MLB Betting: 2011 season fast approaching

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting: 2011 Oakland Athletics preview
By: Michael Robinson | Monday, February 28, 2011
The rotation holds promise for the A’s, but will there be enough offense?
The Oakland Athletics are armed and ready to compete for the AL West crown, but it will be their bats that will determine their ultimate fate.

The Athletics (81-81) finished second in the AL West last year, nine games behind Texas and one ahead of the L.A. Angels. They were 43-46 before the All-Star break and 38-35 after, never mounting a serious division challenge.

Oddsmakers at Bookmaker.com have the AL West as a three-way race between Texas (minus 120), the Angels (plus 220) and Oakland (plus 230). Seattle is an afterthought at plus 2100.

Oakland is also plus 1500 to win the American League with a regular season win total of 83.5.

The key to meeting any of the season goals is the pitching staff. It ranked first in the AL in ERA (3.56), with the starters (3.47, ranked first) outshining the relievers (3.83, ranked sixth).

The top four starters return from last season and all are 27-years-old or younger. They are Trevor Cahill (18-8, 2.97 ERA), Dallas Braden (11-14, 3.50 ERA), Gio Gonzalez (15-9, 3.23 ERA) and Brett Anderson (7-6, 2.80 ERA).

The fifth starter spot is up for grabs with Rich Harden and Brandon McCarthy two intriguing veterans in the mix.

Cahill is the ace of the staff despite not turning 23 until tomorrow. He’s the only right-hander of the group. The 23-year-old Anderson also has to prove he can stay healthy after just 112 1/3 innings last year.

There is some concern that Cahill (5.40), Braden (5.28) and Anderson (6.01) had mediocre strikeout rates last year. Gonzalez was at 7.67. The Athletics pitchers were bailed out some by above average defense and will need that again.

The bullpen is a solid group on paper, although closer Andrew Bailey (25 saves, 1.47 ERA) also needs to stay healthy. Veterans Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes were brought aboard this year and will compete with Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler, Jerry Blevins and Craig Breslow.

The Athletics finished 11th in the AL in runs scored last year (663). Third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff led them in both home runs (16) and RBIs (tied with 71), which showed their overall power outage.

The Athletics tied to address the issue in the offseason, bringing in outfielders Josh Willingham and David DeJesus, plus DH Hideki Matsui. Those three are penciled in for the middle of the order, with center fielder Coco Crisp and first baseman Daric Barton at the top. Barton could also bat third with DeJesus second.

Kouzmanoff and catcher Kurt Suzuki (71 RBIs as well) are scheduled to hit sixth and seventh, which is pretty good lineup depth. Second baseman Mark Ellis and shortstop Cliff Pennington will man the bottom of the order.

The Athletics were 47-34 at home and one of the AL’s top moneyline teams (plus 6.7 units). The road record was the inverse (34-47), translating into minus 9.3 units.

Oakland also struggled mightily as an underdog (minus 12.6 units), while flourishing as a favorite (plus 10 units).

The ‘under’ (83-68-11) not surprisingly had a significant advantage. The ‘under’ was 42-32-7 at home and 41-36-4 away.

The Athletics always seem to be in flux with aggressive GM Billy Beane. He’s all about building value with the lowest payroll in the division (around 65 million). There’s a good mix of youngsters and veterans, but the pitching staff can’t afford any drop-off, with the offense only projected to have modest improvement.

One thing for sure, Beane won’t be afraid to make a move at the July 31 trading deadline if a playoff spot is in reach.

Prediction: ‘under’ 83 ½-wins.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting: 2011 Seattle Mariners preview

The Seattle Mariners are staring at a 90-loss campaign for 2011.
Seattle, also called the Emerald City, is known for many things such as having a great seaport, lush landscapes and incredible coffee. However, this city was also recently named the most miserable sports city in North America. The forecast for the 2011 Mariners is predictably overcast with a very slim chance of a postseason appearance.

Seattle only has one professional sports champion on its resume, the NBA’s 1979 Supersonics squad, and that franchise bolted town for Oklahoma City in 2008. Meanwhile the Seahawks became the first NFL team in history to earn a playoff spot with a losing record, capturing the abysmal NFC West last year with a 7-9 record.

The Mariners stumbled their way to the second-worst record in baseball last year (thank you Pittsburgh), and trailed first-place Texas in the American League West standings by 29 games. Seattle accumulated 101 losses by going a lackluster 35-46 at Safeco Field, and 26-55 when playing on the road. The Mariners were 34 games out of the wild-card chase, and face long odds of making any serious moves on this year’s postseason.

Seattle is currently a 60/1 selection to win the AL pennant, ahead of only Cleveland and Kansas City at 100/1. The Mariners are also a dismal 125/1 to win the World Series, ahead of only the Indians (200/1), Royals (200/1) and Pirates (500/1). Seattle has a futures win total of 71.5 (minus 130), which would be a 10-game improvement from last year’s 61-101 campaign.

Bright spots

Finding bright spots for the Seattle Mariners might be as hard as locating a cloudless day in the Pacific Northwest, but there are a few rays of sunshine. Starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (13-12, 2.27 ERA) won the AL Cy Young Award despite getting the worst run support of any AL pitcher.

The right-hander received a league-low 3.1 runs per game last year, but he did lead the majors in innings pitched, ERA, opponents’ batting average and quality starts. The Venezuela native ranked second in strikeouts, and third in complete games.

Right-fielder Ichiro Suzuki has now collected 200 hits a season the past 10 years, and recorded 42 stolen bases in 2010. However the Japanese import is now 37 years old, but he should continue to thrive playing small ball at spacious Safeco Field.

Pitching Prospectus

There are plenty of question marks behind Hernandez in both the starting rotation and bullpen. Southpaw Jason Vargas secured nine victories last year in his best big-league season, benefitting from playing in a pitcher-friendly park. Erik Bedard is a talented left-handed pitcher, but he has not been able to stay healthy and be a stable force in the rotation.

Seattle does have some pitching prospects, but these players will probably take their lumps behind an anemic offense. Right-handed power-pitcher Michael Pineda would still be a Triple-A project for teams with a solid rotation, but he figures on contributing to the Mariners as the fourth or fifth starter. Doug Fister enjoyed a solid start to last year before fading down the stretch, while Luke French might split time between starting and the bullpen.

Speaking of the relievers, even the lone commodity is a question mark heading into the season. David Aardsma is the established closer, but the right-hander is still recovering from hip surgery. If he returns and pitches like he did last season, expect Aardsma to be traded to a contender. Righty Brandon League figures on inheriting the closers role until Aardsma returns, but he is better suited as a setup man.

Anemic Offense

While Seattle ranked 10th in team pitching last year, the offense finished dead last with a .236 batting average. The Mariners managed just 513 runs and 101 home runs, with 459 walks and 1184 strikeouts.

Behind Suzuki, the offense will need a spark from somewhere. The Seattle brass is hoping that third baseman Chone Figgins can rebound from a disastrous 2010 season, and contribute near the top of the order.

The middle of the lineup features Franklin Gutierrez, Jack Cust and Justin Smoak, not exactly Murderers Row. There is potential with these guys, but there will also be plenty of growing pains throughout the summer. This team will have to win low scoring games through pitching and defense, so don’t expect a lot of slugfests from the Mariners.

Prediction

Seattle has some prospects and one of baseball’s best young arms in Hernandez, but this team will take its lumps and not be a serious contender in the foreseeable future. Expect the Mariners to again battle for the AL West basement, and to wager ‘under’ their season win total of 71 games.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting: 2011 Colorado Rockies preview

Colorado has to get out of the gate strong with an easy April schedule.
Generally when an MLB team hands out around $200 million in offseason contracts, it's a case of new faces joining the roster. Such was not the case this past winter for the Colorado Rockies whose spending spree was done on the home team shopping channel.

There are new faces at camp in Scottsdale that figure to be key components in Colorado's hopes of getting into the NL playoffs. But the big contracts instead went in the form of extensions to shortstop Troy Tulowitzki (six years, $119 million) and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez (seven years, $80 million).

Tulo and CarGo are part of a current three-headed monster for the Rockies along with starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez. Having turned 27 about two weeks before camp, Jimenez qualifies as the elder of the bunch. Additional youngsters such as Ian Stewart, Dexter Fowler and Jhoulys Chacin add to the mix for manager Jim Tracy and his coaching staff to meld with a veteran group that includes old Rockies standards like Todd Helton and Aaron Cook plus newcomers Ty Wigginton, Jose Lopez and Matt Lindstrom.

The pieces are definitely there for the Rockies to make the playoffs, possibly even wrestle the NL West belt from the defending world champion San Francisco Giants. Now, will they all fit together?

A severe case of the Coors Field, road game split blues

Colorado could neither win nor hit on the road last season. The Rocks were a sparkling 52-29 at the House That Coors Built, and a puny 31-50 on the road. That nearly 260-point win percentage difference is backed up by more than two runs per game less on the road than at home and a 72-point batting average letdown.

