ODE TO RWALL-put your favorite capping secrets here !!

[WayneChung]

RWALL-i like to look at everyone's handicapping angles-there was a trainer from florida who would ship in to churchill about three horse's the week of the derby-it was usually the wed,thurs,or friday before the derby-always at least one of these beauties would win-usually at about 50 to 1,have not seen his name in the last four or five years and its one of those names i would have to see in the program to remember it,but everyone has little secrets like this that sometimes pay huge... ps-guys we started this discussion in my saturday thread

[WayneChung]

quote from rwall-"as i have said i before, that horses are my favorite sport to handicap and wager on. Unfortunately as a result of my O.C.D. I read a shitload of useless handicapping books and articles.

I think it would be useful if I periodically posted some Angles and techniques that maybe some could use to handicap on their own. I would also hope some of the usual suspects in this forum would post some of their own. It's a great way to learn, especially if you don't know squat about the horses.

I think alot of people would enjoy betting the ponies but they just don't know how to handicap them.



Beyer 2-point method
Simply put you take the average of the horses last two Beyer Speed Ratings and bet the one with at least 2 points higher than any other horse.
- the book says the angle works best with higher priced claimers, allowance or stakes horses. This makes sense because these types of horses are more consistent then cheap claimers or maidens (never won)." //// PS-RWALL BROTHER-I TOO LIKE THE BEYER METHOD BUT WITH THE POLYTRACK HAVE TOO ADD IN CAN THE HORSE PERFORM ON THE SURFACE AND DOES HE HAVE A GOOD CLOSING GEAR...

[rwall]

RWALL-i like to look at everyone's handicapping angles-there was a trainer from florida who would ship in to churchill about three horse's the week of the derby-it was usually the wed,thurs,or friday before the derby-always at least one of these beauties would win-usually at about 50 to 1,have not seen his name in the last four or five years and its one of those names i would have to see in the program to remember it,but everyone has little secrets like this that sometimes pay huge... ps-guys we started this discussion in my saturday thread

I have been finding success in Sprints using what they call ability times...

Take the 2 furlong time and subtract it from the 4 furlong time. Make adjustments of 1/5 of a second for evry length gained or lost. + for lost lengths and - for gained lengths. Best time gets the play.
Usually w/p for me. or use the he horses in exotics.

This seems to work best when the horse is dropping in class.

[longnex]

I look at the color of the horse. Then I look at the horses names and pick the horse with the funniest name. It usually works.

[WayneChung]

I look at the color of the horse. Then I look at the horses names and pick the horse with the funniest name. It usually works.

LONGNEX-I KNOW YOU HAVE SOME GOOD ONES-HELP US OUT HERE BRO !!

[longnex]

I have been finding success in Sprints using what they call ability times...

Take the 2 furlong time and subtract it from the 4 furlong time. Make adjustments of 1/5 of a second for evry length gained or lost. + for lost lengths and - for gained lengths. Best time gets the play.
Usually w/p for me. or use the he horses in exotics.

This seems to work best when the horse is dropping in class.

I usually dont bet sprints or quarter horses. I usually bet WPS and exactas. I double my show bet usually. For example 10-10-20 or 25-25-50. That way all I need is the horse to finish 3rd and I usually break even. If it finishes 1st or 2nd I usually win money.

[WayneChung]

with turf babies-i have luck with breeding from "lemon drop kid,unbridled,theatrical,and giant's causeway"...

[WayneChung]

I THINK THAT GUYS NAME WAS "DOC.HARTHILL" that use to ship those bombs in derby week-i think he has retired !!

[rwall]

I THINK THAT GUYS NAME WAS "DOC.HARTHILL" that use to ship those bombs in derby week-i think he has retired !!

yES HE HAS...

[rwall]

The best handicapping tool I've found to determine pace and the probable leader of the race @ 4 furlongs or 6 furlongs (depending on the race length Sprint or Route) is Quirin Speed Points....

It is too lengthy for me to describe, but here is a good article explaining the fundementals.


http://www.ffreview.com/horse/speedpoints.htm

[jcindaville]

If a horse takes a shit on the track right before the race, i take that as a good sign to bet on that horse. I figure i get a horse who now is 2 lbs lighter

[scottya]

I have been finding success in Sprints using what they call ability times...

Take the 2 furlong time and subtract it from the 4 furlong time. Make adjustments of 1/5 of a second for evry length gained or lost. + for lost lengths and - for gained lengths. Best time gets the play.
Usually w/p for me. or use the he horses in exotics.

This seems to work best when the horse is dropping in class.

If you are talking about the ability time that Andy B came up with, that is not the formula. Close, but defeats the point actually. The correct formula is to add the 3rd and 4th furlong time to the first four furlong time. Great for 2&3 year olds in a sprint.

[rwall]

If you are talking about the ability time that Andy B came up with, that is not the formula. Close, but defeats the point actually. The correct formula is to add the 3rd and 4th furlong time to the first four furlong time. Great for 2&3 year olds in a sprint.

No Sir, it has nothing to do with Beyer.
I believe the the man's name is William Scott that came up with "Ability Times". The book if I recall correctly is Investing at the race track, and it probably came out 10 years before Beyer on Speed.
Some more recent publishings call the same technique "turn Times". (don't quote me but I believe James Quinn calls it turn time).
What I believe you are referring to is Beyers approach to handicapping turf races and he was discussing sustained pace, and comparing how Sartin followers would disect these times.

What I am referring to is a running line i.e. :22 2/5 :45 4/5
the fractions for the race show that the leader traveled from the 1/4 pole to the half pole (2 furlong to the 4 furlong) in :22 2/5. Now let's say he gained 1 length on the leader in that time his ability time (or turn time if you like ) is :22 1/5.
You then compare that time to the other horses time (using the same formula) to find the play.

Thanks for the input.
BOL

[rwall]

If you are talking about the ability time that Andy B came up with, that is not the formula. Close, but defeats the point actually. The correct formula is to add the 3rd and 4th furlong time to the first four furlong time. Great for 2&3 year olds in a sprint.

I'm reading this over again and maybe it's something I don't know about. Because it's not what I thought when I reread it.

Could you explain.
Like I said earlier I love to learn new things about this game.

[BillMill71]

The best handicapping tool I've found to determine pace and the probable leader of the race @ 4 furlongs or 6 furlongs (depending on the race length Sprint or Route) is Quirin Speed Points....

It is too lengthy for me to describe, but here is a good article explaining the fundementals.


http://www.ffreview.com/horse/speedpoints.htm

I like The Quirin Speed points as well and utilize in race from 6-9 furlongs. But I also seem to rely on it more on the Polytrack.

For Aqueduct it has some good results, I will show the horse number with the highest QS and it's results:

Aq Card 4/28

Race 1 #2 QS 8 WON
Race 2 #1 QS 7 SHOW
Race 3 #5 QS 6 Out
Race 4 #2B QS 6 (two others as well) WON
Race 5 #2 QS 5 Out
Race 6 #5 and #7 QS 5 Both Out
Race 7 #8 QS 8 Place
Race 8 #4 QS 8 Out
Race 9 #7 QS 6 (others higher scratched) WON

Now this is not a bad day at some of the prices hit. Take not only the highest QS, but compare against what the pace should be against other horse QS values, mix in some late pace numbers if you have them, look at the other key stones of handicapping and I feel it is an excellent tool as well. Starting using it myself in January, but haven't had much time to fine tune it into my handicapping.

Good Luck