The Best Bowl System I Have Seen 12-3 So Far !! - Please Take A Look!!

[harold_bush]

Ok Greek I am sold on it how does it look for this years bowls? We keep going over last year nobody can make any money on that now. As they say that ship sailed...

Who are our running dogs??????????

Greek is pretty clear that he doesn't want to spend the time to do all this himself, so it doesn't make sense to keep asking him roll everything out. He has roled out the plan, and we can all work on it. The only problem is that with ten people doing it, and people possibly doing it different ways (see slappy's post), who the hell knows how accurate it will be. The system is only good if the numbers are done correctly.

[GOLDENGREEK]

Guys - relax

the guy who did it last year and came up with all the plays will do it again this year

i will post the results when they are available for all lazy asses including myself

[Winton]

Greek your hard work is appreciated! Thanks again!

[garth]

i will post the results when they are available for all lazy asses including myself

Hail to the Greek, leader of the lazy asses! Thanks!

[swghost]

Guys - relax

the guy who did it last year and came up with all the plays will do it again this year

i will post the results when they are available for all lazy asses including myself

Thanks GG. But do yo have any input on Slaapy's Son comments? I would like to learn this myself... you know, that whole give a fish/ teach a man how thing.

[GOLDENGREEK]

Goldengreek - I did this differently. The reason I don't subtract is because what happens if one team's rushing value is less than what the other team gives up? Do you get a negative number?

I used the ( Offensive YPC + oppenent's defensive YPC ) / 2 = Avg yds per carry for team A. I did the same for the opposing team to get an Avg yds per carry. Simply look at the differential to see who will run the ball better per carry. It probably comes out close either way, but subtracting the numbers gets confusing because again, what do you do if Team A rushers for only 2.9 ypc, but the opponent's D gives up 3.5 ypc? Will this be a +0.6 or -0.6 for Team A? It just doesn't make sense doing it this way. IMHO. You need to use the "average" ypc. Team A would have a value of 3.2 ypc for this example.

Slappy-

I dont know what to tell you

I didnt come up with the system

I followed it last year and it produced winners

Maybe your way will be better ...I dont know

We can do it both ways and monitor which sytem is working better through the first 10-12 bowl games

Maybe the either way we do it it will spit out the same teams

Do it your way and when I get the results we will compare how many games are similar

[jmarty6969]

i am one of the lazy asses plus i wouldnt want to fuck up someone elses system.............they may do something different then we do..............does he put them all out same time or by each day greek thanks

[GOLDENGREEK]

i am one of the lazy asses plus i wouldnt want to fuck up someone elses system.............they may do something different then we do..............does he put them all out same time or by each day greek thanks

all at the same time and they will be ready and posted well before the first bowl game on the 20 th

[jmarty6969]

thanks buddy thanks for the answer much appreicated

[harold_bush]

all at the same time and they will be ready and posted well before the first bowl game on the 20 th

It is like you knew I was just going to ask that. Thanks.

[GOLDENGREEK]

SYSTEM # 1 RUNNING DOGS:

STOLEN / BORROWED FROM THE ORIGINATOR OF THE SYSTEM

I'm pretty much going to follow the same formula as I did last year. We had an outstanding bowl season with the running dogs. The better running teams in general were 22-10 SU and 23-9 ATS last year. But keep in mind that they aren't going to hit this well every year. In the 2006 bowl season the better running teams were 20-12 SU but only 18-14 ATS. So we have to be careful as we go, and to just remember that none of these Running Dogs are set in granite. The underdogs who had the better run numbers were 10-4 ATS last year. And 7-3 (71%) the season before. So that's why you really need to think hard before you go against a running dog. But at times we did last year. Remember the Arkansas/Missouri game. Arkansas had the much better run numbers and were the dogs in that game. But because of the other strong angles surrounding the game that went against Arkansas, I was on Missouri. So there will be exceptions to the rule. And I've already seen a couple running dogs that I will in all likihood be playing against. Here is the list of running dogs for this year:


Navy
Colorado St.
BYU
Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic
Wisconsin (HUGE)
La Tech
Western Michigan
Oregon (HUGE-Better defense too)
Air Force
Nebraska
Ole Miss
Kentucky
Tulsa

After crunching the numbers I'm having to go back and rethink some of these games. Especially Oregon/OSU, since my first impressions were OSU huge. But I'm a big believer in this system. And if neither of these teams give me a good enough reason to think otherwise, I will probably end up being on Oregon.