The gap was even larger in the second half when the Rocks averaged just 3.2 runs per road game after the All-Star break. Nine of their 31 wins away came as a result of Colorado pitchers blanking the other team. Those were the only nine shutouts by the mound staff.

Tulowitzki and Gonzalez were guilty of lesser numbers on the road than at home, but the two stars still hit well away from Denver, .291 and .289 respectively. The trio that really needs to step their games up in 2011 both at home and on the road are Dexter Fowler, Seth Smith and Chris Iannetta. Fowler and Smith will fill out the outfield along with Gonzalez, and they're coming off seasons in which their home/road splits were atrocious. Fowler's OPS was over .400 points lower away from home, sub-.600, while Smith's OPS gap was a tad over .300 points.

Iannetta simply stunk it up at home and on the road, hitting below the Mendoza line and slugging all of .383 for the season. As the team's No. 1 backstop now that Miguel Olivo is gone, Colorado can't afford for Iannetta to be a black hole in the lineup again.

Tulo's infield mates will be Ian Stewart at third, the veteran Helton across at first and some mix of Lopez and Eric Young Jr. at second. Lopez adds insurance for the hot corner, with Wigginton offering capable backup at both infield corners, especially at first base for Helton who is clearly on the downswing of his career.

Wigginton also provides some backup in the outfield corners. Ryan Spilborghs is the proverbial fourth outfielder on the team and versatile enough to play all three positions.

Home/away pitching splits not as pronounced

The home/away statistical splits also carried over to the mound, though nowhere near as pronounced as the batting numbers. The five arms expected to serve as Colorado's starting rotation this season – Jimenez, Chacin, Jorge De La Rosa, Aaron Cook and Jason Hammell – combined for a very nominal ERA gap, 3.86 at Coors and 4.04 on the road. Cook and Hammell were the primary culprits away from home with 5.85 and 5.71 marks.

It goes without saying that Jimenez has to once again lead this group. There's a lot of promise in Chacin and De La Rosa behind him, assuming Chacin doesn't succumb to the dreaded sophomore jinx and the southpaw De La Rosa can stay healthy enough to make 30+ starts. Hammell and Cook are big question marks at the back of the order, with Cook already slowed in the early days of camp with a sore shoulder.

Depth in the rotation is lacking. Felipe Paulino, acquired from Houston in the deal that sent infielder Clint Barmes to the Astros, is one to watch this spring. He throws hard and has always held a lot of potential. At 27, he's still young enough to realize it.

Huston Street enters the campaign with the closer's job after saving 20 in 25 opportunities last year. A deep Rockies relief corps includes Matt Belisle, Rafael Betancourt and Matt Lindstrom, another arm picked up from Houston in a separate offseason trade. Belisle and Betancourt were marvelous in 2010 bridging from the starters to Street (or Manny Corpas who served as the closer for a while). The knock on Lindstrom has always been wildness and health issues. If he can harness his stuff and remain healthy, this could eventually pan out as one of the top bullpens in the major leagues.

Trip to Yankee Stadium on schedule

A 9-6 record against AL teams last season made the Rockies one of eight NL clubs to post a winning interleague mark. Colorado's interleague slate this time includes road trips to play the Yankees and Indians with home series against the Royals, Tigers and White Sox.

In addition to the horrible road mark in 2010, Colorado also came up short in comparison to its NL West rivals when it came to playing and beating NL Central clubs. San Francisco and San Diego, the two clubs that finished ahead of the Rocks in the division, recorded 28-14 and 27-14 records versus NLC squads while Colorado posted a 21-20 mark.

The Rockies will have their road woes tested early on with eight of their first 13 games away from home. Colorado's 2011 slate also begins with a fairly easy April, if 2010 records are much indication. The club's first 16 games will be against teams that recorded losing records a year ago, and only three of their first 31 games are opposite a winning club from last season. Those three games are a home series versus the Giants in mid-April.

Betting the 2011 Rockies

The bottom line for Dan O'Dowd and his bosses this season looks to be about a $93 million payroll, give or take a few million. Seven NL clubs will pay more for their pennant chances while MLB bettors can have the Rockies as the fourth-highest favorite to win the Senior Circuit at around 12/1.

Colorado finished nine games back of the San Francisco Giants in the NL West last season, and eight behind wild-card winner Atlanta. The Giants are still the favorites in the division, but not by much according to the oddsmakers. San Fran is 3/2 or thereabouts to take the NL West with the Rockies a little shy of 2/1 at most shops. But odds can be found that have the two squads in a dead heat around plus 180.

Off 83 wins a year ago, 2011 win totals are in the 86½-87 span. Colorado completely fell apart the final two weeks of the 2010 campaign, winning just one time in the last 14 games. Simply avoiding a closing stretch like that would push the club plus-five in the win column this time around.

The Rockies averaged 87.2 wins in my simulations. It's easy to project a fairly major regression in the division for the Padres, so 88 wins would definitely have the team in the running for the NL wild card. I'm just not ready to pick the Rockies to beat out the Giants and win the division.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting: 2011 Minnesota Twins Preview

The Twins are favored to win their seventh division crown in 10 seasons.
The Minnesota Twins captured the American League Central title in 2010 for the sixth time in the last nine years despite closer Joe Nathan missing the entire campaign and all-star first-baseman Justin Morneau being absent after July 7 because of a concussion.

If those two important pieces to the Twins’ puzzle can stay healthy, Ron Gardenhire’s troops could improve on last season’s 94-69 ledger. However, Bookmaker.com opened the club’s ‘over/under’ victory total at just 86 wins.

The Twins accumulated last season’s 94 victories thanks to a 36-22 mark over the last 58 outings. That placed them a comfortable six games in front of the second-place White Sox.

Minnesota opened as a 7/5 favorite to repeat as Central Division champs, 10/1 to take the American League crown and 22/1 to capture the World Series.

Morneau’s health is one of several questions the Twins face this spring. He has done every normal drill during spring training and fully expects to play once the regular season begins. The big first-sacker was leading team in batting average (.345), homers (18), slugging percentage (.618) and on-base percentage (.437) before the injury.

All-star catcher Joe Mauer had an offseason cleanup procedure for the cartilage in his left knee and had an injection of fluid last week to lubricate the joint. Despite squatting behind the plate in 137 games last season, Mauer hit .327 with nine homers and 75 RBI.

Gardenhire's spring priority is to fill his bullpen after the losses of Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes to free-agency. But Nathan has seemingly returned to full health, and the Twins will have late-season acquisition Matt Capps for the full year.

Capps had 16 saves for the Twins after accumulating 26 for Washington during the first part of the 2010 campaign.

The Twins didn’t make a big splash during the offseason, but they might have done just enough.

Jim Thome, who hit 25 homers in 340 plate appearances, told the Rangers he felt comfortable in Minnesota and decided to re-sign with the Twins. Carl Pavano, a 17-game winner with a league-leading seven complete games and two shutouts, also decided to stay in the Twin Cities.

The Twins won the bidding rights for Japanese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, and the $5.3 million they paid should be money well spent. The 26-year-old switch-hitter had a .346 average for the Chiba Lotte Mariners last season, plus he can play both second-base and shortstop.

Francisco Liriano returns as the ace of the pitching staff. The hard-throwing southpaw had 201 strikeouts in 191 2/3 innings to go with a 14-10 record and a 3.62 ERA.

Nick Blackburn (10-12, 5.42 ERA) and Scott Baker (12-9, 4.39 ERA), who each had offseason surgeries, round out a starting pitching staff that led the league in wins last season (73).

The schedule

The Twins went 15-8 last April, but they might be hard-pressed to duplicate that feat this time around. They will begin the campaign with a seven-game road trip against the Blue Jays and Yankees, and must also play the tough Tampa Bay Rays seven times during the opening month.

Minnesota’s interleague schedule will feature road contests against Arizona, Milwaukee and San Francisco and home series versus the Brewers, Padres and Dodgers.

The stats

Minnesota was 8-10 against the NL last season, 32-24 versus southpaw starters, 62-44 against right-handed starters, 31-23 in one-run games and 9-5 in extra-inning affairs. Any worries about the Twins not faring as well as they had in the Metrodome were put to rest last year when the Twinkies went 53-28 in their first season at Target Field.

The prediction

Having a healthy Nathan and Morneau for an entire season will be imperative if the Twins are to match last year’s 94 wins. However, a tough interleague schedule and the improvement of the White Sox and Tigers in their own division might make that number a bit difficult to reach. Nevertheless, good health might be enough for the Twins to go ‘over’ the 86-win total set by the majority of offshore sports books.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting: 2011 Milwaukee Brewers preview

The Brewers added Zack Greinke to their rotation this past offseason.
The Milwaukee Brewers would be dangerous if they had starting pitching.

So they used to say.

That refrain no longer pertains to Milwaukee because the Brewers finally have big-time starters in Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum and Randy Wolf.

Mix that pitching in with the power of Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Casey McGehee, Richie Weeks and Corey Hart and suddenly the Brewers are serious National League pennant contenders.

