MLB 2018 Season Long Thread Thru the World Series / Picks,Trends,News Etc. !!

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, JULY 15
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TOR at BOS 01:05 PM
TOR +134
O 9.5

NYY at CLE 01:10 PM
NYY +130
O 9.0

PHI at MIA 01:10 PM
MIA +102
U 8.0

WAS at NYM 01:10 PM
NYM +129
O 9.5

MIL at PIT 01:35 PM
MIL +103
O 8.0

ARI at ATL 01:35 PM
ATL +115
U 8.0

TB at MIN 02:10 PM
TB +100
U 9.0

DET at HOU 02:10 PM
DET +347
O 7.5

KC at CHW 02:10 PM
CHW -114
O 9.5

CIN at STL 02:15 PM
CIN +138
O 8.5

SEA at COL 03:10 PM
SEA +141
U 11.0

OAK at SF 04:05 PM
SF -119
U 7.5

LAA at LAD 04:10 PM
LAA +201
U 7.5

CHC at SD 04:10 PM
SD +126
O 8.5

[StarDust Bum]

Machado homers as Orioles beat Rangers 6-5
July 15, 2018

BALTIMORE (AP) Manny Machado homered before making an early exit, Adam Jones hit a three-run double and the Baltimore Orioles rallied past the Texas Rangers 6-5 Sunday.

Machado was removed in the fifth inning by manager Buck Showalter after a 26-minute rain delay, taking the All-Star shortstop off a sloppy field. The last-place Orioles are entertaining offers for Machado, who is expected to be dealt before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.

After being replaced by Jace Peterson, Machado sat in the dugout, wearing a sweatshirt and joking with his teammates.

In a matchup between two teams staggering into the All-Star break, Texas got a first-inning grand slam from rookie Ronald Guzman but quickly gave the lead away in losing for the seventh time in nine games.

Machado ignited the comeback with his 24th homer, and Jones' bases-clearing double in the third off Mike Minor (6-6) put Baltimore ahead to stay.

Tanner Scott (1-1) earned his first big league win. Zach Britton worked the ninth for his fourth save.

TIGERS 6, ASTROS 3

HOUSTON (AP) - John Hicks hit one of Detroit's four home runs off Justin Verlander, and the Tigers snapped a six-game losing streak.

Verlander (9-5) struck out 12 in six innings in his first start against his former team. But he allowed a season-high six runs while dropping his third straight decision.

The 35-year-old Verlander earned 183 wins in 13 seasons with the Tigers. He was traded to Houston last year.

Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum and Jim Adduci also homered for Detroit. Drew VerHagen (1-2) got the win.

Yuli Gurriel scored two runs and hit a sacrifice fly in the ninth for the Astros. The defending World Series champions head into the All-Star break at 64-35.

CARDINALS 6, REDS 4

ST. LOUIS (AP) - Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler homered for St. Louis, making interim manager Mike Shildt a winner in his first game.

Shildt took over for Mike Matheny, who was fired late Saturday after six-plus seasons at the helm.

John Gant (3-3) picked up the win with four hitless innings. Jordan Hicks got three outs for his second save.

Cincinnati had won four of five. It is 35-26 since beginning the season 8-27.

Reds right-hander Anthony DeSclafani (4-2) was tagged for six runs in 3 1/3 innings.

RED SOX 5, BLUE JAYS 2

BOSTON (AP) - Xander Bogaerts homered in his first at-bat a day after hitting a game-ending grand slam, and the Red Sox entered the All-Star break with their best record since 1949.

Bogaerts and Brock Holt each drove in two runs for the major league-leading Red Sox (68-30), who have won 12 of their last 13 games.

Teoscar Hernandez hit a two-run homer for the Blue Jays (43-52). Toronto has dropped seven of 10.

Brandon Workman (2-0) got the win and All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel worked the ninth for his 30th save.

Toronto right-hander Marcus Stroman (2-7) was charged with four runs, three earned, and five hits in five innings.

INDIANS 5, YANKEES 2

CLEVELAND (AP) - Michael Brantley homered leading off the eighth inning, and the Indians beat the Yankees for a split of their four-game series.

One of six Cleveland players who will be in Washington for Tuesday's All-Star Game, Brantley broke a 2-2 tie by belting a pitch from Chad Green (5-2) into the seats in right for his 12th homer. The Indians added two more runs in the inning on a sacrifice fly by Yan Gomes and Green's wild pitch.

Carlos Carrasco (11-5) earned his first win in relief since July 19, 2014. Cody Allen worked the ninth for his 20th save.

Neil Walker homered for the Yankees, who enter the break 29 games over .500 and have the majors' second-best record.

PIRATES 7, BREWERS 6, 10 INNINGS

PITTSBURGH (AP) - Josh Bell hit a two-run double in the 10th inning, giving Pittsburgh a five-game sweep of Milwaukee and its sixth straight win overall.

With rain falling, Gregory Polanco and Colin Moran singled to put runners on the corners for Bell, who drove a pitch from Dan Jennings (3-3) into the gap in right-center. The relay throw beat Moran home but trickled through the legs of catcher Erik Kratz.

Brett Phillips drove in four runs for Milwaukee, including an RBI single in the 10th off Tanner Anderson (1-0).

The Pirates scored twice in the ninth off Milwaukee closer Corey Knebel. Pinch-hitter David Freese tied the game with an RBI triple.

BRAVES 5, DIAMONDBACKS 1

ATLANTA (AP) - Julio Teheran pitched 6 1/3 scoreless innings, and the Braves used a four-run third inning to get the win.

