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**StarDust Bum** · 02-08-2011, 09:11 PM

MLB Betting: Florida Marlins season preview

There is a lot to like about the Florida Marlins who are loaded with young talent. But is it enough to push them above the .500 mark they narrowly missed in 2010 and make them a contender for an NL wild card in 2011?

The cold, hard fact is the NL East is the Philadelphia Phillies' to lose. A stacked rotation gives Philly a huge upper hand over the rest of the division, meaning the rest of the division is essentially playing for a wild card slot, either that or hoping that at least two of the Phils' Big 4 in the rotation succumbs to injury.

A drop from 87 wins in 2009 to 80 last season led to some major changes to the team. Fredi Gonzalez was jettisoned from the dugout's top step midseason, with the interim label removed from Edwin Rodriguez' title after leading the team to a 46-46 record following his installment as manager.

The club has replaced half of its starting infield from 2010, trading second baseman Dan Uggla to the Braves and losing third sacker Jorge Cantu to free agency. There will also be new faces in left, center and behind the plate, as well as in the rotation and bullpen.

Change is not always a bad thing, but expecting so many new pieces to come together right away is probably asking too much.

New kids on the block

Shortstop Hanley Ramirez might be the only recognizable name and face among the position players for casual fans. He turned 27 during the offseason and is coming off a fourth consecutive season hitting at least .300. But he was also in the doghouse a lot for former manager Gonzalez over a perceived lack of effort.

Ramirez knows his first baseman very well, with Gaby Sanchez putting up solid rookie numbers in 151 games (19 HR, .273 AVG, 85 RBI).

Omar Infante, over from Atlanta in the Uggla deal, is penciled in at second, and should provide the Fish with a solid stick, though one that lacks much power or speed on the bases. Third base is a real mystery, and the reason why Infante is not the set second baseman quite yet. The club will give minor leaguer Matt Dominguez the chance to win the job at the hot corner this spring. If he can't cut it, then it could go to Infante, Wes Helms or Emilio Bonifacio. If Infante is the man most of the time, then Bonifacio will be at second.

Florida started last season with an outfield trio of Chris Coghlan in left, Cameron Maybin in center and Cody Ross in right. None of that trio will be in those positions this Opening Day. Coghlan is expected to take over in center, slugger Mike Stanton will be in right and Logan Morrison is in left.

Coghlan's shift to center will be on-the-job-training during the spring. Stanton comes off a 22-HR rookie campaign, and the 20-year-old will now be asked to contribute extra pop in the lineup hole left by Uggla. Morrison is a gap-hitter that should develop power, but even without the long ball in his repertoire remains an on-base machine.

The Marlins inked John Buck to take over behind the plate and also provide some pop following his 20-HR season for the Blue Jays in 2010.

Johnson anchors pitching staff

The National League ERA leader in 2010 with a 2.30 mark, Josh Johnson is set as the ace of the rotation. An imposing figure on the hill at 6-foot-7, 250 pounds, Florida will need at least 32 starts from his right arm if there's any hope for a postseason berth.

Behind Johnson are four more right-handers, including veteran Javier Vazquez who returns to the NL after a disastrous season in the Yankees rotation. Vazquez knows the NL East well having spent his early years with the old Expos and a superb 2009 campaign with the Braves when he won 15 games and sported a career-best 2.87 ERA.

Ricky Nolasco, Chris Volstad and the oft-injured Anibal Sanchez round out the rotation heading into camp. Sanchez actually shook his injury trouble in 2010 to lead the Marlins with 32 starts and 195 innings.

Leo Nuñez returns as the clubs closer, despite some shaky stretches last season. Clay Hensley is back as his primary setup arm following his outstanding '10 that included a 2.16 ERA, 77 strikeouts in 75 frames and a 1.10 WHIP. Brian Sanches has proven to be a solid 7th-8th inning arm as well, and the club picked up three new relievers in separate deals, adding Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica from the Padres in the Maybin trade and left-hander Mike Dunn as another piece in return from Atlanta for Uggla.

2011 schedule includes AL West interleague matchups

One thing I always alert MLB futures bettors on is to look at the schedules of the teams they're planning to wager. Florida's 2011 slate will include an extra trip to the West Coast for interleague games against Oakland, plus they battle AL Champions Texas in the Lone Star State.

The Marlins' remaining interleague schedule includes a home-&-home series with the Rays, plus three-game home matchups with the Angels and Mariners.

Outside of their 72 games against NL East rivals, the Marlins will play the NL Central 40 times and the NL West 32 times. Florida will host the Cubs for two games while playing four at Wrigley Field.

A team in transition

Florida is in a transition season both on its roster and on the diamond as the Marlins prepare to move from Sun Life/Landshark/Pro Player/Joe Robbie Stadium to their new digs in 2012 when the team will also switch to being known as the Miami Marlins. The as-yet-to-be-named new ballpark in the Little Havana area of Miami will be nearly half the size as the current stadium (roughly 37,000 seats compared to 68,000) and include a retractable roof.

Season win totals are still under wraps, with the only futures out right now listing Florida 40/1 (at Bodog) and 45/1 (at TheGreek.com) to win the World Series.

My simulation runs the past couple of weeks had the Marlins averaging 79.4 wins this season based on their current roster. I see them a little higher than that, assuming the starting rotation can stay relatively healthy. Put me down for Florida to finish with 81-82 wins, battling the Mets for third in the NL East.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-10-2011, 12:09 AM

MLB Betting: Tampa Bay Rays season preview

On October 12, 2010, there was a gigantic thud that could be heard from time zones away. At Tropicana Field, a 5-1 loss to the Texas Rangers officially, once and potentially for all, slammed shut the window of opportunity to win a World Series for the Tampa Bay Rays.

Sure, you can talk all about how this is a team that is still stacked with veterans, a fantastic pitching staff and some of the best prospects in the game, but even this Tampa Bay fan realizes that the days of winning 90 games and competing for a playoff spot are gone.

Of course, the rise of the Rays was meteoric to say the least. It was only four years ago that the team won 66 games and finished in the gutter in the AL East, a place where they made home since the day the franchise was incepted. So though the proverbial window of opportunity might be shut, even winning 75 games this year would be a marked improvement from those awful days that only ended in 2007.

Oh, don't get me wrong. Tampa Bay still probably has one of the seven or eight best teams in Major League Baseball. Bodog lists the Rays 20/1 to win the 2011 World Series, tied with the Twins and White Sox for the fourth-best odds in the AL. Boston (5/1), New York (6/1) and Texas (18/1) rank 1-2-3 among AL teams to win the World Series.

The problem is, after years of picking on the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox, it is becoming incredibly apparently that, without a miracle, the Goliath's have finally towered over the David's definitively.

The starting pitching staff underachieved for the Rays all year last year. David Price was amazing, winning 19 games, and probably getting robbed out of the Cy Young Award in the American League. But beyond him, four men with the ability to win 20+ games finished with a combined record of 52-43 and a combined ERA near 4.50.

