football fades

[MasterShakes]

shakes what does there expectation of season precentage record mater to services? they are there to make money. period. in football if "tout A" goes 1-5 in week 5 tha average person who uses touts will jump on them cause they think they might be "due". if "tout B" goes 5-1 in week 5 tha average person who uses touts will jump on them cause they think they are on fire an will ride tha train.

its all about money to these touts , they can give 2 shits about a expectation of season, as long as money flows thats all they care about. there are some good services that take pride in what they do an put out a good product, then there many touts out there that jus dont care aslong as u keep buyin they monthly/season packages.

how tha fades are broken down is jus like basically superbowl weekend lets say if u ask 100 people who win will an whats tha final score if 3/4 or 75 people say pats will win by 10 or more or so. is it that easy for tha average joe to pick against tha spread? if it was that easy vegas wouldnt still be around, no one would take any action. thats jus how fadin tha services works, if theres alot of services all on one side of tha line how can they all be right more times than wrong?

ncaa hoops an nba fades ATS worked great this year in regular season hittin over 62%. wit more people who bet nfl, more touts come out tha woodwork who are jus lookin for money should be a great nfl season.

1) I'm not denying anything you just said about touts at all. I think they are scumbag snake oil salesmen, and I think that their profession should be just as illegal as selling drugs, or at the very least monitored and regulated. I'm typically not a big government type guy, but people are being absolutely taken by these guys. You won't hear me arguing for the touts - ever.

2) I'm not buying that 62% record until I hear it from Ripple. I think I read that they weren't documented.

3) Your argument seems to be that the line is correct. Therefore, if the general public or touts are lopsided, they can't be right, so we should bet against them. BUT THE LINE IS CORRECT, SO YOU CAN'T BET AGAINST A CORRECT LINE - unless you're getting the bet at even money, you will lose money in the long run. It's a mathematical fact, and as you said, it is the reason vegas and the offshore books are still in business.

4) Krunch himself has just said that the baseball fades STOPPED WORKING, and he said this after a losing streak was already documented. Also, when you did win at baseball this season, it was by a somewhat slim margin. This makes me think that you guys were on a pretty good run for a while.

5) I'll make this point once again and see if anybody thinks that my thoughts could improve this system. I WOULD REALLY LIKE KRUNCH OR RIPPLE TO REPLY TO THIS PART OF THE POST. Let us first assume that touts are no better than 50/50 gamblers. That's not very good. Anybody can hit 50/50. My dog can hit 50/50. However, if they give their opinions in a lopsided fashion on one particular game, and have people who bet big at a variety of books betting with them, they will move the line. Let's also assume that the sportsbook's line when posted was at least very close to being correct. Now, when that line makes that significant move after being jacked up by people who don't know better, that is when you look for the absolute BEST line available in the other direction. Wait right up until game time if necessary.

I think that with access to the information that you guys apparently have about what services are releasing, you are misusing it. You want to know where the line movement is coming from and why, and then bet against irrational line movement.

Also, for anybody who has argued with me, nobody is arguing that we are betting against incorrect lines. In fact, one of you argued that we're betting against correct lines. Mathematically and logically, this cannot possibly be a winning strategy in the long run.

The way you guys are currently using this information makes this no better than a roulette, craps or bacarrat system.

Edit: Not to stick it to you, but Washington +3.5 lost quite badly tonight, making your current football record 1-1.

