MLB 2018 Season Long Thread Thru the World Series / Picks,Trends,News Etc. !!

[StarDust Bum]

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LAD at BOS 08:09 PM

LAD +153

U 7.5

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Red Sox beat Dodgers 8-4 at Fenway in World Series opener
October 23, 2018
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BOSTON (AP) The Fenway Funhouse proved too tricky, too cold and just too much for the beach boys.

Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez and the Boston Red Sox came out swinging in the World Series opener, seizing every advantage in their quirky ballpark to beat the Los Angeles Dodgers 8-4 on a chilly, windy Tuesday night.

Benintendi had four hits, Martinez drove in two early runs and pinch-hitter Eduardo Nunez golfed a three-run homer to seal it. The 108-win Red Sox got a solid effort from their bullpen after an expected duel between aces Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw never developed.

From the get-go, Fenway Park caused all sorts of problems for the Dodgers.

Mookie Betts led off for the Red Sox with a popup that twisted first baseman David Freese as he tried to navigate the tight foul space near the stands. Lost, he overran the ball and it dropped behind him.

Given a second chance, Betts lined a single that set up a two-run first inning.

''It was important for us to score first and kind of put some pressure on them,'' Betts said.

In the seventh, left fielder Joc Pederson looked hesitant as he chased Benintendi's soft fly, rushing toward the seats that jut out down the line. The ball ticked off his glove for a double, and soon Nunez connected to break open a 5-4 game.

The crowd and cold temperatures were no picnic for Los Angeles, either.

The oddly angled ballpark became an echo chamber even before the first pitch. Chants of ''Beat LA!'' began early, Kershaw got heckled with a sing-song serenade and Dodgers villain Manny Machado heard loud boos all evening.

Only one person wearing Dodger blue drew a cheer: Manager Dave Roberts, saluted in pregame introductions for the daring steal that turned the tide in Boston's 2004 playoff comeback against the Yankees.

It was 53 degrees at first pitch, the coldest game for Los Angeles this year and quite a contrast from last year's World Series, when it was a record 103 degrees for the opener at Dodger Stadium.

Game 2 is Wednesday night, when it's supposed to be even colder. David Price, fresh from beating Houston in the ALCS clincher, starts against Hyun-Jin Ryu.

Benintendi scored three times for Boston, trying for its fourth championship in 15 years.

Matt Kemp homered and Justin Turner had three hits for the Dodgers, aiming for their first crown since 1988. Machado drove in three runs, and his RBI grounder in the fifth inning made it 3-all.

Boston retook the lead in the bottom half when Xander Bogaerts hustled to beat out a potential inning-ending double play - Dodgers reliever Ryan Madson seemed to celebrate a little too early.

Rafael Devers followed with an RBI single, giving himself an early birthday present. He turned 22 at midnight, three minutes before the game ended.

Martinez led the majors with 130 RBIs, and gave the crowd a scare when his foot slipped rounding second base on a run-scoring double in the third. He fell hard, but soon got up.

A day before this opener, Kershaw and most of the Dodgers pooh-poohed the prospect that Fenway would cause them problems. Most of them had never played at the oldest park in the majors, built in 1912, but said they were sure they'd be OK.

It didn't quite turn out that way in their first trip to Fenway since 2010.

Besides, clubs coming to Beantown have other things to worry about.

''I think the biggest challenge for a team coming in here is you're playing the Boston Red Sox,'' pitcher Nathan Eovaldi said Monday.

The only other time the Dodgers and Red Sox met in the World Series was 1916, when Babe Ruth helped pitch Boston to the championship. Those games were at Braves Field, the bigger home park of the city's National League franchise.

Kershaw and Sale each started out wearing short sleeves, but neither warmed to the possibility of the marquee matchup. In similar outings, both were pulled before getting an out in the fifth.

Kershaw took the loss in his first appearance at Fenway, tagged for five runs on seven hits and three walks. The three-time NL Cy Young Award winner fell to 9-9 in the postseason, his October results often falling short of his brilliant regular-season resume.

Matt Barnes, the first of six Boston relievers, got the win. They combined to hold the Dodgers to one run on three hits in five innings.

Boston manager Alex Cora won in his first try guiding a club in the Series. This also marked the first World Series game between teams led by minority managers.

LUCKY CHARMS

Both teams had omens on their side.

Three gorgeous rainbows appeared over Fenway before the game, much like a colorful arc that came ahead of Boston's winning effort in the 2013 World Series.

The stadium organist played ''The Impossible Dream'' in a nod to Red Sox great Carl Yastrzemski. The 79-year-old Yaz bounced his ceremonial first pitch, asked for another try and did fine.

Magic Johnson was in the park, too. The former Lakers star, who heard plenty of ''Beat LA!'' chants at Boston Garden, is a part-time owner of the Dodgers and visited Fenway for the first time.

Plus this: On this date in 1945, Dodgers executive Branch Rickey announced the signing of Jackie Robinson.

UP NEXT

Price had been 0-9 in 11 postseason starts before pitching six scoreless innings to help close out the Astros in Game 5. Ryu was 1-1 with a 3.40 ERA in three playoff starts this year.

[StarDust Bum]

Column: Over-managing costs Dodgers in Game 1 of Series
October 24, 2018
By The Associated Press

Sometimes, in the pressure cooker of a World Series, a manager gets distracted by all those indecipherable charts and the trove of analytics he has at his disposable.

Sometimes, he spends too much time flailing around in search of the perfect matchup instead of just watching what's happening right before his eyes.

That's what happened to Dave Roberts of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

In a classic case of over-managing, Roberts helped send his team to an 8-4 loss in Game 1 Tuesday night against the Boston Red Sox by making one move too many in the decisive seventh inning.

The Dodgers were trailing only 5-4, despite another postseason flop by Clayton Kershaw, when Andrew Benintendi led off with his fourth hit of the game - a bloop down the left-field line that somehow managed to elude Joc Pederson before hopping into the stands for a rather fluky ground-rule double.

Roberts hustled to the mound to lift Julio Urias, summoning hard-throwing right-hander Pedro Baez from the bullpen.

Baez was left off the Dodgers' postseason roster a year ago, when Los Angeles made it all the way to Game 7 of the World Series before losing to Houston, but he's been a highly valued member of the relief corps in 2018. He worked 55 games during the regular season, going 4-3 with a 2.88 ERA. He worked a total of 6 2/3 scoreless innings during two playoff rounds, allowing just two hits while striking out 10.

Baez kept up his dominance against the Red Sox, striking out Mitch Moreland with three fastballs clocked at 96, 97 and 96 mph - the last one up in the eyes that Moreland flailed at helplessly. J.D. Martinez was wisely walked intentionally, setting up a double play, but Baez looked like he wouldn't need any help from the defense as he kept unleashing a torrent of wicket fastballs.

Xander Bogaerts stared at one, missed another, fouled one off to merely delay the inevitable, then struck out swinging on yet another 96-mph fastball.

At that point, Roberts merely had to let Baez finish the job.

Instead, the Dodgers skipper popped out of the dugout again, signaling to the bullpen for left-hander Alex Wood. With left-handed hitter Rafael Devers coming up, Roberts let the matchup game get the best of him.

Boston manager Alex Cora countered with a move of his own, sending up well-traveled Eduardo Nunez as a pinch-hitter.

Roberts defended his hook of Baez.

''We talked about it with Petey throwing the ball well there,'' the manager said. ''But Devers is really good against the right-hander. With Nunez, I really liked Alex in that spot.''

Wood delivered an 83-mph breaking ball that Nunez took for a ball. Wood came back with roughly the same pitch, just a bit closer to the strike zone. Nunez was ready for it, launching a drive over the Green Monster for a three-run homer that essentially locked up the victory.

All Baez could do was watch from the dugout.

He should've still been on the mound.

[StarDust Bum]

Dodgers' 'pen follows Kershaw in failing
October 24, 2018
By The Associated Press

BOSTON (AP) The first delivery from Ryan Madson was a changeup that bounced past catcher Austin Barnes for a wild pitch, allowing two baserunners to advance.

Things hardly got better from there for the previously dependable Dodgers bullpen.

Madson and three other relievers failed to slow Boston's bats on a night when ace Clayton Kershaw wasn't at his best, either, and Los Angeles fell to the Red Sox 8-4 in the World Series opener Tuesday.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has been able to count on his relievers this October. The group is 4-1 with a 1.30 ERA, limiting opponents to a .180 average.

Against the AL champions at their frigid home park, though, that group went ice cold in Game 1.

Kershaw was chased from a 3-3 game in the fifth after walking Mookie Betts and allowing a single to Andrew Benintendi.

Roberts gave the ball to Madson, a key piece when LA's bullpen covered 5 1/3 scoreless innings in a Game 7 victory over Milwaukee to close out the Championship Series. Roberts has leaned on Madson in the tightest spots this October. This was his eighth appearance this postseason, and he came into Tuesday with just 16 runs allowed in 53 2/3 postseason innings for his career.

All his experience, yet Madson choked that first changeup to let Betts and Benintendi advance, then finished off a four-pitch walk to Steve Pearce.

Madson recovered momentarily, striking out J.D. Martinez on three straight fastballs. But then Xander Bogaerts narrowly beat out a possible double-play ball to bring home Betts, and a sharp single by Rafael Devers stretched Boston's edge to 5-3 before the inning ended.

Julio Urias replaced Madson for the sixth and cruised through a 1-2-3 inning, but it all fell apart for Los Angeles in the seventh.

Urias allowed a leadoff ground-rule double to Benintendi - a bloop down the left-field line that bounced off Joc Pederson's glove before bouncing into the seats. Pedro Baez replaced Urias and struck out two around an intentional walk to Martinez.

Though Baez was cruising, Roberts handed the ball to Alex Wood, a move that prompted Boston manager Alex Cora to pinch hit right-handed hitting Eduardo Nunez for the lefty-hitting Devers.

That matchup undid the Dodgers. Nunez took one knuckle curve for a ball, then drilled the next over the Green Monster.

Wood was a breakout All-Star as a starter in 2017, but he's been pushed to the bullpen and struggled there this postseason. Nunez's homer was the third Wood has allowed in 5 2/3 innings.

[StarDust Bum]

wild card/division/championship series/world series /record and best bets:

Date w-l-t % units record

10/23/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -10.50
10/20/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/19/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.15
10/18/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -14.45
10/17/2018 2-1-1 66.67% +6.80
10/16/2018 2-2-0 50.00% +0.65
10/15/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +12.70
10/14/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -1.40
10/13/2018 3-1-0 75.00% +8.95
10/12/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +11.65
10/09/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -12.45
10/08/2018 3-2-1 60.00% +1.70
10/07/2018 1-3-0 25.00% -16.80
10/06/2018 3-1-0 75.00% +9.55
10/05/2018 4-4-0 50.00% -0.50
10/04/2018 2-1-0 66.67% +5.00
10/03/2018 1-1-0 50.00% +0
10/01/2018 2-1-1 66.67% +5.85

total..............30-26-2.......53.57%......+5.60


best bets:................ats.....................units ..................o/u..................units............days total

10/23/2018...............0 - 1.....................-5.00.................0 - 1...................-5.50............+10.50
10/20/2018...............1 - 0....................+5.00.................1 - 0..................+5.00............+10.00
10/19/2018...............0 - 0....................+0.00.................0 - 1..................-5.50.............-5.50
10/18/2018...............0 - 0....................+0 00.................0 - 1..................-5.50.............-5.50
10/17/2018...............1 - 1....................+1.80..................1 - 1..................0.50............+1.30
10/16/2018...............1 - 1....................+0.65.................1 - 1..................-0.50.............+0.15
10/15/2018...............1 - 0....................+7.70.................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+12.70
10/14/2018...............0 - 0....................+0.00.................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+5.00
10/13/2018...............0 - 0....................+0.00.................2 - 0.................+10.00...........+10.00
10/12/2018...............1 - 0....................+5.00..................1 - 0................+5.00.............+10.00
10/09/2018...............0 - 0................... +0.00..................0 - 1.................-5.50..............-5.50
10/08/2018...............1 - 0....................+5.95..................1 - 1.................-0.50..............+5.45
10/07/2018...............0 - 0....................+0.00..................1 - 1.................-0.50..............-0.50
10/06/2018...............1 - 0....................+5.05..................1 - 1..................-0.50.............+4.55
10/05/2018...............0 - 3....................-15.00.................3 - 1..................+9.50.............-5.50
10/04/2018...............0 - 1.....................-5.00..................2 - 0.................+10.00...........+5.00
10/03/2018...............0 - 1.....................-5.00..................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+0.00
10/01/2018...............1 - 1....................+5.85..................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.85

total.........................8 - 9....................+7.00...............18 - 10.................+35.00...........+42.00

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday’s six-pack

Interesting trends for Week 8 in the NFL:

— Lions covered eight of their last ten games.

— Colts covered their last five pre-bye games.

— Kansas City covered its last eleven games.

— Ravens covered two of last 10 vs NFC teams.

— Eagles are 2-7-1 in last 10 games as a favorite.

— Cleveland covered six of its last eight games.

Tweet of the Day
“Everyone wants to believe Chris Paul is a good guy. They don’t know he’s a horrible teammate. They don’t know how he treats people. Look at what he did last year when he was in L.A.; trying to get to the Clippers’ locker room. They don’t want to believe he’s capable of taunting and igniting an incident.”
Rajon Rondo, who is on his sixth team in the last five years

Wednesday’s quiz
Where did Ben Simmons play his one year of college basketball?

Tuesday’s quiz
When Jon Gruden won his Super Bowl for the Bucs against Oakland, Bill Callahan was the head coach for the Raiders.

Monday’s quiz
2007 Giants are the only NFL team to play in a Super Bowl the same year they played a regular season game in England- they beat Miami 13-10 in London.

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Wednesday’s List of 13: Mid-week musings……..

13) According to ESPN.com‘s Darren Rovell, at William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada, 73% of the money on Monday night’s NFL game was on the Falcons, so the swing on the Giants’ 2-point conversion with 0:05 left was large in favor of the house.

Would be fun to know nation-wide, how much $$$ changed hands with Giants covering the spread like that. Had to be a huge chunk of change, right???

12) The greatest compliment any coach can give to a player is to have him on the court/field at the end of a close game; actions speak a hell of a lot louder than words.

Wizards-Trailblazers were 108-108 in last minute Monday night; Portland had Nick Stauskus on the court— Stauskus didn’t start, but he played 30:00 and he finished, tying the game with a 3 late in 4th quarter. Stauskus scored 15 points and had 8 rebounds. When a coach lets you finish, that shows true belief in your ability.

11) While we’re somewhere near the subject, I think assists on 3-point shots should count as 1.5 assists, since they’re 3-point assists, not 2-point assists. Same goes for passes that lead to made foul shots.

10) Since 2001, New England is 38-37 (.507) when losing the turnover battle.

During that time, the rest of NFL is 713-2,765-8 (.206) when losing the turnover battle.

9) From Ralph Michaels: Jacksonville Jaguars are only the 11th team since 1989 to lose back-to-back games as a favorite while scoring 7 or fewer points in both games.

In their next game after that, those other 10 teams went 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS, with over 7-2-1.

8) The ESPN documentaries are basketball are great history lessons for anyone who likes basketball; its like watching highlights of my childhood on TV. Good stuff.

7) NC State 103, Maryland 100 in OT— 1974 ACC title game was one of the greatest college basketball games ever played, just a fantastic game that helped change the future of college hoops. I was 14 years old and remember lying on my bed listening to the game on radio— 103-100 with no shot clock or 3’s.

People don’t realize; back then, only one team from each conference made the NCAA’s, so the loser of the ACC tournament didn’t even make the NCAA tournament. NC State was #2 in the country, Maryland was #3 in the country, so the ’74 ACC title game was an elimination game just to get in the tournament!!!!

In 2002, Maryland won the national title in basketball after losing in the ACC tournament, so the bigger tournament has obviously proven to be a much better thing.

