2010 College Football Previews

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C-USA Preview

Welcome Back’ is the theme in 2010 in the C-USA. Its 2009 Most Valuable Player (Houston QB Case Keenum), its 2009 Defensive Player of the Year (UCF DE Bruce Miller) and its 2009 Special Teams Player of the Year (East Carolina WR/KR Dwayne Harris), all seniors, are back,

In addition, former Memphis RB Larry Porter and former ECU DB Ruffin McNeill each return to their alma maters as new head coaches in 2010.

This up and coming loop has sent six teams to post-season in four of the past five seasons, while going 10-6 SU and 12-4 ATS against .666 or greater opposition in those games.

Southern Miss takes an eight-year bowl skein into this campaign.

SMU was the most-improved team in the FBS during the 2009 season. The Mustangs won seven more games last year than they did in 2008.

In closing, remember this about this never-say-die conference: since its inception, CUSA underdogs are 21-13 ATS in non-conference battles in which both teams are undefeated, including 17-8 ATS as a dog of seven or more points.

It’s like John Sebastian once said, “Yeah we tease him a lot cause we've hot him on the spot, welcome back, welcome back, welcome back…

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

East Division

ALABAMA BIRMINGHAM – 8 / 9
TEAM THEME: BLAZING INFERNO
The Blazers have improved each year under HC Neil Callaway but the Birmingham brigade is clamoring for the 4th-year HC to bring home UAB’s first winning season (and bowl appearance) since 2004. It appears Callaway is starting to buckle under the pressure and is looking for the quick fix as he signed a nation-high 12 junior-college transfers. “We got a good mixture of people at every position,’ said Callaway. “I really think we helped ourselves at every spot and with the number of JC guys that we’ve signed, I think we got some immediate help.” Help is on the way in the form of nine returning starters for a defense that slipped a titch in 2009. The 22nd-ranked offense, which was boosted by the return of the entire unit last year, should once again be productive with the return of eight starters – though Callaway will have to replace versatile QB Joe Webb. The heat is on.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. East Carolina (11/13)

CENTRAL FLORIDA – 8 / 7
TEAM THEME: ODD OCCURRENCE
George O’Leary may want to turn the calendar ahead – say a year from now. The 7th-year HC has had terrific success in odd numbered years (26-14, three bowl appearances) while the even-numbered seasons have been brutal (8-27, zero bowls). If 2010 is going to show any promise, it will start with a rush defense that was tops in Conference USA and No. 4 nationally. C-USA defensive player of the year, Bruce Miller, returns for his senior season. The All-America candidate leads all active players nationally with 27 sacks and 44 tackles for a loss. Offensively, junior RB Byrnn Harvey (1,109 rushing yards, 14 TD’s) spearheads the Knights attack. Harvey actually had more yards in his sophomore season than highly-touted Kevin Smith had in his second year with the Knights. ‘Even’ though the calendar says 2010, the Knights ‘oddly’ enough should be competitive.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. UAB (10/6)

EAST CAROLINA – 5 / 2
TEAM THEME: ‘RUFFIN IT’
After escalating the ECU program to new heights, Skip Holtz couldn’t say no to a multi-million dollar offer from South Florida – his reward for putting the Pirates on the map. Enter former ECU defensive back and assistant, Ruffin McNeill. College football’s 13th minority head coach inherits a defense that led the nation in red-zone scoring defense (71.6%) and one that enjoyed the squad’s highest take-away total (34) since 1996. It may be awhile before Greenville sees those numbers again as McNeil also inherits a stop unit that returns just two starters and no linemen. While Holtz had the luxury of 52 returning letterman and 16 returning starters in 2009, Ruffin won’t enjoy the same – just 43 returnees and 7 total starters back for 2010. Early stops at Blacksburg and Chapel Hill will have us jumping ship before this voyage gets set for its September sail.
PLAY ON: vs. SMU (11/26)

MARSHALL – *7 / 7
TEAM THEME: THE DOCTOR IS IN
A native of Hurricane, WV and widely regarded as one of the country’s best recruiters, John ‘Doc’ Holliday brings an impressive resumé to Huntington. An associate head coach at West Virginia and Florida, Holliday will need to operate with the skill of a surgeon in order to escape the wrath of a brutal season-opening schedule that is laced with seven consecutive bowl teams – who combined for a 60-33 record. Fourteen returning starters, including a pair of QB’s that have started 24 games the past two seasons, should help in the procedure. So should a home field that has seen the Herd post a 118-19 record at Joan C. Edwards Stadium. Need some bar bet material? That .866 win percentage is No. 1 all-time in Division 1 football as Alabama (.825) and Bear Bryant Stadium rank a distant second. Holliday will like those house calls.
PLAY ON: vs. East Carolina (10/23)

MEMPHIS – 7 / 7
TEAM THEME: PORTER HOUSE
When Tommy West was pink-slipped in early November last season, he held a fiery press conference saying, “This is not a good day at the office. We’ve got to help this football program… or do away with it.” Help is on the way in the form of new coach Larry Porter, former MSU running back and most recently RB coach and chief recruiter at LSU. Asking every player to ‘Invest in the Helmet’, Porter contends all positions are open. Porter’s first priority will be patching up a defense that was over 100 YPG worse last season than in 2008.With only one QB on the roster that has taken a collegiate snap and rail-thin at WR where the top two receivers in school history are gone, it may be a while before dividends from his recruiting efforts are realized. Porter and the Tigers look to be raw in 2010.
PASS

SOUTHERN MISS – *4 / 9
TEAM THEME: HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS
We’re not quite ready to give another tip of the hat to Larry Fedora but the third-year head coach has kept one important Southern Miss tradition going – winning. Thanks to a season-ending five-game win streak in 2008 and season-opening hat trick in 2009, the Golden Eagles have recorded 16 straight winning campaigns… albeit, by the skin of their teeth. But 2009 saw the both sides of the ball take a slight step backwards. Nine returning starters should help the stop unit turn it around but improving an offense that loses record-setting RB Damion Fletcher and four offensive linemen will be Fedora’s main concern. The good news is there is plenty of experience at the QB position with the expected return of Austin Davis, who sat out most of last season after tearing a ligament in his foot. ‘Favre’ be it for us to say, but something could be amiss in Hattiesburg this season.
PLAY ON: vs. UAB (10/30)

West Division

HOUSTON – *9 / 7
TEAM THEME: A ‘CASE’ FOR THE HEISMAN
QB Case Keenum and his supporting cast are back and the Cougars are billing him as a legitimate Heisman candidate. And why not? His numbers speak for themselves as he is on the cusp of breaking every NCAA total offense and passing mark. With his top three wideouts all back (each with 85 or more catches), Keenum will likely become the first QB in college football history to throw for 5,000 yards three years in succession. How good has this offense been, you ask? Over the past two seasons, the Cougars have been held to under 28 points just three times while ringing up 40 or more points on 16 occasions! A couple of disappointing season-ending losses, including a throttling by Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl, should have Keenum and company on the offensive early – and quite often.
PLAY ON: vs. Central Florida (11/5)

RICE – 9 / 9
TEAM THEME: BABY OWLS
The biggest collapse of all FBS programs in 2009 (from 10-3 to 2-10) resulted in a major overhaul to David Bailiff’s coaching staff. In Bailiff’s defense (or lack of one last year), 75 starts were lost to injuries. As a result, 14 starters on the 2009 squad were either freshmen or sophomores on the two-deep roster, matching Louisiana Tech for the youngest starting lineup in the nation. In fact, 22 Owls made their first collegiate start last year. The owlets started to show a little maturity late in the season with a pair of home wins over Tulane and UTEP. The good news is 18 starters who experienced those victories are back. The bad news is they may have to wait an extra week as their 2010 opener finds them playing Texas. That may not be so bad because, like last year, there’s only one way to go – and that’s up!
PLAY ON: as dog vs. SMU (10/2) – *KEY

SMU – *8 / 7
TEAM THEME: PAROLED
Apparently there IS life after death. 2009 saw the Mustangs go bowling for the first time since 1984, two years prior to their infamous ‘death sentence.’ It didn’t take long for June Jones to put his stamp on the program as both the offense and defense took huge strides. After being outscored 458-202 in 2008, the Mustangs got the better of the opposition in 2009 by a 380-359 count – a 277-point turnaround! No wonder they improved a nation’s-best seven games last season. They were also the only team in the country to outgain Houston during the regular season and hold Nevada’s potent rushing attack to over 200 yards below their season average. All this, with the 4th youngest team in the nation as 29 off 44 players on the two-deep roster were either freshmen or sophomores. With a target squarely on their backs, can the Mustangs once again live to tell about it?
PLAY AGAINST: vs. UTEP (11/6)

TEXAS EL PASO – *7 / 4
TEAM THEME: DASHING AND DARING
It’s been five years since HC Mike Price has brought a winner to West Texas but there’s a lot to fall in love with in El Paso this year – and it’s not a Mexican girl. QB Trevor Vittatoe, who broke UTEP passing records with three 3,000-yard passing seasons, is back. So is RB Donald Buckram (1,594 rushing yards) – one of only two backs (Toby Gerhart) to rush for 200-plus yards in three separate contests last season. “I think he’ll be even better this year. He’s bigger. He could be 200 pounds by the time the season starts,” gushes Price of Buckram. Eight all-conference honorees also return to El Paso in 2010. The schedule lends support to a big year, as well, as the Miners face only one team in the first eight games that sported a winning record in 2009. If Price can figure out a way to win the close ones (lost five games by a TD or less), then this season could be as “wild as the West Texas wind.”
PLAY ON: as dog vs. UAB (10/16)

TULANE – *7 / 4
TEAM THEME: TOLEDO, TOO LATE
After three seasons and a 9-27 record, Bob Toledo has learned that coaching in New Orleans is not so easy. That is, if you’re the head man at Tulane. With the loss of leading rusher Andre Anderson, another big losing campaign is likely and it’s doubtful Toledo will be back to man the Green Wave sidelines for his wooden anniversary. While there are no ball carriers with any significant experience on the roster, QB Ryan Griffin is back after starting the final six games and putting up solid numbers (1,143 yards, 8 TD’s) as a freshman in 2009. Toledo will have to improve on a 1-7 conference mark in each of the last two seasons if he has any chance of staying Green. A four-game home stand late in the year may help his cause but the feeling here is it will be too little, too late. Wave goodbye, Bob.
PLAY ON: vs. Army (10/9)

TULSA – *9 / 5
TEAM THEME: MISSION: REVENGE
A 5-7 campaign, on the heels of four straight winning seasons in which they averaged 9.5 wins a year, makes the Hurricane a certified ‘Mission Team’ in 2010. The mission will be to rejuvenate an offense that dropped 160 YPG and 18 PPG. The mission leader is QB G.J. Kinne who passed for 2,732 yards and 22 TD’s, while also leading the team in rushing yards (393 yards) and TD’s (5). Kinne is the only player in school history to pass for 300 yards and rush for 100 yards in the same game. WR/KR Damaris Johnson, the nation’s 2009 leader in all-purpose yards with a 224 YPG, looks to make another statement in 2010. Three of the top five tacklers return to a defense that actually improved in points against but slipped in total yards allowed. Despite a road schedule that includes four winning teams and Notre Dame, a soft home schedule makes this mission entirely possible.
PLAY ON: vs. Southern Miss (11/27) – *Key as dog

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Independents Preview

Once again, like last year, just three teams make up the INDEPENDENTS yet all three have a say on the participants in the 2010 National Championship BCS game when theses Indy’s take on no less than 16 combined opponents that landed bowl bids last season.

Rest assured, without a conference affiliation, this self-governing group holds plenty of veto power when it comes to dashing the dreams of many BCS Championship Game aspirants.

All eyes will be Notre Dame and their new head coach, Brian Kelly. The pressure to succeed will certainly be enormous. He can find solace in the fact the previous five first-year head coaches that succeeded him in South Bend since 1980 combined to go 36-24 SU and 30-28-2 ATS in their debut season with the Irish. Incidentally, those same coaches were 2-8-1 ATS collectively as favorites from Game Nine out. Caveat emptor.

Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

ARMY – *8 / 8
TEAM THEME: ABOUT FACE
The Rich Ellerson era began with a bang in West Point last year when the Cadets won the most games in a season since 1996. The next step for the new regime will be to lead the Black Knights to their 1st winning season since that 1996 campaign. It shouldn’t be an uphill fight as QB Trent Steelman, who started all 12 games last year as a freshman and led the team in rushing and passing yards, returns for his sophomore season. It also doesn’t hurt with only four bowlers – and no pre-season Top 25 squads – dotting the 2010 schedule. It’s easy to like a coach like Ellerson with his military background and a team whose motto is ‘Duty, Honor, Country’ and we look for this military historian to make some history of his own this season. These new-look Cadets have plenty of options – but it’s the triple-option that has fans at Michie Stadium buzzing these days.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. North Texas (9/18)

NAVY – *7 / 5
TEAM THEME: COMMANDING PERFORMANCE
After back-to-back 8-5 seasons, Ken Niumatalolo’s third year in Annapolis was a charm as the Middies capped off a record-tying 10-win season with a convincing bowl win over Missouri. All hands are on deck for another double-digit win campaign as QB Ricky Dobbs returns for his senior season. Despite playing with a broken kneecap over the final six games and missing the majority of two games, Dobbs scored a school-record 27 TD’s. After leading the nation in rushing four straight seasons, Navy finished fourth last year. But the disciplined Middies led the nation in fewest penalties and won their 7th straight Commander-in-Chief trophy. Their four losses in 2009, including those at Ohio State and Pitt, were versus foes that were a combined 36-16. No such battles this season as only four winning teams grace the schedule and none likely to crack the Top 25. Clear sailing ahead!
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Notre Dame (10/23)

NOTRE DAME – 6 / 8
TEAM THEME: BEND IT LIKE BRIAN
When he hit the South Bend campus, Brian Kelly was reminded of a shining moment in Notre Dame football: since the advent of the AP Poll, only one team – the Fighting Irish - has finished No. 1 three out of four seasons (1946, ’47 and ’48). He was also quickly reminded that his predecessor was 1-8 vs. Top 10 opponents – worst in school history. In fact, the Irish will take an 11-game losing skein against ranked opponents into the 2010 season. To which our database replies: Kelly’s teams step up in big games as evidenced by his amazing 13-1 SU and 12-1-1 ATS mark as a favorite or a dog against .750 or greater foes. Even the loss of QB Jimmy Claussen won’t have us looking in another direction as Kelly’s ‘next man up’ system has seen six QB’s make their starting debut the last three years. Only three true road games should have this team hell-bent on winning in 2010.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Boston College (10/2)

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MAC Preview

Entering its 64th year of gridiron competition, the MID AMERICAN CONFERENCE will once again play a balanced schedule, meaning each team will play eight conference games in 2010. Let’s hope the results are more balanced that last year when only two teams in the MAC West Division managed to finish the season with a winning record. This on the heels of the 2008 campaign when only Buffalo was on the plus side of the ledger inside the East Division.

