Tweet
The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS
The NASDAQ Composite index closed sharply lower on Tuesday
and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Wednesday. Closes below last week's low crossing
at 2108.45 would greatly increase the odds that a short-term
top has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought
and turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be
in or is near. If the NASDAQ Composite index extends this
winter's rally, a test of the May 2001 high crossing at
2328.05 is possible later this year.
The March S&P 500 index closed sharply lower on Tuesday and
the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Wednesday. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1128.34 would signal that a short-term top has
likely been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging
and turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in
or is near. If March extends this winter's rally, a test of
the 50% retracement level of the 2000-02 decline crossing at
1170.75 is possible later this year.
The Dow posted an inside day with a lower close due to
profit taking on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Closes below
this month's low crossing at 1036.70 would signal that a
short-term top has been posted. Today's decline led to a
close below broken resistance marked by the 75% retracement
level of the 2000-02 decline crossing at 10,675. If the Dow
extends this winter's rally, a test of the February 2001
high crossing at 1103.50 is possible later this year. The
Dow closed down 93 points at 10,609.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes
INTEREST RATES
March bond posted an inside day with a higher close on
Tuesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of its
losses of the past two days. Today's rebound was triggered
by an improvement in consumer confidence and position
squaring ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting, which began this
morning. Today's rebound led to a close above broken
resistance marked by December's high crossing at 111-11 and
the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer
opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term.
The CRB INDEX
The CRB index posted an inside day with a lower close on
Tuesday due to weakness in grains, copper, fiber and
energies. Today's decline extended the recent breakout below
the 10-day moving average crossing at 268.09 and the low-
range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Wednesday. Closes below the previous reaction low crossing
at 264.41 would confirm that a top has been posted.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and have turned
bearish signaling that a top is in or is near. If this
winter's rally resumes, a test of the 1988 high crossing at
272.19 is possible later this winter.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest
ENERGY MARKETS
The energy markets closed lower on Tuesday due to profit
taking triggered by better-than-expected news from Valero
Energy Corp. that its Texas City, Texas, coker unit received
swift repairs Monday without delaying production.
March crude oil posted an outside day down on Tuesday, which
led to a close below the 10-day moving average crossing at
34.27. Closes below last week's low crossing at 33.75 would
signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. Closes
above last Friday's high at 35.25 would set the stage for a
possible test of the 75% retracement level of the 2003
decline crossing at 36.46 on the weekly chart later this
winter. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are
turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in
or is near.
March heating oil closed lower due to profit taking on
Tuesday and below initial support marked by the 10-day
moving average crossing at 97.46. Today's mid-range close
sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.07 would
confirm that a top has been posted and would open the door
for a possible test of the 40-day moving average crossing at
91.77 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are
diverging and are turning bearish signaling that a short-
term top might be in or is near. If this winter's rally
continues, a test of the 62% retracement level of the 2003
decline on the weekly chart crossing at 106.70 is possible
later this winter.
March unleaded gas closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20-
day moving average crossing at 98.64. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.
Multiple closes below last week's low crossing at 98.50 are
needed to confirm that a top has been posted and would open
the door for a possible test of the 40-day moving average
crossing at 93.67 later this Winter. Stochastics and the RSI
are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or
is near. Close above last Friday's high at 102.80 would set
the stage for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing
at 105.68 later this winter.
March Henry Hub natural gas posted an inside day and closed
below the late-December low crossing at 5.70 on Tuesday as
it extended this month's decline. The low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.
Today's close below 5.70 opens the door for additional
weakness and could lead to a test of November's high
crossing at 5.27 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI
are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy
CURRENCY FUTURES | REAL TIME FOREX
The March Dollar posted a key reversal down on Tuesday
ending a two-day rebound and closed below the 10-day moving
average at 86.76. Today's low-range close sets the stage for
a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Closes below last
week's low at 85.76 would negate the idea that this low
marked the b-wave of an a-b-c correction, which began
earlier this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near-
term. Closes above the a-wave high crossing at 88.17 would
open the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement
level of the Sept.-Jan. decline crossing at 89.86 later this
winter.
The March Euro posted a key reversal up on Tuesday and
closed above the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.088.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer
opening on Wednesday. Closes above last week's high crossing
at 1275.80 would resume the rebound off last week's low and
could lead to a test of this month's high crossing at
1287.50 later this winter. Closes below last Tuesday's low
at 123.27 would open the door for a test of the 38%
retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at
122.882 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are
bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-
term.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Tuesday due to short
covering as it consolidated some of its recent losses. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer
opening on Wednesday. Closes above last week's high crossing
at .8156 or below last week's low crossing at .7867 are
needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Closes
below .7867 would renew this month's decline and could lead
to a test of fib support crossing at .7761 later this
winter. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher due to short
covering on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 62%
retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at
.7589. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
firmer opening on Wednesday. If this month's decline
continues the 75% retracement level crossing at .7525 is the
next downside target. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
.7718 are needed to temper the bearish outlook in the
market.