I just wanted to say one more thing concerning the BCS title game. First, anything that comes out of mouth is probably going to be through crimson and cream colored glasses for this game. So it's probably better I keep my mouth shut concerning this game Personally I think OU has just as many arguments why they should win this game as Florida. I won't be betting this game because I've already got a preseason prop bet on OU to win the BCS title at +800. So in a roundabout way I've already bet on it. At any rate, until Stoops comes through and actually wins a BCS game, I just can't put a lot of money on the Sooners. We can have a thousand arguments as to one side, so let's not clog up the thread on who is the better team. Let's just hope it is a great BCS title game for once. Probably the single biggest thing that I've used in helping to determin the winner of this game is the conference bowl records, and who has the best coming in. The winner of the BCS title games since 2000 has had at least as good if not a better conference bowl record as their opponent. So whichever conference, the SEC or Big 12, has the better bowl record coming into this game, this is the way I lean. You can't always go by one teams stats. Especially if they came from an inferior conference. Ohio State/Florida was a good example in the 2006 title game. Ohio State had some phenomenal numbers especially on defense. And they outscored their opponents by an average score of 36-10. But the problem was it was in a weak conference who went 2-5 in the bowl games compared to the SEC going 6-3. Big difference. And it showed in the final score. Here's how the conference win/loss bowl records break down since 2000:


2000 OU beats Florida St. 13-2
Big 12 4-3
ACC 1-4

2001 Miami beat Nebraska 37-14
Big East 4-0
Big 12 3-5

2002 Ohio State beat Miami 31-24
Big 10 5-2
Big East 2-2

2003 LSU beat OU 21-14
SEC: 5-2
Big 12: 2-6

2004 USC beat OU 55-19
Pac-10 3-2
Big 12 4-3

2005 Texas beat USC 41-38
Big 12 5-3
Pac-10 3-2

2006 Florida beat Ohio State 41-14
SEC 6-3
Big 10 2-5

2007 LSU beat Ohio State 38-24
SEC 7-2
Big 10 3-5

As you can see that aside from the 2004 season where the Pac-10 and Big 12 finshed about even, in the modern era of football the best conference in these bowls usually take care of business in the BCS title game. So whoever has the best record between the SEC and Big 12, that is the way I'll probably be leaning. I'll be putting in a couple bowl plays this weekend. I'm still putting a few things together.


Good luck!







The motivational factors and coaching changes can be huge for some of these teams in the bowls. Here is a list of a few things to think about for each game:

Fresno/Colorado St. Fresno has to be disappointed with their season after having BCS hopes. But CSU might just be happy to be there. Plus CSU has a first year coach.

TCU/Boise Neither of these teams should have any trouble being motivated for each other.

USF/Memphis USF has to be very disappointed in their season. Memphis probably looking to make up for last season's poor bowl showing.

Notre Dame/Hawaii ND has to be disappointed in their season. But also motivated to stop their bowl losing streak. Hawaii playing at home.

FAU/CMU Both were preseason faves in their respective conferences. So it's probably a wash.

West Virginia/UNC WV fell way short of their preseason goal. UNC's first bowl game in 4 years.

Wisconsin/FSU Neither achieved their goals.

Miami/CAL Miami just happy to be in a bowl. CAL underachieved?

NIU/La Tech Both just happy to be in a bowl

NCST/Rutgers NCST just happy to be in a bowl after missing last season and starting slow. Rutgers didn't achieve their goals but played well down the stretch. Tough call. Tom O'Brien coached teams have done well in their bowl games. Both teams red hot on offense.

Northwestern/Missouri NW should be pumped since nobody is giving them a prayer to beat Mizzou. Mizzou fell way short of their BCS goal.

Nevada/Maryland Nevada probably the more motivated team after getting beat in their bowl game last year. Maryland coming up short in the ACC.

WMU/Rice Rice is definitely motivated to win this game and get to 10 wins for only the second time in their school's history. Plus they haven't won a bowl game since I've been alive. And I'm older than dirt. But not as old as CoachLT...LOL

Oregon/OSU Both teams should be very motivated to play each other. OSU's DC leaving.

Houston/Air Force Houston looking for revenge from early season loss to AF in which the game was moved because of the hurricane that hit the Houston area.

Pitt/Oregon St. Pitt could possibly be a little disappointed by not making it to a BCS game. But OSU is probably devastated by not making it to the Rose Bowl. I would say Pitt has the motivational edge.

BC/Vandy Vandy should be motivated because this is their first bowl game in 26 years. But BC probably very motivated to extend their 8 game winning streak.

Minnesota/Kansas Minny probably has the motivational edge. But may be just happy to be there. Kansas taking a big step back from last season's BCS game.

LSU/GT GT should have the motivational and coaching edge. LSU going from the penthouse to the outhouse.

Iowa/South Carolina I htink Iowa probably has a huge motivational edge after missing out on a bowl last year. I think SC had bigger plans for this year. Plus their last two blowout losses doesn't help.

Clemson/Nebraska Same thing for Clemson as SC. A BIG disappointment this season, going up against a Husker team who missed a bowl last year. I'm also more apt to take first year coach Pelini over an interim coach.

MSU/Georgia Have to think Georgia's season was a huge disappointment.

Penn State/USC Both missed out on their BCS title dreams. The west coast angle always favors USC in these games.

VT/Cincy Both teams should be motivated. Cincy probably happy and shocked to be there.

Ole Miss/Texas Tech Probably a huge motivational edge for Ole Miss here after TT's BCS hopes went up like a nuclear bomb in Norman.

ECU/Kentucky ECU was thinking big earlier in the year. But I'm not sure there is really a motivational edge here.

Utah/Bama Utah HUGE after Bama blew their chance at a NC. Plus nobody is giving Utah a prayer.

Buffalo/UCONN Buffalo should definitely be motivated. But UCONN probably is too after losing their bowl game last season. Plus the Huskies have more bowl experience. Turner Gill possibly leaving?

Texas/Ohio State Will Texas be disappointed or pissed after missing out on a BCS title game? Like the Sooners, OSU would like to silence the critics. Possible revenge game for Colt McCoy after losing to OSU as a freshman starter. Tough motivational call.

Ball State/Tulsa Both have to be disappointed after losing their conference title games. But who will be the most devastated?

OU/FLorida OU should definitely be motivated after their last few BCS performances, and the fact that not many of the "experts" are giving them a chance. Florida will be pretty much the home team.

[harold_bush]

SYSTEM # 1 RUNNING DOGS:

STOLEN / BORROWED FROM THE ORIGINATOR OF THE SYSTEM

I'm pretty much going to follow the same formula as I did last year. We had an outstanding bowl season with the running dogs. The better running teams in general were 22-10 SU and 23-9 ATS last year. But keep in mind that they aren't going to hit this well every year. In the 2006 bowl season the better running teams were 20-12 SU but only 18-14 ATS. So we have to be careful as we go, and to just remember that none of these Running Dogs are set in granite. The underdogs who had the better run numbers were 10-4 ATS last year. And 7-3 (71%) the season before. So that's why you really need to think hard before you go against a running dog. But at times we did last year. Remember the Arkansas/Missouri game. Arkansas had the much better run numbers and were the dogs in that game. But because of the other strong angles surrounding the game that went against Arkansas, I was on Missouri. So there will be exceptions to the rule. And I've already seen a couple running dogs that I will in all likihood be playing against. Here is the list of running dogs for this year:


Navy
Colorado St.
BYU
Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic
Wisconsin (HUGE)
La Tech
Western Michigan
Oregon (HUGE-Better defense too)
Air Force
Nebraska
Ole Miss
Kentucky
Tulsa

After crunching the numbers I'm having to go back and rethink some of these games. Especially Oregon/OSU, since my first impressions were OSU huge. But I'm a big believer in this system. And if neither of these teams give me a good enough reason to think otherwise, I will probably end up being on Oregon.


I just wanted to say one more thing concerning the BCS title game. First, anything that comes out of mouth is probably going to be through crimson and cream colored glasses for this game. So it's probably better I keep my mouth shut concerning this game Personally I think OU has just as many arguments why they should win this game as Florida. I won't be betting this game because I've already got a preseason prop bet on OU to win the BCS title at +800. So in a roundabout way I've already bet on it. At any rate, until Stoops comes through and actually wins a BCS game, I just can't put a lot of money on the Sooners. We can have a thousand arguments as to one side, so let's not clog up the thread on who is the better team. Let's just hope it is a great BCS title game for once. Probably the single biggest thing that I've used in helping to determin the winner of this game is the conference bowl records, and who has the best coming in. The winner of the BCS title games since 2000 has had at least as good if not a better conference bowl record as their opponent. So whichever conference, the SEC or Big 12, has the better bowl record coming into this game, this is the way I lean. You can't always go by one teams stats. Especially if they came from an inferior conference. Ohio State/Florida was a good example in the 2006 title game. Ohio State had some phenomenal numbers especially on defense. And they outscored their opponents by an average score of 36-10. But the problem was it was in a weak conference who went 2-5 in the bowl games compared to the SEC going 6-3. Big difference. And it showed in the final score. Here's how the conference win/loss bowl records break down since 2000:


2000 OU beats Florida St. 13-2
Big 12 4-3
ACC 1-4

2001 Miami beat Nebraska 37-14
Big East 4-0
Big 12 3-5

2002 Ohio State beat Miami 31-24
Big 10 5-2
Big East 2-2

2003 LSU beat OU 21-14
SEC: 5-2
Big 12: 2-6

2004 USC beat OU 55-19
Pac-10 3-2
Big 12 4-3

2005 Texas beat USC 41-38
Big 12 5-3
Pac-10 3-2

2006 Florida beat Ohio State 41-14
SEC 6-3
Big 10 2-5

2007 LSU beat Ohio State 38-24
SEC 7-2
Big 10 3-5

As you can see that aside from the 2004 season where the Pac-10 and Big 12 finshed about even, in the modern era of football the best conference in these bowls usually take care of business in the BCS title game. So whoever has the best record between the SEC and Big 12, that is the way I'll probably be leaning. I'll be putting in a couple bowl plays this weekend. I'm still putting a few things together.


Good luck!







The motivational factors and coaching changes can be huge for some of these teams in the bowls. Here is a list of a few things to think about for each game:

Fresno/Colorado St. Fresno has to be disappointed with their season after having BCS hopes. But CSU might just be happy to be there. Plus CSU has a first year coach.

TCU/Boise Neither of these teams should have any trouble being motivated for each other.

USF/Memphis USF has to be very disappointed in their season. Memphis probably looking to make up for last season's poor bowl showing.

Notre Dame/Hawaii ND has to be disappointed in their season. But also motivated to stop their bowl losing streak. Hawaii playing at home.

FAU/CMU Both were preseason faves in their respective conferences. So it's probably a wash.

West Virginia/UNC WV fell way short of their preseason goal. UNC's first bowl game in 4 years.

Wisconsin/FSU Neither achieved their goals.

Miami/CAL Miami just happy to be in a bowl. CAL underachieved?

NIU/La Tech Both just happy to be in a bowl

NCST/Rutgers NCST just happy to be in a bowl after missing last season and starting slow. Rutgers didn't achieve their goals but played well down the stretch. Tough call. Tom O'Brien coached teams have done well in their bowl games. Both teams red hot on offense.

Northwestern/Missouri NW should be pumped since nobody is giving them a prayer to beat Mizzou. Mizzou fell way short of their BCS goal.

Nevada/Maryland Nevada probably the more motivated team after getting beat in their bowl game last year. Maryland coming up short in the ACC.

WMU/Rice Rice is definitely motivated to win this game and get to 10 wins for only the second time in their school's history. Plus they haven't won a bowl game since I've been alive. And I'm older than dirt. But not as old as CoachLT...LOL

Oregon/OSU Both teams should be very motivated to play each other. OSU's DC leaving.

Houston/Air Force Houston looking for revenge from early season loss to AF in which the game was moved because of the hurricane that hit the Houston area.

Pitt/Oregon St. Pitt could possibly be a little disappointed by not making it to a BCS game. But OSU is probably devastated by not making it to the Rose Bowl. I would say Pitt has the motivational edge.

BC/Vandy Vandy should be motivated because this is their first bowl game in 26 years. But BC probably very motivated to extend their 8 game winning streak.

Minnesota/Kansas Minny probably has the motivational edge. But may be just happy to be there. Kansas taking a big step back from last season's BCS game.

LSU/GT GT should have the motivational and coaching edge. LSU going from the penthouse to the outhouse.

Iowa/South Carolina I htink Iowa probably has a huge motivational edge after missing out on a bowl last year. I think SC had bigger plans for this year. Plus their last two blowout losses doesn't help.

Clemson/Nebraska Same thing for Clemson as SC. A BIG disappointment this season, going up against a Husker team who missed a bowl last year. I'm also more apt to take first year coach Pelini over an interim coach.

MSU/Georgia Have to think Georgia's season was a huge disappointment.

Penn State/USC Both missed out on their BCS title dreams. The west coast angle always favors USC in these games.

VT/Cincy Both teams should be motivated. Cincy probably happy and shocked to be there.

Ole Miss/Texas Tech Probably a huge motivational edge for Ole Miss here after TT's BCS hopes went up like a nuclear bomb in Norman.

ECU/Kentucky ECU was thinking big earlier in the year. But I'm not sure there is really a motivational edge here.

Utah/Bama Utah HUGE after Bama blew their chance at a NC. Plus nobody is giving Utah a prayer.

Buffalo/UCONN Buffalo should definitely be motivated. But UCONN probably is too after losing their bowl game last season. Plus the Huskies have more bowl experience. Turner Gill possibly leaving?

Texas/Ohio State Will Texas be disappointed or pissed after missing out on a BCS title game? Like the Sooners, OSU would like to silence the critics. Possible revenge game for Colt McCoy after losing to OSU as a freshman starter. Tough motivational call.

Ball State/Tulsa Both have to be disappointed after losing their conference title games. But who will be the most devastated?

OU/FLorida OU should definitely be motivated after their last few BCS performances, and the fact that not many of the "experts" are giving them a chance. Florida will be pretty much the home team.

That's it? That's all you got?

Thanks Greek, you da man.

[jmarty6969]

was wondering does the hawii fix make notre dame a no play lol

[SPREADWINNA]

Keep this thread alive

[Pitt37]

Thanks Greek!