The Bum's 2014 Major League Baseball playoff schedule - Trends News -Best Bets !

[KazDog]

Evening Picks:


Washington - 9:00 PM ET San Francisco +125 500 *****

San Francisco - Over 6.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Good call!

[StarDust Bum]

Thanks KAZ .....the giants had so many chances to take this game over the total.......bases loaded and scored just one run.....owell got the dog for the winner......

[KazDog]

You've been on fire bro! Giants squeaked into the playoffs again. We'll see what kind of run they can make....

[StarDust Bum]

2014 MLB Playoff Results

October 8, 2014

Overall Results:

-- Underdogs are 11-5

-- Run-Line Favorites are 3-2

-- Road teams are 9-7

-- The 'Under' is 10-6

American League Divisional Series


Baltimore wins series 3-0

Kansas City wins series 3-0


Detroit vs. Baltimore

Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

1 Detroit at Baltimore (+110) 12-3 Underdog Over 7

2 Detroit at Baltimore (-120) 7-6 Favorite Over 7 ½

3 Baltimore (+155) at Detroit 2-1 Underdog Under 7 ½


Kansas City vs. Los Angeles

Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

1 Kansas City (+165) at Los Angeles 3-2 (11) Underdog Under 7 ½

2 Kansas City (+155) at Los Angeles 4-1 (11) Underdog Under 7

3 Los Angeles at Kansas City (-120) 8-3 Favorite Over 7


National League Divisional Series

San Francisco wins series 3-1

St. Louis wins series 3-1


San Francisco vs. Washington

Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

1 San Francisco (+165) at Washington 3-2 Underdog Under 7

2 San Francisco (+180) at Washington 2-1 (18) Underdog Under 7

3 Washington (+120) at San Francisco 4-1 Underdog Under 6 ½

4 Washington at San Francisco (+135) 3-2 Underdog Under 6 ½


St. Louis vs. Los Angeles

Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

1 St. Louis (+165) at Los Angeles 10-9 Underdog Over 6

2 St. Louis at Los Angeles (-170) 3-2 Favorite Under 7

3 Los Angeles at St. Louis (-105) 3-1 Favorite Under 7 ½

4 Los Angeles at St. Louis (+155) 3-2 Underdog Under 6 ½


Wild Card

Wild Card Game

Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

AL Oakland at Kansas City (+100) 9-8 (12) Underdog Over 6 ½

NL San Francisco (-110) at Pittsburgh 8-0 Favorite Over 6 ½

[StarDust Bum]

Cardinals built with homegrown players

October 9, 2014


Matt Carpenter, whose bases-loaded double off Clayton Kershaw propelled St. Louis to victory in its NL Division Series opener, was a 13th-round draft pick signed for $1,000 five years ago.

Kolten Wong, who hit the tiebreaking, two-run homer for the Cardinals in Game 3 against the Dodgers, was a first-round selection in 2011 with a $1.3 million signing bonus.

And Matt Adams, whose three-run homer in Game 4 on Tuesday put St. Louis in the NL Championship Series for the fourth straight year, cost just $25,000 to sign when the Cardinals drafted him in the 23rd round in 2009 - the 699th pick overall.

Building largely from within in the free-agent era, St. Louis topped the 10 postseason teams with 17 homegrown players on its 25-man division-series roster, according to STATS.

The total cost of those initial contracts: $13,082,500.

That's just more than half the $23 million the Los Angeles Angels are paying Albert Pujols, the three-time NL MVP who left the Cardinals after the 2011 World Series title for the riches of southern California.

''That's something we as an organization take a lot of pride in,'' Cardinals manager Mike Matheny said, ''when you see how many of these kids came up through and are contributing, not just making it here, but thriving at this level and helping us to be able to walk in there and pop champagne.''

Among the postseason teams, Kansas City is second with 13 homegrown players, followed by San Francisco (12), the Angels (11), Washington and the Dodgers (10 each), Pittsburgh (nine), Baltimore and Detroit (seven each) and Oakland (one) - pitcher Sean Doolittle.