It was a needed confidence boost before the All-Star break for Atlanta, which had lost eight of 10. Teheran (7-6) allowed four hits, struck out six and walked three.

Arizona has lost 10 of 16, but it began the day leading the NL West by one-half game.

Diamondbacks left-hander Patrick Corbin (6-4) allowed four runs and six hits in six innings. He struck out three, a season low.

MARLINS 10, PHILLIES 5

MIAMI (AP) - Brian Anderson hit a three-run homer in Miami's eight-run fifth inning.

Miami totaled eight hits in the fifth against three pitchers. Cameron Maybin homered and singled in the inning, and Justin Bour had two singles, with his second hit driving in the final two runs for an 8-5 lead.

The rally lasted so long Phillies first baseman Carlos Santana headed for the dugout after the second out, apparently thinking the inning was over. Instead Miami scored four more runs.

Cesar Hernandez hit a bases-loaded triple during a five-run fourth for Philadelphia. Edubray Ramos (3-1) got the loss.

The Marlins totaled 15 hits. Elieser Hernandez (2-5) threw a scoreless fifth for the win.

NATIONALS 6, METS 1

NEW YORK (AP) - Daniel Murphy and Trea Turner each hit a two-run single in Washington's five-run seventh inning.

Matt Adams added two hits and scored a run as Washington salvaged a split of its four-game set against New York. A preseason favorite to win the NL East and contend for a World Series championship, the disappointing Nationals hit the All-Star break with a 48-48 record, good for third in the division.

Jeremy Hellickson (4-1) pitched six crisp innings in his second straight win. The veteran right-hander allowed one run and two hits.

New York wasted a solid start by Corey Oswalt, who allowed two hits in five innings. Anthony Swarzak (0-2) got the loss.

WHITE SOX 10, ROYALS 1

CHICAGO (AP) - Daniel Palka and Yoan Moncada homered, Lucas Giolito tossed two-hit ball into the seventh inning and the White Sox won for the third time in four games.

Moncada had three hits and scored three times a day after leaving Saturday's 5-0 loss with a bruised right knee. Palka also had three hits and drove in two runs.

Adalberto Mondesi homered leading off the eighth for the last-place Royals, who are 2-11 in July. Burch Smith (0-1) allowed two runs and three hits in two innings.

Giolito (6-8) permitted just two hits in 6 1/3 scoreless innings.

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SCHEDULE FOR TUESDAY JULY 17, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:00 PM National League All-Stars American League All-Stars Nationals Park

SCHEDULE FOR THURSDAY JULY 19, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
7:05 PM St. Louis Cardinals Chicago Cubs Wrigley Field

SCHEDULE FOR FRIDAY JULY 20, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
2:20 PM St. Louis Cardinals Chicago Cubs Wrigley Field
7:05 PM Atlanta Braves Washington Nationals Nationals Park
7:05 PM New York Mets New York Yankees Yankee Stadium
7:05 PM San Diego Padres Philadelphia Phillies Citizens Bank Park
7:07 PM Baltimore Orioles Toronto Blue Jays Rogers Centre
7:10 PM Boston Red Sox Detroit Tigers Comerica Park
7:10 PM Miami Marlins Tampa Bay Rays Tropicana Field
7:10 PM Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds Great American Ball Park
8:05 PM Cleveland Indians Texas Rangers Globe Life Park in Arlington
8:10 PM Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers Miller Park
8:15 PM Minnesota Twins Kansas City Royals Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium
9:35 PM San Francisco Giants Oakland Athletics Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
9:40 PM Colorado Rockies Arizona Diamondbacks Chase Field
10:07 PM Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels Angel Stadium of Anaheim
10:10 PM Chicago White Sox Seattle Mariners Safeco Field


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JULY'S MLB OVERALL PICKS:

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

07/15/2018 11-17-0 39.29% -21.25
07/14/2018 16-13-1 55.17% +10.75
07/13/2018 9-20-1 31.03% -59.95
07/12/2018 7-12-1 36.84% -24.40
07/11/2018 16-14-0 53.33% +9.75
07/10/2018 19-11-0 63.33% +47.05
07/09/2018 11-14-1 44.00% -16.35
07/08/2018 17-13-0 56.67% +18.45
07/07/2018 12-13-1 48.00% +2.75
07/06/2018 16-13-1 55.17% +11.80
07/05/2018 7-9-0 43.75% -16.55
07/04/2018 15-14-1 51.72% +4.20
07/03/2018 14-13-1 51.85% +4.80
07/02/2018 11-7-0 61.11% +25.35
07/01/2018 3-7-0 30.00% -23.50

TOTALS........184 - 191......49.06%......-27.10


DATE............................ATS............... ...UNITS.....................O/U......................UNITS.............TOTAL

07/15/2018...................3 - 9................-16.80....................7 - 7.....................-3.50..............-20.30
07/14/2018...................4 - 5................-2.00....................10 - 5....................+22.50...........+20.50
07/13/2018...................1 - 7................-26.10....................6 - 8....................-14.00.............-40.10
07/12/2018...................2 - 5................-36.95....................5 - 4....................+3.00..............-33.95
07/11/2018...................4 - 4................+8.05.....................7 - 7....................-3.50...............+4.55
07/10/2018...................4 - 3................+18.60..................10 - 5...................+22.50............+41.10
07/09/2018...................3 - 4................+4.75.....................6 - 6....................-3.00...............+1.75
07/08/2018...................3 - 3................+7.60.....................6 - 9....................-19.50.............-11.90
07/07/2018...................3 - 4................+6.50.....................7 - 5....................+7.50.............+14.00
07/06/2018...................2 - 4.................-6.70.....................8 - 6....................+7.00..............+0.30
07/05/2018...................1 - 3.................-9.75.....................4 - 4.....................-2.00..............-11.75
07/04/2018...................2 - 4.................-6.00.....................6 - 9.....................-19.50.............-25.50
07/03/2018...................2 - 5.................-36.20...................6 - 7......................-8.50..............-44.70
07/02/2018...................3 - 1................+18.75...................5 - 4.....................+3.00.............+21.75
07/01/2018...................3 - 6.................-17.00...................6 - 9......................-19.50............-36.50

TOTALS......................40 - 65...............-93.25...................99 -95....................-28.00..............-121.25

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s 6-pack

Most 3-pointers made in player’s first 2 years in NBA:

1- Damian Lillard (403)
2- Buddy Hield (324)
3- Klay Thompson (322)
4- Stephen Curry (317)
5- Damon Stoudamire (309)
6- Kyle Korver (307)

Quote of the Day
“Nothing ends well, or else it wouldn’t end.”
Bryan Brown, in the movie Cocktail

Monday’s quiz
When was the last time two brothers played in the same All-Star Game?

Sunday’s quiz
Texas Rangers were the Washington Senators before moving to the Lone Star State.

Saturday’s quiz
Houston Astrodome was the first indoor stadium in major league baseball.

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Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend…….

13) 7,874 players entered the Main Event at World Series of Poker; first prize was $8.8M, and the last two guys played heads-up for 10.5 hours and 199 hands before a winner was decided. I tried to stay up for the whole thing, but eventually, I came to my senses.

12) Around 4:40am, ESPN’s hole card camera went down; without that, watching poker on TV is like watching paint dry, but it came back on after a few hands. Analyst Antonio Esfandiari had to leave in the middle because he was playing in a $1M buy-in tournament on Sunday and needed his rest. I wasn’t involved in any million dollar stuff, so I stayed up for a while and watched.

11) At 5:05 am, one of the players, who was wearing a Tim Tebow Florida jersey, was doing jumping jacks during a commercial. He had a Russell Wilson Seahawks jersey on the other night, which made me want to root against him. He finished second, and won $5M, so they were actually playing for $3.8M and the gold bracelet.

10) They were advertising a pay site where you could watch poker tournament 100 days a year. Do other poker players watch these tournaments to scout opponents or to learn stuff? Why else would you pay to watch poker tournaments?

9) Home Run Derby used to be a daytime thing; they had no idea what they had. On the other hand, has the popularity of Home Run Derby hurt the actual All-Star Game?

8) Judge-Trout-Stanton skipping out on HR Derby reminds me of when the NBA had this great 1-on-1 contest for two years in the early 70’s— it was awesome, until Julius Erving’s agent would not let him play, figuring he had nothing to gain by participating.

Dr J’s skipping the event pretty much put the kibosh on it, which was too bad, since it was great theater. Portland’s Larry Steele made the Final Four of the tournament one year; good for him, but no one was turning on their TV to watch Larry freakin’ Steele play 1-on-1.

(No offense to Larry Steele, but you get the point)

The games were to 20, had to win by more than 2 points, I think. May not have this 100% right, but pretty sure Bob Lanier, a 6-11 lefty center won a game 50-46, I think over Connie Hawkins, who was a similar player to Giannis Antetokounmpo in today’s game.

ESPN Classic should run those games back; pretty sure they were on ABC.

7) Could you imagine a Westbrook-Durant matchup in a 1-on-1 tournament on national TV? How great would that be?

7) Tampa Bay C Wilson Ramos tweaked his hamstring Saturday and is likely headed to the DL. Salvador Perez is now the AL starter behind the plate.

5) If you’re the St Louis Cardinals, how do you not hire Joe Girardi as manager, unless you acknowledge that today’s ballplayers are so soft that you have to hire a manager who doesn’t criticize players as much as they sometimes need to be criticized?

4) Miami pitcher Jose Urena put his glove over his mouth during a mound conference during Sunday’s game, which made me think: Are there bilingual lip readers?

3) I’m going to run a couple of lists during the All-Star break about my favorite movies; I’m a big fan of John Grisham’s books, but none of those movies made my non-sports movie list, so I’ll point out here that my two favorite Grisham movies are Runaway Jury and the Pelican Brief.

2) Mets TV guy Gary Cohen was openly questioning Sunday why Jose Reyes is playing every day; you don’t get a lot of stuff like on local TV broadcasts. Honesty.

Speaking of the Mets, my friend Bob reports that Michael Conforto’s career batting average in Met wins in .328, in Met losses .176. Of the 3,300 players with 500+ plate appearances since 1900, that is the widest difference in batting average between wins and losses.

1) Always wanted to research this, but never have; the %age of first-pitch swings the day before the All-Star break, as opposed to all the other days. You know guys have their bags packed for their 4-day vacations. Umpires, too.

[StarDust Bum]

2018 Home Run Derby Odds
July 15, 2018

All-Star festivities in Major League Baseball begin on Monday night at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. with the annual Home Run Derby. There will be a new winner in 2018 as defending champion Aaron Judge will not participate after the Yankees' slugger drilled 47 home runs to capture the title last July in Miami.

Hometown favorite Bryce Harper vowed that he would swing away in Home Run Derby as long as he was voted to the All-Star team. The Nationals' fan received their wish as Harper is participating in this event for the first time since 2013, when he lost to Mets' outfielder Yoenis Cespedes in the finals.

Harper is currently tied for second in the National League in home runs with 23 round-trippers and is listed as the favorite to win the derby at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook at 11/4 odds (Bet $100 to win $375).

The leader in home runs in the NL is Milwaukee's Jesus Aguilar with 24, as the first baseman is one of four sluggers listed at 6/1 odds to win the title, alongside Dodgers' first baseman Max Muncy (22 HR), Braves' first baseman Freddie Freeman (16 HR), and Cubs' outfielder Kyle Schwarber (18 HR).

Interestingly enough, the two home runs leaders in the American League are not giving it a shot in the derby as Boston's J.D. Martinez (29 HR) and Cleveland's Jose Ramirez (29 HR) are taking a pass. The lone AL contestant is Astros' third baseman Alex Bregman (20 HR), who sits at 8/1 odds.

Below are the odds for Monday’s festivities from the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook:

Odds to win 2018 Home Run Derby

Bryce Harper (WSH) 11/4
Jesus Aguilar (MIL) 6/1
Max Muncy (LAD) 6/1
Freddie Freeman (ATL) 6/1
Kyle Schwarber (CHC) 6/1
Rhys Hoskins (PHI) 7/1
Javier Baez (CHC) 8/1
Alex Bregman (HOU) 8/1

Home Run Derby - 1st Round Matchup Odds

Rhys Hoskins (PHI) +115
Jesus Aguilar (MIL) - 135

Freddie Freeman (ATL) +170
Bryce Harper (WSH) - 200

Kyle Schwarber (CHC) - 150
Alex Bregman (HOU) +130

Javier Baez (CHC) +130
Max Muncy (LAD) - 150

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Win Total Update - AS Break
July 15, 2018

Over three months of the 2018 pro baseball season are in the books and bettors investing in “Win Total” wagers can start to get a clearer picture on their investments. Listed below are each team’s win totals and their records through July 15 along with their projection to go ‘over’ or ‘under’ this season.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WIN TOTALS
Team Win Total - 2018 Record on 7/15/18 Projection
Arizona Diamondbacks 85 ½ 53-44
Atlanta Braves 74 ½ 52-42
Chicago Cubs 94 ½ 55-38
Cincinnati Reds 73 ½ 43-53
Colorado Rockies 82 51-45
Los Angeles Dodgers 96 ½ 53-43
Miami Marlins 64 ½ 41-57
Milwaukee Brewers 84 ½ 55-43
New York Mets 81 39-55
Philadelphia Phillies 75 ½ 53-42
Pittsburgh Pirates 73 48-49
San Diego Padres 69 ½ 40-59
San Francisco Giants 81 ½ 50-48
St. Louis Cardinals 85 ½ 48-46
Washington Nationals 92 ½ 48-48

AMERICAN LEAGUE WIN TOTALS
Team Win Total - 2018 Record on 7/15/18 Projection
Baltimore Orioles 73 28-69
Boston Red Sox 91 ½ 68-30
Chicago White Sox 68 33-62
Cleveland Indians 94 ½ 52-43
Detroit Tigers 68 ½ 41-57
Houston Astros 96 ½ 64-35
Kansas City Royals 71 ½ 27-67
Los Angeles Angels 84 ½ 49-48
Minnesota Twins 82 ½ 44-50
New York Yankees 94 ½ 62-33
Oakland Athletics 74 ½ 55-42
Seattle Mariners 81 ½ 58-39
Tampa Bay Rays 77 ½ 49-47
Texas Rangers 77 ½ 41-56
Toronto Blue Jays 81 43-52

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Tuesday's Top Wager
July 17, 2018

All-Star Game Betting: American League vs. National League

The glorified exhibition that is the MLB All-Star Game could take a turn for the better this season with a collection of young talent on display. The Midsummer Classic is always difficult to handicap given the continuous roster moves, pitchers throwing maybe one inning at most and the overall motivation of the players involved. But it is a spectacle and all eyes will be on Nationals Park at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, July 17.

The American League has gotten the better of the action lately winning the last five matchups and 12 of previous 15 games. However, over the history of the event the slate is even at 43 wins apiece with a pair of ties. The AL has arguably the better roster and is a -131 favorite to win its sixth consecutive game.

American League vs. National League
Date and Time: Tuesday, July 17, 2018, 8 p.m. ET
Location: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
MLB Odds: AL -131, NL +118, O/U 7
TV Coverage: FOX

The 89th edition of the Midsummer Classic has a twist that bettors should be aware of. Though the game is hosted by the Washington Nationals, the NL will play as the visiting team since each of the previous three contests were played in a NL park. It doesn’t seem like much, but considering how close a majority of the previous games have been the last at-bat could prove meaningful. And it might be worth it to drop a wager on the NL as the senior circuit looks to reverse a trend that’s seen them lose 17 of the last 21 games.

Let’s face it, the entire event is a crapshoot. It’s up to NL manager Dave Roberts and his AL counterpart A.J. Hinch to get as many players in the game as possible while not overdoing it. The starters will play a few innings at most with maybe a couple of at-bats. Typically the game is dominated on the hill with pitchers cutting loose for an inning. The total opened at 7 and the teams played over that number just three times in the last 10 games.

For the second straight year will get a pitching matchup of Chris Sale against Max Scherzer and both were terrific last season. After two innings at most they’ll be replaced and the other hurlers will get a chance. It’s always difficult for hitters when facing a pitcher just one time and being in the opposite league means you see that thrower even less. Advantage pitcher.