Gone is Matt Garza, who clearly was the second best pitcher on the trade. He was a salary casualty, as he was essentially traded for a box of baseballs to the Chicago Cubs. Someone had to go though, to make room for Jeremy Hellickson who is ready to go after a year of being known as one of the top prospects in all of baseball.

The rest of the starters might be intact, but thanks to slashing salary, the bullpen has been totally demolished. Joaquin Benoit and Rafael Soriano, two men which were brought into Tampa Bay last year off of the scrap heap, both had sub-2.00 ERAs in one of the best bullpens in the game, but both left for big bucks in the offseason. The fact that Soriano is now wearing pinstripes is going to be known as the second biggest travesty of the year for the Rays.

Somehow, names like Kyle Farnsworth, Jake McGee, Mike Ekstrom and Joel Peralta just don't scare us the same way that Soriano, Grant Balfour, Benoit and Dan Wheeler did.

Mentioning the second biggest travesty for the Rays wasn't nearly as difficult as the biggest travesty. Seeing Carl Crawford, a lifer in the Tampa Bay organization, playing for the Red Sox, where he will inevitably bat .600 and score 30 runs in 19 games against the Rays this year, is just sickening to even type, let alone see.

However, this is the reality of what the constraints of money did to Tampa Bay in the offseason. Crawford left via free agency. So did Carlos Pena. Jason Bartlett was traded. In their places are Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez. Gee, thanks. The last time that the Rays made a veteran signing like this to come in and help the team out, they ended up begging someone to take Pat Burrell off of their hands before finally just cutting him... and then watching him win a ring for the San Francisco Giants. So yes, from now on, I'm deeming Manny Ramirez to be Pat Burrell v2.0.

Sure, there is plenty to be intrigued at this year for the Rays. Reid Brignac and Sean Johnson don't have anything else clogging up time in the lineup on a regular basis. Desmond Jennings, a man that we have been hearing about in the farm system for years is going to probably end up starting 100-110 games. Evan Longoria has a chance to build on his three year career which already has him hitting 82 home runs and driving in 302 RBIs.

However, when push came to shove, it wasn't the play of the team on the field, but the performance of the fans in the stands that really made the difference here for the Rays. Even though the team has now made the playoffs twice in the last three seasons, fans just didn't show up.

As a result, ownership had to step in and slash some payroll, and though it wasn't this current payroll that was that devastating, it was the idea of trying to re-sign Crawford or to do so with Pena, Bartlett and the likes in the upcoming season or two that caused GM Andrew Friedman to pull the plug on so many of the mainstays that built this team.

It was only two years ago that manager Joe Maddon coined the term "9=8." It was the birth of a team that simply outworked the big boys on a nightly basis. Can Maddon put together some magic this year? Maybe. But when push really comes to shove, in a division where 100 wins might still leave you in third place, there's just no hope for the Tampa Bay Rays.

The window has already been slammed shut.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-12-2011, 10:44 AM

MLB Betting: Atlanta Braves season preview

Their four-year playoff absence over, the Atlanta Braves entered the postseason last October with high hopes to send longtime manager Bobby Cox out a winner. Those hopes were quickly dashed when Atlanta met the San Francisco Giants in the NLDS and was sent back to Peach City in four games by the eventual World Series Champions.

Atlanta may have made a quick exit to deny Cox his last hurrah, but he still certainly went out a winner. A veteran of 29 seasons as an MLB manager with over 2,500 wins, one World Series title, five NL Pennants and 16 trips to the postseason, the absence of Cox in the dugout this season is by far the biggest change the team will have to deal with.

The man charged with making the tough transition is Fredi Gonzalez, canned mid-2010 by the Florida Marlins. Gonzalez brought in his bench coach with the Fish, Carlos Tosca, but did retain pitching coach Roger McDowell plus base coaches Terry Pendleton and Brian Snitker from Cox's staff. The good news here is Gonzalez wasn't brought in to manage his way but to manage the Braves' way, so unless he just completely alienates himself with the players there shouldn't be much trouble trying to fill a legend's cleats.

Gonzalez also will have another holdover from the Cox Era with Chipper Jones trying to give it one more go after missing most of the last half of '10 with his left knee injury and surgery. Jones will make one last stand in his 18th season, assuming his soon-to-be 39-year-old body allows.

Late injuries took their toll

The Braves would've given the Giants at least a better challenge in the NLDS had it not been for the injuries. Jones' August injury was part of it, but Cox still had supersub Omar Infante to help out then. Martin Prado's absence in the late season and playoffs was the real clincher. That forced the Braves to go with longtime minor leaguer Brooks Conrad at second and the results were, well, ugly.

Jones and Prado could start a new injury domino fall this year as well that would end up severely testing the club's depth. Going in, Jones is at third and Prado is in left for the bulk of the projections. Infante is gone, so Conrad is still part of the picture in the infield though I think it's a blue moon or two at least before you see him play second for the Braves.

The infield that started during the NLDS has but one returning in a starting role, shortstop Alex Gonzalez. To his left at second is offseason prize Dan Uggla. And to Uggla's left is highly touted rookie Freddie Freeman. Prado is the backup just about everywhere on the dirt outside of catcher where Brian McCann is entrenched with a capable backup in David Ross.

Jason Heyward is in right after a solid rookie campaign that was well-publicized. How the 21-year-old handles the pressure on him to be even better in '11 is another paramount condition on this team's playoff repeat goal. But even if he slacks a bit, of bigger importance is the defense and offense the club gets from it center field position. Nate McLouth has to produce at both the plate and with the glove, or this offense has a big hole, and that's something that a lineup lacking depth to begin with cannot afford.

Rotation intact, changes in the 'pen

Atlanta's starting rotation returns pretty much as it was for 2010 with Tim Hudson leading the group by default as the staff ace. He, Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe combined to take the hill to begin 101 of Braves regular season games a year ago -- Atlanta 57-44 in those games -- and Hanson could very well gain control of the ace title this year and for several more years to come.

Jair Jurrjens is the fourth arm after ending the season with an injury, and the new kid trying to survive as the rotation's only left-hander is Mike Minor. Atlanta's alternatives if he doesn't pan out are Brandon Beachy and the well-traveled Rodrigo Lopez, leaving the team wide open for pitfall if one of it's top-4 in the order go down.

Change is afoot in the bullpen. Yet another key blow to the Braves late last season on the health front was losing closer Billy Wagner. He's toast according to all reports and holding off his official retirement announcement for the near future. Even if he can return somehow, Craig Kimbrel will be closing things out of the gate for the Braves. Atlanta has both lefty Jonny Venters and righty Peter Moylan returning along with Eric O'Flaherty and possibly either Beachy or Rodrigo Lopez the long arm if spring training goes right.

Beat the Phillies or repeat as the wild card

That's the demand on the Braves as far as futures odds go. Atlanta opened with a season win total of 86½ a year ago, the 'over' juiced, and easily beat that with a 91-71 record. Win totals this time should be in the 89+ area, and my simulations averaged 86 wins with a high of 92 and a low of 80.

I like this team, I really do. The potential is there for this rotation to stand toe-to-toe with Philadelphia's. Still, my pick is 87 wins during the regular season and I'm not sure that's going to be enough to get into October.

