Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2014, 09:06 PM

Wild Card Matchups

September 28, 2014

Athletics at Royals – Tuesday, 8:00 PM EST

Oakland: 88-74 overall, 40-41 on road
Kansas City: 89-73 overall, 43-29 at home

Probable Pitchers:
OAK: Lester (16-11, 2.46 ERA)
KC: Shields (15-8, 3.21 ERA)

Season series: The Royals dominated the A’s by winning five of seven meetings, including three of four at Kauffman Stadium in mid-August. However, Oakland’s two wins came with Jon Lester on the mound, as the southpaw allowed six earned runs in those two starts, but the A’s outscored the Royals, 19-6 in those two victories. In the five losses, Oakland tallied just seven runs. James Shields beat the A’s twice, which included a magnificent eight-inning performance in a 4-2 victory at Oakland as a +150 underdog.

Season recap: Oakland was 57-33 on July 8, but stumbled to a 31-41 finish, which included a 10-23 stretch from mid-August through mid-September. Kansas City had a roller coaster season en route to its first playoff appearance since winning the World Series way back in 1985. The Royals were sitting below the .500 mark in the first week of June at 29-32, but pulled off a 10-game winning streak, which included a six straight road victories. Kansas City caught fire in August by winning 17 of its first 21 games, while coming down to the final day of the season with a shot to win the AL Central title.

Up next: The winner of this series will face the Angels in the American League Divisional Series. Looking ahead, the Royals split six meetings with the Halos this season as each team went 2-1 at home. Oakland and Los Angeles were pretty even as well, as the Angels went 10-9 in 19 matchups with the A’s, while L.A. won seven of the final eight meetings.

Giants at Pirates – Wednesday, 8:00 PM EST

San Francisco: 88-74 overall, 43-38 on road
Pittsburgh: 88-74 overall, 51-30 at home

Probable Pitchers:
SF: Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA)
PIT: Undecided

Season series: The Pirates went 4-2 in six matchups against the Giants, winning each series. The first three matchups at PNC Park in early May were all decided by one run, which included an 11-10 extra-innings victory by the Giants. The Pirates walked off past the Giants the next night in a 2-1 triumph on a Starling Marte triple in which he scored on an error. At AT&T Park two months later, the Pirates dominated the Giants in the first two victories by outscoring San Francisco, 8-1. The Giants avoided the sweep in the finale in a back-and-forth affair as both teams blew leads in a 7-5 San Francisco victory.

Season recap: San Francisco began the season on fire with a 43-21 record, which was capped off by a 15-3 run. The Giants stumbled to a 10-22 mark heading into the All-Star break, pretty much falling behind the Dodgers for good in the NL West race. The second half saw the Giants play around .500 baseball, but a key 6-1 stretch in early September, along with Milwaukee melting down, gave San Francisco the advantage in the NL Wild Card. The Pirates started slowly, putting together a 10-18 mark through 28 games. A 22-11 run by Pittsburgh through June and early July got the Bucs back on track, while the Pirates went 17-4 in September to clinch home-field in Wednesday’s Wild Card matchup.

Up next: The Nationals are waiting in the wings, which would make for some interesting travel if the Giants were to win on Wednesday. Washington dominated San Francisco this season, winning five of seven matchups, including three of four at AT&T Park in June. The Pirates took three of four from the Nationals at home in their first series, but Washington swept Pittsburgh in D.C. in September, which included a pair of walk-off victories.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2014, 09:09 PM

Giants' Bumgarner will start NL wild card

September 28, 2014

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - Giants manager Bruce Bochy has announced the worst-kept secret in San Francisco's clubhouse: left-hander Madison Bumgarner will start Wednesday's wild-card game against Pittsburgh or St. Louis.

Bochy said before Sunday's regular-season finale against San Diego that he felt comfortable with Bumgarner or Jake Peavy on the mound. But given Bumgarner's success the last few years, he said ''I don't think there was any question who you pitch that game.''

Bumgarner was 18-10 with a 2.98 ERA this season. He has a 3-2 record with a 3.79 ERA in six postseason starts, all during San Francisco's runs to the 2010 and 2012 World Series titles.

The winner of the wild-card game will face the Washington Nationals in a best-of-five division series.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2014, 05:21 PM

Wild Card format offers pitching mismatches in MLB playoffs

It’s playtime in the major leagues. The intensity of both players and fans goes up a notch. Heck, in some cities you’ll even see the first sellout game of the season. How bout that?! Playoff baseball is as good as the game gets. It’s also when I slow down my betting.

The first obvious thing with the MLB playoffs is there are less games being played each day. Less games played means that there are less opportunities to find mismatches to bet. In fact, the matchups can be as tight as any you’ll see all year in baseball.

These are the best teams in the league playing one another. We're not looking for mismatches when the Minnesota Twins play the Detroit Tigers. Having said that, the Wild Card games offer some mismatches during the Division Series.

In the past, each team was able to set their pitching staff exactly the way they wanted matchups to play out. All games in the first series would start with team ace versus team ace and so on down the line. That's still the case with the first series but the recent addition of Wild Card games mean that matchups in the following series aren’t exactly as those teams would like.