And that’s why the run totals have been low. And keep in mind that every team must have a representative at the game, so players like Jose Abreu of the White Sox, Joe Jimenez of the Tigers and Jose Berrios of the Twins are on the AL roster over more deserving players.

Simply looking at the numbers, the AL starters appear to have an advantage. They have the hitting of Jose Altuve and Mookie Betts, and the power from Mike Trout, Manny Machado, Jose Ramirez, J.D. Martinez and Aaron Judge. However, there is a considerable dropoff in talent on the bench and the NL has a more balanced roster, including reserves and bullpen. That makes me believe the NLers are worth taking at positive money.

American League vs. National League Picks

We don’t know how games are going to turn out and this one is even more difficult to handicap. With the squads no longer playing for home field advantage in the World Series, the only thing left is pride. And for most it’s all about the experience of playing in the All-Star Game. The AL was hurt more by injury replacements and has a few more that were given the opportunity because their team needed representation. The starting lineup, however, is deadly and should plate a few runs.

Once the game gets turned over to reserves, the NL has the more balanced roster and will make a charge in the middle innings. And outside of a few gifted arms on each side, the pitchers are hittable. I like the chance of seeing runs scored and the over has plenty of value with rosters stocked with mashers. The senior circuit will do enough both on the mound and at the dish to end the drought and get a victory.

American League vs. National League Pick: NL +118 and the Over

American League vs. National League Score Prediction: NL 6, AL 4

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Scherzer starts in home park against Sale in All-Star Game rematch
July 16, 2018

WASHINGTON -- A certain sense of deja vu will pervade the start of the 89th All-Star Game on Tuesday night at Nationals Park.

Washington right-hander Max Scherzer will oppose Boston left-hander Chris Sale in a repeat of last year's Midsummer Classic matchup. It marks the first time since 1940 (Red Ruffing of the New York Yankees vs. Paul Derringer of the Cincinnati Reds) that starting pitchers have faced each other for two straight seasons.

It's the third straight start for Sale (10-4, 2.23 ERA), who joins Hall of Famers Lefty Gomez and Robin Roberts as the only pitchers to start three straight games.

"He's truly a special pitcher in this league and truly someone who deserves this honor," American League manager A.J. Hinch said at Monday's press conference.

Scherzer (12-5, 2.41) got the nod over New York Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom, who boasts a league-best 1.68 ERA.

Roberts said it was a close decision. The tiebreaker was the fact that the game is being played in Scherzer's home park.

"I think that it's (about) trying to make the game bigger than all of us, and I think the game is about the fans, and obviously, his intensity," Roberts said. "I'm looking forward to it and Jacob will pitch right behind him."

Tuesday night marks the fifth All-Star Game in Washington and the first since 1969.

After 88 All-Star Games, the series is knotted 43-43-2 and the scores add up to 361 runs for both teams.

Last season, the American League defeated the National League 2-1 at Marlins Park in Miami, marking the NL's fifth consecutive victory. The AL has won 12 of the last 15 and 17 of 21. Nine of the last 13 have been decided by two runs or less.

Mookie Betts of the Red Sox will lead off for the AL and J.D. Martinez of the Cleveland Indians will bat cleanup. For the NL, Javier Baez of the Chicago Cubs bats first and Freddie Freeman of the Atlanta Braves cleans up.

St. Louis catcher Yadier Molina is making his ninth appearance, and there are 17 first-time All-Stars on the NL roster and 15 on the AL squad.

Baltimore's Manny Machado, expected to be traded any day now, is making his fourth appearance. He was swarmed during Monday's media availability.

Scherzer is an All-Star for the sixth time.

"I can only imagine what it's going to be like to have the Nats fans here supporting all of us, Bryce (Harper) and (inactive Sean) Doolittle, as well," Scherzer said. "It's just an honor to be able to have that recognition and go out there and start this thing again, because this is just a dream come true."

Sale is also a veteran of six previous games, making him a target of younger guys like Tampa Bay first-timer Blake Snell (12-5, 2.27) who want to pick his brain. The two had breakfast Monday morning.

"I thought it was funny because when you look at the year he's having, I don't think he needs to talk to anybody or ask any questions," Sale said of Snell.

Though the game no longer matters in terms of home-field advantage for the World Series, Scherzer and others were obvious in their desire to win.

"Definitely we're competitive," first-time All-Star J.T. Realmuto of the Miami Marlins said. "Any time you strap up to play a game you want to compete and you want to win, so there's definitely going to be some pride in this thing."

[StarDust Bum]

Pick posted later

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

— SEC football Media Week ain’t the same without Les Miles.

— Superstitious much? There are no Gate 13’s in McCarran Airport in Las Vegas.

— Ole Miss basketball coach Mike White is only 41, but has lived in 14 different states

— Georgia football coach Kirby Smart was a Finance major in college.

— Purdue has a QB named Nick Sipe whose uncle is Brian Sipe, the terrific QB for the Browns who also played for the Jacksonville Bulls in the USFL.

— Last seven years, Ohio St/Northwestern are only two Big 14 football teams that have been plus in turnovers in all seven years.


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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) San Antonio Spurs traded Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green to Toronto for DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl and a protected 2019 1st-round pick.

Over the last five years, the Raptors went 263-147 in the regular season, only 21-30 in playoff games, so they fired their coach and traded their best player. We’ll see how that works out.

12) I’m thinking managing a major league team now has to be more difficult than it used to be; back when I was a kid, guys like Sparky Anderson, Earl Weaver, Dick Williams were big names who unquestionably ran their teams- that doesn’t exist anymore.

Front office/analytics types run the show on most teams now; managers with strong personalities don’t get hired as much or don’t keep their jobs— see Joe Girardi.

Managers, by the very nature of their jobs, dictate the tone of their teams, but they dictate less and less of their team’s tactics and roster management, but they still have to answer to the press, which can’t be a lot of fun.

11) On July 17, 1963, Braves-Giants played a game in San Francisco, Spahn vs Marichal, two Hall of Fame pitchers.

Game was scoreless into the 16th inning with both pitchers going whole way, when Willie Mays ended it with a solo-homer off Spahn. Marichal threw 227 pitches and Spahn threw 201.

If that happened today, both managers would’ve been fired after the game.

10) One of the coolest nights I’ve spent in Las Vegas was during this week back in 2015, late on a Wednesday night.

Diamondbacks game in Phoenix went 14 or 15 innings, ran very late; at same time, live coverage from the BBC or some channel in England had live first round coverage of the British Open on, so you could watch live action on TV’s next to each other, one on Wednesday night, the other Thursday morning. It was oddly fun.

9) All nine people who made the final table at the World Series of Poker made $1M+; the winner got $8.8M, runner-up got $5M— no wonder he was smiling in the pictures afterwards.

8) They had another poker tournament that ran Sunday-Tuesday, 27 people entered with a buy-in of $1M. Top 5 cashed, the other 22 had to explain to their wives why they blew $1M to play cards for a couple nights.

Guy who won took home $10M and he was losing for most of the heads-up period.

7) Golfer Hideki Matsuyama finished in the top-20 in each of the last seven majors and 11 of the last 14.

6) From gambling expert Bill Krackomberger, talking about the start of legalized sports betting in New Jersey:

“…….of the $15.4 million wagered, the casinos/state won just under $3.5 million in 16 days. That is a hold percentage of over 22%. In relation, Nevada’s hold for 2017 was 5.1%.”

KL Wheat reported in from New Jersey Wednesday:

“…….went to bet Ricky Fowler at 17-1 on board, went to bet 10 seconds later, it was 12-1.” That was at Monmouth— he got 16-1 on Fowler at Borgata.

5) Back in 1983, Donald Trump could’ve bought the Dallas Cowboys for $50M but passed; now they’re worth $4.8B. Thats billion, with a B.

4) Of the eight guys in Home Run Derby this year, only Harper/Freeman are making more than $660,000 this season. MLB needs more established stars to do Home Run Derby.

3) One really cool thing about the derby this year is that the two finalists both had unusual guys throwing to them. Had to be a ton of pressure on these guys to throw hittable pitches.

Bruce Harper had his dad throwing to him, which is great- Robinson Cano’s dad threw to him a few years ago, and Kyle Schwarber’s buddy threw to him- the graphic actually said under the guy’s name “Kyle’s friend”

2) Apparently, Juwan Howard holds an NBA record he had 236 different teammates during his long playing career. Vince Carter could break that record this year if he plays; he’s had 228 different teammates in his career.

1) Imagine being A’s reliever Blake Treinen Tuesday night; run out of Washington last summer, exiled to Oakland because he was having a bad year (5.73 ERA in 37.2 IP).

Now he has 24 saves for an Oakland team that is a surprise contender in the AL Wild Card race, and he has been awesome. He comes back to Washington a year after they ran him out of town and he is a freakin’ All-Star. That had to be tremendous.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Thursday, July 19


Top Five OVER Teams:

1. Reds 51-40-5
2. Indians 50-41-4
3. Athletics 47-42-8
4. Marlins 50-46-2
5. Pirates 47-44-6


Top Five UNDER Teams:

1. Nationals 56-38-2
2. Tigers 56-39-3
3. Orioles 54-39-4
4. Rays 54-40-4
5. Royals 51-40-4


Top Five Homer Umpires (based on home win %, min. 6 games behind home plate):

1. Nick Mahrley (6-0) $647
2. Mike DiMuro (14-2) $1410
3. Roberto Ortiz (8-2) $798
4. David Rackley (11-3) $745
5. Bill Welke (14-5) $844


Top Five Roadie Umpires (based on away team win %, min. 6 games behind home plate):

1. Ben May 12-0
2. Jim Reynolds 14-5
3. Dan Iassogna 5-2
t4. Mike Winters 11-6
t4. Adam Hamari 11-6


Top Five Money Starters (based on $100 wager per start):

1. Luis Severino, NYY (18-2) $1435
2. Jon Lester, CHC (16-3) $1275
3. Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS (16-3) $1160
4. Mike Fiers, DET (11-7) $943
5. Gerrit Cole, HOU (16-4) $893


Worst Five Money Starters (based on $100 wager per start):

278. Tanner Roark, WAS (5-14) $-1263
277. Kyle Hendricks, CHC (7-12) $-1251
276. Alex Cobb, BAL (3-14) $-1085
275. Kevin Gausman, BAL (5-14) $-974
274. Justin Verlander, HOU (12-9) $-952


Top Five Money Teams (based on $100 wager per game):

1. Boston Red Sox (68-30) $2318
2. Oakland A's (55-42) $1874
3. Seattle Mariners (58-39) $1589
4. Atlanta Braves (52-42) $1208
5. Philadelphia Phillies (53-42) $1140


Worst Five Money Teams (based on $100 wager per game):

30. Baltimore Orioles (28-69) $-3716
29. Kansas City Royals (27-68) $-3033
28. Chicago White Sox (33-62) $-1813
27. Washington Nationals (48-48) $-1782
26. New York Mets (39-55) $1667

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, July 19


National League
Cardinals (48-46) @ Cubs (55-38)
Martinez is 3-1, 3.00 in his last four starts; over is 5-1 in his last six starts. Team in his starts: 9-7, 4-3 on road.
5-inning record: 7-7-2. Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-16

Hendricks is 1-0, 2.95 in his last three starts; under is 10-4-1 in his last 15. Team in his starts: 7-12, 4-5 at home
5-inning record: 5-8-6. Allowed run in 1st inning: 10-19

St Louis lost three of its last four games; they’re 8-7 in road series openers. Five of their last six games went over. Cubs won six of their last eight games; they’re 8-8 in home series openers. Last four Chicago games went over.

______________________________

Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total)- thru 7/15
Ariz 24-19-5……22-18-8……..46-37
Atl 22-20-7…..21-16-8………43-36
Cubs 18-20-12……20-16-7…….38-36
Reds 16-29-4……18-24-4….…34-53
Colo 26-14-12……26-15-5……51-30
LA 21-17-6…….25-18-11……47-35
Miami 18-24-5…..20-22-10…….38-46
Milw 20-22-8…..26-18-4…….46-40
Mets 19-23-2……17-21-13…..36-42
Philly 20-19-10…..24-14-7……44-33
Pitt 18-20-6……25-17-11……..43-37
StL 23-18-5……21-23-4………44-41
SD 17-24-9……17-25-6…….34-48
SF 21-19-10…..17-20-11………38-38
Wash 21-19-10..…18-21-7………39-40

Orioles 12-26-10…….14-28-8……26-54
Boston 26-16-10……27-14-5……..53-30
W Sox 13-31-4…..…15-26-7…..…28-57
Indians 20-17-8……32-12-7……52-29
Det 18-24-8……20-21-10.……38-45
Astros 22-14-11……28-15-10…….50-28
KC 15-26-8…….15-25-7…..30-51
Angels 24-19-7……18-21-8……42-40
Twins 16-21-8……22-23-7…..38-44
NYY 25-15-9……27-13-7…….52-27
A’s 18-24-10……14-21-10……32-45
Seattle 26-19-7……23-15-10……49-33
TB 23-19-11……22-15-6……45-33
Texas 17-26-7…..14-27-6…….31-53
Toronto 13-25-8……16-23-11……29-48

%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 7/15)
Ariz 21-48…….16-49…..…36
Atl 16-49……16-45………32
Cubs 9-50……..17-43………26
Reds 11-49……..11-47………22
Colo 19-50…….21-46.……40
LA 13-44……..20-52..…..33
Miami 12-47……..14-51…….26
Milw 16-50…..…15-48……..31
Mets 17-43……..15-51…….32
Philly 10-49……..15-46…….25
Pitt 11-44……..16-53……..27
StL 15-46……..14-48…….29
SD 13-50……..12-49…….25
SF 10-48………17-51..…..27
Wash 18-50……..11-46……..29

Orioles 15-48……..15-49………29
Boston 14-51……19-47………32
White Sox 13-47……14-48…….26
Clev 13-45…….20-50……..33
Detroit 15-50……..15-48….…30
Astros 13-46…..…13-53………26
KC 14-49..…….12-46…….26
Angels 14-50…..….12-47…….26
Twins 12-43………12-51…….23
NYY 11-49……..18-46………29
A’s 11-52…..…..11-45…….22
Seattle 19-49………15-48……..33
TB 16-53..……14-43……..30
Texas 9-50…….…10-47……18
Toronto 9-46………11-49….…20

Interleague play- 2018
NL @ AL– 48-45 NL, favorites +$117
AL @ NL– 53-40 NL, favorites -$976
Total: 101-85 NL, favorites -$859

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Thursday, July 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games
St. Louis is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
St. Louis is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Chi Cubs
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
St. Louis is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games when playing Chi Cubs
St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
St. Louis is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Chicago Cubs
Chi Cubs is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Chi Cubs is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games
Chi Cubs is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Chi Cubs is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Chi Cubs's last 15 games at home
Chi Cubs is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing St. Louis
Chi Cubs is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing St. Louis
Chi Cubs is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
Chi Cubs is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Chi Cubs is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis


------------------------------------------------------------------

MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, July 19

St. Louis @ Chicago Cubs

Game 951-952
July 19, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Mrtinez) 13.996
Chicago Cubs
(Hendrcks) 17.289
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 3 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
-155
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(-155); N/A




MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, July 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (48 - 46) at CHICAGO CUBS (55 - 38) - 7:05 PM
CARLOS MARTINEZ (R) vs. KYLE HENDRICKS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 48-46 (-9.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 26-29 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1750-1800 (-264.8 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 375-308 (-77.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 934-838 (-156.4 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 432-385 (-82.6 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 111-90 (-19.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 82-69 (-17.6 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 125-111 (-36.1 Units) against the money line in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1997.
HENDRICKS is 7-12 (-12.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
HENDRICKS is 4-12 (-15.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 5-3 (+2.2 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.6 Units)

CARLOS MARTINEZ vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
MARTINEZ is 4-4 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 4.81 and a WHIP of 1.570.
His team's record is 9-6 (+3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-5. (+3.0 units)

KYLE HENDRICKS vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
HENDRICKS is 3-2 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.58 and a WHIP of 1.109.
His team's record is 8-4 (+4.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-5. (+1.7 units)

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Top Wager
July 19, 2018

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs MLB Preview

The Chicago Cubs headed into the All-Star Break on a hot streak, and are hoping a few days of inaction won’t cool them off. Chicago has jumped into first place in the National League Central on the strength of a three-game winning streak and hope to pull away from the pack in the next several weeks. One of the teams chasing them is the St. Louis Cardinals, who are aiming to stick around in the playoff hunt.

The Cardinals are in peril of falling too far behind and winning a head-to-head contest is big. They are hoping a managerial change will give the team a needed jolt. The teams will face off in the aftermath of the All-Star Break as the race to the playoffs begins in earnest. The Cubs are the superior team and get this contest at home so they will be the clear favorites in MLB betting.

Chicago has bigger goals than simply winning the division so every victory is key as it jockeys for position in the National League playoff race.

The MLB Baseball contest will be held at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. The game will take place on Thursday, July 19th, 2018, at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Odds Analysis

The odds have yet to be released but the Cubs will aim to make good on the oddsmakers’ belief in their prowess. Chicago has a record of 55-38 on the season and has gone 28-15 at home this season. The Cubs are certainly one of the best teams in the major leagues as they have a run-differential of plus-114 which is in line with their record.

The Cardinals are 48-46 on the year with a record of 24-22 on the road. They have a plus-11 run-differential and have looked like a .500 record for much of the year.

Probable Pitchers

The Cubs are expected to send right-hander Kyle Hendricks to the mound. He is 6-8 with a 3.92 ERA on the season. Hendricks isn’t a huge strikeout pitcher like so many others in the major leagues these days but he has a solid WHIP of 1.20 and always does a great job with his control. Hendricks has only allowed two earned runs in his past two starts spanning 13.1 innings and will aim for more success.

The Cardinals have yet to announce a starting pitcher for this one. The All-Star Break has allowed for many of their starters to get the requisite days off so they have multiple options. Keep a close eye on the decision as it will factor into the moneyline odds in this MLB betting matchup.

Coaching Change

The Cardinals recently fired manager Mike Matheny and named Mike Shildt his interim replacement. The team has some solid talent but Matheny was making questionable decisions and the front office decided it was time to bring in a new decision-maker on game days.

Teams will often become more focused in the days after a coaching change so it could be a fortutitous move at least for the short-term. It remains to be seen if there will be any change in philosophy or big lineup switches as a result.

Matheny found some success with the Cardinals but the organization felt like he was not getting enough out of the personnel in 2018 and he was given his walking papers. Shildt will aim to turn the season around in the second half.

Free MLB ATS Picks

The Cubs have surpassed the Brewers for first place in the N.L. Central and they don’t figure to look back. The 2016 World Series champions have the type of talent to make another deep playoff run in 2018. They will help distance themselves further from the Cardinals with a victory in this first game after the All-Star Break.

The Chicago hitters should be reinvigorated after a break and should come out hot in this matchup in MLB odds. Take the Cubs to win this game and cover the 1.5-runline.

MLB ATS Pick: Chicago Cubs 6, St. Louis Cardinals 3

[StarDust Bum]

2nd Half MLB Predictions
July 19, 2018

MLB Betting Predictions for the 2nd Half of the Season

The second half of the season has been underway for a little while now, although most of us see the period after the All-Star Break as the point when the second half truly begins. This is when teams make their final moves before the trade deadline, and when the final push for playoff spots really starts to heat up.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have made the biggest splash, landing Manny Machado in a trade with the Baltimore Orioles, a move that may cement their position as the class of the National League (NL Odds listed at YouWager.eu have the Dodgers at +400, right behind the Cubs at +350).

With each team still having over 60 games to play in the regular season, there is a lot that can still happen, so let’s make some predictions for the second half.

Wild Card Predictions

We have, in previous articles, talked about the potential division winners in each of the divisions.

To recap, I have the AL division winners being the Yankees, Indians, and Astros, while in the NL, I have the Braves, Cubs, and Dodgers. If that is indeed how things play out in the second half, then we still need to talk about the Wild Card match-ups. For me, the American League picture looks pretty clear cut.

One of the teams at the top of the East is going to be in the Wild Card, and since I have picked the Yankees to win the division, I am going with the Boston Red Sox for the WC. The Seattle Mariners would be their most likely opponent. In the NL, I have a sneaking suspicion that the Colorado Rockies are going to have a good second half and sneak in, while I think the Washington Nationals might also put things together well enough to make the Wild Card.

AL and NL MVP

It can be argued that Mike Trout is the best player in all of baseball right now, as he is the perfect mix of power and great defense, yet he plays with a team that always seems to underachieve. Trout is the current favorite to win the AL MVP, but I find it hard to look past J.D. Martinez of the Boston Red Sox.

His numbers are incredible, and if he can maintain that pace in the second half, the MVP is his to lose. Over in the NL, Freddie Freeman of the Atlanta Braves is the front-runner, and deservedly so. If the Braves can go and win the East, as I believe they will, and Freeman stays healthy, he will be your NL MVP.

100-Game Winners

100 wins in a single season is an incredible mark, and one that has served as the sign of a quality team and legitimate World Series contender for quite some time now. There are a few teams in the league who are flirting with that number this season, but how many will actually get there?

I would suggest that the Houston Astros will hit that magic number again, but they will not have the most wins in the league.
I believe that distinction will go to the New York Yankees by the very slightest margin, as I think they will edge past the Boston red Sox, who will also hit 100 wins. The LA Dodgers have some work to do, but the Manny Machado trade might just put them over the top.