The Brewers are co-favorites with Cincinnati and St. Louis at plus 190 to win the NL Central Division, according to odds at Bookmaker.com. Milwaukee is 18/1 to win its first World Series. The ‘over/under’ regular-season win total for the Brewers is 85 ½.

The Brewers smacked 182 homers last year, led by Fielder’s 32. That ranked fifth-best in baseball. Milwaukee also scored the 11th most runs despite not taking advantage of some of their speed.

Milwaukee’s offense could be even better under new manager Ron Roenicke, who should prove more popular with the players than previous managers Ken Macha and Ned Yost. Roenicke isn’t afraid to let speedsters Weeks and Carlos Gomez run more. Braun and Hart are capable of stealing bases, too.

Fielder and Braun had good, but not great seasons in 2010. Fielder, though, hit 14 more homers and drove in 58 more runs in 2009.

Braun batted .304 with 25 homers and 103 RBIs last year. Those numbers were down, too, from 2009 when Braun hit .320, smacked 32 homers and drove in 114 runs.

The Brewers upgraded their power at shortstop with Yuniesky Betancourt, who hit 16 homers and drove in 78 runs for Kansas City last season. That was two more RBIs than Florida superstar shortstop Hanley Ramirez had.

Weeks, McGehee, Hart and Betancourt combined to hit 99 homers last year.

Milwaukee’s infield defense is suspect and projected starting catcher Jonathan Lucroy is untested with his backups weak. Lucroy may even begin the season on the DL after breaking the pinkie on his throwing hand.

The key, as always, is pitching. The Brewers rode CC Sabathia to the playoffs in 2008 making it as a wild card entry. Previous to that, Milwaukee hadn’t made the postseason since 1982. They were 77-85 last year.

Greinke is in Sabathia’s dominant class although he doesn’t have the victories to show for it having toiled for Kansas City during the past seven seasons. He had a down year in 2010 going 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA. However, two seasons ago Greinke won the American League Cy Young Award with a 16-8 record, 2.16 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 242-to-51.

A change of scenery to a much stronger hitting club and switching to the more pitching-friendly National League can’t hurt Greinke. Playing in a small market should relieve some of the pressure, too, on Greinke.

Marcum pitched for baseball’s No. 1 home run-hitting team the Toronto Blue Jays last year, but he also should be helped getting away from the brutal AL East Division.

Marcum came back from an elbow ligament replacement that wiped out his 2009 season to post a 13-8 record with Toronto last year with a 3.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

Gallardo may not be an ace, but he’s a solid No. 2 starter. Wolf and No. 5 starter, Chris Narveson, are both southpaws giving Milwaukee good balance.

Closer John Axford proved to be a revelation midway through the season as all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman clearly had reached the end of the line. Axford won eight games and saved 24 compiling a 2.48 ERA.

Axford pitched far more effectively than many big-name closers. He averaged 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings, blew just two saves and surrendered only one home run in 58 innings.

Veterans Takashi Saito and LaTroy Hawkins will serve as set-up relievers.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting: 2011 Chicago White Sox preview

Third base is the only position up for grabs in ChiSox camp this spring.
A wager on the Chicago White Sox to win the 2010 AL Central title was in pretty good shape when the All-Star Game rolled around. Though Chicago's lead was only a half-game over Detroit and 3.5 over Minnesota at the break, the White Sox were white-hot having resurrected a season that saw them 9.5 out of the lead with a 24-33 record on June 8.

Chicago's torrid 25-5 pace from June 9 to July 11, a span that included streaks of 11- and 9-straight wins, had the Sox looking like true contenders for not only the division, but the American League and beyond.

The team picked up its 50th dubya the first crack out of the all-star break, a big win on the road against the rival Twins. Minnesota promptly won the next three games of the series and Chicago never really recovered despite sitting just four games out to open September.

Chicago did cash win total tickets for those holding 'over' 82½ futures, the club finishing with a respectable 88-74 record. Ozzie Guillen's gang still failed as plus-140 bets to take the ALC, finishing six games behind the Twins for the division title and even less of a threat to the Yankees for the wild card.

Rumors of Guillen getting the ax in Chicago have run off-&-on over the years, but the notion that he has to get this team into October or find a new job appears a solid wager. The Pale Hose have a great mix of power and speed on offense and a deep starting rotation, so Guillen should win. If not, we know he won't quit.

"I'm not a quitter," Guillen said a couple of years ago when rumors were afloat. "When I want to quit, I'll do a lot of stupid things and make sure they fire me and get paid."

Hot corner only position fight in camp

The 2010 season saw Chicago rank in the top third of the AL in homers, steals, batting and slugging, yet a pedestrian seventh in the league in pushing runs across the plate. Adding Adam Dunn to the lineup will definitely increase the pop as well as help with a higher on-base mark. Dunn's career .381 OBP is about 50 points higher than the team's seventh-best AL mark last season.

Dunn's arrival is the big news, but Gordon Beckham and Alexei Ramirez hold the key to this lineup. The middle-infield tandem combined for a .315 OBP, with Beckham taking a huge step backwards in his development.

Third base was also a soft spot and it still may be depending how spring competition goes. Brent Morel is the best bet to emerge with the job at least most of the time. His stick is light but his glove mighty, certainly better than Mark Teahen's mitt. Teahen will eventually play both infield corners, possibly both outfield corners, and second base.

There's more versatility with veteran Omar Vizquel an infield reserve. Rookie Dayan Viciedo could also play a reserve role at the infield and outfield corners. First base belongs to Paul Konerko and catcher to AJ Pierzynski.

Juan Pierre, Alex Rios and Carlos Quentin flank the outfield from left to right; keeping Quentin around for all six months of the regular season is essential to postseason play.

Peavy's return remains a mystery

There's no glitter when it comes to the Chicago starting rotation, yet there's still a lot to like. Aside from Jake Peavy's 2007 NL Cy Young that seems longer ago than that, the quintet that also includes southpaws Mark Buehrle and John Danks plus righties Edwin Jackson and Gavin Floyd isn't heavy in terms of postseason accolades on the backs of bubblegum cards.

Peavy's availability to start the season and then throughout the campaign remains a question mark. If he can answer the call for 25+ starts, it's a staff that has no real ace yet all can pitch like rotation No. 2's.

Trying to figure out how Guillen might use his bullpen would be most presumptuous on my part. Attempting to get inside the man's head is wasted effort always. Bobby Jenks left for Boston, so Matt Thornton appears the most logical choice to take over closing duties, and all signs point to that being the case.

Chris Sale is either the stud-starter or stud-closer in waiting. The young lefty should be in a middle/setup role out of the 'pen to open the year with right-handers Jesse Crain, Tony Peña and Sergio Santos also part of the plan. Santos is an interesting name to watch this spring, a hard thrower who is really just learning to pitch.

NL West trio part of interleague schedule

No team posted a better interleague record than the White Sox who went 15-3 on the Senior Circuit portion of their '10 slate. That included series sweeps at Pittsburgh and Washington plus a home-series brooming of the Braves.

Chicago gets the Nats again, only at home this time, plus another home-&-home with the crosstown Cubs who the ChiSox topped four times out of six last year. The remaining NL games will be three-game sets at Arizona and Colorado plus home games against the Dodgers.

Where Chicago really struggled was inside the AL Central (32-40), a mark that was in the red entirely due to a 5-13 record versus the Twins. They will only see the Twins twice (both games at home) before mid-June and won't face Minnesota after Sept. 7, making for a lot of action between the rivals pressed into less than a 12-week span.

Betting the White Sox

The White Sox are back as favorites or co-favorites to win the division once again. Some places see a dead heat between Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota, but most sports books are listing Chicago in the same plus-140, plus-150 range they had them last year in the AL Central.

Simulations averaged out to 86.8 wins this year for the Pale Hose; win total futures are 84½-85½ depending where you shop. The 'over' will suck me in once more, plus I like this team in the 10/1, 12/1 range for winning the American League. And yes, by saying that I do understand it means having to live with Guillen possibly doing "stupid things."

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting: 2011 Chicago Cubs preview

Oddsmakers set the Cubs’ win total at 82 and 45/1 to win the Series.
Wait ‘till next year has always been a popular refrain for the Chicago Cubs. Bookmakers have profited well off the Cubs on the future book. The last time Chicago won the World Series was 1908.

So, will 2011 finally be the season the Cubs breakthrough? There’s more of a chance pigs will fly first unless multiple long shot factors break right for Chicago.

The Cubs still haven’t figured out that a big payroll doesn’t translate to automatic pennants because chemistry still matters and so does fundamentals.

Chicago took a huge step back last season going 75-87, which included a 35-46 home mark at venerable Wrigley Field.

Bookmaker.com has set Chicago’s ‘over/under’ regular-season win total at 82 and plus 390 to win the National League Central Division.

If you have money to waste, the Cubs’ World Series odds are 45/1.

Slugging first baseman Carlos Peña and pitcher Matt Garza are the latest big-name players brought in by the Cubs.

