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**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2010, 08:20 PM

Games of the Year, Part II

Picking up where we left off in our prior discussion, we move to Week 5 of the college football regular season. The Red River Rivalry will take center stage on this first weekend of October, with the Golden Nugget making Oklahoma vs. Texas a pick ‘em game.

The Longhorns lost four-year starting QB Colt McCoy, but we saw Garrett Gilbert grow up before our eyes in last year’s BCS Championship Game vs. Alabama. Gilbert was unexpectedly thrown in the fire early in the first quarter and predictably, he looked like a deer in headlights against the nation’s fiercest defense.

By the time he was intercepted on a shovel pass that Marcell Dareus returned for a touchdown on the last play of the first half to give ‘Bama a 24-6 lead at halftime, the game seemed over. Find me the person that gave Texas a chance to rally and win outright against the Crimson Tide with Gilbert at the wheel with an 18-point deficit, and I’ll point that same person to a great beachfront property I’ve been sitting on in Kansas.

In other words, Mack Brown’s team had no shot in the second half. In fact, oddsmakers made ‘Bama a nine-point favorite in the second half when it was already up by 18. That equated to the Tide laying 27 points for the game.

Nevertheless, Gilbert found Jordan Shipley for a 44-yard scoring strike to cut the deficit to 24-13 late in the third quarter. With 6:15 remaining, Gilbert connected with Shipley again for a 28-yard touchdown pass. Next, he zipped a pass to Dan Buckner for the two-point conversion and all of a sudden, ‘Bama’s seemingly insurmountable lead had been trimmed to 24-21 with an eternity left in the final stanza. All of a sudden, a true freshman QB was on the cusp of leading the most improbable comeback in BCS Championship Game history.

Alas, it was not to be. The rally fell short. However, Brown found himself his QB of the future and you know the experience will make Gilbert a lot better player in 2010 when he becomes the starter.

Oklahoma’s Landry Jones was also put in the lineup prematurely in 2009. As a redshirt freshman, he suddenly became the starter when Sam Bradford went down in a Week 1 loss to BYU. Jones acquitted himself fairly well, throwing for 3,198 yards with a 26/14 touchdown-interception ratio.

Nick Saban’s team will play host to Florida at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Oct. 2. The Nugget opened the Tide as a three-point home favorite against the Gators, who haven’t been to Tuscaloosa since getting run out of the building by a 31-3 count in 2005. Unfortunately, most refer to that contest as “The Prothro Game” because ‘Bama’s dynamic wide receiver and punt returner sustained a grotesque career-ending injury.

UF will be looking to avenge a 32-13 loss to Alabama in the 2009 SEC Championship Game at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. Urban Meyer’s team returns six starters on offense and five on defense. The head coach will turn to John Brantley as his new signal caller during the sixth season of his tenure in Gainesville. Brantley, a third-generation Gator who has patiently waited his turn, finds himself in a similar position as Tee Martin did at Tennessee 11 years ago.

Remember, Martin took over for Peyton Manning and promptly led the Vols to an unbeaten season and national title. Brantley, a fourth-year junior, could’ve been a starter at just about every other school in America last season. He’ll be surrounded by speed galore, including RB Jeff Demps, utility man Chris Rainey and WR Deonte Thompson.

Alabama has eight starters back on offense but just two on defense. Nevertheless, bettors shouldn’t look at Saban’s defense as a ‘rebuilding’ unit. Dareus is one of the country’s premier defensive linemen and LB Dont’a Hightower is set to return from a knee injury suffered in a 35-7 home win over Arkansas last season.

Other Week 5 matchups include Penn St. at Iowa (-3), Tennessee at LSU (-9), Stanford at Oregon (-6), Ohio St. (-17) at Illinois and FSU (-10) at Virginia.

In Week 6, The Nugget has tabbed Florida as a nine-point home favorite vs. LSU. Georgia is a seven-point home ‘chalk’ vs. Tennessee. On that note, let’s touch on the Vols and Dawgs.

This is a huge season for Mark Richt who, to his credit, has embraced and joked about his ‘hot-seat status’ in recent months. In other words, he’s taken the exact opposite approach taken by Phil Fulmer and Tommy Tuberville when they were abruptly run out of town in Knoxville and Auburn, respectively, in 2008.

Nobody will dispute that Richt’s tenure at UGA has been a roaring success, especially when comparing it to the time spent in Athens by Ray Goff and Jim Donnan (have you noticed how neither coach has been given another job since?). But the Dawgs took a step back last season and didn’t live up to preseason No. 1 expectations in 2008.

Georgia AD Damon Evans expressed ‘concerns’ about the football program midway through the 2009 campaign, and let’s not forget that Richt was Vince Dooley’s hire, not Evans’s. This space thinks Richt needs to be in the SEC East hunt and cannot get blown out by Florida in order to keep his job.

To be in the SEC East mix, redshirt freshman QB Aaron Murray is going to have to be ‘as advertised.’ Murray, a product of Tampa Plant High School who was one of the most sought-after recruits in the class of 2009, will have one of the nation’s top WRs to look for in A.J. Green. He’ll also have an outstanding tight end in Orson Charles.

Most importantly, the Dawgs will have one of the nation’s best offensive lines. As usual, UGA will also have a slew of capable RBs, including sophomore Washaun Ealey, who averaged 5.7 yards per carry last season as a true freshman.

Tennessee only has nine starters returning (3 offense, 6 defense), is starting over with a new head coach again, needs to find a quarterback and a go-to RB and lost its four leading tacklers. Therefore, the fans in Knoxville, not known for their patience, had better find some because it could be a long year for Derek Dooley and Co.

The FSU-Miami rivalry certainly doesn’t have the luster or the national-championship implications that it once did, but it could play a major role in who wins the ACC in 2010. The Golden Nugget has the ‘Canes installed as four-point home favorites against the Seminoles.

Jimbo Fisher’s first team has nine starters coming back on offense and six on defense. The key is the health of QB Christian Ponder, who sustained a season-ending shoulder injury in a 40-24 loss at Clemson in 2009. Before Ponder went down, he was completing 68.8 percent of his passes with a 14/7 touchdown-interception ratio.

Junior QB Jacory Harris enjoyed some outstanding early-season moments, leading UM to a thrilling 38-34 come-from behind win over the ‘Noles in Tallahassee. He also helped the ‘Canes drill Ga. Tech and upset Oklahoma en route to a 5-1 start. However, things went south in ACC play and Harris finished the season with 17 interceptions. His consistency must improve for Randy Shannon’s squad to be factor in the ACC race.

Other Week 6 showdowns include Michigan St. at Michigan (-3), UCLA at California (-6), Pitt at Notre Dame (-3), Arkansas (-7) vs. Texas A&M and Alabama (-7.5) at South Carolina.

The Tide could be in a dangerous letdown situation when it faces the Gamecocks, who have an open date the previous week. On the other hand, ‘Bama will be coming off a physical home game vs. Florida. Steve Spurrier’s squad gave Saban’s bunch fits last year, taking the money in a 20-6 loss at Bryant-Denny that was much closer than the final score indicated. South Carolina comfortably covered as an 18 ½-point road underdog.

In Week 7, Arkansas is a three-point road favorite at Auburn. This number caught me by surprise and I would expect the Tigers to be short ‘chalk’ when this game rolls around. The Razorbacks seem to be getting a lot of respect from the oddsmakers in this spot and others. Perhaps they are deserving of such reverence, but this space senses that the Hogs are getting the preseason ink that was lauded upon Ole Miss last year.

Now to be clear, as a Rebel friend of mine (Will Haraway) pointed out last week, Houston Nutt’s team did win nine games last season. But they didn’t meet the lofty expectations that many preseason publications had imposed on them. Bobby Petrino’s team isn’t getting top-10 mentions, but I still need to see it before becoming a believer in the Hogs in 2010.

Nebraska will be looking for revenge when it hosts Texas as a 2 ½-point home favorite. With the Cornhuskers’ looming exit to the Big Ten, this game will take on added significance. Bo Pelini’s team got hosed in the Big 12 Championship Game last season, but it responded by trouncing Arizona 33-0 in the Holiday Bowl.

Nebraska brings back nine starters on offense and six on ‘D.’ After going 10-4 in 2009, expectations are extremely high in Lincoln. All of the ‘Huskers’ skill players are returning, including RB Roy Helu, who rushed for nearly 1,200 yards and scored 10 touchdowns.

Other Week 7 games include Boston College at FSU (-6), Iowa (-3) at Michigan, Missouri at Texas A&M (-4) and Ohio St. (-3) at Wisconsin.

North Carolina will be looking for its fourth consecutive win over Miami when it comes to South Florida in Week 8. The Golden Nugget has tabbed the ‘Canes as two-point home favorites. UNC, which finished 8-5 after dropping a 19-17 decision against Pitt in the Meineke Car Care Bowl, returns 10 starters on offense and nine on defense.

Also in Week 8, Auburn is a one-point home favorite vs. LSU, while Arkansas is favored by 13 against Ole Miss. Alabama is an eight-point road ‘chalk’ for its trip to Neyland Stadium to face the Vols.

In the Big Ten, Iowa is a three-point favorite vs. Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes are going to be strong once again after an 11-2 campaign that was capped with a 24-14 win over Ga. Tech in the Orange Bowl. QB Ricky Stanzi needs to improve on his mediocre 17/15 TD-INT ratio, and he has no excuse not to do so with all of his skill players back in the mix.

Moving to Week 9, the action starts on Thursday when FSU plays at North Carolina St. Raleigh has been a house of horrors for the ‘Noles, especially on Thursday nights. They did escape with a 26-17 comeback victory two years ago, but still failed to cover as 10-point road favorites. On a Thursday in ’06, the Wolfpack beat FSU 24-20 as a 9 ½-point home underdog.

ESPN’s Friday game could be a crucial Big East showdown. West Va. has been made a one-point road favorite at UConn. The Mountaineers, who went 9-4 last year, have seven starters back on offense and nine on defense. The only big question mark is the QB position, where Geno Smith will take over for the departed Jarrett Brown. Smith will be blessed with a pair of big-time weapons in RB Noel Devine and WR Jock Sanders.

The Huskies could be a team to watch. They thumped South Carolina at the PapaJohns.com Bowl in Birmingham to finish ’09 with an 8-5 ledger. Randy Edsall’s team brings back eight starters on each side of the ball.

We mentioned the importance of Georgia’s trip to Jacksonville earlier and it will come in Week 9. The Nugget has installed the Gators as six-point favorites. The Dawgs have lost 17 of their 20 head-to-head meetings against their bitter border rivals to the south.

Other Week 9 matchups are Texas Tech at Texas A&M (pick ‘em), Auburn at Ole Miss (pick ‘em), Michigan St. at Iowa (-7.5), Stanford at Washington (-3), Tennessee at South Carolina (-4) and Oklahoma St. (-1) at Kansas St.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2010, 08:21 PM

Games of the Year, Part III

In Part III of our Games of the Year discussion, we move to the first weekend of November. This is Week 10, starting with a crucial ACC contest between Virginia Tech and Ga. Tech. The Golden Nugget opened the Hokies as four-point home favorites for this Thursday night affair.

The Yellow Jackets have won three of their last four head-to-head meetings against Va. Tech both straight up and against the spread. They won by a 28-23 count in last season’s encounter as 3 ½-point home underdogs.

Paul Johnson’s team lost its leading rusher (Jonathan Dwyer), leading receiver (Demaryius Thomas) and best pass rusher (Derrick Morgan), but it otherwise returns most of its nucleus. The Jackets have six starters on offense and eight on defense coming back. Senior quarterback Josh Nesbitt, who had a 10/5 touchdown-interception ratio and rushed for more than 1,000 net yards and 18 TDs, is back to lead Johnson’s flexbone offense.

The SEC West might be decided on Nov. 6 in Baton Rouge. That’s where Alabama is currently listed as a four-point road favorite at LSU. The Tigers gave ‘Bama fits last year before the Crimson Tide pulled out a fortunate cover in a 24-15 victory as a 7 ½-point home ‘chalk.’

Junior QB Jordan Jefferson is going to be the key for Les Miles, who is going into an extremely important season in Baton Rouge. The Michigan job might be open yet again and unlike when Miles had the Bayou Bengals en route to a national title last time around, his exit from LSU might be a mutual thought process if this year doesn’t produce a 10-win campaign.