The current numbers at Bodog have the Braves 22/1 to win the World Series, tied with the Rockies among NL clubs behind the Phils (13/4) and Giants (14/1).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-14-2011, 02:55 PM

MLB Betting: St. Louis Cardinals season preview

It’s easy to see why the St. Louis Cardinals have the shortest odds to win the World Series at 20/1 of any National Central League Division team, according to numbers listed at Bodog.com.

Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter are at the top of the rotation. Albert Pujols is at first base. Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman are in the outfield. Ryan Franklin is the closer. Yadier Molina is the best defensive catcher in the National League.

Yet something has been missing from the Cardinals. They won an underachieving 86 games last season, out of the race essentially by mid-August.

In wagering terms, the Cardinals were off 20 units in 2010. That ranked them fourth from the bottom behind only money-draining Pittsburgh, Arizona and Seattle.

There may not have been a more disappointing MLB team to wager on last season than the Cardinals since nothing was expected of the Pirates, Diamondbacks and Mariners.

St. Louis failed seven times as minus 150 or higher chalk during the final 30 games, twice losing as favorites of more than minus 200.

Dominating the division from 2000-2006, the Cardinals have averaged fewer than 85 victories in the last five years. Just once in the last four years have the Cardinals captured the NL Central.

Certainly the Cardinals look on paper to have enough to unseat Cincinnati and regain their prior elite status, especially with Jaime Garcia and Jake Westbrook as their No. 3 and No. 4 starters and an upgrade offensively at shortstop with Ryan Theriot.

But, then again, perhaps not as there remain question marks and holes.

Sure Pujols still is the most dangerous hitter in baseball pacing the NL in homers with 42 and RBI’s with 118 while batting .312. He finished second to Cincinnati’s Joey Votto in voting for the National League Most Valuable Player. Pujols has won the coveted award three times.

However, third base has become a black hole unless David Freese can get healthy following surgery on both of his ankles. The Cardinals have no power behind Freese at third base. St. Louis third basemen ranked last at the position in the National League in on-base percentage and home runs with seven.

Theriot is a better hitter than last year’s shortstop Brendan Ryan, but a downgrade defensively. Theriot and second baseman Skip Schumaker are one of the weaker double-play combinations. Theriot is the Cardinals’ fifth starting shortstop in the last five years.

Carpenter will turn 36 in late April. He’s still very good, but could break down any time. Franklin is two years older than Carpenter. Molina has knee issues. The 35-year-old switch-hitting Berkman couldn’t hit lefties last season, is a year removed from knee surgery hasn’t proven durable when playing in the outfield.

So while star power dots the lineup and pitching staff, there are serious concerns.

Much of the offseason was devoted to trying to sign Pujols to a long-term extension, which hasn’t happened yet and could prove distracting. Chemistry wasn’t great. It was a tense clubhouse.

Depth is a problem in the infield and defense is weak in the middle infield and at the corner outfield spots putting additional pressure on promising but youthful centerfielder Colby Rasmus.

Theriot, Holliday, Rasmus and even Pujols can all steal a base, but there are no great speedsters, which makes manufacturing runs difficult. Even with Pujols and Holliday – who batted .312 with 28 homers and 103 RBI – the Cardinals were only average in the major offensive categories ranking from 14th-to-16th in runs scored, on-base percentage and homers.

St. Louis had the fourth-best ERA at 3.57 but was 14th in errors and 20th in strikeouts.

This will be Tony La Russa’s 16th season as manager of the Cardinals. La Russa has the third most victories in baseball history, but isn’t guaranteed a 17th consecutive season if the Cardinals continue to miss the postseason.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-15-2011, 04:49 PM

MLB Betting: Kansas City Royals season preview

The Royals play 23 of their first 34 games at Kauffman Stadium.
A person who does not have all his faculties is said to be “missing a few cards.” The perennial cellar-dwelling Kansas City Royals enter the 2011 campaign missing not only their ace, but a few picture cards as well.

The Royals lost 95 games last season and again finished in the AL Central basement. But instead of trying to acquire established big-league players during the offseason, they traded 2009 Cy Young winner Zach Greinke and shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt to the Milwaukee Brewers for four quality young prospects.

Baseball analysts have been drooling about the Royals’ young talent for some time, and the team only added to its stockpile with this latest trade. Kansas City farmhands now comprise 12 percent of MLB'com's top 50 prospects.

Unfortunately, only a handful of those prospects are ready for prime-time playing.

Billy Butler has already established himself as a fine professional hitter. The pudgy first-baseman is coming off a fine 2010 campaign where he hit .318 with 15 HR, 45 doubles and 78 RBI.

Butler led a Kansas City offense that surprisingly had a .274 batting average, which was second highest in the majors.

The Royals also possess a first-rate closer in Joakim Soria, who collected 43 saves in 46 opportunities to go along with a sparkling 1.78 ERA.

But, other than Soria and the now departed Greinke, the pitching was abysmal. Kansas City was next-to-last in the league with a 4.97 ERA. Opponents hit a sizzling .276 against the club, which was also next-to-last.

A starting rotation of Gil Meche, Vin Mazzaro, Kyle Davies, Sean O’Sullivan and John Lamb is not going to strike fear in many AL Central hitters.

Meche made just nine starts last season because of injury and finished with a 0-5 record and a bloated 5.69 ERA. Davies was 8-12 with a 5.34 ERA in 32 starts. Without Greinke, those two right-handers will anchor the pitching staff.

Of course, defense also played a part in Kansas City’s troubles. The Royals registered a .980 fielding percentage last season, which was the 25th poorest mark in the league.

The Royals added two serviceable hitters who will attempt to hold down the fort until their boatload of prospects step up.

Jeff Francoeur will try to fit into Kansas City’s powder blue uniform after having weight issues last season. The 27-year-old outfielder batted .249 with 13 HR and 65 RBI while splitting time with the Mets and Rangers.

Melky Cabrera will likely hit in front of Francoeur in the lineup and play left field. Cabrera hit .255 with just four round trippers and 42 RBI with the Braves last season.

The schedule

Kansas City will play 23 of its first 34 games at Kauffman Stadium, where it went 38-43 last year. The early home games might give the Royals a chance to improve on a 21-31 start during the first two months of the 2010 campaign. The Royals’ interleague schedule will feature road games at San Diego, St. Louis and Colorado, and home contests against the Cardinals, Diamondbacks and Cubs.

The stats

The Royals were 8-10 against the National League last season, 12-24 versus southpaw starters and 55-71 against right-handers. They were 27-30 in one-run games and 10-8 in extra innings. The ‘over’ was 82-75-5 overall and 41-38-2 at home. Future book prices show Kansas City at 150/1 to win the World Series and 75/1 to capture the American League crown.

The prediction

Though there has not yet been an over/under win total posted for the 2011 baseball season, it would be surprising if oddsmakers opened the Royals with more than their 67 wins from last season.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-16-2011, 12:39 AM

MLB Betting: Kansas City Royals season preview

The Royals play 23 of their first 34 games at Kauffman Stadium.
A person who does not have all his faculties is said to be “missing a few cards.” The perennial cellar-dwelling Kansas City Royals enter the 2011 campaign missing not only their ace, but a few picture cards as well.

