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AL Wild Card Best Bet
October 3, 2018
By Sportsbetting.ag

AL Wildcard Betting Preview

Oakland A's vs New York Yankees

After watching a Colorado Rockies team show plenty of perseverance and gumption last night to get by the Chicago Cubs in the NL Wildcard game, tonight we get the AL Version of that do-or-die contest and it's one we've all know would happen for weeks.

Oakland and New York were locked in this matchup for the last few weeks of the year, it just became a matter of where the game would be played. The Yankees ended up holding onto that home field advantage, and hopefully for their sake they can do more with it than the offensively starved Chicago Cubs did 24 hours ago. The Oakland A's won't be an easy out though, and while Oakland doesn't have the experience of being in this contest a year ago like New York does, these A's have outperformed expectations all season long and would love to do it at least one more time.

Sportsbetting Odds:Oakland (+170) vs New York (-180); Total set at 8.5

2018 Head-to-Head Matchups (Series Tied 3-3, Over 4-2)

New York vs. Oakland (Yankee Stadium)
May 11 Athletics (+170) 10 Yankees 5 (Over 9.5)
May 12 Yankees (-185) 7 Athletics 6 (Over 9)
May 13 Yankees (-300) 6 Athletics 2 (Under 8.5)

Oakland vs. New York (Oakland Coliseum)
Sept 3 Atheltics (-115) 6 Yankees 3 (Over 8.5)
Sept 4 Yankees (-125) 5 Athletics 1 (Under 8)
Sept 5 Athletics (+140) 8 Yankees 2 (Over 7.5)

2018 in MLB became the year the world was formally introduced to the “opener” role for pitching staffs and teams had varying levels of success with it. For those that don't know, an “opener” is essentially using a pitcher like you would a closer, just at the beginning of the game. Get one or two innings out of the “opener” and turn things over to the bullpen – long man or not – and hope a victory follows. Tampa Bay was the most frequent team to employ this strategy and had they not been an AL East team, we would have been talking much more about their playoff chances during September. But tonight it's Oakland's turn to use that method and you have to say it's kind of fitting for the organization known for it's analytical and out of the box approach thanks to “Moneyball” to be the first one to really use it in a playoff game. Needless to say, Oakland's result tonight will be keenly watched by all the other MLB teams across the nation.

The A's have decided to go this route for the Wildcard game more out of necessity than simply wanting to try it, as a couple starters went down with injury in September, but should the A's advance to the ALDS after tonight, a strategy that already became more widely adopted as this year went on will be one teams will incorporate in spring training a year ago. From a handicapping perspective, we've never really seen anything like this for playoff baseball and it's role in this game (and the uncertainty of who will follow Liam Hendriks for the A's tonight) is part of the reason why the A's are heavily dogged here.

The Yankees are always going to have the “Yankees tax” applied to their betting lines as an always popular team, but in a one-game, winner-take-all outing, with the TV executives dream matchup (Boston/NYY) on the other side of a New York win here, it's important to try and decipher just how steep that Yankees tax is and if you're willing to pay it.

To start, New York has decided to go with Luis Severino again for this Wildcard game, a spot he was given in this exact spot a year ago and struggled. That may be what many will talk about here, but the Yankees still won that game and Severino has been great for them all year long in 2018. If he can apply the lessons learned from last year's outing (and keep the nerves in check), then going with Severino could actually work out very well for New York here. Severino did get hit hard against this A's team at the beginning of September though (in Oakland) to the tune of 2.2 IP, 6 runs allowed on 6 hits, so it's not like he's going to be completely comfortable out there early on. How he and the Yankees navigate their way through those early innings will be key, and I am of the mindset that New York will get through those innings just fine.

However, I'm not exactly thrilled about laying that price on the Yankees tonight, especially when you consider that all the pressure is on them to advance. They are the 100-win club that was pegged to go a long way this year after falling one-game short of the Fall Classic a year ago, and they are the ones with all the big name, (and high priced) sluggers in their lineup that everyone expects to perform their best in the biggest stages. Sports don't often work out that way though, and with Oakland already deciding that this is going to be a bullpen game, you know that the A's won't hesitate to get what they believe to be favorable matchups in the high leverage situations. We saw Colorado and Chicago do that as their Wildcard game extended into extra innings last night, and I do think we will see the same thing here.

That's why I've got to go with the total tonight and play it 'under' the number. If Severino is on for 5+ innings than the A's are going to be hard-pressed to get more than one or two runs there, while Oakland's staff should keep the Yankees bats at bay. Including last night's Wildcard game, only four of the 13 Wildcard games played since it was introduced in 2012 have finished with 9+ runs scored, and they've never occurred in back-to-back seasons in either league (last year's AL Wildcard game was 8-4).

With both managers able to go out there and get favorable pitching matchups when they want them, I'm banking on both defenses to be the ones to steal the show tonight in a game that finishes 4-3 either way.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Best Bet: Under 8.5 runs

MLB Wild Card History (2012-2018)

Betting Trends:
-- Road Teams have gone 8-5
-- Favorites have gone 7-6
-- The 'under' has gone 7-6

2018 WILD CARD RESULTS

Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
NL Colorado (+130) at Chicago 2-1 Underdog Under (7.5)
2017 WILD CARD RESULTS
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
AL Minnesota at N.Y. Yankees (-255) 8-4 Favorite Over (7.5)
NL Colorado at Arizona (-150) 11-8 Favorite Over (8.5)

2016 WILD CARD RESULTS
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
AL Baltimore at Toronto (-165) 5-2 (11 innings) Favorite Under (8.5)
NL San Francisco (-120) at N.Y. Mets 4-0 Favorite Under (6)

2015 WILD CARD RESULTS
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
AL Houston (-110) at N.Y. Yankees 3-0 Favorite Under (7)
NL Chicago (-125) at Pittsburgh 4-0 Favorite Under (5.5)

2014 WILD CARD RESULTS
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
AL Oakland at Kansas City (+100) 9-8 (12) Underdog Over (6.5)
NL San Francisco (-110) at Pittsburgh 8-0 Favorite Over (6.5)

2013 WILD CARD RESULTS
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
AL Tampa Bay (-110) at Cleveland 6-2 Favorite Over (6.5)
NL Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-145) 4-0 Favorite Under (7)

2012 WILD CARD RESULTS
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
AL Baltimore (+210) at Texas 5-2 Underdog Under 9
NL St. Louis (+155) at Atlanta 6-3 Underdog Over 6.5

[StarDust Bum]

Jackson only starter on A's WC roster
October 3, 2018
By The Associated Press

NEW YORK (AP) Edwin Jackson is the only starting pitcher included on the Oakland Athletics' roster for their AL wild-card game against the New York Yankees.

Right-hander Liam Hendriks will be on the mound for the start of Wednesday night's game, and A's manager Bob Melvin would not say who will follow.

His bullpen includes just one left-hander, Ryan Buchter. The righties in addition to Jackson are closer Blake Treinen, Lou Trivino, Jeurys Familia, Shawn Kelley, Emilio Pagan, Yusmeiro Petit, Fernando Rodney and J.B. Wendelken.

Mike Fiers, among Oakland's few healthy starting pitchers, was left off and if the A's advance would be in position to start an AL Division Series opener at Boston on Friday. When the A's had him make his first relief appearance of the season, on Friday at the Los Angeles Angels, Fiers replaced Trivino in the second and allowed six runs in 3 1/3 innings.

Teams may change rosters after each round.

First baseman Greg Bird was left off the Yankees' roster following a season-long slump, and right-hander Jonathan Holder was picked for the 10th and final pitching spot over left-hander Stephen Tarpley.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone carried three backup catchers, including Kyle Higashioka in addition to starter Gary Sanchez and backup Austin Romine.

Backup infielders include Neil Walker, Adeiny Hechavarria and Tyler Wade.

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 3
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

OAK at NYY 08:08 PM

OAK +182

O 8.5

[StarDust Bum]

Yanks rout A's, face Red Sox next
October 3, 2018

NEW YORK (AP) Aaron Judge got the party started with a two-run homer nine pitches in. Luis Severino let out a primal scream after escaping a bases-loaded jam with 100 mph heat. Giancarlo Stanton capped the mauling with monstrous drive in his postseason debut.

