Why Bill B Was Right

[plandbill]

Let me start by saying I am a big Colt fan and season tix holder.

I had a bad feeling when BB decided to go for it on 4th and 2 last nite but was elated with the result. It seemed a crazy move by him and one no other coach in fball would do, that is for sure. I heard all the ex coaches and pundits scream and yell that Bill was WRONG. But I kept wondering if he was wrong, why did I, a Colt fan, not want him to go fo it.

Let me explain- the odds say it was a GREAT move.

I give NE with his offense(and some on ESPN say history of NE proves this) a 75% chance of getting the 1st down, which effectively guaranteed a victory for them .

If Indy has to drive 70 yards with 2 min warning and only 1 time out, I give Manning a 40% chance of scoring a TD.

If NE does not make it and Indy has to drive 30 years(as they did) I give them a 85% chance of scoring a TD.

Thus with BB's strategy 75% of time his team wins for sure and with the other 25% of the time he wins 15% of the time. Thus going for it means he wins 78.75% if the time.

By punting it, he would win 60% of the time as Indy will score in 40% of the time.

He took the best odds- 78.75% vs 60%. I believe you can argue with my %'s but they are not far off. Move them 5% +/_ and my argument still holds. Billy B made the correct call, he is the only coach in fball with the balls to do such. The safe call was to punt, play prevent defense and then lose and no one questions you. That is what all the other coaches do. Just because fball is always coached the same way does not make it right. He had the courage to make the right call, it did not work out and now all question him. I say he is just much smarter and courageous than all!

[frankb03]

I've seen worse calls go unquestioned. I can't fault a coach for playing to WIN. Too many coaches are too conservative and coach NOT to lose. Last week, Tom Coughlin coached not to lose. HE LOST! In that spot if the Giants play for the TD they win. He chose the conservative and gutless approach. As it happens far too often you lose.

This week BB coached to win. It backfired. He lost. If they get the FD. They win. If they punt the ball there's no guarantee the Patriots hold on for the win.

IMO it wasn't the wrong choice.

[savage1]

I don't buy the 40% chance at all for Manning to score a touchdown.
Has Manning scored a touchdown 40% of the time in general during to go 70 yards at any point in the game?
Even though I am a Pats fan and think highly of Belichick, considering the circumstances and the message that he sent out to his defense that he basically had no confidence in them to stop Manning, I would regard the decision as one of the WORST football coaching decisions I have ever seen at any level by any coach.
What if Belichick had gone for it had his team been at its own 5 yard line, would it still have been a wise decision as opposed to punting it or better taking a safety?
For a game of this importance, I think it was a sad, sorry, ill advised and truly horrible decision.

[savage1]

In previous post, in second line word after during should be "games?'

[frankb03]

Even though I am a Pats fan and think highly of Belichick, considering the circumstances and the message that he sent out to his defense that he basically had no confidence in them to stop Manning

I don't buy into this "message he sent to his defense". Of course the defense would have liked the opportunity to stop Manning. Does one actually think it'll have long term affect on the defense? I don't! Does one think it'll affect their performance this next game or any games down the stretch. Doubtful! It was forgotten 5 minutes after the game. It's not the first time a coach went for the FD on 4th down.

It's media hype BS. Something for the media to regurgitate for 2 or 3 days.



Pats support Belichick's gamble in loss to Colts - NewsTimes

[frankb03]

How come the media and fans weren't going crazy when Pats went for FD on their own 24 vs. Falcons? Was it because they converted or because it was the 3rd quarter? Or both?

[savage1]

How come the media and fans weren't going crazy when Pats went for FD on their own 24 vs. Falcons? Was it because they converted or because it was the 3rd quarter? Or both?

Using Belichick's logic/implication that going for it was a good idea because the best players are his offensive ones rather than defensive ones, then perhaps Belichick should carry this philosophy further and just eliminate the words punt and fourth down from his vocabulary and always go for the first down no matter how many yards are needed to make it, no matter what the score is and no matter what quarter it is and how much time to go.

[Chado1]

Give Manning 4 down territory against the Pats garbage D and he'll burn ya. Play for the win it was def a good call IMO...

[10DimeBry]

he should have punted it. #18 chokes when it counts. Bill should have known this.

[ogarza]

he should have punted it. #18 chokes when it counts. Bill should have known this.

it counted with 29 yards to go...game was still on the line...and 18 did not choke

[ogarza]

my questioning was not going for it...as I too believe that it wasn't all that bad of a call to decide to put the game in Brady's hands...my question is why did he not throw to Moss or Welker...surely you have a quick route to run for them, those are the guys getting paid to make the tough catches. I have not heard one person talk bout this on the most crucial play of the game you throw a high fast ball to your back-up running back instead of one of your top 2 wrs (2 of the best wrs in the game for that matter)...easy to question anything after the fact.

[jmarty6969]

he should have punted it. #18 chokes when it counts. Bill should have known this.

i disagree with ya on this lil buddy...............fyi

[wayne1218]

I havn't slept in 2 nights because of this game. I think i take my teams too seriously. It's just a game right!

[frankb03]

my questioning was not going for it...as I too believe that it wasn't all that bad of a call to decide to put the game in Brady's hands...my question is why did he not throw to Moss or Welker...surely you have a quick route to run for them, those are the guys getting paid to make the tough catches. I have not heard one person talk bout this on the most crucial play of the game you throw a high fast ball to your back-up running back instead of one of your top 2 wrs (2 of the best wrs in the game for that matter)...easy to question anything after the fact.

You raise a good point. Also, if the RB doesn't bobble the ball it's a first down for NE and we're not debating the play call.

[jmarty6969]

yup way to seriously because they will meet up again pal.............when game means more to it