MLB Betting: 2011 season fast approaching

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MLB Team Preview: Florida Marlins



FLORIDA MARLINS

2010 Statistics:
Record: 80-82 (.494)
Units: -1.7
Offense Runs per Game: 4.4 (15th in majors)
Defense Runs per Game: 4.4 (17th in majors)
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win National League: 20/1
Odds to Win World Series: 40/1
Over/Under Regular Season Wins: 82.5 wins
(Odds according to Sportsbook.com)

The Marlins have an exciting young offense with huge upside led by SS HANLEY RAMIREZ, who is much happier with Edwin Rodriguez as his manager than he was with Fredi Gonzalez at the helm. 2B OMAR INFANTE is one of the new faces in town, replacing Dan Uggla after having finished third in the NL in hitting last year (.321 BA). With Cameron Maybin gone, CHRIS COGHLAN moves from left to center, and the early favorite for the starting 3B job is prospect MATT DOMINGUEZ, who hasn’t played above Double-A. On the hill, JAVIER VAZQUEZ escaped New York in the offseason and returns to the National League, which he dominated in 2008 when he was with Atlanta (15 wins, 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP). He’ll follow ace JOSH JOHNSON and power-pitching RICKY NOLASCO in a promising rotation.

Other MLB Season Previews:
AL East
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
AL Central
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins

AL West
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers

NL East
Atlanta Braves
March 17 – New York Mets
March 18 – Philadelphia Phillies
March 19 – Washington Nationals

NL Central
March 20 – Chicago Cubs
March 21 – Cincinnati Reds
March 22 – Houston Astros
March 23 – Milwaukee Brewers
March 24 – Pittsburgh Pirates
March 25 – St. Louis Cardinals

NL West
March 26 – Arizona Diamondbacks
March 27 – Colorado Rockies
March 28 – Los Angeles Dodgers
March 29 – San Diego Padres
March 30 – San Francisco Giants

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MLB Betting: 2011 Washington Nationals preview

Washington’s first goal is to simply escape the NL East basement.
The Washington Nationals are a team headed in the right direction, but the only problem is they are trying to drive a bus to the top of the NL East while Philadelphia is tooling around town in a Ferrari with Atlanta and Florida chasing the Phillies in a pair of souped-up Chevys.

The Nationals finished the 2010 season with an overall record of 69-93 after winning just 59 games in both 2008 and 2009. Their ‘over/under’ in the win columns entering this season is 72½, which at first seems to be a gift for the ‘over’ given the amount of young talent and optimism on this team.

Upon closer inspection this number is right on the money as the reality is this team still has a way to go before it will be competitive on a regular basis.

The Nationals have a couple of solid bats in players such as Ryan Zimmerman and Ian Desmond, but the loss of Adam Dunn, who had 38 home runs and 103 RBI in 2010, will be hard to replace. Washington did pull off one of the biggest offseason acquisitions in the league by signing free-agent outfielder Jayson Werth from Philadelphia to a lucrative long-term contract as well as adding Adam LaRoche from Arizona to help fill the void. These two players, along with Zimmerman will definitely give this team some legitimate power.

It still remains to be seen how much the overall lineup can improve upon last season’s .250 team batting average, tied for 11th in the National League, and 655 runs scored, the third worst in the league.

Washington’s starting rotation will most likely feature right-hander Livan Hernandez as the ace of the staff. Hernandez went 10-12 with a 3.66 ERA in 33 starts last season, but unfortunately his better days are behind him as it is doubtful he will ever recapture his form of the early 2000’s.

Left-hander John Lannan could be a solid No.2 if he continues to improve. Last season he went 8-8 in 25 starts but had an ERA of 4.65. The Nationals brought in Tom Gorzelanny to help shore up the back end of the rotation, but he remains a stop-gap measure at best until they can find a younger arm to replace him.

The bullpen remains average at best with Drew Storen currently penciled in as the team’s closer, if not to start the season then at least eventually. Manager Jim Riggleman has mentioned he would use a committee to sew games up in the early part of the season, meaning Tyler Clippard and Todd Coffey could be in line for some saves.

Washington does have one of the top prospects in the league in Bryce Harper, who was the No.1 overall pick in the 2010 draft, but it is highly doubtful he will see any time in the majors this season. The Nationals are also probably a year away from getting pitching phenom Stephen Strasburg back from Tommy John surgery.

These two players paint a very bright future for this team down the road, but for now the Nats’ will have to make do with what they have.