No matter who the Wild Card playoff teams start in their games, their pitching rotation for the next series will be out of whack. Eventually, there is potential for a large mismatch if the Division Series go long enough.

If the Oakland A’s make the playoffs as a Wild Card team, the chances are good that they’ll pitch John Lester in that game making him less available for the AL Division Series if they win. Likewise if the Kansas City Royals win the game they won’t have James Shields available to matchup against Jered Weaver of the Los Angeles Angels in the first game of the AL Division Series.

Mismatches will continue for the next couple of games but should get back to normal for the World Series. I don't claim to be the smartest gambler around and look for obvious mismatches when I bet baseball. I'd rather bet a team that's +150 to +175 than a team that's plus or minus 110. This is why baseball betting is so attractive to me. I can win less than I do in football or basketball but win more money.

I rarely find value with series bets, so I've kept my MLB betting to a minimum during the playoffs. For a change, I watch the games as a fan. We'll see how things develop with the individual games but I'm happy sitting back and rooting for the Washington Nationals to cash my World Series futures bet from before the season.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2014, 05:24 PM

2014 Playoff Outlook

September 29, 2014

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Unlike the past two seasons, one team we are not fearing is the Oakland A's (5/1) , who had MLB's best record as of Aug. 8, but proceeded to lose 30 of their next 46 and had to wait until the final day of the regular season before clinching a postseason berth. It looks like GM Billy Beane made one move too many at the trade deadline, as dealing OF Yoenis Cespedes to the Bosox in the Jon Lester trade would significantly hamper the offense and remove its most-intimidating element; after leading MLB in runs scored prior to the Cespedes trade, Oakland has been the AL's lowest-scoring team. Midseason rotation additions Lester and Jeff Samardzija make it hard to dismiss the A's in a short series, but the offense has been too easily shackled minus Cespedes.

We are more wary of Oakland's wild card opponent, the Kansas City Royals (7/1) , who also have a parade of arms and an overflow of quality in the rotation led by James Shields and recently-dominating Danny Duffy. Though Kansas City is apt to slump at the plate, it has enough pitching to cause serious problems for any foe in a short series and gets to host the A's in Tuesday's wild card game at the Big K.

We do not believe the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (2/1) have a smooth ride awaiting to the World Series despite their home-field edge as long as they stay alive in the postseason. Mike Scioscia has hinted that he could go with a three-man rotation (Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, and Hector Santiago should rookie Matt Shoemaker's oblique strain not heal in time) in the playoffs. But it's the Angels' win percentage vs. playoff-quality foes, hovering around .400 all season (compared to near-.700 vs. also-rans), that is a postseason red flag. Mike Trout's propensity for strikeouts (a whopping 183) is also too easily dismissed by his many supporters. Without the Astros, White Sox, Rangers, or Twins to knock around in October, the Halos might be more vulnerable than many believe.

If the Angels meet the Baltimore Orioles (3/1), it won't happen until the ALCS, and the Birds would have no fear of that matchup after taking 4 of 6 from the Halos this season. There has been some magic about this version of the O's, who have kept scoring runs and winning despite injuries to 3B Manny Machado and C Matt Weiters and the suspension of 1B Chris Davis. And while many wonder if the Birds have enough starting pitching (Bud Norris? Chris Tillman? Wei-Yin Chen?) to survive in the postseason, Buck Showalter has squeezed every possible ounce out of his versatile bullpen. If the relievers' arms haven't fallen off by now, they probably won't in October, either.

How about the Detroit Tigers (5/2)? Although having dealt with myriad bullpen issues in recent years, the problems seem especially acute this season as manager Brad Ausmus has shown less and less faith in erratic closer Joe Nathan as the season has progressed. Moreover, the staff seems a bit less menacing than recent years, with Justin Verlander having lost considerable velocity, and David Price proving inconsistent since his trade-deadline acquisition from the Rays. The Tigers need their offense clicking, because the rotation and bullpen have performed so inconsistently, which should give the edge to the Birds in the ALDS.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Sometimes, "addition by subtraction" really is meaningful in pro sports. And we suggest the injury to 3B Pedro Alvarez has in fact made the Pittsburgh Pirates (11/2) more of a postseason threat. It is no coincidence that the Pirates won 17 of 21 down the stretch with Alvarez sidelined and with do-everything Josh Harrison handling duties effectively at the corner. The Bucs have star power with Andrew McCutchen and a staff with plenty of momentum, as Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez have been two of the NL's hottest starters since the All-Star break. The Pirates just missed winning the NL Central, so they must go the wild card route, but they have postseason experience now after advancing from the wild card to the NLDS last season.

We suspect the Bucs are more of a threat than their wild card foe, the San Francisco Giants (7/1) , who have been playing sub-.500 ball (45-53) since early June, a far cry from their World Series winners of 2010 & '12 that hit stride following the All-Star break. The Giants must go on the road to PNC Park for Wednesday's wild card game.

