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The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS
The NASDAQ Composite index closed lower on Thursday due to
weakness in communication, computer chip and software
stocks. Today's close below last week's low crossing at
2049.76 opens the door for additional weakness near-term.
Closes above the 20-day moving average and then last week's
high crossing at 2091.22 are needed to confirm that the
decline off January's high has come to an end. Stochastics
and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 2003 uptrend
line crossing near 2020 would open the door for a test of
the 25% retracement level of the 2003-04-rally crossing at
1941.29 later this winter.
The March S&P 500 index closed lower due to profit taking as
it consolidates below January's high crossing at 1155 on
Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening on Friday. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1141.04 would signal that this week's
high marked a double top with January's high. Stochastics
and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral hinting
that a double top with January's high might be forming.
Multiple closes above January's high at 1155 are needed to
open the door for a possible test of weekly resistance
crossing at 1170.75 later this winter.
The Dow posted a downside reversal with a lower close on
Thursday due to profit taking after spiking to a new high
for the year. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Friday. Closes below the 40-day
moving average crossing at 10,532 would increase the odds
that a double top with January's high has been posted.
Closes above today's high at 10,753 would open the door for
a possible test of the February 2001 high crossing at 11,035
later this year. Momentum indicators are bullish but
diverging, which should be noted by bulls as a potential
warning of a near-term top.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes
INTEREST RATES
March bond closed slightly higher on Wednesday despite a
stronger equity market and a stronger-than-forecasted report
on jobless claims. Early weakness tested the 10-day moving
average crossing at 112-13 before a short covering rebound
into the close pulled bonds into positive territory. The
upper-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer
opening on Friday. If March extends this month's rally, a
test of January's high crossing at 113-22 is possible later
this week. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
Closes below last week's low crossing at 111-19 would
increase the odds that a double top with January's high has
been posted.
The CRB INDEX
The CRB index closed higher on Thursday due to strength in
grains, some livestock, copper, fiber and some energy
markets. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
firmer opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If the CRB index extends this month's
rebound, the 75% retracement level of the January-February
decline crossing at 268.21 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 10-day moving average crossing at 263.51 would
temper the friendly outlook in the market.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest
ENERGY MARKETS
Energy prices were mixed on Thursday following the release
of this week's inventory reports. The API inventory report
showed that crude oil stocks rose by 4.66 million barrels
last week. Heating oil stocks declined by 4.718 million
barrels and unleaded gasoline stocks declined by 1.669
million barrels.
March crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extended
this week's breakout above January's high despite today's
bearish inventory report. This week's breakout above
January's high has set the stage for a test of weekly
resistance crossing at 36.37 possibly on Friday. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on
Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are still possible. Closes below
the 40-day moving average crossing at 33.72 would signal
that a top has been posted.
March heating oil closed lower on Thursday despite today's
friendly inventory report and closed below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 92.50. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday although I
would not be surprised to see a steady to firmer close
tomorrow. If March extends this month's rebound, a test of the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline
crossing at 97.62 is possible later this winter. Stochastics
and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day
moving average crossing at 91.38 would temper the friendly
outlook in the market.
March unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday as it
consolidates above January's high crossing at 104.10. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer
opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If March extends this week's breakout above January's
high, weekly resistance crossing at 109.60 is the next
upside target later this winter. Initial support begins with
the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.64.
March Henry Hub natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it
consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at
5.35. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening on Friday. If the decline off January's high
continues, a test of November's low at 4.79 is possible
later this winter. Closes above last week's high crossing at
5.63 are needed to temper the bearish outlook in the market.
Stochastics and the RSI turned bearish with today's decline
hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy
CURRENCY FUTURES | REAL TIME FOREX
The March Dollar closed slightly higher on Thursday due to
spillover buying from Wednesday's rally, which was triggered
by buying from the Bank of Japan. Today's rally led to a
close above initial resistance marked by the 10-day moving
average crossing at 85.92. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening on Friday. Closes above the 40-
day moving average crossing at 86.71 would temper the near-
term bearish outlook in the market. Multiple closes below
January's low crossing at 85.10 would open the door for a
possible test of weekly support crossing at 83.87 later this
winter. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning
bullish hinting that a double bottom with January's low
might be in or is near.