Only four starters are back on defense, but CB Patrick Peterson is one of the best cover corners in the country. The offense lost bruising RB Charles Scott and go-to WR Brandon LaFell, but Jefferson has two of the most athletic weapons in the SEC in sophomores Russell Sheppard and Rueben Randle.

If Arkansas and South Carolina are in the mix in their respective division races come Nov. 6, then their showdown at Williams-Brice Stadium will be of major importance. The Nugget has made the Razorbacks 2 ½-point road favorites.

We touched on Bobby Petrino’s squad perhaps being a tad overrated in Part II, so let’s talk more about the Gamecocks now. As mentioned in Part I, they need an instant contribution from true freshman RB Marcus Lattimore, who many recruitniks called the nation's premier prep back from the 2010 class.

The defense figures to be excellent again. Seven starters are back on this side of the ball, including All-American candidates Chris Culliver and Stephon Gilmore, who help give this team what’s most likely the SEC’s best secondary.

Other Week 10 games include TCU (-7) at Utah, Oklahoma (-7 ½) at Texas A&M and North Carolina (-1) at FSU. The Horned Frogs, who went 12-1 last season but saw their unbeaten ledger ruined by Boise St. at the Fiesta Bowl, are a darkhorse national-title contender. They bring back nine starters on offense and seven on defense.

Gary Patterson’s team has all of its skill players returning with the exception of RB Joseph Turner, but Matthew Tucker and Ed Wesley both averaged more than six yards per carry and combined for 12 rushing touchdowns in 2009. I’m personally not very high on QB Andy Dalton, but the senior signal caller had solid numbers last year with a 23/8 touchdown-interception ratio.

The UNC-FSU game could be huge, but I certainly agree with The Nugget making the Tar Heels the short road ‘chalk.’ I have serious doubts about the ‘Noles in Jimbo Fisher’s first year, but the ACC’s Atlantic Division looks extremely weak. Therefore, FSU should be in contention when Butch Davis’s squad comes to Doak Campbell Stadium. The ‘Noles will have a couple of extra days of rest since they play at N.C. St. on a Thursday the previous week.

Texas A&M is returning seven starters on offense and nine on defense. Most importantly, senior quarterback Jerrod Johnson is back. Johnson produced brilliant numbers in ’09, throwing for 3,579 yards with a 30/8 TD-INT ratio. In addition, he scrambled for 759 rushing yards and eight more scores.

The Aggies, who are just 10-15 in Mike Sherman’s first two seasons, have got to get better on the defensive side of the ball. They gave up 47 to Arkansas, 36 to Oklahoma St., 62 to Kansas St., 65 to Oklahoma and 49 to Texas. Obviously, that just isn’t going to get it done.

Moving to Week 11, we have UConn hosting Pitt as a four-point home favorite in the Thursday night game. The Panthers will be breaking in a new QB (sophomore Tino Sunseri), but they have a wild-card Heisman candidate in sophomore RB Dion Lewis. As a true frosh, Lewis rushed for 1,799 yards and 17 TDs, averaging 5.5 YPC. Sunseri also has a go-to wideout in junior Jon Baldwin, who had 1,111 receiving yards and eight TD grabs in ’09.

Utah went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan in the season opener in 2008. The Utes will try to pull a similar trick at Notre Dame in Week 11. The Golden Nugget opened the Fighting Irish as a 4 ½-point home favorite.

Kyle Whittingham’s squad is coming off a 10-3 campaign and is bringing back 12 total starters (8 offense, 4 defense). When Utah comes to South Bend, it might be in a letdown situation if it beats TCU at home the previous week.

Notre Dame begins a new era under the leadership of Brian Kelly, who takes over a roster with plenty of talent. And that’s the dumbfounding thing about Charlie Weis’s disastrous tenure – he recruited extremely well and played a soft schedule, yet netted horrible results the last three years.

The Irish, who finished 6-6 last season but didn’t go bowling, have five starters back on offense and nine on defense. Dayne Crist is the heir apparent under center, replacing three-year starter Jimmmy Clausen. Kelly has demonstrated an amazing ability of coaching up QBs, as evidenced by the production of the likes of Ben Mauk, Dustin Grutza, Tony Pike and Zach Collaros during his three-year tenure at Cincinnati.

Other Week 11 games include Ole Miss at Tennessee (-5), Georgia at Auburn (-3), Oregon (-2) at California, Miami at Ga. Tech (-3), Penn St. at Ohio St. (-7) and South Carolina at Florida (-15).

The Nittany Lions will be looking to avenge an embarrassing 24-7 home loss to The Vest’s squad as five-point home favorites. They have eight starters returning on offense and five on defense, but must break in a new QB following the exit of Daryll Clark. That job will fall to sophomore Kevin Newsome, who only saw garbage time under center last season.

The Head Ball Coach will be making his third trip back to The Swamp, a name he gave to one of college football’s premier venues during his glorious (7-for-12 in winning SEC’s) tenure from 1990-2001. In 2006, South Carolina completely outplayed UF, the eventual national champ, but lost a 17-16 decision because the Gators blocked a PAT and a field goal late in the fourth quarter. In ’08, Florida destroyed the ‘Cocks by a 56-6 count in the worst loss of Spurrier’s coaching career.

In Week 12, the marquee matchups are Fresno St. at Boise St. (-20), Va. Tech at Miami (-2), Pitt (-3) at South Florida, Ohio St. (-4) at Iowa and Nebraska (-4 ½) at Texas A&M. I don’t fade the Broncos on the smurf turf, but we should note that Chris Petersen’s team could be looking ahead to a trip to Nevada the next week.

Ohio St.’s trip to Iowa City is an extremely difficult spot for the Bucks, who play PSU the prior week and face arch-rival Michigan the following week. Meanwhile, Iowa is coming back home after back-to-back road contests against Indiana and Northwestern. The Big Ten title, a Rose Bowl invite or a trip to the BCS Championship Game could be on the line for the Hawks and Bucks.

The Hurricanes will be in a huge revenge spot when they host the Hokies, who absolutely destroyed UM by a 31-7 in a driving rainstorm when they collided at Lane Stadium in Blacksburg last season. Frank Beamer’s team has emerged victorious from five of the last seven head-to-head meetings against Miami.

Week 13 features a primetime tilt on Thanksgiving when Texas hosts Texas A&M. The Golden Nugget has tabbed the Longhorns as 14-point home favorites. The Aggies took the cash in a 49-39 loss last year as 21-point home underdogs. They have been known to pull upsets in this rivalry game, including wins in ’07 as 13 ½-point ‘dogs and ’08 as seven-point puppies.

On Friday, we have a tripleheader that could have conference-title implications for each game. The Nugget has Boise St. as a 13-point ‘chalk’ at Nevada, while Alabama is favored by 11 in the Iron Bowl that’ll be played in Tuscaloosa. Finally, the Backyard Brawl between West Va. and Pitt in the Steel City is listed as a pick ‘em.

The highlights of Saturday’s contests include Florida (-7) at FSU, Ga. Tech at Georgia (-4), Michigan at Ohio St. (-13 ½), LSU at Arkansas (-6) and Oklahoma (-13) at Oklahoma St. The Seminoles haven’t tasted a victory against UF since the Swamp Swindle, a controversial 38-34 victory in 2003.

During Urban Meyer’s tenure, Florida is 14-1 against its ‘Big Three’ rivals that include FSU, Georgia and Tennessee. The Gators have beaten the ‘Noles six consecutive times with four of those victories coming by 27 points or more. Hello!

Ga. Tech won in come-from-behind fashion in its last trip to Athens. If Georgia doesn’t have at least eight wins going into this rivalry game, Mark Richt’s job could very much be on the line against the Yellow Jackets.

As for Michigan’s Rich Rodriguez, I think he will have already tasted his pink slip by the time the Wolverines get to The ‘Shoe.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2010, 08:24 PM

Games of the Year - Odds

Week 1

Thursday 9/2/2010
Pittsburgh at Utah (-3.5)
Southern Miss at South Carolina (-14)

Saturday 9/4/2010
Kentucky (-7) at Louisville
Connecticut at Michigan (-3)
Illinois at Missouri (-10) from St. Louis
UCLA (-6) at Kansas State
Colorado (-10) at Colorado State from Denver
Purdue at Notre Dame (-9)
Washington at BYU (-3.5)
Oregon State at TCU (-10.5) from Dallas
LSU at North Carolina (-3) from Atlanta
Cincinnati at Fresno State (PK)
Wisconsin (-23) at UNLV
Monday, 9/6/2010
Boise State (-2.5) at Virginia Tech from Washington D.C.

Week 2

Thursday 9/9/2010
Auburn (-7) at Miss. St

Friday, 9/10/2010
West Virginia (-15) at Marshall

Saturday, 9/11/2010
Stanford at UCLA (-2)
South Florida at Florida (-18)
Miami, Florida at Ohio State (-8)
Florida State at Oklahoma (-10)
Penn State at Alabama (-9.5)
Iowa State at Iowa (-14)
Oregon (-3) at Tennessee
Michigan at Notre Dame (-7)
UNLV at Utah (-20)
BYU (-7) at Air Force
Georgia Tech (-7) at Kansas

Week 3

Thursday 9/16/2010
Cincinnati (-4) at NC State

Friday 9/17/2010
Kansas at Southern Miss (-1)

Saturday 9/18/2010
Georgia Tech at North Carolina (-4.5)
BYU at Florida State (-7)
Arkansas at Georgia (-3)
UNLV at Idaho (-3.5)
Nebraska (-4.5) at Washington
Florida (-9) at Tennessee
Texas (-7) at Texas Tech
Iowa (-2.5 at Arizona
Connecticut (-4) at Temple

Week 4

Thursday 9/23/2010
Miami, Florida at Pittsburgh (-1)

Saturday, 9/25/2010
South Carolina at Auburn (-3.5)
Alabama (-3.5) at Arkansas
California at Arizona (-4)
Oregon State at Boise State (-14)
West Virginia at LSU (-6)
Virginia Tech (-2.5) at Boston College
Nevada at BYU (-6)
UCLA at Texas (-15)
Stanford at Notre Dame (-3)
Temple at Penn State (-17.5)
Oklahoma (-10) at Cincinnati

Week 5

Thursday 9/30/2010
Texas A&M at Oklahoma State (-2)

Friday, 10/1/2010
BYU (-16) at Utah State

Saturday, 10/2/2010
Tennessee at LSU (-9)
Notre Dame at Boston College (-3)
Texas at Oklahoma (PK) from Dallas
Florida at Alabama (-3)
Penn State at Iowa (-3)
Stanford at Oregon (-6)
Nevada at UNLV (-7)
Wisconsin at Michigan State (PK)
Florida State (-10) at Virginia
Ohio State (-17) at Illinois

Week 6

Tuesday, 10/5/2010
Troy at Middle Tennessee (-3)

Thursday, 10/7/2010
Nebraska (-13) at Kansas State

Friday, 10/8/2010
Connecticut at Rutgers (-2)

Saturday, 10/9/2010
UCLA at California (-6)
LSU at Florida (-9)
Tennessee at Georgia (-7)
Michigan St at Michigan (-3)
UNLV at West Virginia (-24)
Florida St at Miami, Florida (-4)
Pittsburgh at Notre Dame (-3)
Temple (-3) at Northern Illinois
Virginia at Georgia Tech (-17)
Arkansas (-7) at Texas A&M from Arlington
Alabama (-7.5) at South Carolina

Week 7

Thursday, 10/14/2010
South Florida at West Virginia (-7.5)

Friday, 10/15/2010
Cincinnati (-9.5) at Louisville

Saturday, 10/16/2010
Arkansas (-3) at Auburn
Boston College at Florida State (-6)
Iowa (-3) at Michigan
Texas at Nebraska (-2.5)
Oregon State at Washington (-4.5)
Ohio State (-3) at Wisconsin
Kansas State at Kansas (-7.5)
BYU at TCU (-10)
Missouri at Texas A&M (-4)
North Carolina (-12) at Virginia
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (-10)

Week 8

Thursday 10/21/2010
UCLA at Oregon (-10)