Washington is plus 8000 to win the World Series and plus 4000 in win the NL Pennant. The long odds continue all the way down to the division level where it is plus 2800 to win the NL East. There is little or no value in any of these as the Nationals’ main goal this season will be to try and get out of the basement in the East for the first time since 2007.

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MLB Betting: 2011 Baltimore Orioles

The O’s went 34-23 in 2010 after Buck Showalter took over as manager.
The Baltimore Orioles could be one of the more interesting teams in MLB betting action this year. Under Manager Buck Showalter, the O's went 34-23 last season and played great ball during the final two months of the 2010 campaign.

Now, there are a ton of new faces coming in to try to help out, and this could be one of the surprising teams in baseball.

The big thing that was missing in this lineup was a truly big bat. Derrek Lee won't likely have the same sort of productivity that he did a few seasons ago with the Chicago Cubs, but this is still a man that is capable of hitting 25 homers and driving in 100 runs.

The O's also took a flier out on Vladimir Guerrero when seemingly no one else wanted to take that chance on the veteran. There's a chance that Vladdy will be a Hall of Famer. He hit 29 home runs last season and drove in 115 runs for the Texas Rangers. No, Guerrero can't play the field anymore, but if he can produce that type of offense, he'll be a fine pickup for Baltimore.

Mark Reynolds might be striking out 200-225 times on the season (and goodness knows if it'll end up being more than that), but he'll also hit 30 homers and pick up 75-80 RBIs as well.

It's clear that the power portion of this lineup is now set with the veterans that came into the mix. The question is whether the other pieces in this lineup are really good enough. Adam Jones is an up and comer for sure after batting .284 last season, while JJ Hardy, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis and Luke Scott really should round out a solid lineup.

Keep an eye on 24-year-old catcher Matt Wieters. He only batted .249 last season, but if Wieters can get that up in the .260 range or so, he might really be able to make a huge impact on this lineup.

The question is the pitching. Many compared this team to the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays, but these pitchers just don't have the same type of talent that those arms did on that Rays team.

Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz and Bradley Bergesen are three at the front of this rotation. All three have a heck of a lot of potential, but none of them are absolutely ready to step up at the front of any rotation.

The bullpen really isn't all that great either. Koji Uehara doesn't have the feel of a closer to him quite yet, and though Kevin Gregg can do the job, he really hasn't proven that he can close consistently.

The other tremendous problem that the Orioles have is the obvious: They play in the AL East. We already know that the Boston Red Sox have one of the most stacked teams in the entire league, while the New York Yankees are still the New York Yankees. The question is whether Baltimore will be able to compete with the Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays.

If Baltimore can challenge the 80-win mark this year, it will be a success. However, if the Orioles end up pulling out more than that, we wouldn't be overly surprised.

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MLB Betting: 2011 Philadelphia Phillies preview

Philadelphia’s opponents will see a steady diet of aces on the mound.
Philadelphia acquired pitcher Cliff Lee from Cleveland midway through the 2009 season in an effort to try and win a second straight World Championship. After coming up short on their goal, the Phillies decided to trade Lee to Seattle in light of the fact they had just signed Toronto ace Roy Halladay to anchor the starting rotation.

Even though the 2010 season was one of Halladay’s best ever, Philadelphia was eliminated by San Francisco in the National League Championship Series in six games. Realizing that they should have never let Lee go in the first place, the Phillies re-signed him as a free agent from Texas this offseason.

The end result could be one of the best starting rotations ever assembled in the history of Major League Baseball. Lee rejoins a staff that not only has Halladay, last season’s NL Cy Young winner, but Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels as well. Oswalt came over last July in a deal with Houston and Hamels is a home-grown product from the Phillies farm system who was the MVP of the 2008 World Series.

Joe Blanton, who has been with the team since 2008, will round out the rotation as the fifth starter.

Given the dominating potential of this deadly combination of arms, it is little wonder that Philadelphia as the prohibitive favorite to win the NL East at minus 345 (Atlanta is second at plus 350). The Phils are also chalk to win the National League Pennant at plus 150 and the early odds-on favorite to win the World Series at plus 300.

San Francisco is the second favorite to win the NL at plus 650 and Boston is the second favorite to win a world title at plus 450.

The biggest question marks for this team are on the offensive side of the ball. The Phillies lost outfielder Jayson Werth, who had 27 home runs and 85 RBI in 2010, to Washington as a free agent and have some serious concern with the health of second baseman Chase Utley’s right knee, which has kept him out of action for much of the spring.