6) Former NFL special teams star Steve Tasker is a sideline reporter for CBS now; when he broke into the NFL in 1987, Jerry Glanville was the Houston Oilers’ defensive coordinator.

31 years later, Glanville is an assistant coach for the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in the CFL, where one of the Ti-Cat players is Tasker’s son Luke.

5) When Wade Phillips started coaching in the NFL, neither Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan had been born yet.

4) Only QB’s to beat all 32 NFL teams: Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Brett Favre.

3) The GEICO commercial with Vikings’ WR Stefan Diggs is tremendous; his neighbors notice that everything sticks to his hands, which makes it tough for him to take the garbage out.

2) World Series Game 1: Red Sox 8, Dodgers 4— Eduardo Nunez broke open a close game with a 3-run, pinch-hit homer in the 7th inning. Neither starting pitcher finished the fifth inning.

1) Random political numbers; as of October 2017, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrat, 24% identified as Republican, and 42% as Independent. I was curious about that at 5am one night, so I looked it up and now you know, too.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Dunkel

Wednesday, October 24


LA Dodgers @ Boston

Game 903-904
October 24, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(Ryu) 20.133
Boston
(Price) 16.912
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-140
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(+120); Under



MLB
Weather Report

Wednesday, October 24






MLB

Wednesday, October 24

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Trend Report
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Los Angeles Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Dodgers is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games
LA Dodgers is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Boston
LA Dodgers is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston Red Sox
Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
Boston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing LA Dodgers
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers


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MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 24

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LA DODGERS (99 - 76) at BOSTON (116 - 56) - 8:05 PM
HYUN-JIN RYU (L) vs. DAVID PRICE (L)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 99-76 (-21.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA DODGERS are 40-47 (-25.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 171-192 (-69.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday since 1997.
LA DODGERS are 119-135 (-36.1 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game since 1997.
LA DODGERS are 69-57 (-19.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
LA DODGERS are 76-61 (-26.5 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
RYU is 7-13 (-9.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BOSTON is 116-56 (+39.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 17-4 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game this season.
BOSTON is 81-46 (+21.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BOSTON is 79-36 (+27.8 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BOSTON is 47-30 (+17.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 28-18 (+10.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
PRICE is 24-9 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
PRICE is 11-4 (+9.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
PRICE is 2-10 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

HYUN-JIN RYU vs. BOSTON since 1997
RYU is 0-1 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 7.20 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

DAVID PRICE vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
PRICE is 0-1 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 1.583.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-2. (-2.7 units)

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World Series Game 2 Home Plate Umpire: Kerwin Danley

2018 Betting Stats:

Home Team: 13-17 ($-1071)
Over/Under: 19-10
Strike Percentage: 64.13%
Average Runs Per Game: 10.70

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Best Bet
October 24, 2018
By Sportsbetting.ag

World Series Game 2 Best Bet

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox

Baseball fans were treated to highly entertaining Game 1 of the Fall Classic as the pitching duel many expected between Kershaw and Sale was quickly cast aside for what ended up being a 8-4 win for Boston. The game was much tighter than that final score would suggest as Boston broke it open with 3-run HR by Eduardo Nunez in the bottom of the 7th and there was no looking back from there.

Tonight, the Red Sox are hoping they can head to L.A. with a 2-0 series lead in their pocket, because should this thing get evened up by the Dodgers tonight, there's no guarantees that Boston would get another home game in this matchup. Boston's counting on David Price to bring things home for them this evening, and now that the pressure of getting that first playoff victory is off Price's back, it will be interesting to see how he performs.

Sportsbetting Odds: L.A. Dodgers (+125) vs Boston (-135); Total set at 8.5

David Price pitched very well in his last outing, as he allowed just three hits over 6 IP in the series-clinching win over Houston. Not only did that effort get Boston to this stage, but for Price personally it was finally nice to get that first playoff win out of the way and not get the barrage of questions about when that first playoff win is going to come. Yet, we can't just take into account what we've seen most recently, which is why Price's playoff struggles still lurk in the background why I say it will be interesting to see his performance tonight.

Conversely, on the other side of the field, L.A. is sending out Hyun-Jin Ryu to the hill tonight and he's the one in need of a strong bounce-back performance. Ryu's last outing was an ugly one against the Brewers in Game 6, as he allowed five runs on seven hits in just 3 IP in the potential closeout game for L.A. To let his teammates down in a big moment like that was stinging for Ryu, but he's probably glad to see anyone but the Milwaukee Brewers as he went 6IP or more in six of his seven previous starts before the NLCS, and L.A. was a phenomenal 5-1 SU in those six strong outings from Ryu.

The biggest question you've got to ask yourself when breaking down this game is what form can you reliably trust or believe these two starters will show? Considering both managers can't be thrilled with all the work their respective bullpens got in Game 1 – especially with it being a Kershaw/Sale matchup – the longer Ryu and Price can go tonight, the happier their managers will be, but their track record in these spots is spotty at best. However, if you start to look at a few other factors that will be involved in this game, you can paint a more reliable picture of how this game plays out.

For one, it's a matchup of two lefties on the mound which means both lineups will likely be right-handed heavy. That's great for knocking balls off the Green Monster out in left, but weather forecasts are projecting strong wins (13-18 mph) to be blowing across the field from left to right, pushing all those pulled balls to left back towards the middle of the diamond and the big part of the ball park. That ends up being a huge plus for these pitchers tonight.

