Thoughts on this Play?

[mavskidd02]

Sportsbook has double result props for night games and some of the bigger afternoon games. Basically can be who will win/tie 1H, and who will win game. Tie 1h/ Favorite win is normally 14:1. Tie 1H / UD win is normally 16:1.

I've been playing both sides of this for the past few SNF games in hopes any tie at half nets me a nice 7:1 score.

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What are the odds a play like this pays off in the long run?

Spreads at or around 3 end the 1H in a tie more or less than 1 out of 8?

[weston555]

For one, I would bet that a tie at halftime doesn't happen nearly 1/8 times. I just looked at the last 3 days and that's 27 games without a tie at half (just skimmed through but I'm pretty sure). Even though most of those didn't have a 3-point spread, I would assume that if it happens often enough, 27 games would give one or two ties at half. Another thing is that even if it did happen closer to 1/8 times, you'd eventually take a huuuge hit on a bad losing streak. Just my opinion...but yeah I wouldn't get suckered into those kind of bets. Normally, anything beyond betting the spread is in the books favor, especially with bets like this that have a high payout. Even though the odds are stacked against them, people are going to be appealed to small bet/huge payout and the book is going to win.

[mavskidd02]

For one, I would bet that a tie at halftime doesn't happen nearly 1/8 times. I just looked at the last 3 days and that's 27 games without a tie at half (just skimmed through but I'm pretty sure). Even though most of those didn't have a 3-point spread, I would assume that if it happens often enough, 27 games would give one or two ties at half. Another thing is that even if it did happen closer to 1/8 times, you'd eventually take a huuuge hit on a bad losing streak. Just my opinion...but yeah I wouldn't get suckered into those kind of bets. Normally, anything beyond betting the spread is in the books favor, especially with bets like this that have a high payout. Even though the odds are stacked against them, people are going to be appealed to small bet/huge payout and the book is going to win.

Agreed, most of those props are a sucker's bet. And this one probably is as well. Nice to hit it tonight, hopefully pull it in tomorrow as well. But I should quit while I'm ahead.

[weston555]

Agreed, most of those props are a sucker's bet. And this one probably is as well. Nice to hit it tonight, hopefully pull it in tomorrow as well. But I should quit while I'm ahead.

Fuck, I'm an idiot..for some reason I was thinking you were talking about NBA games..but still I would guess that it is well in favor of the book as always