There are also lingering injury concerns with Placido Polanco and closer Brad Lidge, but both are expected to be ready to go Opening Say. If Utley’s situation worsens, look for Philadelphia to plug the hole in the infield with either Wilson Valdez or possibly Luis Castillo, who was recently signed after being released by the Mets last week.

The loss of Utley would hurt, but Philadelphia’s lineup is still loaded with a ton of star power with players such as Ryan Howard, Jimmie Rollins, Shane Victorino and Raul Ibañez. A young prospect to watch this season is Dominic Brown, who is slated to take over Werth’s position in the outfield. He has also struggled with some nagging injuries in spring training, but could be a real plus for this team if he continues to develop.

Philadelphia's 'over/under’ on the season win total is a league-high 96½ games. The Phillies won 97 games last season, which was the most in the majors, but could be hard pressed to top this number in 2011.

All current injuries aside, the high expectations that have been put on this team could actually work against it over the course of a 162-game season, making the ‘under’ play extremely attractive. The Phillies are still the class of the National League and should return to the World Series in 2011, but similar to the Miami Heat in the NBA, they will remain under the looking glass all season long.

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MLB Betting: 2011 New York Mets preview


If you thought the New York Mets were bad last year going 79-83 and finishing 18 games behind Philadelphia in the National League East, wait until this season.

The Mets look even worse.

New York is 100/1 to win the World Series, according to odds at Bookmaker.com which also puts the Mets’ ‘over/under’ win total at 76.

Bad contracts, unreliable stars and injuries all factor in the Mets’ being 25/1 to win the NL East. The Phillies are a strong favorite to win the division again at minus 310.

The Mets don’t lack star power being a big-market team with Johan Santana, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Jason Bay.

Problem is southpaw Santana probably is out until mid-season following surgery on his left arm leaving the starting pitching in a weakened state without a true No. 1, Beltran is having more problems with his knees and Reyes can’t be counted on due to his frequent physical aliments.

Bay put up good power numbers in Pittsburgh and Boston, but was a bust last year in his first season with the Mets hitting just six homers and driving in 47 runs missing the second half of the season due to a concussion.

The Mets ranked 24th in runs scored at 4.0 per game.

So, New York really needs Bay to bounce back with the 33-year-old Beltran a long shot to be 100 percent by opening day. Beltran has averaged just 72 games played during the past two seasons because of knee troubles. Bay smacked 36 homers only two years ago.

Angel Pagan was one of the few Mets to step up leading the regulars in batting last year at .290, stealing 37 bases and playing a stellar center field.

Third baseman Wright and first baseman Ike Davis, a slick fielder, smacked 29 and 19 homers, respectively, last season. They also struck out a combined 299 times.

Sandy Alderson, the Mets’ new general manager, bit the bullet and unloaded second baseman Luis Castillo and erratic southpaw Oliver Perez.

The Mets are hoping Josh Thole, who doesn’t have power but has a good on-base percentage, is the answer at catcher.

Even if Thole comes through, new Mets manager Terry Collins faces huge question marks at second base and in right field along with a weak bench.

There are plenty of holes with the pitching staff, too with Santana on the shelf. Santana’s strikeout rate of 6.5 per nine innings was his lowest since 2001 before a torn capsule in his pitching shoulder halted his season in September.

The starting rotation appears to be Mike Pelfrey, knuckelballer R.A. Dickey, Jonathan Niese, Chris Young and Chris Capuano. It’s doubtful they can reach last season’s 3.73 team ERA, seventh-lowest in the majors. The ‘under’ was 87-69-6 in Mets games last year.

Pelfrey has been a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter in two of the last three years. But he’s not a big strikeout pitcher and is miscast as a No. 1 starter. Dickey posted a remarkable team-leading 2.84 ERA in 2010. That came out of nowhere, however, as Dickey had been nothing but an American League journeyman. National League hitters might be better prepared against him this season.

Niese has potential, but gets hurt often while Young and Capuano are trying for comeback seasons after long injury rehabs. Young hasn’t been a double-digit winner since 2006 when he was with San Diego while Capuano hasn’t been fully healthy in five seasons.