Problem is the 32-year-old Peña is in decline whose batting average and RBIs have dropped each of the past three seasons while Garza is a fly-ball pitcher who seems ill-suited for windy Wrigley Field.

Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez have big names, too, but also are fading.

Soriano has failed to score 100 runs or knock in 80 runs since joining the Cubs four years ago after signing an eight-year $136 million deal. Ramirez has played in an average of just 103 games during the past two years.

Kosuke Fukudome, another player the Cubs lavished with a huge contract, has never batted above .263 in three seasons with the team. Fukudome hasn’t hit more than 13 homers in a season, or knocked in more than 58 runs.

Shortstop Starlin Castro and outfielder Tyler Colvin do give the Cubs some young talent. The 20-year-old Castro led the Cubs in batting last season hitting .300.

Marlon Byrd is a steady centerfielder and Geovany Soto is one of the better catchers if he’s healthy, which he hasn’t been.

Second base, though, is a real weak spot and morale still seems shaky. Already there was a much publicized spring training scuffle between fifth-starter candidate Carlos Silva and Ramirez. Carlos Zambrano always is a blowup waiting to happen.

Mike Quade led the Cubs to 24 victories in their final 37 games after replacing a burned-out Lou Piniella.

Despite this short-term success – achieved when the pressure was off – the jury remains out on the largely untested Quade. If the Cubs begin the season slow, there could be a clamoring for Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg to take over.

Zambrano pitched great down the stretch going 8-0 with a 1.41 ERA. Zambrano has the talent to be an ace, but is one of the biggest head cases in baseball and can not be relied upon.

Ryan Dempster and Garza have proven consistent. Dempster has averaged 14 wins and 207 innings pitched during the past three seasons. Garza has averaged 11 victories and 155 strikeouts the past three years pitching for Tampa Bay in the brutal American League East.

The pitching question marks are at the No. 4 and No. 5 starting spots where Silva, Randy Wells and rookie Andrew Cashner are all competing. Wells failed to follow his solid 2009 form while Silva faded badly after a strong first half.

Closer Carlos Marmol averaged a major-league best 16 strikeouts per nine innings last season. Kerry Wood, the NL Rookie of the Year with the Cubs back in 1998, has returned to add bullpen support and possibly close again if Marmol should falter.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting: 2011 Detroit Tigers preview

The Tigers need to improve a 29-52 road record to contend in 2011.
Similar to a good mystery novel, nobody really knows what to expect when the 2011 Detroit Tigers season reaches its final chapter in September.

Oddsmakers at Bookmaker.com opened the Tigers at 20/1 to capture the World Series, 8/1 to win the AL pennant and an 8/5 second-choice to finish first in their own division. The club’s over/under win total is set at 84 wins, three more than it managed during last season’s 81-81 campaign.

One of Detroit’s main mysteries surrounds Miguel Cabrera, the squad’s best offensive player. The slugging first-sacker didn’t make it to spring training on time because of a DUI arrest a few days before camp started. Cabrera, who is constantly battling weight and alcohol problems, must overcome both tribulations if the Tigers have any chance of overcoming the defending champion Minnesota Twins in the AL Central.

Jim Leyland’s troops need Cabrera to at least come close to the numbers he put up last season, which were good enough to finish second in AL MVP voting. The 27-year-old hit .328 with 38 HR and 126 RBI in 150 games.

Those stats become even more impressive considering Cabrera had little or no protection behind him at the No. 5 spot in the batting order.

The Tigers believe they solved that dilemma by signing free-agent catcher Victor Martinez. The 32-year-old veteran hit .302 in 127 games with the Boston Red Sox last year. He also has some power, evidenced by his 20 HR and 79 RBI.

Detroit also re-signed Magglio Ordoñez, their own free agent who played in just 84 games last year before breaking his ankle sliding into home plate. Ordonez was hitting .303 with 12 HR and 59 RBI in 323 plate appearances before suffering the season-ending injury.

Relief pitcher Joaquin Benoit is Detroit’s other free-agent prize. The 33-year-old right-hander had a miniscule 1.34 ERA in 63 appearances for Tampa Bay last season. He fanned 75 batters and walked just 11 in 60 1/3 innings.

Starting pitching could also be a bit of a mystery, especially at the back end where Phil Coke and Brad Penny reside.

Coke will be asked to fill the No. 4 starting spot after pitching the entire 2010 campaign out of the bullpen. Penny, who will be requested to fill the No. 5 spot, was signed as a free-agent after missing most of last season with a back injury.

Jose Valverde will again be assigned the closers role. The animated right-hander was 2-4 with a 3.00 ERA and 26 saves in 29 opportunities last year. However, the pudgy 33-year-old faded during the last three months of the season when the Tigers went 40-45.

The schedule

Getting off to a good start won’t be easy. The Tigers begin the campaign with three games at Yankee Stadium against the Bronx Bombers before traveling to Baltimore for a three-game set against the improved Orioles.

Detroit also must go on a seven-game West Coast trip through Oakland and Seattle during the opening month.

The interleague schedule includes road games against the Rockies, Dodgers and Pirates and home contests versus the Diamondbacks, Mets and defending champion Giants.

The stats

Detroit was 11-7 in interleague play last season. The club was 52-29 at home, 29-52 on the road, 15-18 against teams in its own division, 26-21 against southpaw starters, 16-26 in one-run games and 7-8 in extra innings.

The prediction

The Tigers will go as far as Miguel Cabrera takes them. If the slugging first-baseman can overcome his off-the-field problems and come close to the same numbers he produced in his first few seasons in Detroit, the Tigers will improve on last year’s 81 wins. If Phil Coke and Brad Penny can anchor the back end of the starting pitching staff, the Tigers could also go ‘over’ the 84-win total assigned to them by most offshore sports books.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting: 2011 Toronto Blue Jays preview

The Toronto Blue Jays led the majors with 257 home runs last season.
The Toronto Blue Jays have a problem with geography, and this has nothing to do with the fact that they are the lone team in Major League Baseball that resides in Canada. Toronto plays in arguably the toughest division in baseball, the American League East, and not the much easier AL Central.

The Blue Jays are a respectable 25/1 to win the AL pennant, but that ranks fourth in the AL East behind favorites Boston and New York (5/2) and Tampa Bay (10/1). Toronto is also a 50/1 long shot to capture its first World Series since Joe Carter was running around the bases in the early 1990s. Other teams with 50/1 odds entering the season are the Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, Florida and Oakland.

The Blue Jays finished in their customary fourth spot in the division compliments of an 85-77 record, 11 games behind Tampa Bay and 10 games out of the wild card. But Toronto is expected to fall off that pace from last year, and has been installed with a season win total of 77 games.

Exchange Rate

The Blue Jays clubbed a league-record 257 home runs last year, but outfielder Vernon Wells and his sizeable contract have been shipped off to the Los Angeles Angels. Toronto is hoping that slugger Jose Bautista can repeat his incredible 2010 season that saw him hit 54 home runs along with 124 runs batted in.

New manager John Farrell is moving Bautista from right field to third base, hoping his offensive numbers don’t suffer.

First baseman Adam Lind hit .305 with 35 home runs two years ago before falling to .237 and 23 last season. Second baseman Aaron Hill also saw his numbers take a dip last year, while Edwin Encarnacion hopes to rebound from injuries that limited him to just 332 at-bats.

The Blue Jays won’t just try to outslug teams, and acquired speedy center fielder Rajai Davis who has 91 stolen bases the past two years. Youth will also be served with outfielder Travis Snider and shortstop Yunel Escobar, but this team will have a hard time reaching last year’s win total.

Youth Served

Speaking of youth, Toronto’s pitching staff is expected to see some growing pains. Shaun Marcum is now a member of the Milwaukee pitching staff, meaning Ricky Romero (27-18, 3.99 ERA the past two years) and Brandon Morrow (10-7, 4.49 ERA) will have to pick up the slack.

Kyle Drabek, Brett Cecil, Jesse Litsch and Marc Rzepczynski also figure to contribute to the starting rotation.

There are no stars in the bullpen, but it appears to be a serviceable bunch that should help this team avoid the AL East basement. Shawn Camp enters spring as the likely setup guy, while hurler Jason Frasor figures on being the closer. Jesse Carlson will be a lefty specialist, while Casey Janssen appears slotted for long relief.

Season outlook

Toronto will be hard pressed to match last year’s win total behind a younger and cheaper lineup. The Blue Jays are expected to go through some growing pains this season that could pay dividends down the road. Playing against the big three teams in the AL East is never easy, but this team will finish ahead of Baltimore once again and retain their usual fourth-place slot.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting: 2011 Cleveland Indians preview

Oddsmakers placed the Cleveland Indians’ win total at a paltry 70½.
Though the Cleveland Indians had multiple holes to fill from last season’s miserable 69-93 ledger, the only thing the club did in the offseason was to sign 36-year-old infielder Orlando Cabrera.