While baseball's biggest spenders already are home, the final four teams rank sixth in payroll (San Francisco), 11th (St. Louis), 14th (Baltimore) and 19th (Kansas City).

Baseball's collective bargaining system rewards teams that made good scouting decisions on young players, whose salaries are a fraction of what veteran stars earn.

''We have to use our farm system, obviously, in a variety of ways, not only to transition championship players to the major leagues, but we have to use it to acquire talent,'' Royals general manager Dayton Moore said.

A swap brought Kansas City ace James Shields, who will start the ALCS opener against the Orioles. The Royals paid a hefty price, sending Wil Myers to Tampa in the 2012 offseason - Myers was last year's AL Rookie of the Year.

Like the Cardinals, Kansas City had three homegrown players drive in the go-ahead runs in the Division Series - all former high first-round draft picks who have all struggled to live up to their hype: Mike Moustakas ($4 million as second overall in 2007), Eric Hosmer ($6 million as third overall in 2008) and Alex Gordon ($4 million as second overall in 2005).

Ten of Kansas City's players were acquired in the June draft of high school and college players who reside in the U.S., Canada and Puerto Rico, and three were signed as amateur free agents.

Fifteen Cardinals were obtained in the June draft and two as amateur free agents. Five more were acquired in trades and just three signed as major league free agents: shortstop Jhonny Peralta and pitchers Randy Choate and Pat Neshek. And while Peralta was given a $53 million, four-year contract last offseason, Choate is in the middle of a $7.5 million, three-year deal. Neshek signed a minor league contract just before spring training, earned a $1 million salary after making the big league team and became a first-time All-Star.

They joined a core of players who have known each other for several years.

''I think it does start in the minor leagues,'' Cardinals pitcher Michael Wacha said. ''Every single minor leaguer, they're kind of preached on that whenever you get up to St. Louis, you're expected to win.''

John Mozeliak was hired by the Cardinals' scouting department after the 1995 season, kept gaining promotions and became general manager in October 2007. His current roster includes five first-round draft picks - none higher than the 19th selection because St. Louis has had a winning record during each year of his tenure.

And his group also includes passed-over players whose draft slots read a bit like a lottery ticket, with Adams joined by picks Nos. 350 (Seth Maness), 399 (Carpenter), 639 (Trevor Rosenthal), 802 (Tony Cruz) and 965 (Sam Freeman).

Homegrown players aren't a new trend for St. Louis: Three of them also drove in the go-ahead runs against Washington in the 2012 NL Division Series: Daniel Descalso, Allen Craig and Pete Kozma.

''I think it shows that they believe within the organization,'' Adams said. ''They draft guys that they can develop and are their type of player. That's a big thing, knowing that if you get drafted by the Cardinals, you know that you're going to have a chance to come up through the organization and play in the big leagues with them.''

[StarDust Bum]

Davis and West are crew chiefs for LCS

October 9, 2014


NEW YORK (AP) - Gerry Davis is going to be the crew chief for the NL Championship Series and Joe West is heading the umpires for the ALCS, each reprising the role they held last postseason.

Major League Baseball announced the crews Thursday.

Davis will be joined by Mark Carlson, Phil Cuzzi, Paul Emmel, Greg Gibson, Bill Miller and Bill Welke. Under the new format, the replay officials will be Emmel for Games 1 and 2 and then Cuzzi from Game 3 through end of the NLCS. Emmel will take Cuzzi's spot on the field. The series opens Saturday night in St. Louis.

Brian Gorman, Marvin Hudson, Dan Iassogna, Ron Kulpa, Tim Timmons and Mark Wegner comprise West's crew. Iassogna will be the replay official for the first two games, and he will swap spots with Timmons starting with Game 3. The ALCS is scheduled to start on Friday night in Baltimore.

Umpire Todd Tichenor will assist the designated replay officials in New York.

[StarDust Bum]

Wainwright to start Game 1 of NLCS

October 9, 2014


ST. LOUIS (AP) - St. Louis Cardinals manager Mike Matheny says rumors that Adam Wainwright is hurt are overblown.