The Royals lost 95 games last season and again finished in the AL Central basement. But instead of trying to acquire established big-league players during the offseason, they traded 2009 Cy Young winner Zach Greinke and shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt to the Milwaukee Brewers for four quality young prospects.

Baseball analysts have been drooling about the Royals’ young talent for some time, and the team only added to its stockpile with this latest trade. Kansas City farmhands now comprise 12 percent of MLB'com's top 50 prospects.

Unfortunately, only a handful of those prospects are ready for prime-time playing.

Billy Butler has already established himself as a fine professional hitter. The pudgy first-baseman is coming off a fine 2010 campaign where he hit .318 with 15 HR, 45 doubles and 78 RBI.

Butler led a Kansas City offense that surprisingly had a .274 batting average, which was second highest in the majors.

The Royals also possess a first-rate closer in Joakim Soria, who collected 43 saves in 46 opportunities to go along with a sparkling 1.78 ERA.

But, other than Soria and the now departed Greinke, the pitching was abysmal. Kansas City was next-to-last in the league with a 4.97 ERA. Opponents hit a sizzling .276 against the club, which was also next-to-last.

A starting rotation of Gil Meche, Vin Mazzaro, Kyle Davies, Sean O’Sullivan and John Lamb is not going to strike fear in many AL Central hitters.

Meche made just nine starts last season because of injury and finished with a 0-5 record and a bloated 5.69 ERA. Davies was 8-12 with a 5.34 ERA in 32 starts. Without Greinke, those two right-handers will anchor the pitching staff.

Of course, defense also played a part in Kansas City’s troubles. The Royals registered a .980 fielding percentage last season, which was the 25th poorest mark in the league.

The Royals added two serviceable hitters who will attempt to hold down the fort until their boatload of prospects step up.

Jeff Francoeur will try to fit into Kansas City’s powder blue uniform after having weight issues last season. The 27-year-old outfielder batted .249 with 13 HR and 65 RBI while splitting time with the Mets and Rangers.

Melky Cabrera will likely hit in front of Francoeur in the lineup and play left field. Cabrera hit .255 with just four round trippers and 42 RBI with the Braves last season.

The schedule

Kansas City will play 23 of its first 34 games at Kauffman Stadium, where it went 38-43 last year. The early home games might give the Royals a chance to improve on a 21-31 start during the first two months of the 2010 campaign. The Royals’ interleague schedule will feature road games at San Diego, St. Louis and Colorado, and home contests against the Cardinals, Diamondbacks and Cubs.

The stats

The Royals were 8-10 against the National League last season, 12-24 versus southpaw starters and 55-71 against right-handers. They were 27-30 in one-run games and 10-8 in extra innings. The ‘over’ was 82-75-5 overall and 41-38-2 at home. Future book prices show Kansas City at 150/1 to win the World Series and 75/1 to capture the American League crown.

The prediction

Though there has not yet been an over/under win total posted for the 2011 baseball season, it would be surprising if oddsmakers opened the Royals with more than their 67 wins from last season.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-17-2011, 12:25 AM

MLB Betting: Texas Rangers season preview

The Texas Rangers must avoid the World Series hangover if they hope to meet their ultimate goal for the 2011 season.

Texas won the AL West with a 90-72 record last year before shocking AL East big boys Tampa Bay (3-2) and the NY Yankees (4-2) for its first World Series appearance in franchise history.

The dream season under manager Ron Washington ended after getting upset (4-1) by San Francisco, but it was still wildly successful overall.

The Rangers have several question marks about their squad and history is not on their side. The last team to win the World Series after losing in the Fall Classic the year before was the 1989 Oakland A’s.

Online sports books like BetUs.com are mixed about the Rangers’ chances. They’re the minus 110 favorite to win the AL West. That’s ahead of the L.A. Angels (plus 200), Oakland A’s (plus 300) and Seattle Mariners (plus 1400).

Texas’ pennant odds (plus 800) only trail Boston (plus 175) and the Yankees (plus 275), although by a significant margin. The World Series odds are at plus 1600.

The big offseason news was the departure of ace Cliff Lee. He came over from Seattle in July and was lights-out in the first two playoff series (3-0, .75 ERA) before coming back to Earth against San Fran (0-2, 6.95 ERA).

President Nolan Ryan and GM Jon Daniels made Lee a long-term, lucrative offer, but he spurned both the Rangers and Yankees to return to Philadelphia and the National League.

Pitching coach Mike Maddux is now picking up the pieces and forced to move everyone else up in the rotation. C.J. Wilson (15-8, 3.35 ERA) and Colby Lewis (12-13, 3.72 ERA) are at the top, and Tommy Hunter (13-4, 3.73 ERA) will have a spot if he stays healthy.

The intriguing Brandon Webb was signed as a free agent, but the former Arizona Cy Young award winner has missed almost the last two years (shoulder).

The big specter hanging over the staff is closer Neftali Feliz. He will be stretched out in spring training along with reliever Alexi Ogando, with one of them possibly joining the rotation. The loss of Feliz (40 saves, 2.73 ERA) could be catastrophic to the pen, especially with Frank Francisco traded, so look for him to stay put.

Texas’ relievers had the second best ERA (3.38) in the AL last year, with the staff tied for third as a whole (3.93). Maddux will need to pull some tricks out of his bag to match those numbers.

Texas’ offense was fourth in the AL last year in runs scored (787), but could have trouble keeping that pace. The big question is what happens with Michael Young, who got displaced from third base by free agent Adrian Beltre. Beltre had a great 2010 with Boston (102 RBIs, .919 OPS), but can he duplicate it in a non contract year?

Young was expected to DH with Vladimir Guerrero (115 RBIs) gone to Baltimore, but the long-time Ranger is unhappy with that role and will likely be traded. Texas still has three marquee offensive players in outfielders Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz, plus second baseman Ian Kinsler, but they averaged just 115 games last year.

There are some other valuable offensive pieces like first baseman Mitch Moreland. David Murphy and the newly acquired Mike Napoli can both DH if Young leaves. However, the team should think about keeping him as he can also serve in a super-utility role.

The Rangers finished last year at minus 5.7 moneyline units. Those losses came almost exclusively on the road (minus 5.5 units).

Texas’ stats as a favorite (minus 8.6 units) were offset some as a ‘dog (plus 2.9 units).

The ‘under’ (80-74-8) had a slight advantage overall for the Rangers last year. It was much more prevalent away (44-35-2) as their offense scored about a run less there than at home (4.41 vs. 5.31 per game).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-18-2011, 06:10 PM

MLB Betting: Houston Astros season preview

Houston begins 2011 with a brand new quartet manning the infield.
Paraphrasing Rick Blaine in Casablanca, "We'll always have 2005."

They're all gone now. Last season's July trades that sent ace Roy Oswalt and slugger Lance Berkman packing followed up on the retirements by Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio several years earlier. Just five full seasons since winning their only NL Pennant in 2005, the Houston Astros enter 2011 with only one player from that roster.

Two disclaimers to begin: 1) I gave this club my heart in 1962 when the franchise started, and; 2) My double throw-down locks for 2010 MLB futures included the Astros 'under' 74½ wins, a losing ticket when they finished with a 76-86 record.

Not being a believer in the whole 'bad beat' excuse for losing wagers, you'll never hear me whine too much about flushing that wager. Plus, it'll serve me well to remember not to count my chips before the hand is won again, a lesson I constantly relearn. I was doing that last July 26 when Houston stood 40-59 and on pace for maybe 66 wins. Trading Oswalt and Berkman away, the 'under' was a cinch, right?

No, as it turned out. Looking at their numbers, 'under bettors would've preferred Roy O and Fat Elvis had remained in Houston.

The Astros were 7-13 in Oswalt's 20 starts despite his 3.42 ERA wearing the brick-&-sand of Houston. Berkman's average dropped to .245 with Houston last season, and his power numbers between the Astros and Yankees dropped dramatically, nearly 100 points worth of slugging.

None of those stats drove the trades; simple economics and the payroll did that. The irony is without the ridiculous deal the club gave Carlos Lee before the '07 season, the club might have held onto either Oswalt or Berkman. Ah, but I digress.

Houston retools offense, lineup

Opening Day '10 saw the Astros put Geoff Blum, Kaz Matsui, Tommy Manzella and Pedro Feliz around the infield from first to third. Only Manzella stands a chance of being in the Game 1 mix this year, and that would be due to an injury.

Offseason acquisitions included Clint Barmes to play short and Bill Hall to play second. There's definitely the potential for a huge power upgrade from those two after Manzella and Jeff Keppinger combined for all of seven homers filling the midfield roles the majority of the time in 2010.

Chris Johnson is back at third after proving himself in 94 games last season, batting .308 with 11 HR and 52 RBI.

Across the diamond at first, Houston hopes Brett Wallace will step in and begin to realize some of the potential that made him the 13th-overall pick in 2008 by the Cardinals. If Wallace can't cut it, Carlos Lee will likely come in from left to play first, with Hall possibly moving to left and Keppinger back at second.

Picked three slots ahead of Wallace in that same draft was catcher Jason Castro who will be backed up by Humberto Quintero.

The outfield is where some of the best battles will be this spring, and where you could see the Astros deal from before Opening Day. Lee is in left, Michael Bourn leads off and resides in center and Hunter Pence is expected to drive this offense while playing right. Hall can play the outfield if need be, so it appears Jason Michaels, Jason Bourgeois and Brian Bogusevic are fighting for two spots at most. Michaels has been a favorite of Ed Wade's for a while, but Wade is running out of options on the other two and the club could try and give the full-time job in left to Bogusevic if Lee is going to take most of the AB's at first.

Wandy Rodriguez is the answer

For those wondering about the lone player on the current roster who was also part of that '05 team, it's Wandy Rodriguez who is one of three starters with a job guaranteed coming out of spring.

Rodriguez will be one of two southpaws, the other J.A. Happ who came from Philadelphia in the Oswalt trade. Brett Myers, also a former-Philly hand, is coming off a very solid campaign. Houston was 20-13 in his 33 starts, 12-5 from July on. Myers lasted at least six innings in all but one of his outings, his final start of the season when he worked 5-2/3 frames.

Right-handers Bud 'Cardinal Killer' Norris and Nelson Figueroa are penciled into the 4-5 slots of the rotation going into camp, but that could change. Houston will give a look-see this spring to righties Aneury Rodriguez and hometown boy Lance Pendleton, a former 4th-round pick by the Yankees in 2005 after a collegiate career at Rice. Two southpaws that will also be tested are Wesley Wright and Ryan Rowland-Smith.

Manager Brad Mills would ideally like to see Wright snare the left-handed relief role for late-inning situational use, but Wright hasn't really gripped that role in the past with any consistency.

Brandon Lyon will close, assuming Wilton Lopez and Jeff Fulchino can bridge from the starters. Fulchino will have to look good in the spring just to hold a job; Alberto Arias and Fernando Abad are two that could fill a late-inning role, as well as Sammy Gervacio once he's 100% from offseason shoulder work.

And the survey says...

There are mysteries on offense behind Pence, Lee, Bourn and Johnson, plus a fairly shallow and unproven bullpen infront of Lyon, himself needing to prove he can repeat his 2010 as the lone closer. It all adds up to a team that can easily lose 90 or surprise everyone with a win total in the mid-80s. And that's how it came off in my crude simulations.

According to the ol' Pythagorean calculation, the Astros overachieved by seven wins in 2010. If they could've played just within the NL Central, the 'Stros would've overachieved a little more. Houston was 45-33 (.576) against division foes, but struggled mightily versus the NL West (13-22) and in interleague play (3-12).

St. Louis and Cincinnati are the NLC favorites going in, and everyone expects bigger and better things from Milwaukee who finished just a game ahead of the Astros a year ago. A 75/1 long shot at Bodog to do the unthinkable and win the 2011 World Series, I suspect when the season win totals come out the number will be 73-74 for Houston. No more than 75 wins according to my crystal ball.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-21-2011, 04:10 PM

MLB Betting: Arizona Diamondbacks preview

Arizona is 12/1 to win the NL West and 100/1 to win the World Series.
The National League West Division looks wide open with every team except one having a shot.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are the team that has no chance, or do they?

Arizona was 65-97 last year. Only Pittsburgh and Seattle had worse records and only Seattle was worst from a money standpoint. The Diamondbacks were a money-draining minus 24.8 units in 2010.

Bookmaker.com is calling for slight improvement from the Diamondbacks. They list Arizona’s ‘over/under’ win total at 72. The Diamondbacks are 100/1 to win the World Series, according to odds at Bodog.com.

Arizona has the longest odds, along with San Diego, to capture the NL West at 12/1, according to odds at Sportsbook.com, which has defending world champion San Francisco at plus 160 followed by Colorado at plus 190 and the Los Angeles Dodgers at plus 250.

The Diamondbacks were a respectable 40-41 at Chase Field, but a horrendous 25-56 on the road.

San Diego won 90 games last season, so perhaps there is hope for Arizona. But it sure seems like a leap of faith considering the Diamondbacks’ many weaknesses.

Arizona’s starting pitching is young and largely untested, its bullpen had an ERA of 5.74–third worst in major league history–and the infield corners appear extremely weak.

Gone are third baseman Mark Reynolds and first baseman Adam LaRoche. They combined to smack 57 homers and drive in 185 runs. Replacing them are 39-year-old Melvin Mora and a probable platoon at first consisting of Juan Miranda, Brandon Allen, Russell Branyan and possibly outfielder Xavier Nady.

The starting pitching staff lacks an ace with both Brandon Webb and Dan Haren gone. Former Pittsburgh Pirates left-hander Zach Duke joins Joe Saunders, Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson and Barry Enright in the rotation. Look for a regression from Hudson after he went 7-1 with a 1.69 ERA coming from the Chicago White Sox.

