football fades

[hans65]

hey guys, i was wondering how good you did with fades during the football seasons last year. can someone either krunch or ripp give me an answer. anyone else please as well. i was thiking of following for the footbal seasons. record or money won/lost with $100 bettor would be great. thanks guys

[Ripple]

u follow the football fades u will win big believe me

[hans65]

i know rip,


but how did you do last year. i think this is a great idea. i love it. thanks man

[Hoosier Daddy]

Don't think we tracked them....tell you this much, before the Fade Idea came into play, I played mostly service consensus plays last year and lost my ass.

[Ripple]

spark,trotter and i did them ourselves during the latter part of football,,i think we did it the last 7 weeks,,we won 5 weeks big and the 2 weeks we lost it was some beans..We also did baskets at that time too...after we realised how great the fades were,spark suggested we post them..Trotter was actually doing the tallys for a long time on this site,,Than we all just said lets start fading the services.and one thing lead to another and we stated to win big time,,We didnt want to post at first incase it suxed,,and plus we were trying week after week to find the best system.and The FADES are the best system..this yr we will have a ledger with every service and there record,,we will post there record on tuesdays after the week is over.Also ill have a record just for the GOM..GOY GOW..if u want to just fade there goy;s you will do very well..thanks and good luck and get the bankroll ready,,We will be in hawaii doing the fades in nov.dec.& jan..with all our winnings..WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOO

[Watchtower76]

When you say "services" don't you usually have too pay for them

Is there anyway we can help with sending some money or are you getting free service picks????

Cuz by the looks of it, you guys have like 10-20 or more, that has too cost some $$$$

[Ripple]

on a sunday sometimes there between 3-40 services on one side and sometime 40-60 services on that entire game....thanks for offering money but i think were okay,,theres alot of guys out there that come thru for us regarding getting the service plays and reports..

[Okie Bob]

Rip,

Appreciate all the work you guys do! Will you be posting the fades on this forum?

[MasterShakes]

Even if we assume that all services are bad and only select 50/50 like any person could do at random, this does not mean theoretically that the fades should work. I would really like to know the reasoning behind these. If the reasoning is that "services don't win any better than your average joe," that's not good enough. All services should be expected to pick 50/50 AT WORST. In fact, everybody on earth should be expected to pick 50/50 at worst, lifetime, if we assume that the lines are relatively correct (which we should, given the length of this industry's history). Even if they are 50/50, which is the worst case scenario, tht doesn't give us enough reason to go against them. It doesn't give us enough to overcome the vig. Why? Because if at worst, they're expected to be wrong 50% of the time, then at best, we're exected to be right 50% of the time, and we're in a worse position than they are.

Everybody seems to believe that taking these fades has more significance with more sevices on one side. Why? I'd seriously like to have an honest, theoretical answer about why you think this will work.

I know that your argument up to this point has been that "they do work... we've won money." Well, it hasn't even been a year yet. Anybody can win over a year. My dad is pretty much a square bettor and he hit over 60% in the NBA one year betting almost every single night. It doesn't mean somebody should follow him.

Don't get me wrong. That doesn't make me think that this system doesn't have value. I just think you're not giving it as much value as it should have, and you're likely not using it correctly.

Let's assume a couple things before I go on.

1) Sportsbooks have been at this for a long time, and have access to just as much information or more than your typical "professional" handicapper or tout in setting their lines. People who are experts at setting at least approximately correct lines do this their whole lives for sportsbooks. I think we can assume that almost any posted line is at least approximately correct and can't be bet for profit on either side.

2) Some touts actually are professional gamblers themselves and are not just salesmen, or they at least, or perhaps inaddition to, have other professionals associated with them. This means that there's a good chance that they have bet the game themselves even before they gave out the pick, moving the line significantly from its opening spot before their customers get it.

3) The influx of money from their customers betting the game also moves the line. I saw the Cardinals game move something like 15 cents the other day when you guys put out a fade on them.

Therefore, I think the true value in this is getting to a line that is now incorrect in the other direction as a result of all the senseless pounding on a pick that may be no better than 50/50 against the original line. This can be best done though line shopping. I'm using 8 to 10 sportsbooks this season in order to best do that. I strongly recommend that you do the same. Even if you have a bankroll of a couple thousand and bet no more than $100 a game, that doesn't mean that you couldn't still spread it out amongst 5 books.

A combination of the top books available should yield you some great lines.

Conclusion: The real value of these fades is in knowing where the line is going to eventually be wrong and then shopping for the most off line.

Tell me why I'm wrong.

[Hoosier Daddy]

Master - you'd be surprised how many services hit below 45% of their games.

[MasterShakes]

Master - you'd be surprised how many services hit below 45% of their games.

It doesn't matter. It's their expectation that matters. If their expectation is no less than 50/50 against the existing line (the expectation of throwing darts for picks is 50/50 long term), then it is incorrect to go against them with the existing line, as then our expectation can't be better than 50/50.

If you want to rely completely on results in isolated instances, then find that capper who's having a 55 or 60% season and go with him for the rest of your life.

[Goldsheet]

watchtower -

they don't pay for 50 services to get the tally, they get the picks free

[trumadskills]

shakes what does there expectation of season precentage record mater to services? they are there to make money. period. in football if "tout A" goes 1-5 in week 5 tha average person who uses touts will jump on them cause they think they might be "due". if "tout B" goes 5-1 in week 5 tha average person who uses touts will jump on them cause they think they are on fire an will ride tha train.

its all about money to these touts , they can give 2 shits about a expectation of season, as long as money flows thats all they care about. there are some good services that take pride in what they do an put out a good product, then there many touts out there that jus dont care aslong as u keep buyin they monthly/season packages.

how tha fades are broken down is jus like basically superbowl weekend lets say if u ask 100 people who win will an whats tha final score if 3/4 or 75 people say pats will win by 10 or more or so. is it that easy for tha average joe to pick against tha spread? if it was that easy vegas wouldnt still be around, no one would take any action. thats jus how fadin tha services works, if theres alot of services all on one side of tha line how can they all be right more times than wrong?

ncaa hoops an nba fades ATS worked great this year in regular season hittin over 62%. wit more people who bet nfl, more touts come out tha woodwork who are jus lookin for money should be a great nfl season.

[Watchtower76]

watchtower -
"they don't pay for 50 services to get the tally, they get the picks free"

I figured that, but i have tried like 10 different services "Paid services" and i know they are just crap. Free picks are fine, i was just saying that if they were paying for there locks i would help out.

I've thought of paying for 3-5 services at $250 each and go against them all year..i know i would make major cash, expecially in the NFL...

Services are CRAP

Reed

[drsho01]

I like fading the services for the obvious reason.

I wonder about the services that are honest and do their best to put out a good product in relation to the money sucking scum bags services. If the legit services are all on one side of a game (or a majority of them) I wonder what the percentage would be. Then compare that to the scum suckers.

i don't know. All I know is that I am gonna fade all day and all night long !!!!!!!!!!!!