The March Euro closed slightly lower on Thursday confirming
yesterday's key reversal down. However, a short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's loss and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on
Friday. Closes below the 40-day moving average crossing at
125.904 would increase the odds that Wednesday's high marked
a double top with January's high. Multiple closes above
January's high crossing at 128.75 would open the door for a
larger-degree rally into the last half of February.
Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turned bearish
signaling that a double top with January's high might have
been posted with Wednesday's high.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday confirming
yesterday's key reversal down. However, a short covering
bounce tempered some of today's loss and the mid-range close
sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at .8047 would increase
the odds that a double top with January's high has been
posted. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and have
turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it
extended yesterday's loss and breakout below the 10-day
moving average crossing at .7543. Today's mid-range close
sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Closes below
last week's low crossing at .7477 would confirm an end to
this month's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI
are turning neutral hinting that this month's rebound is
coming to an end. Closes above last Friday's high at .7645
are needed to renew this month's rally and could lead to a
test of the 62% retracement level of January's decline
crossing at .7698.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday as it
extended yesterday's breakout below the previous reaction
low crossing at .9373 and this winter's uptrend line.
Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Friday although I would not be surprised to see a
short covering rebound due to short covering ahead of the
weekend. However, this week's breakout below trendline
support has opened the door for a test of January's low
crossing at .9255 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI
are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?e=FOREX
PRECIOUS AND NON-FERROUS METALS
April gold closed lower on Thursday due to strength in the
U.S. Dollar as it consolidates below the 50% retracement
level of this year's decline crossing at 413.70 but above
the 20-day moving average. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening on Friday. Closes below the 20-
day moving average crossing at 407.50 would confirm that
this month's rebound has come to an end. Stochastics and the
RSI are turning neutral hinting that this month's rebound
might be coming to an end. If the rebound off last week's
low resumes, the 62% retracement level of January's decline
crossing at 418.10 is the next upside target later this
month.
March silver closed lower on Thursday confirming yesterday's
downside reversal. However, a short covering rebound ahead of the close tempered some of today's losses and the mid-
range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral
hinting that a double top with January's high might have
been posted with Wednesday's high. Closes below the 10-day
moving average crossing at 6.565 would increase the odds
that a double top with January's high has been posted.
Closes above January's high crossing at 6.795 would open the
door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at
7.50 later this winter.
March copper closed above monthly resistance crossing at
132.47 on Thursday and the high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to firmer opening on Friday. Multiple closes
above monthly resistance crossing at 132.47 would open the
door for a possible test of the 1990 high crossing at 138.40
later this winter. The daily ADX (a trend-following
indicator) is bullish and rising signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-
day moving average crossing at 125.06 would signal that a
short-term top has likely been posted.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
FOOD & FIBER
March coffee closed higher on Thursday due to short covering
as it consolidated some of Wednesday's low but remains below
the 40-day moving average crossing at 71.18. If the decline
continues, a test of fib support crossing at .6712 is
possible later this month. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the
RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible into the last half of February.
March cocoa gapped below minor support crossing at 1504 and
closed sharply lower on Thursday thereby renewing its
decline off January's high. Today's low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Today's close
below 1504 has opened the door for a test of this year's low
crossing at 1456 possibly on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI
are diverging but turned bearish signaling that additional
weakness is possible near-term.
March sugar closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday
and filled Tuesday's gap at 550. The low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. However,
stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that a
low might be in or is near. Closes above Tuesday's high
crossing at 571 are needed to confirm that a low has been
posted. If the decline off December's high resumes, a test
of monthly support crossing at 497 is possible later this
year.
March cotton closed higher on Thursday due to short covering
and above broken support crossing at 67.09 cents. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on
Friday. However, closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 69.39 cents are needed to confirm that a low has
been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are
turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near.
If the decline off January's high resumes, September 11 gap
crossing at 64.95 and then the 75% retracement level of the
July-October rally crossing at 62.93 are potential targets
later this winter.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food
GRAINS & SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March corn closed higher on Thursday erasing all of
Wednesday's losses. Today's rally was support by strength in
wheat and soybeans, which led to a close above resistance
marked by the 75% retracement level of the 2002-03 crossing
at 2.82. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
firmer opening on Friday. Closes above last Tuesday's high
crossing at 2.86 3/4 would open the door for a test of
weekly resistance crossing at 3.01 1/2 later this winter.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.77 3/4
would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted
while opening the door for a possible test of the late-
January low crossing at 2.68 1/4 later this winter.
Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but resumed their
bearish modes with today's rally hinting that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term.
March wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on
Thursday due to short covering and ideas that China may
announce a large purchase of U.S. on Friday. Technically,
today's rebound did nothing more than test broken support
crossing at 3.73. Although the high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to firmer opening on Friday, the door
remains open for a test of December's low crossing at 3.58
later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. It would take closes above the 40-day moving average
crossing at 3.83 1/4 to temper the bearish outlook in the
crossing at 3.83 1/4 to temper the bearish outlook in the
market.
March Kansas City Wheat closed higher due to short covering
on Thursday as it rebounds off the previous reaction low
crossing at 3.77. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to firmer opening on Friday although it will take
closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.87 to
temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Multiple
closes below 3.77 would opened the door for a possible test
of December's low crossing at 3.66 later this month.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans soared to a new contract high on Thursday due
to weather problems in Brazil and Argentina, a strike at a
Brazilian port, declining production forecast for Brazil's
soybean crop and talk of restricting soybean meal and
soybean imports from South American due to Asian rust
problems. Today's rally led to a close above weekly
resistance crossing at 8.62 1/2 and the high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Friday. If
March extends this winter's rally, monthly resistance marked
by the 1997 high crossing at 9.03 1/2 is the next upside
target later this winter. The daily ADX (a trend-following
indicator) is entering a bullish mode with today's rally
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at
8.42 3/4 would increase the odds that a top has been posted.
March soybean meal closed sharply higher on Thursday and is
challenging the contract high crossing at 268.80. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on
Friday. Closes above January's high crossing at 268.80 would
renew this winter's rally while opening the door for a test
of the September 1997 high crossing at 284 then the May 1997
high at 308.50 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI
are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Initial support begins with the 20-day
moving average crossing at 254.40.
March soybean oil closed sharply higher on Thursday
following the release of lower soybean production estimates
for Brazil's soybean crop and posted a new contract high. If
March extends this winter's rally, a test of the 1988 high
crossing at 33.70 is possible later this winter. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on
Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but resumed
their bullish modes with today's rally signaling that
additional short-term gains are possible. Closes below the
10-day moving average crossing at 31.59 could lead to a test
of broken support marked by the May 1994 high crossing at
30.82.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains
LIVESTOCK and MEATS
April hogs closed higher on Thursday and above the 10-day
moving average crossing at 59.51 thereby tempering the near-
term bearish outlook in the market. The upper-range close
sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Friday. If
April resumes last week's decline, a test of the 50%
retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at
57.55 is possible later this month. Stochastics and the RSI
remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible into the last half of February.
March bellies closed sharply higher on Thursday as it
extended its rebound off last week's low. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on
Friday. Closes above last week's high crossing at 96.60
would resume this month's rally while opening the door for a
test of weekly resistance crossing at 99.20 later this
winter. Closes below last Wednesday's low at 92.00 would
confirm that a top has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI
are overbought but are turning bullish again hinting that
additional short-term gains are possible.