New general manager Kevin Towers has reshuffled the team’s dreadful bullpen picking up J.J. Putz to be his closer. Putz was an All-Star with Seattle in 2007. However, he’s hasn’t closed since 2008 and underwent elbow surgery midway through 2009.

Lack of corner power and what could be improved relief pitching should mean more ‘unders’ for the Diamondbacks in 2011. The ‘over’ was 88-70-4 (55.6 percent) in Arizona’s games last season.

The Diamondbacks do have strengths. They are tough in the middle infield with shortstop Stephen Drew and second baseman Kelly Johnson. Catcher Miguel Montero was on the cusp of becoming a star, but suffered a knee injury that sidelined him two months. Justin Upton and Chris Young are young outfielders with power and speed.

Drew and Johnson give Arizona rare sock from the inside of the diamond combining for 41 homers. Montero batted .294 with 16 homers two seasons ago, but was limited to less than 300 at bats last year.

Upton has the potential to rate among the best outfielders. Upton couldn’t match his 2009 figures of batting .300 with 26 homers and 86 RBI’s, dropping to .273 with 17 homers and 69 RBI’s, but he’s only 23.

Young bounced back from a disappointing 2009 season to post 27 homers, drive in 91 runs and steal 28 bases last year, although batting .257.

Towers has given Kirk Gibson, starting his first full season as manager, a veteran coaching staff, including respected hitting coach Don Baylor. They might be able to get the best from Upton and Young.

The veteran Nady figures to hold down the other outfield spot while also drawing duty at first base. He’s been hampered by injuries the past two seasons, including being limited to just seven games in 2009 due to elbow surgery. Gerardo Parra is the top outfield reserve.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2011, 12:02 AM

MLB Betting: 2011 San Diego Padres preview

Off their 90-win season in 2010, the Padres are 75/1 long shots in 2011.
Hope springs eternal this time of year on the baseball diamond, especially for teams that have something to prove after just missing out on last year’s postseason party. San Diego finished two games behind eventual World Series champion San Francisco in the National League West, and was only a game away of capturing the wild-card berth.

How close were the Padres to winning their division and appearing in their first postseason since the 2006 campaign? San Diego had a six-game advantage over the Giants in late August before suffering through a 10-game losing streak. The Padres still had a miniscule half-game lead in the division on Sept. 26, but they were eliminated from the postseason on the last day of the marathon 162-game regular season.

Despite winning 90 games last year, San Diego is currently a tempting 40/1 long shot to win the NL pennant, and 75/1 to win the World Series. The Padres haven’t advanced to the postseason since winning the NL West in back-to-back seasons of 2005-06.

Get your programs

San Diego was one of the busier teams in the offseason, which is surprising for a squad that was so close to reaching the next level. Unfortunately, that is the mantra of any small-market team in Major League Baseball’s system.

Gone from last year’s squad are slugging first baseman Adrian Gonzalez who was traded to Boston for prospects, along with the veteran leadership of middle infielders David Eckstein and Miguel Tejada. This leadership vacuum figures on giving the Padres some growing pains heading into the 2011 campaign.

However, it wasn’t a mass exodus as starting pitcher Aaron Harang, relief pitcher Chad Qualls and infielder Orlando Hudson were signed to deals while outfielder Cameron Maybin, pitcher Casey Kelly, shortstop Jason Bartlett and catcher Rob Johnson were acquired in trades.

Catcher Nick Hundley figures on being a key component on this year’s squad. The three-year veteran has a talented pitching staff and bullpen to work with, and has shown promise at the plate during his brief career.

Bartlett was acquired from Tampa Bay in the offseason, and he is expected to fill the void of departed veterans Eckstein and Tejada. The double-play combination of Bartlett and Hudson has the potential to be a strong point on this squad.

Maybin was brought over from Florida, and the 24-year-old was the 10th pick in the 2005 MLB Draft. The speedy center fielder has a ton of potential, but has hit just .246 with 10 home runs with 78 runs and 36 runs batted in over a three-year career spent in Detroit and Florida. The Padres acquired him by shipping off two relievers from one of baseball’s best bullpens.

Pitching prospectus

Speaking of pitching, that remains San Diego’s strong point and main chance to contend once again in the NL West. The Padres ranked second in the league in team ERA (3.39), tossing 20 shutouts while allowing opponents to hit just .240.

PETCO Park is a pitchers’ paradise with its spacious outfield, and starting pitcher Mat Latos figures on being the main component once again. The right-hander racked up 14 wins last season along with a 2.92 ERA, surrendering 7.3 hits per nine innings while striking out an average of 9.2 batters.

Clayton Richard and Harang will also contribute to the starting rotation, but the fourth and fifth spots are still undecided. Kelly is a tantalizing prospect who was the key in the Gonzalez deal with Boston, and he could provide valuable innings.

Closer Heath Bell has quietly been one of baseball’s best closers the past couple of years, recording 40 saves the last two seasons with ERA’s of 2.71 and 1.93 respectively. Chad Qualls figures to settle into a middle reliever role in an effort to get Bell plenty of save opportunities.

Season outlook

San Diego retooled the middle of the field, and is younger, more explosive but less experienced. Expect the Padres pitching to again be the strong point of this team while they go through some growing pains. Another 90-win season will be a stretch, but this team should remain competitive and finish the year slightly over .500, making the 'over' 76 wins at Bookmaker.com the right play.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2011, 11:59 PM

MLB Betting: 2011 Los Angeles Angels preview

The Angels finished ninth in the AL in scoring last season, 4.20 RPG.
The Los Angeles Angels weren't officially eliminated from the 2010 AL playoff race until Sept. 24 when they dropped a 2-1 home game to the White Sox. A poor start out of the gate and a 4-12 stretch shortly after the All-Star Game contributed heavily.

Don't forget a strong Texas Rangers dominating the AL West, a huge part of why the Angels failed in their attempt for a fourth-straight division flag.

In reality, the Halos' campaign was done May 29. Kendry Morales uncorked a walk-off grand slam to give the Angels a 5-1 win in front of a packed Saturday afternoon house. The victory left the Angels 3.5 games out in the division behind the Oakland A's with Texas between them.

But Morales and the Angels celebrated a little too soon. The first sacker leaped in the air coming into home and hit the plate a little too hard. Diagnosis: broken left leg, out for season.

Mike Scioscia's crew would actually go on a little tear after that game, winning eight of their next nine and 11 of 15 over the next couple of weeks. June 13 found the club just a half-game behind Texas who had assumed command of the division. The long haul, however, was a different story.

Scioscia essentially replaced Morales' bat in his lineup – .290, 11 HR, 39 RBI in 51 games – with catchers Jeff Mathis and Bobby Wilson, shifting Mike Napoli to first. Mathis and Wilson hit .206 with seven homers and 33 RBI in a combined 129 games.

Oddsmakers and pundits alike see a much closer race in the AL West this season. Texas opened as minus 145 favorites to repeat, with the Angels and Athletics each plus 245 at Bookmaker.com. The same shop lists season win totals for that trio at 87½, 84 and 83 respectively.