This is definitely a league that is wide open and one that likes to mix things up. Seven different teams have appeared in the last five MAC Championship games while 11 different MAC schools have appeared in a bowl game in the last five seasons.

Finally, keep this note handy once the bowl games roll around: since the 2008 calendar year, MAC bowlers are 1-11 SU and 0-10-2 ATS!

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

East Division

AKRON – *6 / 9
TEAM THEME: GOOD YEAR
After suffering his fourth straight losing season, J.D. Brookhart was quickly bounced from town. Last year’s three-win season was the Zips’ lowest since 1997 and inevitably meant some rubber was going to meet the road. New HC Ron Ianello leaves his South Bend receivers coach gig and inherits the third youngest team in the nation: twenty-nine players from last season’s two-deep squad were either freshman or sophomores. Ianello does welcome back nine starters from a defense that has improved each of the last two seasons and he may be able to zip through the majority of his non-conference matchups. However, he’ll need to rely on all of his offensive prowess to repair an attack that regressed 96 YPG and averaged less than 20 points per contest if Akron hopes to rebound from last year’s fiasco. Look for the ball to bounce Ianello’s way in 2010.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Kentucky (9/18)

BOWLING GREEN – 3 / 4
TEAM THEME: TOO GREEN TO BOWL
The Falcons were picked to finish 5th in the MAC East Division a year ago. After a 1-4 start the pundits appeared on target, but a 6-1 finish lifted the Falcons and rookie HC Dave Clawson to a winning campaign and a trip to the alleys. Another slow start might be in the offing as Clawson must replace 15 starters and 18 seniors from last year’s squad – including QB Tyler Sheehan, who accounted for 97% of the team’s passing yards since 2007 and star WR Freddie Barnes, who set an NCAA record with 155 receptions last year. This depleted roster must also deal with a schedule that finds them on the road for five of their first seven contests. With only five games taking place in Doyt Perry Stadium, a strong case for a reversal of fortune could be made this season. No Bowling for these Green Falcons in 2010.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Troy (9/4)

BUFFALO – 6 / 8
TEAM THEME: WINGING IT
After resisting tempting offers the previous year, a five-win season had Turner (Gill) putting on the burners and heading for Kansas. Jeff Quinn, a long-time assistant to Brian Kelly, takes over the reins. The veteran OC will be looking to install a new spread offense in upstate New York. Quinn, however, will need to find replacements at QB and the top two WR spots from an offense that averaged over 400 YPG. On the bright side, four offensive linemen are back and eight starters return from a defense that allowed a respectable 24 points and 343 yards per game. With four of their first six games in other pastures, the Bulls’ defense will need to lead the stampede and give Quinn’s offensive system time to gel. We’ll need to see more before we run and gun with these new-look Bulls.
PASS

KENT STATE – *9 / 7
TEAM THEME: FLASH FORWARD
An 0-3 finish denied the Flashes a winning season for the first time since 2001. An offense that dropped 73 YPG and 7 PPG was the main culprit but it should turn into a strength for HC Doug Martin as nine starters return, including QB Spencer Keith who tossed for over 2,100 yards and 14 TD’s as a freshman in 2009. Keith will, once again, be hooking up with WR Tyshon Goode, who excelled in his freshman season while hauling in a team-leading 53 passes and 5 TD’s. The backfield is deep as four RB’s who have combined to rush for over 5,200 yards in their collegiate careers are back in the mix. If Kent can weather a storm that finds them on the road early and often, look for the Flashes to come up Golden in 2010. A year of experience and a season-ending schedule that finds them home for four of their final five games ensures no late-season collapse this year.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Ohio U (11/26) – *KEY off loss

MIAMI, OHIO – *8 / 9
TEAM THEME: ROCK THE CRADLE
Miami’s ‘Cradle of Coaches’ (Paul Brown, Carm Cozza, Paul Dietzel, Weeb Ewbank, Ara Parseghian, John Pont and Bo Schembechler) likely turned over in their graves after witnessing the Redhawks cough up a nation-high 32 giveaways to opponents last season. Injuries forced first-year HC Michael Haywood to turn to a bevy of freshmen and sophomores, resulting in a turnover-plagued, 1-11 season. Included in the Pampers’ parade was QB Zac Dysert, who passed for over 2,600 yards as a redshirt freshman. Haywood better have this group of toddlers ‘turnover trained’ as they leave their Oxford crib for seven games this season, including stops at Gainesville, Missouri and Cincinnati. The feeling here is Haywood might throw a temper tantrum of his own before this season is said and done.
PLAY ON: vs. Kent St (10/2) – *KEY as dog

OHIO U – *7 / 7
TEAM THEME: BOBBING AND WEAVING
We were as wrong as the day is long on our assessment of the Bobcats last year. Or at least on the SU and ATS scoreboards – and that’s what ultimately counts! It was our contention that OU would not improve on a 4-8 mark from 2008 without better defensive play and fewer mistakes. The defense did not improve at all while the offense regressed 50 YPG – yet the Bobbies won nine games and hit the alleys. We’ll press our bet in 2010, as teams that enjoyed great success without improving their numbers are normally a sure-fire disappointments the following season. In our defense, we turn to our highly popular Midweek Alert newsletter, which points out that the Bobcats were just 4-10 ‘In The Stats’ despite the 9-5 SU and 8-5 ATS marks in 2009. Outside of a trip to Columbus, the schedule doesn’t appear too daunting. However, after all, you can only ‘Bob’ and weave for so long.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Bowling Green (10/9)

TEMPLE – *9 / 7
TEAM THEME: THE ‘EYES’ HAVE IT
MAC Coach of the Year, Al Golden, took the Owls to new heights last year as Temple enjoyed their first winning season since 1990, their first league title since 1967 and their first bowl appearance in 30 years. The news gets even better as 16 starters return to Philly, including conference defensive Player of the Year and league leader in sacks, DE Adrian Robinson. Nine of those starters, led by SR QB Vaughn Charlton and RB Bernard Pierce, who rushed for 1,361 yards and 16 TD’s as a true freshman, return to an offense that tallied 30 PPG last season. There’s plenty to like about this group and its coach. With a tough non-conference schedule, there may not be a lot of hooting early but it would be wise to keep both eyes on these Owls. The way we see it, the later in the season, the better for this nocturnal bunch.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Miami Oh (11/23)

West Division

BALL ST – *10 / 7
TEAM THEME: PARRISH THE THOUGHT
Could this be the year Stan Parrish (4-42 SU) finally shakes the enigma of being in over his head as an FBS head coach? The signs are there. Since 2005, the Cardinals have committed the 5th fewest turnovers (87) in the nation. The usually well-stocked Ball State offense returned only four starters last season, and it showed as the output dropped by 148 YPG. There’s no such dilemma this season, however, as the offense returns virtually intact, led by all-MAC RB MiQuale Lewis. Stan would be wise to rely on the 3rd all-time leading rusher in BSU history to carry the load if he wants to continue to man the Muncie sidelines. By season’s end, we’ll know if it’s either ‘Stan the Man’ or ‘Stan gets banned.’ One thing we know for sure – Parrish will have to learn how to beat .500 or greater opponents (1-28-1) if he doesn’t want the ‘Ball’ to drop any further.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Western Michigan (10/9)

CENTRAL MICHIGAN – 6 / 5
TEAM THEME: THE FEVOUR’S GONE
There’s no more ‘Fevour’ hanging around the Mt. Pleasant campus but new HC Dan Enos may still want to take a couple of aspirins. Not only has record-sitting QB Dan LeFevour left for the NFL, but also Antonio Brown and Bryan Anderson, the two most prolific WR’s in school history. The 1st-year HC takes over a program that won its seventh MAC title last year – the most of any school since joining the league in 1975. Thanks to LeFevour, Central Michigan won eight or more games each of the last four seasons and appeared in four straight bowl games. The Chippewas have never won eight or more games in five consecutive seasons and with a new coaching staff and signal caller, we’re betting ‘never’ triumphs once again. Let the Chips fall where they may – just be sure to stand clear.
PASS

EASTERN MICHIGAN – *7 / 7
TEAM THEME: MAJORING IN ENGLISH
They weren’t speaking fluent English at EMU last season where the Eagles suffered through an 0-12 season. “There is no doubt that our players will be bigger, stronger, tougher and coached better than they were a year ago,” contends second-year HC Ron English. We certainly hope so. English thinks his Eagles will be much improved in 2010 and we tend to agree. Due to injuries and a lack of depth, 25 newcomers – including nine true freshmen – saw significant playing time last season. Our database is also keeping a close eye on this bunch, noting: winless teams who find themselves favored in any game the following season are 31-21 ATS since 1980, including 21-9 ATS when laying five or more points. That’s a lesson in Playbook 101. Now let’s see if English could get his message across.
PASS

NORTHERN ILLINOIS – *6 / 9
TEAM THEME: KILLING ‘EM SOFTLY
The Kill era is seemingly at a crossroads. While the third-year HC has guided Northern Illinois to a bowl in each of his first two seasons, both of those games ended in losses and all Kill has to show for his effort is a 13-13 record. In fact, his Huskies have yet to beat an opponent with a winning record (0-11). While the defense declined slightly in 2009, it still ranked tops in the MAC and 30th in the nation and remains the strength of the team. Nine return from that highly-rated unit but it did suffer a blow when DE Jake Coffman, the team leader in sacks, decided to skip his senior season. “We did lose some kids… some very good players,” said Kill. “But at the same time, we’ve had some in the program that are growing up. This is the best I’ve felt since I’ve been here.” We don’t want to be a killjoy but that feeling here is that the Dekalb bunch is growing restless.
PASS

TOLEDO – 6 / 6
TEAM THEME: BOY WONDERS?
Holy Toledo, Beckman. The second-year head coach saw six true freshmen start at least two games in 2009, including three defensive backs. That’s one good reason to explain their 92nd-ranked pass defense. “We have nine seniors and only three who played all four years. So we need leaders to step up from junior, sophomore and even freshmen classes,” contends Beckman. The former Oklahoma State defensive coordinator probably didn’t sleep too well after seeing his defense stepped on for 38 PPG and over 400 yards of total offense. The young Rockets, though, did manage five wins thanks to an offense that ranked 13th in the nation. However, with just six starters back on each side of the ball and a non-conference schedule that includes three bowlers, it may take some time before Toledo sees lift-off. A fifth straight losing season is likely in the offing.
PLAY ON: vs. Bowling Green (11/17) – *KEY

WESTERN MICHIGAN – 7 / 7
TEAM THEME: SPIN MOVES
The love affair in Kalamazoo is on the ropes. A 1-3 conclusion to the 2009 season denied the Broncos a second straight bowl bid and to that they can thank an offense and a defense that each slid 25 YPG. If 6th-year HC Bill Cubit hopes to keep the yo-yo working (alternating winning and losing seasons each of the four years), he’ll need to win every home game possible with three of his six road games against bowl teams – along with a visit to Notre Dame wedged in between! (Note: WMU is just 2-7 SU and ATS in its last nine road games). To make matters worse, QB Tim Hiller has departed, having matched or broke every Broncos’ passing record along the way. Only four teams with winning records dot the schedule, so there’s a chance Cubit could play cupid in 2010.
PLAY ON: vs. Kent State (11/20)

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Predicting the Big Ten

The Big Ten has been the laughingstock of college football when it comes to games under the spotlight. The league came back with a 4-3 mark in bowl games last season with the losses coming by a combined 14 points. This is the last year of the Big Ten as we’ve known it for the last 17 years with Nebraska joining in 2011. So what can we expect from this group this season? Here are my always fearless predictions for the Big Ten in 2010.

1: Ohio State – Gee, who didn’t see this one coming? But you can’t discount what the Buckeyes have going for them this year. Ohio State is bringing back 10 starters from an offense that was averaging 413 yards and 30 points over its final six games of 2009. For the Bucks to live up to their hype this year, they’ll need Terrelle Pryor to live up to his sophomore finish. Pryor threw eight touchdowns to three picks to close out last year, highlighted by the 62.2 completion rate against Oregon in the Rose Bowl. The early test at home against the Hurricanes on Sept. 11 will give him some early Heisman clout. OSU’s schedule sets up nicely after that with sleepers against Ohio, Eastern Michigan, Illinois and Indiana before going to Madison to face the Badgers. You can’t forget about the trip to Iowa on Nov. 20 since that could determine who wins the league. Any slipups will no doubt will cost Tressel a fourth trip to the BCS Title Game.