We look forward to the rematch of last year's NLCS, this year a round sooner, between the Los Angeles Dodgers (2/1) and St. Louis Cardinals (7/1) . Interestingly, normally unhittable Dodger ace Clayton Kershaw was anything but in playoffs vs. the Cards last season. But even with Kershaw in untouchable form, the Dodgers performed in an uneven manner much of the campaign, barely getting above .500 at home until late in the season (though the Blue owns MLB's best road mark at 49-32), and there are depth problems in the rotation beyond Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Mercurial OF Yasiel Puig has also failed to smooth the many rough spots in his game that were exploited by the Redbirds last October. Considering the Dodgers' inside-out home-road pattern this season, perhaps it's a break for St. Louis to open the NLDS on the road.

If Adam Wainwright (1.62 ERA in five September starts) can outduel Kershaw in the opener, the momentum of the series shifts completely in St. Louis' direction. No team has fared as well in the postseason lately as the Cardinals, who can still manufacture runs effectively and own proven October forces in Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina. Mike Matheny also has more bullpen options than Don Mattingly, though closer Trevor Rosenthal did blow six saves this season.

But if it's not the Pirates emerging from the in the NL, we expect it will be the Washington Nationals (2/1), who like the Bucs also have had a recent taste of the postseason (2012), though they would rather not recall blowing a 6-0 lead in the deciding Game 5 vs. the Cards in the NLDS. There is more experience and depth on the roster than in 2012, though we wonder about the offense beyond reliable contact hitters CF Denard Span and 3B Ryan Zimmerman. Manager Matt Williams was also forced to realign his bullpen, where the Nats fortunately have several options and recently anointed Drew Storen the new closer after Rafael Soriano began to wobble in August. The pressure is also on flamethrower Stephen Strasburg, who missed the playoffs due to arm problems two years ago. But Jordan Zimmerman is certainly in top form after no-hitting the Marlins in Sunday's regular-season finale. And the Nats earned home-field edge in the NL mainly because of MLB's best ERA, the NL's third highest-scoring offense, and arguably best defense of any contender.

It would not surprise us to see a Beltway World Series. But if the Nats have to hook the Pirates in the NLDS, we might eventually be treated to a rematch of memorable 1971 and '79 Fall Classics between the Bucs and O's instead.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2014, 11:47 PM

MLB announces umpiring crews for wild-card games and division series

September 29, 2014 5:42 pm ET

The postseason is set to begin with the AL wild-card game on Tuesday. The NL wild-card game will follow on Wednesday before the division series begin on Thursdayand Friday. Here's the full postseason schedule.

MLB announced the umpiring crews for the wild-card games and division series round on Monday afternoon. They are as follows:

AL wild-card game (Athletics vs. Royals): Gerry Davis (crew chief), James Hoye, Dan Iassogna, Bill Miller, Todd Tichenor and Bill Welke.

NL wild-card game (Giants vs. Pirates): Joe West (crew chief), Doug Eddings, Paul Emmel, Andy Fletcher, Brian Gorman and Mark Wegner.

ALDS A (Angels vs. A's/Royals): Ted Barrett (crew chief), Lance Barksdale, Chris Guccione, Paul Nauert, Jeff Nelson and Jim Reynolds.

ALDS B (Tigers vs. Orioles): Jeff Kellogg (crew chief), Scott Barry, Dan Bellino, Fieldin Culbreth, Paul Schrieber and Jim Wolf.

NLDS A (Nationals vs. Giants/Royals): Mike Winters (crew chief), Vic Carapazza, Laz Diaz, Tom Hallion, Brian Knight and Hunter Wendelstedt.

NLDS B (Dodgers vs. Cardinals): Dale Scott, Eric Cooper, Rob Drake, Jerry Layne, Jerry Meals and Alan Porter.

Additionally, the replay officials stationed in New York will be Phil Cuzzi and Tim Timmons for the wild-card games while CB Bucknor, Chris Conroy, Ed Hickox and Brian O'Nora will be the replay officials for the various division series.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2014, 11:54 PM

From Dodgers to A's, ranking title chances of MLB's 10 playoff teams

September 29, 2014 4:03 pm ET

If MLB wanted parity, well, here it is.

Any of the 10 postseason teams can legitimately win the World Series, though it obviously will be quite a bit harder for the wild-card teams, which have to win an extra round and also have to use their ace to get past that wild-card game (or cross their fingers with a No. 2-type pitcher in Pittsburgh's case) and contend with less rest.

The Dodgers, by virtue of having all-time great Clayton Kershaw in his peak, plus a superb second guy in Zack Greinke , are a World Series favorite. As are the Nationals, who topped off a spectacular finish for their rotation (an ERA under 1 over the final 13 starts) with Jordan Zimmermann's franchise-first no-hitter in the season finale.

It's still close to a crapshoot, with any of the 10 being at least something of a World Series threat -- though the A's obviously will have to snap out of their six-week offensive funk to have a realistic chance. Here's how I see the fabulous final 10 (with odds to win the World Series included).

1. Dodgers: If Hyun-Jin Ryu's shoulder is OK, and LA says it thinks it will be, the Dodgers have the best rotation. They may also have the best closer in the playoffs in Kenley Jansen, who features the best cutter this side of Mariano Rivera. Manager Don Mattingly helped get all the egos on the $230 million payroll into October, and it's unlikely to be as big of an issue in the playoffs, where the games mean more. It will, of course, help if Yasiel Puig can get back to his first-half heroics, but the Dodgers, who still scored more than anyone in September (156 runs), should have enough offense with Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp and a hot Adrian Gonzalez. Last year's playoff experience should help, too. Odds to win the World Series: 4-1.

