Let me start by saying I am a big Colt fan and season tix holder.
I had a bad feeling when BB decided to go for it on 4th and 2 last nite but was elated with the result. It seemed a crazy move by him and one no other coach in fball would do, that is for sure. I heard all the ex coaches and pundits scream and yell that Bill was WRONG. But I kept wondering if he was wrong, why did I, a Colt fan, not want him to go fo it.
Let me explain- the odds say it was a GREAT move.
I give NE with his offense(and some on ESPN say history of NE proves this) a 75% chance of getting the 1st down, which effectively guaranteed a victory for them .
If Indy has to drive 70 yards with 2 min warning and only 1 time out, I give Manning a 40% chance of scoring a TD.
If NE does not make it and Indy has to drive 30 years(as they did) I give them a 85% chance of scoring a TD.
Thus with BB's strategy 75% of time his team wins for sure and with the other 25% of the time he wins 15% of the time. Thus going for it means he wins 78.75% if the time.
By punting it, he would win 60% of the time as Indy will score in 40% of the time.
He took the best odds- 78.75% vs 60%. I believe you can argue with my %'s but they are not far off. Move them 5% +/_ and my argument still holds. Billy B made the correct call, he is the only coach in fball with the balls to do such. The safe call was to punt, play prevent defense and then lose and no one questions you. That is what all the other coaches do. Just because fball is always coached the same way does not make it right. He had the courage to make the right call, it did not work out and now all question him. I say he is just much smarter and courageous than all!
I had a bad feeling when BB decided to go for it on 4th and 2 last nite but was elated with the result. It seemed a crazy move by him and one no other coach in fball would do, that is for sure. I heard all the ex coaches and pundits scream and yell that Bill was WRONG. But I kept wondering if he was wrong, why did I, a Colt fan, not want him to go fo it.
Let me explain- the odds say it was a GREAT move.
I give NE with his offense(and some on ESPN say history of NE proves this) a 75% chance of getting the 1st down, which effectively guaranteed a victory for them .
If Indy has to drive 70 yards with 2 min warning and only 1 time out, I give Manning a 40% chance of scoring a TD.
If NE does not make it and Indy has to drive 30 years(as they did) I give them a 85% chance of scoring a TD.
Thus with BB's strategy 75% of time his team wins for sure and with the other 25% of the time he wins 15% of the time. Thus going for it means he wins 78.75% if the time.
By punting it, he would win 60% of the time as Indy will score in 40% of the time.
He took the best odds- 78.75% vs 60%. I believe you can argue with my %'s but they are not far off. Move them 5% +/_ and my argument still holds. Billy B made the correct call, he is the only coach in fball with the balls to do such. The safe call was to punt, play prevent defense and then lose and no one questions you. That is what all the other coaches do. Just because fball is always coached the same way does not make it right. He had the courage to make the right call, it did not work out and now all question him. I say he is just much smarter and courageous than all!
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