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Wednesday's Diamond Notes
August 8, 2017
Hottest team: Mariners (7-3 past 10 games overall)
The Mariners erased a 6-2 deficit, storming back in Oakland for a 7-6 win in 10 innings. It could end up being a very important win, as they're tied with the Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Rays for a wild card spot, although there is obviously plenty of time to play. The Mariners are now 6-1 over their past seven road games against a team with a losing record, and they're an impressive 11-4 over their past 15 road outings. Things will certainly be put to the test, as the M's are just 2-7 over Yovani Gallardo's past nine while working on five days of rest. The A's haven't been much better with Jharel Cotton on the hill, however, going just 3-7 over his past 10 outings. Perhaps the final game of the series will be a run-fest. The over is 5-1-1 in Gallardo's past seven for the M's, 4-1 in his past five on the road and 4-1 in his past five against AL West foes. The over is 5-0-2 in Oakland's past seven in the Coliseum, 8-2-2 in their past 12 overall and 4-1 in Cotton's past five at home.
Coldest team: Rangers (3-7 past 10 overall)
The Rangers are six games under .500, but still within four games of the final wild card spot in the American League. However, they'll need to right the ship soon. Texas has won just three of their past 10 games overall, and they're a dismal 4-13 over the past 17 against teams with a losing record. The turnaround might not come with left-hander Martin Perez on the bump, as the Rangers are 0-4 over his past four outings and 0-7 in his past seven on the road against a team with a losing record. They're also just 2-6 over his past eight on the road while going 1-6 over the past seven vs. RHP.
Hottest pitcher: Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks (13-4, 3.10 ERA)
Greinke looks to bounce back after getting tuned up for a season-high six runs at Wrigley Field on Thursday. It was a stark contrast from his July when he went 4-0 with a 2.12 ERA over five starts, his first month this season without a loss. He'll be facing his former team, the Dodgers, a side which tossed him for five runs and 10 hits over five innings for his first loss of the season back on April 14. He'll need to tread very carefully around Justin Turner. Not only does the redheaded third baseman have homers in three straight games (four homers overall), but he is 6-for-14 (.429) with two doubles, a triple, a homer and five RBI with a 1.357 OPS in his career against him. Corey Seager has also launched two homers in just nine career at-bats, hitting .667 in their brief encounters.
Coldest pitcher: Rick Porcello, Red Sox (5-14, 4.70 ERA)
It's been well documented how stark of a contrast Porcello's 2017 season is to his 2016 campaign. He just hasn't shown many signs of a turnaround. After a couple of effective starts in July, he has allowed nine earned runs across 12 1/3 innings over his past two outings. He actually won his most recent outing agianst the White Sox on Thursday, but he gave up five runs and seven hits over just 5 1/3 innings. He still has lost five of his pst six decisions, and his 76 earned runs are tied for fifth-most allowed this season.
Biggest UNDER run: Brewers (8-1-2 past 11 overall)
While the 'over' hit in Tuesday's game at Target Field, it is a rarity these days for the Brewers. That was their first over result since July 27 in Washington, a 15-2 burial from the Nationals. Over the past 12 games the Brewers have tallied two or fewer runs in seven outings, with three or fewer runs in nine of the past 12. Their pitching hasn't been the problem, at least until Tuesday when they allowed double digits in runs. Entering Tuesday they were allowing an average of 2.2 runs per game over the past 10. That's a recipe for plenty of under results, and total bettors love those type of statistics.
Biggest OVER run: Giants (3-0-1 past four games, 6-2-1 past nine overall)
The 'over' inched over the finish line Tuesday as the Giants doubled up the defending champs, evening their series at one game apiece. The over is 3-0-1 across the past four for San Francisco, as they're averaging a respectable 5.0 runs per game while yielding 3.8 runs per outing. They're not smashing the over by any stretch, but seven of their past 10 games have featured a total of eight or more total runs. The over is also 3-0-1 in Chicago's past four, too, and the over is 3-0-1 in the past four meetings in San Francisco. However, with Madison Bumgarner on the hill, the over will be put to the test. The under is 5-2-1 over his past eight outings and 4-1 over the past five against a team with a winning overall mark.
Matchup to watch: Nationals vs. Marlins
The Nationals fell under the .600 winning percentage mark with their 7-3 loss on Tuesday against the pesky Marlins, but they remain 21 games over .500 on the season. In addition, Washington still has a 13-game buffer between themselves and Miami through 111 games, or 51 games to play. The Nationals still have a plus-109 run differential, third-best in the NL, while the Marlins have a minus-13. Still, the Marlins are now 6-5 through 11 meetings this season, going 2-3 in five matchups at Nationals Park. The teams roll out a pair of southpaws for Wednesday's tilt, with LHP Adam Conley squaring off with LHP Gio Gonzalez. The latter took a no-hitter into the ninth inning at Marlins Park in his last outing on July 31. The Hialeah, Fla. native has quality starts in 11 of his past 12 outings.
Betcha didn’t know: The Astros didn't get much from Dallas Keuchel in Tuesday's start in Chicago, as he was tagged for eight runs, 10 hits, three walks and just two strikeouts over four frames by the White Sox of all teams. It was good for a game score of just nine, the worst of his 140 career starts. Will they get more from Collin McHugh on Wednesday? The Astros are 9-3 over his past 12 starts, including 7-1 over his past eight on the road. Houston is also 4-0 in the past four starts by McHugh when working on five days of rest. While all that sounds good, the Astros are still 0-5 over McHugh's past five against American League Central Division squads.
Biggest public favorite: Astros (-180) at White Sox
Biggest public underdog: Pirates (+135) at Tigers
Biggest line move: Royals (+140 to +120) at Cardinals
August 8, 2017
Hottest team: Mariners (7-3 past 10 games overall)
The Mariners erased a 6-2 deficit, storming back in Oakland for a 7-6 win in 10 innings. It could end up being a very important win, as they're tied with the Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Rays for a wild card spot, although there is obviously plenty of time to play. The Mariners are now 6-1 over their past seven road games against a team with a losing record, and they're an impressive 11-4 over their past 15 road outings. Things will certainly be put to the test, as the M's are just 2-7 over Yovani Gallardo's past nine while working on five days of rest. The A's haven't been much better with Jharel Cotton on the hill, however, going just 3-7 over his past 10 outings. Perhaps the final game of the series will be a run-fest. The over is 5-1-1 in Gallardo's past seven for the M's, 4-1 in his past five on the road and 4-1 in his past five against AL West foes. The over is 5-0-2 in Oakland's past seven in the Coliseum, 8-2-2 in their past 12 overall and 4-1 in Cotton's past five at home.
Coldest team: Rangers (3-7 past 10 overall)
The Rangers are six games under .500, but still within four games of the final wild card spot in the American League. However, they'll need to right the ship soon. Texas has won just three of their past 10 games overall, and they're a dismal 4-13 over the past 17 against teams with a losing record. The turnaround might not come with left-hander Martin Perez on the bump, as the Rangers are 0-4 over his past four outings and 0-7 in his past seven on the road against a team with a losing record. They're also just 2-6 over his past eight on the road while going 1-6 over the past seven vs. RHP.
Hottest pitcher: Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks (13-4, 3.10 ERA)
Greinke looks to bounce back after getting tuned up for a season-high six runs at Wrigley Field on Thursday. It was a stark contrast from his July when he went 4-0 with a 2.12 ERA over five starts, his first month this season without a loss. He'll be facing his former team, the Dodgers, a side which tossed him for five runs and 10 hits over five innings for his first loss of the season back on April 14. He'll need to tread very carefully around Justin Turner. Not only does the redheaded third baseman have homers in three straight games (four homers overall), but he is 6-for-14 (.429) with two doubles, a triple, a homer and five RBI with a 1.357 OPS in his career against him. Corey Seager has also launched two homers in just nine career at-bats, hitting .667 in their brief encounters.
Coldest pitcher: Rick Porcello, Red Sox (5-14, 4.70 ERA)
It's been well documented how stark of a contrast Porcello's 2017 season is to his 2016 campaign. He just hasn't shown many signs of a turnaround. After a couple of effective starts in July, he has allowed nine earned runs across 12 1/3 innings over his past two outings. He actually won his most recent outing agianst the White Sox on Thursday, but he gave up five runs and seven hits over just 5 1/3 innings. He still has lost five of his pst six decisions, and his 76 earned runs are tied for fifth-most allowed this season.
Biggest UNDER run: Brewers (8-1-2 past 11 overall)
While the 'over' hit in Tuesday's game at Target Field, it is a rarity these days for the Brewers. That was their first over result since July 27 in Washington, a 15-2 burial from the Nationals. Over the past 12 games the Brewers have tallied two or fewer runs in seven outings, with three or fewer runs in nine of the past 12. Their pitching hasn't been the problem, at least until Tuesday when they allowed double digits in runs. Entering Tuesday they were allowing an average of 2.2 runs per game over the past 10. That's a recipe for plenty of under results, and total bettors love those type of statistics.
Biggest OVER run: Giants (3-0-1 past four games, 6-2-1 past nine overall)
The 'over' inched over the finish line Tuesday as the Giants doubled up the defending champs, evening their series at one game apiece. The over is 3-0-1 across the past four for San Francisco, as they're averaging a respectable 5.0 runs per game while yielding 3.8 runs per outing. They're not smashing the over by any stretch, but seven of their past 10 games have featured a total of eight or more total runs. The over is also 3-0-1 in Chicago's past four, too, and the over is 3-0-1 in the past four meetings in San Francisco. However, with Madison Bumgarner on the hill, the over will be put to the test. The under is 5-2-1 over his past eight outings and 4-1 over the past five against a team with a winning overall mark.
Matchup to watch: Nationals vs. Marlins
The Nationals fell under the .600 winning percentage mark with their 7-3 loss on Tuesday against the pesky Marlins, but they remain 21 games over .500 on the season. In addition, Washington still has a 13-game buffer between themselves and Miami through 111 games, or 51 games to play. The Nationals still have a plus-109 run differential, third-best in the NL, while the Marlins have a minus-13. Still, the Marlins are now 6-5 through 11 meetings this season, going 2-3 in five matchups at Nationals Park. The teams roll out a pair of southpaws for Wednesday's tilt, with LHP Adam Conley squaring off with LHP Gio Gonzalez. The latter took a no-hitter into the ninth inning at Marlins Park in his last outing on July 31. The Hialeah, Fla. native has quality starts in 11 of his past 12 outings.
Betcha didn’t know: The Astros didn't get much from Dallas Keuchel in Tuesday's start in Chicago, as he was tagged for eight runs, 10 hits, three walks and just two strikeouts over four frames by the White Sox of all teams. It was good for a game score of just nine, the worst of his 140 career starts. Will they get more from Collin McHugh on Wednesday? The Astros are 9-3 over his past 12 starts, including 7-1 over his past eight on the road. Houston is also 4-0 in the past four starts by McHugh when working on five days of rest. While all that sounds good, the Astros are still 0-5 over McHugh's past five against American League Central Division squads.
Biggest public favorite: Astros (-180) at White Sox
Biggest public underdog: Pirates (+135) at Tigers
Biggest line move: Royals (+140 to +120) at Cardinals
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