2. Nationals: Zimmermann's gem put a bow on a spectacular finish for an extremely solid, sound team. Stephen Strasburg finally gets his chance at the postseason, and Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez round out an excellent rotation that posted an MLB-best 3.04 ERA. The one issue was at closer, where rookie manager Matt Williams tabbed Drew Storen to take over for struggling Rafael Soriano and is doing well. The bitter taste from 2012 could provide extra impetus. Odds to win the World Series: 5-1.

3. Angels: There is no question LA2 was the best team in the regular season, and it kept right on going after losing ace Garrett Richards, so the hope for a Freeway World Series is very real. C.J. Wilson is a playoff worry, and so is the rotation depth (Hector Santiago is the fourth starter if they decide to use one), but this team is a rare one in 2014 with such a dangerous offense (their 773 runs topped MLB) that it could blow teams out. Mike Trout is the best position player in the game, and the rest of the lineup isn't bad either. They can't count on the oft-injured Josh Hamilton, but Kole Calhoun is a not-so-secret weapon. Odds to win the World Series: 6-1.

4. Tigers: As usual, they didn't seem to quite play to their potential in the regular season, but their rotation of stars makes them a serious threat. There are issues, most prominently the bullpen, which has struggled (Detroit's 4.29 pen ERA was 27th) and doesn't have a dominating closer (though veteran Joe Nathan saved an above-average 83 percent of chances despite diminished stuff). If Miguel Cabrera isn't quite 100 percent, he's still a threat, and along with Victor Martinez and J.D. Martinez, they give the Tigers a strong middle of the order. Their 757 runs trailed only the Angels. They're not as strong in center field without Austin Jackson, and now Rajai Davis has a leg issue. The young left side of the infield is only serviceable. One of these years they're going to win it all. Odds to win the World Series: 7-1.

5. Orioles: Although there's no ace, their pitching still is better than folks think. Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris and Miguel Gonzalez all threw well this year. The bullpen was excellent, with Zach Britton often dominating as closer and Darren O'Day and Andrew Miller providing a superb righty-lefty setup combo. There's a temptation to wonder what might have been with Matt Wieters, Manny Machado and Chris Davis (who can re-enter mid-ALCS), but the offense was still strong, thanks to surprise contributions from journeymen Steve Pearce and Caleb Joseph for a while, plus lots of home runs (MLB-best 211). Nobody did a better job than manager Buck Showalter. Odds to win the World Series: 9-1.

6. Cardinals: This is their usual time to shine, and perhaps they will do it again. But their offense looked a lot better last year when Carlos Beltran was going strong. Without Beltran (he was missed more than even Albert Pujols, as it turned out, though he wasn't the same player for the Yankees), they struggled at the plate, amassing only 619 runs, good for only 24th in MLB. The Jhonny Peralta signing proved to be a boon, and they obviously have a lot of playoff experience. Adam Wainwright had his usual superb year, and Lance Lynn got much better, but 2013 postseason sensation Michael Wacha's no longer a secret (and his health situation is a bit of a question mark this time). Odds to win the World Series: 10-1.

7. Giants: With Madison Bumgarner going Wednesday, they have a slight pitching advantage in the wild-card matchup at Pittsburgh, and they've surprised us before (twice, in fact, 2010 and '12). They'll have to do it without Matt Cain and a diminished Tim Lincecum. But they helped themselves in the second half by adding a rejuvenated Jake Peavy and calling up rookie second baseman Joe Panik. Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey are veteran October contributors, and it's a good sign Hunter Pence has become an inspirational leader. Odds to win the World Series: 20-1.

8. Pirates: Nobody is hotter lately than Pittsburgh, though of course the extra game without Gerrit Cole starting against the clutch Giants doesn't help. Andrew McCutchen, Josh Harrison and Russell Martin all had superb seasons, they work counts (.330 on-base percentage, third in MLB) and they seem to have something special going again. A tough out. Odds to win the World Series: 20-1.

9. Royals: What a story it would be if the Royals could win the World Series after not making the playoffs 28 straight seasons. But that will be a tall task, of course. They rely on defense, speed and an excellent bullpen, so if they have the lead after six, they are exceptionally tough. James Shields is a great ace, Yordano Ventura is a big-time talent and Alex Gordon is much better than his raw offensive numbers, but this team has trouble scrounging up runs. Mike Moustakas seems like an automatic out at times, and Salvador Perez has been that way for some of the second half. Both players are keys to the excellent defense, of course. Odds to win the World Series: 22-1.

10. Athletics: They still have baseball's best run differential, and they have a very fine rotation. However, they've been having trouble coming by runs for weeks and had to go right until game No. 162 to lock down the spot over Seattle following an August and September slump. It's a good thing they made that trade for ace Jon Lester, as Yoesnis Cespedes wouldn't have been able to spare them from their offensive funk and Lester gives them a decent chance to win at least the wild-card game. But they are going to need someone from among Brandon Moss, Jed Lowrie and Coco Crisp to start hitting if they are going to get very far. Odds to win the World Series: 25-1.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2014, 11:57 PM

Preview: A's at Royals in AL wild-card game

September 29, 2014 2:41 pm ET

Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals, Tuesday, Sept. 30, 8:07 p.m. ET. TV: TBS

The 2014 MLB playoffs begin Tuesday night, when the A's visit Kauffman Stadium. It will mark the first postseason game in said venue since 1985. So, first and foremost, expect the crowd to be rocking all night long, assuming their Royals give them something to cheer for.