Saturday, 10/23/2010
LSU at Auburn (-1)
Oklahoma (-7) at Missouri
Wisconsin at Iowa (-3)
North Carolina at Miami, Florida (-2)
Notre Dame (-3) at Navy from Meadowlands
Alabama (-8) at Tennessee
South Florida at Cincinnati (-4)
Mississippi at Arkansas (-13)
Washington at Arizona (-3.5)
Penn State (-10) at Minnesota
Nebraska (-7.5) at Oklahoma St

Week 9

Tuesday, 10/26/2010
Louisiana Tech at Boise State (-28)

Thursday, 10/28/2010
Florida State (-7) at NC State

Friday, 10/29/2010
West Virginia (-1) at Connecticut

Saturday, 10/30/2010
Arizona at UCLA (-3)
Missouri at Nebraska (-10)
California at Oregon State (-4)
Michigan at Penn State (-10)
Miami, Florida (-12) at Virginia
Stanford at Washington (-3)
Tennessee at South Carolina (-4)
Florida (-6) at Georgia from Jacksonville
TCU (-24) at UNLV
Ohio State (-14) at Minnesota
Auburn at Mississippi (PK)
Texas Tech at Texas A&M (PK)
Oklahoma State (-1) at Kansas State
Michigan State at Iowa (-7.5)

Week 10

Thursday, 11/4/2010
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech (-4)

Saturday, 11/6/2010
Arizona at Stanford (-6)
Oregon State at UCLA (-2.5)
North Carolina at Florida State (-1)
Alabama (-4) at LSU
Washington at Oregon (-10)
Wisconsin (-7.5) at Purdue
Arkansas (-2.5) at South Carolina
UNLV at BYU (-24)
TCU (-7) at Utah
Oklahoma (-7.5) at Texas A&M
Texas (-12) at Kansas State
Missouri at Texas Tech (-6)

Week 11

Thursday, 11/11/2010
Pittsburgh at Connecticut (-4)

Saturday, 11/13/2010
Cincinnati at West Virginia (-4.5)
Utah at Notre Dame (-4.5)
Virginia Tech at North Carolina (-3)
Texas Tech at Oklahoma (-12)
Oklahoma St at Texas (-18)
Michigan at Purdue (PK)
Mississippi at Tennessee (-5)
Georgia at Auburn (-3)
Oregon (-2) at California
South Carolina at Florida (-15)
Miami, Florida at Georgia Tech (-3)
Penn State at Ohio State (-7)
Tulsa at Houston (-10)

Week 12

Thursday 11/18/2010
UCLA at Washington (-6)
Air Force (-3.5) at UNLV

Friday, 11/19/2010
Fresno State at Boise State (-20)

Saturday, 11/20/2010
Stanford at California (-3)
NC State at North Carolina (-14)
Ohio State (-4) at Iowa
Virginia Tech at Miami, Florida (-2)
Army at Notre Dame (-21)
Pittsburgh (-3) at South Florida
Mississippi at LSU (-7)
Wisconsin (-4) at Michigan
Tennessee (-8) at Vanderbilt
Nebraska (-4.5) at Texas A&M
Arkansas (-8) at Mississippi State

Week 13

Thursday, 11/25/2010
Texas A&M at Texas (-14)

Friday, 11/26/2010
West Virginia at Pittsburgh (PK)
Auburn at Alabama (-11)
Boise State (-13) at Nevada

Saturday, 11/27/2010
LSU at Arkansas (-6)
Washington at California (-3)
Florida (-7) at Florida State
Georgia Tech at Georgia (-4)
Michigan at Ohio State (-13.5)
Oklahoma (-13) at Oklahoma State
Virginia at Virginia Tech (-20)
Oregon State at Stanford (-5)
Cincinnati at Connecticut (-3.5)
Iowa (-9) at Minnesota
Michigan State at Penn State (-10.5)
South Florida at Miami, Florida (-10)
Kansas at Missouri (-7.5) from Kansas City

Week 14

Thursday, 12/2/2010
Arizona (-8) at Arizona State

Saturday, 12/4/2010
UNLV at Hawaii (-5)
Oregon (-3) at Oregon State
Illinois at Fresno State (-7)
Connecticut at South Florida (-2.5)
Rutgers at West Virginia (-8.5)
Washington (-17) at Washington State
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-4)

Week 15
Saturday, 12/11/2010
Army vs. Navy (-17) from Philadelphia

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2010, 08:26 PM

So. Cal preview

Well, at least you don’t have to worry about those futures bets on Southern Cal winning the BCS championship this year because the Trojans won’t be bowling for the next two seasons – and lose some 30 scholarships over the next three – because of the fallout from the Reggie Bush scandal at the school. Did Coach Pete Carroll escape to the Seattle Seahawks just in time or what?

Lane Kiffin returns to Southern Cal from Tennessee to take over for Carroll, and by all accounts he landed a Caroll-esque recruiting class this season. And many of those kids might have to play because the NCAA is allowing USC juniors and seniors to transfer without sitting out a year because of the harsh sanctions the school is facing. As for this writing, no big-name players have decided to leave, but that could change at any time.

Despite all the off-field issues, the Trojans still might be the team to beat in the Pac-10 following last year’s 9-4 record and fifth-place finish in the Pac-10. That ended USC’s seven-year streak of 11-win seasons, Pac-10 Championships, BCS bowl appearances and Top 4 finishes in the AP Poll. There is no question that the Pac-10 should be very deep this year, but with conference favorite Oregon losing its starting QB in Jeremiah Masoli the door is open for USC to return to the top.

Kiffin inherits a 2010 team that returns 12 starters (5 on offense, 6 on defense, 1 specialist). And the Trojans did have some big wins last year, beating three of the four ranked teams they played as well as annual rivals Notre Dame and UCLA.

On offense, Matt Barkley is back as the starting quarterback, and while he was inconsistent in his freshman season – the first true freshman to start a season opener at USC -- he showed signs of being a star (completing nearly 60 percent of his passes for 2,735 yards and 15 TDs). Also back are stud fullback Stanley Havili, a three-year starter, and WR Ronald Johnson. The team’s leading WR from last year, Damian Williams, and top RB, Joe McKnight, both have to be replaced, however.

The defense was a shocking weakness last year and lost guys like Taylor Mays and Everson Griffen. This year’s Trojans should be very good on the defensive line (led by Nick Perry and Jurrell Casey) but have major questions in a secondary that brings back no starters. And offenses figure to dominant the Pac-10 again this year.

Here is USC’s 2010 schedule:
Sept. 2 at Hawaii
Sept. 11 Virginia
Sept. 18 at Minnesota
Sept. 25 at Washington State
Oct. 2 Washington
Oct. 9 at Stanford
Oct. 16 California
Oct. 30 Oregon
Nov. 6 Arizona State
Nov. 13 at Arizona
Nov. 20 at Oregon State
Nov. 27 Notre Dame
Dec. 4 at UCLA

Because the Trojans are visiting Hawaii, they play 13 regular-season games instead of 12 like most Division I teams. And, frankly, USC should sweep its four non-conference games without much of a problem. For all the Trojans’ problems last year, their losses all came in conference. USC’s eight-game winning streak against Notre Dame ties the longest ever streak against the Irish by an opponent. Make that a record nine this year.

I expect USC to be 5-0 and ranked near the Top 10 once it visits Stanford in that Oct. 9 game. The Trojans no doubt remember that Stanford laid 55 points on them in L.A. last year, and the 34-point loss was USC’s worst at home since 1966. I think Stanford is able to win a close one at home this year, however. Depending on how the Oregon QB battle shakes out, that Oct. 30 game with the Ducks could end up being the difference for the Pac-10 title (if USC wins the conference the second-place team gets the automatic bowl bid). Think I like the Ducks in that one.

Still, the Trojans should be in the conference race and probably at 8-2 overall when they visit Oregon State, another Pac-10 contender. The Beavers always give USC trouble in Corvallis and have won the past two meetings there. Make it three. USC will close its season with two more wins to finish at a very respectable 10-3 in Kiffin’s first season.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2010, 08:27 PM

Notre Dame preview

So, where do we begin with Notre Dame? New coach? New offense? New conference?

What we can say with some certainty is that it is not going to be any quick-fix situation in South Bend, even with accomplished HC Brian Kelly being lured from Cincinnati to clear the stench of the Charlie Weis regime. We'll get to more of this fall's prospects in a moment, but for now we'll just say that with a green QB, rebuilt OL, and a slate minus many soft touches, Kelly will do well just to get the Irish back to any bowl game. Misplaced BCS talk by Domers should precede a trip to the confessional, at least this season.

Briefly, however, it's more interesting to reflect upon some of the peripheral issues for this year's Fighting Irish, including the hiring of Kelly, fresh off steering Cincinnati to an unbeaten regular season and back-to-back BCS appearances. Indeed, most informed observers believe Kelly gives the Irish their best chance of re-scaling the heights of college football since Lou Holtz was hired away from Minnesota in 1986. But it's also interesting to note just how often Notre Dame has swung and missed in its recent coaching hires. Bob Davie. Tyrone Willingham. Weis. All forced to walk the plank. The Fighting Irish "brand" has thus taken a hit in recent years, and the fact Notre Dame hasn't been a serious national title contender since Holtz's tenure means that a generation has now grown up without the Irish being a big deal. Of course, Notre Dame still has plenty of cachet in college gridiron circles, but it's not like it used to be, a development Kelly is being expected to change in a hurry.

Long term, the recurring talk of Notre Dame joining a conference has become big news once more, especially with the Big Ten announcing plans to expand. Although the Irish have forever resisted temptation to link up with any league on the gridiron side, indicators are that sentiment might be changing within Blue and Gold Nation. The Big East, home to most of Notre Dame's athletics teams save football, is reportedly considering a fish-or-cut-bait ultimatum to the Irish; join us for everything, or nothing at all. Although some sources put the chances of ND football joining the Big Ten or any loop at no more than 15%, and AD Jack Swarbrick is on record as saying that only a "seismic change" would prompt the Irish to consider joining a league, this might be Notre Dame's last chance in the foreseeable future to finally make the switch, especially with the Big Ten ready to move. Younger blood on the school's Board of Trustees is also reportedly more open to a jump than the old guard, who have been losing some influence in internal matters. It will be big news whatever; stay tuned for further developments.

Meanwhile, Kelly is hoping for a reprisal of a long ago phenomenon at South Bend when QBs would emerge without much warning (think John Huarte, Terry Hanratty, Joe Theismann and Joe Montana). But with Jimmy Clausen taking his act to the NFL a year early, Kelly's options at QB seem limited-jr. Dayne Crist, with only a handful of snaps at ND and coming off ACL surgery, and another Montana, Nate, who spent last year honing his skills at Pasadena City College. Kelly's new spread ought to at least be able to illuminate monster WR Michael Floyd, who gained 100 or more receiving yards in 5 of 6 games he played in an injury-marred '09, and talented TE Kyle Rudolph, but a young OL will have to mature quickly to help Kelly add some needed pizzazz to the ground game that might have some potential with returning top rushers Armando Allen, Jr. and Robert Hughes.

Prospects seems a bit better on the defensive side with eight returning starters, including most of the front seven, although this was not a dominant platoon last fall, ranking 86th nationally when allowing almost 400 ypg. New d.c. Bob Diaco will return the Irish to the same 3-4 alignments they utilized prior to last season, with soph big-play LB Manti Te'o the likely featured performer, although we've yet to see much evidence of the enhanced foot speed that was supposedly being emphasized in recent recruiting classes.

Summary...Ironically, it's two names other than Weis'who departed South Bend (QB Jimmy Clausen & WR Golden Tate) who would really have come in handy for Kelly's first ND edition. But with ?s at QB and a new offense, we could envision the Irish in adjustment mode, much as Holtz's first team, which struggled when finishing 5-6. Realistic Domers (if such people exist) should be satisfied if Kelly gets his systems in place and reverses the underachieving culture of the Weis years as they wait for the big payoff a couple of years down the road.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2010, 08:28 PM

Backing Unranked Favorites

College football is an interesting creature in that not every team in the Football Bowl Subdivision expects to win a national championship. Some programs at this level just simply want to be recognized by the sports writers or other coaches so they can listed in the polls.