The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Tuesday and spiked
to a new contract at .9497. Today's high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Wednesday.
Multiple closes above .9475 would open the door for a
possible test of long-term resistance crossing at .9716
later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?e=FOREX
PRECIOUS AND NON-FERROUS METALS
February gold closed higher due to weakness in the U.S.
Dollar on Tuesday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Wednesday. Closes below last week's low crossing at 405.70 would open the door for a
possible test of the 38% retracement level of the July-
January rally crossing at 398.10 later this winter.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and turning neutral
hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 416.40 are needed to
temper the bearish outlook in the market.
March silver closed sharply higher on Tuesday and closed
above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.364. Today's
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer
opening on Wednesday. Today's rally turned stochastics and
the RSI bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible into early-February. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 6.317 would open the door for a possible
test of the 40-day moving average crossing at 5.958 later
this winter.
March copper closed lower due to light profit taking on
Tuesday but remains above the previous reaction high
crossing at 111.00. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Wednesday. If March extends this
winter's rally, a test of the 62% retracement level of the
1989-2001 decline crossing at 118.69 is possible later this
winter. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is
bullish and rising signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving
average crossing at 110.96 would be the first sign of
trouble for bulls.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
FOOD & FIBER
March coffee close higher on Tuesday as it extended Monday's
breakout above resistance marked by last September's high
crossing at 75.00. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to firmer opening on Wednesday. If March extends this
winter's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 1999-2001
decline on the weekly chart crossing at 81.04 is the next
upside target later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain bullish hinting that additional gains
are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving
average crossing at 73.44 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted.
March cocoa posted an inside day with a lower close on
Tuesday as it consolidates below broken support marked by
the 40-day moving average crossing at 1594. The mid-range
close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday.
Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 1580 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening
the door for a larger-degree decline into the end of
January. Stochastics and the RSI have turning bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term.
March sugar closed lower on Tuesday however, a late-session
short covering bounce tempered early session losses. March
remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 581 and
this winter's downtrend line. Closes above these resistance
levels are needed to confirm a bottom and signal a short-
term trend change has taken place. Closes below this month's
low at 563 would renew the decline off December's high and
set the stage for a test of long-term support crossing at
551 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
neutral hinting that a short-term trend change is taking
place.
March cotton closed sharply lower on Tuesday below the 20-
day moving average crossing at 74.84. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.
Closes below this month's low at 72.30 would confirm a top
while opening the door for a larger-degree setback into
early-February. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought,
diverging and turned bearish signaling that a short-term top
has likely been posted.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food
GRAINS & SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March corn closed lower on Tuesday due to profit taking as
it consolidates below long-term resistance marked by the 75%
retracement level of the 2002-03 crossing at 2.82. If this
resistance level is cleared, the door would be open for a
possible test of the 2002 high crossing at 3.01 1/2 later
this winter. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is
bullish and rising signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving
average crossing at 2.74 would be a warning sign to bulls
that a short-term top might be in or is near.
March wheat posted an inside day and closed lower for the
sixth day in a row on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday although I
would not be surprised to see a short covering bounce
tomorrow. If March extends this month's decline, gap support
crossing at 3.77 3/4 is the next downside target.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above this
month's high crossing at 4.07 are needed to renew March's
rally off December's low and would set the stage for a
possible test of the contract high crossing at 4.21 1/2
later this winter.
March Kansas City Wheat closed fractionally lower on Tuesday
as it consolidates above gap support crossing at 3.87. The
mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on
Wednesday. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 3.87
could lead to a test of gap support crossing at 3.85 later
this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes
above the contract high crossing at 4.16 are needed to renew
last fall's rally.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans closed sharply lower on Tuesday due to profit
taking, which was triggered by disappointment over the new
FDA ban on meat and bone meal. The ban does not include
poultry and swine, which triggered fund and light commercial
selling. March's failure to extend yesterday's breakout
above monthly resistance crossing at 8.45 3/4 along with the
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
on Wednesday. Multiple closes above 8.45 3/4 could lead to
an eventual test of the 1997 high on the weekly March
soybean chart crossing at 8.62 later this winter. The daily
ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 8.21
would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.