From the first inning on, there was little doubt. Next stop for the Yankees: Fenway Park and the rival Red Sox.

Going ahead quickly against reliever-turned-starter Liam Hendriks, the Yankees pounded the Oakland Athletics 7-2 Wednesday night to win their second straight AL wild-card game.

Severino atoned for flopping in his postseason debut last year, and late-season spark Luke Voit added a two-run triple off Blake Treinen in a four-run sixth, missing a home run by inches. Stanton added 443-foot drive off the Oakland closer in the eighth that landed in left field's second deck, completing a power show by the team that set a major league record for most home runs in a season.

After one of those boisterous Bronx celebrations that used to be an October staple, the Yankees will take a train to Boston for a best-of-five Division Series starting Friday, a matchup of 100-win heavyweights. By the late innings, the sellout crowd was chanting ''We want Boston!''

The Red Sox went 10-9 against the Yankees this year.

For Oakland, it the latest disappointing defeat in what has stretched into decades of disappointment. The A's have lost eight straight winner-take-all postseason games since beating Willie Mays and the New York Mets in Game 7 of the 1973 World Series, and dropped all four of their postseason matchups against the Yankees.

New York became the first team since the 2001 A's to reach triple digits in wins and fail to finish first - the Red Sox set a team record with 108 victories.

Yankees fans fretted about an all-or-nothing knockout match, thinking back to last year when Severino fell behind Minnesota 3-0 just 10 pitches in. New York rallied for an 8-4 win against the Twins, but the memory was still raw.

Severino was 14-2 at the All-Star break this year but slumped badly in the second half, and rookie manager Aaron Boone's decision to start the 24-year-old right-hander against the A's instead of J.A. Happ or Masahiro Tanaka was intensely debated - the type of argument Boone used to enjoy as a television analyst who broadcast last year's wild-card game.

Severino made the move look like genius. He threw nine fastballs in a 10-pitch first inning, then relied on sliders and chanegups. He struck out seven his first time through the batting order, got in trouble in the fourth before striking out Marcus Semien on his fastest pitch of the night - 99.6 mph at the letters. He showed his emotion and looked spent despite not having allowed a hit.

And he was.

Jonathan Lucroy and Nick Martini singled leading off the fifth, and Boone signaled for Dellin Betances to relieve.

This time, he had a no decision to savor.

Betances retired Matt Chapman on a liner to right and Jed Lowrie on a fly to center, then struck out big league home run champion Khris Davis with a slider. Betances gleefully backpedaled off the mound.

New York opened a 6-0 lead in the bottom half. Judge started it with a double - his grounder hit about a foot foul just beyond the batter's box, then twisted fair down the line. Aaron Hicks followed with another doubles off Fernando Rodney.

After Treinen walked Stanton, and Voit hit an opposite-field drive to right, thinking it was a home run and raising his right arm at the plate. He chugged into third with his first big league triple and let loose with a holler.

The burly Voit tumbled across the plate, actually making a nifty slide, to just make it home on Didi Gregorius' sacrifice fly.

Betances (the winner) pitched a perfect sixth and David Robertson a 1-2-3 seventh. Davis hit a two-run homer off Zach Britton in the eighth, and Aroldis Chapman finished the five-hitter.

Oakland was a little engine that could, coming off three straight last-place finishes and last in opening-day payroll before creeping up to 28th following midseason acquisitions to bolster its injury devastated pitching staff. The A's managed to win 97 games despite a half-dozen starting pitchers getting hurt.

Short on options, A's managed Bob Melvin opted for baseball's latest fad: starting a reliever.

Hendriks, coming off seven straight shutout starts of one inning in September following his return from the minor leagues, walked Andrew McCutchen leading off, and Judge drove a fastball over the left-field scoreboard.

Hendriks (the loser) had not allowed a home run since June 24, the night before he was cut from the major league roster.

It was just the second home run since July 21 for Judge, who missed seven weeks with a broken right wrist before returning in mid-September. He joined Reggie Jackson as the only Yankees to hit four home runs in their first seven postseason home games for New York.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s six-pack

Some interesting NFL trends for the week:

— Steelers are 2-8 vs spread in their last ten games.

— Chargers are 2-11 vs spread in last 13 AFC West home games.

— Minnesota is 12-3 vs spread in its last fifteen games.

— Chiefs are 7-2 in last nine games as a home favorite.

— 49ers are 3-10 in their last 13 games as home favorites.

— Washington is 2-8 in game following its last ten byes.

Quote of the Day
“I want all of the positions to touch it. There’s nothing balanced about 50 percent run, 50 percent pass, because that’s 50 percent stupid. Now, what is balanced is when you have five skill positions … if all five of them are contributing to the offensive effort in a somewhat equal fashion, then that’s balanced, but this notion that, if you hand it to one guy 50 percent of the time and then you throw it to a combination of two guys the other 50 percent, that you’re really balanced … you probably pat yourself on the back and tell yourself that, and people have been doing that for decades. Well, you’re delusional.”
Washington State coach Mike Leach

Thursday’s quiz
Which NFL team(s) has Steve Spurrier coached?

Wednesday’s quiz
Paul Silas was Lebron James’ first head coach in the NBA.

Tuesday’s quiz
Colts’ kicker Adam Viniatieri played for NFL Europe’s Amsterdam Admirals, in 1996.


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Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) One of the coolest things about coming to Las Vegas is that this is the big leagues of gambling; sometimes I lose sight of that on my visits here. Tuesday, a guy cashed $41,500 worth of baseball futures winnings and used that money on five futures wagers on NBA/NHL teams, and a baseball bet.

Full disclosure: this gentleman likes the Heat/Mavericks in NBA, Sharks/Sabres in NHL, and the Brewers to win the World Series.

12) After scoring a TD with 0:26 left in Sunday’s game and up 31-12, Jacksonville went for two points; why? Does Doug Marrone hate the Jets? Did the Jets get mad? Why is this smart?

Just kick the PAT and go home; whats the point of making an enemy for the future?

11) Patrick Mahomes sat the first 15 games LY and then played the last game; did sitting and watching almost a whole season of games help him this season? Is it fair to throw a rookie into the fray right out of college, especially if he left college early?

These are billion dollar questions that NFL teams have to answer. Answer them wrong, and you’ll be looking for a new job.

10) One person on ESPN who is well worth watching: Scott Van Pelt on the late SportsCenter. He is smart, has a sense of humor and his people work at their jobs- they provide good info.

9) 76ers-Mavericks are playing two games in China this weekend; hopefully no one will steal anything and embarrass our country, the way the UCLA kids did last year.

8) Was fun to flip channels Monday night and find an Orlando-Philly preseason game; I’m a basketball guy, though more of a college hoop guy, but was fun to see an NBA game.

7) Le’Veon Bell will return to the Steelers during their bye week (Week 7) so he’ll miss two more games. Would be interesting to see the greeting he gets from teammates when he returns.

6) Tampa Bay did the expected and named Jameis Winston starting QB for their game next week; Buccaneers have their bye this week.

Did Ryan Fitzpatrick do enough to earn a contract form yet another team next year?

5) Scapegoat: a person who is blamed for the wrongdoings, mistakes, or faults of others, especially for reasons of expediency.

Arizona fired hitting coach Dave Magadan this week. Yup, it was all his fault; maybe they shouldn’t have put a humidor in the stadium, to deaden the baseballs. I’m pretty sure that wasn’t Magadan who decided to do that.

4) Minnesota Twins surprisingly made the playoffs LY, went 78-84 this year, and then fired Paul Molitor Tuesday after four seasons running the team. Why?

The worst part of the Analystics Era is that the pencil pushers don’t value managers nearly enough, and believe me, I’m a pencil pusher myself. But I know how important a manager is in setting the tone for the team and keeping things positive.

Computers and charts don’t win games; players do, and the human interaction between players and coaches is very important.

3) Backup PG DJ Augustin has finally found a home with the Orlando Magic; this will be his third year in Orlando, after he played for seven different teams in five years, from 2012-16.

2) Last six times Baltimore Ravens beat their rivals the Steelers, they went 4-2 vs spread the next week, so not much post-victory letdown for them.

1) Surprising fact: Over last 23 years, only five times has the team with the best regular season record won the World Series

[StarDust Bum]

LEADING OFF: Brewers go bullpen, Dodgers send out Ryu
October 3, 2018
By The Associated Press

A look at what's happening around the majors Thursday:

OPENER FOR THE OPENER

The Brewers will begin their NL Division Series against the Rockies with a bullpen game at Miller Park. Manager Craig Counsell said Wednesday he had not decided on the order of his relievers. The group will almost certainly include All-Star left-hander Josh Hader, though Colorado will have a tough test start to finish - Milwaukee led the majors with a 1.98 bullpen ERA in September.

Colorado counters with Antonio Senzatela, a right-hander who is 6-6 with a 4.38 ERA in 23 games, including 13 starts. It will be the postseason debut for the 23-year-old.

THE ACE AWAITS

The Braves and Dodgers open their NLDS in Los Angeles, and Atlanta has a chance to jump ahead before facing Clayton Kershaw in Game 2. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts decided to hold back his ace left-hander and will instead start Hyun-Jin Ryu in Game 1. The left-handed Ryu was 7-3 with a 1.97 ERA in 15 starts this season.

Mike Foltynewicz is up for the Braves. The hard-throwing right-hander put it all together this season, posting career bests with a 2.85 ERA over 183 innings. Atlanta might be without shortstop Dansby Swanson, who appears a long shot to make the team's roster after partially tearing a ligament in his left hand last month.

TAKE YOUR PICK

Rajai Davis has his name cemented in October baseball lore, but it might not be on Cleveland's playoff roster this year. Indians manager Terry Francona has one spot left on his 25-man roster for the AL Division Series against the Houston Astros and it will go to either Davis or utility infielder Erik Gonzalez.

''We're debating the last spot,'' Francona said Wednesday. ''We're going back and forth.''

The Indians will open the ALDS in Houston on Friday and Francona must submit his roster to Major League Baseball by 10 a.m. that morning for the best-of-five series.

SUSPENDED

Addison Russell's future with the Cubs is in question after Major League Baseball suspended the Chicago shortstop 40 games for violating the league's domestic violence policy after a series of allegations made by his ex-wife. Russell's unpaid suspension includes the 11 regular-season games he missed after being placed on administrative leave Sept. 21.

Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said he's not sure what the odds are of Russell playing another game for the Cubs.

''Domestic violence is everyone's problem,'' he said. ''Because of that, we all have an obligation to be part of the solution as well. The discipline in a case like this is part of the solution going forward and so we support Major League Baseball's decision and we think it's appropriate. But prevention is also a big part of the solution and maybe a more important solution.''

PASSING THE BUCK

The Orioles are beginning a search for a new manager and general manager a day after firing Buck Showalter and Dan Duquette. Baltimore staggered through its worst season since the team moved to Baltimore in 1954, losing a franchise-record 115 games. The club wants fresh faces to take over a potentially long rebuilding project. Director of Player Development Brian Graham will handle day-to-day oversight of baseball operations while the Orioles search for Duquette's successor.

[StarDust Bum]

Dodgers look to Ryu, not Kershaw, to set tone in opener
October 3, 2018
By The Associated Press

LOS ANGELES (AP) These aren't the same Dodgers that won 104 games, ran away in the NL West, and fell one victory short of a World Series title last year.

Example A: After a slow start, they won 92 games and needed Game 163 to earn their sixth straight division title.

Example B: Clayton Kershaw won't be opening the postseason as the Game 1 starter for the first time in six consecutive playoff appearances.

Example C: Kershaw told Hyun-Jin Ryu that the South Korean left-hander was going to take the mound on Thursday night against Mike Foltynewicz and the Atlanta Braves to begin the best-of-five Division Series.

''I'm obviously kind of nervous, but I think it's a good thing,'' Ryu said through a translator Wednesday.

The Dodgers obviously think flip-flopping Kershaw and Ryu is the right move, with manager Dave Roberts saying it allows both pitchers to have five days' rest between starts. If Kershaw started Game 1, he would be on four days' rest, while Ryu would be on six days' rest.

Kershaw starting the opener has always been the surest sign that it's October. The face of the franchise has started eight of the past 10 postseason Game 1s. He can opt out of his contract after the World Series.

''He obviously wanted to pitch Game 1 and expected to,'' Roberts said. ''But after talking to him and explaining our thoughts, he accepted it and he just said he'll be ready to go for the second game.''

Kershaw often has started on short rest in recent postseasons, but the Dodgers don't plan on that this time. Rookie Walker Buehler is set to go in Game 3, having impressed enough to be the heir apparent to Kershaw.

''It doesn't have to all fall on his shoulders like it has in the past,'' starter-turned-reliever Alex Wood said of Kershaw.

Slugger Matt Kemp added, ''We got a lot of guys who can get the job done.''

Ryu is eager to make a mark after not pitching in the postseason since 2014, having been injured for most of the 2015 and '16 seasons. He was left off last year's playoff rosters after going 5-9 with a 3.77 ERA.

Still, Ryu has posted a better ERA (2.81) in his three career postseason games than Kershaw (4.35) in his 24 playoff games.

''Finding out that I made the postseason roster, especially not making it last year, was definitely huge for me,'' he said. ''I'm going to go full throttle from the very first pitch in the very first inning.''

Ryu was 7-3 with a 1.97 ERA in the regular season. Fellow lefty Kershaw was 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA and team-high 155 strikeouts.

Ryu had an edge over the final month of the season, posting a 1.88 ERA after overcoming a groin injury. Kershaw, also injured this season, had a 3.89 ERA in September.

''I think it's pick your poison between the two of them,'' Wood said.

If needed, Kershaw could still start Game 5 in Los Angeles on normal rest, so the move allows him to be available twice in the best-of-5 series.

''If we get to that point, then we'll have a discussion,'' Roberts said.

Like the Dodgers, the Braves aren't the same team they were a year ago.

Atlanta is back in the postseason for the first time since 2013, when they were beaten by the Dodgers in four games.

Under manager Brian Snitker, the Braves went from 72 wins in 2017 to 90 and the NL East title this year, surprising many with the quick turnaround.

''No one really followed us until the end of the season,'' Foltynewicz said. ''Just because we started off hot, no one thought we would continue being that good and we did the whole season.''

Led by so-called ''Baby Braves'' - 20-year-old left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. and 21-year-old second baseman Ozzie Albies - Atlanta has gotten production from veterans Nick Markakis and Freddie Freeman as well.

What the Braves lack is playoff experience, especially compared to the battle-tested Dodgers.

''We got a bunch of young guys that they had never experienced September either, having to win and chasing a division,'' Snitker said, ''and then it didn't faze them a bit.''

[StarDust Bum]

Bullpen day catches on as Rockies, Brewers open NLDS series
October 3, 2018
By The Associated Press

MILWAUKEE (AP) The bullpen day has come to October.

The Milwaukee Brewers plan to open their first postseason series in seven years with a reliever. Manager Craig Counsell hadn't decided who would go first when the Brewers host the Colorado Rockies in Game 1 of the NL Division Series on Thursday.

Milwaukee led the majors with a 1.98 bullpen ERA in September, so why not go straight to a great strength?

''We're going to share the outs a little bit more, but we really are confident with the days off in the series, the way we're coming into the series, that we'll certainly be able to do it,'' Counsell said.

Those relievers will face a Rockies lineup that finally got a day off Wednesday after three games in three days in three different time zones.

Colorado faced the Cubs' tough left-handed starter Jon Lester in the NL wild-card game Tuesday night, a 2-1 win in 13 innings. The Rockies managed just one hit in 6 2/3 innings off Dodgers righty Walker Buehler in a 5-2 loss in Los Angeles in the tiebreaking game for the NL West crown.

Now for something completely different.

''Well, I've never experienced that in the postseason, facing a bullpen, facing so many different guys,'' Rockies veteran outfielder Carlos Gonzalez said.

The Oakland Athletics started reliever Liam Hendriks against the New York Yankees in the AL wild-card game Wednesday night. The trend of using a relief ''opener'' started with the Tampa Bay Rays this year.

Facing a traditional starter, hitters hope to get a better read on pitches the second and third times through the lineups. Hitters may not have that luxury in a bullpen day.

Colorado manager Bud Black is adhering to a simple approach.

''Again, I think the ultimate challenge is just have good at-bats, play baseball, have a good approach against any pitcher that the Brewers throw out there,'' he said.

Milwaukee's best starter, Jhoulys Chacin, started the tiebreaking game for the NL Central title Monday, a win over the Cubs at Wrigley. He's going in Game 2 on Friday on three days' rest.

Otherwise, the Brewers have been going with a rotation the last few weeks that includes left-handers Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez, along with right-hander Zach Davies. Miley and Davies would have been available on regular rest for Game 1.

The Rockies are sticking with a traditional starter for the opener. Right-hander Antonio Senzatela is 6-6 with a 4.38 ERA in 23 games, including 13 starts.

Senzatela made his big-league debut at Miller Park last year. He allowed two hits and struck out six over five shutout innings in a 2-1 win.

His biggest challenge in a formidable Brewers lineup will be to contain Christian Yelich, the MVP candidate who hit an NL-high .326 this season and nearly won the Triple Crown.

''Just got to throw quality pitches and compete,'' Senzatela said.

Other notes and things to watch ahead of the series:

REBUILD COMPLETE

Not only are the Brewers in the playoffs just three years after being sellers at the trade deadline, they've got home-field advantage in the National League.

''We earned the right to sit and wait,'' Brewers infielder Travis Shaw said Wednesday.

Sure did, capping an eight-game winning streak to finish the regular season with a victory over the Cubs at Wrigley Field in an NL Central tiebreaker game.

It's Milwaukee's first postseason appearance since 2011, when they also last won the Central.

ROAD WEARY

The road-weary Rockies celebrated at Wrigley in the visiting clubhouse Tuesday, just like the Brewers did Monday.

''We're a little tired, there was a lot of jumping last night,'' Gonzalez said.

But they're used to winning away from Coors Field - no small feat considering the adjustment from Denver's high altitude. The Rockies were 44-38 on the road this season, which marked their most road victories in franchise history. The previous mark was 41 in 2009 and matched in `17.

TERRIFIC YELICH

Yelich hit .367 with 25 homers and 67 RBIs after the All-Star break to lead the Brewers' second-half surge. The offseason deal that general manager David Stearns made to acquire Yelich from the Miami Marlins has paid off.

''I think that's the goal every year, is to get better as a player and learn something about yourself every single season and try and make adjustments,'' Yelich said. ''I think that's what happened this year.''

HOT BAT

Slick fielding third baseman Nolan Arenado enters the series on a 10-game hitting streak, which is his longest of the season. Over the stretch, he's hitting .341 with four homers. He drove in the game's first run against the Cubs in the wild-card game with a sacrifice fly in the first inning. Arenado is coming off a regular season in which he led the NL with 38 homers.

[StarDust Bum]

A capsule look at the Indians-Astros playoff series
October 3, 2018
By The Associated Press

A look at the best-of-five American League Division Series between the Cleveland Indians and Houston Astros:

Schedule: (All times EDT) Game 1, Friday, at Houston, 2:05 p.m.; Game 2, Saturday, at Houston, 4:37 p.m.; Game 3, Monday, Oct. 8, at Cleveland, TBA; x-Game 4, Tuesday, Oct. 9, at Cleveland, TBA; x-Game 5, Thursday, Oct. 11, at Houston, TBA. (All games on TBS).

x-if necessary.

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Season Series: Astros won 4-3.

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Projected Lineups:

Indians: SS Francisco Lindor (.277, 38 HRs, 92 RBIs, 42 2Bs, 25 SBs), LF Michael Brantley (.309, 17, 76), 2B Jose Ramirez (.272, 39, 106, 34 SBs), DH Edwin Encarnacion (.246, 32, 107), 3B Josh Donaldson (.246, 8, 23 with Blue Jays and Indians), 1B Yonder Alonso (.250, 23, 83), RF Melky Cabrera (.280, 6, 39 in 78 games), C Yan Gomes (.266, 16, 48), CF Jason Kipnis (.230, 18, 75).

Astros: CF George Springer (.265, 22, 71), 2B Jose Altuve (.315, 13, 61), 3B Alex Bregman (.286, 31, 103, AL-best 51 doubles, 84 walks, 82 Ks), SS Carlos Correa (.239, 15, 65), 1B Yuli Gurriel (.291, 13, 85), DH Evan Gattis (.226, 25, 78), LF Marwin Gonzalez (.247, 16, 68), RF Josh Reddick (.242, 17, 47), C Martin Maldonado (.225, 9, 44 for Angels and Astros) or Brian McCann (.212, 7, 23 in 63 games).

---

Starting Pitchers:

Indians: RH Corey Kluber (20-7, 2.89 ERA, 222 Ks in league-leading 215 IP), RH Carlos Carrasco (17-10, 3.38, career-high 231 Ks), RH Mike Clevinger (13-8, 3.02, career-high 200 IP, 207 Ks), RH Trevor Bauer (12-6, 2.21, 221 Ks in 175 1/3 IP).

Astros: RH Justin Verlander (16-9, 2.52, AL-high 290 Ks and only 37 walks in 214 IP), RH Gerrit Cole (15-5, 2.88, 2nd in AL with 276 Ks in 200 1/3 IP), LH Dallas Keuchel (12-11, 3.74), RH Charlie Morton (15-3, 3.13).

---

Relievers:

Indians: RH Cody Allen (4-6, 4.70, 27/32 saves), LH Brad Hand (2-5, 2.75, 32/39 saves with Padres and Indians), LH Andrew Miller (2-4, 4.24, 37 appearances, fewest since 2013), RH Shane Bieber (11-5, 4.55 in 19 starts), LH Oliver Perez (1-1, 1.39 in 51 appearances), LH Adam Cimber (3-8, 3.42 in 70 games for Padres and Indians).

Astros: RH Roberto Osuna (2-2, 2.37, 21/22 saves for Blue Jays and Astros), RH Ryan Pressly (2-1, 2.54, 2 saves for Twins and Astros), RH Hector Rondon (2-5, 3.20, 15 saves), LH Tony Sipp (3-1, 1.86, 54 appearances), RH Collin McHugh (6-2, 1.99, 58 appearances), RH Will Harris (5-3, 3.49, 61 appearances), RH Josh James (2-0, 2.35), RH Brad Peacock (3-5, 3.46, 61 appearances), RH Joe Smith (5-1, 3.74, 56 appearances), RH Lance McCullers (10-6, 3.86 in 25 games, 22 starts).

---

Matchups:

First postseason meeting between these teams. ... Indians faced Astros twice in May, losing two of three games at Minute Maid Park before splitting four-game series with defending World Series champions in Cleveland. Indians were outscored 45-29 in those seven games. ... Cleveland won 8-6 and 10-9 slugfests over Houston in final two games, taking the finale on Greg Allen's walk-off homer in 14th inning. ... Indians batted just .229 against Houston pitchers. ... Lindor had major issues against the Astros, batting only .097 (3 for 31) and striking out seven times. His career average is just .201 vs. Houston. ... One bright spot for Cleveland's offense was Encarnacion, who batted .346 (9 for 26) with two homers, five RBIs and scored seven runs. He was only Indians regular to hit over .300. ... Kluber dominated in two starts, going 1-0 with 1.35 ERA and 17 strikeouts. ... Indians bench coach Brad Mills was Astros manager from 2010-12. ... Cleveland is 10-6 at Houston since 2014. ... Houston outscored Cleveland 45-29 during regular season. ... Indians ranked second in MLB with .259 batting average and Astros were seventh at .255. ... Astros led majors with 3.11 ERA and Indians were ninth at 3.77. ... Encarnacion batted .417 with two homers and four RBIs in 2016 ALDS for Toronto against Texas. ... Bauer, who recently returned from broken leg, might start Game 4 for Cleveland - but could be used out of the bullpen in the first three games. He missed more than a month late in season but looked good in nine innings over three appearances in September and should be ready. He ended the season ranked second in AL in ERA.

---

Big Picture:

Indians: Cleveland (91-71) waltzed to third straight AL Central title with sights set on October and possibly ending World Series championship drought dating to 1948 - longest current streak in majors. ... Indians failed to return to Series last year, blowing 2-0 lead in Division Series and losing to Yankees. ... Cleveland might be better prepared than ever for postseason with a superb starting rotation anchored by Kluber and a lineup strengthened by the late-season acquisition of Donaldson, the 2015 AL MVP. ... Lindor and Ramirez have been a dynamic duo again this season, combining for 77 homers, 198 RBIs and 59 steals. They're the first teammates to each get 80 extra-base hits in consecutive seasons since Yankees Hall of Famers Joe DiMaggio and Lou Gehrig in 1936-37. ... Indians are first team in major league history to have four pitchers reach at least 200 strikeouts. ... Bullpen was up and down all season, but Miller seems to be close to pitching like an All-Star again following three trips to disabled list. Cleveland manager Terry Francona might be able to mix and match in late innings with Miller, Hand and Allen. ... Donaldson's arrival pushed Ramirez from third base to second and strengthened infield defense. ... Kipnis had more time to adjust to playing the outfield after Ramirez's switch.

Astros: AL West champions for second straight year. Houston (103-59) set franchise record for wins and reached postseason for third time in four years under manager AJ Hinch. Astros are in playoffs for 12th time. ... Houston went 64-35 in first half but cooled off in second half (39-24). ... Verlander, Keuchel and Cole all finished in top 5 in AL in innings pitched. Astros became sixth team to do that and first since 1970 Orioles, who won World Series. ... Team acquired Osuna and Pressly before July 31 trade deadline to bolster bullpen. ... Hinch signed four-year extension in August to keep him under contract with club through 2022. ... Astros had better record on road (57-24) than at home (46-35). ... Altuve was on disabled list this season for first time in career, sitting out from July 26 to Aug. 21 with knee injury. ... Verlander led AL with 0.90 WHIP and was third with .200 opponents' batting average. His 2.52 ERA ranked third in AL and was his lowest since 2.40 mark in 2011 with Detroit when he won AL MVP and Cy Young Award. ... Bregman led offense with Correa and Altuve not performing as well as they have in past. The 24-year-old Bregman set career highs for homers, RBIs and doubles.

---

Watch For:

- Dynamite or Duds? Lindor and Ramirez make the Indians' offense go - or stop. The pair didn't show any flaws last season until October, when they went a combined 4 for 38 and struck out 13 times against the Yankees.

- Correa's Back. The top overall pick in the 2012 draft hit .268 with 13 homers and 49 RBIs in the first half this season but struggled with a back injury for most of the second half. He missed about six weeks and hit just .180 with two homers and 16 RBIs in 37 games after the All-Star break. He said he's feeling better now and hopes he can get back on track in the postseason.

- Bauer Power. The right-hander's ability to pitch multiple innings on short rest gives Francona a valuable weapon he won't hesitate to use against the Astros. Bauer will come out of the bullpen if either Kluber or Carrasco struggles in the first two games, and there's a chance Bauer could be used as either the closer or a bridge to the back of the bullpen.

- Morton's Shoulder. The right-hander spent time on the DL late in season with shoulder discomfort but made two appearances during the last week and appeared to have regained his velocity. He looked ready for the playoffs.

- Big Stage. Donaldson battled injuries before Toronto decided to trade him on Aug. 31 and get something in return before he hit free agency. The deal rankled other American League contenders, and now Donaldson has a chance in October to show he's still one of baseball's most dangerous hitters and perhaps create a lucrative market for himself this winter. He looked good in limited action at the end of the season, batting .280 with three homers and seven RBIs in 16 games. In five career postseasons, Donaldson has hit .292 with four homers and 13 RBIs.

[StarDust Bum]

NLDS Cheat Sheet
Kevin Rogers

2018 Head-to-Head Matchups (Milwaukee 5-2, Under 4-3)

Milwaukee vs. Colorado (Coors Field)
May 10 – Brewers 5, Rockies 2 (Under 11 ½)
May 11 – Brewers 11, Rockies 10 (Over 11 ½)
May 12 – Rockies 4, Brewers 0 (Under 11)
May 13 – Brewers 7, Rockies 3 (Under 10 ½)

Colorado vs. Milwaukee (Miller Park)
August 3 – Brewers 5, Rockies 3 (Under 8 ½)
August 4 – Brewers 8, Rockies 4 (Over 8 ½)
August 5 – Rockies 5, Brewers 4 (Over 8 ½)

This month may be referred to as “Rocktober” in the Denver area after the Rockies eliminated the Cubs in the NL Wild Card game in 13 innings. However, the Rockies’ opponent in the NLDS is riding plenty of momentum as the Brewers are red-hot following a spectacular September.

On September 1, following a one-run loss to the Nationals coupled with a Cubs’ blowout win over the Phillies, the Brewers sat five games out of the lead in the NL Central race. Milwaukee turned it up over the next 30 days by winning 20 of the final 26 games, including Monday’s 3-1 triumph at Chicago to wrap up its first division title since 2011. Also, the Brewers went from potentially hosting the NL Wild Card game (with a loss to the Cubs) to owning home-field advantage throughout the National League playoffs.

Milwaukee’s resurgence this season following an 86-76 campaign in 2017 is attributed to several key offensive additions in the offseason. Most notably the pickup of outfielder Christian Yelich from the Marlins, who captured the NL batting title (.326), while finishing tied for third in home runs (36), and tied for second in RBI (110). Lorenzo Cain returned to Milwaukee after a successful stint in Kansas City as the center fielder hit .308 to go along with 30 stolen bases, which both ranked in the top-five in the NL.

The Brewers’ pitching staff showcased only one hurler that won double-digit games as former Colorado right-hander Jhoulys Chacin won a career-best 15 starts. Chacin posted career-highs in strikeouts (156) and WHIP (1.16) in his first season with the Brewers, but has lost his last three starts at Miller Park. Chacin beat the Rockies at Coors Field in May as a +135 underdog, 5-2 by tossing 5.2 innings and yielding four hits and two runs.

The Rockies overcame a ridiculous travel schedule in a three-day stretch to reach the NLDS for the first time since 2009. Colorado forced a Game 163 by routing Washington at home on Sunday, but the Rockies lost to the Dodgers in Los Angeles, 5-2 to be denied their first-ever NL West title. The Rockies then had to travel to Chicago to face a Cubs’ team that had been at home the entire weekend plus Monday in their pseudo-division championship game against the Brewers.

Colorado held off Chicago, 2-1 in 13 innings to bounce back from last year’s Wild Card loss at Arizona as the Rockies improved 10-2 in the last 12 games overall. In Tuesday’s victory at Wrigley Field, Rockies’ southpaw Kyle Freeland tossed 6.2 spectacular innings in his playoff debut as the Rockies moved to 16-2 in his previous 18 starts.

Although he lost in Game 163 to the Dodgers, right-hander German Marquez has been a key member of the Rockies’ rotation this season. Colorado has compiled a 12-5 record in his past 17 starts since the end of June, while dominating Milwaukee at Miller Park in early August. Marquez scattered three hits and two runs in seven innings, but the Colorado bullpen couldn’t hold onto a 3-2 lead as Milwaukee walked-off in the ninth inning in a 5-3 triumph.

The Brewers and Rockies are meeting in the playoffs for the first time ever as Colorado is looking to advance past the NLDS for the first time since capturing the pennant in 2007. The Brewers last reached the NLCS in 2011 as they lost to the Cardinals, while never making the World Series since moving to the National League in 1998.


2018 Head-to-Head Matchups (Los Angeles 5-2, Over 4-3)

Atlanta vs. Los Angeles (Dodger Stadium)
June 8 – Dodgers 3, Braves 1 (Over 7 ½)
June 9 – Braves 5, Dodgers 3 (Over 7 ½)
June 10 – Dodgers 7, Braves 2 (Over 7)

Los Angeles vs. Atlanta (SunTrust Park)
July 26 – Dodgers 8, Braves 2 (Over 8 ½)
July 27 – Dodgers 4, Braves 1 (Under 8)
July 28 – Dodgers 5, Braves 1 (Under 9)
July 29 – Braves 4, Dodgers 1 (Under 8 ½)

Four of the five playoff teams in the National League needed to play on Monday to decide the NL Central and NL West titles. The only team to sit back and kick their feet was the NL East champion Braves, who captured their first division crown since 2013, but owned the fewest wins of any playoff squad with 90.

Atlanta beat up the competition inside the NL East, specifically the Marlins, Phillies, and Mets, the three teams that finished with losing records. The Braves posted a solid 39-18 record against those squads, but went 51-54 against the rest of the league, while failed to put together a winning mark against any of the other NL playoff teams in the regular season.

On the positive side, the Braves finished second in the National League in batting average at .257 behind the Cubs, while scoring 759 runs, which ranked tied for fourth in the NL with the Cardinals. Three Braves’ starting pitchers owned an ERA of 3.00 or less, led by right-hander Mike Foltynewicz, who won a team-best 13 games, while mid-season acquisition Kevin Gausman was unbeaten in five starts at SunTrust Park.

Foltynewicz struck out the sixth-most batters in the NL this season with 202, while fellow starters Sean Newcomb and Julio Teheran each struck out over 160 batters. In his only start against the Dodgers this season, Foltynewicz allowed four runs in five innings of a 4-1 home defeat in July. Newcomb nearly no-hit the Dodgers in that same July series, as the southpaw settled for a 4-1 underdog victory. However, Newcomb struggled down the stretch as the Braves lost five of his final seven starts.

The Dodgers won 13 of their final 17 games to force a division championship game on Monday against the Rockies. Los Angeles cruised to a 5-2 victory to wrap up its sixth consecutive NL West title, while improving to 13-4 at home the last 17 games since getting swept by St. Louis in late August.

Prior to this season, not many people would predict that Max Muncy and Matt Kemp, who were not on the Dodgers’ roster last season, would combine for 56 home runs and 164 runs batted in. The Dodgers showcased seven players to hit at least 20 home runs this season, which doesn’t include Manny Machado, who knocked out a total of 37 home runs between his time and Los Angeles and Baltimore.

The big question heading into the postseason following last year’s Game 7 loss in the World Series to Houston is whether or not Clayton Kershaw can lead the Dodgers to their first championship since 1988. Los Angeles won four of Kershaw’s five postseason starts in 2017, but had to pitch out of the bullpen in Game 7 after the Dodgers trailed, 5-0 to the Astros. Kershaw is unbeaten in his last eight starts, while he shut down the Braves at SunTrust Park in July as the Dodgers are 7-0 in his past seven starts against Atlanta dating back to 2013.

However, Kershaw will start Game 2 for Los Angeles and turn to another left-hander in Game 1 as Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the ball. Ryu closed the regular season on fire by winning each of his final three starts, while allowing four hits in each outing and a total of one run. In Ryu’s nine home starts this season, the Dodgers posted a solid 7-2 mark as he owned a miniscule ERA of 1.15 at Chavez Ravine.

The Dodgers and Braves are meeting in the playoffs for the third time ever as Los Angeles eliminated Atlanta in four games of the NLDS back in 2013. Los Angeles had advanced to the NLCS in each of the past two seasons, while Atlanta is seeking its first trip to the NLCS since 2001 as the Braves have lost seven consecutive playoff series.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 4

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COLORADO (92 - 72) at MILWAUKEE (96 - 67) - 5:05 PM
TYLER ANDERSON (L) vs. WADE MILEY (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 5-2 (+3.8 Units) against COLORADO this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.8 Units)

TYLER ANDERSON vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
ANDERSON is 1-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 8.59 and a WHIP of 1.636.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)

WADE MILEY vs. COLORADO since 1997
MILEY is 7-2 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 4.03 and a WHIP of 1.319.
His team's record is 8-5 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-4. (+4.2 units)

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ATLANTA (90 - 72) at LA DODGERS (92 - 71) - 8:35 PM
MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ (R) vs. HYUN-JIN RYU (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 30-41 (-24.0 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997.
ATLANTA is 90-71 (+19.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 15-11 (+10.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season.
ATLANTA is 47-34 (+19.6 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ATLANTA is 59-49 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ATLANTA is 40-31 (+6.7 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
ATLANTA is 46-39 (+13.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ATLANTA is 30-32 (+19.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 92-71 (-21.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA DODGERS are 18-23 (-17.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
LA DODGERS are 45-37 (-21.1 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
LA DODGERS are 8-12 (-14.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less this season.
LA DODGERS are 49-52 (-26.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Thursday since 1997.
LA DODGERS are 64-53 (-19.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
LA DODGERS are 52-46 (-20.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
LA DODGERS are 11-16 (-16.5 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
RYU is 5-12 (-10.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 5-2 (+1.9 Units) against ATLANTA this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.5 Units)

MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
FOLTYNEWICZ is 1-1 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 5.56 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

HYUN-JIN RYU vs. ATLANTA since 1997
RYU is 0-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 4.22 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (+0.0 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, October 4

National League
Rockies (92-72) @ Brewers (96-67)
Senzatela is 2-0, 1.62 in his last three starts; his last six starts stayed under. Team in his starts: 7-6, 3-4 road
5-inning record: 5-6-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-13

It is a bullpen game for Milwaukee. Team in his starts: home
5-inning record: Allowed run in 1st inning:

Colorado won ten of its last 12 games, including four of last five on road. Rockies played at home Sunday, in LA Monday, in Chicago Tuesday- they’re in Milwaukee here. Brewers won their last eight games, only three of which were at home.

Colorado lost Wild Card game LY, their first playoffs appearance since 2009. Brewers are in the playoffs for first time since 2011.

Braves (90-72) @ Dodgers (92-71)
Foltynewicz is 3-1, 3.09 in his last five starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. He lost 4-1 to LA July July 27, allowing four runs in five IP. Team in his starts: 14-16, 8-7 road
5-inning record: 15-9-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-30

Ryu is 3-0, 0.47 in his last three starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. He didn’t pitch against the Braves this year. Team in his starts: 9-5, 7-2 home
5-inning record: 8-4-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-14

Braves lost four of their last five games, after they had clinched NL East- they’re in playoffs for first time since 2013. Dodgers won four in row, 10 of last 13 games; they won six of last seven home games. LA is in playoffs for sixth year in row; they haven’t won a World Series since 1988.

______________________________

Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/18
Atl 32-30-13…..35-31-10………67-61
Colo 35-29-15……37-26-11……71-55
LA 40-28-8…….34-29-16……74-57
Milw 31-34-10…..39-30-8…….70-64


%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 9/18)
Atl 23-74……31-77………54
Colo 23-78…….29-74.…….52
LA 26-75……..29-78..…..55
Milw 27-74…..…30-79…….57




MLB

Thursday, October 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Colorado Rockies
Colorado is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games
Colorado is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Colorado is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Colorado's last 16 games on the road
Colorado is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
Colorado is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Colorado's last 12 games when playing Milwaukee
Colorado is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games
Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Colorado
Milwaukee is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 12 games when playing Colorado
Milwaukee is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Colorado


Atlanta Braves
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games
LA Dodgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Dodgers is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games at home
LA Dodgers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
LA Dodgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Dodgers's last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta

[StarDust Bum]

The Brewers have announced their "initial out getter" for today's NLDS Game 1 against the Rockies will be Brandon Woodruff.
Rockies (Senzatela) +126
Brewers (Woodruff - bullpen) -137
Total: 8.5


*********************

MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, October 4


Colorado @ Milwaukee

Game 901-902
October 4, 2018 @ 5:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
(Senzatela) 19.545
Milwaukee
(Woodruff) 16.127
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado
by 3 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
-140
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Colorado
(+120); Over

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers

Game 903-904
October 4, 2018 @ 8:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Fltynwcz) 16.383
LA Dodgers
(Ryu) 15.265
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-175
7
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+155); Under

[StarDust Bum]

STARTER STAT OF THE DAY

Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers (7-3, 1.97 ERA, $196): The Braves might boast one of the toughest challenges for a left-handed starter, but if anyone can keep those Atlanta bats silent, it's Ryu. He was positively dominant this season, allowing more than three earned runs just twice in his 15 starts. And he saved some of his best work for last, having given up just one run over 19 innings in his past three turns.

Atlanta has a lineup capable of doing some damage against Ryu, but it likely won't be via the home run. Ryu has surrendered just six long balls over his previous 10 starts and was taken deep just three times in nine starts at Dodger Stadium. If Ryu can give the Dodgers six solid innings, L.A. should walk away with the victory - and might even cash the run line (+125).


Primed for a Fast Start?

Don't be surprised to see the Brewers jump on Senzatela early, at least if season trends hold. Milwaukee was one of the most prolific first-inning teams in the league during the regular season. The Brewers ranked tied for fourth in baseball in average first-inning runs per game (0.69), and were even better at home, putting up 0.81 runs per contest in the opening frame.

Senzatela was roughed up in the first inning this season, boasting a 5.54 ERA while allowing an ugly .340/.393/.472 slash line against. Consider taking the Brewers to produce a run in the bottom of the first inning ().


High and Mighty

Home runs often lead to big innings – so when considering which team is likely to put up the biggest single-inning run total, measuring each team's long ball potential is a great place to start. And when it comes to the Dodgers and Braves, it's clear that the home side has enormous potential for a big inning compared to the visitors.

The Dodgers mashed 235 homers in the regular season, 60 more than the Braves. Combine that with the fact that Ryu hasn't given up more than two earned runs in an inning all season, we lean toward the Dodgers posting the biggest inning (+105).


Power Outage?

Of course, playoff success is all about pitching – and the way that Foltynewitz and Ryu have limited opposing home runs this season, it's possible that neither team goes deep in the series opener. Foltynewicz surrendered just seven home runs in his 15 road starts in 2018, with only two of those homers coming in his previous six starts away from Atlanta.

It's a bit of a longshot play, but if you anticipate a pitcher's duel in this one, you can ride the zero-homer train, which pays out at a tempting +210.

[StarDust Bum]

ALDS Cheat Sheet
October 4, 2018

2018 Head-to-Head Matchups (Astros 4-3, Over 5-2)

Cleveland vs. Houston (Minute Maid Park)
May 18 – Astros 4, Indians 1 (Under 7 ½)
May 19 – Indians 5, Astros 4 (Over 7)
May 20 – Astros 3, Indians 1 (Under 7 ½)

Houston vs. Cleveland (Progressive Field)
May 24 – Astros 8, Indians 2 (Over 8)
May 25 – Astros 11, Indians 2 (Over 7 ½)
May 26 – Indians 8, Astros 6 (Over 8)
May 27 – Indians 10, Astros 9 (Over 8)

The Astros begin their title defense after winning over 100 games for the second straight season. Houston compiled as many road wins (57) as Boston did at home, while finishing with the seventh-best home mark in the American League at 46-35. On August 19, the Astros and Athletics were tied atop the AL West at 74-49, as Houston won the finale of a critical three-game set in Oakland, 9-4. Since that victory, the Astros went on a 28-10 run to grab the AL West championship, including a 12-2 record at Minute Maid Park.

Staff ace Justin Verlander will take the mound in Game 1 for Houston, as the Astros put together a putrid 2-8 record at Minute Maid Park from June through August to lose over 17 units in that span. However, Verlander rebounded in the final month of the season as Houston won all five of his starts, including a 3-0 mark at home. Verlander struck out double-digit batters in each of his last four starts, while not allowing a run in his final two outings. Verlander posted a 3-0 record at home in the playoffs during the 2017 championship run, while the right-hander is making his first start against Cleveland this season.

Gerrit Cole put together a 15-5 record in his first season in Houston, while the Astros won his final six starts. The right-hander yielded two earned runs or less in 21 starts this season, as Cole allowed three earned runs in seven innings of a 10-9 defeat to Cleveland back in late May. Houston led that game, 8-3 headed to the bottom of the ninth before Cleveland rallied for five runs to force extra innings and ultimately won in 14.

The Indians were one win away in 2016 from the franchise’s first World Series title since 1948, but blew a 3-1 lead to the Cubs. Last season, Cleveland jumped out to a commanding 2-0 ALDS advantage over New York, but the Yankees stormed back for three straight wins to knock out the Tribe. Cleveland will try to get it right this time around after raising its third consecutive AL Central title following a 91-71 campaign.

In late May, the Indians were 24-25 after losing the first two games of a home series with the Astros, but still managed to stay in first place. Cleveland went on to win 28 of the next 46 games heading into the All-Star break to grab firm control of the division, while going on a 15-4 run in August to complete distance itself from the pack.

Corey Kluber has won the AL Cy Young award twice in his career (2014 and 2017), but had never reached the 20-victory mark in a season prior to 2018. Kluber finished this season at 20-7, while owning an ERA below 3.00 (2.89) for the third time in his stellar career. In Game 1 on Friday, Kluber gets the ball at Minute Maid Park for an afternoon affair as the Cleveland ace put together a 9-0 mark with a 1.93 ERA in daytime starts this season. Kluber performed well in two outings against Houston this season by allowing two earned runs in 13 innings of work, including a 5-4 triumph at Minute Maid Park in May. However, Kluber has struggled in his last three playoff starts by giving up 13 runs, while not lasting past the fourth inning in any of those appearances.

Fellow right-hander Carlos Carrasco put together nearly the same numbers in 2018 as he did in 2017, winning 17 games each season while his ERA slightly jumped from 3.28 to 3.38. Carrasco struck out a career-best 231 batters compared to walking only 43, while the Indians finished UNDER the total in seven of his final 12 starts. Carrasco wasn’t sharp in two appearances against Houston this season by giving up 15 hits and eight earned runs in 13.1 innings of work.

The Indians and Astros are meeting in the playoffs for the first time ever as Cleveland has won four consecutive postseason series openers (all at home). During last season’s championship run, the Astros compiled a strong 8-1 record at Minute Maid Park, while limiting its opponents to three runs or less in its three playoff series openers in 2017.

2018 Head-to-Head Matchups (Red Sox 10-9, Over 11-6-2)

New York vs. Boston (Fenway Park)
April 10 – Red Sox 14, Yankees 1 (Over 6 ½)
April 11 – Yankees 10, Red Sox 7 (Over 8)
April 12 – Red Sox 6, Yankees 3 (Push 9)

August 2 – Red Sox 15, Yankees 7 (Over 10)
August 3 – Red Sox 4, Yankees 1 (Under 9)
August 4 – Red Sox 4, Yankees 1 (Under 10)
August 5 – Red Sox 5, Yankees 4 (Push 9)

September 28 – Yankees 11, Red Sox 6 (Over 9 ½)
September 29 – Yankees 8, Red Sox 5 (Over 9 ½)
September 30 – Red Sox 10, Yankees 2 (Over 9)

Boston vs. New York (Yankee Stadium)
May 8 – Yankees 3, Red Sox 2 (Under 8 ½)
May 9 – Yankees 9, Red Sox 6 (Over 8 ½)
May 10 – Red Sox 5, Yankees 4 (Under 9 ½)

June 29 – Yankees 8, Red Sox 1 (Under 9 ½)
June 30 – Red Sox 11, Yankees 0 (Over 8 ½)
July 1 – Yankees 11, Red Sox 1 (Over 8 ½)
September 18 – Yankees 3, Red Sox 2 (Under 9)
September 19 – Yankees 10, Red Sox 1 (Over 8 ½)
September 20 – Red Sox 11, Yankees 6 (Over 8 ½)

Red Sox. Yankees. The preview should end here.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t. These two rivals are hooking up for the third time in three weeks, while meeting in the playoffs for the fourth time ever. Both Boston and New York each eclipsed the 100-win mark in the same season for the first time ever, while these two franchises are hooking up in the postseason for the first time since the Red Sox erased a 3-0 series deficit to shock the Yankees and capture the 2004 American League pennant.

The year prior, the Yankees walked-off past the Red Sox into the World Series on an Aaron Boone home run into left field in Game 7 of the ALCS. Fifteen years later, Boone has the Yankees in the playoffs in his first year as manager, opposite Boston’s Alex Cora, who is also in his first year as skipper of the Red Sox.

(You know the history, now how they got here)

The Red Sox jumped off the page in April by starting 17-2 and owning a dynamic 68-30 record through the All-Star break. The last time Boston won over 100 games came in 1946, when the Sox picked up 104 victories, but this year’s team set a new standard with 108 wins and a third consecutive AL East title. You can thank for Boston’s offense as offseason acquisition J.D. Martinez finished in the top three in the AL for batting average (.330), home runs (43), and runs batted in (130), while Mookie Betts captured the AL batting crown with a .346 average.

Chris Sale is still seeking his first Cy Young award and was on his way after a solid first two months. However, missed a month with a left shoulder injury in August, while not throwing more than five innings in his last five starts. Boston finished 18-9 in Sale’s 27 starts as he ranked third in the AL in strikeouts (237) and owned a better WHIP (0.86) than Verlander, Kluber, and Cole. In two starts against the Yankees this season, Sale shut down the Bronx Bombers by allowing one run in 13 innings of two blowout victories.

David Price will start Game 2 at Fenway Park for Boston as the former Cy Young winner will likely not step foot on the mound in the Bronx. Price picked up 16 victories for Boston following an injury-shortened 2017, but the Red Sox went 1-3 in his four starts against New York this season. Two of the losses came at Yankee Stadium in which he was tagged for 14 runs in only 8.2 innings of work. Price pitched out of the bullpen in last year’s playoff series against Houston, while his teams are 0-6 in his past six postseason starts since 2013.

The Yankees advanced past the Wild Card round for the second straight season after cruising past the Athletics, 7-2. New York extended its OVER streak to seven consecutive games thanks to home runs from its two big bats in Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. The Yankees will look to get off to a solid start in the ALDS as New York owns a 7-1 record in its past eight road series openers, while capturing four of six series openers against Boston this season.

Five Yankee sluggers knocked out at least 25 home runs this season (Judge, Stanton, Didi Gregorious, Miguel Andujar, and Aaron Hicks), while Stanton was one of four AL players to score and drive in 100 runs.

On the mound, Masahiro Tanaka stumbled in his final two starts by allowing nine runs in eight innings of work against Boston and Tampa Bay. Tanaka managed a 12-6 mark to win at least 12 games for the fifth time in five seasons, while posting a 7-1 road record. The Yankees split four matchups with the Red Sox when Tanaka started, as the right-hander gave up four runs in three of those outings.

Midseason acquisition J.A. Happ put together a perfect 7-0 record in 11 starts for New York after coming over from Toronto. Happ faced the Red Sox four times this season (twice with New York, twice with Toronto) as the southpaw gave up five runs in his last two starts in September in 12 innings of work. Luis Severino tossed four scoreless innings in Wednesday’s Wild Card win as he dominated the Red Sox in three home starts this season, but was 0-2 at Fenway Park.

The Red Sox have not reached the ALCS since winning the World Series back in 2013, while the Yankees have not made the World Series since capturing the title against Philadelphia in 2009. New York has won four of its past five American League Divisional Series since 2009, including rallying from a 2-0 deficit to beat Cleveland last season. The Yankees posted a perfect 5-0 record at home in the 2017 playoffs, while the Red Sox are 0-4 in their past four road playoff contests.

[StarDust Bum]

Red Sox, Yanks ready to rumble again
October 4, 2018
By The Associated Press

NEW YORK (AP) Fans have been waiting for another one of these rumbles: baseball's most-bitter rivals set to tangle again, this time as 100-win heavyweights in the playoffs.

Munson vs. Fisk, Pedro vs. Popeye , A-Rod vs. Varitek and earlier this year Brock Holt vs. Tyler Austin .

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees back at each other in the postseason for the first time in 14 years.

''We're a team that can play with anybody, and we're not afraid to go in there,'' Yankees center fielder Aaron Hicks said after a 7-2 wild-card win over Oakland sent New York to a best-of-five AL Division Series that starts Friday in Fenway Park.

Yankees fans were chanting ''We want Boston!'' during the late innings. The Red Sox tweeted ''We want New York'' after the final out in the Bronx.

''I think they're ready and relish the opportunity to go up against the game's best this year,'' Yankees rookie manager Aaron Boone said of his players.

That is the same Aaron Boone whose 11th-inning homer in Game 7 of the 2003 AL Championship Series beat the Red Sox. A year later Boston overcame the Yankees and became the first major league team to bounce back from a 3-0 postseason deficit. The Red Sox went on to win their first World Series since 1918, but Boone's drive off Tim Wakefield has not been forgotten or forgiven.

Boston was 10-9 against the Yankees this year and set a club record with 108 wins under new manager Alex Cora, boosted by MVP candidate Mookie Betts, slugger J.D. Martinez and ace Chris Sale. New York finished eight games back and became the first team since the 2001 Athletics to reach triple digits in wins and fail to finish first - New York also set the major league mark for home runs, powered by the likes of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.

These teams also have a history of hitting each other.

Back on April 11, Austin charged the mound at Fenway after Red Sox reliever Joe Kelly threw at him twice, hitting Austin in the side with the second pitch. Boston players were livid Austin slid spikes-first into shortstop Brock Holt earlier in the game. A bench-clearing brawl led to suspensions and fines, but Auston won't be around for a rematch - he was dealt to Minnesota in July.

''It's Yankees-Red Sox. That's what everybody wants. That's what they got,'' Red Sox star pitcher David Price said then.

Just another in a long history of bad blood between rivals a little more than 200 miles apart.

Boston player-manager Joe Cronin and New York outfielder Jake Powell fought on the field and beneath the Yankee Stadium stands in 1938, and Jimmy Piersall of the Red Sox and Billy Martin of the Yankees brawled beneath Fenway Park's stands in 1952.

A fight broke out in 1967 at Yankee Stadium after New York's Thad Tillotson hit Joe Foy with a pitch and Boston's Jim Lonborg hit Tillotson - who after the scrap hit Dick Howser with a pitch.

In 1973, Thurman Munson crashed into catcher Carlton Fisk at Fenway after Gene Michael missed a bunt, and the All-Stars fought. Then at Yankee Stadium in 1976, New York's Lou Piniella charged into Fisk at the plate , and Boston pitcher Bill Lee was body-slammed during the fighting and wound up with a broken collarbone.

A notorious brawl took place during Game 3 of the 2003 AL Championship series, when Red Sox ace Pedro Martinez threw 72-year-old Don Zimmer to the ground.

Zimmer, a former Boston manager and then a Yankees coach, ran across the infield and lunged at Martinez during the fighting.

Then the following July, Boston's Bronson Arroyo hit New York's Alex Rodriguez with a pitch, A-Rod stared at the pitch as he walked toward first, catcher Jason Varitek got between them and pushed the AL MVP, leading to dugouts and bullpens emptying.

That October the rivals met again in the 2004 ALCS. The Yankees took a 3-0 lead and were one inning from reaching the World Series when Mariano Rivera walked Kevin Millar and pinch-runner Dave Roberts - now the Los Angeles Dodgers manager - stole second. Bill Mueller hit a tying single and the Red Sox won 6-4 in 12 innings when David Ortiz hit a game-ending, two-run homer at 1:22 a.m.

Boston won 5-4 the next day on Ortiz's RBI single in the 14th inning, won Game 6 in New York 4-2 behind Curt Schilling and his bloody sock, then blew out the Yankees 10-3 in the finale.

''All empires fall sooner or later,'' Red Sox president Larry Lucchino said.

Boston swept St. Louis in the World Series, swept Colorado four years later and beat the Cardinals in a six-game series in 2013. Over that same span, the Yankees have won just one title, in 2009.

Fast forward to this week, with the teams ready to meet again.

''It's going to be intense,'' New York pitcher CC Sabathia said.