Cabrera, who will be playing for his seventh team in the last 14 seasons, spent the 2010 campaign with the Cincinnati Reds where he hit .263 with 33 doubles, four homers and 42 RBI in 123 games.

The native of Columbia led the Reds with 119 starts at shortstop, hit .326 against left-handed pitching and batted .306 in the second half of the season.

The lack of moves, as well as some health issues, were all oddsmakers needed to know when they set Cleveland’s future books prices and the club’s over/under’ win total.

Pete Korner, who distributes the betting line to the majority of Nevada sports books as owner of the Sports Club, has assigned the Indians an over/under win total of 70 ½. That’s the fewest wins of any team not named the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Korner also made Cleveland a 200/1 long shot to capture the World Series, 100/1 to take the AL pennant and 30/1 to win the AL Central crown.

Cleveland’s health issues involve Grady Sizemore, Carlos Santana and Travis Hafner.

Sizemore was hobbled by an elbow injury two years ago, and the three-time all-star centerfielder missed most of last season after having surgery on his left knee. The 28-year-old managed just 128 at-bats in 33 games and hit .211.

Hafner hasn’t played a full season since 2007 due to a shoulder injury. The big lefty’s days as a feared power hitter have passed. He swatted just 13 round trippers with 50 RBI last season in 396 at bats encompassing just 118 games.

Santana looked like a rising star during the first two months of the 2010 campaign, but he injured his knee during a home-plate collision and had season-ending surgery. The 24-year-old finished with six homers, 22 RBI and a .260 batting average in 46 games.

The pitching staff is frighteningly thin after Fausto Carmona, who is coming off his best season since 2007. Though the hard-throwing righty went just 13-14, he posted a respectable 3.77 ERA and had four complete games.

Chris Perez stepped up last season and provided the team with a fairly reliable closer. The 6-foot-4, 240-pound right-hander converted 23 saves in 27 opportunities, had a nifty 1.71 ERA and fanned 61 batters in 63 innings.

The schedule

Cleveland went 18-31 during the first two months of the 2010 campaign. They could improve right out of the gate a bit this season by playing 27 home games in April and May. Unfortunately, the Tribe must make two trips to the West Coast during the first two months, including playing the Angels twice in Anaheim.

Interleague competition will include home games against the Reds, Pirates and Rockies and road outings versus San Francisco, Arizona and Cincinnati.

The statistics

The Indians were a dismal 5-13 against NL competition last year. They were 38-43 at home, 31-50 on the road, 18-28 versus southpaw starters, 23-21 in one-run games and 6-6 in extra innings.

The prediction

Things might get even worse for the Tribe if they can’t stay out of the trainer’s room. That might mean a trip to the AL Central basement with fewer wins than they accumulated last year.

[StarDust Bum]

AL Pitching Rotations

March 2, 2011


With pitchers and catchers reporting for spring training this month, Major League Baseball is right around the corner. From the betting perspective, it's time to get back on the diamond and prepare for the 2011 season as football is now in the rear-view mirror. Let's take a look at all 14 starting rotations in the American League and what to expect for this season.

1) Oakland

Trevor Cahill (18-8, 2.97 ERA)
Gio Gonzalez (15-9, 3.23 ERA)
Dallas Braden (11-14, 3.50 ERA)
Brett Anderson (7-6, 2.80 ERA)
Rich Harden (5-5, 5.58 ERA)

Skinny: Even though the A's were not a playoff team, Oakland led the American League in ERA at 3.56, while Cahill and Gonzalez each had career seasons. Braden made news with his perfect game against the Rays in early May, but ultimately went 7-12 in his final 23 starts of the season. Anderson finished the season strong with a 4-0 mark in six outings, while the return of Harden to the Oakland rotation will give the A's some solid experience on the back-end.

2) Boston

Jon Lester (19-9, 3.25 ERA)
Clay Buchholz (17-7, 2.33 ERA)
Josh Beckett (6-6, 5.78 ERA)
John Lackey (14-11, 4.40 ERA)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (9-6, 4.69 ERA)

Skinny: The Red Sox look to be the team to beat in the American League this season thanks to Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez joining the lineup. However, the rotation is still loaded with Lester as the ace and the emergence of Buchholz in 2010. Lackey wasn't sharp in his first season with the Red Sox, but he started with nine wins in his first 12 decisions. The key is if Beckett can return to elite status after a back injury derailed his numbers, even though the former World Series MVP allowed 24 earned runs in five starts against the Yankees.

3) Minnesota

Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA)
Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75 ERA)
Scott Baker (12-9, 4.49 ERA)
Kevin Slowey (13-6, 4.45 ERA)
Nick Blackburn (10-12, 5.42 ERA)

Skinny: The staff's home ERA improved by nearly a run with the move from the Metrodome (4.49) to Target Field (3.53), as the Twins wrapped up their second straight division title. Pavano proved to be the backbone of the staff in his first full season with Minnesota, while Liriano is the southpaw to turn to as long as he stays healthy. Baker, Slowey, and Blackburn's numbers at home picked up with the move outdoors, as the offense helped provided plenty of run support for this staff.

4) L.A. Angels

Jered Weaver (13-12, 3.01 ERA)
Dan Haren (12-12, 3.91 ERA)
Ervin Santana (17-10, 3.92 ERA)
Joel Pineiro (10-7, 3.84 ERA)
Scott Kazmir (9-15, 5.94 ERA)

Skinny: The Halos failed to win the AL West for the first time since 2006, but that was more with the offense struggling to score (883 runs in '09, 681 in '10) after Vladimir Guerrero went to Texas and Kendry Morales tore his ACL celebrating a grand slam. Weaver lost a career-high 12 games, but led the AL in strikeouts with 233. Santana won a career-best 17 games, while Haren went 4-0 in his final eight starts after struggling through the first month following his trade from Arizona.

5) Chicago

Mark Buehrle (13-13, 4.28 ERA)
Gavin Floyd (10-13, 4.08 ERA)
John Danks (15-11, 3.72 ERA)
Edwin Jackson (10-12, 4.47 ERA)
Jake Peavy (7-6, 4.63 ERA)

Skinny: The White Sox own potentially one of the more formidable rotations in the American League, but Chicago needs more consistency from the back-end. Jackson's numbers improved following his trade from Arizona as he won four of six decisions with Chicago. Peavy is recovering from a right shoulder injury suffered last July and hopes to ready for Opening Day. Danks was the best pitcher from June 10 to August 10 with an 8-3 record in 12 starts, including nine quality outings.

6) Tampa Bay

David Price (19-6, 2.72 ERA)
James Shields (13-15, 5.18 ERA)
Wade Davis (12-10, 4.07 ERA)
Jeff Niemann (12-8, 4.39 ERA)
Jeremy Hellickson (4-0, 3.47 ERA)

Skinny: The Rays lost Matt Garza to the Cubs, but still own one of the great young arms in the AL with Price's breakout season of 2010. Tampa Bay won 24 of Price's 34 starts, including a 12-4 mark on the road. Shields ranked in the bottom 10 of AL starting pitchers in money (-800), his second straight season finishing below .500 since a 14-8 record in the pennant-winning season of 2008. Keep an eye on Hellickson, who won his first three games as a starter prior to his move to the bullpen over the last two months.

7) Texas

C.J. Wilson (15-8, 3.35 ERA)
Colby Lewis (12-13, 3.72 ERA)
Tommy Hunter (13-4, 3.73 ERA)
Derek Holland (3-4, 4.08 ERA)
Brandon Webb (22-7, 3.30 ERA in '08)

Skinny: The only World Series appearance in Rangers' franchise history was jump-started by the incredible playoff showing by Cliff Lee. With the southpaw off to Philadelphia, the Rangers will count on another lefty to lift them in Wilson, who paced the staff with 15 victories. Wilson turned into the most profitable pitcher in the AL by clearing 12.5 units and a 24-9 team record when he took the mound. Lewis and Hunter proved their worth with solid seasons, while the acquisition of Webb gives the Rangers depth at the back-end as long as the former Cy Young Award winner remains healthy.

8) Seattle

Felix Hernandez (13-12, 2.27 ERA)
Jason Vargas (9-12, 3.78 ERA)
Doug Fister (6-14, 4.11 ERA)
Erik Bedard (5-3, 2.82 ERA in '09)
Lucas French (5-7, 4.83 ERA)

Skinny: Similarly to the Rangers, the Mariners' staff was boosted by Lee's early-season success. Hernandez held down the fort despite a horrific offense, as King Felix claimed his first career Cy Young Award while leading the AL in innings pitched (249.2) and ERA (2.27). There was very little to count on past Hernandez, as Vargas lost his final seven decisions after a 9-5 start. Bedard is working toward a spot in the rotation after missing last season following shoulder surgery. Seattle was the biggest money-burning team in baseball by dropping nearly 37 units, including a 17-40 division record.