Secondly, we've got Kerwin Danley as the home plate umpire tonight and his numbers this year aren't the greatest if you are a David Price or a Red Sox fan. Danley's been a great 'over' umpire this year behind the dish with a 19-10 O/U record, and that includes a 2-1 O/U mark when it's southpaw vs southpaw on the hill. Games Danley umped saw 10.7 runs scored per game this season and I'm sure his position back there is part of why we've got 85%+ of the action on tonight's total backing the 'over' once again. If the wind blows across like it's expected too, the 'over' might not be as easy as the majority believes, but Danley's presence behind the dish is enough to keep me off the 'under' here.

Yet, I mentioned that Danley behind the dish isn't great news for Price and Boston and that's got nothing to do with the total. Danley may be used to seeing plenty of runs scored when he's calling balls and strikes, but the majority of them come from the visitors. Road teams score 5.9 runs/game, compared to 4.8/game for home teams, with Danley behind the plate.

Visiting clubs are on a 5-2 SU run the last seven times Danley's called balls and strikes, and although Price finally shook his postseason demons last start by getting that win, is one win enough to make you trust that Price won't revert to getting knocked around again? Especially if he's getting squeezed by an umpire that definitely has a hitter's strike zone?

I know I'm not ready to trust Price in this situation and with the Dodgers being the one priced as the underdogs, taking that plus-money on L.A is definitely worth the risk here. The Dodgers would love to head back home tied at a game apiece, knowing that Boston's got to deal without their DH spot for the next three games and how that could drastically alter (and arguably weaken) their lineup.

At 1-1, the Dodgers would be better set up to take advantage of that favorable scenario, and considering they are on a 8-0 SU after allowing 5+ runs, and 7-1 SU in Ryu's last eight starts on four days of rest, I've got to take a shot backing the visiting side here.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Best Bet: L.A. Dodgers ML (+125)

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 24
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LAD at BOS 08:09 PM

O 8.5

[StarDust Bum]

Dodgers go cold in Boston, then fall behind 2-0 to Red Sox
October 24, 2018
By The Associated Press

BOSTON (AP) The San Gabriel Mountains shimmering in the distance will be a welcome sight for the Los Angeles Dodgers after two chilly, failed nights at Fenway Park.

No team has overcome a 2-0 World Series deficit in 22 years, but that is the tall task the Dodgers face after crumbling before the 37-foot-high Green Monster.

''It's warmer, and hopefully our bats get hot, too,'' Cody Bellinger said after Wednesday night's 4-2 defeat to the Boston Red Sox.

No wonder they were California Dreamin' about Thursday's flight home.

Used to the balmy breezes at home and usually hospitable weather in the NL West, Los Angeles hadn't started a game this year in a temperature below 58. Facing a 53-degree temperature at the start of the opener, the Dodgers lost 8-4. It was just 46 in the first inning for Game 2, and the Dodgers' bats were cold again - their last 16 hitters retired in order.

''This is the first time we've played in obviously weather like this - San Francisco a little bit, but nothing like this,'' Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said before the game. ''So it's an adjustment, and that's part of the home-field advantage and especially being in the bullpen, where you have a little heater, but still have to kind of get hot and stay hot. It's more of a challenge.''

Ryan Madson was unusually open about how out of sorts the Dodgers were on late October nights in the northeast.

''Last night in the bullpen, we had a couple of heaters going,'' he said before Game 2. ''It was warm out there, but to get up and move around. I didn't feel as gummy as usual when it's 75, 80 degrees. So I'm going to make that adjustment tonight, move around a little bit more. I'm going to tell the guys who didn't pitch last night, just move around a little bit more than usual, move your knee joints. But maybe they're young and they don't feel it.''

Madson's problem was the lack of movement on his pitches, as well as a changeup he threw for a wild pitch in Game 1. Brought in to reliever Hyun-Jin Ryu and protect a 2-1 lead with the bases loaded and two outs in the fifth a night later, he walked Steve Pearce and gave up a two-run single to J.D. Martinez before throwing a single offspeed pitch.

Dodgers pitching coach Rick Honeycutt was annoyed at the conditions experienced by his relievers in a bullpen just in front of the right field bleachers.

''Brutal. Pretty brutal,'' he told Sports Illustrated. ''What I don't understand is why baseball allows it. You've got the rubber right there and people literally standing over you.''

Fenway's frenzied fans benefit the Red Sox, a big-league best 57-24 at home during the regular season and 8-1 in the World Series since 2004.

''They live baseball 24 hours, seven days a week,'' said Boston manager Alex Cora, who played for the Dodgers from 1998-04 and for the Red Sox from 2005-08. ''They were into every pitch. Two strikes, they stood up. Madson came in and he was wild, and they were screaming and they were loud. Sometimes we take them for granted, honestly.''

If Los Angeles is to recover, it will be at Chavez Ravine. The temperature for last year's World Series opener at Dodger Stadium was 103 degrees. A more temperate mid-80s is forecast for Friday, when rookie Walker Buehler starts against Rick Porcello in an attempt to spark a turnaround. With a right-hander on the mound for Boston, the Dodgers' top three home-run hitters are likely to be back in the starting lineup: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and Yasmani Grandal, all left-handed hitters.

''We're going to shuffle it up for Game 3, but it's not because of necessarily performance, it's kind of who the starting pitcher for those guys is,'' Roberts said.