Matheny is sticking with the same rotation that clicked in the first round, and Wainwright, the 20-game winner, is set to pitch Game 1 of the National League Championship Series against the San Francisco Giants. Matheny announced the starters on Thursday, two days ahead of the series opener.

Matheny said before the Cardinals beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS Game 4 clincher that Lance Lynn was available on regular rest if Wainwright couldn't go.

''I think there were some things taken out of context and blown up probably more than they needed to be when it was a statement of basically the obvious ... in case something didn't look right, feel right,'' Matheny said. ''He's fine and we'll just watch him closely like we watch everybody else.''

Lynn will work Game 2, followed by John Lackey and Shelby Miller. Michael Wacha, who didn't pitch in the Division Series, will remain a long-relief option out of the bullpen.

Wainwright had a rough start in Game 1 of the Division Series, allowing six runs on 11 hits in 4 1-3 innings. His velocity was down and he seemed to be emphasizing his curveball more than usual.

Matheny said it was ''stating the obvious, too, that Waino was struggling to find a good feel in Game 1.''

''But that's happened at different times throughout our season and he's been able to bounce back and figure it out and make it work,'' Matheny said. ''Not just make it work but being the lead pitcher.''

[StarDust Bum]

LCS Cheat Sheet

October 8, 2014

ALCS: Kansas City vs. Baltimore

Records:
KC: 93-73 overall, 44-39 home, 49-34 road
BAL: 99-66 overall, 52-31 home, 47-35 road

Playoff recap: The Royals and Orioles haven’t lost a game yet in the postseason as both teams are seeking their first World Series title since the mid-1980’s. Kansas City rallied from a four-run deficit to stun Oakland in the Wild Card round, 9-8, then used that momentum to sweep the team with the best record in baseball. The Royals won all three games against the Angels, which included a pair of extra-inning victories in Southern California as heavy underdogs.

Baltimore took care of AL Central champion Detroit in three games, capped off by a 2-0 triumph as hefty ‘dogs at Comerica Park in the series clincher of the ALDS. The Orioles limited the Tigers to 10 runs in the series sweep, while erasing a late three-run deficit in a 7-6 home victory in Game 2. Buck Showalter’s team was one of five clubs in baseball to win at least 50 home games in the regular season, as the Orioles compiled the most units in the sport this season (+3845).

Season series review: If the regular season was any indication, this should be an entertaining ALCS. Kansas City went 4-3 against Baltimore in seven matchups, including a 2-1 mark at Camden Yards. The two clubs split a four-game set in Kansas City in mid-May, which included a 2-1 and 1-0 result. Five of the seven contests finished ‘under’ the total, while the Royals went each of the two starts made by Game 1 starter James Shields.

NLCS: San Francisco vs. St. Louis

Records:
SF: 92-75 overall, 46-37 home, 46-38 road
STL: 93-73 overall, 53-30 home, 40-43 road

Playoff recap: Both these teams didn’t have home-field advantage in the NLDS, but found a way to knock off division champions. Granted, the Cardinals claimed the NL Central title, but it was no easy task to eliminate the Dodgers for the second straight postseason. St. Louis bumped Los Angeles in four games, while beating Cy Young favorite Clayton Kershaw twice, including in the Game 4 clincher at Busch Stadium, 3-2 as +150 home underdogs. The Cardinals have reached the NLCS for the fourth straight season and amazingly all three times since Albert Pujols departed in free agency after the 2011 title.

The Giants are looking to keep up their streak of domination in even years, at least in this decade. San Francisco hoisted a World Series championship trophy in 2010 and 2012, as Bruce Bochy’s team survived the Wild Card round with ease by shutting out the Pirates. The Giants stayed on the East Coast and edged the NL East Champion Nationals in a pair of road contests, while finishing off Washington at home in four games. San Francisco cashed as an underdog in all three wins, as this squad has won 11 of its past 11 playoff games since trailing the Cardinals, 3-1 in the 2012 NLCS.