Francisco Rodriguez is a top-notch closer. Keep in mind, though, the Mets tried to void the remaining guarantee on Rodriguez’s massive contract after he was arrested for assaulting his children’s grandfather at Citi Field tearing a ligament in his pitching thumb. The Mets weren’t able to do that, but they could save $17.5 million on his contract for next season by keeping him from reaching 55 appearances, the figure needed to trigger that amount.

If the Mets fall out of contention, they likely would be looking to deal Rodriguez and shortstop Reyes during the trade deadline, which could negatively impact their team win total.

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MLB Betting: 2011 New York Yankees preview

The New York Yankees are hardly ever cast in the underdog role. Yet, that is exactly where they find themselves entering the 2011 baseball campaign. However, future book bettors shouldn’t get too excited. The Bronx Bombers won’t return big bucks.

Pete Korner, who makes and distributes the betting line to the majority of Nevada sports books as owner of the Sports Club, has installed the Yankees as 6/1 choices to capture the World Series. Only the Philadelphia Phillies (3/1) have lower odds.

Joe Girardi’s Yanks won 95 games last season, but all indications are they won’t reach that plateau this time around. Sports Club has established New York’s ‘over/under’ season win total at 90 ½.

New York is also an 8/5 second-choice to capture its own division, right behind the Boston Red Sox at 2/3.

Most prognosticators concentrate on players that teams have in camp when trying to predict the outcome of an upcoming season. But this is the New York Yankees, a franchise that has a history of “buying” pennants.

That didn’t happen this offseason, as the Yanks constantly had to sit back and watch other teams sign prize free agents. In fact, two of those prizes (Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez) went to the hated Boston Red Sox in their own division.

The Yanks also had their hearts set on signing Cliff Lee to a pitching staff that was weakened when Andy Pettitte retired. However, Lee decided to sign with the Phillies.

So, the Yanks must make due with adding former Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Russell Martin to the roster. That will move longtime backstop Jorge Posada to a designated hitter role most of the time.

That leaves the pitching staff with CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA) and Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA) as the lone starters to garner a record above .500.

If the Yanks have any hopes of even capturing their own division, they must receive a comeback season from A.J. Burnett. The 34-year-old right-hander was a postseason hero in 2009, but he was an erratic mess last season en route to a 10-15 record and a bloated 5.26 ERA.

New York ranked 15th in the major’s with a team ERA of 4.06 and 21st with just 83 quality starts. The defense was a strong suit, as the club ranked third by committing just 68 errors.

New York’s bullpen is still a strength as long as Mariano Rivera can still throw his menacing cutter. The 41-year-old veteran still managed 33 saves last season to go along with a miniscule 1.80 ERA.

Offense shouldn’t be too much of a problem for the Yanks. After all, they ranked first in that category last season by averaging 5.27 runs per game. New York ranked fifth with a .267 batting average and third in home runs (201).

The schedule

A ton of home games dot New York’s early schedule, as 12 of the club’s first 15 contests will take place at Yankee Stadium. Interleague action will see the New Yorker’s play road games against the Cubs, Reds and Mets, with home outings versus the Rockies, Brewers and Mets.

The statistics

New York was 11-7 against the National League last season. The squad was 52-29 at home, 38-34 against teams in its own division, 31-27 versus southpaw starters, 20-19 in one-run games and 7-7 in extra-inning affairs.

The prediction

If pitching truly comprises 90 percent of a club’s success, the Yankees will be hard-pressed to match last season’s 95 wins. Additionally, the improvement of the Red Sox in their own division will also hurt New York’s pennant chances. However, a trip back to the playoffs as a wild card entry is certainly not out of the question.

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MLB Betting: 2011 Boston Red Sox preview

Boston Red Sox fans can officially stop complaining about the New York Yankees payroll. Owner John Henry has opened up the checkbook this offseason, helping make Boston a favorite to win its third World Series in eight years.

Oddsmakers at Bookmaker.com have the Red Sox as the second-favorite (plus 320) to win the World Series behind Philadelphia (plus 220). Their regular season win total is 95.

The AL East odds have Boston (minus 200) significantly ahead of the Yankees (plus 150) and light-years in front of Tampa Bay (plus 1000), Toronto (plus 1500) and Baltimore (plus 2500).

Boston’s payroll is second in the majors at $161 million and that’s before it signs Adrian Gonzalez to an extension at around $22 million per year (up from $4.9 million). Both sides have held off until now to avoid the luxury tax for this year. The Yankees lead MLB with a $207 million payroll, but the gap is no longer as big with the Gonzalez increase.