April cattle closed slightly lower on Thursday as it
consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing at
73.23. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady
opening on Friday. If April extends its decline off
January's high, fib support crossing at 70.75 is the next
downside target. Closes above last week's high crossing at
73.90 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the
market. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
March Feeder cattle closed lower due to profit taking on
Thursday as traders begin to position themselves ahead of
tomorrow's monthly cattle-on-feed report. If March extends
this week's rebound, a test of January's high crossing at
86.40 is the next upside target. Stochastics and the RSI are
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Today's low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening on Friday as additional profit
taking ahead of the cattle-on-feed report is possible.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
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__________________________________________________ __________________________
E X T R E M E F U T U R E S
__________________________________________________ __________________________
Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/
WINNERS
PNJ4 Propane Apr 2004 0.5550 0.0300 +5.48
DBH4 Butter Mar 2004 194.000 10.000 +5.43
BOK4 Soybean Oil May 2004 32.44 1.06 +3.38
SMH4 Soybean Meal Mar 2004 267.7 8.7 +3.36
DAH4 BFP Milk Mar 2004 13.43 0.43 +3.31
MWH4 Hard Red Spring Wheat Mar 2004 423 3/4 12 1/2 +3.04
YKH4 Mini Soybeans Mar 2004 880 25 1/2 +2.98
SH4 Soybeans Mar 2004 880 25 1/2 +2.98
CTZ4 Cotton Dec 2004 66.88 1.90 +2.92
LBH4 Random Length Lumber Mar 2004 380.50 10.00 +2.70
LOSERS
CCN4 Cocoa Jul 2004 1467 -61 -3.99
PAU4 Palladium Sep 2004 246.85 -7.40 -2.94
NGH4 Henry Hub Natural Gas Mar 2004 5.235 -0.141 -2.63
FFY Federal Funds 30day Cash 1.0000 -0.0200 -1.96
RLH4 Russell 2000 Index Mar 2004 580.75 -10.25 -1.73
NDH4 NASDAQ 100 Index Mar 2004 1488.00 -23.00 -1.52
HOH4 Heating Oil Mar 2004 0.9244 -0.0124 -1.33
SBN4 Sugar #11 World Jul 2004 5.83 -0.07 -1.18
FCK4 Feeder Cattle May 2004 85.475 -0.850 -0.98
VGY Value Line Index - Cash Geometric Cash 378.01 -3.66 -0.96
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__________________________________________________ __________________________
E X T R E M E S T O C K S
__________________________________________________ __________________________
Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/
WINNERS
DHC Danielson Holding 9.5000 1.8900 +24.84
MBLAP Natl Mercantile Bancorp 6.50% 26.0000 4.0000 +18.18
CYBE CyberOptics Corp 16.1300 2.3400 +16.97
NGPS NovAtel Inc 17.9500 2.5710 +16.63
OVTI OmniVision Technologies 29.4700 3.8400 +14.98
KG King Pharmaceuticals 19.2500 2.4000 +14.23
MDTL Medis Technologies 16.8000 2.0400 +13.64
ELN Elan Corp ADS 13.3500 1.5500 +13.14
ABL Amer Biltrite 11.0500 1.2700 +12.99
CHB Champion Enterprises 10.3000 1.1400 +12.53
LOSERS
SOBI Sobieski Bancorp 8.8400 -3.4600 -28.13
CAMT Camtek Ltd 6.1590 -1.0910 -15.05
SP Specialty Laboratories 12.4000 -2.1700 -14.89
TASRW TASER International Wrrt 147.8700 -22.3500 -13.24
ACAI Atlantic Coast Airlines Hldgs 7.6300 -1.1500 -13.10
PKSI Primus Knowledge Solutions 5.0100 -0.7400 -12.87
NTST Netsmart Tech 15.8000 -2.2990 -12.70
SSYS Stratasys Inc 18.4500 -2.6600 -12.63
TASR TASER International 51.9670 -7.4330 -12.51
NTCT NetScout Systems 7.0800 -1.0100 -12.42
__________________________________________________ ___________________
The NASDAQ Composite index closed lower on Thursday due to
weakness in communication, computer chip and software
stocks. Today's close below last week's low crossing at
2049.76 opens the door for additional weakness near-term.