[trumadskills]

shakes i know how tha ncaa/nba did cause i played alot of em an if u look back in post here rip has tha record in old post. he also posted tha final overall record a month or so ago when i asked him again. he posted 79-48 62.20% at normal juice 10% thats +26.20 units. u can believe it or not its what rip said an posted before. i guess he needs to come in here an post it again

mlb fades havent worked well i think cause ur pickin an outright winner, no spread. im sure if touts posted only RL plays +1.5 an -1.5 fades would work well.

i think these are pretty acurate mlb records through july

April 36-33-1 +9.1 units
May 60-74 +6.21 units
June 45-47-1 +3.99 units
July 30-32 +3.38 units

wit ncaa/nba at 26.20 units overall for tha year fadin service plays a 100 a unit player would be up $4888.

i dont know if u dont think any kind of system of strategy can be profitable or if everyone on earth has to hit 50% on average for tha course of they life, but i jus dont get what ur tryin to say. i think ur lookin at it way too much. tha way u talk about linemoves this an that i think some touta are able to move a line jus cause they "say" they are on that side, put that pick out move tha line a point or so an take tha other side. i dont know tha way u seem to doubt how these are doin u must have a great year goin urself, why even bother to try these plays?

national sports monitor

go there an look under CBB overall

u will see that only 24 services made any kinda profit, thats out of 112 services posted there. less than 1/4th, 21.42% of tha services that posted theyre plays there made a profit. fuck 3 of em alone lost over 100 units. 4 more lost 50 + units. now look at nba overall 37 services made any kinda profit, thats out of 114. only 32.45% of tha services made any kinda profit. that means 67.55% of all of them lost money. 3 services lost 50 + units, another 10 lost 25+ units.

Edit: Not to stick it to you, but Washington +3.5 lost quite badly tonight, making your current football record 1-1.

heh sure doesnt seem ur not tryin to stick it to anyone postin or playin fades....

this is preseason no one knows what will happen. im not touchin any fades till season starts. keep ur eyes open..... if u care 9/8 is for real an 9/11 is when it will take off.

[MasterShakes]

I want to make it clear that I plan to be on these things this season. I just plan to play it the most optimal way possible (catching line moves in your favor is a huge part of sports gambling, and if you're not line shopping, you are losing out on a ton of good money).

I do tend to think through things a lot, and I take that as a compliment, rather than a criticism.

Please try to take this the best way you possibly can: A few things that you said in your post lead me to believe that you know little to nothing about the math behind sports betting. I am giving you genuinely sincere advice here: Find a copy of Stanford Wong's Sharp Sports Betting or David Sklansky's Getting The Best Of It. These guys can teach you about this better than I could. If you ever want to be a winning sports gambler in the long run, you need to know this kind of stuff.

I am not going to argue with you on how this system has done so far. That's fine. But there is the fact that Krunch stopped dead on posting baseball fades, because he doesn't think they're working. He also said that if he sees that they are winning again, he will start posting them again. Frankly, this sounds like the words of a person trying to track a roulette wheel to see when a trend on betting black appears.

This is the last time I am going to point this out, and this is possibly the most important part of what I am trying to say here: You say that these services are not showing a profit. I AGREE COMPLETELY. I am well aware of The Sports Monitor, and there are few if any services that can consistently show a profit. HOWEVER, in one breath you are using the word "profit" and in another breath, you are using the word "losing". There is a huge difference here. Why? Because of the house advantage. The reason they are not showing a profit is that they are playing against the house advantage, just like we are. It's not because they are somehow losing more than anyone could be expected to lose in the long run. Individual services have up years and down years. There is no way to predict which ones will win or lose. If you look at any sites that track picks (there are several of them), you will see a distribution of winners and losers that looks much like I would expect any bookie's list of clients winners and losers to look. Why isn't anybody showing a profit? Because of the 5% house advantage.

Also, let's say that there are 50 services on one side of a game and 2 services on the other. A huge fade play right? Why does it matter what these people think at all? Why is this a play? Nothing at all is being said about whether the line itself is wrong. If the line isn't wrong, it can't possibly be a correct play on either side.

I would seriously love it if Ripple or Krunch would try to defend their system. I honestly want to believe that it works. I want to hear from them with a logical and mathematical reason for why this system will work in the long run. If they can't defend their system logically, there's no reason to play it, unless you use it to find line value. I really want to hear more of an explanation than "we've been winning."

Here's how I would use this system:

1) Get yourself at least 5 online sportsbooks. I plan to use at least 8 this season.