March soybean meal closed sharply lower due to profit taking
triggered by disappointment over the latest FDA ruling on
the use of meat and bone meal in animal feed. Today's
setback led to a close below broken long-term resistance
crossing at 264.10 and tested initial support marked by the
10-day moving average crossing at 260.90. The low-range
close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Wednesday. Closes below the 10-day moving average would
temper the bullish outlook in the market. Multiple closes
above the August 1983 high crossing at 267 would open the
door for a possible test of monthly resistance crossing at
285.50 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a
short-term top might be in or is near.
March soybean oil closed lower due to profit taking on
Tuesday and below support marked by the 10-day moving
average crossing at 29.63. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. If March
resumes last week's rally, a test of the January 1994 high
crossing at 30.75 and possibly the May 1994 high crossing at
30.82 are possible later this winter. Closes below last
Wednesday's low crossing at 28.98 would open the door for a
test of gap support crossing at 28.56. Stochastics and the
RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains
LIVESTOCK and MEATS
February hogs closed higher on Tuesday confirming
yesterday's key reversal up. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Closes above last
week's high crossing at 56.55 would renew this month's rally
and could lead to a test of December's high crossing at
57.00 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are
diverging but remain bullish hinting that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 40-day
moving average crossing at 53.89 would confirm that last
week's high marked a double top.
February bellies closed higher on Monday thereby confirming
yesterday's key reversal up. A late-day sell off tempered
today's gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Closes above the 20-
day moving average crossing at 84.52 would signal that a low
has likely been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold
and are turning bullish signaling that a low is in or is
near. If February extends this month's decline, a test of
the 75% retracement level of the August-October rally
crossing at 80.41 is possible later this winter.
February cattle posted an inside day with a higher close due
to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of its
losses off last week's high, which tested the 50%
retracement level of December's decline crossing at 83.06.
The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on
Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish
hinting that the rebound off December's low might have come
to an end. Monday's close below last Tuesday's low at 79.30
has opened the door for a larger-degree setback into early-
February.
March Feeder cattle closed higher due to short covering on
Tuesday as it consolidated some of its recent losses off
last week's high. Despite today's rebound, March feeders
remain below broken support marked by the 10-day moving
average crossing at 84.32. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the
RSI are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top has
likely been posted. If March extends its decline off last
week's high, the reaction low crossing at 82.40 is the next
downside target.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
The NASDAQ Composite index closed sharply lower on Tuesday
and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Wednesday. Closes below last week's low crossing
at 2108.45 would greatly increase the odds that a short-term
top has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought
and turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be
in or is near. If the NASDAQ Composite index extends this
winter's rally, a test of the May 2001 high crossing at
2328.05 is possible later this year.
The March S&P 500 index closed sharply lower on Tuesday and
the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Wednesday. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1128.34 would signal that a short-term top has
likely been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging
and turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in
or is near. If March extends this winter's rally, a test of
the 50% retracement level of the 2000-02 decline crossing at
1170.75 is possible later this year.
The Dow posted an inside day with a lower close due to
profit taking on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Closes below
this month's low crossing at 1036.70 would signal that a
short-term top has been posted. Today's decline led to a
close below broken resistance marked by the 75% retracement
level of the 2000-02 decline crossing at 10,675. If the Dow
extends this winter's rally, a test of the February 2001
high crossing at 1103.50 is possible later this year. The
Dow closed down 93 points at 10,609.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes
INTEREST RATES
March bond posted an inside day with a higher close on
Tuesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of its
losses of the past two days. Today's rebound was triggered
by an improvement in consumer confidence and position
squaring ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting, which began this
morning. Today's rebound led to a close above broken
resistance marked by December's high crossing at 111-11 and
the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer
opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term.
The CRB INDEX
The CRB index posted an inside day with a lower close on
Tuesday due to weakness in grains, copper, fiber and
energies. Today's decline extended the recent breakout below
the 10-day moving average crossing at 268.09 and the low-
range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Wednesday. Closes below the previous reaction low crossing
at 264.41 would confirm that a top has been posted.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and have turned
bearish signaling that a top is in or is near. If this
winter's rally resumes, a test of the 1988 high crossing at
272.19 is possible later this winter.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest
ENERGY MARKETS
The energy markets closed lower on Tuesday due to profit
taking triggered by better-than-expected news from Valero
Energy Corp. that its Texas City, Texas, coker unit received
swift repairs Monday without delaying production.
March crude oil posted an outside day down on Tuesday, which
led to a close below the 10-day moving average crossing at
34.27. Closes below last week's low crossing at 33.75 would
signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. Closes
above last Friday's high at 35.25 would set the stage for a
possible test of the 75% retracement level of the 2003
decline crossing at 36.46 on the weekly chart later this
winter. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are
turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in
or is near.
March heating oil closed lower due to profit taking on
Tuesday and below initial support marked by the 10-day
moving average crossing at 97.46. Today's mid-range close
sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.07 would
confirm that a top has been posted and would open the door
for a possible test of the 40-day moving average crossing at
91.77 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are
diverging and are turning bearish signaling that a short-
term top might be in or is near. If this winter's rally
continues, a test of the 62% retracement level of the 2003
decline on the weekly chart crossing at 106.70 is possible
later this winter.
March unleaded gas closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20-
day moving average crossing at 98.64. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.
Multiple closes below last week's low crossing at 98.50 are
needed to confirm that a top has been posted and would open
the door for a possible test of the 40-day moving average
crossing at 93.67 later this Winter. Stochastics and the RSI
are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or
is near. Close above last Friday's high at 102.80 would set
the stage for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing
at 105.68 later this winter.
March Henry Hub natural gas posted an inside day and closed
below the late-December low crossing at 5.70 on Tuesday as
it extended this month's decline. The low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.
Today's close below 5.70 opens the door for additional
weakness and could lead to a test of November's high
crossing at 5.27 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI
are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy
CURRENCY FUTURES | REAL TIME FOREX
The March Dollar posted a key reversal down on Tuesday
ending a two-day rebound and closed below the 10-day moving
average at 86.76. Today's low-range close sets the stage for
a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Closes below last
week's low at 85.76 would negate the idea that this low
marked the b-wave of an a-b-c correction, which began
earlier this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near-
term. Closes above the a-wave high crossing at 88.17 would
open the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement
level of the Sept.-Jan. decline crossing at 89.86 later this
winter.
The March Euro posted a key reversal up on Tuesday and
closed above the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.088.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer
opening on Wednesday. Closes above last week's high crossing
at 1275.80 would resume the rebound off last week's low and
could lead to a test of this month's high crossing at
1287.50 later this winter. Closes below last Tuesday's low
at 123.27 would open the door for a test of the 38%
retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at
122.882 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are
bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-
term.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Tuesday due to short
covering as it consolidated some of its recent losses. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer
opening on Wednesday. Closes above last week's high crossing
at .8156 or below last week's low crossing at .7867 are
needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Closes
below .7867 would renew this month's decline and could lead
to a test of fib support crossing at .7761 later this
winter. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher due to short
covering on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 62%
retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at
.7589. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
firmer opening on Wednesday. If this month's decline
continues the 75% retracement level crossing at .7525 is the
next downside target. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
.7718 are needed to temper the bearish outlook in the
market.
The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Tuesday and spiked
to a new contract at .9497. Today's high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Wednesday.
Multiple closes above .9475 would open the door for a
possible test of long-term resistance crossing at .9716
later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?e=FOREX
PRECIOUS AND NON-FERROUS METALS
February gold closed higher due to weakness in the U.S.
Dollar on Tuesday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Wednesday. Closes below last week's low crossing at 405.70 would open the door for a
possible test of the 38% retracement level of the July-
January rally crossing at 398.10 later this winter.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and turning neutral
hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 416.40 are needed to
temper the bearish outlook in the market.
March silver closed sharply higher on Tuesday and closed
above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.364. Today's
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer
opening on Wednesday. Today's rally turned stochastics and
the RSI bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible into early-February. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 6.317 would open the door for a possible
test of the 40-day moving average crossing at 5.958 later
this winter.
March copper closed lower due to light profit taking on
Tuesday but remains above the previous reaction high
crossing at 111.00. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Wednesday. If March extends this
winter's rally, a test of the 62% retracement level of the
1989-2001 decline crossing at 118.69 is possible later this
winter. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is
bullish and rising signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving
average crossing at 110.96 would be the first sign of
trouble for bulls.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
FOOD & FIBER
March coffee close higher on Tuesday as it extended Monday's
breakout above resistance marked by last September's high
crossing at 75.00. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to firmer opening on Wednesday. If March extends this
winter's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 1999-2001
decline on the weekly chart crossing at 81.04 is the next
upside target later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain bullish hinting that additional gains
are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving
average crossing at 73.44 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted.
March cocoa posted an inside day with a lower close on
Tuesday as it consolidates below broken support marked by
the 40-day moving average crossing at 1594. The mid-range
close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday.
Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 1580 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening
the door for a larger-degree decline into the end of
January. Stochastics and the RSI have turning bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term.
March sugar closed lower on Tuesday however, a late-session
short covering bounce tempered early session losses. March
remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 581 and
this winter's downtrend line. Closes above these resistance
levels are needed to confirm a bottom and signal a short-
term trend change has taken place. Closes below this month's
low at 563 would renew the decline off December's high and
set the stage for a test of long-term support crossing at
551 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
neutral hinting that a short-term trend change is taking
place.
March cotton closed sharply lower on Tuesday below the 20-
day moving average crossing at 74.84. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.
Closes below this month's low at 72.30 would confirm a top
while opening the door for a larger-degree setback into
early-February. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought,
diverging and turned bearish signaling that a short-term top
has likely been posted.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food
GRAINS & SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March corn closed lower on Tuesday due to profit taking as
it consolidates below long-term resistance marked by the 75%
retracement level of the 2002-03 crossing at 2.82. If this
resistance level is cleared, the door would be open for a
possible test of the 2002 high crossing at 3.01 1/2 later
this winter. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is
bullish and rising signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving
average crossing at 2.74 would be a warning sign to bulls
that a short-term top might be in or is near.
March wheat posted an inside day and closed lower for the
sixth day in a row on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday although I
would not be surprised to see a short covering bounce
tomorrow. If March extends this month's decline, gap support
crossing at 3.77 3/4 is the next downside target.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above this
month's high crossing at 4.07 are needed to renew March's
rally off December's low and would set the stage for a
possible test of the contract high crossing at 4.21 1/2
later this winter.
March Kansas City Wheat closed fractionally lower on Tuesday
as it consolidates above gap support crossing at 3.87. The
mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on
Wednesday. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 3.87
could lead to a test of gap support crossing at 3.85 later
this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes
above the contract high crossing at 4.16 are needed to renew
last fall's rally.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans closed sharply lower on Tuesday due to profit
taking, which was triggered by disappointment over the new
FDA ban on meat and bone meal. The ban does not include
poultry and swine, which triggered fund and light commercial
selling. March's failure to extend yesterday's breakout
above monthly resistance crossing at 8.45 3/4 along with the
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
on Wednesday. Multiple closes above 8.45 3/4 could lead to
an eventual test of the 1997 high on the weekly March
soybean chart crossing at 8.62 later this winter. The daily
ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 8.21
would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.
March soybean meal closed sharply lower due to profit taking
triggered by disappointment over the latest FDA ruling on
the use of meat and bone meal in animal feed. Today's
setback led to a close below broken long-term resistance
crossing at 264.10 and tested initial support marked by the
10-day moving average crossing at 260.90. The low-range
close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Wednesday. Closes below the 10-day moving average would
temper the bullish outlook in the market. Multiple closes
above the August 1983 high crossing at 267 would open the
door for a possible test of monthly resistance crossing at
285.50 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a
short-term top might be in or is near.
March soybean oil closed lower due to profit taking on
Tuesday and below support marked by the 10-day moving
average crossing at 29.63. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. If March
resumes last week's rally, a test of the January 1994 high
crossing at 30.75 and possibly the May 1994 high crossing at
30.82 are possible later this winter. Closes below last
Wednesday's low crossing at 28.98 would open the door for a
test of gap support crossing at 28.56. Stochastics and the
RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains
LIVESTOCK and MEATS
February hogs closed higher on Tuesday confirming
yesterday's key reversal up. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Closes above last
week's high crossing at 56.55 would renew this month's rally
and could lead to a test of December's high crossing at
57.00 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are
diverging but remain bullish hinting that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 40-day
moving average crossing at 53.89 would confirm that last
week's high marked a double top.
February bellies closed higher on Monday thereby confirming
yesterday's key reversal up. A late-day sell off tempered
today's gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Closes above the 20-
day moving average crossing at 84.52 would signal that a low
has likely been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold
and are turning bullish signaling that a low is in or is
near. If February extends this month's decline, a test of
the 75% retracement level of the August-October rally
crossing at 80.41 is possible later this winter.
February cattle posted an inside day with a higher close due
to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of its
losses off last week's high, which tested the 50%
retracement level of December's decline crossing at 83.06.
The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on
Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish
hinting that the rebound off December's low might have come
to an end. Monday's close below last Tuesday's low at 79.30
has opened the door for a larger-degree setback into early-
February.
March Feeder cattle closed higher due to short covering on
Tuesday as it consolidated some of its recent losses off
last week's high. Despite today's rebound, March feeders
remain below broken support marked by the 10-day moving
average crossing at 84.32. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the
RSI are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top has
likely been posted. If March extends its decline off last
week's high, the reaction low crossing at 82.40 is the next
downside target.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock