier Friday.

Sanchez retired his first 10 batters before Kolten Wong walked in the fourth for St. Louis' first baserunner. He stole second and went to third on catcher Yan Gomes' throwing error, but Marcell Ozuna fouled out to end the inning.

Sanchez got a break in the fifth when Matt Carpenter tipped a 1-2 pitch that bounced off the dirt and into Gomes' mitt. Carpenter briefly argued the ball wasn't caught cleanly, but it was ruled a strikeout - that play can't be reviewed.

The 35-year-old Sanchez pitched a no-hitter as a rookie with the Florida Marlins in 2006. He also threw six hitless innings in the opener of the 2013 AL Championship Series for Detroit against Boston but was pulled after 116 pitches. The Tigers bullpen finished a one-hitter in a 1-0 victory.

Don Larsen threw a perfect game for the New York Yankees against Brooklyn in the 1956 World Series, and Roy Halladay pitched a no-hitter for the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2010 NL Division Series.

[StarDust Bum]

SCHEDULE FOR SATURDAY OCTOBER 12, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
4:08 PM Washington Nationals St. Louis Cardinals Busch Stadium
8:08 PM New York Yankees Houston Astros Minute Maid Park


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MLB PLAYOFF'S OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD.

10/11/2019.......0-2-0..........0.00%......-11.85
10/10/2019.......0-1-1..........0.00%........-5.00
10/09/2019.......3-1-0.........75.00%......+12.10
10/08/2019.......1-1-0.........50.00%......+4.90
10/07/2019.......3-5-0.........37.50%......-11.25
10/06/2019.......1-1-0.........50.00%........-0.50
10/05/2019.......2-1-0.........66.67%.......+5.00
10/04/2019.......3-3-0.........50.00%........-0.50
10/03/2019.......1-3-0.........25.00%........-9.65
10/02/2019.......1-1-0.........50.00%........-1.35
10/01/2019...... 0-2-0........ 0.00%....... -10.50


Totals............15-21-0........ 41.66%...... -28.10


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


10/11/2019.............0 - 1............-6.35................0 - 1............-5.50................-11.85
10/10/2019.............0 - 1............-5.00................0 - 0............+0.00...............-5.00
10/09/2019.............1 - 0............+7.60...............1 - 1............-0.50................+7.10
10/08/2019.............1 - 0............+10.40.............0 - 1............-5.50................+4.90
10/07/2019.............2 - 0............+11.95.............0 - 4.............-22.00..............-10.05
10/06/2019.............0 - 0............+0.00...............1 - 1.............-0.50................-0.50
10/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.00...............2 - 0.............+10.00.............+5.00
10/04/2019.............2 - 1.............+3.45..............3 - 1.............+9.50...............+12.95
10/03/2019.............1 - 1.............+1.35..............0 - 2.............-11.00..............-9.65
10/02/2019.............0 - 1..............-6.35..............1 - 0.............+5.00...............-1.35
10/01/2019.............0 - 1..............-5.00..............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-10.50


Totals.....................7 - 7.............+7.05.............8 - 12.............-26.00...............-18.95

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Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Odds to win the college basketball title next April:

9-2— Michigan State

5-1— Kansas

8-1— Duke, Kentucky, Memphis

12-1— Louisville

15-1— Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia

18-1— Michigan, Villanova


**********

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Random stuff with the weekend here……..

13) Nationals 2, Cardinals 0— St Louis scored ten runs in the top of the first inning Wednesday, then they came home and got one hit here.

Anibal Sanchez is the first pitcher EVER to throw 6+ innings and allow one or no hits in two playoff games.

Mike Muchlinski was the home plate ump here; he umped Max Scherzer’s no-hitter in 2015 and also a 2013 game when Sanchez struck out 17 batters.

12) Oregon 45, Colorado 3— Ducks allowed total of 22 points in winning their last four games against I-A opponents. Colorado went in the tank in the second half here.

11) In six games this season, New England opponents have only had four drives (out of 72) where they ran a play in the Patriots’ red zone. New England’s offense has 25 such drives.

10) Steelers’ QB Mason Rudolph is officially out Sunday with a concussion, meaning Devlin Hodges will get his first NFL start; Paxton Lynch was promoted from the practice squad to be the backup QB.

Rams’ CB Aqib Talib (ribs) is out Sunday; Todd Gurley (quad) is doubtful.

Neither of the Cowboys’ starting OT’s practiced Friday. a red flag.

9) Washington Redskins will start Case Keenum at QB Sunday in Miami, in Bill Callahan’s first game as the interim coach. Expect Keenum to hand off a lot.

8) Living in Denver must be weird; at 2pm Wednesday, it was 79 degrees- at 2pm Thursday, it was 24 degrees, the 15th-largest temperature drop in Denver history.

7) MLB sources say that a player who accepts a qualifying offer this winter will get a one-year, $17.8M contract next season, down from $17.9M this year. It’s the first time the value of the qualifying offer has ever dropped from one year to the next.

6) XFL players will earn an average of $55,000, when the new football league starts in February; by way of contrast, the minimum salary in the NFL is $495,000.

5) From Ralph Michaels: Since 2015, home favorites in Game 1 of a baseball playoff series:
— If a favorite of -$135 or less: 3-7
— If a favorite of -$136 or more: 20-3

4) Heard this yesterday and while it isn’t new news, it does raise an eyebrow; UNLV’s basketball team hasn’t been in the NCAA’s since 2013. Long time. 30 years ago, UNLV basketball was like Gonzaga is now; a huge fish in a tiny pond (Big West Conference) that more than held its own nationally. Gonzaga is in the WCC, also a fairly small pond

3) Red Sox led the major leagues this year, winning eight (out of 45) games where they trailed by 4+ runs at some point in the game.

Minnesota was the only team that didn’t win a game (0-35) when they trailed by 4+ runs.

2) NFL coaches are 1-21 on pass interference challenges; NFL appeased the Saints by putting in a rule they don’t seem to want to enforce. Go figure.

1) RIP to the outstanding actor Robert Forster, 78, who passed away Friday; I remember him most from the terrific movie Jackie Brown, where he played a bail bondsman, and also from a 2-part episode of Magnum PI, where he played an old Army buddy of Magnum. RIP, sir.

[StarDust Bum]

ALCS - Yankees vs. Astros
Kevin Rogers

2019 Head-to-Head Matchups (Houston 4-3, Over 5-2)

New York vs. Houston (Minute Maid Park)
April 8 – Astros 4, Yankees 3 (Under 8)
April 9 – Astros 6, Yankees 3 (Over 8)
April 10 – Astros 8, Yankees 6 (Over 8)

Houston vs. New York (Yankee Stadium)
June 20 – Yankees 10, Astros 6 (Over 10)
June 21 – Yankees 4, Astros 1 (Under 9)
June 22 – Yankees 7, Astros 5 (Over 10)
June 23 – Astros 9, Yankees 4 (Over 10)

The National League Championship Series matchup between the Cardinals and Nationals wasn’t expected when the season began. The American League Championship Series pits the Yankees and Astros, who were expected to hook up for the pennant before the season started.

New York (103-59) won its first AL East title since 2012, while coming off its second consecutive 100-victory season. The Yankees were bounced in the ALDS by the rival Red Sox last October in four games, but New York made quick work of Minnesota this time around in a three-game sweep of the AL Central champions.

The Bronx Bombers outscored the Twins, 18-6 in a pair of home blowouts before New York knocked out Minnesota, 5-1 in Game 3 at Target Field. Shortstop Didi Gregorious led the Yankees with six runs batted in during the series, including a grand slam in the Game 2 rout. Five different Yankees homered in the series, but none of those came off the bat of slugger Aaron Judge, who has drilled seven postseason homers in his short career.

The three starting pitchers for the Yankees against Minnesota all lasted five innings or less as the bullpen received plenty of work. Masahiro Tanaka (11-9, 4.45 ERA) shut down the Twins in Game 2 of the ALDS by striking out seven and scattering three hits in five innings of an 8-2 triumph. Since June 11, the Yankees are 15-4 in Tanaka’s past 19 starts, as the veteran gets the call in Game 1 of the ALCS. New York owns a 1-1 record in Tanaka’s two outings as a road underdog this season, including in a 4-3 setback at Minute Maid Park to the Astros on April 8. Tanaka allowed only one run in six innings and left with a 3-1 lead, but Houston rallied for three runs against the New York bullpen.

Southpaw James Paxton (15-6, 3.82 ERA) is unbeaten in his last 12 starts for New York, while picking up a no-decision in a 10-4 victory over Minnesota in the ALDS opener. The Yankees are 6-0 in Paxton’s past six road outings, as the left-hander split a pair of starts against the Astros this season. Paxton was tagged for five runs in four innings of an 8-6 setback at Minute Maid Park in April, but rebounded for a 4-1 home victory over the Astros in June even though he tossed just five innings.

Luis Severino (1-1, 1.50 ERA) won a career-high 19 games last season, but a rotator cuff issue sidelined the Yankees’ right-hander until September. Severino never pitched past the fifth inning in four starts, but he allowed a total of two earned runs in 16 innings of work, while the Yankees own a 16-3 record in his past 19 home starts since the beginning of 2018. Last season, Severino dominated the Astros by yielding two earned runs and striking out 21 batters in 16 innings as New York beat Houston twice.

The Astros (107-55) are coming off their best regular season in franchise history as Houston is headed to its third consecutive ALCS. Back in 2017, the Astros claimed their first ever championship by outlasting the Dodgers in seven games, one round after beating the Yankees in seven games. However, Houston fell short of its second consecutive pennant by losing in five games to eventual champion Boston.

The Astros were cruising past the Rays in the ALDS by winning the first two games at home easily, but Tampa Bay forced a Game 5 with a pair of home victories. Houston finished the job in Game 5 at Minute Maid Park with four runs in the first inning of a 6-1 triumph as A.J. Hinch’s club is playing in a third consecutive LCS for the first time in franchise history.

Houston’s triple threat on the mound is as intimidating as any in recent memory. The Astros have the two top Cy Young candidates in Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, but since they pitched in the final two games of the Rays’ series, it will be Zack Greinke taking the mound in Game 1.

Greinke (18-5, 2.93 ERA) would be an ace on nearly every other team in baseball, but he has taken a backseat to Verlander and Cole after getting acquired from Arizona at the trade deadline in July. The former Cy Young winner was racked for six runs in 3.2 innings in Game 3 of the ALDS at Tampa Bay in a 10-3 defeat. Greinke’s two worst starts since joining the Astros came against the Rays, as he allowed five runs in a 9-8 home defeat in late August. Houston owns an 8-3 record in Greinke’s 11 starts, including a 3-1 mark at Minute Maid Park. In Greinke’s final start as a member of the Diamondbacks, he picked up a no-decision in a 7-5 loss to the Yankees in which he gave up two runs in five innings.

Verlander (21-6, 2.58 ERA) put together polar opposite starts in the ALDS as he yielded only one hit in seven innings of a 6-2 triumph in Game 1. However, the Rays got to the former MVP and Cy Young winner in Game 4 by scoring four runs off Verlander in less than four innings of a 4-1 defeat by the Astros. Since losing to the Tigers as a -500 favorite on August 21, the Astros are 7-2 in Verlander’s past nine starts, while Houston is 13-5 in his 18 outings at Minute Maid Park. The Astros won both of Verlander’s starts against the Yankees this season, while Houston is 5-1 against New York with him on the mound since 2017.

Cole (20-5, 2.50 ERA) has been the best pitcher in baseball since mid-July as Houston has won 15 consecutive starts made by the former UCLA standout. Seven of those wins came away from Minute Maid Park, as the right-hander will start Game 3 of the ALCS. Cole dominated Tampa Bay in the ALDS by striking out 25 batters and allowing six hits and one run in 15.2 innings of work. Cole is riding an 11-start streak of double-digit strikeouts, while receiving a no-decision in his lone start against the Yankees back in April. The former Pirates’ hurler tossed seven innings and gave up three runs as the Astros rallied for a 6-3 win, marking the only start he has made against New York since being acquired by Houston in 2018.

The Astros and Yankees are meeting in the playoffs for only the second time ever as Houston edged New York in seven games back in 2017. In that series, the home team won all seven contests, while the Yankees were limited to three runs in four losses at Minute Maid Park. The Yankees are seeking their first World Series appearance since 2009 when they topped the Phillies in six games.

[StarDust Bum]

903NY YANKEES -904 HOUSTON
NY YANKEES are 20-5 SU (17.5 Units) vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.

905WASHINGTON -906 ST LOUIS
WASHINGTON is 29-11 SU (18.7 Units) vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season in the current season.




MLB
Dunkel

Saturday, October 12


Washington @ St. Louis

Game 905-906
October 12, 2019 @ 4:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Scherzer) 19.070
St. Louis
(Wainwrght) 17.426
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-145
7
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-145); Over

NY Yankees @ Houston

Game 903-904
October 12, 2019 @ 8:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Tanaka) 16.416
Houston
(Greinke) 17.521
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-160
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-160); Under




MLB
Long Sheet

Saturday, October 12

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NY YANKEES (106 - 59) at HOUSTON (110 - 57) - 8:08 PM
MASAHIRO TANAKA (R) vs. ZACK GREINKE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 66-58 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
GREINKE is 66-30 (+20.4 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 153-82 (+48.8 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 117-59 (+40.6 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
NY YANKEES are 106-59 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY YANKEES are 48-27 (+20.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 297-320 (-62.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday since 1997.
HOUSTON is 71-46 (-9.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 91-73 (-19.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 21-20 (-16.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GREINKE is 17-20 (-10.8 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-3 (+1.0 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.7 Units)

MASAHIRO TANAKA vs. HOUSTON since 1997
TANAKA is 1-4 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.06 and a WHIP of 1.237.
His team's record is 4-6 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-5. (-0.5 units)

ZACK GREINKE vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
GREINKE is 4-4 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.52 and a WHIP of 1.285.
His team's record is 5-7 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-4. (+2.7 units)

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WASHINGTON (98 - 71) at ST LOUIS (94 - 74) - 4:08 PM
MAX SCHERZER (R) vs. ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 5-3 (+2.9 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.8 Units)

MAX SCHERZER vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
SCHERZER is 2-6 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.31 and a WHIP of 1.075.
His team's record is 5-6 (-3.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-3. (+2.9 units)

ADAM WAINWRIGHT vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
WAINWRIGHT is 10-4 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.54 and a WHIP of 1.332.
His team's record is 11-6 (+3.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-7. (-0.2 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, October 12

American League
New York @ Astros
Paxton is 10-0, 2.88 in his last 12 starts, 0-0, 7.94 in his last two; he is 8-4, 3.24 in 14 starts vs Houston, and is 0-0, 5.79 in one playoff start.

Greinke is 4-1, 3.41 in his last five starts; he is 4-4, 5.05 in 15 games (12 starts) vs NYY, and is 3-5, 4.58 in 12 playoff starts.

New York lost the ALCS to Houston two years ago; they haven’t been in a World Series since 2009. NYY hasn’t played since Monday; they allowed only seven runs in their 3-0 sweep of the Twins.

Astros are in ALCS for third year in a row; they won 2017 World Series, but needed Game 5 to advance past Tampa Bay Thursday. Home teams won six of seven NY-Houston games this year, with Astros winning all three games played here.

National League
Nationals (1-0) @ Cardinals
Scherzer is 2-0, 3.79 in his last four games (3 starts); he is 2-6, 3.31 in 11 starts vs St Louis, and is 5-5, 3.60 in 19 playoff games (15 starts).

Wainwright is 5-1, 2.66 in his last seven starts; he is 10-4, 3.10 in 17 games (15 starts) vs Washington, and is 4-4, 2.79 in 25 playoff games (13 starts).

Washington won the NLDS in dramatic fashion Wednesday, they’re 12-2 in last 14 games overall, and are in NLCS for the time since 1981, when they were the Montreal Expos. Nationals are 2-5 vs St Louis this season, losing three of four games here.

St Louis is in the playoffs for first time in four years, after making it every year from 2011-15. Cardinals are in NLCS for first time since 2014.




MLB

Saturday, October 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of St. Louis's last 10 games
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games at home
St. Louis is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Washington
St. Louis is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing Washington
St. Louis is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
Washington Nationals
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
Washington is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis

Houston Astros
Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Houston is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home
Houston is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
Houston is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
New York Yankees
NY Yankees is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
NY Yankees is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games
NY Yankees is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games on the road
NY Yankees is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing Houston
NY Yankees is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
NY Yankees is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Houston

[StarDust Bum]

POSTSEASON STARTER STAT OF THE DAY

Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals (14-10, 4.19 ERA, $486): Wainwright is obviously the elder statesman of the Cardinals rotation and they’re banking on his postseason experience giving them an edge in Game 2. The right-hander has a career 2.79 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 25 postseason appearances. While in the NLCS he owns a 2.51 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. He can keep the Nats Under their team total in this one.


3 STRIKES

SCHERZER VS A PAIR OF STREAKING SLUGGERS

The Cardinals top two sluggers both had an incredible series against the Braves in the NLDS. Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna went a combined 18 for 42 at the plate, with seven doubles and four homers.

Over his career though, Goldschmidt has been absolutely owned by Scherzer. The six-time All-Star has just two hits (both singles) and one walk in 25 at bats against Scherzer. Ozuna has more success against Scherzer; racking up 10 hits, including two homers and five doubles in 36 plate appearances versus the Nationals flame-thrower.

BLUSTERY AT BUSCH?

It will be a little warmer for Game 2 of the NLCS after a bit of a chilly night in St. Louis for Game 1. Temperatures are forecast in the high 50’s for game time, but bettors should take note that hitters could be given a hand by mother nature in this one. There is expected to be a 10 mile per hour wind gusting straight out to center field. The total is currently 7.

BUCKING THE CS TRENDS

Both the Yankees and Astros don’t have pleasant experiences in the Championship Series. The Astros are 0-4 in their last four League Championship games after dropping four straight to Boston last season, while the Yankees are just 2-12 in their last 14 ALCS road games. With the home team claiming six of the seven meetings between these two juggernauts, we’re leaning towards the Astros in Game 1.

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 12
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

WAS at STL 04:08 PM
STL +117
U 7.5

NYY at HOU 08:08 PM
HOU -158
O 9.0

[StarDust Bum]

Astros' added ace Greinke drops 2nd playoff start in ALCS G1
October 12, 2019
By The Associated Press

HOUSTON (AP) Houston's added ace is still looking for his first playoff win with the Astros after getting taken deep again.

At least the Astros have two All-Star pitchers lined up next after the New York Yankees tagged Zack Greinke in the AL Championship Series opener.

Greinke allowed two home runs in a span of three batters in the sixth inning Saturday night, and the Yankees went on to a 7-0 win at Minute Maid Park - where they lost all four games in their last ALCS appearance two years ago.

Already with Justin Verlander and big league strikeout leader Gerrit Cole, the Astros added Greinke, a six-time All-Star and 2009 AL Cy Young Award winner, in a somewhat shocking deal moments before the July 31 trade deadline.

After Verlander and Cole dominated the Tampa Bay Rays in the first two games of the AL Division Series, it was Greinke's turn in the postseason. He allowed three homers and six runs in 3 2/3 innings of a 10-3 loss to the Rays.

That prompted manager AJ Hinch to try to close out that series with Verlander on short rest in Game 4. When that didn't work, Cole had to pitch the decisive Game 5 against Tampa Bay only two nights before the ALCS started against the rested Yankees.

Verlander will be on regular rest for Game 2 on Sunday night. He also pitched the second game of the 2017 ALCS against the Yankees, a 124-pitch complete game when the Astros scored in the bottom of the ninth for their second consecutive 2-1 win to start that series.

Cole will go in Game 3 at New York on Tuesday night.

Greinke has allowed five homers and nine runs over 9 2/3 innings in his two playoff starts for the Astros, and his ERA in 13 career postseason starts remains at 4.58 - more than a run higher than his regular season mark. That was after going 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA in his 10 starts for them in the regular season, with only six homers allowed in 62 2/3 innings.

The Astros traded four prospects to get Greinke on the same day he made his last start for the Arizona Diamondbacks, at Yankee Stadium in a game Masahiro Tanaka started for New York. Both got no-decisions in that game, a 7-5 win by the Yankees in which Greinke struck out seven and allowed two runs over five innings. Greinke was in the visiting clubhouse after the rain-shortened outing when he learned he'd be dealt.

Tanaka was also on the mound Saturday night, benefiting from two double plays to face the minimum 18 batters through his six innings. He allowed only a single and a leadoff walk in the fifth to Alex Bregman, who slipped trying to get back to first and got doubled up on a strong throw by Aaron Judge after his running catch in the right-center gap.

Greinke allowed three runs and seven hits over six innings. He struck out six without a walk.

The Astros suffered their first home shutout loss since June 27 and ended a streak of 30 consecutive games with a home run. They had homered in their first five playoff games after going deep in the last 25 games of the regular season, in the same year that the Yankees set a major league record by homering in 31 games in a row.


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Scherzer working another Nats' no-hit bid in NLCS Game 2
October 12, 2019
By The Associated Press

ST. LOUIS (AP) Washington Nationals ace Max Scherzer lost his no-hit bid on Paul Goldschmidt's clean single leading off the seventh inning in Game 2 of the NL Championship Series against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Goldschmidt's line drive dropped in front of left fielder Juan Soto, who played the ball conservatively with Washington clinging to a 1-0 lead. Scherzer got a strikeout and a double play to end the inning.

Washington won 2-0 in Game 1 behind Anibal Sanchez, who allowed the Cardinals' only hit of the night with two out in the eighth inning.

Scherzer walked Kolten Wong in the first and Dexter Fowler in the sixth for St. Louis' only baserunners before Goldschmidt. The three-time Cy Young Award winner has struck out 11 through seven innings.

Scherzer, a St. Louis native, has a record five career postseason no-hit bids of at least five innings, according to Elias Sports. He came closest to finishing in Game 3 of the 2017 NL Division Series, getting one out in the seventh inning before allowing a hit.

Sanchez and Scherzer also began the 2013 ALCS with consecutive no-hit bids of at least five innings for Detroit against Boston.

There have only been two postseason no-hitters. Don Larsen threw a perfect game for the New York Yankees against Brooklyn in the 1956 World Series, and Roy Halladay pitched a no-hitter for the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2010 NL Division Series.

Washington led 1-0 on Saturday on Michael A. Taylor's homer on Adam Wainwright's first pitch of the third inning.

[StarDust Bum]

SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY OCTOBER 13, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:08 PM New York Yankees Houston Astros Minute Maid Park


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MLB PLAYOFF'S OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD.

10/12/2019.......1-3-0........25.00%......-13.40
10/11/2019.......0-2-0..........0.00%......-11.85
10/10/2019.......0-1-1..........0.00%........-5.00
10/09/2019.......3-1-0.........75.00%......+12.10
10/08/2019.......1-1-0.........50.00%......+4.90
10/07/2019.......3-5-0.........37.50%......-11.25
10/06/2019.......1-1-0.........50.00%........-0.50
10/05/2019.......2-1-0.........66.67%.......+5.00
10/04/2019.......3-3-0.........50.00%........-0.50
10/03/2019.......1-3-0.........25.00%........-9.65
10/02/2019.......1-1-0.........50.00%........-1.35
10/01/2019...... 0-2-0........ 0.00%....... -10.50


Totals............16-24-0........ 40.00%...... -41.50


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

10/12/2019.............0 - 1............-5.00................1 - 1............-0.50................-5.50
10/11/2019.............0 - 1............-6.35................0 - 1............-5.50................-11.85
10/10/2019.............0 - 1............-5.00................0 - 0............+0.00...............-5.00
10/09/2019.............1 - 0............+7.60...............1 - 1............-0.50................+7.10
10/08/2019.............1 - 0............+10.40.............0 - 1............-5.50................+4.90
10/07/2019.............2 - 0............+11.95.............0 - 4.............-22.00..............-10.05
10/06/2019.............0 - 0............+0.00...............1 - 1.............-0.50................-0.50
10/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.00...............2 - 0.............+10.00.............+5.00
10/04/2019.............2 - 1.............+3.45..............3 - 1.............+9.50...............+12.95
10/03/2019.............1 - 1.............+1.35..............0 - 2.............-11.00..............-9.65
10/02/2019.............0 - 1..............-6.35..............1 - 0.............+5.00...............-1.35
10/01/2019.............0 - 1..............-5.00..............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-10.50


Totals.....................7 - 8.............+2.05.............9 - 13.............-26.50...............-24.45

[StarDust Bum]

LEADING OFF: Paxton vs Verlander in ALCS, day off for NLCS
October 12, 2019
By The Associated Press

A look at what's happening around the majors Sunday:

Justin Verlander starts for Houston in Game 2 of the AL Championship Series, trying to even the best-of-seven matchup with the Yankees. New York won the opener 7-0 at Minute Maid Park behind Gleyber Torres' hitting and Masahiro Tanaka's pitching.

Verlander topped the majors with 21 wins this season and is 14-8 with a 3.20 ERA in postseason play. But he wasn't at his best in his last start, chased in the fourth inning at Tampa Bay when the Astros had a chance to clinch the AL Division Series. That game came when Verlander started on three days' rest - he'd done that just once before, after a rain-shortened outing in the 2011 playoffs.

Verlander will be on regular rest when he faces James Paxton. The New York lefty made his first postseason start last week in the ALDS opener against the Twins and was driven out in the fifth inning.

TAKE A BREAK

Stephen Strasburg and his Washington teammates get a day off before resuming the NL Championship Series with a 2-0 lead. Strasburg starts Game 3 on Monday night at Nationals Park against Jack Flaherty and the Cardinals.

Starters Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez and the Washington relievers allowed a total of four hits while winning the first two games at Busch Stadium.

DEAD-BALL OCTOBER

Cardinals manager Mike Shildt and St. Louis' analytics department are wondering what happened to the juiced baseball. Shildt said the team's front office has found the ball is flying 4 + fewer feet on average in the postseason, raising more questions about the makeup of the baseballs after hitters clubbed a record 6,776 home runs in the regular season - a rise attributed to unusually far-flying balls.

The numbers don't leave much doubt, says data journalist Rob Arthur. He was among the first to suggest tweaks to the ball may have caused home runs to spike as early as 2015, and he thinks something is off with this year's October model, too. Arthur published a story Thursday at Baseball Prospectus showing the postseason balls have more air resistance than the regular season balls, according to data pulled from MLB's own tracking system. Arthur projected home runs were down 50% through Wednesday's games compared to what would have been expected in the 2019 scoring environment.

Major League Baseball released a statement Thursday claiming the balls haven't changed since the regular season.

[StarDust Bum]

Cards' front office says playoff baseballs have lost juice
October 12, 2019
By The Associated Press

The St. Louis Cardinals' front office says baseballs have suddenly lost their juice this postseason, supporting a claim from a prominent data scientist that the balls have changed following a historic, homer-friendly regular season.

Cardinals manager Mike Shildt said Saturday that St. Louis' analytics department has found the ball is flying 4 + fewer feet on average in the postseason. Players in both leagues have been stunned when hard-hit balls have fallen on the warning track this month, raising more questions about the makeup of the baseballs after hitters clubbed a record 6,776 home runs in the regular season - a rise attributed to unusually far-flying balls.

''I mean there's probably all kind of different theories behind that that I won't really get into,'' Shildt said before a 3-1 loss to Washington in Game 2 of the NL Championship Series. ''Just the fact of the matter, it could be any number of things.''

The numbers don't leave much doubt, says data journalist Rob Arthur. He was among the first to suggest tweaks to the ball may have caused home runs to spike as early as 2015, and he thinks something is off with this year's October model, too.

Arthur published a story Thursday at Baseball Prospectus showing the postseason balls have more air resistance than the regular season balls, according to data pulled from MLB's own tracking system. Arthur projected home runs were down 50% through Wednesday's games compared to what would have been expected in the 2019 scoring environment, even though the average temperature for playoff games was higher than the regular season to that point.

''The data is conclusive in showing that the playoff baseball is very different from the one used in the regular season,'' Arthur wrote.

Major League Baseball released a statement Thursday claiming no meaningful changes have been.

''The baseballs used in Major League Baseball are manufactured in batches,'' it said. ''Balls that are used in the postseason are pulled from the same batches as balls used in the regular season. Regular season and postseason balls are manufactured with the same materials and under the same processes. The only difference is the postseason stamp that is placed on the ball. As has been previously acknowledged, however, the drag of the baseball can vary over different time periods.''

Fueled partly by studies from Arthur and others, players and observers have become distrustful of the ball in recent years. Houston Astros ace Justin Verlander and other pitchers have claimed MLB juiced the balls intentionally to boost scoring, creating a cascade of side effects including increased strikeouts and an abandonment of small-ball strategies like stolen bases and bunting.

Commissioner Rob Manfred has denied deliberately adjusting the baseball but has acknowledged this year's ball had less drag, leading to more home runs. Manfred recently reconvened scientists from an MLB-commissioned 2018 study of the baseballs, and he plans to issue a report on their most recent findings after the World Series.

Shildt revealed his front office's conclusion after being asked about a hard-hit flyout by Cardinals slugger Marcell Ozuna in Game 1 of the NLCS a night earlier. Ozuna crushed a ball to center field off Washington's Anibal Sanchez, and Shildt was surprised when it was caught short of the warning track.

''I thought Ozuna got his ball, based on the sound, based on the swing,'' Shildt said. ''But clearly it didn't get out.''

Ozuna hit the ball 105.8 mph and with a 36-degree launch angle - a quality of contact with a 68% home run probability, per MLB's Statcast. A first-pitch temperature of 45 degrees may have been a factor.

Ozuna hasn't been the only batter fooled out of the box. Most notably, Braves youngster Ronald Acuna Jr. was scolded after failing to run out a long fly in the NL Division Series. Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts was confused by a few long flies from his hitters, saying the ball ''seems a little different.''

Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Saturday he hadn't seen Arthur's report or Shildt's comments, but he planned to check with his own analytics team about it.

''I'm going to ask our guys what we've got,'' Boone said. ''There may be a couple of balls in Minnesota that seemed like maybe they could have gone a little further. Whether that's the cooler weather, those kind of things, I don't know. I'm just hearing about this now. I don't know what to make of that.''

Verlander, as outspoken as anybody about the juiced ball, said Saturday he hasn't noticed a change, but said ''who knows?''

''I think MLB just came out with a report they haven't changed, right? I guess we've got to believe that, right?'' he said with a grin.

Houston manager AJ Hinch also said he hadn't noticed a difference, and he didn't seem to care what happened with the baseball.

With one key exception.

''I hope every ball the Yankees hit is deflated,'' he said.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Top six picks for Week 6 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Saints, +1.5 (810)

5) Cowboys, -7 (811)

4) Vikings, -3 (858)

3) Seahawks, -1 (932)

2) Jaguars, -1.5 (1,111)

1) LA Rams, -3 (1,225)

2019 record: 16-13-1


**********

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a football Saturday…….

13) First of all, many thanks to Lamarr, Gregg, my friend Bobby and all the nice people at the MGM Grand sportsbook for an excellent day full of football and food.

MGM Grand sportsbook is a good place; comfortable chairs, big screens, and lot of good food options very nearby (deli, pizza, plus very good hamburgers).

12) South Carolina 20, Georgia 17 OT— This game scrambles the national title picture; Dawgs turned ball over four times (-4), missed a 42-yard FG on the last play of the game.

The loss hurts Notre Dame as much as Georgia, seeing how the Fighting Irish lost in Athens.

11) Oklahoma 34, Texas 27— Game was only 10-3 at halftime; Sooners outgained Texas 511-252, but they were -2 in turnovers. Hurts ran the ball (17 carries/131 yards) better than he threw it (16-28/235 yards), but he is now 32-2 as a college starter.

10) UNLV 34, Vanderbilt 10— Mountain West finishes with a 9-10 SU record against Power 5 conferences this year, despite being an underdog in 18 of the 19 games.

9) Northern Illinois 39, Ohio U 36— Bobcats led 21-10 at halftime, but NIU kicked a 37-yard FG with 0:33 left to post the upset win.

8) Louisville 62, Wake Forest 59— Demon Deacons scored 28 points in the 4th quarter, the most points an ACC team has ever scored in the 4th quarter of a loss.

7) Upsets of the Week:
— Bowling Green (+25) 20, Toledo 7
— South Carolina (+24) 20, Georgia 17 OT
— UNLV (+15) 34, Vanderbilt 10
— Northern Illinois (+7) 39, Ohio U 36
— Louisville (+6.5) 62, Wake Forest 59
— Tennessee (+6.5) 20, Mississippi State 10
— Georgia State (+6.5) 31, Coastal Carolina 21

6) Iowa State 38, West Virginia 14— Next time a big-$$ school hires a new coach (USC, UCLA?) they should hire Iowa State’s Matt Campbell; very good coach.

5) Baylor 33, Texas Tech 30 OT— Bears are 6-0; they tied this game on the last play of regulation. Now the schedule gets a lot harder; they still have to play Oklahoma State, TCU, Oklahoma and Texas. They’re already eligible for a bowl game.

4) Temple 30, Memphis 28— First loss for the 5-1 Tigers, who rallied back from down 23-7 to within 30-28 with 9:58, but that was as close as they got. Total yardage was 492-456 Memphis, but the Tigers turned the ball over four times (-2).

3) Minnesota 34, Nebraska 7— Golden Gophers are 6-0 for the first time since 2003, figure to be ranked in the top 25 next week for the first time in five years; they ran the ball for 322 yards on a 37-degree day and converted 8-13 third down plays.

2) Penn State 17, Iowa 12— Hawkeyes lost 10-3 at Michigan last week; they have serious issues on offense. PSU converted 10-19 on third down, QB Clifford ran ball 16 times for 52 yards, mostly on some of the important third down plays.

6-0 Nittany Lions host Michigan and College GameDay next week.

1) Wisconsin 38, Michigan State 7— If Notre Dame had Wisconsin’s resume, they’d be #1 in the country right now; Badgers have outscored opponents 255-29 with four shutouts, with decisive wins over Michigan and Michigan State- they visit Ohio State October 26.