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Belmont Stakes bteting horse-by-horse preview and picks
Here we go again. Thirteen times since Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978 has a horse entered the Belmont Stakes with a chance to make history and each time they’ve failed.
What makes this year different?
Here’s a look at the field for Saturday’s Belmont Stakes:
1. Mubtaahij (Jockey, Irad Ortiz, odds 10-1): Took a lot of money at the windows in the Kentucky Derby and finished a hard-closing eighth. Should be able to get the Belmont’s grueling distance but don't think he's a major threat. Import, who won the UAE Derby, skipped the Preakness to freshen up.
2. Tale of Verve (Gary Stevens, 15-1): Has just one win in seven career starts but he took a game second in the Preakness making his entry in this race seem legitimate. Also shown ability to come from off the pace and has run six straight races over a mile long but it took him six tries to break his maiden and this is too steep a challenge.
3. Madefromlucky (Javier Castellano, 12-1): First of two Todd Pletcher-trained horses in the field and if one trainer would like to prevent Bob Baffert from winning the Triple Crown, it's Pletcher. This one won the Peter Pan over this surface but was walloped by American Pharoah twice at Oaklawn once in the slop and once on a fast surface.
4. Frammento (Mike Smith, 30-1): Didn't like him in the Kentucky Derby where he finished 11th and there's no reason to jump on him here. He's won just once in eight career starts and his best Beyer figure is 87 – overmatched.
5. American Pharoah (Victor Espinoza, 3-5): The favorite has lost the last nine Belmont stakes and all 11 Triple Crown winners had raced at Belmont before running in the 1½-mile Belmont Stakes. Pharoah has never run at Belmont. But, he was a 2-year-old champion, has won six-straight races all with Beyer figures over 100, and importantly he’s held his weight steady since his Derby start. When Baffert entered stablemate Dortmund in the Preakness he was stating the obvious: there isn’t a 3-year-old in training that can beat him anywhere.
6. Frosted (Joel Rosario, 5-1): Is a half-brother to Tonalist who spoiled California Chrome’s Triple Crown hopes last year. Was a hard-charging fourth after a dismal start in the Kentucky Derby and the fact that he's already raced at Belmont (finishing second as a 2-year-old) makes him the biggest threat. His best race was a win in the Wood at Aqueduct but he can't spot the chalk too much distance or he'll never catch him,
7. Keen Ice (Kent Desormeaux, 20-1): Also skipped the Preakness after encountering major traffic problems in the Kentucky Derby where he finished seventh at 45-1. He’s sure to take some money here but the lack of much speed up front should severely hinder his chances.
8 Materiality (Jorge Velasquez, 6-1): The second Pletcher charge and another with a good chance to play the role of spoiler. He was left at the gate in the Derby but then staged an unlikely rally to finish sixth posting the fastest time of all the runners in the final half mile. The Derby loss was his first in four starts and he usually breaks well. Really thought he'd be a menace in the Preakness but he wasn't ready and he spent two straight weeks training at Belmont for this race.
Picks: 1. American Pharoah. 2. Materiality. 3. Frosted. 4. Mubtaahij.
Here we go again. Thirteen times since Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978 has a horse entered the Belmont Stakes with a chance to make history and each time they’ve failed.
What makes this year different?
Here’s a look at the field for Saturday’s Belmont Stakes:
1. Mubtaahij (Jockey, Irad Ortiz, odds 10-1): Took a lot of money at the windows in the Kentucky Derby and finished a hard-closing eighth. Should be able to get the Belmont’s grueling distance but don't think he's a major threat. Import, who won the UAE Derby, skipped the Preakness to freshen up.
2. Tale of Verve (Gary Stevens, 15-1): Has just one win in seven career starts but he took a game second in the Preakness making his entry in this race seem legitimate. Also shown ability to come from off the pace and has run six straight races over a mile long but it took him six tries to break his maiden and this is too steep a challenge.
3. Madefromlucky (Javier Castellano, 12-1): First of two Todd Pletcher-trained horses in the field and if one trainer would like to prevent Bob Baffert from winning the Triple Crown, it's Pletcher. This one won the Peter Pan over this surface but was walloped by American Pharoah twice at Oaklawn once in the slop and once on a fast surface.
4. Frammento (Mike Smith, 30-1): Didn't like him in the Kentucky Derby where he finished 11th and there's no reason to jump on him here. He's won just once in eight career starts and his best Beyer figure is 87 – overmatched.
5. American Pharoah (Victor Espinoza, 3-5): The favorite has lost the last nine Belmont stakes and all 11 Triple Crown winners had raced at Belmont before running in the 1½-mile Belmont Stakes. Pharoah has never run at Belmont. But, he was a 2-year-old champion, has won six-straight races all with Beyer figures over 100, and importantly he’s held his weight steady since his Derby start. When Baffert entered stablemate Dortmund in the Preakness he was stating the obvious: there isn’t a 3-year-old in training that can beat him anywhere.
6. Frosted (Joel Rosario, 5-1): Is a half-brother to Tonalist who spoiled California Chrome’s Triple Crown hopes last year. Was a hard-charging fourth after a dismal start in the Kentucky Derby and the fact that he's already raced at Belmont (finishing second as a 2-year-old) makes him the biggest threat. His best race was a win in the Wood at Aqueduct but he can't spot the chalk too much distance or he'll never catch him,
7. Keen Ice (Kent Desormeaux, 20-1): Also skipped the Preakness after encountering major traffic problems in the Kentucky Derby where he finished seventh at 45-1. He’s sure to take some money here but the lack of much speed up front should severely hinder his chances.
8 Materiality (Jorge Velasquez, 6-1): The second Pletcher charge and another with a good chance to play the role of spoiler. He was left at the gate in the Derby but then staged an unlikely rally to finish sixth posting the fastest time of all the runners in the final half mile. The Derby loss was his first in four starts and he usually breaks well. Really thought he'd be a menace in the Preakness but he wasn't ready and he spent two straight weeks training at Belmont for this race.
Picks: 1. American Pharoah. 2. Materiality. 3. Frosted. 4. Mubtaahij.
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