There is a historical oddity at play: The Athletics played in Kansas City from 1955-67.

Of course, that likely will have zero impact on the game, so let's focus on that.

Pitching matchup: Jon Lester (16-11, 2.46) vs. James Shields (14-8, 3.21)

Lester vs. Royals hitters: Lester went 8-5 with a 3.07 ERA on the road this season. He has only made five career starts in Kauffman Stadium, going 2-3 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. In 29 innings, he has not allowed a home run.

The Royals roster has a career line of .251/.336/.390 against Lester with 14 doubles and five homers in 258 plate appearances. Of the likely starters, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Omar Infante, Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas have seen Lester at least 15 times.

Butler (.143/.273/.179), Gordon (.160/.214/.240) and Infante (.150/.190/.150) have struggled, but Escobar (.353/.429/.471), Cain (.313/.353/.500) and Hosmer (.308/.471/.538) have fared well.

Bench player Jayson Nix is 8 for 26 (.308) with two doubles and three homers against Lester, so he could factor in late as a pinch hitter, should Lester still be in the game.

In 76 2/3 career postseason innings, Lester has a 2.11 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Last postseason, he was dominant for the Red Sox.

Shields vs. A's hitters: Shields was 4-6 with a 3.51 ERA at home, 10-2 and 2.97 on the road in 2014. Still, he has had plenty of good outings in KC.

Of the expected A's starters, only Adam Dunn, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Josh Reddick have at least 15 career plate appearances against Shields. They have a collective .217/.268/.309 slash line with five homers in 224 plate appearances.

Dunn has one of the homers, but overall he's hitting .200/.300/.286 against Shields. Crisp (.214/.241/.214) and Lowrie (.143/.136/.143) also have struggled. Reddick, though, has hit .318/.318/.864 with a double, triple, three homers and five RBI in only 22 at-bats against Shields. Josh Donaldson is only 2 for 9 (.222) against Shields, but has a home run.

In six career postseason starts, Shields is 2-4 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

Regular-season series: The clubs squared off seven times this season, with all seven games coming in August. The Royals won five of the seven, though they were outscored by two thanks to the two Oakland wins being blowouts (11-3 and 8-3).

What's interesting to note is that the two games the A's won were the two games Lester started. Of course, Shields started twice against the A's and the Royals won both of those. So something has to give here.

What to watch

• The long ball. Runs will be at a premium, so timely hitting is probably going to be what wins the game. A well-timed homer could be the difference. The A's have three players (Dunn, Donaldson and Brandon Moss) that have a good chance to run into one during any given game. The Royals, though, have zero 20-homer players.

• Can the A's score? Neither team is offensively strong at this point, but both pitch and defend well. The A's were once a great offensive team, but they hit just .228/.302/.316 in September and .223/.300/.345 in August. They averaged just 3.59 runs per game in those two months, scoring zero or one run 13 times.

• Bullpen management. It's do or die, so managers shouldn't stick to the book and should instead be creative. If there's a huge jam in the sixth inning for the Royals, for example, shouldn't Ned Yost bring in Wade Davis or Greg Holland? You want to win or lose with your best, not holding them back. Of course, Yost has made some arguably dubious decisions on this front of late, so the guess here is he doesn't stray from his gameplan of waiting for the eighth for Davis and ninth for Holland. It could come back to bite him, too.

Prediction: Lester dominates the Royals while the A's find a way to scratch and claw for two runs. 2-0, A's advance to the ALDS to face off against their division rival Angels.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-30-2014, 04:34 PM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

-- Not only did the Raiders fire coach Dennis Allen after an 0-4 start, they did it on the phone, not on the 11-hour flight home from London. Classy.

-- Chiefs 41, Patriots 14-- Rough night for 2-2 New England, which looks slow.

-- Buffalo Bills benched EJ Manuel, will start Kyle Orton at QB this week.

-- UNLV got a commitment from 4-star recruit Justin Jackson, a top 30 player in the Class of 2016. Good get for Dave Rice.

-- Astros hired AJ Hinch as their new manager, who went 89-123 as skipper of the Diamondbacks a few years. Smart guy, wasn't a great manager.

-- Minnesota Twins have had two managers since 1987; now they'll have a third, having fallen into decline even with a new ballpark.

**********

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but........

13) Arizona/Cincinnati is your unlikely “last unbeaten NFL team” quinella for this year, and both will be underdogs this week, the Cardinals in Denver, the Bengals in Foxboro Sunday nite. Could’ve made a lot of money betting on that this summer.

12) Speaking of the Bengals, they’re 93-85-1 under Marvin Lewis, who catches grief because Cincinnati hasn’t won a playoff game in his tenure as head coach. Forgotten is fact that the Bengals were 53-124 before Lewis became coach and were pretty much the worst franchise in the league. The man is underpaid and I have no idea how much he makes.