CC Sabathia leads the Yankees' staff entering his third season in the Bronx. (Getty Images)
9) N.Y. Yankees

CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA)
Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA)
A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA)
Ivan Nova (1-2, 4.50 ERA)
Sergio Mitre (0-3, 3.33 ERA)

Skinny: The Yankees spent a ton of money on pitching two years ago with the signings of Sabathia and Burnett. Sabathia remains an elite pitcher after winning at least 20 games for the first time in his career. Burnett was the worst starting pitcher to back in all of baseball last season with a 13-20 team record, while losing 15.6 units. Hughes turned into a strong number two starter with a career-high 18 victories, but the loss of Andy Pettitte to retirement hurts the Yankees in October.

10) Toronto

Ricky Romero (14-9, 3.73 ERA)
Brett Cecil (15-7, 4.22 ERA)
Brandon Morrow (10-7, 4.49 ERA)
Kyle Drabek (0-3, 4.76 ERA)
Jesse Litsch (1-5, 5.79 ERA)

Skinny:The Blue Jays held their own last season despite the loss of Roy Halladay to the Phillies. Southpaws Romero and Cecil combined to win 29 games, while Cecil cleared nearly 11 units for bettors. Morrow had a decent season in his first as a starter, as the former Mariner struck out a career-best 17 in a one-hit shutout of the Rays in early August. There are hopes that Drabek can step up this season after losing all three of his starts last season, while allowing three earned runs in each outing.

11) Detroit

Justin Verlander (18-9, 3.37 ERA)
Max Scherzer (12-11, 3.50 ERA)
Rick Porcello (10-12, 4.92 ERA)
Brad Penny (3-4, 3.23 ERA)
Phil Coke (7-5, 3.62 ERA)

Skinny: Verlander paced the staff with a 12-3 record at Comerica Park, while going 9-1 during matinee action in 2010. There wasn't a reliable number two in this rotation, as Scherzer went through up-and-down season as the Tigers won only four of his 16 road starts. Porcello spent some time in Triple-A Toledo trying to recapture the magic of his rookie season (14-9, 3.96 ERA), while Penny will pitch for his fifth team since 2008 as the veteran recovers from back injury suffered last season.

12) Cleveland

Fausto Carmona (13-14, 3.77 ERA)
Justin Masterson (6-13, 4.70 ERA)
Mitch Talbot (10-13, 4.41 ERA)
Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 3.83 ERA)
Josh Tomlin (6-4, 4.56 ERA)

Skinny: The Indians aren't expected to do much in a top-heavy AL Central, but Carmona leads this rotation after picking up the most wins in a season since 2007 (19). Masterson owned a solid 3.28 ERA at Progressive Field, while this translated to a 3-5 record at home. Talbot started strong in his rookie season, but only won two of his final nine outings. Carrasco put together quality starts in seven of eight trips to the mound, while delivering at least six innings each time out.

13) Baltimore

Jeremy Guthrie (11-14, 3.83 ERA)
Brian Matusz (10-12, 4.30 ERA)
Justin Duchscherer (2-1, 2.89 ERA)
Chris Tillman (2-5, 5.87 ERA)
Jake Arrieta (6-6, 4.66 ERA)

Skinny: The O's made several key acquisitions to bolster their lineup (Derrek Lee, Vladimir Guerrero, and Mark Reynolds), but the pitching has to improve in the difficult AL East. Guthrie finished with a respectable ERA despite 10 starts against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. Baltimore won 11 of Matusz's final 12 starts of the season, while cashing the 'under' in his last eight outings. Duchscherer came over from Oakland as the two-time All-Star recovers from an elbow injury suffered early last season. Arrieta beat the Yankees twice last season, while also knock off World Series participants San Francisco and Texas on the road.

14) Kansas City

Jeff Francis (4-6, 5.00 ERA)
Luke Hochevar (6-6, 4.81 ERA)
Bruce Chen (12-7, 4.17 ERA)
Kyle Davies (8-12, 5.34 ERA)
Vin Mazzaro (6-8, 4.27 ERA)

Skinny: The Royals owned the worst pitching staff in the AL despite former Cy Young winner Zack Greinke anchoring the staff. Greinke is now in Milwaukee, as the Royals look to re-tool with ex-Rockies' southpaw Jeff Francis. The Vancouver native delivered just three quality starts in his final 11 outings in Colorado, while trying to find the magic of 2007 when he helped lead the Rockies to the World Series. Hochevar, the top selection of the 2006 draft, pitched well the first two months of the season before a strained right elbow derailed his 2010 campaign. Chen finally found a home after bouncing around for most of his career by winning seven of his last nine decisions over August and September.

[StarDust Bum]

NL Pitching Rotations

February 14, 2011


1) Philadelphia

Roy Halladay (21-10, 2.44 ERA)
Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.18 ERA)
Cole Hamels (12-11, 3.06 ERA)
Roy Oswalt (13-13, 2.76 ERA)
Joe Blanton (9-6, 4.82 ERA)

Skinny: It's tough to find a staff more loaded than this one in all of baseball following the signing of Lee in the offseason. Halladay dominated in his first season with Philadelphia, while Oswalt pitched well after coming over from the Astros in a mid-season trade. The rotation is balanced with two stud right-handers and two elite southpaws which will make for plenty of big numbers to lay with the Phillies.

2) San Francisco

Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43 ERA)
Matt Cain (13-11, 3.14 ERA)
Jonathan Sanchez (13-9, 3.07 ERA)
Madison Bumgarner (7-6, 3.00 ERA)
Barry Zito (9-14, 4.15 ERA)

Skinny: The Giants stunned the baseball world with their impressive run to a World Series title. It wasn't the offense that carried San Francisco to a championship, instead Lincecum picked up two wins in the Fall Classic to help the Giants knock off the Rangers. Bumgarner pitched well over the final three months, while the Giants combined for a 25-12 mark when Cain and Sanchez took the mound at AT&T Park.

3) St. Louis

Chris Carpenter (16-9, 3.22 ERA)
Adam Wainwright (20-11, 2.42 ERA)
Jaime Garcia (13-8, 2.70 ERA)
Jake Westbrook (10-11, 4.22 ERA)
Kyle Lohse (4-8, 6.55 ERA)

Skinny: The three-headed monster of Carpenter, Wainwright, and Garcia dominated despite the Cardinals being unable to qualify for the playoffs. Wainwright struggled down the stretch, but compiled a 1.78 ERA in 16 home starts (12-4). The Cards went 19-6 in Carpenter's starts the first four months of the season, while floundering the final two months with a 3-7 ledger. Garcia cashed plenty of 'unders' in his first 13 starts with 12 'unders,' but that number tapered with nine 'overs' in the southpaw's last 15 outings.

4) San Diego

Mat Latos (14-10, 2.92 ERA)
Clayton Richard (14-9, 3.75 ERA)
Tim Stauffer (6-5, 1.85 ERA)
Aaron Harang (6-7, 5.32 ERA)
Dustin Moseley (4-4, 4.96 ERA)

Skinny: Pitching at spacious Petco Park definitely helps lower ERA's around the league as San Diego cashed in until late-season meltdown. Latos turned into one the season's big surprises with the Padres winning 14 of his first 19 starts prior to a 1-7 finish the final five weeks. Richard performed his best under the lights with an 11-3 mark in night starts, while Stauffer closed the season with six straight 'unders.' Former Red Aaron Harang returns to his native San Diego trying to salvage his career after falling out of favor in Cincinnati.

5) Florida

Josh Johnson (11-6, 2.30 ERA)
Ricky Nolasco (14-9, 4.51 ERA)
Javier Vazquez (10-10, 5.32 ERA)
Anibal Sanchez (13-12, 3.55 ERA)
Chris Volstad (12-9, 4.58 ERA)

Skinny: The Marlins were paced by Johnson and Nolasco, despite a bullpen that gave away a ton of leads last season. Johnson hung around the Cy Young race until September thanks to an NL-best 2.30 ERA, while posting 19 straight quality starts from mid-April through the end of July. Vazquez should see success back in the NL after struggling with the Yankees last season, while Sanchez cashed eight of nine 'unders' in matinee action.

6) Atlanta

Tim Hudson (17-9, 2.83 ERA)
Tommy Hanson (10-11, 3.33 ERA)
Derek Lowe (16-12, 4.00 ERA)
Jair Jurrjens (7-6, 4.64 ERA)
Mike Minor (3-2, 5.98 ERA)

Skinny: The Braves led the NL East for a majority of the season, but settled for a Wild Card berth in Bobby Cox's final season as manager. Hudson turned in a fantastic season, including an 11-5 mark at Turner Field. Jurrjens suffered through a groin injury after the first month, but went 7-1 from late June through early September. Lowe and Hanson each saw ups and downs, as both right-handers are expected to deliver plenty of wins, but beware laying big numbers with them.

7) Cincinnati

Johnny Cueto (12-7, 3.64 ERA)
Edinson Volquez (4-3, 4.31 ERA)
Bronson Arroyo (17-10, 3.88 ERA)
Homer Bailey (4-3, 4.46 ERA)
Travis Wood (5-4, 3.51 ERA)

Skinny: The Reds shocked many with its ascent to the top of the NL Central with a solid lineup that led the National League in runs (790). Cincinnati's rotation took care of business against division opponents as the Reds went 49-30 against NL Central foes. The Reds won 11 of Cueto's first 16 starts, but the right-hander finished 0-4 in his final seven outings of the season. Arroyo is an innings-eater by delivering over 200 innings for the seventh straight season, while going 9-5 in his 14 starts against division opponents.