2) Write down the OPENING lines for every game, both college and pro, every single week. These are best found at either CRIS or Pinnacle from what I've read.

3) If you have any faith in your straight up handicapping skill, make at least an opinion on every single game on the entire slate.

4) Wait for the fades to come out every week. When the fade plays are in agreement with your plays, wait for the line to move away from what it was as an opening line (which it may have already done), and in your favor. Wait right up until kickoff and shop this line at all of your sportsbooks, betting the game in the best way possible.

That's all I have to say on this until I hear from Krunch or Ripple.

[trumadskills]

Please try to take this the best way you possibly can: A few things that you said in your post lead me to believe that you know little to nothing about the math behind sports betting

point those out to me then professor.

u bring up tha point that tha house has an advantage which of course they do like i said before if vegas didnt have an advantage no one would take any action. later u ask

Also, let's say that there are 50 services on one side of a game and 2 services on the other. A huge fade play right? Why does it matter what these people think at all?

if tha house has an advantage, how can over tha course of a season when 50 people are on one side to 2 be tha winnin side more than loosin?

do u or have u ever bet? all it sounds like to me is u read some touts book on how to win an u took a math class an a probability/law of average class at ur local community college.

[Ripple]

mastershakes..we have our record for baskets..as i stated yesterday we didnt keep a official record till around feb..we were actually hitting 71% for a while in baskets,till the nba started to stink the place up,,as i said yesterday, the fades started with only 3 guys for awhile,,it was around the last 7 weeks ans trotter,spark and myself won alot of money and we only lost 2 weeks and that was small beans,,ill pull up the record for,,Please [play at ur own risk,,You can fade the fades play the fades or dont even look at them and play ur own games,,We do very well at these and also have alot of fun,,The bases suxed from day 1,not many services do bases and the pitching been terrible,,i stop doing them in may and krunch continued to bust his chops and still try them..i did bases 2 days this week and we won a very small units,,anyhow ill pull up the record and post it,,To me THE FADES WORK AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN 2 FOOTBALL LEAGUES AND 1 BASKETBALL LEAGUE....FROM SEPT - APRIL YOU SHOPULD WIN MONEY DOING AND FOLLOWING THE FADES,,,

[Ripple]

mastershakes
your right it hasnt been a yr yet,,but since last nov we been doing this and it works for us,,

and we dont use most free plays,maybe 5-10%,as most good services (honest_) ended up using one of there free plays for a premium play

also we pay for most of the plays we get,,we have a bunch of people get there pays and forward them onto us..we chip in for a report,,this costs us time and money but thats our choice and we have np doing it,,its fun 99% of the time..
also our record is in here go to page 8 or 9 its right there im getting it now

[Ripple]

here our record since we started to post them and keep a accurate record,,this is upto and including the championship game where we kicked ass

we also had faded ats huge goy one night they had houston we took charlotte +11 and we won the game outright and a bunch of us had the money line +590 and it was a fridaynight and we had tons of fun on here that night,,these are just someof the highlights we had,,here is the fade record

the nba started to hurt us alittle at the end:

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#1 04-04-2005, 10:46 AM
Ripple
Registered User Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: With My Avatar
Posts: 7,996

Rips Fades for Monday

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Great day/night yesterday..3 ~0 on the fades ..plus other games we had..its sad to see college baskets finally end.Baseball is here,and its look great for the fades so far...

Guys for the 5 weeks that we been posting everyday & keeping track , were hitting at 64%..not the best ,,we want nothing less than 71 % but we;ll take it for now..the nba killed are percentage but its okay..have no fear the fades are here..


Guys here we go for tonight were playing big for the big game we have 2 majors ,,good luck


North carolina -1.5 for the first ~half.....major WINNER EASY WINNER AGAIN ....
North Carolina -2 for the game ...majors WINNER never in doubt yeahhhhhhhhhhhh

Here we go guys for a early fade
Mil Brewers +118 ..major 1:35pm EASY WINNER YEAH BABYYYY

2 ~ 0 SO FAR IN MAJOR FADES FOR BASEBALL
YANKEES ,,SUNDAY,,,,BREW CREW MONDAY


Final tally was 42 ~ 31 services against north carolina
FINAL Tally so far 9 ~ 0 services against us on mil brew crew

77 ~ 47 overall record..not to shabby

March 28th, ,14 ~ 12. with a huge money line dog +11,,+590 winning outright.....54 %
..
March 21, 9~6 majors...3~7 opinions..48 %
March 14th, ,......13 ~ 12 ~2....52 %
March 7th, ........12 ~ 5...71%
Feb 28th,...... 26 ~ 5,,,including a 3 team special dead ~head parlay ..easy winner ..83%
__________________
if you see her.tell her i say hello...Bobby Dylan...(off blood on the tracks)

[TRUCKIN]

I want to make it clear that I plan to be on these things this season. I just plan to play it the most optimal way possible (catching line moves in your favor is a huge part of sports gambling, and if you're not line shopping, you are losing out on a ton of good money).

I do tend to think through things a lot, and I take that as a compliment, rather than a criticism.

Please try to take this the best way you possibly can: A few things that you said in your post lead me to believe that you know little to nothing about the math behind sports betting. I am giving you genuinely sincere advice here: Find a copy of Stanford Wong's Sharp Sports Betting or David Sklansky's Getting The Best Of It. These guys can teach you about this better than I could. If you ever want to be a winning sports gambler in the long run, you need to know this kind of stuff.

I am not going to argue with you on how this system has done so far. That's fine. But there is the fact that Krunch stopped dead on posting baseball fades, because he doesn't think they're working. He also said that if he sees that they are winning again, he will start posting them again. Frankly, this sounds like the words of a person trying to track a roulette wheel to see when a trend on betting black appears.

This is the last time I am going to point this out, and this is possibly the most important part of what I am trying to say here: You say that these services are not showing a profit. I AGREE COMPLETELY. I am well aware of The Sports Monitor, and there are few if any services that can consistently show a profit. HOWEVER, in one breath you are using the word "profit" and in another breath, you are using the word "losing". There is a huge difference here. Why? Because of the house advantage. The reason they are not showing a profit is that they are playing against the house advantage, just like we are. It's not because they are somehow losing more than anyone could be expected to lose in the long run. Individual services have up years and down years. There is no way to predict which ones will win or lose. If you look at any sites that track picks (there are several of them), you will see a distribution of winners and losers that looks much like I would expect any bookie's list of clients winners and losers to look. Why isn't anybody showing a profit? Because of the 5% house advantage.

Also, let's say that there are 50 services on one side of a game and 2 services on the other. A huge fade play right? Why does it matter what these people think at all? Why is this a play? Nothing at all is being said about whether the line itself is wrong. If the line isn't wrong, it can't possibly be a correct play on either side.

I would seriously love it if Ripple or Krunch would try to defend their system. I honestly want to believe that it works. I want to hear from them with a logical and mathematical reason for why this system will work in the long run. If they can't defend their system logically, there's no reason to play it, unless you use it to find line value. I really want to hear more of an explanation than "we've been winning."

Here's how I would use this system:

1) Get yourself at least 5 online sportsbooks. I plan to use at least 8 this season.

2) Write down the OPENING lines for every game, both college and pro, every single week. These are best found at either CRIS or Pinnacle from what I've read.

3) If you have any faith in your straight up handicapping skill, make at least an opinion on every single game on the entire slate.

4) Wait for the fades to come out every week. When the fade plays are in agreement with your plays, wait for the line to move away from what it was as an opening line (which it may have already done), and in your favor. Wait right up until kickoff and shop this line at all of your sportsbooks, betting the game in the best way possible.

That's all I have to say on this until I hear from Krunch or Ripple.

first of all who are you to come on here and ask for krunch and ripple to defend there system.
they dont have to defend a thing this is a forum that people post there plays
if you dont like them dont play them
this is not a debate

you cant compare football and basketball fades to baseball fades
because in baseball there is no point spread.
the reason the fades have not been that successful in bases is because your just picking a winner
they are probabily 50% but up money because 90% of the plays are dogs
the point spread equals about 15%+ more winners in hoops & foots
thats all i really need to say you can get as technical as you want and act like a rocket scientist but that doesnt mean your a winner
follow the plays you will see

truckin

[Steelerfan04]

lol true

[griffey_mojo]

Stick it to 'em truckin.

[MasterShakes]

I'm really trying my best not to come across as an ass here. I wanted to hear from Krunch and Ripple, because these are the guys who developed the system from what I've read on here. Maybe I'm wrong.

In that post you posted, Rip, you said that you wanted nothing less than 71%. I'll tell you what - you give me 55% or better for the lifetime of this system, and I will be the happiest guy on this forum.

I'm not trying to say that I expect the baseball plays to work in a straight W/L record. I'm completely aware of how baseball bets are taken differently. I'll stand by my opinion from previous posts - my best guess, on baseball in particular, is that you're getting to bet into soft lines on undervalued underdogs. Touts like to pick favorites in other sports too, so it's probably a similar situation there.

To everybody: I think it's great that you're winning. I really want you to keep winning, because I'm going to be on these picks this football season too. I'll gladly post my thoughts on these plays as the season goes on.

I also stand by what I've said in previous posts: The reason you're winning isn't that touts are wrong a majority of the time when they play together. Nobody is wrong a majority of the time over a whole lifetime. The reason you are winning is that you are getting undervalued underdogs, and you are probably playing into extremely soft lines.

In many cases, touts are working for the sportsbooks that they recommend more than they are working for their customers. If the sportsbooks know there is going to be an influx in action on a particular side of a particular pick, they will jack up the line. I don't expect you to provide this data, as it would probably be a lot of trouble, but I'd be interested to see how many times just a point or two made the difference in your winnings this past basketball season. From what I've read, if you can get a line that is two points off consistently, you will be a big winner.

You've found a great way to take advantage of line moves and undervalued teams, and you should be proud of that. Keep up the good work.

[spreadman]

[MB17]

Im must say that Shakes has a damn good point about the line movement. I actually said the same thing a while back. I can't remember how many times when I followed a services game of the year, by the time I played it with my local, the line was 1, 2 and sometimes even 3 points off. Needless to say, I'd be pissed the next day because the service's website would be celebrating a winning selection, while my personal play would have lost by 1 point.

In fact, my local knows when all of the services are on a game, and the line always moves. The main reason I'm excited is because this year they will be thinking that I'm going to go with that inflated line, when I'm really going to be going against it. Bastards.

[stoney]

""""Even if we assume that all services are bad and only select 50/50 like any person could do at random, this does not mean theoretically that the fades should work. I would really like to know the reasoning behind these. If the reasoning is that "services don't win any better than your average joe," that's not good enough. All services should be expected to pick 50/50 AT WORST. In fact, everybody on earth should be expected to pick 50/50 at worst, lifetime, if we assume that the lines are relatively correct (which we should, given the length of this industry's history). Even if they are 50/50, which is the worst case scenario, tht doesn't give us enough reason to go against them. It doesn't give us enough to overcome the vig. Why? Because if at worst, they're expected to be wrong 50% of the time, then at best, we're exected to be right 50% of the time, and we're in a worse position than they are.""""
This was your quote
Shakes,

Where do you come up with 50%??? I assume that you never have to pay your man then? Because when you lose 2 games in the early you win 2 at night right???? Betting a football game is not a 50-50 proposition. And that is why your argument is totally useless. I am going to digress and use a very easy explaination. Have you ever played roulette???? Playing red and black isn't a 50-50 proposition??? You would say it was right?? Its not though. Not when you have a green 0 and another green 00. The two green 0's give the edge to the house(vegas) and the same goes for the point spread, that is the edge vegas has. Ever look at the past spins on a roulette wheel? Ive seen it come up 8 or 9 times in a row red, before black hit again. If 2 people bet the same side in a football game time after time but the 2nd person gets a line 1/2 pt higher everytime, the first person can very well hit 50% of the his games but don't you think that 1/2 point will deviate the second player, he may hit more or less 50%. Go flip a coin 20 times I guarantee it will not come up 10 heads and ten tails every 20 times you flip it.
You are using the laws of statistics and probability on the lowest level when you say betting games is a 50-50 shot. This type of statistics is used as an example to 8 or 9 years olds to explain something when they first start doing math. If your time frame is to the nth degree or infinity with the 50/50 you may have a case then but who has that much time.

To put it easiest for you. VEGAS does not LOSE. The whole reasoning behind Fading the services is the whole reason vegas is alive and well and prospering. Its called being a CONTRARIAN! If you think a team can't lose and you bet every last penny in your pocket, vegas will take that bet and your team will lose and vegas will win more times than you. Fading service plays is the same thing. All the services love a play and we go the other way. In other words we are on VEgas' side.We need the team vegas needs to win. If you are on the same side as vegas, which is usually the opposite team everyone/ every service loves you will win period. Hope this clarifies it.

PS IMO I think shakes lost a little money and now he wants an explanation on what went wrong with the fade system. Isn't that right now shakes? Stick with it you will make $$$$. Thanks for the hard work Rip, Truck etc. Let's bury our books!!

[MasterShakes]

Actually, I've made one play with your fade system and one only. It was in baseball earlier this week on the Cardinals. You guys were playing it at +131, according to the post. I line shopped and got it inflated at +146. Thanks for the winner on that one.

Stoney, you clearly misunderstand the most basic mathematics of sports betting. Hitting 50/50 betting basketball or football IS NOT BREAKING EVEN - IT IS LOSING. And this is how Vegas wins. It's because when you lose, you're paying more than they pay when you win. This is a slightly different concept in baseball, but the advantage is still there in that sport.

If you hit 50/50 lifetime, you will be doing exactly what Vegas expects you to do. What you are expected to do is hit 50/50 and pay them their 5% house advantage on every bet (just like an American roulette wheel).

What you're trying to claim is that Vegas somehow, magically I suppose, has a line that has you making a less than 50/50 bet no matter which side you take.

Let's say you make 1000 bets over the course of the year in basketball and football. You bet $100 on each game. What Vegas (or the offshore, or your local, or whatever...) expects to happen is that you will win 500 bets and win $50,000. However, you will also lose 500 bets, but this time, instead of losing back only that $50,000, you are losing back $55,000, because every time you bet, you're laying $110 to win $100. This is the 5% advantage. When you bet that $100,000 over the course of that season, you're expected to lose 5% of it - $5,000.

Unless you can win 52.4% of the time or more, you will lose at sports betting. It's that simple.

The advice that I am trying to give is to use line shopping to at least mitigate, if not erase this house advantage. In baseball, on a typical game, you're looking at -130 on one team, while you're looking at +120 on the other, at one sportsbook. However, if you line shop at 5-10 books, you're going to find better lines. It's inevitable that you will find better lines. If you take the best of these books, you might find the favorite at -126 and the dog at +125. This means that you will be facing a VERY small house advantage when you take the best from all of these books. Now, you won't be able to shop this well every time, but you should at least be able to chop the edge in half by shopping.

Add to all of this the fact that a lot of the favorites you are betting against will have moneylines that are wrongly inflated due to the fact that services that don't really know what the hell they're doing have pounded these games for no apparent good reason. This is why I think this system is winning.

Edited to add: The concept of the American roulette wheel is slightly different, but 0 and 00 give the house it's 5%+ edge. It's a house edge built in in a different way from sports betting.