ODE TO RWALL-put your favorite capping secrets here !!

[rwall]

Bill,
It makes great sense. I have to tell you , and I'm probably missing out on some great races, but I haven't been following or handicapping any polytrack races at all.
What I read recently in a Beyer article (wash post) is that the jocks don't seem to know how to handle the surface yet and are slowing the races down, until late.
Do you like the racing on this surface? and Do you approach it differently from a 'capping standpoint? I handicap turf differently then dirt and was figuring the polytrack races should be 'capped the same....

[scottya]

Rwall-
I have much respect for you now (not that I didn't before). Most guys would have just told me that I am wrong and that there way is better. I don't have the time to explain now, I will come back later though.

[rwall]

Rwall-
I have much respect for you now (not that I didn't before). Most guys would have just told me that I am wrong and that there way is better. I don't have the time to explain now, I will come back later though.

Thanks Scotty...
As I get older I enjoy talking horses almost as much as talking about my daughters. And I am looking foward to it.
Seeya

[BillMill71]

Yeah it was last week from Wash Post, he made some great points, but Keeneland to me seems to be the biggest difference. We have yet to see how the poly will be out west where speed is king.

Most folks I have spoke with and the way I have looked at it is that Poly is very much like Turf capping (for me). For example Keeneland. Stay away from the early speed Q from 6-8, and hit the horses that may have smaller Q ratings, but show strong Late Pace. Don't get caught up in it too much though because THEY ALL seem to be running slower early fractions, so the best horse is still the best horse.

What are some of your thoughts on Churchill's bias though?

[rwall]

What are some of your thoughts on Churchill's bias though?

Bill,
I couldn't tell you. I've recently been spending alot of time looking at the Florida tracks (I live 20 minutes from Gulfstream and CRC). Now that Gulfstream is closed and Calder is open, I've been printing up Race charts and looking at trying to put together a Horse Watch list. Last year I was able to find some nice prices.
I love CRC. Sick I know. If you listen closely at the track you can hear them barking. But to me it's an old time feel. I hated being at Gulfstream now that all the slots are in and the renovations are done.
Give me a few days and I will look into the charts and get back with you.
It's my O.C.D. and I TRULY ENJOY IT!

[rwall]

What are some of your thoughts on Churchill's bias though?

Bill,
I'm no expert, don't even consider myself good. But looking at the last 3 days of charts from Churchill. Horses seem to be advancing best when pressing the pace and going 4 wide out of final turn (routes and sprints). Speed doesn't seem to be holding up. Rail my be slow. The #1 horses when being ridden by the top jocks are getting their rides off the rail early.

Let me know what you think. I do value your opinion.

[WayneChung]

Bill,
I'm no expert, don't even consider myself good. But looking at the last 3 days of charts from Churchill. Horses seem to be advancing best when pressing the pace and going 4 wide out of final turn (routes and sprints). Speed doesn't seem to be holding up. Rail my be slow. The #1 horses when being ridden by the top jocks are getting their rides off the rail early.

Let me know what you think. I do value your opinion.

WILDBILL- agree 100 percent about the early speed bias on the dirt at church,the front speed over the years usually melts down late there,unless the horse is way the best,i like a horse that can rate kindly midpack and then close strong-my early feel on the turf is playing fair !! ps-BUT BEWARE WITH ALL THE GROOMING FOR THE DERBY-SOMETIMES THE SPEED HOLDS BETTER ON DERBY DAY !!

[rwall]

Here's an old angle or system (whichever you prefer)

Play on a beaten favorite that finished out of the money or was beaten by 5 lengths and it comes back (no layoff horses) in the same class or lower.

[WayneChung]

SEEMED LIKE THE DIRT WAS PLAYING PRETTY FAIR AT CHURCHILL FOR WED.MAY 2-speed holding on the six furlong and shorter races but not as well on the mile and ups !! ps-like bill said-the good jocks getting off the 1-hole quickly,could be a problem with the big fields on derby day !!

[rwall]

I don't play many angles, except maybe when in Vegas and playing a bunch of tracks on simulcast.

I like to play a system a that is a bit similar....

Play on any place horse that lost by 4-5 lengths but beat the show horse by 5 or more.

I don't consider the horse if they aree making a surface switch, or track conditions are different. Also horse must be in same class or lower.