2: Iowa – The Hawkeyes were able to pick up a solid Orange Bowl victory last season in spite of having an offense that was 10th in the Big Ten in scoring, rushing and total offense. And they could have easily found themselves in Pasadena had Ricky Stanzi not went down at the end of the regular season. Stanzi is back at full strength with a deep platoon of running backs with Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher. That doesn’t even include an Iowa defense that returns eight starters from a crew that is third nationally in pass efficiency, third in the Big Ten in scoring and total offense allowed. The Hawks look like they should be at least 9-3, but don’t be shocked if they end up with an 11-1 mark before they go bowling.

3: Wisconsin – Wisky didn’t have an impressive 2009 campaign with the quality of its wins. But we can’t discount the victory over the ‘Canes in the Champs Sports Bowl. The Badgers have 10 starters returning on offense this year, including Heisman Trophy candidate John Clay. All he did last year was rack up almost 1,400 rushing yards. Odds are good he can repeat that feat this year with all of his blockers returning. Wisconsin’s defense was iffy against the pass last season, which caused them to lose three games last year. They’ll be taking those same teams on this year (Ohio State, Iowa and Northwestern), which will still have potent aerial assaults. Look for the kids from Madison to pull up to a 9-3 mark and a decent bowl berth somewhere in the Sunshine State.

4: Penn State – The Nittany Lions have been one of the most consistent programs in the league over the last two seasons with matching 11-2 marks. On the outside, Penn State should put up comparable numbers with eight starters returning on defense and seven on offense. But they struggle when bringing a new quarterback into the mix. That is the case this season as they don’t know if Kevin Newsome or Matt McGloin. Hell, they just might “Wildcat” the hell out of the offense and give Evan Royster the ball on every snap. Another issue for JoePa’s team is they have road tests at Alabama, Iowa and Ohio State. All appear to be certain defeats and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them stumble to a 7-5 mark in Paterno’s 45th year in State College.

5: Northwestern – Normally you’d expect the Wildcats to be in a heavy rebuilding stage after going to a New Year’s Day bowl game. But Northwestern has a new quarterback in Dan Persa that the coaching staff is in love with to replace Mike Kafka. Persa will have a veteran o-line in front of him with three returning starters and two sophomores that have logged quality playing time. Plus, the schedule opens up for the ‘Cats to possibly reel off six or more wins to start off the season. They do have rough road tests against the Nittany Lions and Badgers, which are not easy places to play. Yet Northwestern has the goods to go 7-5 and maybe even all the way up to a 10-2 mark if they get a few lucky breaks.

6: Michigan State – Last year finished about as bad as could be reasonably imagined for the Spartans. Now they can get back to the business of winning, instead of watching the police blotter. Kirk Cousins has control of the QB job and has a potential playmaker target in his backup Keith Nichol. The offensive line is a problem with just two starters returning to the trenches. Pass defense will no doubt be an issue still for the Spartans this year with a rebuilt secondary that ranked 112th nationally in 2009. Their schedule isn’t terribly daunting. However, Michigan State’s last three road tests against the Wildcats, Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions push them into 7-5 territory.

7: Michigan – This might as well be Rich Rodriguez’s make-or-break year with the Wolverines after two horrid seasons. The QB situation appears to have Tate Forcier firmly planted as the top signal caller, but Denard Robinson will get a lot of snaps as well. They’ll need both of them to flourish with a running back situation that only consists of sophomore Mike Cox. A 6-6 record appears to be on the horizon with road tests against Notre Dame, Penn State and Ohio State. If RichRod can hit .500 this season, that will save his job for at least one more year.

8: Purdue – Things didn’t start off great for Danny Hope in his first year running the Boilermakers. There is a silver lining in the dark cloud of a 5-7 campaign after upsetting Ohio State in West Lafayette. This year he’ll be going into the season with a brand new starting QB in Robert Marve. The former Hurricane disappointed many during his time in South Florida. But he has shown some promise during spring practice and will no doubt enjoy the lack of pressure. What hurts Purdue most this year is losing Ralph Bolden after an All-Big Ten second-team honor in 2009. Defense is another problem as the Boilers were giving up 29.1 PPG last season. And that won’t improve this year with a brand new set of safeties and quarterbacks. Look for another 5-7 campaign for the Black and Gold.

9: Minnesota – Things have looked up for the Golden Gophers the last two seasons under Tim Brewster with back-to-back Insight.com Bowl berths. This year will find Minnesota crashing back down to Earth. The Gophers are returning just two starters to their defense, while the offense brings back nine. One of the missing options for Minny on the attack is wideout Eric Decker, who accounted for almost one-third of the receiving yards. And that doesn’t take into account that Adam Weber threw more interceptions (15) than touchdowns (13) in ’09. Pouring more salt into the wound is the fact that the Golden Gophers are hit by practically every big team available as they face Southern California, Wisky, Penn State, Ohio State and Iowa. They should consider themselves lucky if they finish 4-8.

10: Indiana – There were flashes of what could be a great team in Bloomington last season. The Hoosiers held big leads over Michigan, Northwestern and Wisconsin. All three games ended in aching defeats by three points. Setbacks like that come back on bad coaching decisions, which means it’s Bill Lynch’s fault. Indiana does have eight starters back on the assault, including Ben Chappell, who could be a breakout star. But a shoddy defense and bad moves by Lynch mean this team will finish 4-8 or worse.

11: Illinois – There was a time that Ron Zook actually had fielded a decent team in Champaign. I only know this because you see occasional video of the Fighting Illini getting ripped by USC on ESPN and some bums around town are wearing the “Rose Bowl Champ” shirts that they never got to don in Pasadena. Things won’t be great this year with Juice Williams thankfully running out of eligibility. That means redshirt freshman Nathan Scheelhaase will be running a brand new offense under former Arkansas O.C. Paul Petrino. The Illini’s defense could be a bright spot with six of their top seven tacklers back this season. But don’t be shocked if they become a fascinating train wreck. The conference schedule is front loaded with the Bucks and Nittany Lions, which doesn’t take in battles with Northwestern and Fresno State. Decent showings there would be nice, but don’t expect better than a 3-9 effort.

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Neuheisel under the gun

UCLA Bruins Preview
There's a little discussed but much-valued skill that only a handful of head coaches have ever been able to master. It's called reducing expectations, and nowhere has the bar been lowered more deftly than at UCLA, where 3rd-year HC Rick Neuheisel has been able to convince a portion of Bruin football backers that he has the program on the right track despite winning only 6 of 18 Pac-10 contests (two of those victories vs. woeful Washington State) over the past two years. Some of the more wide-eyed UCLA honks even saw reason to celebrate last December's EagleBank Bowl win over a low-profile Temple squad that was minus its main offensive threat (RB Bernard Pierce) for much of the game.

But discriminating Bruin backers have yet to see anything different from predecessor Karl Dorrell's failed regime, and they are running out of patience with Neuheisel's teams that have lacked dynamism (and playmakers) on offense and have done little to recall past glories of UCLA football (including some of Terry Donahue's Rose Bowl years in the '80s when Neuheisel played QB) that a new generation of local fans, weaned on the recent successes across town at USC, might never know existed.

Still, Neuheisel earned high marks from even his staunchest critics when managing to hold on to sage o.c. Norm Chow during the offseason when it looked for a short while as if Chow might be headed across town to Lane Kiffin's new staff at USC. Chow, if you recall, was an instrumental part of Pete Carroll's initial regime that rebuilt Troy into a national power early in the last decade. And the thought of Chow potentially resurrecting that SC offensive monster had Bruin fans rightly shaking in their boots for a few days last January. It all proved to be nothing more than a rumor (Chow would never be likely to work under the backstabbing Kiffin, who succeeded Norm as Trojan o.c. and who reportedly greased Chow's skid out of SC) but did result in an enhanced contract for the veteran o.c., who admittedly has had problems finding the right combo in Westwood the past couple of seasons.

Public relations acumen or not, the time has come for Neuheisel (just 11-14 SU since '08) to deliver something on the field, and to that end all eyes will be on Chow's "O" emerging from its recent doldrums. Chow, no dummy, has decided to change his recipe this fall, with the installation of a Nevada-style "Pistol" (which the Bruins call a "Revolver") the main development of an eventful spring. Ostensibly, it's hoped that the "Revolver" can open more lanes for a UCLA ground game that has been mostly AWOL, ranking 117th and 97th, respectively, the past two seasons. The mobility of RS soph QB Kevin Prince is key to the new look, which will also incorporate some of the sleight-of-hand Oregon has used with its QBs the past few years. But unless Chow can uncover something of an infantry diversion with Prince and holdover RBs Johnathan Franklin (a glider with fumble issues) and Derrick Coleman (a smasher), or perhaps touted frosh Malcolm Jones and Jordan James, the Revolver could be shooting blanks in the fall. Meanwhile, a couple of transfers, 6-7 TE Joseph Fauria (via Notre Dame, and Prince's HS teammate) and jr. WR Josh Smith (via Colorado; should be ready for fall after spring knee woes), and maybe soph speedball Randall Carroll, could emerge as viable receiving targets to complement lanky jr. WRs Nelson Rosario and Taylor Embree, who combined for 87 catches LY. It would also help if the OL, which returns 4 starters but was subject to position juggling in spring, develops more continuity. At least Groza Award-winning PK Kai Forbath (28 of 31 FGs LY) is still around to salvage something if the "O" continues to stall in the red zone.

With six starters departed from LY's snippy stop unit, d.c. Chuck Bullough will be looking for a few new impact performers, especially along a DL that was strafed by graduation (NFL draftee DT Brian Price among the departed). But plenty of playmakers remain on the platoon, including LB Akeem Ayers & S Rahim Moore (the nation's leading interceptor with 10 picks LY), and jr. DE Datone Jones hinted at a breakout campaign in spring.

Summary...The natives are getting restless in Westwood, and three years into his regime, it's time for Neuheisel to begin converting supposed recruiting successes into more wins. The defense should again be good enough to keep the Bruins within shouting distance of anyone, but don't expect a breakthrough season unless o.c. Chow finds some live ammunition for his new "Revolver" looks. With no soft touches (Kansas State, Houston and Texas) in the non-conference slate, UCLA will be hard-pressed to get beyond minor bowl status once more.

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College Road Warriors

Competitive balance is one of the bigger complaints you’ll hear from fanboys out there when it comes to sports.

Baseball has gotten to the point where salaries are so big that third-world countries wouldn’t know how to mismanage the cash. Football has rookies making more than guys that have instrumental in winning multiple Super Bowls. And hockey has players trying to convince everyone that they’ll honor the final three seasons of a 17-year contract for pennies on the dollar. College football isn’t immune to this struggle that would make Lenin blush. Only college teams are in a race to have the best facilities, strongest fan bases and boosters that can hide perks the best. The majority of clubs that can’t necessarily do that stuff above look to make money by hitting the road…a lot.

If you look at the non-BCS conferences that make up the Football Bowl Subdivision, you’ll see that there are some true road warriors out there. Teams in the Sun Belt and Mid-American Conferences can’t wait to leave campus for a hefty paycheck as they are averaging 6.7 and 6.3 road games per program in 2010. And that doesn’t take into account neutral site games that they’re playing.

It isn’t just teams from the lower tier of college football’s top division that are taking to the road a lot. Only 55 of the 119 teams in the FBS are playing half of their games this season away from home. Who is the team picking up the most frequent flyer miles in 2010? Howard Schnellenberger’s FAU Owls have seven true road tests on the slate and another “neutral” against Michigan State that is being played at Ford Field in Detroit. Auburn, Duke and Ohio State don’t know very much about hard times away from home as they all have just four travel dates set for the year.

As if having to live out of a suitcase for a while isn’t bad enough for just one week, some of these teams are doing it for three straight games. There are 23 programs that have a stretch of three straight road tests. Out of those 23 clubs playing three in a row on the road, 12 of them are doing so without the benefit of a bye week to break up the time. That’s down from the 18 teams that had three road matches in a row, with 14 of them without a bye in 2009.

If last season’s collection of road warriors is any indication, these teams that aren’t going to be setting the world on fire. The 18 teams last season went a collective 17-37 straight up and 26-28 against the spread in their respective three-game stretches.

I’d love to give you a solid trend out of all of those games from 2009 on covering the spread in a specific game, but it just isn’t there. Totals, however, are another story entirely. In the first two matches of this road trip last year saw the ‘over’ set up a 21-15 mark. But that jumps to the other side when looking at the final game of the set, evidenced by a 13-4-1 ‘under’ record.

Most of us would expect there to be better information when we filter down to just the teams last year that had no bye week between fixtures. The first game of that trip didn’t go as planned for many of those teams by going 2-12 SU, but did post a 6-8 ATS mark. The sandwich test was moderately better at 5-9 SU with those teams still going 6-8 ATS. You’d believe that these teams would be a great group to fade in the final game of this road trip, but that wasn’t the case last year. Programs playing their third consecutive road game without a by in ’09 went 5-9 SU and 7-7 ATS. Your best option for this spot in 2010 would be taking the ‘under’ for these teams as it collected as terrific 12-2 mark in the final game of those road trips without an open date.

We’ve got five teams that have three-game road trips without a bye week this year that also did them same in 2009. So tip your cap to the good people of Central Michigan, Houston, Louisiana, Ohio and Western Michigan when you see them.

The Bobcats and the Chippewas were your better choices in those contests last season as they went a combined 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS. And there is no reason to not believe they can’t put up similar numbers again this year considering they were 10-5 SU and ATS away from home in ’09.

There are a few teams that you could look to fade in this spot this year, but the best option is Northern Illinois. Jerry Kill’s Huskies were flat out painful to watch on the road last season with 2-5 SU and ATS. Plus, NIU has not beaten any team with a winning record since Killy has been in DeKalb. Given that they have Illinois, Minnesota and Akron to start the year, the possibility of that slump continuing is strong.

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Predicting the Big Ten

The Big Ten has been the laughingstock of college football when it comes to games under the spotlight. The league came back with a 4-3 mark in bowl games last season with the losses coming by a combined 14 points. This is the last year of the Big Ten as we’ve known it for the last 17 years with Nebraska joining in 2011. So what can we expect from this group this season? Here are my always fearless predictions for the Big Ten in 2010.

1: Ohio State – Gee, who didn’t see this one coming? But you can’t discount what the Buckeyes have going for them this year. Ohio State is bringing back 10 starters from an offense that was averaging 413 yards and 30 points over its final six games of 2009. For the Bucks to live up to their hype this year, they’ll need Terrelle Pryor to live up to his sophomore finish. Pryor threw eight touchdowns to three picks to close out last year, highlighted by the 62.2 completion rate against Oregon in the Rose Bowl. The early test at home against the Hurricanes on Sept. 11 will give him some early Heisman clout. OSU’s schedule sets up nicely after that with sleepers against Ohio, Eastern Michigan, Illinois and Indiana before going to Madison to face the Badgers. You can’t forget about the trip to Iowa on Nov. 20 since that could determine who wins the league. Any slipups will no doubt will cost Tressel a fourth trip to the BCS Title Game.

2: Iowa – The Hawkeyes were able to pick up a solid Orange Bowl victory last season in spite of having an offense that was 10th in the Big Ten in scoring, rushing and total offense. And they could have easily found themselves in Pasadena had Ricky Stanzi not went down at the end of the regular season. Stanzi is back at full strength with a deep platoon of running backs with Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher. That doesn’t even include an Iowa defense that returns eight starters from a crew that is third nationally in pass efficiency, third in the Big Ten in scoring and total offense allowed. The Hawks look like they should be at least 9-3, but don’t be shocked if they end up with an 11-1 mark before they go bowling.

3: Wisconsin – Wisky didn’t have an impressive 2009 campaign with the quality of its wins. But we can’t discount the victory over the ‘Canes in the Champs Sports Bowl. The Badgers have 10 starters returning on offense this year, including Heisman Trophy candidate John Clay. All he did last year was rack up almost 1,400 rushing yards. Odds are good he can repeat that feat this year with all of his blockers returning. Wisconsin’s defense was iffy against the pass last season, which caused them to lose three games last year. They’ll be taking those same teams on this year (Ohio State, Iowa and Northwestern), which will still have potent aerial assaults. Look for the kids from Madison to pull up to a 9-3 mark and a decent bowl berth somewhere in the Sunshine State.

4: Penn State – The Nittany Lions have been one of the most consistent programs in the league over the last two seasons with matching 11-2 marks. On the outside, Penn State should put up comparable numbers with eight starters returning on defense and seven on offense. But they struggle when bringing a new quarterback into the mix. That is the case this season as they don’t know if Kevin Newsome or Matt McGloin. Hell, they just might “Wildcat” the hell out of the offense and give Evan Royster the ball on every snap. Another issue for JoePa’s team is they have road tests at Alabama, Iowa and Ohio State. All appear to be certain defeats and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them stumble to a 7-5 mark in Paterno’s 45th year in State College.

5: Northwestern – Normally you’d expect the Wildcats to be in a heavy rebuilding stage after going to a New Year’s Day bowl game. But Northwestern has a new quarterback in Dan Persa that the coaching staff is in love with to replace Mike Kafka. Persa will have a veteran o-line in front of him with three returning starters and two sophomores that have logged quality playing time. Plus, the schedule opens up for the ‘Cats to possibly reel off six or more wins to start off the season. They do have rough road tests against the Nittany Lions and Badgers, which are not easy places to play. Yet Northwestern has the goods to go 7-5 and maybe even all the way up to a 10-2 mark if they get a few lucky breaks.

6: Michigan State – Last year finished about as bad as could be reasonably imagined for the Spartans. Now they can get back to the business of winning, instead of watching the police blotter. Kirk Cousins has control of the QB job and has a potential playmaker target in his backup Keith Nichol. The offensive line is a problem with just two starters returning to the trenches. Pass defense will no doubt be an issue still for the Spartans this year with a rebuilt secondary that ranked 112th nationally in 2009. Their schedule isn’t terribly daunting. However, Michigan State’s last three road tests against the Wildcats, Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions push them into 7-5 territory.

7: Michigan – This might as well be Rich Rodriguez’s make-or-break year with the Wolverines after two horrid seasons. The QB situation appears to have Tate Forcier firmly planted as the top signal caller, but Denard Robinson will get a lot of snaps as well. They’ll need both of them to flourish with a running back situation that only consists of sophomore Mike Cox. A 6-6 record appears to be on the horizon with road tests against Notre Dame, Penn State and Ohio State. If RichRod can hit .500 this season, that will save his job for at least one more year.

8: Purdue – Things didn’t start off great for Danny Hope in his first year running the Boilermakers. There is a silver lining in the dark cloud of a 5-7 campaign after upsetting Ohio State in West Lafayette. This year he’ll be going into the season with a brand new starting QB in Robert Marve. The former Hurricane disappointed many during his time in South Florida. But he has shown some promise during spring practice and will no doubt enjoy the lack of pressure. What hurts Purdue most this year is losing Ralph Bolden after an All-Big Ten second-team honor in 2009. Defense is another problem as the Boilers were giving up 29.1 PPG last season. And that won’t improve this year with a brand new set of safeties and quarterbacks. Look for another 5-7 campaign for the Black and Gold.

9: Minnesota – Things have looked up for the Golden Gophers the last two seasons under Tim Brewster with back-to-back Insight.com Bowl berths. This year will find Minnesota crashing back down to Earth. The Gophers are returning just two starters to their defense, while the offense brings back nine. One of the missing options for Minny on the attack is wideout Eric Decker, who accounted for almost one-third of the receiving yards. And that doesn’t take into account that Adam Weber threw more interceptions (15) than touchdowns (13) in ’09. Pouring more salt into the wound is the fact that the Golden Gophers are hit by practically every big team available as they face Southern California, Wisky, Penn State, Ohio State and Iowa. They should consider themselves lucky if they finish 4-8.

10: Indiana – There were flashes of what could be a great team in Bloomington last season. The Hoosiers held big leads over Michigan, Northwestern and Wisconsin. All three games ended in aching defeats by three points. Setbacks like that come back on bad coaching decisions, which means it’s Bill Lynch’s fault. Indiana does have eight starters back on the assault, including Ben Chappell, who could be a breakout star. But a shoddy defense and bad moves by Lynch mean this team will finish 4-8 or worse.

11: Illinois – There was a time that Ron Zook actually had fielded a decent team in Champaign. I only know this because you see occasional video of the Fighting Illini getting ripped by USC on ESPN and some bums around town are wearing the “Rose Bowl Champ” shirts that they never got to don in Pasadena. Things won’t be great this year with Juice Williams thankfully running out of eligibility. That means redshirt freshman Nathan Scheelhaase will be running a brand new offense under former Arkansas O.C. Paul Petrino. The Illini’s defense could be a bright spot with six of their top seven tacklers back this season. But don’t be shocked if they become a fascinating train wreck. The conference schedule is front loaded with the Bucks and Nittany Lions, which doesn’t take in battles with Northwestern and Fresno State. Decent showings there would be nice, but don’t expect better than a 3-9 effort.

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Big East Predictions

The Big East used to be one of the better brands of college football amongst the BCS conferences. Now they could be easily considered the Fredo of the “Big 6” leagues in the Football Bowl Subdivision. Yet after the exodus by the Hokies and ‘Canes to the ACC and the rumored poaching by the Big Ten, this league still holds its head up high. This season could prove to be the most wide open race we’ve seen in a while for the automatic BCS bowl berth. Here are my predictions for the Big East.

1: Connecticut – The Huskies had one of the toughest finishes to the year in 2009 after Jasper Howard’s murder, but still wound up going 8-5. Showing a true test of Randy Edsall and his team’s mettle is that the three losses immediately following the tragedy were by a combined 10 points. Now Connecticut returns eight starters on both sides of the ball this season. The schedule for the Huskies sets up great. Their non-conference schedule is all very winnable for this club. Plus, the tough games against Cincy, Pitt and West Virginia are all in Storrs. This should be UConn’s first 10-win season at this level.

2: West Virginia – Bill Stewart has had respectable 9-4 marks in his first two full campaigns as head coach. Yet that still is lesser ground than where Rich Rodriguez had this team on before bolting for Ann Arbor. But things look like they are set to change in Morgantown this autumn. The Mountaineers have eight starters coming back on offense and nine on defense, including the most veteran offensive line in the Big East. What will be a tough sell is Florida prep star Geno Smith becoming the third starting QB in as many years for West Virginia. A trip to LSU is a challenge, but there is no doubt this team should finish with at least a 10-2 record.

3: Cincinnati – Three years back, Cincinnati brought Brian Kelly in Central Michigan to take over its program. And after all the success they had with him, they figured they can go back to the well and bring Butch Jones in from the Chippewas to run the Bearcats. Some folks might believe that the cupboard is bare in Cincy, but that’s small thinking. Zach Collaros will make people forget about Tony Pike under center. He pretty much already did that in ’09 after tossing for 1,434 yards and 10 touchdowns to just two picks. And Collaros will fit in quite well with Jones’ balanced spread attack that helped Dan LeFevour put his stamp on the MAC record book. A date with the Sooners at Paul Brown Stadium is daunting, but road tests against the Mountaineers and Huskies make you think that Cincinnati will find itself with a disappointing (by its recent standards) 9-3 mark.

4: Pittsburgh – The Panthers are coming off of their first 10-win season in Dave Wannstedt’s tenure over his alma mater. Yet you get the feeling that Pitt left a perfect season slip away. They’re returning just 11 starters from last year’s team. The showcase piece for Pittsburgh is Dion Lewis, who was last year’s most decorated freshman running back (1,799 yards, 17 TD’s). But Lewis will need some effective work out of new starting QB Tino Sunseri in 2010. The Panthers welcome back Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard on the defensive trenches after sacking 13 total signal callers a year ago. The non-conference schedule has the Utes and ‘Canes, which are no pushovers for a rebuilt team. I look for Sunseri to struggle in his first year as he guides Pitt to a ho-hum 7-5 season.

5: South Florida – The Bulls are entering unfamiliar territory this season as Skip Holtz comes to Tampa via ECU after Jim Leavitt was thrown out on his rump of allegations of player abuse. Holtz will have a strong start to the year with B.J. Daniels coming back to run the show behind the entire offensive line and Andre Hall to help with the running duties. The season opens with four of the Bulls first five games at Raymond James Stadium (Face Gators on Sept. 11 in Gainesville) to ensure a fast start. The problem for USF is they go to Morgantown, Cincy and Miami after that welcoming start to the year. It shouldn’t be a shocker since the Bulls are 8-13 straight up in the final seven games of their last three seasons. Nobody should be surprised if this team finishes no worse than 6-6.

6: Rutgers – Greg Schiano has put together quite the program at what used to be the biggest laughingstock in college football. The Scarlet Knights leave the keys to the offense in Tom Savage’s hands. Not a bad idea considering Savage completed 52 percent of his passes and tossed 14 scores to seven interceptions as a true freshman. Mohamed Sanu has proved he is a quality wide receiver that was successful as the QB in “Wildcat” formations. Too bad Rutgers will be replacing its top four tacklers from last year on defense. The Knights appear to be heading for a 6-6 campaign.

7: Syracuse – You can say the Orange are still failures, but there is no doubt they played harder for Doug Marrone than they ever did for previous head coach Greg Robinson. Syracuse has 10 starters back on a defense that went from giving up 5.1 yards per carry to 3.9. The only problem is the Orange’s offense is essentially brand new at the skill positions with just five starters coming back. Marrone has this program going in the right direction, but a 4-8 mark would be a definite positive.

8: Louisville – The Cardinals made the smartest move they could by bringing Charlie Strong and his recruiting acumen in from Florida to replace Steve Kragthorpe to right the ship. And Strong pulled off a great play by getting deposed UNLV head coach Mike Sanford to run the offense. Too bad the wide receiving corp is a bit on the thin side and Justin Burke and Adam Froman (not related to the “Sausage King of Chicago”). While Strong will get this team back on track, a 2-10 mark would be a logical starting point for Louisville.

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Season Win Totals

This past week, a number of betting shops both offshore and in Las Vegas released season win totals for the 2010 college football season. With that in mind, this space is salivating at the prospects of placing wagers.

When looking at these sort of numbers, I want to find a 1 ½-game difference between my prediction for a team and the book’s number. For instance, if a school’s win total is 8 ½ and I have that team finishing 7-5, then I’m bullish on the ‘under.’ On the flip side, if the number is 8 ½ and I have that squad going 10-2, then I’m all about the ‘over.’

I found only three BCS schools that fit that criteria last season. I backed Alabama and Ga. Tech to go ‘over’ and Notre Dame to stay ‘under.’ All cashed easily and we’re looking for the same results this time around.

And why not go with the Yellow Jackets again? Paul Johnson’s squad has been saddled with eight ‘over’ (minus-120) as its number at Sportsbook.com. Ga. Tech lost three players to the NFL in RB Jonathan Dwyer, WR Demaryius Thomas and DE Derrick Morgan, but most of the nucleus is back on The Flats.

Most importantly, senior QB Josh Nesbitt returns for his third year in Johnson’s lethal flexbone attack. Nesbitt rushed for 18 touchdowns in 2009 and improved his touchdown-interception ratio to 10/5. Although Dwyer’s 1,395 yards and 14 rushing TDs are gone, Louisville transfer Anthony Allen is poised to carry a heavier load.

In his first year with the Yellow Jackets, Allen averaged 9.7 yards per carry and got into the end zone seven times (six rushing, one receiving). H-back Roddy White also returns after averaging 6.5 YPC in ’09.

On defense, 14 of Tech’s 17 leading tacklers from last season are back. Senior LB Brad Jefferson highlights this unit after garnering third-team All-ACC honors.