Season series review: The road team dominated this series, posting a 5-2 record. San Francisco grabbed three of four meetings at Busch Stadium in late May, while scoring 23 runs in the three victories. The Cardinals picked up some revenge in the Bay Area one month later, taking two of three matchups. Game 1 starter Adam Wainwright split a pair of starts against the Giants this season, as the lone victory came at AT&T Park, tossing 7.2 scoreless innings in a 2-0 triumph. Giants’ ace Madison Bumgarner beat the Cardinals at Busch Stadium, but was knocked around at home as a -155 favorite in a 7-2 defeat.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Dunkel

Kansas City at Baltimore
The Royals head to Baltimore to face the Orioles in Game 1 of the ALCS on Friday and come into the contest with a 6-0 record in their last 6 games as an underdog. Kansas City is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+110). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 10

Game 951-952: Kansas City at Baltimore (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 16.403; Baltimore (Tillman) 14.988
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+110); Over




MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, October 10

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KANSAS CITY (93 - 73) at BALTIMORE (99 - 66) - 8:05 PM
JAMES SHIELDS (R) vs. CHRIS TILLMAN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 100-66 (+39.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 38-22 (+13.0 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 52-31 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
BALTIMORE is 89-59 (+34.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 73-36 (+42.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BALTIMORE is 77-47 (+34.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BALTIMORE is 56-42 (+17.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BALTIMORE is 48-27 (+27.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BALTIMORE is 34-15 (+23.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
TILLMAN is 26-10 (+17.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 39-21 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 24-9 (+16.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 20-7 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 16-9 (+7.6 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 11-4 (+9.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 18-10 (+11.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 93-73 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 29-19 (+8.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
KANSAS CITY is 16-9 (+8.7 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 this season.
KANSAS CITY is 49-34 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 11-3 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Friday this season.
KANSAS CITY is 89-70 (+6.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
KANSAS CITY is 67-48 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 67-52 (+5.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
KANSAS CITY is 53-40 (+8.6 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
KANSAS CITY is 47-35 (+11.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
KANSAS CITY is 45-34 (+14.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
SHIELDS is 44-26 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 14-4 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 15-4 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 7-1 (+6.9 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less this season. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 13-4 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 9-2 (+7.2 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 14-3 (+10.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 8-0 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 7-0 (+7.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
BALTIMORE is 16-26 (-13.8 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 4-3 (+0.6 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.5 Units)

JAMES SHIELDS vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
SHIELDS is 11-7 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 3.52 and a WHIP of 1.214.
His team's record is 15-11 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 12-12. (-1.0 units)

CHRIS TILLMAN vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
TILLMAN is 2-2 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 6.20 and a WHIP of 1.413.
His team's record is 3-2 (+0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+0.9 units)

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Saturday, October 11

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SAN FRANCISCO (92 - 75) at ST LOUIS (93 - 73) - 8:05 PM
MADISON BUMGARNER (L) vs. ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 199-146 (+17.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 53-30 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
ST LOUIS is 53-30 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 43-31 (+10.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 24-14 (+11.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
WAINWRIGHT is 24-9 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
WAINWRIGHT is 32-13 (+15.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WAINWRIGHT is 10-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WAINWRIGHT is 48-23 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 92-75 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 46-38 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 16-8 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 92-75 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 86-73 (+20.5 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 61-45 (+12.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 15-6 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in playoff games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 52-39 (+13.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 21-17 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BUMGARNER is 14-5 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
BUMGARNER is 14-5 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
BUMGARNER is 12-2 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 46-45 (-7.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-3 (+1.3 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.1 Units)

MADISON BUMGARNER vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
BUMGARNER is 3-5 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.78 and a WHIP of 1.184.
His team's record is 3-5 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-6. (-5.3 units)

ADAM WAINWRIGHT vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
WAINWRIGHT is 5-5 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 2.86 and a WHIP of 1.131.
His team's record is 6-5 (-0.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-6. (-2.2 units)

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KANSAS CITY (93 - 73) at BALTIMORE (99 - 66) - 4:05 PM
YORDANO VENTURA (R) vs. WEI-YIN CHEN (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 4-3 (+0.6 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.5 Units)

YORDANO VENTURA vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
VENTURA is 1-1 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 1.26 and a WHIP of 1.186.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.0 units)

WEI-YIN CHEN vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
CHEN is 1-1 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 4.17 and a WHIP of 1.418.
His team's record is 3-3 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-1. (+3.9 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, October 10

Royals-Orioles
Shields is 1-1, 4.40 in his last five starts, 3-4, 4.96 in eight postseason starts; he is 2-0, 3.21 against Baltimore this season.

Tillman is 3-1, 3.03 in his last five starts; he threw nine shutout innings in his only '14 start vs Kansas City, but didn't get a decision. Tillman allowed two runs in five IP in winning his first postseason start.

Royals won ten of last twelve games, including last five in row; they're 8-2 in their last ten road games.

Orioles won last four games, allowing 10 runs; they're 22-6 in last 28 at home.




MLB

Friday, October 10

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Trend Report
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8:07 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 10 games when playing Baltimore
Kansas City is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing at home against Kansas City


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MLB

Friday, October 10

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ALCS Betting Preview: Royals at Orioles
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ALCS Betting Preview: Royals at Orioles (-125, 7)

The Kansas City Royals are entering their first American League Championship Series since winning the World Series in 1985. The Baltimore Orioles, who host the Royals in Game 1 of the ALCS on Friday, are back for the first time since 1997 and are searching for the franchise’s first pennant since 1983. The Orioles and Kansas City present a contrast of styles but got to the ALCS the same way – with strong starting pitching and dominant bullpen work.

Baltimore led the majors in home runs and was last in stolen bases during the regular season while Kansas City was last in home runs but sat on top in stolen bases. The Royals do all the things well that teams need to do to win without hitting home runs, including playing great defense, but started to power up in the postseason with key extra-inning blasts from Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. Even without Manny Machado, Chris Davis and Matt Wieters in the lineup, the Orioles pounded Detroit pitching in the ALDS behind a strong series from Nelson Cruz and consistent production from Nick Markakis in the leadoff spot.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: The Orioles opened as -120 favorites and are now up to -125. The total is set at 7.0.

INJURY REPORT: Orioles - 1B Chris Davis (out indefinitely, suspension).

WEATHER REPORT: There is a 74 percent chance of rain at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, while temperatures will be in the mid 50's. There will also be a slight five mile per hour wind blowing in from center field.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH James Shields (1-0, 4.91 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Chris Tillman (1-0, 3.60)

“Big Game” James was bailed out by his offense after allowing four runs in five innings in the wild-card game against Oakland and surrendered a pair of solo home runs before earning the win over Los Angeles in his lone ALDS start. The free agent to-be’s big-game reputation outpaces the actual results as he is 3-4 with a 4.96 ERA in eight career postseason starts, including 0-2 in the ALCS. Shields picked up a pair of wins over the Orioles earlier this season, yielding a total of five runs and 12 hits in 14 innings.

Tillman battled through five innings against Detroit in Game 1 of the ALDS and held the Tigers to a pair of solo home runs in earning the win. The 26-year-old completed seven innings only once in his last seven starts but issued only one walk against Detroit while striking out six. Tillman had no trouble going deep into the game against the Royals on May 16, when he tossed a five-hit shutout.

TRENDS:

* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Baltimore.
* Under is 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings.
* Royals are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Orioles are 20-6 in their last 26 home games versus a team with a winning record.

CONSENSUS: Just over 63 percent of wagers are backing the Orioles at -125.

[StarDust Bum]

ALCS Game 1 Preview

October 10, 2014


KANSAS CITY ROYALS (93-73) at BALTIMORE ORIOLES (99-66)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Baltimore -125, Kansas City +115, Total: 7
Opening Line & Total: Baltimore -129, Kansas City +119, Total: 7

Game 1 of the ALCS begins Friday night with the unlikely matchup between the Royals and Orioles.

The last time Kansas City made it this deep into the season was 1985 when they won the World Series behind the bat of George Brett, and hopes that its four-game playoff winning streak can be extended. The Royals were able to make an improbable comeback in the Wild Card game with an extra-inning victory and brought their momentum into the ALDS; sweeping the top-seeded Angels while playing two more extra-inning contests. Their clinching game was decisive, though, as they won 8-3 on Sunday behind home runs from both 1B Eric Hosmer and 3B Mike Moustakas. Hosmer has been the team’s most clutch hitter in the postseason, going 7-for-14 with a double, triple, two homers, 5 RBI and five runs.

The Orioles have also not been this deep into the playoffs in a while, dating back to 1997, but rolled through the Tigers in the ALDS while scoring 21 runs during the three-game sweep. Starter Bud Norris (6.1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 6 K's) outdueled David Price in Game 3, as Baltimore won 2-1 while OF Nelson Cruz provided the two runs with a long ball. Cruz had two hits in each game of the ALDS, going 6-for-12 with two homers, 5 RBI and four runs. RHP James Shields (1-0, 4.91 ERA) will make his third start of these playoffs in this contest, as he goes against RHP Chris Tillman (1-0, 3.60 ERA) for the host Orioles. The Royals have not had any issues when playing on the road, tying the Dodgers for the best away record in baseball at 49-34 (.590), but Baltimore is a stellar 52-31 (.627, T-2nd in MLB) when playing at Camden Yards.

These two clubs have been nearly even when meeting over the past three seasons with the Royals holding a slight 12-11 edge overall including 7-6 on the road. Bettors should know that Kansas City is 24-8 (.750) after having won six or seven of their previous eight games this season, while the Orioles are 25-6 (.806) when the total is 7 to 8.5 and their ace Tillman is on the mound. As far as injuries are concerned, the Royals have no one missing of note while Baltimore continues to be without the services of 1B Chris Davis (suspension) and 3B Manny Machado (knee).

James Shields is one of the more consistent starters in the majors, with double-digit victories in each of the past eight seasons while posting an ERA below 3.55 in each of the past four years. He controls the plate with extreme effectiveness (1.7 BB/9 in 2014) while striking out his fair share of batters (7.1 K/9 in 2014) and forces hitters to hit the ball on the ground 45.2% of the time. In his two postseason starts so far, he has thrown 11 innings while allowing six runs on 11 hits (3 HR). In his career against the Orioles, Shields is 11-7 (15-11 team record) with a 3.52 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, and was victorious in both his outings this season. OFs Adam Jones (.304 BA, 5 doubles, 1 triple, 1 HR, 6 RBI in 46 AB) and Nick Markakis (.296 BA, 5 doubles, 2 HR, 8 RBI in 71 AB) have done well when facing the Royals’ ace, while OFs Alejandro De Aza and Nelson Cruz have combined to go a meager 9-for-51 (.176) with nine strikeouts in the matchup. Kansas City’s bullpen has been tremendous all season with a 31-18 record (.633), 3.26 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while saving 55-of-66 (83%) games.

The road numbers are even more amazing, especially the 2.37 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Closer Greg Holland (0.00 ERA, 2 saves in postseason) struck out 13 batters per nine innings over the regular season and has already mowed down seven while not allowing a hit in his four appearances (4 IP).

Chris Tillman had his second consecutive season with at least 200 innings while recording 14 wins, and has led his team to a 25-10 record (.714) in his starts. The O's ace decreased his home run rate to 0.91 HR/9 after posting a rather high number last year (1.44 HR/9). He has done this without the most prolific strikeout rate (6.5 K/9 in 2014) while getting lucky with batters hitting a mere .267 BABIP against him. Tillman did well in his win over the Tigers in what was his first career postseason start (5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 6 K's).

Against the Royals in his career, Tillman is 2-2 (3-2 team record) with a 6.20 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, but he tossed a five-hit shutout in his only start versus K.C. this season on May 16. OF Alex Gordon has gone just 3-for-13 in the matchup but has two homers with three RBIs in those at-bats while SS Alcides Escobar (4-for-11, 1 double) and 3B Mike Moustakas (3-for-8, 1 HR, 2 RBI) have also done well. On the other hand, DH Billy Butler (2-for-14, 1 HR, 2 RBI), OF Lorenzo Cain (1-for-5, 2 K's) and 1B Eric Homser (1-for-8) have all done poorly in the matchup. The relievers for the Orioles have had a stellar season, going 29-21 (.580) with a 3.07 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while saving 55-of-74 (74%) chances. These numbers improve to 18-6 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at home, and so far in the postseason, the bullpen has a 2.25 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 12 innings.

Closer Zach Britton (3.86 ERA, 2 saves) is 2-for-2 in saves so far in the postseason after forcing hitters to hit the ball on the ground an amazing 82.3% of the time in the regular season.

[StarDust Bum]

Royals stand pat; Os add Matusz for ALCS

October 10, 2014


BALTIMORE (AP) - The Kansas City Royals will enter the AL Championship Series with the same 25-man roster they used in a sweep of the Los Angeles Angels.

Manager Ned Yost has an 11-man pitching staff, six outfielders, five infielders, designated hitter Billy Butler and catchers Salvador Perez and Erik Kratz.

Baltimore's roster, as expected, does not include suspended first baseman Chris Davis.

The Orioles have an 11-man pitching staff that includes left-handed reliever Brian Matusz. He replaced Ubaldo Jimenez, who was part of Baltimore's roster for the ALDS.

That was the only change in manager Buck Showalter's roster.

Game 1 is scheduled for Friday night, weather permitting.

[StarDust Bum]

Pierzynski added to Cards roster for NLCS

October 10, 2014


ST. LOUIS (AP) - A.J. Pierzynski has been added to the St. Louis Cardinals roster for the NL Championship Series and lefty reliever Sam Freeman has been taken off.

Manager Mike Matheny said Friday that Pierzynski gave the team an experienced bat off the bench, and a third catcher that allows for use of backup Tony Cruz against the San Francisco Giants. The best-of-seven series starts Saturday night.

Workouts Friday were mostly indoors because of rain.

Freeman walked two batters in his lone appearance in the division series against the Dodgers. He was 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in 44 games during the season.

Pierzynski got a lot of playing time when Yadier Molina was sidelined two months with a torn ligament in his right thumb. He batted .244 with a homer and six RBIs in 30 games and was 5 for 14 as a pinch hitter with the Cardinals and Red Sox.

[StarDust Bum]

Gore, Young the latest subs to make impact

October 10, 2014


Delmon Young is a power hitter without much speed. Terrance Gore can breeze around the bases - but he might never be good enough with the bat to play consistently at the major league level.

Young and Gore, with their specialized skill sets, may not spend much time on the field this October, but if used properly, they can both make a difference in the late innings. Already, Gore has made his mark as a pinch-runner for the speedy Kansas City Royals, while Young provided perhaps Baltimore's biggest swing of this postseason so far, a three-run, pinch-hit double in Game 2 of the AL Division Series against Detroit.

A dependable bench can be a major asset during the playoffs, giving managers more flexibility in tight games. In honor of Young, Gore and the rest of baseball's super subs, here are a few of the most famous postseason performances by position players who weren't in the starting lineup:

COOKIE LAVAGETTO and AL GIONFRIDDO, DODGERS (1947 WORLD SERIES)

Brooklyn was one out from being no-hit by Bill Bevens of the Yankees in Game 4 when Lavagetto stepped up as a pinch-hitter with two on. His double scored both runners to give the Dodgers a 3-2 win over New York. It was the final hit of Lavagetto's career.

Gionfriddo scored on that play as a pinch-runner, but his most famous contribution came in Game 6. After entering as a defensive replacement, he ran down Joe DiMaggio's deep flyball for a catch that had the Yankee Clipper kicking the dirt in exasperation.

DUSTY RHODES, GIANTS (1954 WORLD SERIES)

Rhodes homered as a pinch-hitter to give New York a 5-2 victory over Cleveland in the series opener - a game remembered more for Willie Mays' over-the-shoulder catch of Vic Wertz's long drive to center. Rhodes would also come off the bench to hit a single and a homer in Game 2, and a two-run single in Game 3.

SANDY AMOROS, DODGERS (1955 WORLD SERIES)

With the Dodgers trying to protect a 2-0 lead in Game 7 against the Yankees, Amoros came on as a defensive replacement and made a terrific running catch of Yogi Berra's flyball down the line in left. The two-run lead held up, and Brooklyn finally won its first World Series title.

BERNIE CARBO, RED SOX (1975 WORLD SERIES)

Carlton Fisk won Game 6 against Cincinnati with his 12th-inning homer, but the game probably never reaches that point without Carbo's three-run shot as a pinch-hitter in the eighth. That homer tied the game, setting the stage for a long night in Boston.

DAVE HENDERSON, RED SOX (1986 ALCS)

Henderson's ninth-inning homer in Game 5 against California - with Boston one out from elimination - is one of the most memorable hits in team history. What's often forgotten is that he was not in the starting lineup that day. Henderson entered in the fifth after Tony Armas injured his ankle.

KIRK GIBSON, DODGERS (1988 WORLD SERIES)

Gibson was too injured to start Game 1 for Los Angeles, but he hobbled to the plate in the ninth as a pinch-hitter and hit a two-out, two-run homer off Oakland's Dennis Eckersley for a 5-4 victory in what became the defining moment of the fiery outfielder's career.

FRANCISCO CABRERA, BRAVES (1992 NLCS)

Cabrera had all of 11 plate appearances during the regular season that year, but he was the man pinch-hitting for Atlanta with two outs and the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth of Game 7. Cabrera's single to left scored two runs and gave the Braves a 3-2 victory over Pittsburgh.

AARON BOONE, YANKEES (2003 ALCS)

New York had already tied Game 7 with three runs in the eighth off Boston's Pedro Martinez. Then Boone came on as a pinch-runner and was stranded on base.

His spot in the order didn't come around until the 11th, when Boone led off with a pennant-winning homer and etched his name permanently into Yankees lore.

DAVE ROBERTS, RED SOX (2004 ALCS)

Boston lost the first three games of the series and trailed by a run in the ninth inning of Game 4 - with Mariano Rivera of the Yankees on the mound. Then Roberts came in as a pinch-runner and stole second, and he scored the tying run moments later.

The Red Sox would rally to win the pennant in improbable fashion - Roberts would score the tying run as a pinch-runner in Game 5 as well - and Boston eventually beat St. Louis to win its first World Series title since 1918. Roberts never actually batted for the Red Sox in the postseason, but his impact was immense.

RAUL IBANEZ, YANKEES (2012 ALDS)

New York trailed Baltimore by a run in the ninth inning of Game 3 when manager Joe Girardi boldly pinch-hit for star Alex Rodriguez. Ibanez came through, homering to tie the game. Then he added another solo shot in the 12th to win it.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/07/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% +*240 Detail

10/06/14 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1080 Detail

10/05/14 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2290 Detail

10/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% +310 Detail

10/03/14 6-*2-*0 75.00% +*2395 Detail

10/02/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*450 Detail

10/01/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

09/30/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail


Totals 22-*8-*0 73.33 % +78.65


Rated Plays Only Record:


6 - 2 ........ + 4.25.......*****

8 - 4..........+ 14.46 ......Double Play

7 - 3 .........+ 10.27.....Triple Play

1 - 0 .........+ 4.72.......Grand Slam



Friday, October 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Kansas City - 8:00 PM ET Baltimore -130 500 GRAND SLAM

Baltimore - Over 7 500 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/10/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail

10/07/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% +*240 Detail

10/06/14 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*1080 Detail

10/05/14 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2290 Detail

10/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% +310 Detail

10/03/14 6-*2-*0 75.00% +*2395 Detail

10/02/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*450 Detail

10/01/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

09/30/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 23-*9-*0 71.87 % +7715


Rated Plays Only Record:


6 - 2 ........ + 4.25.......*****

9 - 4..........+ 16.46 ......Double Play

7 - 3 .........+ 10.27.....Triple Play

1 - 1 .........- 0.48.......Grand Slam