8) Milwaukee

Zack Greinke (10-14, 4.17 ERA)
Yovani Gallardo (14-7, 3.84 ERA)
Shaun Marcum (13-8, 3.64 ERA)
Randy Wolf (13-12, 4.17 ERA)
Chris Narveson (12-9, 4.99 ERA)

Skinny: The biggest problem with the Brew Crew has been its pitching as the lineup delivers yearly. Milwaukee made major upgrades to its rotation with the acquisitions of Greinke and Marcum. Greinke struggled last season after winning the Cy Young Award in 2009 with the Royals. Things will ease up for Marcum now that he is out of the AL East, as the former Blue Jay went 2-8 against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays in 2010. After Greinke's pickup, the pressure eases off of both Gallardo and Wolf, as the two combined for a 15-8 record away from Miller Park.


Carlos Zambrano tries to bring the Cubs back to the postseason. (Getty Images)
9) Chicago

Ryan Dempster (15-12, 3.85 ERA)
Matt Garza (15-10, 3.91 ERA)
Carlos Zambrano (11-6, 3.33 ERA)
Randy Wells (8-14, 4.26 ERA)
Carlos Silva (10-6, 4.22 ERA)

Skinny: Following a disastrous 75-87 season, the Cubs retained their pitching staff to go along with the acquisition of Garza from Tampa Bay. The right-hander's numbers should improve by going to the NL Central, while Zambrano concluded the season at 8-0 in his last 11 starts after his mid-season meltdown. Dempster had an uncharacteristically mediocre record at Wrigley Field (5-7), but pitched significantly better on the highway (10-5). Silva turned into one of the better pickups for the Cubs as he started 8-0 in his first 10 outings.

10) Los Angeles

Clayton Kershaw (13-10, 2.91 ERA)
Chad Billingsley (12-11, 3.57 ERA)
Ted Lilly (10-12, 3.62 ERA)
Hiroki Kuroda (11-13, 3.39 ERA)
Jon Garland (14-12, 3.47 ERA)

Skinny: The Dodgers struggled with producing runs at times last season, as Kershaw was the victim of poor run support by receiving two runs or less on 11 occasions. The midseason trade for Lilly from Chicago helped improve the numbers for the southpaw as the former Cub went 7-4 in Dodger blue. Billingsley and Kuroda compiled solid ERA's, but that didn't translate into as many wins as expected.

11) Colorado

Ubaldo Jimenez (19-8, 2.88 ERA)
Jorge De La Rosa (8-7, 4.22 ERA)
Jason Hammel (10-9, 4.81 ERA)
Jhoulys Chacin (9-11, 3.28 ERA)
Aaron Cook (6-8, 5.08 ERA)

Skinny: The Rockies couldn't quite capture the late-season magic of 2007 and 2009 as Colorado fell short of the postseason. Jimenez was the big story of the first two months with a 13-1 mark, while allowing just 13 earned runs in that span. Colorado's rotation couldn't come close to duplicating Jimenez's effort, as Hammel's 7-2 ledger at Coors Field was a positive sign. De La Rosa took a step back after injuries, but compiled a 5-2 mark in matinee starts.

12) Houston

Wandy Rodriguez (11-12, 3.60 ERA)
Brett Myers (14-8, 3.14 ERA)
J.A. Happ (6-4, 3.60 ERA)
Bud Norris (9-10, 4.92 ERA)
Nelson Figueroa (5-3, 3.22 ERA)

Skinny: The Astros received a boost from Myers as the ex-Phillies righty put together a perfect 8-0 record and 2.01 ERA at Minute Maid Park. Rodriguez turned in a respectable ERA, but the southpaw failed to win in five September starts. Happ should be a solid addition in his first full season in Houston after a 5-4 mark in 13 starts since his trade from Philadelphia.

13) Arizona

Ian Kennedy (9-10, 3.80 ERA)
Joe Saunders (9-17, 4.47 ERA)
Daniel Hudson (8-2, 2.45 ERA)
Barry Enright (6-7, 3.91 ERA)
Zach Duke (8-15, 5.72 ERA)

Skinny: Believe it or not, the D-Backs have something to build on in 2011 after putting up a 4.81 ERA last season. Hudson emerged as a solid starter following a trade from the White Sox with a 7-1 mark in Arizona. Kennedy's best stretch came from mid-July through the end of August as the D-Backs went 8-2 in his 10 starts in that stretch. Saunders came over in the Dan Haren trade from the Angels, as the southpaw struggled in the NL with a 3-7 record with the Snakes.

14) N.Y. Mets

Michael Pelfrey (15-9, 3.66 ERA)
Jon Niese (9-10, 4.20 ERA)
R.A. Dickey (11-9, 2.84 ERA)
Chris Young (2-0, 0.90 ERA)
Dillon Gee (2-2, 2.18 ERA)

Skinny: The Mets will be without ace Johan Santana until the All-Star Break following shoulder surgery. This makeshift rotation will be led by Pelfrey, who pitched well at Citi Field with a 10-3 record. Dickey's knuckleball baffled hitters through his first seven starts with six victories, while putting up a 1.99 ERA at home. Young looks to contribute after several injury-ridden seasons in San Diego, as this staff overcame injuries to an underachieving lineup in 2010.

15) Washington

Livan Hernandez (10-12, 3.66 ERA)
John Lannan (8-8, 4.65 ERA)
Jason Marquis (2-9, 6.60 ERA)
Jordan Zimmermann (1-2, 4.94 ERA)
Tom Gorzelanny (7-9, 4.07 ERA)

Skinny: The Stephen Strasburg experiment put fans in the stands at Nationals Park for a little bit, but shoulder surgery puts the fireballer on the shelf for 2011. Instead, the Nats will rely on veterans Hernandez and Marquis, who should log plenty of innings if healthy. Gorzelanny is a decent arm to have at the back-end of the rotation, while Lannan was profitable on the road with a 6-3 ledger.

16) Pittsburgh

Paul Maholm (9-15, 5.10 ERA)
Ross Ohlendorf (1-11, 4.07 ERA)
Kevin Correia (10-10, 5.40 ERA)
James McDonald (4-6, 4.02 ERA)
Charlie Morton (2-12, 7.57 ERA)

Skinny: The worst pitching staff in baseball has an uphill battle climb as the Pirates search for relevancy. Maholm was the only starter with at least 160 innings pitched, while cashing seven of nine 'unders' in daytime action. Ohlendorf disappointed after an 11-10 campaign in 2009, as the former Yankee picked up only win, which coincidentally came in a shutout of the Phillies. McDonald was winless on the road, while going 4-2 at PNC Park after getting traded from the Dodgers in July.

[StarDust Bum]

Win Total Outlook

March 2, 2011


A brand new baseball season starts at the end of March, as team win totals have been released at several offshore outfits. To tie up money for six months in this sort of bet can be both rewarding and frustrating at the same time. Rewarding from the standpoint of you can know depending on your wager if you are on pace by the All-Star break. However, it's frustrating to wait until October to cash out with the 162-game slate. Let's take a look at how things concluded last season, while we also look ahead to the 2011 campaign.

2010 Review

A little over half the league finished 'over' their win total from last season with 17 teams cashing 'over' tickets. The surprise clubs that were never in doubt included Atlanta (+5 ½), Cincinnati (+11 ½), San Diego (+18 ½), San Francisco (+9 ½), Texas (+5 ½), and Toronto (+14 ½). Each of those squads didn't make the playoffs in 2009, so there was a definitely a shock element to how all of them finished, even though the Padres and Blue Jays fell short of the postseason in 2010.

To put things in perspective on how playoff teams took a step back in 2010, the Yankees, Red Sox, Rockies, Cardinals, Angels, and Dodgers all finished 'under' their respective win totals after qualifying for the postseason in 2009. The only teams that eclipsed the 'over' were the Twins and Phillies, as Minnesota actually hit the 'over' of 84 ½ with ease by compiling 94 victories.

If you think last-place teams will hold serve again the following season, then that statement is partially true. Baltimore, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh all easily closed 2010 'under' its listed win total, while the Pirates concluded the season with a league-worst 57 victories. The biggest surprise 'under' club came from the North Side of Chicago as the Cubs finished with 75 wins after being listed at 82 ½ last March.

2011 Preview

Several adjustments were made coming into this season, as bettors are wondering who is going to be this season's Cincinnati Reds. Dusty Baker's team has been moved up to 86 ½ wins in a wide-open NL Central, while the Reds are the highest total in baseball's largest division. In fact, the Cubs (85 ½), Brewers (85 ½), and Cardinals (83 ½) are all right there in the unpredictable Central, which has seen three different division champions in the last three seasons.

A couple teams that stick out for a variety of reasons include Colorado (87), Oakland (83 ½), Tampa Bay (87), and Texas (76). The Rockies are known for being great in odd-numbered years recently by clinching Wild Card berths in 2007 (90 wins) and 2009 (92 wins), while coming off an 83-win campaign last season. The number has been jacked for Colorado thanks to San Diego likely taking a step back and the assumption that San Francisco will fall back to Earth. However, to expect Ubaldo Jimenez to duplicate his 15-1 start through the first week of July is a little crazy.

The A's could be the surprise club to win the AL West after closing last season with an 81-81 mark following three consecutive seasons below .500. Oakland owns a solid young rotation that ranked first in quality starts and fourth in ERA overall. Vegas believes that the Rangers will fall back after losing ace Cliff Lee in free agency, as Texas is trying to finish with a winning record for the third straight season since a run from 1989-91.

Tampa Bay has a high total considering the Rays play 36 games against the Red Sox and Yankees, while playing nine interleague games against the Brewers, Reds, and Cardinals. The Rays lost Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Matt Garza in the offseason, while picking up veterans Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez. Even though the sample size is extremely small, the Rays haven't been able to put together consecutive playoff runs. After winning the AL pennant in 2008, Tampa Bay won just 84 games in 2009 thanks to a 1-12 slump to start September.

2011 MLB WIN TOTALS
TEAM '11 TOTAL '10 WINS
ARIZONA 72 65
ATLANTA 88 91
BALTIMORE 76 66
BOSTON 95 89
CHICAGO-A 85.5 88
CHICAGO-N 82 75
CINCINNATI 86.5 91
CLEVELAND 71 69
COLORADO 87 83
DETROIT 83.5 81
FLORIDA 81.5 80
HOUSTON 72.5 76
KANSAS CITY 69.5 67
LOS ANGELES-A 83.5 80
LOS ANGELES-N 83 80
MILWAUKEE 85.5 77
MINNESOTA 86.5 94
NEW YORK-A 91.5 95
NEW YORK-N 77 79
OAKLAND 83.5 81
PHILADELPHIA 97 97
PITTSBURGH 67 57
ST. LOUIS 83.5 86
SAN DIEGO 76 90
SAN FRANCISCO 88 92
SEATTLE 70 61
TAMPA BAY 87 96
TEXAS 76 90
TORONTO 72 85
WASHINGTON 72 69

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting: 2011 Cincinnati Reds preview

Oddsmakers have the Reds slight favorites over the Brewers and Cards.
Let’s get something straight about the defending National League Central Division champion Cincinnati Reds: It was no fluke the Reds won the division going 91-71, never mind that the last time they captured their division was 1995.

Until last season, Cincinnati hadn’t made the playoffs in 15 years. The Reds have the nucleus to change their recent history.

They have good young outfielders, a deep starting staff, a proven closer and a great right side of the infield with second baseman Brandon Phillips and league Most Valuable Player Joey Votto at first base.

Some of their key players, such as Votto and outfielders Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs, are just entering their prime.

It’s no surprise the Reds are favored to win the NL Central again, especially considering St. Louis will be without its best pitcher, Adam Wainwright, for the season and Milwaukee’s top hurler, Zach Greinke, is going to miss his first few starts.

Cincinnati is plus 185 to take the NL Central, according to current odds at Bookmaker.com, which has the Brewers next at plus 190 and the Cardinals at 2/1.

Rarely can you find value in future book odds, but the Reds are a tempting 18/1 to win the World Series. Cincinnati’s regular-season ‘over/under’ total is 86 victories.

The Reds are an up-and-coming potential powerhouse because they have nearly all of their key players back from last season.

The starting pitching rotation has a veteran hub in Bronson Arroyo (17-10 with a 3.88 ERA last year), Johnny Cueto and Edison Volquez, who has shown promise but missed much of last year because of elbow ligament replacement surgery and a 50-game suspension due to using a performance-enhancing substance.

The backend of the rotation has promise, too, with youngsters Homer Bailey, Mike Leake and Travis Wood.

Francisco Cordero is 35, but saved 40 games last year. He has enough left that much-heralded prospect Aroldis Chapman isn’t being counted on this season to compete for the closer position.

It’s a testament, too, about how strong Cincinnati’s starting rotation is that Chapman, who has a 100 mph fastball, is considered a reliever right now.

It’s difficult for Cincinnati’s pitchers to compile fancy statistics because its home field, Great American Ball Park, is one of the most homer-friendly parks in baseball.

The Reds led the league in runs, homers and batting average last year. They went 49-32 at home while going 42-39 on the road.

The 27-year-old Votto led the way emerging as a superstar by leading the NL in slugging and on-base percentage while batting .324 with 37 homers and 113 RBIs.

Phillips was slowed by a broken hand last season, but when healthy he’s good for 30 homers and 30 steals.

Bruce is just 24 and poised for a Votto-type of breakout season after batting .281 with 25 homers and 70 RBIs in 2010. Centerfielder Drew Stubbs needs to boost up his .255 batting average, but smacked 22 homers and stole 30 bases. Leftfielder Jonny Gomes hit 18 homers last year.

The Reds have outfield depth with Chris Heisey and Fred Lewis also in the leftfield rotation.

Cincinnati’s catching is solid with Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan. The question marks are on the left side of the infield where 35-year-old Scott Rolen is a health risk and at shortstop with light-hitting Paul Janish.

Rolen had an outstanding first-half last year finishing with a .285 average, 20 homers and 83 RBIs. The Reds brought in Edgar Renteria to back up Janish. Renteria is past his prime, but still was the World Series MVP for San Francisco last season.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting: 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates preview

Pirates hurlers ranked dead last in the NL in 2010 with a 5.00 ERA.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a long and distinguished history, but unfortunately for them baseball has continued since the early 1990s.

Pittsburgh appeared in the first World Series in 1903, has won five championships culminating in the 1979 title, and has Hall-of-Fame players Roberto Clemente, Ralph Kiner, Willie Stargell and Bill Mazeroski among others to wear the black and gold.

Under baseball’s economic system, the small-market Pirates have struggled greatly and enter this season with an undesirable record. Pittsburgh’s current streak of 18 consecutive losing seasons is the longest streak of any professional sports franchise in North America.

The Pirates have become a farm system for higher profile teams with bigger bank rolls. Anytime Pittsburgh has a valuable commodity, that player is shipped off to a larger market for prospects and the cycle begins again.

So how bleak is the outlook for the 2011 Pirates? The 2010 version picked up the third-most losses in team history, and had their worst winning percentage since the 1954 squad. Pittsburgh bumbled its way to the worst record in baseball at 57-105, finishing 34 games behind Cincinnati in the National League Central standings.

The Pirates enter the season with a league-low win total of 67.5 games. Pittsburgh is the longest shot on the board to win the NL pennant at 250/1, with Washington next on the board at 60/1. The Pirates are 500/1 to win the Fall Classic, with Cleveland and Kansas City the closest long shots at 200/1.

Pittsburgh finished the year with a respectable 40-41 record at PNC Park, while going an embarrassing 17-64 on the road. The Pirates were a great team to fade, losing $2,171 on the money line while the ‘under’ went 78-73-1.

Sunken Ship, No Treasure

New manager Clint Hurdle has an empty cupboard to deal with this year, loaded with the usual prospects that might be good enough for a pennant contender in a year or two. The pitching staff is loaded with, guess what, prospects.

The starting rotation appears to be Paul Maholm, James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf, Scott Olsen and Kevin Correia. Only Maholm (4.48) and Ohlendorf (4.40) have ERA’s under 4.50, but there is hope that McDonald will make a successful transition after spending time in the bullpen.

Speaking of the bullpen, Joel Hanrahan will be the closer, and he struck out 100 batters in just 69 2/3 innings. However, expect him to see limited duty as the team figures to have very few leads late in games. Evan Meek is another hard-throwing right-hander, and he was Pittsburgh’s lone All-Star representative last year.

An Offensive Offense

There is talent on the offensive side of the ball, but it’s young and will experience some growing pains. Outfielder Jose Tabata is just 21 years old, but was a shining star in the New York Yankees farm system. Tabata won’t overwhelm you with power, but figures to hit for average, steal some bases and provide solid defense.

Second-baseman Neil Walker finally appears to be reaching his potential after being a first-round pick in 2004, hitting .296 with 12 home runs and 66 RBIs after getting called up from Triple-A Indianapolis. Third baseman Pedro Alvarez will have to cut down on his strikeouts (119 strikeouts in 347 at bats), while first baseman Lyle Overbay hits for average and can connect on 15-20 homers a year.

Outlook

Fans in the Steel City will have a couple of things to look forward to the next couple of months. Hopefully, the Penguins will get Sidney Crosby back and the team can make another run at a Stanley Cup title.

Pittsburgh fans are also hopeful that the National Football League lockout doesn’t extend very long, and that the Steelers can get back to the Super Bowl. There is little hope for the Pirates this year or in the immediate future.