Ranking for a lot of clubs from the middle of the pack in BCS conferences or at the top mid-majors (like the Mountain West) is validation and a little bit of respect. Yet getting into the Top 25 of either AP or USA Today polls doesn’t equate to getting respect from the folks making the lines.

You’d think that you would not see all that many unranked clubs being tabbed as a favorite against teams in the Top 25, but you’d be wrong. During the 2009 campaign, there were 18 separate occasions in which a ranked team was posted as an underdog. And if you go back over the last three seasons, you’ll see that this has happened 46 times.

The first thing that a public gambler will do without thinking is drop their money on the ranked team to win as a pup. That line of thinking doesn’t play in this day and age. VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Dave Cokin explains, “I don't think there's any particular correlation between the national rankings and the spreads anymore. Lots of bettors are sharp enough to recognize that the rankings are pretty much a farce. The voters who comprise these polls have been exposed as not being especially knowledgeable.”

“The oddsmakers certainly don't have much regard for these rankings, and neither do the sharp players. Further proof that the betting world is not comprised of mostly squares anymore, at least not in terms of their perception of the team,” Cokin concludes.

So what do gamblers need to know about this situation that will most certainly rear its head during the season?

The first thing we need to realize is the oddsmakers know what they’re doing as the unranked clubs that are favored have gone 28-18 straight up in those 46 matches over the last years. As far as bettors are concerned, however, those favorites are just 24-21-1 against the spread. That’s a 53 percent success rate, which is nothing to ignore.

Breaking down that information into the BCS conferences, you’ll see that the ACC has been the group with the most games in this situation with 13. In those contests, the unranked club went 9-4 SU and 8-4-1 ATS.

While the ACC has the most games in this role, the Pac-10 has been the group to play at the betting window. Teams from the west coast have only played seven games as an unranked favorite, but they are 5-2 SU and ATS. The ‘under’ cashed in at a 5-2 in those spots as well.

You don’t have to just focus on the leagues to make a profit on this situation. It’s just as important to know when you should hammer the unranked “chalk” as it is to fade them.

There have been eight games in which an unranked club was favored over the last three years. Those favorites were 3-5 SU and ATS. The ‘under’ proved to be the right play for gamblers that fancy totals by going 7-1.

September hasn’t been the time to fade those unranked programs over the last three years, evidenced by a 3-5 SU and ATS record. Last September, they went 1-3 SU and ATS…extend that out over the first two months of the year and they were only 2-6 SU and ATS. That opening month fade can be attributed to unranked BCS schools getting preference over non-conference foes.

Bettors are better suited for to wait for conference play in November. When in that final full month of league play, unranked favorites are 12-5 SU and 11-6 ATS. And those same faves posted a stellar 6-0 SU and ATS mark with the ‘under’ going 4-1-1 just last November.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2010, 08:29 PM

Sleeping Profits

If you’re to give a gambler an option between making a bet on a game taking place on the same day or to place a wager on a future bet, they’ll take the former. There’s no secret in the fact that bettors are all about getting instant gratification. Futures are in line for people that have no problems waiting for several months before you can cash a winning ticket.

Even though you will be playing the waiting game on those prop bets, you’re going to be able to find some great value on certain clubs.

A common bet for the random John Smith out there to make is picking a team to win the national championship. While there are some teams that give us a decent return on investment, you’d have a better chance of sobering Lindsay Lohan up than to pick that winner.

Instead of picking a team to win it all, consider playing a program to win their respective conference. You are going to have your heavy favorites (Ohio State is at minus-250 to win the Big Ten) in some of these races, but you can find some sleepers that offer up good value.

Here a couple of teams that offer up a solid payday if they win their BCS conferences. You can find these odds over at BetUS.

Keep on Ramblin’…

When you look at the latest odds for who will win the ACC, you’re seeing a lot of the usual suspects. Virginia Tech (+400), Miami (+250), and Florida State (+250) are at the top of the list for the betting shops. The Tar Heels (+500) are even getting some love to be a sort of a darkhorse with Butch Davis running the show.

Those are good choices for gamblers to mull over, but what about the Yellow Jackets? You know who they are, the team that won the ACC last fall for the first time since the early 1990s.

Georgia Tech is that girl just sitting quietly in the corner, waiting for someone to ask them to dance. No reason for them to feel like that this season though. But they’re giving a chance to cash in at plus-1000 (risk $100 to win $1,000), which makes them our friend.

The Yellow Jackets return Josh Nesbitt under center for his senior campaign. All he did last season was rush for 1,037 yards and 18 touchdowns. Nobody should be surprised by those numbers given the triple-option attack Paul Johnson employs averaged 307.2 yards per game and 47 touchdowns in 2009.

Now there are some issues that the Ramblin’ Wreck will deal with in 2010. The most notable things for them to take care of is replacing Jonathan Dwyer (1,395 yards, 14 TD) in the backfield and Demaryius Thomas (1,154 yards, 8 TD) for the aerial assault. Georgia Tech will also have to replace three starters on the offensive line, but they have enough depth there to ease this transition. And there is no reason to believe that anyone in the ACC has figured out how to stop this ground attack.

What could hold bettors away from taking a wager on the kids from Atlanta is a very difficult road schedule. They hit the road to take on the Heels, Demon Deacons, Tigers and Hokies in league play. The Jackets are road warriors under Johnson’s guidance, evidenced by a 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS mark in league road or neutral site matches since 2008.

Cardinal Rule…

Now that the Trojans have had the banhammer dropped on them, the Pac-10 race is as wide open as it has ever been. And that bodes well who dropped the biggest beatdown on USC last year, the Cardinal.

Jim Harbaugh has turned Stanford almost completely around in his three short years in Palo Alto. And the odds are showing the respect he has helped them receive at 8/1 to win a berth in the Rose Bowl. Only Oregon (3/2), Oregon State (3/2), UCLA (7/2), Washington (5/1) and Arizona (5/1) have better odds to make it to Pasadena in January.

The Cardinal might have had shorter odds had Toby Gerhart opted to stay in school. Yet Stanford looks like they should have a competent running back platoon of Jeremy Stewart and Stepfan Taylor. Besides, this is a team that will rely on Andrew Luck’s arm to keep them around averaging 36.2 points per game like they did a year ago.

Luck looks ready to handle more of the offensive workload in 2010. He played intelligent football for much of his freshman campaign with 2,575 passing yards and 13 touchdowns. Most importantly for Cardinal fans is that Luck threw just four interceptions for the entire year. There isn’t any reason to think that won’t improve since Chris Owusu and Ryan Whalen are back to anchor the receiving corp.

The biggest issue for the Cardinal is how well will they be able to defend against the pass. Stanford surrendered 252.0 YPG through the air in ’09, allowing 20 TDs along the way. A switch to the 3-4 should help provide better pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which should lighten the young secondary’s workload.

Stanford will definitely earn the Pac-10 title this year if they can run the table. They will have road trips to face the Bruins, Ducks, Huskies – all of which boast better odds to win the league.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2010, 08:30 PM

Big 10 Preview

When you talk Big 10 Football these days you talk Ohio State.

The Buckeyes won at least a share of the last five Big Ten Championships and will look to match the conference record with a sixth straight crown in 2010, equaling the feat first accomplished by Ohio State from 1972-77. OSU became just the second team in conference history to win five straight conference championships after claiming the 2009 title, splitting the crown with Penn State in 2005 and 2008 and ending the 2006, 2007 and 2009 seasons alone in first place. The Buckeyes have compiled a Big Ten mark of 36-4 over the last five years. Ohio State became the first conference team in over 15 years to finish in first place in five straight seasons since Michigan won at least a share of five consecutive championships from 1988-92.

The 2009 Big Ten Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year return to their respective teams in 2010. Wisconsin RB John Clay and Michigan State LB Greg Jones enter the 2010 campaign as the respective winners last season. Clay becomes the first returning Offensive Player of the Year since 1999 when former Purdue quarterback Drew Brees returned to the Boilermakers after being honored as a sophomore in 1998. Jones becomes the first returning Defensive Player of the Year since 2008, when Ohio State linebacker James Laurinaitis came back to successfully defend his 2007 conference honor.

The Big Ten also welcomes back seven starting quarterbacks from the 2009 season, five of which led their teams to bowl appearances. Iowa senior Ricky Stanzi and Ohio State junior Terrelle Pryor each led their squads to BCS victories last January, Stanzi in the Orange Bowl and Pryor in the Rose Bowl. Wisconsin senior Scott Tolzien led the Badgers to a victory in the Champs Sports Bowl, while Minnesota senior Adam Weber guided the Gophers to the Insight Bowl. Michigan State junior Kirk Cousins guided the Spartans' in their 31-point effort in the Alamo Bowl. Also returning in 2010 is the conference's top statistical passer, Indiana senior Ben Chappell, and Michigan sophomore Tate Forcier, the only full-time freshman starting quarterback in the Big Ten last year.

And the there’s Joe. Penn State's Joe Paterno picked up his 394th victory with a triumph over LSU in the Capital One Bowl and currently holds the all-time victory record among Football Bowl Subdivision coaches. Paterno has built a record of 394-129-3 in his 44 seasons leading the Nittany Lions. Paterno is the longest serving head coach at one school in major college football history.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

ILLINOIS – 5 / 7
TEAM THEME: OUT OF JUICE
Thanks to a disappointing offense and an even worse defense, the Illini could only squeeze out three wins in 2009. Six new assistant coaches arrive in Champaign to sort out the mess led by OC Paul Petrino (Bobby’s brother) and DC Vic Koennig. Petrino’s playbook won’t include Juice Williams, whose once promising career soured out, or top WR Arrelious Benn, a 2nd round NFL draft pick. The plan may be to revert back to classic Big Ten football as four of the team’s top five RB’s return. In addition, four of the Illini’s top five tacklers are back in the fray. With eight bowlers lining the 2010 schedule, including road trips to Penn State and Fresno State, ‘three yards’ may be a bit optimistic. However, the cloud of dust is likely to hang over this program for at least one more season.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Fresno St (12/3)

INDIANA – *8 / 4
TEAM THEME: QUICK DRAW
The feeling here is the Hoosiers could be a real sleeper team in 2010. Four of their eight losses last year were by 3 points or less. A promising 3-1 start ended in a 0-5 disaster after IU blew a 25-point lead at Northwestern and followed up by choking away a two-TD lead at Iowa. The roster is loaded with upper classmen (19 seniors, 23 juniors) and efficient QB Ben Chappell is back to lead an offense that will add the ‘Pistol’ to its repertoire. Chappell was the first QB in IU history to complete 60% of his passes in a single season. A favorable early schedule could find the Hoosiers off to a quick 5-1 start. However, they’ll need to continue pulling the trigger late in the season to silence some conference opponents and prevent another November nightmare.
PLAY ON: vs. Purdue (11/27)

IOWA – *6 / 8
TEAM THEME: COMEBACK KIDS
Talk about stability. Since 1979 only two coaches have manned the Iowa City sidelines – Hayden Fry and Kirk Ferentz. Ferentz may have saved his best coaching job for 2009. Despite ranking 10th in the Big 10 in scoring, rushing and total offense, the 12-year veteran guided his team to a 6-2 conference record, an 11-2 overall mark and an Orange Bowl win over Georgia Tech. Did we mention that Iowa, amazingly, trailed in every contest last season until the regular-season ender versus Minnesota! The Hawkeyes 10th-ranked defense (277 YPG) constantly saved the day. Expect more of the same in 2010 as it welcomes back eight starters, including the entire front four. The return of injured QB Ricky Stanzi and RB Jewel Hampton should provide the ‘O’ with a much-needed boost. Either way, the Kinnick Stadium crowd should be in for another ‘Kardiac Kampaign’.
PLAY ON: vs. Northwestern (11/13)

MICHIGAN – *7 / 8
TEAM THEME: FORCIER THE ISSUE
Pete Fiutak of College Football News.com put it best when he asked of Rich Rodriguez’s playbook, “Is this thing ever going to work?” As disappointing as Michigan’s spread offense has been, the defense has been worse – decaying 57 YPG since Rich Rod’s arrival. Last season, the Wolves suffered through a 6-game Big Ten losing streak for the first time in 50 years. In fact, Rodriguez has 13 conference losses in just two seasons at Ann Arbor. FYI: It took Bo Schembechler 13 years to lose 13 Big Ten games! There was one bright spot in the Big House and that was the play of freshman QB Tate Forcier, who passed for over 2,000 yards and 13 TD’s. The automakers repaid Obama five years early on their bailout loan. Rodriguez may have to do the same if he doesn’t get it in gear this season.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Notre Dame (9/11)

MICHIGAN STATE – *7 / 6
TEAM THEME: HELTER SKELTER
East Lansing saw the good, bad and ugly in 2009. On the good side, the Spartans beat Michigan for a second straight season – the first time that’s happened since the Beatles were topping the charts in the mid ‘60’s. From a mediocre standpoint, Mark Dantonio’s bunch dropped six regular season games for the first time under his direction – though five of those losses were by a total of just 23 points. Now for the ugly: Thanks to a frat spat at the end of the regular season, a black cloud hangs over the heads of 11 players found guilty of brawling. The news also varies in 2010. Thanks to graduation losses and the fraternity chaos, the WR corps and D-line is severely short-handed entering the 2010 season. The good news is QB Kirk Cousins, who started all 13 games in 2009 and ranked No. 25 in the nation in pass efficiency, is back. Let’s hope ugly stays home.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Northwestern (10/23)

MINNESOTA – *9 / 2
TEAM THEME: SATURDAY IN THE DARK
To paraphrase a line from Dennis Green, “The Gophers are who we thought they were” – a middle of the pack Big 10 team. After a terrific turnaround in 2008, a big 2009 season could have made HC Tim Brewster millions. However, an uneventful 6-7 year capped off by a bowl loss to Iowa State has the Gophers’ faithful feeling a little punky. With just two starters and no linemen back on defense, the Minneapolis natives may be best served to keep the TV off until Sunday. The biggest shoes to fill will be the loss of three LB’s that were all NFL combine attendees. While point production dropped for the third straight year under Brewster, Minnesota’s offense may suddenly be the strength of the team with nine starters back. Nine bowlers roll onto the 2010 slate but six visit the comfy confines of TCF Bank Stadium. Saturday looks like another yawner in the City of Lakes.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Northern Illinois (9/25)

NORTHWESTERN – 8 / 6
TEAM THEME: CURIOUS ‘CATS
Savoring their most successful stretch of football in school history, the Wildcats finished the decade with a 61-60 record. The winning record may come as a bit of a surprise… as should this little piece of bar trivia: in the last 15 years, only Ohio State and Michigan have won or shared more Big Ten titles than Northwestern’s three crowns. While HC Pat Fitzgerald won just five Big Ten contests in his first two years in Evanston, his Wildcats have posted five conference wins in each of the last two seasons. An offensive line that returns intact along with the entire linebacking crew should keep the ‘Cats prowling in 2010 – but career back-up Dan Persa will have to fill the void left by 2009 Big Ten passing leader Mike Kafka. Road trips to Penn State and Wisconsin may cost the ‘Cats a couple of lives, but another year without the Buckeyes on the slate could have this bunch feeling frisky.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Indiana (10/30)

OHIO STATE – *10 / 6
TEAM THEME: COVER UP
The combination of eight home games and a ferocious defense that ranks third nationally over the last six years (280 YPG), makes the Buckeyes serious title contenders in 2010. If he doesn’t cave under the pressure of being our cover boy, QB Terrelle Pryor should be a front-runner for the Heisman Trophy. After a mid-season loss at Purdue, Pryor took matters into his owns hands (and feet), leading the Buckeyes to a season-ending 6-game win streak, including a Rose Bowl win over Oregon. The junior has plenty of help on offense as nine starters return, including a backfield that HC Jim Tressel calls the deepest he’s had in his 10 years at Columbus. Ohio State’s biggest hurdles on its way to a BCS title tilt will be road games at Wisky and Iowa. Along, of course, with our aforementioned cover jinx. Just ask Big Ben, who graced – or should we say disgraced – last year’s edition.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Iowa (11/20)

PENN STATE – 7 / 5
TEAM THEME: AMAZING RACE
To those who contend Joe Pa is slipping, we say you need to tune into a reality show – real quick. Not only have the Lions posted back-to-back 11-win seasons, but the only team that they have failed to outgain over the last two regular seasons has been Ohio State, as Penn State is 22-2 ‘In The Stats’ during that span. A tough schedule, laced with eight bowlers and road trips to Alabama, Iowa and Ohio State figure to test those numbers in 2010. Replacing QB Daryll Clark may also test Paterno’s patience, though highly-recruited SO Kevin Newsome is poised to win the starting job. Linebacker U. returns only five starters on the defensive side of the ball but that unit is in its usual reloading, rather than rebuilding, phase. It’s another race against time for the 83-year old Paterno. Our money is on Joe.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Alabama (9/11)

PURDUE – 6 / 6
TEAM THEME: SIMPLY MARVE-ELOUS
For the second straight year, the Boilermakers lose a starting QB to graduation. Joey Elliott did an admirable job replacing Curtis Painter and now it’s Robert Marve’s show. The transfer from Miami Fla, who lost his starting job to Jacory Harris, will be front and under center as the Boilermakers look to avoid a third straight losing season. Despite a seven-loss campaign, there is ‘Hope’ in West Lafayette (read: Danny). Six of the seven losses in 2009 were to bowl teams and four were by seven or less points. The second-year head coach also saw his forces win four of their final six games, beating Ohio State and Michigan in the same season for only the third time in school history. A defense that lost its entire secondary will have to be addressed but with only three winning teams on this year’s ticket, it could be a ‘marvelous’ time to be a Boiler.
PLAY ON: vs. Minnesota (10/16)

WISCONSIN –*10 / 6
TEAM THEME: ALIVE AND KICKING
It could be argued that the majority of the Badgers wins last season came against teams that barely had a pulse. Thus it was strange to watch Wisconsin manhandle Miami in the Champs Sports Bowl last year. That’s because the Badgers’ three losses last year were to quality opposition. Ironically, they will face only three teams (two coming at home) in 2010 that enjoyed winning seasons last year – the same three that took them down in 2009. That leaves nine foes sporting losing ledgers and, behind 16 returning starters, Bret Bielema is obviously anxious to let the games begin. And kick this around, if you will… Bielema, who is 38-14 in his four seasons at Madison, has seen his team involved in 13 games that were decided by three or less points. He is 9-4 in those games, with wins in five of the last six. The holes are few and far between in Camp Randall Stadium.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Ohio State (10/16) – *KEY +6.5 pts or more

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2010, 08:31 PM

Big East Preview

This always-powerful basketball conference has come a long way toward establishing a football pedigree since it rejected Penn State’s application for admittance in 1985.

Under its current alignment, which has been in place for five seasons, the BIG EAST is a combined 159-61 in non-conference games (.721). That stands as the best five-year non-league record in the history of the conference and second among FBS conferences, only behind the SEC.

It’s 36 non-conference wins in 2009 rank second in conference history, behind only the league’s 37-8 mark in 2006. Included in the success outside the conference is a sterling 16-6 mark in bowl games the last four years.

Six of the eight current BIG EAST teams have won at least a share of the BIG EAST title in the last five years, with only Rutgers and South Florida on the outside looking in.

Despite Joe Paterno’s eventual ties with the Big 10 Conference, the BIG EAST is doing just fine these days, thank you.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

CINCINNATI – 8 / 6
TEAM THEME: COACHING CAROUSEL
The Central Michigan/Cincinnati feeding frenzy continues as Butch Jones once again follows in the footsteps of the departed Brian Kelly. Unfortunately for Jones, the cupboard is a little bare as QB Tony Pike and star WR Mardy Gilyard are among those gone from last year’s 12-win squad. However, QB Zach Collaros, last season’s emergency sparkplug is back and he’ll lead an offense that committed only 10 turnovers in 2009, the fewest in the nation. In his short stay in the Queen City, Kelly certainly left an impact. The Bearcats were a surprising 8-2 versus ranked opponents under his guidance and were ranked in the Top 25 a total of 28 weeks. Cincy had been ranked a total of just six weeks the previous 70 years! Jones didn’t miss a beat after taking over the Central Michigan program. The question is… can he keep the Bearcats rocking?
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Fresno St (9/4)

CONNECTICUT – *8 / 8
TEAM THEME: YOUNG & RESTLESS An eight-win season could have easily resulted in a double-digit win campaign had UConn turned a couple of close losses into victories. Randy Edsall’s Huskies lost a total of five games by a combined 15 points, with none coming by more than four points. The young talent started to blossom late in the year, ending the season on a four-game win streak, capped by a bowl win over South Carolina. QB’s Zach Frazier and Cody Endres, both of whom started games last season, are back along with 1,100-yard runner Jordan Todman. “I am very happy with how our off-season conditioning program has gone. Our players have shown a commitment that they want to be even better in 2010,” said Edsall. If Edsall can fine-tune a ‘D’ that slipped 91 YPG, and experience can turn a couple of close losses into wins, who knows what excitement can be in ‘Storr’ this season?
PLAY ON: vs. West Virginia (10/29)

LOUISVILLE – *9 / 6
TEAM THEME: HOLD THE ANCHOVIES
The fire that raged under the seat of deposed head coach Steve Kragthorpe has been extinguished now that Charlie Strong is in the house. Strong brings offensive coordinator Mike Sanford, the former UNLV head coach, and his spread offense to Papa John’s Stadium. The delivery may take some time, however, as the WR’s are the thinnest group on the Cardinals’ offense and QB Adam From was in and out of the lineup with injuries last season. There is no truth to the rumor, though, that Strong and Sanford were seen viewing video of ‘Papa John’ Schnatter tossing the pigskin. A reasonable non-conference menu shouldn’t have the Louisville faithful starving for victories early – but they may want to order seconds as six of the final seven games are against bowlers. Eat up!
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Syracuse (11/6)

PITTSBURGH – 5 / 6
TEAM THEME: CAT’S MEOW
A 10-win season could have been even better had the Panthers not missed an extra point on the final score of the game against Cincinnati. That chip shot denied Pittsburgh a Big East title and a BCS bowl. The Panthers don’t return a lot of quantity in 2010 but there is plenty of quality. RB Dion Lewis, the most decorated freshman in the nation last year (1,799 yards, 17 TD’s) is back, as are a pair of outstanding wideouts in Jon Baldwin, a Biletnikoff candidate, and Mike Shanahan. QB Bill Stull is gone but his backup, Pat Bostik, red-shirted last season and has started nine games. On the other side of the ball, DE’s Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard are arguably the best pair in the land. Last year’s No. 15 ranking was Pitt’s highest finish since 1982. A tough non-conference schedule (at Utah, vs. Miami) will let us know early if Wanny’s Panthers will continue to prowl.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Utah (9/2)

RUTGERS – *6 / 6
TEAM THEME: BANK ON IT
They’ve been playing some good football “on the banks’ the last four years as Rutgers is one of only four teams in the nation to win four straight bowl games. Averaging nine wins per season over that span, Greg Schiano’s Knights are primed to make a run at the Big East title. That elusive crown may have to wait another season as the schedule finds them visiting Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and West Virginia. Nonetheless, there is optimism on the Scarlet sidelines with QB Tom Savage returning for his sophomore season. Savage started 11 games in 2009 and leads all active Big East signal callers in games started, going from the least experienced to the most in one season. RB Joe Martinek, the Knights’ leading rusher, also makes his way back to New Brunswick. Despite a tough schedule, there’s no shame in backing these Scarlet Letter(men).
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Connecticut (10/8)

SOUTH FLORIDA – *9 / 5
TEAM THEME: A HOLTZ NEW ERA
Year 13 wasn’t lucky for legendary coach Jim Leavitt as he was relieved of his duties after allegations of player abuse. Even a sterling 95-57 record couldn’t save his job. Enter Skip Holtz, winner of back-to-back conference titles – one of only four coaches nationally to do so over the last two seasons. QB B.J. Daniels, the entire offensive line and three of the top four running backs return, ensuring the smile on Skippy’s face is not clown-like. Four of the first five games are in Tampa, practically assuring the Bulls of a quick start. However, Holtz will need to overcome a hard-to-shake Leavitt trait: 15-0 SU in the season’s first five games over the last three years but just 8-13 SU in the final seven games (maybe the real reason Leavitt is gone!). New DC Mark Snyder (ex-Marshall boss) and OC Todd Fitch (with Holtz at ECU) should keep the Bulls running.
PLAY ON: vs. Connecticut (12/4)

SYRACUSE – 5 / 10
TEAM THEME: FRESHLY SQUEEZED
Doug Marrone did a nice job in his first season with the Orange. Despite WR Mike Williams, a Biletnikoff finalist, quitting the team in midseason, the ‘Cuse still managed to win more games than in either of the previous two seasons. The offense finally averaged in the 20’s, albeit low 20’s, for the first time in five seasons and the defense improved significantly. Not satisfied, Marrone will also assume the offensive coordinator duties in 2010. If the Orange can squeeze out a couple of winnable road games to start the season, they should be able to get off to a 4-0 start for the first time since 1991 – not bad for a team that hasn’t won more than four games in a season since 2004. While Marrone certainly has the Orange heading in the right direction, we’re still not confident they’re ripe enough for the taking. We’ll know more after their meeting with the improved Huskies.
PLAY ON: vs. Connecticut (11/20)

WEST VIRGINIA – 8 / 9
TEAM THEME: MUTTON, HONEY
After serving as Bobby Bowden’s sacrificial lamb in last year’s Gator Bowl, the Mountaineers are anxious to get back to work in 2010. Behind 17 returning starters, including an experienced offensive line that took 839 of 855 snaps in 2009, and multi-talented RB Noel Devine (1,465 rushing yards on 6.1 YPR), WVU enjoyed its first undefeated home record since 1993. It won’t be cruise city, however, as head coach Bill Stewart must develop a new starting quarterback for the third straight year. It hasn’t mattered in the past, though, as the stump-jumpers have posted 5-2 conference records in each of the last four seasons. With a seventh straight bowl in the offing, look for the Mountaineers to improve on a sterling 83-46-1 SU all-time mark in Big East play since their inaugural 1991 season. PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Pittsburgh (11/26)

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2010, 08:32 PM

ACC Preview

One of only two conferences (along with the SEC) with five teams in the preseason Top 25, the ACC will brace itself in 2010 when they take on the toughest schedule in the nation against opponents that compiled a winning percentage of .604 last year. In fact, only the PAC 10 of the traditional ‘Big Six’ conferences faced opponents who won more than 50 percent of their games in 2009.

Let’s make this clear: this conference takes a back seat to none when it comes to stocking the NFL as, over the last four years, the ACC has led all conferences in terms of most players selected in the first-round of the NFL Draft (30).

And it doesn’t stop there. Miami was one of only two teams (along with Notre Dame) honored this year by the AFCA as having the highest graduation rates in its football program of any schools in the nation, graduating 100% of their players for the class of 2002. It was the first time Miami has been honored.

It’s all cash-and-carry in 2010 as, for the first time in ACC history, five 1,000-Yard Rushers return. And with Virginia Tech – the top defensive team in the land since 2004 - anchoring this loop, there is a lot to like about the ACC.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

Atlantic Division

BOSTON COLLEGE – *8/6
TEAM THEME: FOOL US ONCE
Thanks to a defense that ranked 14th against the run and 19th in total points allowed, the Eagles surpassed all expectations in 2009. Picked to finish last in the ACC Atlantic Division, the Eagles rewarded their backers with an eight-win season and an Emerald Bowl appearance. That was without 2008 defensive player of the year Mark Herzlich, who sat out the entire season with bone cancer. Herzlich is back and he joins ACC defensive rookie of the year Luke Kuechly, who led the conference in tackles per game, to anchor a solid linebacking corps. The defensive effort was really no surprise considering HC Frank Spaziani’s roots. In fact, the winning season should have come as no surprise as Virginia Tech is the only ACC team with more wins than BC over the past four seasons. Another winning season in Chestnut Hill? Don’t be surprised.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. NC State (10/9

CLEMSON – *7/6
TEAM THEME - HOPE ‘SPILLERS’ OVER
When a team loses a star RB like C.J. Spiller to the 1st round of the NFL draft, along with its top three WR’s from the previous season, it generally spells doom. Especially when that team goes toe-to-toe with no less than seven bowlers from the previous season. But Dabo Swinney is not a doomsayer and he refuses to believe his team is primed to take a step back from last year’s nine-win effort. Swinney, in fact, sees the glass being more than half full, noting four of his top five tacklers from last year’s swarming defense are back. So is QB Kyle Parker, who won nine games as a redshirt freshman last season, including a Music City Bowl win over Kentucky. It’s obvious Swinney is from the Brylcreem school of coaching – he believes ‘a little dab will do ya.’ Another nine-win season? Now wouldn’t that be debonair!
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Florida St (11/13)

FLORIDA STATE - *10/6
TEAM THEME: JIMBO-LAYA
It’s official: legendary coach Bobby Bowden has finally retired and will now be working full-time on his great-grandfathering skills as he hands the keys over to Jimbo Fisher. Fisher needs to improve on a recipe that has seen the Seminoles go 16-16 in ACC play over the last four seasons. QB Christian Ponder returns for his senior season after a shoulder injury ended his 2009 campaign after nine games. Despite the early exit, Ponder still led the ACC in total offense and with nearly the entire offensive starting cast back, don’t be surprised to see the exciting QB on more than a few Heisman ballots. With five Top 25 foes dotting this season’s schedule, including road trips to Norman and Miami, it may just take a Heisman-like effort for the Cracker Barrel folks to forget about ol’ Bobby.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Florida (11/27)

MARYLAND – 7/5
TEAM THEME: SHELL-SHOCKED
After racing out to a 31-7 record in his first three years, it’s been a slow demise for Ralph Friedgen seeing that his Turtles have posted four losing seasons in the last six years. A season-ending seven-loss skein sealed their 2009 fate and as a result, snapped a three-year bowl streak. Despite a scoring and pass defense that was the worst in the ACC last year, half of the Terrapins’ 10 losses were by a meager 3.4 PPG. Thus, there’s still some hope in College Park – but a slimmed-down ‘Fridge’ will have to start serving up more victories in order to satisfy the faithful. The Terps will rely on RB Da’rel Scott (one of five 1,000-yard rushers returning to the ACC this season) to pick up the pace. A mid-season stretch that finds them on the road in four of five games will likely decide if these Turtles can sprint to the finish.
PLAY ON: as DD dog vs. Clemson (10/16)

NORTH CAROLINA STATE – *7 5
TEAM THEME: DANCING WITH THE STARS
Along with Buffalo, NC State is the only FBS team in the nation that improved its numbers on both sides of the ball while declining both SU and ATS in 2009. That almost always signals improvement the following season. Thus, we’ll be dancing with these Wolves – especially with QB Russell Wilson donning the cleats. The junior has tossed for 48 TD’s and run for eight others in his two seasons at Raleigh and is on course to break all of Philip Rivers’ records. His dance partner is WR Owen Spencer, who broke the ACC record for the second straight year in yards per reception (25.5 – tops in the nation). The choreographer of this group is HC Tom O’Brien. O’Brien, himself, has stepped on some toes along the way, posting an 84-65-2 overall ATS mark, including 56-38-1 ATS in conference play and 17-2-1 ATS versus foes off back-to-back ATS wins. We like those moves.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Florida St (10/28)

WAKE FOREST – 6/7
TEAM THEME: TURNOVER IS FAIR PLAY
After four consecutive winning seasons in which they averaged more than eight wins per year, the Demons fell below the surface with a 5-7 effort in 2009. That makes them a genuine ‘Mission Team’ in 2010 and we’ll be more than anxious to support them in this revenge year. Unfortunately, we’ll be doing so without the services of 4-year starter QB Riley Skinner, who totaled nearly 10,000 yards of offense in his career. An even scarier thought is that no QB on the roster has completed a collegiate pass. However, there’s more than one way to ‘skin’ an opponent and the stat that grabs our attention is quite simple: in 2009, the Deacons were a negative -5 in turnovers after being +13, +9 and +17 the previous three seasons. Skinner or not, look for the Deacons to ‘Wake’ up in 2010.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Florida St (9/25)

Coastal Division

DUKE – 9/6
TEAM THEME: DEVILS GET THEIR DUE
Like it is for the devil down below, things are looking up in Durham. Three conference wins in 2009 were one more than Duke had won the previous three years combined. In fact, the nine wins tallied in two years under HC David Cutcliffe is only one less than the Blue Devils won the first eight years of the decade. The loss of QB Thaddeus Lewis, only the second signal caller in ACC history to toss for more than 10,000 yards, will hurt. However, nine other offensive starters return from a unit that averaged over 25 PPG, including three wideouts who accounted for over 2,400 yards and 15 TD’s. Not to play Devil’s advocate, but one fact is certain if these cellar-dwellers expect to surface: Cutcliffe will need to avoid a perpetual season-ending slide that has seen Duke go 3-37 in each of the final four games of the season since 2000.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Army (9/25)

GEORGIA TECH – *6/8
TEAM THEME: RUSH TO JUDGEMENT
With Al Groh handling the defensive coordinator duties, the Jackets coaching staff now boasts the last three ACC Coaches of the Year. Offensive-minded HC Paul Johnson, winner of the last two awards, will rely on Groh to shore up a defense that allowed over 25 PPG and almost 5 yards per rush. Despite the defensive deficiencies, the Jackets still recorded 11 wins – the most since their 1990 national championship season. The offense has no such concerns as QB Josh Nesbitt is back at the helm. Nesbitt is the perfect caretaker for Johnson’s triple-option offense, becoming only the second QB in ACC history to rush for over 1,000 yards in a season. Despite losing Jonathon Dwyer, last season’s second-ranked rushing attack (295 YPG) shouldn’t miss a beat as Roddy Jones (7.7 YPC) and Anthony Allen (26 career TD’s) return to Atlanta. Looks like another ACC title ‘run’ for the Ramblin’ Wreck.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Virginia Tech (11/4)

MIAMI, FLA – *6/8
TEAM THEME: PUNCH AND JACORY
A Canes conundrum occurred last year when QB Jacory Harris evolved as the full-time starter and, despite playing hurt throughout the 2nd-half of the season, proceeded to lead Miami to a 9-4 record, their most wins since 2005. What Randy Shannon learned is that there is little-to-no depth behind Harris and the fate of this season lies within his rail-thin frame. Like last year, the Canes will be tested early as three of Miami’s first four games will be on the road against teams that won bowl games last season. In fact, UM will take on no less than eight bowlers in 2010. Shannon will need to rely on the strength of this team – a defensive line that returns three starters along with 2009 projected starter Adewale Ojome, who missed the season with a broken jaw after a taking a punch from a teammate. If Harris can stay healthy, the Canes may deliver a few more knockout blows.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Clemson (10/2)

NORTH CAROLINA – *10/9
TEAM THEME: WELL-HEELED
While our favorite meaning of the word ‘loaded’ comes courtesy of our local watering hole, we’ll use Webster’s version to describe the 2010 Tar Heels: containing bullets or other ammunition and ready to fire. And ready they are! Ten starters are back on offense, including virtually every OL starter that went down at one time or another to injuries. Nine starters are back from a defense that has combined to make a total of 234 starts and held 13 opponents to 94 YPG below their total offensive average. Included in those not-so ‘baby’ blues are all four senior DB’s and DE Robert Quinn, the ACC leader in sacks. In fact, five all-star defensive candidates decided to forego the NFL draft to return to Chapel Hill. If this team stays healthy and can overcome a top-heavy schedule ‘loaded’ with nine winning opponents, they might force Webster to create a few new adjectives.
PLAY ON: vs. Georgia Tech (9/18)

VIRGINIA – *6/7
TEAM THEME: LONDON BRIDGE
Back-to-back losing seasons spelled the end of the line for Al Groh. His replacement, Mike London, will try to bridge a winning season despite returning only six starters on each side of the ball. London coached the Richmond Spiders to a 24-5 mark the last two years, including a FCS championship in 2008. Ironically, the former UVA assistant makes his Cavaliers’ debut at home against the Spiders. He’ll need improvement out of senior triggerman Mark Veria, who started eight games last season – a not so proud accomplishment considering the Cavs’ offense finished dead last in the ACC in overall yardage and in scoring in 2009. A tough opening six-game schedule (4 bowlers, 1 FCS playoff team) and a treacherous five-game road slate (foes a combined 43-22), likely means the bridge keeps crumbling in Charlottesville.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Maryland (11/13)

VIRGINIA TECH – *8/5
TEAM THEME: AT-TEN-TION
Gobblers’ 10-plus wins in each of the last six seasons puts them in select company as only Texas can claim as many double-digit win seasons during that span. It’s been no surprise that it’s been the defense leading the way, allowing a nation-low 268 YPG since 2004. Thanks to the smothering ‘D’, the Hokies have amazingly not lost a game by more than 10 points in their last 39 tries. However, with only five defensive starters back, it may be the offense that actually carries the load in 2010. And loaded they are. QB Tyrod Taylor (5th in the nation in passing efficiency) returns along with RB’s Ryan Williams (1,655 yards – 3rd most by a freshman in ACC history) and Darren Evans (top back in the conference heading into 2009 before a season-ending knee injury). A season-opening victory over Boise State should put Beamer’s boys in the center of the BCS map.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Miami Fla (11/20)

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2010, 08:33 PM

Big XII Preview

They gained notoriety as the ‘Sure We Cheat’ (SWC) league in the 1970’s. They then evolved into the Big 8 Conference before expanding into the Big 12. Where they go from here, no one knows.

What we know for sure is the Big 12 Conference is back for another college football season in 2010. And we can also likely expect another lackluster performance from this loop come bowl time.

Granted, Texas made it to the BCS championship game last year, a game in which Oklahoma has made four appearances this past decade. But the truth of the matter is unless the Big12 can improve on its blasé 39-38 SU and 32-45 ATS mark in bowl games since 2000, they will likely go down as another also-ran major conference that continues to shoot itself in the foot thanks to lackluster play on the defensive side of the ball.

In closing, despite the defensive deficiencies of the rest of the conference, beware of the Sooners. Other than the game with Texas, they figure to be double-digit favorites in every other contest this season. Remember, the last time Bob Stoops lost five games in the same season his team went on to go 13-0 and win a national championship (2000).

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

North Division

COLORADO – *9 / 7
TEAM THEME: ROCKY MOUNTAIN LOW
When a coach goes just 10-22 in league play and his team finishes LAST in total conference offense two years running, one would figure a coaching change is in order. Not in Boulder. The Buffaloes rehired Dan Hawkins because they could not afford the cost of a buyout and a rehire. Talk about a sign of the times! The only team in the Big 12 not to use a spread offense, Colorado will turn to an offensive line that returns all five starters. A soft seven-game home schedule, only four true road games, revenge aplenty and an over-abundance of playing time for true freshman over the last three seasons, could actually find the Buffaloes roaming in a minor bowl. If not, the only sign you may see around the Boulder area is one that says ‘For Sale’ – no matter what the cost.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Kansas (11/6)

IOWA STATE – *8 / 5
TEAM THEME: PEEPING PAUL
When newly-hired HC Paul Rhoads first met with the team, he told them that they were going to win a bowl game in 2009. Did Paul see something nobody else did? After all, the Cyclones had gone 2-10 in 2008 and had not won a bowl game since 2004. Despite an offense that ranked last in the Big 12 in 2009, Rhoads was true to his word as an Insight Bowl victory over Minnesota capped off a surprising 7-6 season. The offensive numbers should improve in 2010 as eight starters return to Ames, including QB Austen Arnuad. Defensively, only five starters are back in the mix but the linebacking unit – the strength of the defense – returns three starters including tackling machine, Jesse Smith. Here’s some scholarly advice for Rhoads: with nine winning teams and eight bowlers on the docket, we suggest you take a long look at the schedule before making any promises.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Nebraska (11/6)

KANSAS – 8 / 7

TEAM THEME: WEIGHT AND SEE
After a mistreatment allegation, the big man has left the campus as Mark Mangino’s eight-year stint in Lawrence comes to an abrupt end. New HC Turner Gill knows he’ll have some big pants to fill and the former Nebraska star will bring along some heavy-hitting coordinators in Chuck Long and Carl Torbush. Star QB Todd Reesing and his 11,194 total yards and 90 TD’s have also departed. Not to worry. Gill turned a dormant Buffalo program into a conference champion in three years. Imagine what he could do with a team that has won 25 games over the past three seasons and returns 15 starters, including an entire offensive line. We realize the Big 12 is a large leap from the MAC but we also recall that Gill is a perfect 20-0 versus the conference in his playing days as a star QB. Been there – done that!
PASS

KANSAS STATE – 5 / 7
TEAM THEME: PHASE TWO, YEAR TWO
Kansas State’s silver-haired HC Bill Snyder proved age is only a number when he guided the 2009 Wildcats to bowl-eligible status. After a 3-year hiatus, the 70-year old Snyder returned to the Manhattan sidelines and looked to shore up a defense that was scorched for over 36 PPG, 479 YPG and 5.2 YPC the previous season. And shore up he did. The ‘Cats held seven opponents to under 20 points as the defense improved by 13 PPG and an incredible 139 YPG while allowing just 3.5 YPC. The combination of a now well-fortified defense (seven returning starters), a top-notch RB in Daniel Thomas (the Big 12 newcomer of the year) and a favorable early schedule (first true road game not until mid-October) holds promise for 2010. Old habits never die.
PLAY ON: vs. Oklahoma St (10/30)

MISSOURI – *8 / 8
TEAM THEME: CAT SCRATCH FEVER
Expect a big year from Missouri in 2010. Many believe that following their breakout season in 2007 (12-2), Gary Pinkel recruited a slew of talent – and that investment is about to pay some dividends. Not only do the Tigers return eight starters on each side of the ball, but 30 of the 44 players on the season-ending two-deep roster were either freshmen or sophomores – the second most in the nation last year. A season opening five-game schedule that includes three home games against FBS foes with a combined 8-28 record, a fourth home game against McNeese State and a neutral site match-up with 3-9 Illinois, should help these Tigers catch their tail early. If the Cats are going to have the year we think they’ll have, a 5-0 start is critical with only two of the season’s final seven games at home, including trips to Lincoln and Lubbock. Nonetheless, we’ll take the bait.
PLAY ON: vs. Nebraska (10/30)

NEBRASKA – *10 / 7
TEAM THEME: TWO YEARS GONE BY
Have the Huskers turned the corner? Bearing in mind they ranked No. 116 in scoring defense in 2007 (37.9 PPG) – the year before HC Bo Pelini arrived – and No. 1 last season (10.4 PPG), the answer is a resounding yes. Also consider they were 1-20 SU versus Top 20 ranked teams before a promising 3-2 showing last season. The former NFL assistant also has the Kids of the Corn playing their best ball late in the season, posting a stout 9-2 record from November out, including 7-1 in November alone (Bill’s Callahan’s previous 4-year regime only won a total of six November contests). 17 returning starters, with every ball carrier back in the mix and a favorable schedule that includes Texas at home and is sans Oklahoma, makes Nebraska worthy of a BCS futures play. Is that Springsteen’s ‘Glory Days’ we hear playing in those Lincoln cornfields?
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Colorado (11/26)

South Division

BAYLOR – *7 / 5
TEAM THEME: LET’S GET PHYSICAL
Perhaps no team in the land figures to benefit more from the return of a key player from injury than Baylor, as star QB Robert Griffin III re-claims his starting spot after tearing an ACL in Game Three last season. After a promising 2-1 start, the Bears went into hibernation (2-7) when Griffin went down to stay. HC Art Briles, however, has more than the return of his star on his mind as he looks to address a defense that allowed over 400 YPG in 2009. After the spring game, Briles noted, “Those guys are strong, fast, mean and tough… that’s what they need to be. They need to be aggressive and physical with a bad temper. That’s what we have to get to and that’s the way we have to play, because in the Big 12 South if you’re friendly and nice, you’re going to have a long season.” If RG3 can stay healthy and Briles can impose his will, these Bears will be anything but average.
PASS

OKLAHOMA – *10 / 6
TEAM THEME: KEEPING UP WITH THE JONESES
Despite losing three players in the first four picks of this year’s NFL draft – including Heisman trophy winner and all-time NCAA passing efficiency leader Sam Bradford – 23 full or part-time starters return. Included is SO QB Landry Jones, who led the nation’s freshman QBs in passing yards (3,198) and TD passes (26) last season. His yardage figure was also an OU record, breaking the mark set by Bradford in 2007. Expect Jones to surpass those numbers this season as all-everything RB DeMarco Murray and record-setting WR Ryan Broyles stay onboard the Sooner Schooner in 2010. Whether by land or air, the OU attack shouldn’t miss a beat as Jones and company figure to keep up with the Bradfords. Remember, OU faced the 2nd toughest schedule in the land in 2009 and four of its five losses were by a total of 12 points.
PLAY ON: vs. Texas Tech (11/13)

OKLAHOMA STATE – 6 / 4
TEAM THEME: “O”, NO
It’s not often a 9-win season is considered a bummer. That may have been the case in Stillwater last season, though, when the Cowboys were shut out in their season finale at rival Oklahoma and then held to seven points in a bowl loss to Ole Miss. When the dust settled, a highly-touted, veteran offense saw their production fall 13 points and 120 YPG as injuries, player suspensions and being a ‘marked team’ finally took its toll. The ‘D’ was actually a bright spot last year but with only four starters back in the mix, HC Mike Gundy realizes he may have to win a few shootouts. Enter OC Dana Holgorsen. He brings his playbook from Houston where his offense was tops in the nation last season. Star RB Kendall Hunter is back to tote the pigskin but untested 26-year old JR QB Brandon Weeden takes over for Zac Robinson. It’s time to man up, ‘Boys!
PASS

TEXAS – 6 / 7
TEAM THEME: BIG (12) BULLIES
The Horns were a shoulder-injury short of winning a national championship last season. When QB Colt McCoy went down in the BCS title game, so did Texas’ hopes of beating Alabama. McCoy is off to the NFL and in steps Garrett Gilbert to direct an attack that will be moving away from the spread offense to more of a running game in 2010. This move will take some pressure off Gilbert, the 2008 High School Player of the Year, and hopefully improve a ground game that averaged a mere 148 YPG – their worst since 2002. No such adjustments are needed on the defensive front where the UT rush defense held opponents to a nation-low 72 YPG on the ground. Eight bowlers do roam this year’s schedule but six of those come from the Big 12 where the Horns are 16-1 SU over the last two seasons. The first two games in October will likely decide their fate.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Texas Tech (9/18)

TEXAS A&M – *6 / 9
TEAM THEME: WHO STOPS J.J.?
The Jerrod Johnson show returns to College Station for its final season and it may draw a bigger audience in these parts than ‘Who shot J.R.?’ Johnson, a second-team all Big 12 performer, keyed the 5th best offense in the land by throwing for a school record 3,217 yards and 28 TD’s while adding another 455 yards on the ground. He saved his best performance for Texas, throwing for 342 yards and rushing for 97 more. J.J. is joined by a cast of kids that formed the youngest roster in the nation last year. While the offense will take the lead role, it’s imperative for the defense to add some support. Mike Sherman will rely on new DC Tim DeRuyter to shore up a stop unit that ranked 105th in the nation. DeRuyter, who led Air Force to a No. 11 team defense ranking last season, will have eight starters to work with as he incorporates his 3-4 scheme. With a season-ender at Texas, the finale should be scintillating.
PASS

TEXAS TECH – *8 / 6
TEAM THEME: JAMES GANG
With Craig and Adam James’ approval, Tommy Tuberville steps in to take over for Mike Leach, in one of the major coaching moves in Division 1 this season. After getting unceremoniously dumped by Auburn, Tuberville now walks into the Lubbock fire. Leach won 84 games in his 10 seasons with Tech – and along with Texas and Oklahoma, formed the winningest trio of teams in the nation from the same conference over the last three seasons (276 victories). Tuberville welcomes back 14 returning starters, including QB Taylor Potts. The word, though, is the QB job is open between Taylor and fan favorite Steven Sheffield (rumor has it that whoever completes more passes to Adam in the spring will likely get the nod). Whomever Tuberville decides on, he better make sure of one thing: he leads the Raiders to a bowl – ‘cause the fans sure got used to it with Leach.
PLAY ON: vs. Houston (11/27) – *KEY as dog

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2010, 08:34 PM

LSU Preview

The LSU Tigers could make a run at a national championship this season. Yet it’s also possible that Coach Les Miles loses his job after this year too if the Tigers underachieve again and lose to both Florida and Alabama again. That probably seems hard to believe, but the Tigers have lost a total of nine games in the past two seasons – four total to the Gators and Tide -- after winning the 2007 national title. Certainly Miles’ seat is lukewarm if not hot.

The key to this team likely will be QB Jordan Jefferson and whether he can emerge as a top-flight quarterback. The talent is certainly there, and he had a pretty good 2009 when he completed 61% of his passes for 2,166 yards and 17 touchdowns with seven interceptions. However, he reportedly has struggled this offseason and been outperformed by Jarrett Lee. But the job is Jefferson’s for now and he’ll be expected to improve upon LSU’s 182 yards per game passing average from a year ago.

Former top QB recruit Russell Shepard has moved fully to wide receiver now, and the Tigers say they will get him plenty of touches whether it’s throwing to him, handing it off to him or snapping directly to him in the Wildcat. He only caught five passes for 34 yards as a true freshman last year and ran for 277 yards and two touchdowns. He, Reuben Randle and Terrence Toliver could – could – be a dynamic trio.

The LSU running game struggled big time last year (three games with less than 50 yards), but there’s plenty of talent there with Richard Murphy, Stevan Ridley and redshirt freshman Michael Ford, who reportedly has been off the charts good. However, the offensive line was a mess less year – the biggest reason LSU finished 112th in the nation in total offense – so that unit must improve. The key player will be Joseph Barksdale, who moves to the left side. There are thus two new starters on the right. As long as that group is just solid the Tigers should be SEC contenders. Overall there are six starters back on offense from last year.

The defense only brings back four players and the star on that side of the ball is cornerback Patrick Peterson, one of the nation’s most athletic players. The Tigers also moved Jai Eugene to safety, so they may now have the fastest secondary in the nation overall. They will be very tough to throw against. The defensive line also must be better than last year, as it was largely at fault for LSU finishing 46h in the nation against the run and 87th in sacks. Lazarius Levingston is the lone returning starter there although Drake Nevis is probably the key player and will be counted on big time for his pass-rushing ability.

Here is LSU’s 2010 schedule:
Sept. 4 vs. North Carolina (Atlanta)
Sept. 11 at Vanderbilt
Sept. 18 vs. Mississippi State
Sept. 25 vs. West Virginia
Oct. 2 vs. Tennessee
Oct. 9 at Florida
Oct. 16 vs. McNeese State
Oct. 23 at Auburn
Nov. 6 vs. Alabama
Nov. 13 vs. La.-Monroe
Nov. 20 vs. Ole Miss
Nov. 27 at Arkansas

Very tough schedule here as LSU could potentially face three conference champions in North Carolina, West Virginia and Florida/Alabama. Thus you have to give the Tigers a pass for those two home games with overmatched McNeese State and Louisiana-Monroe.

That North Carolina defense will certainly test that inconsistent Tiger offense right away as the Heels are absolutely stacked on that side of the ball. If the Tigers can beat UNC, they should be 5-0 heading to Gainesville. The Gators’ 13-3 victory over LSU in Baton Rouge last year was their lowest winning point total since Urban Meyer took over the program in 2005. And that was with Tim Tebow, who obviously is no longer with Florida. That UF win also snapped LSU’s 32-game winning streak in Saturday night home games. Can the Tigers return the favor this year? I say no.

That Auburn game certainly could be tricky, but LSU shut down that high-powered attack last year (a 31-10 win) and basically gets to prepare for the Tigers for two weeks with McNeese State coming beforehand. Then LSU gets an off week before the huge matchup with Alabama, which could well decide the SEC West. Unfortunately for the Tigers, the Tide also are off the week before, so that negates any advantage. Bama wins a close one.

Mississippi shouldn’t be much problem for LSU but then I think the Hogs do beat the Tigers in Fayetteville. Arkansas probably should have won last year’s game in Baton Rouge and if any QB can have success against the stellar LSU secondary it’s probably Ryan Mallett.

So that’s a 9-3 record and probably another trip to a Florida New Year’s Day bowl. The Tigers had been a perfect 4-0 under Miles in bowls until last year’s ugly offensive effort in a 19-17 defeat in the slop to Penn State in the Capital One Bowl. The Tigers are +3500 to win the BCS title and that’s actually decent value if you want to roll the dice that everything breaks their way this year. It’s possible but just not very likely.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2010, 08:35 PM

Penn State preview

Overall it was a pretty successful 2009 season for the Penn State Nittany Lions as they finished second in the Big Ten with a 10-2 record. However, PSU fans will always wonder what could have been, as the Lions had both Ohio State and Iowa come to Happy Valley last year and PSU couldn’t beat either team with the offense struggling mightily in both. That left Penn State tied for second in the conference with the Hawkeyes, but Iowa and OSU got the BCS bowl berths and Penn State was sent to the Capital One Bowl, where it edged a solid LSU team to finish 11-2. Any time a Big Ten team beats an SEC team of late, that news.

There are 12 starters (seven offense, five defense) and a kicker returning this year for Joe Paterno, but the team definitely has some question marks. The biggest by far is at quarterback, where record-setting Daryll Clark has moved on. That means either sophomore Kevin Newsome, former walk-on Matt McGloin or true freshman Paul Jones will take over under center. While Jones looked the best in the spring game, it’s hard to imagine Paterno handing the ball to a true frosh, so Newsome is expected to start the season at No. 1. Newsome appeared in 10 games last season basically in mop-up duty, completing eight of 11 passes for 66 yards while running the ball 20 times for 95 yards and two touchdowns.

And expect Penn State to be a heavy running team in 2010 with running backs Evan Royster – who is 482 yards away from becoming the school’s all-time rushing leader – and Stephfon Green both back. But when Newsome or whoever throws, three of the team’s top four receivers from last year also return. The offensive line struggled at times last year and three players return from that unit, but the coaching staff did some moving around this offseason, most notably taking All-Big Ten center Stefan Wisniewski and moving him to guard.

On defense, the line should be solid despite losing Jared Odrick and the secondary one of the best in the Big Ten, but Penn State was gutted at linebacker as the excellent trio of Navarro Bowman, Sean Lee and Josh Hull all are gone. We should see this season if Penn State really is Linebacker U – the key could be the return of Michael Mauti, who has the potential to be a star but tore his ACL before last season and sat out. Will he be 100 percent come September?

Here is Penn State’s 2010 schedule:
Sept. 4 vs. Youngstown State
Sept. 11 at Alabama
Sept. 18 vs. Kent State
Sept. 25 vs. Temple
Oct. 2 at Iowa
Oct. 9 vs. Illinois
Oct. 23 at Minnesota
Oct. 30 vs. Michigan
Nov. 6 vs. Northwestern
Nov. 13 at Ohio State
Nov. 20 at Indiana (Landover, Md.)
Nov. 27 vs. Michigan State

JoePa needs six more wins to reach 400 career victories, and that’s a lock. Needless to say, the non-conference schedule should be a piece of cake other than that huge one on Sept. 11 at defending national champion Alabama (that’s a telling day in the Big Ten because Ohio State hosts Miami that day as well). Can Penn State really go into Tuscaloosa with an inexperienced quarterback and upset the loaded Tide? No way.

And really the only places you need look for potential losses this year are in road games – the home slate should be a clean sweep, although Michigan State has the potential to be better than people think and possibly pull the upset. You are probably looking at losses again this year to Iowa and Ohio State with the games coming in their house. PSU never fares well in Iowa City – remember that Nov. 8, 2008, game Lions fans? – and has won once in eight tries in Columbus since joining the Big Ten. It is odd that the home team has lost the last three in the PSU-OSU rivalry.

In recent years, Penn State in reality has beaten only who it should. Of the school’s 51 victories in the last five years, only 16 have come against BCS teams that finished with winning records, and five of those came in 2005. Just three of the wins came against BCS teams that finished with double-digit win totals in those years. And that sounds about right this year. PSU will win the nine games in which it will be favored and drop the three roadies in which it won’t. Look for oddsmakers to put the Lions’ win total right at nine.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2010, 08:36 PM

Trends to Watch

We’re just a couple of months away from the start of the college football season. And that means that most gamblers have been hard at work, looking up all the information they can on players, coaching tendencies and anything else they feel is pertinent. The other set of bettors are too busy searching for a free Big Gulp and why nobody has filled their cheese steak.

There has been no shortage of breakdowns of the upcoming season here on VegasInsider.com. We’ve talked about good Heisman prop wagers, backing unranked favorites and some good sleepers to win their BCS conferences. That doesn’t even take into account that we’ve dissected the biggest games of the year.

Now it’s time for us to start looking at some situational trends that can help tighten things up before dropping our money on a game. These are some things to keep an eye out for during the 2010 campaign.

Revenge is a dish best served on the field…

Losses are never a good thing in any sport, but they’re magnified in college football. And those setbacks are quality fuel for coaches to fire up their teams to exact some revenge.

Ohio State’s Jim Tressel has been one of the best coaches to back when it comes to covering in revenge contests. The Buckeyes have gone 12-4 against the spread in 16 revenge spots since Tressel came to Columbus. We’re going to get a chance to act on that play on Oct. 23 when the Boilermakers come to Ohio Stadium. Purdue was the Buckeyes’ lone Big Ten setback last year, falling 26-18 as 13 ½-point road faves.

Arizona has also shown itself to be a proper revenge option for the gambling public with Mike Stoops running the show. Stoops has had some issues since taking over the Wildcats in 2004. But that has helped us out for our purposes by going 25-12 ATS in revenge games. They’re going to afford us four spots to play on this situation this season with games vs. Iowa (9/18), Washington (10/23), California (9/25) and at Oregon (11/26).

For every good coach out there to play on the revenge factor, there are guys that don’t know crap from Crisco. One such mental midget is LSU’s Les Miles. The Tigers have not fared great for gamblers in revenge spots under Miles’ tenure, evidenced by a 2-7 ATS mark. Given that the three losses of 2009 came against Florida, Alabama and Mississippi, the odds of this trend reversing is virtually nil.

Profitable Rest…

Having a week off between matches is always welcome for the players and coaches. That extra rest can help the bettors as well. Even better for us is that this is a spot focuses more on the non-marquee programs.

Rice is one such team with David Bailiff running the show. The Owls have covered the spread in all five of their games coming off of rest in Bailiff’s first three years in Houston. They’ll get the chance to remain perfect with a road trip to Tulsa on Nov. 13.

Most people think of Vanderbilt for its quality education amidst one of the country’s best cities in Nashville. But the Commodores are quite adept to keep games close after a little time off under bobby Johnson. The ‘Dores have posted a 6-2 ATS mark in their eight games coming off of rest. They’ll get to act on this come Oct. 2 with a trip up to Connecticut to take on the Huskies.

Troy is normally a team that gives trouble to BCS schools, but they can’t handle playing on time off for Larry Blakeney. The Trojans have gone just 4-11 ATS over his 20 years with the program. And the right time for us to fade them will be on Oct. 30 at Louisiana-Monroe.

What a spread…

We’ve all heard the phrase “the third time is the charm,” but how often does that really come into play? Plenty of teams have come through with back-to-back wins against the spread over the last three years…278 of them to be precise. The third game in that troika has seen those clubs go 210-68 SU, but just 136-140-2 ATS. Despite those mediocre numbers for the whole, we can find some quality to wager upon.

One of the best teams to play as a home favorite after back-to-back ATS wins has been Troy, which might surprise some after knowing its issues on rest. But the Trojans know what they’re doing in this role by going 6-0 SU and ATS over the last three seasons.

The Air Force Academy has handled this situation with military efficiency. A 6-1 SU and ATS record for the Falcons in this role should be considered ample evidence. It will take some doing this year since they’re replacing six starters on both the offense and defense.

One of the schools to bet against as a home favorite after failing to cover the spread resides in Morgantown, West Virginia. The Mountaineers have gone 0-3 SU and ATS in this spot over their last three seasons.

Buffalo is just as good a side to fade in this role, evidenced by a 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS mark. Penn State has even gone 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS when placed in this situation. Same thing goes for Auburn, where they are 4-0 SU but 1-3 ATS when listed as a home “chalk” after back-to-back ATS wins.

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2010 College Football Previews

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