Working in the Angels' favor to win their fourth division crown in five seasons is the schedule, but before we get to that let's check out the roster.

All's Wells in Anaheim

Addressing an offense that was ninth in the AL in scoring (4.20 RPG) and 12th in OPS (.702) was on GM Tony Reagins' mind this past winter. That LA suffered on offense wasn't unexpected after the club lost Vladimir Guerrero and Chone Figgins from the 2009 lineup.

Reagins' key acquisition to boost the bats was outfielder Vernon Wells, landed in a swap with the Blue Jays. A .280 career hitter, Wells is coming off a 31-HR, 88-RBI campaign with Toronto. Grabbing Wells isn't a bad deal. He's 31 and should have several more 25-35 homer seasons in him.

The problem is he's not just replacing Guerrero/Figgins now. The Angels also lost 47 dingers in trading Napoli (part of the Wells trade) and Hideki Matsui. Keeping Morales in the lineup for 150 games will also help, Torii Hunter (.281-23-90) is back after a solid 2010 and Bobby Abreu (.255-20-78) could easily increase his production with a healthy Morales plus Wells behind him in the order. Bigger and better things are also still expected from Howie Kendrick at second.

Still, all of that has to come through along with the many question marks. The Mathis-Wilson combination behind the plate would have a huge year if that pair combined for 10 dingers and an OPS above .700. Erick Aybar at short is a decent player, but his .306 on-base percentage is a big liability anywhere above ninth in the order. And youngster Peter Bourjos, expected to play center with Hunter moving to right, has to be considered an unknown. He's got some speed and a little pop – 6 HR in 200 major league plate appearances – and showed in the minors he can get on base at a decent rate.

Yes, the offense should be better, but how much? Rising two slots in scoring to seventh in the AL is what I'm betting on.

Haren, Weaver a nice 1-2 punch

The rotation, headed by Jered Weaver and Dan Haren, is the strongpoint entering spring training. Ervin Santana and Joel Pineiro give the Angels arguably the deepest 4-man rotation in the division. Scott Kazmir, the only southpaw of the bunch, has the potential to make it the best rotation in the Junior Circuit.

Kazmir is supposedly the subject of trade rumors, though the past two poor seasons in Anaheim probably wouldn't bring much immediate help in other areas, if any help at all.

If Kazmir is dealt away, it could open things up for Hisanori Takahashi to assume the sole left-handed starter's job. If not, the former Met will assist with long relief.

Speaking of relief, it's a bit unsettled. Scott Downs was inked to a new three-year deal as a free agent from Toronto this winter and the lefty enters camp as part of a closer-by-committee with Fernando Rodney, 14 saves as the part-time guy last season for the Halos after 37 in 2009 for Detroit.

Jason Bulger, Kevin Jepsen and Francisco Rodriguez are penciled in for 6th-7th innings. One guy to watch spring news on out in the 'pen is Michael Kohn. He's a hard-throwing right-hander who has strung together very good, progressive minor league numbers and could be a wild card for this team in relief.

Halos' favorable schedule

The close race that oddsmakers envision with their win totals was also realized in my simulations. Everything comes up a three-team race. The Seattle Mariners finished third in 5.1 percent of the computer runs, last 94.9 percent of the time, so if you want to bet a real long shot in this group, they're your team.

There will be 57 division matchups on the Angels slate, 30 in Anaheim and 27 on the road. That's a 10-9 home-away advantage with each of the other three teams.

The Halos will also have three interleague games at home versus both Washington and Atlanta, making an extra road trip to the NL East for games at the Mets and Marlins. June is the key month when the Angels will make cross-country flights twice a week apart. There are off days to make those treks, however, and the return flight home the night of June 22 from Miami is to begin a road trip at the Los Angeles Dodgers. So in addition to three extra home games against division foes, the Angels have a three-game 'road trip' versus the Dodgers when they can sleep in their own beds.

Pick: 'Over' 84 wins

**StarDust Bum** · 02-24-2011, 05:38 PM

MLB Betting: 2011 Los Angeles Dodgers preview
By: Stephen Nover | Thursday, February 24, 2011
The Dodgers enter ’11 trailing the Giants and Rockies on the odds board.
Few teams can match the Los Angeles Dodgers’ deep starting rotation.

It is lack of offense and uncertainty in management that makes the Dodgers just the third choice to win the National League Western Division.

But if the Dodgers’ promising hitters all step up and first-year manager Don Mattingly can handle the role, Los Angeles just could make it three division titles in the last four years.

Oddsmakers are skeptical following the Dodgers’ 80-82 record and fourth-place showing last season.

The Dodgers remain a huge public team so their odds of winning the World Series aren’t that dramatic at 35/1, according to Bookmaker.com. More telling is their ‘over/under’ win total of 82 ½ and 6/1 odds of taking the division behind favorite San Francisco at minus 115 and second-choice Colorado at plus 120.

The potential is there for Los Angeles to improve on its 27th ranking in home runs (second fewest in the NL), 24th rating in slugging percentage, 21st placing in runs and 19th ranking in batting average.

Outfielders Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and first baseman James Loney are all in their prime and fully capable of big seasons. The 25-year-old Kemp has averaged 27 homers and 26 steals the past two seasons.

The 28-year-old Ethier was leading the NL in homers, RBIs and batting average through mid-May, but suffered a broken pinky finger and never could regain his hot early form finishing with a .292 average, 23 homers and 82 RBI in 139 games.

Loney, 26, has a career batting average of .288. However, he’s never hit more than 15 homers and driven in more than 90 runs in a season.

Shortstop Rafael Furcal is an effective leadoff hitter if fully healthy.

Just two seasons ago, the Dodgers won a National League best 95 games. Their starting pitching remains superb with Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda – all big strikeout pitchers - and Jon Garland looking like the No. 5 starter.

The Dodgers’ staff could be even stronger around mid-season when Vicente Padilla recovers from elbow surgery, which he was scheduled to undergo this week.

Kershaw is the ace. The 22-year-old southpaw made the All-Star team last year. He’s had two straight years of a sub-par 3.00 ERA.

Los Angeles’ bullpen should be solid, too, with closer Jonathan Broxton back to full strength. Broxton slumped during the final six weeks probably because former manager Joe Torre overworked him.

The Dodgers had the second highest attendance in the NL and highest in 2009, but their ability to spend freely is limited by an ownership battle that was caused in part by the divorcee case between Frank and Jamie McCourt.

Los Angeles ownership also is paying off nearly $35 million to former Dodgers players Manny Ramirez, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones and Jason Schmidt.

So the Dodgers didn’t make their usual huge splash in the off-season bringing in infielder Juan Uribe to play second base, backup catcher Dioner Navarro to help replace traded Russell Martin, along with outfielders Marcus Thames and Tony Gwynn Jr. to compete with Xavier Paul for the starting left field spot.

Serious question marks are at catcher. Rod Barajas is 35 and a lifetime .239 hitter. Navarro batted .194 last year. He has a career batting mark of .249.

Third baseman Casey Blake is 37 and in decline. He had a career-worse 27.1 percent strikeout rate in 2010 while hitting only .234 during the second half of the season.

Managers aren’t a big handicapping factor, if any at all. But Mattingly could figure in the equation. He’s never had any legitimate managerial experience and remains a work in progress.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-26-2011, 10:31 AM

MLB Betting: 2011 San Francisco Giants preview

The San Francisco Giants are even-money favorites to win the NL West.
The San Francisco Giants won their first World Series since 1954, four years before moving West from New York, but what are the oddsmakers saying about their chances to repeat?

San Francisco took the NL West with a 90-72 record last year, just holding off the upstart San Diego Padres after overtaking them in September.

The first playoff series was 3-1 over Atlanta, followed by a 4-2 upset over the Philadelphia Phillies (more on them later). The 4-1 win over Texas in the Fall Classic brought tears to the eyes of long-suffering Giants fans, who endured World Series losses in 1962, 1989 and 2002.

Manager Bruce Bochy has the tremendous task of keeping his team focused. That won’t be easy even though his players aren’t ‘building mansions’ as Hank Steinbrenner recently said about Derek Jeter after the Yankees Series win two years ago. Ironically, the Yanks were the last team to repeat a little over a decade ago.

The easiest path for San Fran is to win the division again. Bookmaker.com has the NL West as a two-team race between San Francisco (plus 100) and Colorado (plus 120). The L.A. Dodgers (plus 500), San Diego (plus 1025) and Arizona (plus 2000) are all significantly behind.

San Francisco’s pennant odds (plus 485) only trail the Phillies (plus 175), who are also the World Series favorites (plus 240) after the free agent acquisition of Cliff Lee. The pennant odds were updated recently after St. Louis lost Adam Wainwright (elbow) for the season.

San Francisco’s Word Series odds are a reasonable plus 830. The regular season win total is an enticing 88.

The starters finished second in the NL in ERA (3.54) during the regular season. Ace Tim Lincecum struggled more than expected (3.43 ERA), including a 7.82 ERA in August. However, he excelled in five playoff starts (4-1, 2.43 ERA) and beat Lee (then with Texas) twice in the World Series.

Bochy has aleady announced his rotation and it’s Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, Matt Cain, Barry Zito and Madison Bumgarner. Putting Sanchez at the No. 2 means there won’t be three lefties at the end of the rotation. Zito was left off the playoff roster, but the four other guys played big parts in the championship.

San Francisco’s relievers also had the second best ERA (2.99) in the NL last year. Closer Brian Wilson had 48 saves and a 1.81 ERA and also threw 11 2/3 scoreless playoff innings. Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Ramon Ramirez and Jeremy Affeldt add nice depth heading into this season.

San Francisco’s offense was ninth in the NL in runs scored (697), and there should be at least some improvement. Catcher Buster Posey (18 homers, 67 RBIs) will get better as he turns just 24. Third baseman Pablo Sandoval (63 RBIs) is slimmed down and ready to resume at third base after getting benched most of the postseason.

Free agent Miguel Tejada should be an upgrade offensively at shortstop after finishing last year in San Diego. He replaces World Series MVP Edgar Renteria, with utility man Juan Uribe also gone.

First baseman Aubrey Huff led the team in home runs (26) and RBIs (86), but he could move to left field at some point when Brandon Belt is ready. Pat Burrell and Mark DeRosa will battle it out in left for now, while postseason hero Cody Ross is in right.

The Giants were at plus 10.5 moneyline units last year (third in the NL). Those gains came both at home (plus 4.0 units) and away (plus 6.5).

The ‘under’ (82-75-5) had a small advantage overall for the Giants. The ‘under’ was 44-33-4 at home, while the ‘over’ was 42-38-1 away.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-08-2011, 07:46 PM

MLB Betting: 2011 Chicago Cubs preview
By: Stephen Nover | Monday, March 7, 2011
Oddsmakers set the Cubs’ win total at 82 and 45/1 to win the Series.
Wait ‘till next year has always been a popular refrain for the Chicago Cubs. Bookmakers have profited well off the Cubs on the future book. The last time Chicago won the World Series was 1908.

So, will 2011 finally be the season the Cubs breakthrough? There’s more of a chance pigs will fly first unless multiple long shot factors break right for Chicago.

The Cubs still haven’t figured out that a big payroll doesn’t translate to automatic pennants because chemistry still matters and so does fundamentals.

Chicago took a huge step back last season going 75-87, which included a 35-46 home mark at venerable Wrigley Field.

Bookmaker.com has set Chicago’s ‘over/under’ regular-season win total at 82 and plus 390 to win the National League Central Division.

If you have money to waste, the Cubs’ World Series odds are 45/1.

Slugging first baseman Carlos Peña and pitcher Matt Garza are the latest big-name players brought in by the Cubs.

Problem is the 32-year-old Peña is in decline whose batting average and RBIs have dropped each of the past three seasons while Garza is a fly-ball pitcher who seems ill-suited for windy Wrigley Field.

Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez have big names, too, but also are fading.

Soriano has failed to score 100 runs or knock in 80 runs since joining the Cubs four years ago after signing an eight-year $136 million deal. Ramirez has played in an average of just 103 games during the past two years.

Kosuke Fukudome, another player the Cubs lavished with a huge contract, has never batted above .263 in three seasons with the team. Fukudome hasn’t hit more than 13 homers in a season, or knocked in more than 58 runs.

Shortstop Starlin Castro and outfielder Tyler Colvin do give the Cubs some young talent. The 20-year-old Castro led the Cubs in batting last season hitting .300.

Marlon Byrd is a steady centerfielder and Geovany Soto is one of the better catchers if he’s healthy, which he hasn’t been.

Second base, though, is a real weak spot and morale still seems shaky. Already there was a much publicized spring training scuffle between fifth-starter candidate Carlos Silva and Ramirez. Carlos Zambrano always is a blowup waiting to happen.

Mike Quade led the Cubs to 24 victories in their final 37 games after replacing a burned-out Lou Piniella.

Despite this short-term success – achieved when the pressure was off – the jury remains out on the largely untested Quade. If the Cubs begin the season slow, there could be a clamoring for Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg to take over.

Zambrano pitched great down the stretch going 8-0 with a 1.41 ERA. Zambrano has the talent to be an ace, but is one of the biggest head cases in baseball and can not be relied upon.

Ryan Dempster and Garza have proven consistent. Dempster has averaged 14 wins and 207 innings pitched during the past three seasons. Garza has averaged 11 victories and 155 strikeouts the past three years pitching for Tampa Bay in the brutal American League East.

The pitching question marks are at the No. 4 and No. 5 starting spots where Silva, Randy Wells and rookie Andrew Cashner are all competing. Wells failed to follow his solid 2009 form while Silva faded badly after a strong first half.

Closer Carlos Marmol averaged a major-league best 16 strikeouts per nine innings last season. Kerry Wood, the NL Rookie of the Year with the Cubs back in 1998, has returned to add bullpen support and possibly close again if Marmol should falter.

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MLB Betting: 2011 season fast approaching

MLB Betting: 2011 season fast approaching

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