11) In two road games, Falcons allowed 12.6 and 10.6 ypg thru the air, in losses by 13-14 points. First team to win a couple road games might win the slog that is the NFC South.

10) Jets are 43rd team since 1992 to play three consecutive non-conference games, so it happens about twice a year. They’re the 9th of those 43 teams to lose all three games. Jets are back in AFC this week, out in San Diego.

9) Chargers are down to their #3 center, which leads to a botched snap here and there; it hurt them twice in the red zone against Jacksonville, but they’re so much better than the Jags, it didn’t factor in the outcome. It could against the Jets this week.

8) Teams with a +2 or better turnover ratio were 9-0 SU this past week, are 29-4 for the season.

7) Weird hearing Deion Sanders bash Jim Harbaugh, saying there are playing with the 49ers “who want him out” as head coach. Harbaugh is 38-13-1 with the 49ers, 2-2 this year; better be careful before you run a successful guy of town; chances are the next guy ain’t going 38-13.

6) Mack Brown-to-SMU rumors are all over the place; coaching can be addictive, the competition, the challenge of recruiting and trying to prove that you’re not too old to do the job. SMU has resources; they should be much better than they are and Brown can recruit. This could be interesting.

5) New Clippers’ owner Steve Ballmer is richest owner in North American team sports, which is part of why he overpaid to buy the Clippers. He is also the former head of Microsoft who will ease Apple products out of his organization. I’d be lost without my IPhone, guess I won’t be working for the Clippers anytime soon.

4) It is alarming that in the preseason rankings for college rifle shooting, Army is ranked 9th; shouldn’t they be first, like, always?

3) Cal Bears are tightening their academic requirements for athletes, which means basketball coach Cuonzo Martin picked a bad time to jump from Tennessee to Berkeley. You think USC, UCLA or Arizona is doing that? Oregon? Ha!!!! There are so many gifted basketball players who fit into the high academic model.

2) Twins fired Ron Gardenhire Monday; I once got yelled at by a Twins’ fan in Las Vegas for suggesting that Gardenhire might be a good manager. This guy had specific examples of why he was terrible and this was 3-4 years ago. That man, who was a friend of a friend but not someone I knew, is probably a little happier today.

1) Underrated bad job: Customer service phone rep. I listened to a woman I work with shred a phone operator this morning, just rip her, then she called back twice more and did it again, with other operators. Must be fun making not much money to get yelled at all day. Wonder how many times they get thanked for their efforts.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-30-2014, 04:37 PM

MLB
Dunkel

Oakland at Kansas City
The Royals host the AL Wild Card game tonight and come into the contest with a 4-0 record in James Shields' last 4 starts as an underdog. Kansas City is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-105). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30

Game 945-946: Oakland at Kansas City (8:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Lester) 15.497; Kansas City (Shields) 16.988
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-115); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-105); Over

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1

Game 947-948: San Francisco at Pittsburgh (8:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 17.148; Pittsburgh (Volquez) 15.609
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 6
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-120); Under

MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, September 30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (88 - 74) at KANSAS CITY (89 - 73) - 8:05 PM
JON LESTER (L) vs. JAMES SHIELDS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 88-74 (-16.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 19-28 (-16.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
OAKLAND is 2-11 (-8.6 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 this season.
OAKLAND is 40-41 (-8.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
OAKLAND is 4-15 (-11.9 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less this season.
OAKLAND is 10-16 (-17.8 Units) against the money line in September games this season.
OAKLAND is 86-70 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
OAKLAND is 57-47 (-9.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
OAKLAND is 61-49 (-7.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
OAKLAND is 46-40 (-12.9 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
OAKLAND is 15-24 (-10.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OAKLAND is 18-22 (-9.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
KANSAS CITY is 89-73 (+3.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 19-7 (+10.9 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 this season.
KANSAS CITY is 85-70 (+1.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
KANSAS CITY is 63-48 (+5.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 43-35 (+5.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
KANSAS CITY is 64-60 (+14.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SHIELDS is 63-38 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 25-9 (+17.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 12-3 (+8.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)
OAKLAND is 118-70 (+38.4 Units) against the money line after shutting out their opponent since 1997.
LESTER is 21-7 (+14.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less since 1997. (Team's Record)
LESTER is 41-22 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 9-16 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Tuesday over the last 2 seasons.
SHIELDS is 3-8 (-8.4 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 5-2 (+4.6 Units) against OAKLAND this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.0 Units)

JON LESTER vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
LESTER is 9-3 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 1.84 and a WHIP of 1.057.
His team's record is 9-4 (+2.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-2. (+6.2 units)

JAMES SHIELDS vs. OAKLAND since 1997
SHIELDS is 6-4 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 3.82 and a WHIP of 1.148.
His team's record is 9-6 (+1.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-9. (-4.4 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (88 - 74) at PITTSBURGH (88 - 74) - 8:05 PM
MADISON BUMGARNER (L) vs. EDINSON VOLQUEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 85-90 (-19.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 96-105 (-19.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 88-74 (+5.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 51-30 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 21-4 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Wednesday over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 51-30 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
PITTSBURGH is 65-43 (+17.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 81-64 (+15.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 357-363 (+50.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
VOLQUEZ is 48-32 (+20.6 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 88-74 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 43-38 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 18-7 (+11.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 88-74 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 58-44 (+9.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 49-38 (+9.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BUMGARNER is 13-5 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
BUMGARNER is 13-5 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
BUMGARNER is 11-2 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-2 (+2.5 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)