The Red Sox went 89-73 last year, which was only good for third in the AL East behind Tampa Bay (96-66) and the Yankees (95-67). Finishing behind the Bronx Bombers is one thing, but it’s always embarrassing to be looking up at a team like Tampa Bay with a fraction of Boston’s payroll.

General Manager Theo Epstein made two big moves over the winter, one expected and one not so much. The first bullet was acquiring first baseman Gonzalez from San Diego for prospects. That move was long rumored with Padres GM Jed Hoyer a former Sox employee and intimately familiar with the farm system.

The second move was signing free agent Carl Crawford to a seven-year, $142 million deal. Crawford is a great all-around player, but his OBP of around .355 is not usually what Boston looks for and that’s a lot of money to pay a leftfielder whose career-high in homers is just 19 (last year).

Crawford is also another lefty in a lineup that includes Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury, David Ortiz and J.D. Drew. That’s five of the top seven hitters and makes them vulnerable against great southpaws in the division like C.C. Sabathia and David Price. Having New York lefty Andy Pettitte retire (at least for now) was a good thing.

The Red Sox finished second in MLB in runs scored last year (818), down from 872 in 2009. They should easily be in the 850-900 range this year.

Brother, can you spare a dime?

While Boston looks strong offensively, the starting staff has several questions despite some expensive talent. Lefty Jon Lester (19-9, 3.25 ERA last year) is the current No. 1 at age 27. Right-hander Clay Buchholz is just 26, but he had a breakout campaign (17-7, 2.33 ERA) and looks to build from there.

The question marks come from John Lackey, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka, who all sport eight-figure salaries and who should be making some no-interest loans to Lester and Buchholz for bailing them out last year.

Lackey struggled (14-11, 4.40 ERA) last season after signing as a high-priced free agent from the Angels. He should be better this year after adjusting to the harder AL East, but he’s nothing more than a No. 3 starter.

Beckett was downright awful (6-6, 5.78 ERA) after signing a lucrative extension. Some of it was injuries and some of it was being too predictable in his pitches. Beckett is the emotional leader of the staff, but needs to revert to 2009 ace form (17-6, 3.86 ERA) to be taken seriously.

Matsuzaka went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 2008, but was constantly pitching out of jams with 94 walks. The 30-year-old Japan native still frustrates coaches by nibbling around the plate and his ERA is around 5.00 the last two years.

Veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is ready to go if any of these guys get hurt. That’s a good bet for both Beckett and Matsuzaka.

The elephant in the room in regards to the pitching is the catching situation. Jarrod Saltalamacchia is the starter, but he’s never had more than 308 at-bats in a season and guys like Beckett aren’t shy in expressing their desire to pitch to backup Jason Varitek.

The almost 39 year-old Varitek will play more than the average backup according to manager Tito Francona, but there’s pressure on Saltalamacchia to start well offensively and defensively.

New pitching coach Curt Young comes over with a great reputation from Oakland, but the scrutiny he’ll be under here will be infinity greater.

Rebuilding the bullpen

Boston’s bullpen finished with a 4.24 ERA, ranking 23rd in MLB. Closer Jonathan Papelbon wasn’t his normal self (3.90 ERA, eight blown saves) and it’s the worst kept secret in baseball that he’ll leave at year-end via free agency.

Daniel Bard is the closer-in-waiting and he pitched great in many big situations (1.93 ERA). Bobby Jenks was also signed from the White Sox and he’s another option if Papelbon implodes. Jenks is scheduled to be a seventh-inning guy.

Epstein’s philosophy for the rest of the bullpen is ‘throw stuff against the wall and see what sticks.’ Dan Wheeler is an underrated guy who migrates from Tampa Bay. Alfredo Aceves, Hideki Okajima, Rich Hill and Dennys Reyes are names for the final spots.

Betting stats and predictions

The Red Sox were 46-35 at home (minus 6.3 units). The road record was 43-38 (plus 0.3 units).

Boston struggled mightily as a favorite (minus 10.6 units), while doing much better as an underdog (plus 4.6 units).

The ‘over’ (80-75-7) had a small advantage, 42-37-2 at home and 38-38-5 away.

The pressure is sky-high for Boston as fans expect/demand another title. Crawford and Gonzalez are both coming from small markets and might have trouble adjusting to the bright lights. Throw in some questions in both the starting staff and bullpen, and Boston’s World Series odds are a bit overvalued.

Prediction: ‘under’ 95 wins.