The Jackets have four tough road games that have the oddsmakers thinking 8-4. Those include trips to Chapel Hill, Clemson, Blacksburg and Athens. However, all of those games are winnable and I have G-Tech at 9-2 going into the game at Georgia. Just like in ’08, I have the Jackets winning between the hedges again (and perhaps handing Mark Richt his pink slip in the process).

My favorite ‘under’ on the board is for Michigan, which is listed at seven ‘under’ (minus-130) at Sportsbook.com. In recent years, we’ve seen the likes of Utah and Appalachian St. go into the Big House and win outright in Week 1, and it says here that Randy Edsall’s UConn bunch is poised to pull the same trick. The Huskies, who destroyed South Carolina at the PapaJohn’s.com Bowl, return eight starters on each side of the ball.

Like the Irish last season, the Wolverines have a head coach that’s on a boiling hot seat. Nothing has gone right for Rich Rodriguez since bolting Morgantown for Ann Arbor. There was drama galore from his previous job at West Va. that followed him to Michigan. Then he created his own internal soap opera by running off players and bringing the NCAA to town for practicing for too many hours.

Oh yeah, there’s also been this little issue with losses galore. Michigan has limped to an abysmal 8-16 record on R-Rod’s watch, including home L’s to Toledo, Illinois (by 25), Michigan St. (by 14), Northwestern, Penn St. (by 25), Purdue and Ohio St.

This space thinks Michigan will be 5-6 before its trip to The ‘Shoe for the regular-season finale against arch-rival Ohio St. R-Rod might get his pink slip before then just to ensure that he can’t save his job with an upset win over the Buckeyes. Whatever the case, this will be his last year in Ann Arbor and bettors will cash ‘under’ tickets.

Now let’s talk about South Carolina, which has a win total of seven ‘under’ (minus-120) at Sportsbook.com. With Florida, Georgia and Tennessee turning to new QBs in 2010, the SEC East suddenly looks like a wide-open division. The Gamecocks have fourth-year junior Stephen Garcia under center.

Garcia had an up-and-down campaign in his first full year as the starter. On the bright side, he had a 17/10 TD-INT ratio and stayed healthy for the entire season. However, he was entirely too mistake prone in losses to Tennessee and UConn. Steve Spurrier is looking for more consistency and has been clear during the offseason that Garcia still has a long way to go.

In fairness to Garcia, he hasn’t had quality protection from his offensive line or a productive rushing attack to give the offense balance. Maybe that changes this season with nine offensive starters back in the mix and the addition of Marcus Lattimore, a true freshman who many recruitniks named as the nation’s top prep RB last year.

There’s also sophomore WRs Alshon Jeffery and Tori Gurley, who combined for 77 receptions and more than 1,200 receiving yards as freshmen. Both are big targets who appear on the verge of big seasons. South Carolina also has one of the SEC's best TEs in Weslye Saunders, but he’s under investigation (along with UNC’s Marvin Austin and Alabama’s Marcell Dareus) for potential contact with an agent that could lead to a suspension or ineligibility.

During Spurrier’s tenure, the defense has consistently been among the SEC’s best. That won’t change this year with seven starters returning. Also, LB Rodney Paulk is back after tearing his ACL in a Week 1 victory at N.C. St. in 2009. The secondary is one of the nation’s best thanks to senior Chris Culliver, who is moving back to CB from safety, and sophomore corner Stephon Gilmore, who is a potential All-American with a bright future in the NFL.

I have South Carolina at 8-3 going into the regular-season finale at Clemson. The ‘Cocks will win crucial home games against Georgia and Arkansas, and they'll also sweep back-to-back road games at Kentucky and at Vandy.

My fourth play this year is Iowa to go ‘over’ 8 ½, but I’m not as high on this wager as my three others. That’s because Sportsbook.com is forcing bettors to lay minus-160 for ‘over’ bets (risk $160 to win $100). Although I have the Hawkeyes finishing 10-2, I don’t recommend this bet unless you just go real small (amount-wise) or find a better rate. In fact, I’d rather have the number at nine than 8 ½ if it gets us a more reasonable price.

Kirk Ferentz’s program is back after enduring a three-year stretch of mediocrity from 2005-2007. The Hawks went 11-2 last year and knocked off Ga. Tech by a 24-14 count at the Orange Bowl. They bring back six starters on offense and eight on defense.

The schedule sets up nicely for Iowa, which will play its three toughest Big Ten games (vs. PSU, vs. Wisconsin and vs. Ohio St.) at home. The non-conference slate also bodes well for an ‘over’ wager with three lay-ups at home (vs. Eastern Illinois, Iowa St. and Ball St.) and a trip to Arizona to face the Wildcats.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--With Alabama facing six opponents (yes, six!) that’ll be coming off open dates and Dareus’s status in question (for now), I think gamblers should proceed with heavy caution before backing the Tide to go ‘over’ 10 wins even though it does net a plus-120 return at Sportsbook.com (risk $100 to win $120 on 'over' bets).

--Bettors should keep in mind that wagers on season win totals are for regular-season games only. Therefore, a win in a conference championship game will not factor into the equation. Remember, USC plays 13 regular-season games thanks to an NCAA rule that gives schools an extra game if it plays at Hawaii. The Trojans’ number is 9 ½ ‘over’ (minus-135) at Sportsbook.com.

--It’s not a done deal yet, but it’s looking like Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli is going to land at Ole Miss and be its starter this year. Masoli, a first-team All Pac-10 choice after leading the Ducks to the Rose Bowl last season, was suspended for the 2010 campaign by Chip Kelly after being arrested in the spring. However, since Masoli has completed his undergrad work at Oregon, he can be eligible this year if he enrolls in a grad-school program that’s not offered in Eugene. That’s apparently the case in Oxford and with Jevan Snead going pro early, Houston Nutt needs a big-time QB bad. Masoli’s checkered past will draw scrutiny but the reality is that his presence will change everything for the Rebels, who should be favorites in their first five games before getting an open date ahead of a trip to Tuscaloosa.

[grandmama]

I like South Carolina over 7 this year, as well as over 8 for LSU. BTW, I think 5 or 6 teams that played Bama last year had open dates before the faced the Tide, so I don't put too much stock in that, but it is a little scary. Everyone is pissed about it down here, and Bama actually moved the Georgia State game to a Thur night game, so they'll have a couple extra days to prepare for the Auburn game, which is the following friday.

[StarDust Bum]

Top 25 Update

1-BOISE STATE...We'll know by the end of the opening week if we've stuck our necks out too far on this one. But if Boise can survive a tough test vs. Virginia Tech at the Redskins' FedEx Field on Labor Day night, there's no reason the Broncos can't be on their way to their fifth unbeaten regular season since 2004. After all, 20 of 22 starters are back from last year's unblemished team that dominated Pac-10 champ Oregon and beat TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. And, on a short list of serious Heisman contenders, junior QB Kellen Moore deserves mention after his spectacular 39-TDP, 3-pick performance a year ago. Staying ahead of any "Big Six" conference unbeatens through the duration of the regular season is doubtful, but if there aren't at least two of those unblemished sorts this season, the Boise brand probably now has enough poll cachet to stay ahead of any 1-loss entries in the title game queue.

2-ALABAMA...It's not easy to win back-to-back BCS crowns (ask Florida), but the Tide will give it a shot. After all, they only return a Heisman-winning RB (Mark Ingram), a back some think is better than Ingram (Trent Richardson), and a title-winning QB (Greg McElroy). Sure, Nick Saban loses nine starters from last year's defense, but they're in pass-the-baton mode in Tuscaloosa these days, and rest assured there will be no shortage of playmakers on the stop unit (DT Marcell Dareus and LB Dont'a Hightower likely to be mentioned a lot by Mel Kiper Jr. if they come out early for next April's NFL draft). Although if Sandra Bullock couldn't get Saban to crack a smile in The Blind Side, we're not sure he ever will.

3-OHIO STATE...Okay, now the Buckeyes have that recent BCS monkey off of their backs after their Rose Bowl win over Oregon. To take the next step and go the whole way will require QB Terrelle Pryor to smooth out some of the remaining rough patches in his game and minimize the chance of the Buckeyes getting ambushed when they least expect it (such as at Purdue last year). The schedule is no picnic, with the Miami Hurricanes paying a non-conference visit to the Big Horseshoe, while Big Ten showdowns vs. Wisconsin and Iowa are both on the road. But sixteen starters return, the TB position goes five deep, and of many Buckeyes who could have declared early for the NFL draft, only DE Thad Gibson decided to make the jump.

4-NEBRASKA...Oh, for Jerry Tagge or David Humm or Vince Ferragamo. Even Turner Gill (though he's unlikely to offer much help in his new job as Kansas HC). What Bo Pelini would do for a reincarnation of one of Nebraska's top QBs from the past, which is all that might stand between the Huskers and a legit title run. Big XII sources believe a "D" that led the nation in fewest points allowed in '09 and when last seen was throwing Arizona around like a bunch of rag dolls in the Holiday Bowl could be even better this year despite the departure of DT Ndamukong Suh. If one QB from among holdovers Zac Lee (off arm surgery) and Cody Green (erratic as a frosh in '09) or perhaps mobile RS frosh (and spring sensation) Taylor Martinez can emerge, look out.

5-TCU...If the Frogs were only about 8 inches (the distance Texas PK Hunter Lawrence's last-second FG went inside the upright in the Big XII championship tilt) from a berth in last season's BCS title game, there's no reason they can't get close again, not with almost everyone back from last year's school record-setting attack featuring sr. QB Andy Dalton. Sure, elite defenders Jerry Hughes and Daryl Washington will instead be working on Sundays this fall, but shrewd d.c. Dick Bumpas has been fielding voracious stop units for years. If TCU can deal with Oregon State in the opener at Jerry Jones' stadium, it might be full steam ahead until a likely Mountain West showdown at Utah in November. What will it take to lure HC Gary Patterson from Fort Worth, anyway?

6-IOWA...Who knows, were it not for that ankle injury suffered by QB Ricky Stanzi in November against Northwestern, maybe the Hawkeyes would have made it into last January's title game (no consolation to Georgia Tech, which was manhandled by Norm Parker's Iowa defense in the Orange Bowl). Now, with a healthy Stanzi, most of the pieces seem to be in place for another run at least into Rose Bowl contention, with a deep combo of TBs featuring Adam Robinson, Brandon Wegher, and now-healthy Jewel Hampton, perhaps the best DL in the Big Ten, and maybe the country's best ball-hawking safety in Tyler Sash; all Kirk Ferentz is really worried about is plugging a few gaps along his OL. The schedule is BCS-friendly, with a manageable non-conference slate and Big Ten showdowns vs. Wisconsin and Ohio State both at Iowa City.

7-VIRGINIA TECH...That Labor Day opener at FedEx Field isn't big only to Boise State's BCS hopes; it could catapult VPI in that direction as well. A win over the Broncos puts the Hokies on course for eventual bang-bang-bang November showdowns vs. Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Miami that could put Frank Beamer in position for his first BCS title game in 11 years. The best news for Beamer and Tech fans in the offseason was the decision of respected d.c. Bud Foster to stay put after Georgia nearly lured him away, likely ensuring another nasty VT stop unit. The offense, with sr. QB Tyrod Taylor having matured into an effective leader and now-healthy RB Darren Evans joining '09's frosh revelation Ryan Williams in the backfield, could be as dynamic as the old Michael Vick days in Blacksburg.

8-FLORIDA...So much for Urban Meyer's leave of absence, which quickly turned into one of the biggest non-stories of the year. Meyer is back, but we're not quite sure about his Gators, who enter a season for the first time since Meyer's 2005 debut year in Gainesville without Tim Tebow on the roster. Still, as long as successor John Brantley doesn't become distracted or overwhelmed (or both), Florida should be fine, with the passing game potentially upgraded if soph WR Frankie Hammond Jr. is as good as he looked in spring. Meyer lost d.c. Charlie Strong to Louisville, as well as nine of LY's Gators who were taken in the NFL Draft, but when was the last time the talent reservoir wasn't full in Gainesville?

9-TEXAS...If there were any blessing to QB Colt McCoy getting KO'd in the BCS title game vs. Bama, it was that successor Garrett Gilbert got a test run piloting the Longhorn attack in the most pressure-packed of situations. And if Gilbert can improve over the course of this season as much as he did from one half to the next against the Crimson Tide, Mack Brown's bunch should at least be able to stay in control of the Big XII South. Making a serious run at a return to the BCS title game, however, will require the infantry to pick up the pace and for several inexperienced (though well-regarded) defenders to adapt quickly to d.c. Will Muschamp's aggressive schemes.

10-OREGON...The Ducks would have been a slam-bang, Top-Five pick until rock star QB Jeremiah Masoli decided to steal a computer and a guitar (does he think he's Elvis?) from a campus dorm this past winter. Masoli's subsequent season-long suspension, and brushes with the law involving other Ducks, thus made for a very uncomfortable offseason in Eugene. So much for that Top Five stuff...at least for the moment. With a gaggle of returning playmakers including homerun soph RB LaMichael James (fortunate not to have received the Masoli suspension treatment for his own transgressions), Oregon could still be the team to beat in the Pac-10 if QBs sr. Nate Costa or RS soph Darron Thomas don't blink in the spotlight Masoli left behind.

11-WISCONSIN...We can envision AD Barry Alvarez grinning from ear-to-ear in his private box this fall at Camp Randall Stadium as the Badgers go about their business in the Alvarez style, with a big, physical, veteran OL bulldozing enemy defenses, as north-south blaster RBs deluxe John Clay (expected to be fully recovered from ankle surgeries that kept him out of spring work) & Montee Ball do their best Ron Dayne imitations for HC Bret Bielema, who will probably be smiling just like his boss. An extra bonus is QB Scott Tolzien, who matured into a dynamic force as '09 progressed and paced the Big Ten's highest-scoring attack at 32 ppg. With 10 starters back from that platoon and 8 more on defense (including soph sensation LB Chris Borland), plus a manageable slate, the Badgers loom as a darkhorse BCS title game threat.

12-OKLAHOMA...Bob Stoops was dealt a bad hand last fall, with offensive linchpins QB Sam Bradford & TE Jermaine Gresham KO'd early in the season, while the Sooners were also eventually forced to employ four different centers due to injuries. The upside of Bradford's injury was that Landry Jones got an early baptism and now has a bowl win (last year's Sun) under his belt. And RB DeMarco Murray could be poised for a breakout campaign. But losing so much prime-cut talent to the NFL (including three of the top four picks) has to hurt just a bit, and there is increasing chatter in Norman that Stoops is paying a bit more attention to potential suitors (Jerry Jones reportedly has him on speed-dial in Dallas ).

13-ARKANSAS...Now, if we could only pair the Razorbacks' offense with Nebraska's defense. Since that's not going to happen, we'll have to take our chances with Arkansas outscoring everybody, which might be possible with rocket-armed QB Ryan Mallett (expected by fall to be fully recovered from the foot injury that kept him out of spring) piloting Bobby Petrino's explosive attack. But any improvement from last year's "D" that ranked 99th vs. the pass will be much appreciated. The schedule is favorable, with alum Jerry Jones hosting the only potentially-tricky non-conference game in his Cowboys Stadium vs. Texas A&M, and with SEC West heavies Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU all visiting Fayetteville or Little Rock.

14-GEORGIA TECH...The schedule is nasty (trips to Kansas, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Georgia). And Tech loses first-round picks WR Demaryius Thomas & DE Derrick Morgan, plus star RB Jonathan Dwyer, to the NFL. But Paul Johnson's shrewd game-management skills that were a great equalizer at Navy have turned into a definable edge with more talent to work with in Atlanta. And since the ACC still can't seem to figure out how to deal with Johnson's ground-gobbling spread option, don't expect much dropoff from last year's Orange Bowl team that returns electric jr. Josh Nesbitt at QB. Meanwhile, Al Groh appears a perfect fit as the new d.c.; he certainly knows the league after coaching the past 9 years at Virginia.

15-SOUTHERN CAL...We're not sure what Lane Kiffin has done to keep landing these big-time coaching jobs without having accomplished much besides leaving an incendiary trail in his wake. And we don't know if Pete Carroll left him a crumbling dynasty or a program that just needs a new shot of adrenaline after last year's Trojans slipped to their worst mark (9-4) since Carroll's first year on the job in 2001. We do know that the Trojans have been nailed by the NCAA over the summer (among other things, no bowls this year or next). Moreover, soph QB Matt Barkley hardly looked like the second coming of John Elway as a frosh and loses plenty of supporting weaponry from a year ago. But the talent cupboard is never bare at Troy, and Lane's dad Monte might have a lot of fun coordinating a stop unit with one of the best DLs in the land. Whatever, rest assured SC foes will be getting some unexpected long-distance support in Knoxville this fall.

16-UTAH...Mountain West teams are making a habit of crashing the BCS party, and the Utes want back in that shindig after relinquishing their slot to TCU last fall. And the good news for Kyle Whittingham's troops is that the league schedule breaks favorably for them in 2010, with the Frogs and hated (no, h-a-a-a-a-ted) BYU both visiting Salt Lake City. When coupled with non-conference dates vs. Pitt (in a tasty ESPN Thursday-night home opener) and first-ever trip to Notre Dame late in the year, Utah has the schedule oomph to get the notice it desires. And it has the sort of team to handle it, with soph QB Jordan Wynn now an experienced on-field pilot after leading the Utes to yet another bowl win (over Cal in the Poinsettia), Utah's ninth straight, last December.

17-LSU...Three years removed from a BCS title, and worried about his job? No matter, demanding Baton Rouge folk are neither pleased with the recent direction of Tiger football nor the manner in which LSU has succumbed in some of its defeats under HC Les Miles, whose game-management skills have justifiably come under some fire. And confidence is not exactly sky-high in Tigerland after jr. QB Jordan Jefferson was so unimpressive in spring that Miles announced that the demoted Jarrett Lee might have a chance to win back his old job in the fall. Still, plenty of playmakers abound, as RS frosh RB Michael Ford and dual-threat soph Russell Shepard figure to spice things up for the strike force, and CB Patrick Patterson might be the nation's best.

18-NORTH CAROLINA...If we were convinced the Tar Heels were going to be any better than a year ago, we might rate them a bit higher. But until sr. QB T.J. Yates (14 TDP vs. 15 picks LY) displays something beyond mere serviceable status, we can't get excited about an attack that has continued to suffer from his shortcomings, plus spotty work along the OL. Butch Davis' "D," however, remains nasty, and with srs. DT Marvin Austin, LB Quan Sturdivant, and WR Greg Little bypassing the NFL draft for one more shot in Chapel Hill, there are enough impact performers on hand to once more make UNC appear irresistible on occasion. But there are enough roadblocks on the schedule (such as the opener vs. LSU at the Georgia Dome) to punish any recurring inconsistencies.

19-WEST VIRGINIA...We still think the highlight of Bill Stewart's coaching career in Morgantown will forever be his debut game in the 2008 BCS Fiesta Bowl, when he earned the WVU job on a permanent basis with a smashing upset win over Oklahoma. It's been a bit downhill since. But this year's Mountaineers do return 18 starters from LY's Gator Bowl team, including a peripheral Heisman threat in explosive RB Noel Devine (1465 YR in '09) as well as almost all of the key playmakers from a gnarly defense that might be the Big East's best. If ballyhooed soph QB Geno Smith proves an upgrade from the graduated Jarrett Brown, the Mountaineers can likely deal with a manageable slate and perhaps get Stewart back to the BCS.

20-MIAMI-FLORIDA...Since when did the Hurricanes enlist Fresno State's Pat Hill to make their schedule? Consecutive road trips to Ohio State, Pitt, and Clemson in the first month is the sort of tough-sledding Hill's Bulldogs or Sun Belt schools take on, not ranked programs such as Miami. But we're beginning to wonder just where the Canes fit in the big-time mix if extending the contract of HC Randy Shannon (who was at the bottom of the ACC pay scale along with BC's Frank Spaziani) proved to be such a sticky issue in the offseason. The rehabilitation of the program likely continues as long as QB Jacory Harris (thumb ligament surgery) and RB Graig Cooper (ACL surgery) are ready to go this fall.

21-PITTSBURGH...Beware the 'Stache! Dave Wannstedt appears on the verge of something special at Pitt, with one of the nation's top pass rushers (Greg Romeus), top runners (Dion Lewis), and top receivers (Jonathan Baldwin). But despite "arriving" a year ahead of schedule last season when narrowly missing out on a BCS berth in 2009, the Panthers are going to have to attack an aggressive non-conference schedule (Utah, Miami-Florida, and old nemesis Brian Kelly, now at Notre Dame) and an improved Big East with a green soph QB, Tino Sunseri, who was mostly kept under wraps in spring. Who thought the Panthers might end up missing QB Bill Stull?

22-PENN STATE...Those shocked to see Joe Paterno challenging Alabama in pre-league play after facing a steady diet of stiffs in recent years should remember that once upon a time "Shades" took on all comers as he built the Nittany Lions into a national brand. Despite needing to replace his LBs, as well as DT Jared Odrick, Paterno's defense should be representative as usual. But this could be a bad year for Penn State to face the Crimson Tide, plus travel to Iowa and Ohio State in Big Ten showdowns, because the offense appeared in need of lots more work in spring as the successors to QB Daryll Clark all struggled, while the rebuilt OL looked as if it might need time to jell.

23-NAVY...The Mids are getting so used to visiting the White House as a reward for their Commander-in-Chief's Trophies (now seven straight and counting) that sr. QB Ricky Dobbs has decided he wants to return one day to work full-time in the Oval Office. Before then, however, Dobbs could emerge as Annapolis' first Heisman winner since Roger Staubach if he can replicate some of his big numbers from last season, including a staggering 27 rushing TDs out of Navy's familiar spread option that hasn't lost a beat since Ken Niumatalolo succeeded Paul Johnson on the sidelines. And an early look at the schedule suggests the Mids (who last year took Ohio State to the limit, beat Notre Dame for the second time in three seasons, and routed Missouri in the Texas Bowl) don't figure to be prohibitive underdogs in any game this season for the first time in recent memory.

24-GEORGIA...With Tim Tebow finally leaving Florida, Tennessee in an adjustment phase, South Carolina still seeking traction for Steve Spurrier, Joker Phillips taking over for Rich Brooks at Kentucky, and Vanderbilt being, well, Vanderbilt, the SEC East looks more wide open than it has in recent years. Georgia has admittedly underachieved the past couple of years (which the Bulldog Nation has let HC Mark Richt know about). But the Dawgs could be a surprise package this fall if RS frosh QB Aaron Murray continues impressive work that allowed him to win the job in spring and the "D" quickly adapts to new d.c. Todd Grantham's aggressive 3-4 schemes.

25-HOUSTON...Looking for a longshot BCS buster? Try Houston, which starts off behind Boise, TCU and Utah in the buster queue, but will have a puncher's chance in expected shootouts vs. anybody on its schedule (non-league foes UCLA & Mississippi State beware) with QB sr. Case Keenum poised to break almost every NCAA career passing mark after firing for 5671 yards and 44 TDs in '09. Eight other starters return from an irresistible "O" that scored a nation's-best 42 ppg. But the problem area is defense, which allowed 35 or more seven different times last season and forced HC Kevin Sumlin to author sweeping offseason changes, hoping some jucos can fill gaps, as new d.c. Brian Stewart rolls the dice with an altered 3-4 alignment.

[StarDust Bum]

Predicting the Pac-10

If there was any league that saw a changing of the guard last season it was the Pac-10. Southern California has had its run of the conference, having won at least a share of the championship since 2002 before last season. That allowed the Ducks to make plans for Pasadena last January. Now that USC can’t win the conference or go bowling (thanks, Reggie Bush), who will reign supreme in 2010?

1: Oregon – Chip Kelly started his tenure as the Ducks’ head coach on a high note with a Rose Bowl berth after starting with a sucker punch. Things didn’t get better for Kelly during the offseason after having to dismiss starting quarterback Jeremiah Masoli from the program in full. There is, however, plenty to like about Oregon this year. LaMichael James won’t be on the field for the season opener, but is one of the better rushers in the Pac-10. And Nate Costa appears to be the right choice to replace Masoli under center. That doesn’t even cover a deep defense that brings back eight starters. The Ducks do have to make trips to USC and Oregon State, but those are the only games that could damper hopes in Eugene. This team has no excuse not to go 10-2.

2: Stanford – He might be a “Michigan Man,” but Jim Harbaugh has endeared himself to the Palo Alto faithful after a 6-3 record in Pac-10 play. And there is no reason to think they can’t improve again in ’10. Andrew Luck will be the main focal point of the Cardinal attack with Toby Gerhart in the NFL. The defense will be getting set into a new 3-4 setup to take advantage of linebackers like Shayne Skov and Chase Thomas. Road trips to Notre Dame, Oregon and Washington are tough tests. But the expectations should be set for a 9-3 campaign.

3: Oregon State – Last year ended with a horrid loss to BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl, but that won’t dampen spirits for the Beavers. Oregon State brings back nine starters on the attack, highlighted by running back Jacquizz and wide receiver James Rodgers. That should make things a little easier for Ryan Katz, who replaces Sean Canfield under center. Eight players come back on defense, but that might not be a good thing since they were 84th nationally against the pass (235.1 YPG). Mike Riley’s team doesn’t have it easy this year with road trips to TCU and Boise State in non-conference play. The plus side is they do get USC and Oregon at home in what should be an 8-4 record at the worst.

4: Southern California – Things are very different in Los Angeles this year as Pete Carroll has moved onto the NFL’s pastures of Seattle. Enter Lane Kiffin to run the program, who has shown that Bobby Petrino has better lasting power. This year will be a rough transition time with just five starters back on offense and another six on defense. Matt Barkley isn’t a given to be the starter this season under Kiffin with Mitch Mustain waiting patiently. The schedule opens up nicely with four teams that are in a world of hurt (Hawaii, Virginia, Minnesota, and Washington). But they are heading to Oregon State and Stanford. Not easy games and will push this team down to no worse than a 7-6 mark.

5: California – Every year we hear that the Golden Bears are finally going to turn the corner and win the Pac-10. And every year they find new and exciting ways to fail gloriously. There is some reason for hope with nine starters back on offense. Kevin Riley is back to run the offense under center and Shane Vereen taking over for Jahvid Best in the backfield. Cal also gets seven starters back on defense. While that sounds good, you have to realize this is a unit that was owned by Oregon, USC and Washington. That won’t be good against those same clubs this year as they slop around to a 6-6 finish.

6: Arizona – The good news for the Wildcats is that they’re returning an offense that has 11 veterans coming back after back-to-back bowls for the first time since the late 90s. Nick Foles is a quality field general to run the Sonny Dykes-style offense even though the mastermind behind the attack is now at Louisiana Tech. An early home date with Iowa is a tough one for the ‘Cats, but they are built for a strong start to the year. Closing the campaign with Washington, Stanford, USC and Oregon means this is a team is primed for a setback at 6-6.

7: Washington – The Huskies finished just shy of being bowl eligible last year, but that didn’t stop folks from extolling praise upon Steve Sarkisian. And there will be even more excitement with Jake Locker heading an offense that brings nine other starters besides himself. Defensively, Washington leaves a lot to be desired in the trenches. That lack of strength up front will hurt against teams like BYU and Nebraska to start the year in a ballsy set of non-conference affairs. Then you have to take into account that they are heading to USC, Arizona, Oregon and California. It might not be the next level that everyone was expecting, but a 6-6 mark in 2010 would be a great step for this program.

8: Arizona State – It might be time to say that Dennis Erickson is ready to get his last drink to go in Tempe this season. The Sun Devils have lost 18 of their last 29 games with Erickson running the show. Arizona State’s problems stem from an offense that ranked 90th nationally last season. A revamped attack has plenty of folks optimistic with either Steven Threet or Brock Osweiler taking over as top signal caller. This team does have a stout defense that ranked 13th in total defense last season. And seven starters coming back on that defensive unit has to make some folks happy. Erickson pads the opening of the season nicely with games against Portland State and Northern Arizona to warm up for a trip to Madison for a date with the Badgers. Road tests against the Beavers, Huskies, Bears, Trojans and Wildcats lean ASU to finishing 2010 at 5-7.

9: UCLA – Rick Neuheisel has successfully sold the fact that the Bruins have to be bad before they can be good…even if it means you need three years of garbage to find daylight. UCLA’s offense is going to be employing a brand new “Pistol” offense to help them find some sort of a running game seeing that they were 97th on the ground. They do get a good shot at a season opening win in the “Little Apple” against Kansas State. Then they can get slapped around by the Longhorns two weeks later. Neuheisel proves prophetic about this team as the Bruins appear tailor made for a 3-9 record.

10: Washington State – What can be said about a team that never held a lead in regulation during the 2009 campaign? That’s what the Cougars managed to pull off last season. And sadly there is nothing to be said about Washington State except that Paul Wulff incredibly still has a job at his alma mater. Wazzu does have one of the more veteran clubs coming back in the Pac-10 (8 on offense, 9 on defense). Problem is they are from an offense that was 119th and a defense that was 120th (also known as “dead last”) nationally. This is the season that Wulff goes 0-12 and leaves in a blaze of failure.

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-10 Preview

After capturing seven straight PAC 10 titles, the University of Spoiled Children (USC) was hit hard in 2009. Not only in the standings but also during the off-season when head coach Pete Carroll scooted off to Seattle in the NFL. And suddenly, just like that, a race is on in the PAC 10.

Replacing Carroll is Lane Kiffin, the celebrated former head coach with Tennessee (last year) and Oakland in the NFL. Kiffin is an ex-assistant with the Trojans who has a penchant for recruiting. His first recruiting class, with the Volunteers last year, was ranked best in the land by Rivals but he drew more attention when he received a 'verbal' commitment from 13-year-old quarterback David Sills. USC is one of two teams (UNLV the other) that will face 13 FBS opponents this year.

Knocking on the door will be California and the teams from Oregon, three teams that have been bridesmaids much throughout the Carroll era. And the feeling here is Washington, behind QB Jake Locker – a possible first pick in this year’s NFL draft – will have a strong say in who finishes where in this wide open loop.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

ARIZONA – *10 / 4
TEAM THEME: GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS
One of the smartest moves HC Mike Stoops made in his six years at the Wildcats’ helm was bringing OC Sonny Dykes in to run his offense. In three short seasons, Dykes turned an offense that was averaging 253 total yards and 17 PPG into an attack that accounted for over 30 PPG and just under 400 yards of total offense. The trouble in Tucson is that Dykes has taken his playbook to Louisiana Tech. The good news for the feline faithful is the Wildcats return 10 starters from an offense that rushed for over 2,000 yards and 19 TD’s and threw for more than 3,000 yards and 20 scores. While we’re not fond of Stoops’ plan to form co-offensive coordinators among the current staff, we’re guessing they’ll be more good news than bad news this season – if QB Nick Foles and RB Nic Grigsby don’t get too ‘nicked’ up.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Arizona St (12/2)

ARIZONA STATE – 7 / 7
TEAM THEME: ROAD BLOCKS
After leading the Sun Devils to a 10-win season in his first year at Tempe, Dennis Erickson has only been able to muster a total of nine wins in the past two campaigns. It should be another tough road ahead for the veteran HC as five of ASU’s six away games this season are against bowlers. In defense of Erickson, his Sun Devils fielded one of the youngest teams in the country last year while losing three starting O-linemen to season-ending injuries. And speaking of defense, seven starters return from a unit that was tops in the Pac-10 and 13th nationally. The erratic offense should get a boost with redshirt JR QB Steven Threet, a Michigan transfer, competing for the starting job. While Devils’ fans shouldn’t experience another season of complete hell, those trips outside of Tempe put us at a crossroad in determining ASU’s 2010 fate.
PLAY ON: vs. Oregon St (10/2)

CALIFORNIA – *9 / 7
TEAM THEME: EIGHT IS NOT ENOUGH
Jeff Tedford enters the season as the longest tenured coach in the Pac-10. In his first eight years at the Cal helm, his Bears own the second winningest record among conference foes. Despite turning around a 1-10 program, producing eight straight winning seasons and a delivering a 5-2 bowl record, the Berkeley bunch wants more. Granted, the Bears did beat two ranked opponents in the same season last year for the first time since 1950. To get to the next level, however, Tedford will have to address a couple of issues. Replacing RB Jahvid Best, a first-round draft choice, will fall to the fast feet of junior Shane Vereen who accounted for 852 yards and 12 TD’s during Best’s injury-plagued 2009 season. The bigger concern is to repair a defense that slipped 63 YPG last season. Rest assured, Tedford will not sleep until these Bears, at minimum, smell the Roses.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. USC (10/16) – *KEY +10 pts or more

OREGON – 9 / 8
TEAM THEME: WHAT THE DUCK IS GOING ON?
Let’s tell it like it is: the black clouds recently cast over the Oregon program are nearly as ugly as their uniforms. RB LeGarrette Blount’s Mike Tyson-like display in last season’s opener cost him dearly in this year’s NFL draft. His back-up, LaMichael James (physical harassment) was suspended for this year’s season opener and all-everything QB Jeremiah Masoli (burglary) was dismissed from the squad and since enrolled at Ole Miss. Not only was Masoli an All-Pac 10 second-team performer, he led the Ducks to an 8-1 league record in which they scored 36 or more points in every contest. A junior-laden team in 2009, the Ducks will now turn to senior leadership and 17 returning starters in hopes of overcoming these key player losses and the egg they laid in last year’s Rose Bowl. Early pre-season polls put them in the Top 12 but we’ll wait on their trip to Rocky Top before figuring out what to do with this Quack Attack.
PLAY ON: vs. Stanford (10/2)

OREGON STATE – 9 / 8
TEAM THEME: BEAVER FEVER
Here’s another bar bet you’ll win nine out of ten times: Name the ONLY team to finish in the top three in the Pac-10 standings each of the last four seasons. Drink up if you had the Beavers on your mind. OSU’s 25-11 conference record is second only to USC’s 27-9 league mark during that span. In fact, Oregon State went 80-46 this past decade, after going 28-81-1 during the ‘90’s. The mastermind behind the success is HC Mike Riley, who spurned USC’s advances in the off-season to remain in Corvallis. While the defense slipped a bit, the offense was efficient, committing only 11 turnovers. 17 returning starters, led by the Rodgers brothers (RB Jaquizz and WR James), should be enough to overcome the loss of QB Sean Canfield. With September games versus TCU and Boise State, we’ll find out early if we want to mess with these Beavers.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. USC (11/20)

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA – *5 / 6
TEAM THEME: CHANGING LANES
The nine-year Pete Carroll era came to a stunning end when he took the NFL money and headed for Seattle. The Trojans now turn to 34-year old Lane Kiffin, who bolted Rocky Top after one season, to return to the USC sidelines. Kiffin was an integral part of Carroll’s first six staffs. “Having been here before, during the championship years, makes the transition a seamless one… I love that,” said Kiffin. He brings an all-star coaching staff to tackle a 13-game schedule that sends them packing for four of their first six games. A favorable non-conference schedule finds nary a winning opponent, but do these Trojans have the horses to get back on top? Be careful as our Midweek Alert points out: USC was just 4-4 In The Stats against bowlers last year after going 30-5 the previous five years. Maybe it wasn’t the money that caused Carroll to jump off this Trojan horse.
PLAY ON: vs. Washington (10/2)

STANFORD – *8 / 6
TEAM THEME: REDBIRD GOING… UP
It’s no wonder that Jim Harbaugh is on every team’s ‘in need of a coaching upgrade’ list. 2009 saw Stanford break a string of seven straight losing seasons and with any ‘Luck’, 2010 will see the Cardinal record a bowl win for the first time since 1996. If Harbaugh plays his ‘Cards’ right, and we’re sure he will, he’ll ride the right arm of QB Andrew Luck to a top echelon job just about the time Luck, a first-team all-freshman selection last year, heads off to the NFL. As Luck may have it, an offensive line that allowed the 2nd fewest sacks in the land last year returns virtually intact. While replacing Heisman runner-up RB Toby Gerhart won’t be an easy assignment, Harbaugh does have the luxury of eleven 5th and 6th-year seniors on the roster. With three of the top four tacklers back on defense, it looks like all the Cards are falling into place in 2010.
PLAY ON: vs. Arizona (11/6)

UCLA – *7 / 5
TEAM THEME: ROSE(BOWL)-COLORED GLASSES
A big jump on offense and steady improvement on defense has the Bruins back in contention in the watered-down Pac-10. Rick Neuheisel’s biggest hurdle this season will be to replenish a defense that loses six starters, including four all-league performers. Still, there’s a feeling of confidence in the L.A. air as four wins in the final five games of the season, along with a Top 10 recruiting class, has UCLA breathing a bit more comfortable these days. “I expect us to continue to build on the growth and progress we made on offense a year ago. Most of all, our young players have now gained starting experience and are entering the third year of our system,” says a self-assured Neuheisel. Trips to Texas, Cal and Oregon don’t exactly have us brimming but it’s tough to question the UCLA head man who has had just two losing seasons in 10 years as a college head coach.
PLAY ON: vs. Texas (9/25) – *KEY as DD dog

WASHINGTON – *10 / 6
TEAM THEME: UNDER LOCK AND SAR-KEY
The return of a healthy Jake Locker saw the Washington attack take a quantum leap in 2009 as the Huskies doubled their offensive output from that forgettable 0-12 effort in 2008. The offense, which stays virtually intact, figures to take another jump forward as Locker, the potential top pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, decided to stay in school for his senior season. Last year’s five win campaign – their most since 2006 – could have even been higher if not for a couple of close road losses at Notre Dame, Arizona State and UCLA. Second-year HC Steve Sarkisian ended his rookie campaign on a high note with a 42-10 thrashing of Cal and is itching to get back to work as 17 other starters join Locker in Seattle. To no one’s surprise, the former NY Giants’ DC improved the Huskies ‘D’ dramatically last season. However, in 2010 it’s all about the ‘O’. Lock it up.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Arizona (10/23)

WASHINGTON STATE – *8 / 9
TEAM THEME: MORE AFRAID OF VIRGINIA
If you thought 2008 wasn’t a pretty year in Pullman – check out 2009. Paul Wulff’s Cougars allowed more yards than any team in the country by a wide margin and totaled more than only New Mexico State. Despite a slew of young talented players that are a year older in 2010, Pac-10 scribes pick State to, once again, finish in the conference cellar. On the heels of the worst two-year stretch in school history – in which the Cougars have posted a 3-22 record while averaging 12.5 PPG and allowing 41.5 PPG – who could blame them? The offense should get a boost as SO QB Jeff Tuel, who took over the job last October and actually played well before a season-ending kneecap injury, returns along with all of his top WR’s. Maybe the Cougars can sneak up on a few teams this season, as it’s unlikely any of the nine winning teams on this year’s slate are afraid of this Wulff.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. SMU (9/18)

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Predicting the Big XII

When Texas narrowly defeated the Cornhuskers for the Big XII title last season, it appeared that the league had a chance for a renaissance of the early years of its existence. It’s a shame we won’t see another finale like that after this season with Nebraska heading to the Big Ten for the 2011 campaign. Then the Buffaloes allow the league some addition by subtraction by heading to the Pac-10 in two years. Still, we get one last title game out of this group. Let’s look at how both divisions stack up.

Big XII North:

1: Nebraska – The Cornhuskers have a lot of reasons to be excited about this season. They are coming off of a 33-0 bitch slapping of Arizona in the Holiday Bowl. They’re also bringing back 17 starters. Nebraska will no doubt suffer a drop-off on defense with seven starters returning that aren’t named Ndamukong Suh. Offensively, this program is still a work in progress with Zac Lee coming off of elbow surgery that kept him out of spring practice. The ‘Huskers get some leeway to start the season with a pair of cupcakes before heading to Seattle to face the Huskies. An Oct. 16 home test against the Longhorns is the only big challenge. There is no reason not to believe Bo Pelini will guide them to a 10-2 mark.

2: Missouri – It sure looks like Gary Pinkel has turned Missouri into a destination for many quality players in the country. He was able to keep Blaine Gabbert in-state to guide his high power offense. And he has a three-year starter in Derrick Washington to run the ball with great vision and speed. Mizzou has been soft on defense as of late (370.1 YPG, 64th nationally). They do have Aldon Smith coming off of an 11 ½ sack freshman campaign to anchor the defensive line. And the secondary returns intact with four senior starters. The season starts strong with a “gimme” against the Fighting Illini in St. Louis. What is an issue is the middle of the Tigers’ schedule. They play at Texas A&M, vs. Oklahoma, at Nebraska and at Texas Tech. And they won’t even get a bye week in that stretch. The logical prediction for this team is 8-4.

3: Kansas State – For whatever reason, Bill Snyder just gets things done in Manhattan. The Wildcats finished up with a solid 6-6 mark in his first year back. Now the Wildcats bring back 16 starters from that club. K-State will hit the ground hard with Daniel Thomas being a jack-of-all-trades as he’ll get some snaps under center. I’m sure plenty of Kansas State fans will be expecting Thomas to get the majority of those snaps in place of Carson Coffman, who never saw a defender he couldn’t throw an interception to in limited play in 2009. A win over UCLA to start the year is possible since they’re not supposed to be pretty bad. But games with Baylor, Texas from the other division is rough. I’ve got them finishing at 5-7, but could seem them hitting .500 again.

4: Iowa State – The sky is the limit in Ames right now after the Cyclones finished with a 7-6 record last season. There is reason for more optimism with Iowa State as Austen Arnaud and Alexander Robinson have improved a lot over the spring practices. This team is not all that big on the defensive line, averaging 256.5 pounds per body. The linebacking corp is inexperienced, but a lot more physical and the secondary is expected to be improved. The non-conference schedule is tough with Iowa and Utah on the slate. And trips to Oklahoma and Texas won’t do the Cyclones any favors. This team is actually better than the unit that went bowling last year. However, they’ll be 4-8 when all is said and done.

5: Colorado – There was a time that the Buffaloes thought they hit the jackpot by bringing in Dan Hawkins from Boise State. Four years and a 16-33 record have Hawkins wondering if Colorado is playing Division I football. There are pluses for the Buffs, notably an o-line that is returning everyone. That will help Rodney Stewart more as he runs the ball…might even help Cody Hawkins or Tyler Hansen under center (doubt it). The Buffaloes’ defense brings back seven starters, but boasts a lot more depth than any iteration of the unit has seen in Hawkins’ tenure. Colorado is faced with a must-win battle against the Rams that is the only real winnable game on its schedule. Yet I believe they’ll find a way to end up 3-9 once again. Perhaps Hawkins should get his resume cleaned up.

6: Kansas – Turner Gill is happy to be coaching in the Big XII, but won’t be pleased with the team he’s running in 2010. The Jayhawks are starting a new quarterback while installing a new offensive scheme to improve their running game (112.1 YPG, 101st nationally), which is not going to be easy. Kansas does bring back seven returning starters on defense, but they were not exactly known for speed last season. Don’t look for a miracle in Lawrence, where a 3-9 mark begins the post-Mangino era.

Big XII South :

1: Texas – The Longhorns may have lost the national championship last season, but there is plenty of reason to be optimistic in 2010. Garrett Gilbert grew up before everyone last January against the Crimson Tide, nearly guiding Texas to the title. Tre Newton looks to get a lot more playing time in the backfield this year since Gilbert is less mobile than old starter Colt McCoy. Texas is returning seven starters back on one of the nation’s best defenses, anchored by defensive end Sam Acho. Not much to worry about on the schedule for the ‘Horns outside of the battle with OU, so an 11-1 campaign is fully expected.

2: Oklahoma – Last year is being considered a fluke by many of the Sooner Nation. But 2009 could yield some serious dividends. Landry Jones was baptized by fire after Sam Bradford went down for the count, starting in 10 games. It helps Jones to know that DeMarco Murray to elude defenses and a complete offensive line coming back to Norman. The defense is a little thin with just six returning starters, which will have a tough time against the Seminoles, Falcons and Bearcats in non-conference play. But the league schedule is a cakewalk outside of the Red River Rivalry and puts the Sooners at 10-2.

3: Texas Tech – This year will be one of change for the Red Raiders with Tommy Tuberville taking over for the always riveting Mike Leach. He’ll get the wild air attack that Leach had already installed this season with Taylor Potts. But Tuberville will be installing a much more functional running game to give some balance to Texas Tech’s offense. The Raiders’ defense is going to be thin up front with just one starter coming back on the d-line. This is going to be a learning year for Texas Tech as they wind up with a 6-6 record.

4: Texas A&M – Mike Sherman has the Aggies going in the right direction after getting to a bowl game in second season at the helm. Yet there is plenty of room for improvement. The defense is in need of a major overhaul, switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 scheme. Jerrod Johnson will have a tough go of it in matching last years passing numbers (30 TD, 8 INT) with just one returning wide out from last year’s squad in Jeff Fuller. The schedule is full of teams they can hang with offensively. Only one problem, can they stop teams like the Sooners, Tigers and ‘Horns? I’m thinking that’s a “no.” Texas A&M will be happy with a 6-6 effort this year.

5: Oklahoma State – There is no shortage of disappointment in Stillwater after the Cowboys finished 2009 with a 9-4 mark. Last season was supposed to Oklahoma State’s year to make something happen. Now the ‘Pokes are starting 27-year-old Brandon Weeden at QB in an offense that OC Dana Holgorsen had with him at Houston last season. That Cougars’ attack was the No. 1 offense in the nation in 2009, by the way. Don’t look for the defense to do much, returning just four starters. A 7-5 campaign would be a positive considering the overhaul, but 6-6 is more realistic.

6: Baylor – I want to believe that the Bears are going to be the surprise of the Big XII this season. I really do. But they are pinning everything on Robert Griffin to return to full strength after injuring his right knee last year. Griffin will help an offense that was just awful to watch last year (342.9 YPG, 85th nationally). Baylor also has to figure out how to fix a defense that was 94th, allowing over 405 yards per game in ’09. Art Briles’ squad does have winnable against some scrubs like Sam Houston State and Rice. What stinks for Baylor is that they face one of the tougher division in college football and that means they’ll wind up around 5-7.

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Week 1 Numbers

Thanks to The Golden Nugget in Las Vegas, we’ve had an idea on a bunch of Week 1 lines since early June. However, we now know the numbers for every opener on the board after a slew of offshore betting shops released lines Wednesday morning (8/4).

The Nugget opened North Carolina as a three-point favorite for its showdown against LSU at the Georgia Dome, but the game is now a pick ‘em at most spots. In fact, a few books have the Tigers as one-point ‘chalk.’

I expected that adjustment even before a pair of UNC players got caught up in off-the-field episodes. Senior linebacker Quan Sturdivant was arrested for possession of marijuana and DE Marvin Austin is being investigated by the NCAA for potential contact with an agent. Both players are listed as first-team preseason All-Americans in nearly every magazine on the shelf. Punishment (if any) for those players has yet to be announced.

The total for LSU-UNC is 40 ½.

Boise St. is either a two or 2 ½-point favorite for its trip to the Eastern time zone to face Virginia Tech at FedEx Field in Washington D.C. The Broncos, who are coming off a 14-0 season and return every key player with the exception of All-American cornerback Kyle Wilson, haven’t lost a regular-season game since Colt Brennan led Hawaii past BSU in the 2007 regular-season finale.

Frank Beamer’s team finished 10-3 last year, thumping Tennessee by a 37-14 count in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. The Hokies return eight starters on offense, not to mention RB Darren Evans, who rushed for 1,265 yards in ’08 before tearing his ACL last summer. They have only four starters back on defense, but coordinator Bud Foster always has this unit ready to compete at a high level.

I have as much respect for Chris Petersen and his program as anybody, and I certainly think the Broncos are legit national-title contenders this year. With that said, I’m still a tad surprised to see them favored over Va. Tech in a game being played in the Hokies’ neighborhood. Granted, the travel factor isn’t in play as much for a season opener, but my early lean is certainly to the short underdog.

This game will be aired on ABC in the prime-time slot Monday to wrap up Week 1. Most books have the total at 51.

There are seven games on the board for Thursday and six of them will be televised for bettors. The action starts at 7:30 p.m. Eastern with South Carolina hosting Southern Miss as a 14-point home favorite on ESPN.

This is a make-a-break year for Steve Spurrier, who I think will retire if the Gamecocks don’t win at least eight regular-season games. With Florida, Georgia and Tennessee breaking in new quarterbacks, the SEC East has never been this ripe for the taking.

Don’t sleep on the Golden Eagles, though. Larry Fedora is a rising star in the coaching profession and he has a pair of QBs in Austin Davis and Martevious Young who combined for a sensational 26/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio last season. No matter who is under center, the favorite target will be junior WR DeAndre Brown, who had nine TD grabs in ’09 and was a huge recruiting coup for So. Miss when he chose it over LSU.

Most books have tabbed Ohio St. as a 28-point favorite against Marshall on the Big Ten Network. The total is 45 for Doc Holliday’s head-coaching debut for the Thundering Herd.

While most betting shops have Alabama as the favorite – in the plus-400 range – to repeat as national champs, Sportsbook.com has Ohio St. as the plus-450 ‘chalk’ (risk $100 to win $450). The offshore book has the Crimson Tide with 6/1 odds.

This space always has doubts about the Buckeyes, perhaps due to that 0-for-LIFE-against-the-SEC thing, but we will give props to Terrelle Pryor and Co. for taking my money and proving me wrong in impressive wins over Penn St. and Oregon late last season.

Also on Thursday, Utah will host Pitt as a three-point home favorite on Versus. The total is 50. This is a rematch of the 2004 Fiesta Bowl when the Utes thumped the Panthers 35-7 to complete their perfect season.

Although ESPN has been chafin’ me beyond belief with its recent coverage of LeBron and Favre, we have to give the World Wide Leader kudos for spreading out the Thursday games perfectly for the gambling community. Right on cue following the South Carolina-So. Miss game, Hawaii will play host to Southern Cal.

Most spots have installed the Trojans as 18 ½-point favorites with a total of 51. Kick-off is scheduled for 11:00 p.m. Eastern.

USC has won all six meetings against the Warriors, including a 63-17 triumph in the 2005 lid-lifter. The Trojans are 2-7 versus the number in their last nine games as double-digit favorites. Hawaii is 4-4 ATS as a home underdog under Greg McMackin, who is on the hot seat going into his third year since replacing June Jones.

On Friday, most books are listing Arizona as a 14 ½-point favorite at Toledo. The total is ranging from as low as 57 to as high as 58 ½. Kick-off is slated for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

The action starts at noon Eastern on Saturday with a pair of mismatches. Michigan St. will host Western Michigan as a 21-point favorite, while Florida is listed as a 34-point ‘chalk’ vs. Miami (OH.).

Later in the day, I smell a (minor) upset at The Big House. We’ve seen App St. and Utah go into Ann Arbor and win outright in recent season openers, and we’re thinking the same thing when Randy Edsall brings his UConn bunch to Michigan.

Most books are listing the Wolverines as short 2 ½-point favorites.

There will be hype galore for the debut of Brian Kelly at Notre Dame. The Irish will take on Purdue as a 10 ½-point home favorite at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on NBC.

Also in the 3:30 Eastern time slot, Charlie Strong will make his head-coaching debut for Louisville. The Cards are listed as three-point home underdogs against arch-rival Kentucky, which has handed over the reigns to Joker Phillips, the second African American head coach in SEC history (assuming you don’t count Strong’s one game as interim coach at Florida between Ron Zook and Urban Meyer).

Competing for an audience with UNC-LSU, TCU and Oregon St. will collide at Cowboys Stadium for a 7:45 p.m. Eastern start on ESPN. The Horned Frogs are 13-point favorites at most spots.

When UNC-LSU goes final Saturday night, bettors can turn their attention to a pair of late-night matchups. Fresno St. will take on Cincinnati at 10:00 p.m. Eastern in a pick ‘em affair on ESPN2. The Bulldogs are looking to replace Ryan Mathews, who led the nation in rushing last season. Meanwhile, the Bearcats have a new head coach in Butch Jones, who replaces Kelly after his departure to Notre Dame.

Even though Tony Pike is gone, Cincy has an outstanding QB in Zach Collaros, who exploded on the national scene with a breakout performance in a 34-17 win at South Fla. on ESPN last year. Filling in for an injured Pike, Collaros completed 75 percent of his passes with a 10/2 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for four TDs and averaged 6.0 yards per carry.

On Versus at 11:00 p.m. Eastern, Wisconsin plays at UNLV (ding-ding!). Yeah, the matchup that makes veteran gamblers ill. Remember the night the lights went out at Sam Boyd Stadium? That would be in 2002 when the Badgers were trouncing the Rebels by a 27-7 count at the 7:41 mark of the fourth quarter.

Depending on when a wager was placed, bettors on the Badgers were laying anywhere from three points to possibly as much as seven. Whatever the case, a winner was in the bag. However, a power outage left Sam Boyd Stadium dark and the game was called. This cancelled all bets due to an obscure sportsbook rule that all football games in both college and the NFL must go 55 minutes to be official. Alas, the lights went out two minutes and 41 seconds too early (unless you were on the home underdogs).

Anyway, back to this year’s contest, most books have Wisconsin favored by 19 ½ with a total of 58. Not necessarily laying this big number on the road, but I’m bullish on Wisconsin in general this year. The Badgers, who get Ohio St. at Camp Randall on Oct. 16, have 10 starters back on offense and six on defense. They finished ’09 with a 10-3 record after beating Miami 20-14 at the Champs Sports Bowl (in Florida).

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--The fifth game on Thursday that we failed to mention: No. Illinois at Iowa St. The Cyclones are three-point home favorites with a total of 47. FSN will have the telecast.

--The two ‘added games’ on Thursday to complete the card: Minnesota at Middle Tennessee and Fla. Atlantic at UAB. The Gophers are actually 4 ½-point underdogs against the Blue Raiders from out of the Sun Belt Conference. ESPNU will have television coverage at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. Finally, the Blazers are 12-point favorites with a total of 55.

--Northwestern is a three-point 'chalk' at Vandy in the debut for Robbie Caldwell, who had his ‘interim’ tag removed from his head-coaching label last week. Caldwell is replacing Bobby Johnson, who retired a few weeks ago after guiding the Vandy program for eight years.

--We mentioned Oregon State’s Week 1 game against TCU at Cowboys Stadium. The Beavers also play at Boise St. this year, so we have to give them props for a non-conference schedule that features a pair of road games against the two premier ‘mid-majors’ in college football. They also played at Utah two seasons ago.

--Best game I didn’t mention: Washington at BYU. The Cougars are three-point home favorites.

--Here's a pretty good take on the aformentioned UNLV-Wisconsin game from 2002.