MADISON BUMGARNER vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
BUMGARNER is 1-3 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 3.24 and a WHIP of 1.200.
His team's record is 1-3 (-3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-0. (+4.0 units)

EDINSON VOLQUEZ vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
VOLQUEZ is 2-2 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 5.72 and a WHIP of 1.588.
His team's record is 3-8 (-5.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-5. (+0.6 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, September 30

A's @ Royals-- AL Wild Card
Oakland is 7-4 in Lester starts (3-1, 2.57 in last four). Lester is 3-0, 2.61 against the Royals this year and is 6-4, 2.11 in 11 postseason starts.

Shields is 2-1, 2.14 in his last six starts, 1-0, 3.21 in two starts vs Oakland. He is 2-4, 4.98 in six postseason starts (with Tampa Bay).

A's played lousy from August 1 on, going 22-33 since acquiring Lester, but they played in playoffs last two years, are used to games like this.

Royals haven't been in playoffs since 1985, though Shields was in playoffs for Rays in three different seasons. Kansas City won six of its last eight games.

MLB

Tuesday, September 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:07 PM
OAKLAND vs. KANSAS CITY
Oakland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Oakland's last 17 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Kansas City's last 17 games when playing Oakland
Kansas City is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

**StarDust Bum** · 09-30-2014, 04:38 PM

MLB

Tuesday, September 30

Moneyline on the move in AL Wild Card clash

The line is on the move for Tuesday's Kansas City-Oakland AL Wild Card matchup.

Sports Interaction opened the Royals as -125 home faves at 12 p.m. AST Monday, but that line dropped to -115 six hours later. There hasn't been any movement on the total for the game, as it currently sits at 6.5.

Both teams will send their aces to the mound, with Jon Lester getting the call for the A's and James Shields countering for Kansas City.

Weather forecast for A's-Royals matchup

The weather forecast for Tuesday's American League wild card game between the Kansas City Royals and Oakland A's looks fairly ideal for a playoff baseball game.

Kansas City's Kauffman Stadium will see temperatures in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies overhead. Wind will blow across the field, slightly toward the outfield, at around 8 mph.

Oddsmakers opened the Royals as -110 home favorites and a total of 6.5.

Royals 2-0 in Shields' two starts versus A's

The Kansas City Royals will send James Shields to the mound in their wild-card game versus the Oakland A's Tuesday, and he's fared quite well versus the American League West club this season.

Shields made two starts (one at Kauffman Stadium, one in Oakland) and the Royals prevailed both times. Shields earned the victory on Aug. 3 in Oakland, going eight innings, giving up four hits and two earned runs. He got the start at home on Aug. 14, but didn't factor in the decision in a 7-3 Royals win. In that game, Shields went six innings and gave up three runs on seven hits.

In his career, Shields has made 15 starts versus the A's and has a record of 6-4. He owns an ERA of 3.82 and has struck out 87 batters in his 103 2/3 innings of work.

Kershaw ends season as baseball's top money pitcher

Los Angeles Dodgers star pitcher Clayton Kershaw had a season for the ages and to top it off for bettors, he ended up as baseball's best money pitcher for 2014.

Kershaw led all pitchers with $1,582 as the Dodgers went 23-4 in games Kershaw started. He finished just $62 ahead of Baltimore Orioles starter Chris Tillman ($1,520).

The Angels' Matt Shoemaker ($1,221), Minnesota's Phil Hughes ($1,201) and Detroit's Max Scherzer ($1,193) round out the top five.

Orioles are baseball's best money team by large margin

The Baltimore Orioles, a team pegged at 81.5 wins (according to Westgate LV Superbook) at the start of the season, finished 30 games over .500 and were the best money team in baseball. And it wasn't even close.

The Orioles went 96-66 on their way to the AL East crown and finishing with $3,477, more than $1,000 better than the second best money team, the Los Angeles Angels ($2,141).

The Washington Nationals ($1,062), the Los Angeles Dodgers ($1,005) and the San Francisco Giants ($802) round out the top five.

Giants' Peavy baseball's worst money pitcher

A terrible 1-12 start to the season for Jake Peavy, probably would be a place to start as to why he finished the season as baseball's worst money pitcher.

Peavy was traded mid-season from Boston to San Francisco, but it was not enough to get him out of the starter money cellar and he finished with $-1,371.

Jeff Samardjiza was another pitcher who was traded mid-season going from the Cubs to Oakland to no avail, finishing fifth worst in money at $-1,204.