Closes above the 20-day moving average and then last week's
high crossing at 2091.22 are needed to confirm that the
decline off January's high has come to an end. Stochastics
and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 2003 uptrend
line crossing near 2020 would open the door for a test of
the 25% retracement level of the 2003-04-rally crossing at
1941.29 later this winter.
The March S&P 500 index closed lower due to profit taking as
it consolidates below January's high crossing at 1155 on
Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening on Friday. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1141.04 would signal that this week's
high marked a double top with January's high. Stochastics
and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral hinting
that a double top with January's high might be forming.
Multiple closes above January's high at 1155 are needed to
open the door for a possible test of weekly resistance
crossing at 1170.75 later this winter.
The Dow posted a downside reversal with a lower close on
Thursday due to profit taking after spiking to a new high
for the year. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Friday. Closes below the 40-day
moving average crossing at 10,532 would increase the odds
that a double top with January's high has been posted.
Closes above today's high at 10,753 would open the door for
a possible test of the February 2001 high crossing at 11,035
later this year. Momentum indicators are bullish but
diverging, which should be noted by bulls as a potential
warning of a near-term top.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes
INTEREST RATES
March bond closed slightly higher on Wednesday despite a
stronger equity market and a stronger-than-forecasted report
on jobless claims. Early weakness tested the 10-day moving
average crossing at 112-13 before a short covering rebound
into the close pulled bonds into positive territory. The
upper-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer
opening on Friday. If March extends this month's rally, a
test of January's high crossing at 113-22 is possible later
this week. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
Closes below last week's low crossing at 111-19 would
increase the odds that a double top with January's high has
been posted.
The CRB INDEX
The CRB index closed higher on Thursday due to strength in
grains, some livestock, copper, fiber and some energy
markets. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
firmer opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If the CRB index extends this month's
rebound, the 75% retracement level of the January-February
decline crossing at 268.21 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 10-day moving average crossing at 263.51 would
temper the friendly outlook in the market.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest
ENERGY MARKETS
Energy prices were mixed on Thursday following the release
of this week's inventory reports. The API inventory report
showed that crude oil stocks rose by 4.66 million barrels
last week. Heating oil stocks declined by 4.718 million
barrels and unleaded gasoline stocks declined by 1.669
million barrels.
March crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extended
this week's breakout above January's high despite today's
bearish inventory report. This week's breakout above
January's high has set the stage for a test of weekly
resistance crossing at 36.37 possibly on Friday. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on
Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are still possible. Closes below
the 40-day moving average crossing at 33.72 would signal
that a top has been posted.
March heating oil closed lower on Thursday despite today's
friendly inventory report and closed below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 92.50. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday although I
would not be surprised to see a steady to firmer close
tomorrow. If March extends this month's rebound, a test of the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline
crossing at 97.62 is possible later this winter. Stochastics
and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day
moving average crossing at 91.38 would temper the friendly
outlook in the market.
March unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday as it
consolidates above January's high crossing at 104.10. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer
opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If March extends this week's breakout above January's
high, weekly resistance crossing at 109.60 is the next
upside target later this winter. Initial support begins with
the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.64.
March Henry Hub natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it
consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at
5.35. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening on Friday. If the decline off January's high
continues, a test of November's low at 4.79 is possible
later this winter. Closes above last week's high crossing at
5.63 are needed to temper the bearish outlook in the market.
Stochastics and the RSI turned bearish with today's decline
hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy
CURRENCY FUTURES | REAL TIME FOREX
The March Dollar closed slightly higher on Thursday due to
spillover buying from Wednesday's rally, which was triggered
by buying from the Bank of Japan. Today's rally led to a
close above initial resistance marked by the 10-day moving
average crossing at 85.92. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening on Friday. Closes above the 40-
day moving average crossing at 86.71 would temper the near-
term bearish outlook in the market. Multiple closes below
January's low crossing at 85.10 would open the door for a
possible test of weekly support crossing at 83.87 later this
winter. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning
bullish hinting that a double bottom with January's low
might be in or is near.
The March Euro closed slightly lower on Thursday confirming
yesterday's key reversal down. However, a short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's loss and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on
Friday. Closes below the 40-day moving average crossing at
125.904 would increase the odds that Wednesday's high marked
a double top with January's high. Multiple closes above
January's high crossing at 128.75 would open the door for a
larger-degree rally into the last half of February.
Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turned bearish
signaling that a double top with January's high might have
been posted with Wednesday's high.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday confirming
yesterday's key reversal down. However, a short covering
bounce tempered some of today's loss and the mid-range close
sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at .8047 would increase
the odds that a double top with January's high has been
posted. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and have
turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it
extended yesterday's loss and breakout below the 10-day
moving average crossing at .7543. Today's mid-range close
sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Closes below
last week's low crossing at .7477 would confirm an end to
this month's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI
are turning neutral hinting that this month's rebound is
coming to an end. Closes above last Friday's high at .7645
are needed to renew this month's rally and could lead to a
test of the 62% retracement level of January's decline
crossing at .7698.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday as it
extended yesterday's breakout below the previous reaction
low crossing at .9373 and this winter's uptrend line.
Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Friday although I would not be surprised to see a
short covering rebound due to short covering ahead of the
weekend. However, this week's breakout below trendline
support has opened the door for a test of January's low
crossing at .9255 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI
are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?e=FOREX
PRECIOUS AND NON-FERROUS METALS
April gold closed lower on Thursday due to strength in the
U.S. Dollar as it consolidates below the 50% retracement
level of this year's decline crossing at 413.70 but above
the 20-day moving average. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening on Friday. Closes below the 20-
day moving average crossing at 407.50 would confirm that
this month's rebound has come to an end. Stochastics and the
RSI are turning neutral hinting that this month's rebound
might be coming to an end. If the rebound off last week's
low resumes, the 62% retracement level of January's decline
crossing at 418.10 is the next upside target later this
month.
March silver closed lower on Thursday confirming yesterday's
downside reversal. However, a short covering rebound ahead of the close tempered some of today's losses and the mid-
range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral
hinting that a double top with January's high might have
been posted with Wednesday's high. Closes below the 10-day
moving average crossing at 6.565 would increase the odds
that a double top with January's high has been posted.
Closes above January's high crossing at 6.795 would open the
door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at
7.50 later this winter.
March copper closed above monthly resistance crossing at
132.47 on Thursday and the high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to firmer opening on Friday. Multiple closes
above monthly resistance crossing at 132.47 would open the
door for a possible test of the 1990 high crossing at 138.40
later this winter. The daily ADX (a trend-following
indicator) is bullish and rising signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-
day moving average crossing at 125.06 would signal that a
short-term top has likely been posted.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
FOOD & FIBER
March coffee closed higher on Thursday due to short covering
as it consolidated some of Wednesday's low but remains below
the 40-day moving average crossing at 71.18. If the decline
continues, a test of fib support crossing at .6712 is
possible later this month. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the
RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible into the last half of February.
March cocoa gapped below minor support crossing at 1504 and
closed sharply lower on Thursday thereby renewing its
decline off January's high. Today's low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Today's close
below 1504 has opened the door for a test of this year's low
crossing at 1456 possibly on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI
are diverging but turned bearish signaling that additional
weakness is possible near-term.
March sugar closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday
and filled Tuesday's gap at 550. The low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. However,
stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that a
low might be in or is near. Closes above Tuesday's high
crossing at 571 are needed to confirm that a low has been
posted. If the decline off December's high resumes, a test
of monthly support crossing at 497 is possible later this
year.
March cotton closed higher on Thursday due to short covering
and above broken support crossing at 67.09 cents. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on
Friday. However, closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 69.39 cents are needed to confirm that a low has
been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are
turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near.
If the decline off January's high resumes, September 11 gap
crossing at 64.95 and then the 75% retracement level of the
July-October rally crossing at 62.93 are potential targets
later this winter.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food
GRAINS & SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March corn closed higher on Thursday erasing all of
Wednesday's losses. Today's rally was support by strength in
wheat and soybeans, which led to a close above resistance
marked by the 75% retracement level of the 2002-03 crossing
at 2.82. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
firmer opening on Friday. Closes above last Tuesday's high
crossing at 2.86 3/4 would open the door for a test of
weekly resistance crossing at 3.01 1/2 later this winter.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.77 3/4
would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted
while opening the door for a possible test of the late-
January low crossing at 2.68 1/4 later this winter.
Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but resumed their
bearish modes with today's rally hinting that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term.
March wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on
Thursday due to short covering and ideas that China may
announce a large purchase of U.S. on Friday. Technically,
today's rebound did nothing more than test broken support
crossing at 3.73. Although the high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to firmer opening on Friday, the door
remains open for a test of December's low crossing at 3.58
later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. It would take closes above the 40-day moving average
crossing at 3.83 1/4 to temper the bearish outlook in the
crossing at 3.83 1/4 to temper the bearish outlook in the
market.
March Kansas City Wheat closed higher due to short covering
on Thursday as it rebounds off the previous reaction low
crossing at 3.77. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to firmer opening on Friday although it will take
closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.87 to
temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Multiple
closes below 3.77 would opened the door for a possible test
of December's low crossing at 3.66 later this month.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans soared to a new contract high on Thursday due
to weather problems in Brazil and Argentina, a strike at a
Brazilian port, declining production forecast for Brazil's
soybean crop and talk of restricting soybean meal and
soybean imports from South American due to Asian rust
problems. Today's rally led to a close above weekly
resistance crossing at 8.62 1/2 and the high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Friday. If
March extends this winter's rally, monthly resistance marked
by the 1997 high crossing at 9.03 1/2 is the next upside
target later this winter. The daily ADX (a trend-following
indicator) is entering a bullish mode with today's rally
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at
8.42 3/4 would increase the odds that a top has been posted.
March soybean meal closed sharply higher on Thursday and is
challenging the contract high crossing at 268.80. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on
Friday. Closes above January's high crossing at 268.80 would
renew this winter's rally while opening the door for a test
of the September 1997 high crossing at 284 then the May 1997
high at 308.50 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI
are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Initial support begins with the 20-day
moving average crossing at 254.40.
March soybean oil closed sharply higher on Thursday
following the release of lower soybean production estimates
for Brazil's soybean crop and posted a new contract high. If
March extends this winter's rally, a test of the 1988 high
crossing at 33.70 is possible later this winter. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on
Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but resumed
their bullish modes with today's rally signaling that
additional short-term gains are possible. Closes below the
10-day moving average crossing at 31.59 could lead to a test
of broken support marked by the May 1994 high crossing at
30.82.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains
LIVESTOCK and MEATS
April hogs closed higher on Thursday and above the 10-day
moving average crossing at 59.51 thereby tempering the near-
term bearish outlook in the market. The upper-range close
sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Friday. If
April resumes last week's decline, a test of the 50%
retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at
57.55 is possible later this month. Stochastics and the RSI
remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible into the last half of February.
March bellies closed sharply higher on Thursday as it
extended its rebound off last week's low. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on
Friday. Closes above last week's high crossing at 96.60
would resume this month's rally while opening the door for a
test of weekly resistance crossing at 99.20 later this
winter. Closes below last Wednesday's low at 92.00 would
confirm that a top has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI
are overbought but are turning bullish again hinting that
additional short-term gains are possible.
April cattle closed slightly lower on Thursday as it
consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing at
73.23. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady
opening on Friday. If April extends its decline off
January's high, fib support crossing at 70.75 is the next
downside target. Closes above last week's high crossing at
73.90 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the
market. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
March Feeder cattle closed lower due to profit taking on
Thursday as traders begin to position themselves ahead of
tomorrow's monthly cattle-on-feed report. If March extends
this week's rebound, a test of January's high crossing at
86.40 is the next upside target. Stochastics and the RSI are
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Today's low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening on Friday as additional profit
taking ahead of the cattle-on-feed report is possible.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
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E X T R E M E F U T U R E S
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Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
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WINNERS
PNJ4 Propane Apr 2004 0.5550 0.0300 +5.48
DBH4 Butter Mar 2004 194.000 10.000 +5.43
BOK4 Soybean Oil May 2004 32.44 1.06 +3.38
SMH4 Soybean Meal Mar 2004 267.7 8.7 +3.36
DAH4 BFP Milk Mar 2004 13.43 0.43 +3.31
MWH4 Hard Red Spring Wheat Mar 2004 423 3/4 12 1/2 +3.04
YKH4 Mini Soybeans Mar 2004 880 25 1/2 +2.98
SH4 Soybeans Mar 2004 880 25 1/2 +2.98
CTZ4 Cotton Dec 2004 66.88 1.90 +2.92
LBH4 Random Length Lumber Mar 2004 380.50 10.00 +2.70
LOSERS
CCN4 Cocoa Jul 2004 1467 -61 -3.99
PAU4 Palladium Sep 2004 246.85 -7.40 -2.94
NGH4 Henry Hub Natural Gas Mar 2004 5.235 -0.141 -2.63
FFY Federal Funds 30day Cash 1.0000 -0.0200 -1.96
RLH4 Russell 2000 Index Mar 2004 580.75 -10.25 -1.73
NDH4 NASDAQ 100 Index Mar 2004 1488.00 -23.00 -1.52
HOH4 Heating Oil Mar 2004 0.9244 -0.0124 -1.33
SBN4 Sugar #11 World Jul 2004 5.83 -0.07 -1.18
FCK4 Feeder Cattle May 2004 85.475 -0.850 -0.98
VGY Value Line Index - Cash Geometric Cash 378.01 -3.66 -0.96
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E X T R E M E S T O C K S
__________________________________________________ __________________________
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WINNERS
DHC Danielson Holding 9.5000 1.8900 +24.84
MBLAP Natl Mercantile Bancorp 6.50% 26.0000 4.0000 +18.18
CYBE CyberOptics Corp 16.1300 2.3400 +16.97
NGPS NovAtel Inc 17.9500 2.5710 +16.63
OVTI OmniVision Technologies 29.4700 3.8400 +14.98
KG King Pharmaceuticals 19.2500 2.4000 +14.23
MDTL Medis Technologies 16.8000 2.0400 +13.64
ELN Elan Corp ADS 13.3500 1.5500 +13.14
ABL Amer Biltrite 11.0500 1.2700 +12.99
CHB Champion Enterprises 10.3000 1.1400 +12.53
LOSERS
SOBI Sobieski Bancorp 8.8400 -3.4600 -28.13
CAMT Camtek Ltd 6.1590 -1.0910 -15.05
SP Specialty Laboratories 12.4000 -2.1700 -14.89
TASRW TASER International Wrrt 147.8700 -22.3500 -13.24
ACAI Atlantic Coast Airlines Hldgs 7.6300 -1.1500 -13.10
PKSI Primus Knowledge Solutions 5.0100 -0.7400 -12.87
NTST Netsmart Tech 15.8000 -2.2990 -12.70
SSYS Stratasys Inc 18.4500 -2.6600 -12.63
TASR TASER International 51.9670 -7.4330 -12.51
NTCT NetScout Systems 7.0800 -1.0100 -12.42
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