But even if the Dodgers win at least two of three to force the Series back to Boston, they would still have to win at least once at quirky, noisy Fenway. There is no sign they can warm to the task.

[StarDust Bum]

wild card/division/championship series/world series /record and best bets:

Date w-l-t % units record

10/24/2018 0-1-0 0.00% -5.50
10/23/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -10.50
10/20/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/19/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.15
10/18/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -14.45
10/17/2018 2-1-1 66.67% +6.80
10/16/2018 2-2-0 50.00% +0.65
10/15/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +12.70
10/14/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -1.40
10/13/2018 3-1-0 75.00% +8.95
10/12/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +11.65
10/09/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -12.45
10/08/2018 3-2-1 60.00% +1.70
10/07/2018 1-3-0 25.00% -16.80
10/06/2018 3-1-0 75.00% +9.55
10/05/2018 4-4-0 50.00% -0.50
10/04/2018 2-1-0 66.67% +5.00
10/03/2018 1-1-0 50.00% +0
10/01/2018 2-1-1 66.67% +5.85

total..............30-27-2.......52.63%......+0.10


best bets:................ats.....................units ..................o/u..................units............days total

10/24/2018...............0 - 0....................+0.00.................0 - 1...................-5.50............-5.50
10/23/2018...............0 - 1.....................-5.00.................0 - 1...................-5.50............+10.50
10/20/2018...............1 - 0....................+5.00.................1 - 0..................+5.00............+10.00
10/19/2018...............0 - 0....................+0.00.................0 - 1..................-5.50.............-5.50
10/18/2018...............0 - 0....................+0 00.................0 - 1..................-5.50.............-5.50
10/17/2018...............1 - 1....................+1.80..................1 - 1..................0.50............+1.30
10/16/2018...............1 - 1....................+0.65.................1 - 1..................-0.50.............+0.15
10/15/2018...............1 - 0....................+7.70.................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+12.70
10/14/2018...............0 - 0....................+0.00.................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+5.00
10/13/2018...............0 - 0....................+0.00.................2 - 0.................+10.00...........+10.00
10/12/2018...............1 - 0....................+5.00..................1 - 0................+5.00.............+10.00
10/09/2018...............0 - 0................... +0.00..................0 - 1.................-5.50..............-5.50
10/08/2018...............1 - 0....................+5.95..................1 - 1.................-0.50..............+5.45
10/07/2018...............0 - 0....................+0.00..................1 - 1.................-0.50..............-0.50
10/06/2018...............1 - 0....................+5.05..................1 - 1..................-0.50.............+4.55
10/05/2018...............0 - 3....................-15.00.................3 - 1..................+9.50.............-5.50
10/04/2018...............0 - 1.....................-5.00..................2 - 0.................+10.00...........+5.00
10/03/2018...............0 - 1.....................-5.00..................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+0.00
10/01/2018...............1 - 1....................+5.85..................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.85

total.........................8 - 9....................+7.00...............18 - 11.................+30.00...........+36.50

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Interesting trends for Week 8 in the NFL:

— Steelers are 1-5 in last six games as a divisional home favorite.

— Eagles are 2-7-1 in last ten games as a favorite.

— Saints covered five of their last six games.

— Bengals covered six of their last nine games.

— Colts covered their last five pre-bye games.

— Jaguars are 4-19 in last 23 games vs NFC teams.


**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…..

13) Cam Newton’s Sunday in Philadelphia:
Quarters 1-3: 9-of-17, 68 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, not much of anything
4th quarter: 16-22, 201 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs— He looked like Dan Fouts

Once he got hot, the Panthers were unstoppable, but it was like someone flipped the on-switch and he started playing better.

12) Denver Broncos released backup QB Chad Kelly after he was arrested on trespassing charges Monday night. He was forcibly removed from the players’ Halloween party before he entered another person’s home where he didn’t belong.

11) There are whispers coming out of Ohio that at this time next year, Urban Meyer could be coaching the Cleveland Browns. We’ll see about that; not sure how Meyer would do dealing with the losing NFL coaches do, much more than college coaches.

10) College basketball starts November 6; on Opening Night, 52 D-I teams play a non-D-I opponent, which is embarrassing. Last year, D-I teams went 453-11 against non-D-I teams.

9) Darius Bazley is a young man who signed to play basketball at Syracuse this winter, but he won’t do that or play in the G-League, instead he is going to train on his own— he has signed an endorsement contract with New Balance, which will play him at least $1M.

Bazley will also intern at the company’s marketing, digital, footwear and apparel departments from January to March. Chances are he will go from April 2018 to July 2019 without playing in a competitive basketball game. Not sure how that is a good idea for his development as a player, but good luck to him.

8) Raiders supposedly turned down a 2nd round pick from the Eagles for Amari Cooper, before dealing him to the Cowboys Monday; Jon Gruden talked to the team Wednesday about the trade, but that seems kind of late, no? The trade was Monday.

7) Los Angeles Angels hired former Tiger skipper Brad Ausmus as their next manager.

6) This is just the third World Series where all four starting pitchers in Games 1-2 were lefty:

1963 – Koufax vs Ford, Podres vs Downing
1973 – Matlack vs Holtzman, Koosman vs Blue
2018 – Kershaw vs Sale, Ryu vs Price

5) James Harden left Houston’s 100-89 loss in Utah Wednesday with a hamstring issue that he says “isn’t serious). Harden missed seven games LY with a similar injury.

4) Nets 102, Cavaliers 86— Cleveland coach Tyrone Lue coached in the NBA Finals the last two years, but the Cavs are 0-4 already and Lue might get fired before Christmas. Losing to the Nets by 16 at home isn’t a good sign.

3) Red Sox 4, Dodgers 2— None of LA’s top four home run hitters have started a game in this WS yet, because they’re all lefty and God forbid a lefty hitter face a lefty pitcher.

2) Rams signed WR Austin Proehl to the practice squad, which sounds like an obscure note, except if you’re a Ram fan, the Phoehl name is royalty— Austin’s dad Ricky Proehl caught the game-winning TD pass in the 2000 NFC title game the year the Rams won the Super Bowl, and he also caught a TD pass in the Super Bowl two years later.

1) According to Psychology Living magazine, being sarcastic on a regular basis can add up to three years to your life, which means you’re stuck with me for three more years than you thought you were. Sarcasm is extremely healthy for the mind. Ha!!!

[StarDust Bum]

Fenway Park gave Dodgers cold shoulder, Series shifts to LA
October 25, 2018
By The Associated Press

BOSTON (AP) Fenway Park gave the Los Angeles Dodgers the cold shoulder.

No wonder they were California Dreamin' about Thursday's flight home.

''I think all the players are happy about going back to LA, but obviously we have some games to win,'' pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu said through a translator after Wednesday night's 4-2 loss to Boston dropped the Dodgers into a 2-0 World Series hole. ''I think all the other players will be able to focus more and try to come back from this deficit.''

Fenway Park, at 106 the oldest big league ballpark, is crammed onto 9 acres in downtown Boston, the 37-foot-high Green Monster in left field a target for hitters and a terror for pitchers.

Dodger Stadium, a modern ballpark when opened in 1962 but now the third-oldest, sits atop 300 acres of land in Chavez Ravine near downtown Los Angeles, surrounded by tiered parking lots with palm trees beyond the fences and the San Gabriel Mountains shimmering in the distance.

While Fenway is urban tumult, Dodger Stadium symbolizes the sunny Californian way of life. But expect a pumped-up crowd for Game 3 on Friday, especially after Vin Scully's recorded call of ''It's Time for Dodger Baseball!''

''It's going to be warmer, and hopefully our bats get hot, too,'' Cody Bellinger said .

Used to the balmy breezes at home and usually hospitable weather in the NL West, Los Angeles hadn't started a game this year in a temperature below 58. Facing a 53-degree chill at the beginning of the opener, the Dodgers lost 8-4. It was just 46 in the first inning for Game 2, and the Dodgers' bats were cold again - their last 16 hitters retired in order.

''This is the first time we've played in obviously weather like this - San Francisco a little bit, but nothing like this,'' manager Dave Roberts said before the game. ''So it's an adjustment, and that's part of the home-field advantage and especially being in the bullpen, where you have a little heater, but still have to kind of get hot and stay hot. It's more of a challenge.''

No team has overcome a 2-0 Series deficit since 1996, when the Yankees lost twice at home to Atlanta before sweeping three games on the road and winning Game 6 in New York .

''We've got a tough road ahead of us, man,'' Matt Kemp said .

Ryan Madson was unusually open about how out of sorts the Dodgers were on late October nights in the Northeast.

''Last night in the bullpen, we had a couple of heaters going,'' he said before Game 2. ''It was warm out there, but to get up and move around, I didn't feel as gummy as usual when it's 75, 80 degrees. So I'm going to make that adjustment tonight, move around a little bit more. I'm going to tell the guys who didn't pitch last night, just move around a little bit more than usual, move your knee joints. But maybe they're young and they don't feel it.''

Madson's problem was the lack of movement on his pitches, as well as a changeup he threw for a wild pitch in Game 1. Brought in to relieve Ryu and protect a 2-1 lead with the bases loaded and two outs in the fifth a night later, he walked Steve Pearce and gave up a two-run single to J.D. Martinez before throwing a single off-speed pitch.

Dodgers pitching coach Rick Honeycutt was annoyed at the conditions experienced by his relievers in a bullpen just in front of the right field bleachers.

''Brutal. Pretty brutal,'' he told Sports Illustrated. ''What I don't understand is why baseball allows it. You've got the rubber right there and people literally standing over you.''

Fenway's frenzied fans benefit the Red Sox, a big league-best 57-24 at home during the regular season and 8-1 in the World Series since 2004.

''They live baseball 24 hours, seven days a week,'' said Boston manager Alex Cora, who played for the Dodgers from 1998-04 and for the Red Sox from 2005-08. ''They were into every pitch. Two strikes, they stood up. Madson came in and he was wild, and they were screaming and they were loud. Sometimes we take them for granted, honestly.''

When Los Angeles opened the Series at home last year, it was 103 degrees. A more temperate mid-80s is forecast for Friday, when rookie Walker Buehler starts against Rick Porcello in an attempt to spark a turnaround. With a right-hander on the mound for Boston, the Dodgers are likely to regain some of their power. Their top four home run hitters were benched in Boston: left-handed-batting Bellinger, Max Muncy and Joc Pederson along with switch-hitting Yasmani Grandal.

''We're going to shuffle it up for Game 3, but it's not because of necessarily performance, it's kind of who the starting pitcher for those guys is,'' Roberts said.

No matter what, Los Angeles will be unable to win its first title at home since 1963. But even if the Dodgers take at least two of three to force the Series back to Boston, they would still have to win at least once at quirky, noisy Fenway. There is no sign they can warm to the task.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

College football trends for Week 8:

— Washington State is 15-5 in last 20 games as a road underdog.

— Home side covered 7 of last 10 Wisconsin-Northwestern games.

— Pitt is 8-15-1 vs spread in its last 24 home games.

— Kansas covered once in its last six games as a home underdog.

— New Mexico covered only two of last nine conference games.

— North Carolina covered six of its last eight games vs Virginia.


**********

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random facts on a fall Friday

13) Thru seven weeks, NFL teams are 35-59 (59.3%) on 2-point conversions.

12) Kerryon Johnson ran for 158 yards Sunday for the Lions, the best day for a Detroit RB in seven years; Lions drafted Johnson with a pick they got from New England on draft day- the pick was originally the 49ers’ pick, but San Francisco traded that pick to New England in the Jimmy Garoppolo deal.

Funny how the Patriots trading Garoppolo wound up benefitting Detroit.

11) Ravens have allowed only one TD on the opening drive of a half this year, and that came on a 6-yard drive by Denver after a blocked punt. In their last four games, Baltimore has forced three turnovers on their opponents’ first drive of the game.

10) Last year, the Eagles converted 51.4% of 3rd down plays in the red zone, which was the 3rd best %age in the NFL. This year they are at 21.1%, ranking second-last in the NFL.

9) Dallas traded for WR Omari Cooper because their offense needs a jolt; in their seven games this season, Cowboys have gone 3/out on their first drive five times. Maybe Cooper can make their offense more explosive, allow them to get off to better starts.

8) In Buffalo Bills’ last four games: they were outscored 56-7 in first half. Bills had the ball 42 times in those games; they scored two TD’s, turned ball over 12 times.

7) Atlanta Falcons converted 32 of their last 55 third down plays.

6) 54 teams have led a World Series 2-0; 43 of them went on to win that World Series.

5) Best ppp in red zone this season:
Seattle 5.73 (15 drives), Baltimore 5.65 (26 drives), Kansas City 5.61 (33 drives)

4) Best ppp on drives that started 75+ yards from end zone:
Kansas City 3.05, New Orleans 2.86, Atlanta 2.72

3) Thru first nine days of the NBA season, home favorites were 24-20 vs spread, home underdogs 14-5.

Teams playing 2nd consecutive night are 9-5 vs spread; 3-3 when favored, 6-2 as dogs. 10 of those 14 games went over the total.

2) Cleveland Browns have played four OT games already this season; only one of their seven games was decided by more than four points. How many games does Hue Jackson have to win to keep his job?

NFL teams with a +2 or better turnover margin are 36-3-1 this season; Cleveland is 1-1-1, and everyone else is 35-2.

1) Since 2012, Denver Broncos have drafted five quarterbacks; none of those five guys is still on the Broncos.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Dunkel

Friday, October 26


Boston @ LA Dodgers

Game 905-906
October 26, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
(Porcello) 19.034
LA Dodgers
(Buehler) 18.011
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-155
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(+135); Over




MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, October 26

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOSTON (117 - 56) at LA DODGERS (99 - 77) - 8:05 PM
RICK PORCELLO (R) vs. WALKER BUEHLER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 117-56 (+40.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 15-10 (+13.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 56-30 (+24.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
BOSTON is 9-2 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in October games this season.
BOSTON is 18-4 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game this season.
BOSTON is 82-46 (+22.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BOSTON is 91-40 (+35.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BOSTON is 9-2 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in playoff games this season.
BOSTON is 80-36 (+28.8 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BOSTON is 48-30 (+18.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 29-18 (+11.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
PORCELLO is 24-11 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
PORCELLO is 9-0 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
PORCELLO is 66-47 (+20.4 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 99-77 (-22.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA DODGERS are 21-24 (-16.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
LA DODGERS are 49-38 (-18.9 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
LA DODGERS are 119-136 (-37.1 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game since 1997.
LA DODGERS are 69-58 (-20.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
LA DODGERS are 56-47 (-17.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
LA DODGERS are 42-35 (-13.6 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)

RICK PORCELLO vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
PORCELLO is 1-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 5.90 and a WHIP of 1.968.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

WALKER BUEHLER vs. BOSTON since 1997
No recent starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, October 26

Red Sox @ Dodgers (Boston leads, 2-0)
Porcello is 2-0, 5.14 in his last five starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven road starts. Team in his starts: 24-11, 13-7 road
5-inning record: 22-11-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 8-35

Buehler is 0-1, 5.40 in his three playoff starts; under is 8-1 in his last nine starts. Team in his starts: 15-11, 8-5 home
5-inning record: 15-7-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-26

There is no DH in the games at Dodger Stadium.

Boston won ten of its last 12 games; over is 16-5-1 in their last 22 games. Red Sox are in playoffs for third year in row, but this is their first World Series since 2013- they won last three WS appearances.

Dodgers won seven of their last eight home games, but are down 2-0 in this series; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. LA is in playoffs for 6th year in row; they lost 7th game of World Series LY. Dodgers’ last WS title was in 1988.




MLB
Weather Report

Friday, October 26






MLB

Friday, October 26

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Boston Red Sox
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Boston's last 16 games
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 10 games on the road
Boston is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
Boston is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
LA Dodgers is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
LA Dodgers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games at home
LA Dodgers is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing Boston
LA Dodgers is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Boston