Miami's Nathan Eovaldi ($-1,353), Arizona'a Vidal Nuno ($-1,289) and Boston's Brandon Workman ($-1,243) round out the bottom five.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-30-2014, 04:38 PM

MLB

Tuesday, September 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
American League Wild Card: A's at Royals
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oakland A's at Kansas City Royals (-103, 6.5)

The Kansas City Royals are playing a postseason game for the first time in 29 years when they host the Oakland Athletics in Tuesday’s American League wild-card game. The Royals have been perennial pushovers since winning the 1985 World Series before recently emerging behind a rock-solid bullpen. Oakland, which went 10-20 to finish this season, is in the postseason for the third straight season and lost to the Detroit Tigers in the AL Division Series each of the last two years.

Jon Lester, who was acquired from the Boston Red Sox specifically for this situation, will be on the mound for the Athletics. James Shields takes the ball for Kansas City and will get the opportunity to back up his nickname of “Big Game James.” Closer Greg Holland (46 saves, 1.44 ERA) and setup man Wade Davis (9-2, 1.00) headline the Royals’ bullpen, but Oakland is strong in the back end as well, led by closer Sean Doolittle (22 saves, 89 strikeouts against just eight walks).

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Royals -110, but has adjusted to -103. The total has held at 6.5

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right field to left field at 6 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: A's (-177), Royals (-173)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Athletics LH Jon Lester (16-11, 2.46 ERA) vs. Royals RH James Shields (14-8, 3.21)

Lester went 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA in last season’s World Series for Boston and has gone 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA in 11 starts since Oakland acquired him from the Red Sox. He was 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA against the Royals this season – two of the wins came with Oakland – and has career marks of 9-3 and 1.84 in 13 career starts against Kansas City. Lester went 3-2 with a 2.00 ERA in five September starts and his postseason numbers line up this way: 6-4 and 2.11 in 13 career appearances (11 starts).

Shields was 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA in two starts against Oakland this season and is 6-4 with a 3.82 ERA in 15 career outings against the Athletics. He went 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in five September starts. Shields went 2-4 with a 4.98 ERA in six postseason starts with the Tampa Bay Rays before being dealt to the Royals.

TRENDS:

* Under is 12-4-1 in the last 17 meetings.
* Athletics are 1-4 in the last five meetings.
* Athletics are 4-0 in Lesters last four starts vs. American League Central.
* Under is 4-1-1 in Shields' last six starts overall.

CONSENSUS: 54 percent of wagers on Consensus are backing the Royals.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-30-2014, 04:39 PM

MLB

Tuesday, September 30

A's now very slim favorite in AL Wild Card

The Oakland A's have been bet to very slim favorites for the American League Wild Card game Tuesday night in Kansas City.

The Royals opened as -110 favorites and have been bet down to -103, while the A's are now up to -105.

The A's send Jon Lester to the hill to face off against the Royals' James Shields.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-30-2014, 04:40 PM

MLB

Tuesday, September 30

Lester clobbering Royals this season, career

Jon Lester will take to the mound for the Oakland Athletics Tuesday and there is no other team he would rather see than the Kansas City Royals. The leftie holds a career 9-3 record with a 1.84 ERA against the Royals.

This season showed more of Lester's dominance, going 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA versus Kansas City.

The A's are currently slight -105 favorites.

Shields less than stellar in postseason

The Kansas City Royals will send James Shields to the mound in hopes of furthering their trip into October, but the rightie has never been a consistent postseason pitcher.

Shields is sporting a 2-4 record with a 4.98 ERA in his six postseason starts, all with Tampa Bay. Rarely has 'Big Game James' pitched deep into the game, with only two appearances seeing him make it through the sixth inning.

The Royals are currently -103 facing Oakland in their American League Wild Card game.

Postseason games trending under for Athletics

The Oakland Athletics have made the postseason the past two seasons, eliminated in the ALDS by the Tigers both years. Despite early ousting, the team has done well for the total bettor going 3-6-1 over/under in that span.

The A's have averaged a mere 2.6 runs per game, while surrendering 3.4 runs per game.

Oakland will travel to Kansas City with the total currently at 6.5.

A's haven't won deciding postseason game since 1973

The Oakland A's visit the Kansas City Royals Tuesday night in the winner-take-all American League Wild Card Game and that is a scenario which hasn't panned out well for the Athletics.

Oakland has lost six consecutive postseason games in winner-take-all scenarios, according to ESPN Stats & Info. The last time they won a deciding game was way back in Game 7 of the 1973 World Series.

The A's are a very slight -105 favorite to buck the trend and advance to the ALDS.

Royals easily topping low totals

The Kansas City Royals have been easily catching books off guard. In the last five games that the Royals have seen a total less than 7.0, the game has gone over four times and usually easily.

Kansas City and their opponents have averaged 7.4 runs per game, but that number jumps to 8.5 if you exclude the lone under.

The Royals and Athletics current total is 6.5.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-30-2014, 04:41 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Tuesday, September 30

Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals, 8:05 ET
Lester: OAKLAND 118-70 after shutting out their opponent
Shields: 3-8 TSR in home night games

Oakland: 29-15 UNDER on the road with a money line of -100 to -125
Kansas City: 14-5 UNDER (+8.0 Units) at home when the total is 7 or less

TSR = Team Start Record

Announcement

The Bum's 2014 Major League Baseball playoff schedule - Trends News -Best Bets !

The Bum's 2014 Major League Baseball playoff schedule - Trends News -Best Bets !

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment