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10/17/2005
October Record: 28-12-1
September Record Ended: 53-32-1
We went 2-2 Yesterday.
Today's Selection:
NFL-
St Louis vs. Indianapolis 9:00 p.m. ET 1 Units (Total)
MLB-
St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros 8:28 p.m. ET 4 Units (Side)
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Sundays 2-2 Recap
Game: Washington vs. Kansas City 1:00 p.m. ET
Sport: NFL - National Football League
Line: Kansas City -5.5 -110
Prediction: Kansas City -5.5 -110
Explanation: 3 Units
FINAL SCORE: Kansas City 28 Washington 21 WIN +($300) UNITS
We had a pretty darn good read on the Washington Redskins this year, winning with them in each of their last three games, including a pair of 5 Units. This is the week to jump off that train and bet against the Redskins – just when the public and the touts are jumping on Washington , recognizing their propensity for close games.
We been amazed at how much the squares around town here in Vegas seem to like Washington this week, and this line has been pounded down a full point and a half from the opener. The problem is that Washington is in a miserable spot right now. They played a nail-biter at Dallas , closing out with two long TD passes to earn the last minute victory. They played a nail-biter at home against Seattle the following week, surviving a field goal attempt off the uprights at the end of regulation to win in overtime. Last week, they didn’t survive the nail-biter, scoring a late touchdown but failing on the two point conversion attempt to lose at Denver by two points, still covering the pointspread.
Now they have to go out on the road again, to face the most potent offense that they’ve seen, in a very difficult venue. To make matters worse for the ‘Skins, Lavar Arrington has been creating quite the distraction in practice this week, whining to the media about his lack of playing time. This has all the makings of a game in which Washington is going to have a very hard time getting up for.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs are tanned, rested and ready following their bye week after their second half, turnover induced collapse against the Eagles two Sunday’s ago. KC has been very strong under Dick Vermeil in their first home game following a bye, with four wins in four tries, three of the wins coming by double digit margins of 12, 21 and 46 points.
Most importantly, the Chiefs have their MVP, totally under-represented by the linesmakers, back in the lineup this week as Left Tackle Willie Roaf returns following a three game absence. With Roaf back in the lineup, Tony Gonzalez has more room to roam the middle of the field on pass patterns, opening up the offense. No surprise here if this one gets ugly for the road underdog.
Play Kansas City -5.5
Predicted Final: Kansas City 27 Washington 17
Game: Houston vs. Seattle 8;00 p.m. ET
Sport: NFL - National Football League
Line: Houston +10 -120 (Buy 1/2 pts)
Prediction: Houston +10 -120 (Buy 1/2 pts)
Explanation: 2 Units
FINAL SCORE: Seattle 42 Houston 10 Loss -($240) UNITS
If you watched the game between Seattle and St Louis closely last week, you saw why we won’t lay points with Mike Holmgren and his staff anymore. The Seahawks had been getting pressure on Mark Bulger with their aggressive schemes all afternoon long, sacking Bulger four times and hurrying him repeatedly. They took a nine point lead halfway through the fourth quarter, meaning that the Rams needed two scored to win. Holmgren immediately changed the strategy that had been working so well, rushing only three or four while playing prevent defense. The Rams immediately marched down the field for a score, making it a one possession game. That ‘prevent defense’ strategy has killed Seattle bettors on more than a handful of occasions over the past two seasons, including the previous week at Washington where it cost them the outright win, thanks to three third and long completions in overtime from the Redskins. But Holmgren’s mismanagement gets even worse than that. Seattle got the ball back with less than four minutes on the clock and a six point lead. They had been running Shaun Alexander effectively all day: 25 rushes, 119 yards, two touchdowns. Everybody in the world knows that the most important thing to do in that situation is to run out the clock, on the ground. Instead, Holmgren, in his infinite wisdom, chose to pass on first down. And pass on second down. And pass on third down. Two incomplete passes, a sack, and a punt on a drive that took less than a minute, giving the ball back to St Louis with just under three minutes left on the clock. The Rams didn’t even burn a single timeout! Only a Rams fumble on the ensuing punt gave Seattle the win – otherwise St Louis would have marched down the field and scored the game winning touchdown. That’s what happens when you lay points with Mike Holmgren – you get poor decision making during crunch time.
Meanwhile, there’s a long standing system about betting 0-4 teams in the NFL, called the ‘Heinous Teams of the NFL’ strategy (no, we not making that up). These are teams that no public bettor wants to touch – they stink! The linesmakers know this, and adjust the pointspread dramatically to get some semblance of balance with their bets – you get extra value every time you back one of these teams. That’s why blindly betting these heinous teams produces a profit every year! Green Bay showed that an 0-4 team can be dangerous last week. Houston still plays pretty good defense, even though their offense is struggling, and they get a chance for redemption on national TV. No surprise whatsoever if the Texans keep this one very close throughout. Even if they don’t, the backdoor cover is always open against the Seahawks.
Play Houston +10
Predicted Final: Seattle 24 Houston 17
Game: Miami vs. Tampa Bay 1;00 p.m. ET
Sport: NFL - National Football League
Line: Miami +4 -110
Prediction: Miami +4 -110
Explanation: 3 Units
FINAL SCORE: Tampa Bay 27 Miami 13 Loss -($330) UNITS
Tampa Bay is a vastly overrated football team, despite their 4-1 record. It’s surely worth noting that the Bucs 2-3 mark against the spread speaks volumes about their capabilities in comparison to what the linesmakers are asking of them. Minnesota self destructed against the Bucs in Week 1, a game the Vikings easily could have won. The Bills self destructed in similar fashion in Week 2, young JP Losman struggling mightily in the first road start of his NFL career. The Bucs finished +3 in turnovers against the Packers at Green Bay in Week 3, but still couldn’t cover the pointspread as a road favorite, when 92% of NFL teams with a +3 turnover margin cover the pointspread. Two weeks, Jon Gruden’s club got a mystifying instant replay reversal to win the game against the hapless Lions, but still couldn’t cover the pointspread. Last week, they faced a 41 year old quarterback making his first start of the season and lost outright against a 1-3 foe.
Tampa Bay’s offense is a disaster area. Cadillac Williams is less than 100% if he plays at all, with a bad hamstring. He had no room to run whatsoever in his last start, against Detroit, because the Bucs porous offensive line couldn’t open any holes. Brian Griese is constantly under pressure thanks to that bad offensive line, and he’s not at his best (to put it mildly) when under pressure. The Bucs have averaged less than six yards per pass attempt in three of their last four games because Griese doesn’t have time to throw it downfield, settling for dink and dunk routes. Reggie Williams, last year’s sensation, has been a non-factor in 2005.
Miami is in the ideal spot to upset their neighbors to the north. The heat and humidity of Florida, such a huge advantage for Tampa in the early part of the season, has no effect on the Dolphins. Miami committed 18 penalties at Buffalo last week, and was -4 in the turnover battle. They still almost came back and won that game! After an error filled performance like that, we can expect Nick Saban to have his club ready here. We like what offensive coordinator Scott Linehan is doing with Gus Frerrote, challenging opposing defenses deep. Ronnie Brown has been finding room to run thanks to that strategy. We rate the Dolphins as the better team on both sides of the football, and this spot is excellent for the road underdog.
Play Miami +4
Predicted Final: Tampa Bay 17 Miami 14
Game: Carolina vs. Detroit 1:00 p.m. ET
Sport: NFL - National Football League
Line: Carolina +1 -110
Prediction: Carolina +1 -110
Explanation: 3 Units
FINAL SCORE: Carolina 21 Detroit 20 WIN +($300) UNITS
We backed the Panthers last week at Arizona, and were rewarded with a tight victory as Carolina rallied back in the fourth quarter thanks to a crucial defensive touchdown to win the game by four. This Panthers team certainly hasn’t looked like the Super Bowl contender they were supposed to be thusfar. That’s not necessarily a bad thing here – we’re getting no shortage of line value in against inferior opposition once again.
Detroit has two wins this season. One came on opening day against a bad Packers squad, a game that the Lions tried to give away, but Green Bay wasn’t good enough to take it. The other came last week, in a game where Joey Harrington again failed to pass for even 100 yards, but the referees handed Detroit the game thanks to a near record 21 penalties for the equally hapless Ravens. Detroit has lost their best two receivers, with Roy Williams suffering from injury concerns and Charles Rogers serving an NFL mandated suspension.
Here’s the stat that tells the true story of the Lions. The 49ers are the NFL’s worst team, with Houston not far behind. Those are the only two teams other than 2-3 Buffalo with a worse yards per play differential than Detroit this year. Detroit gains 4.1 yards per play, more than a yard below the league average, while allowing 5.0 yards per play, a 0.9 yard differential. Joey Harrington has a QB rating that ranks ahead of only one starter in football – rookie Kyle Orton of the Bears, a 4th round pick thrust into duty due to injuries.
Detroit is far worse than the Cardinals team that Carolina beat last week, yet in this instance, the Panthers are the underdogs instead of the favorite because the square bettors saw Detroit put up 35 points on Baltimore’s ‘great’ defense last week. Much like they did last week, we expect the superior team to find a way to win. And with the underdog in Panthers games now on a 28-8 ATS run (78%), we have no hesitation recommending the underdog here.
Play Carolina +1
Predicted Final: Carolina 20 Detroit 13
October Record: 28-12-1
September Record Ended: 53-32-1
We went 2-2 Yesterday.
Today's Selection:
NFL-
St Louis vs. Indianapolis 9:00 p.m. ET 1 Units (Total)
MLB-
St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros 8:28 p.m. ET 4 Units (Side)
Sign Up For the Day Pass For $15 or For The Week For $65.
Get on Board to PUT YOUR BOOKIE IN A WHEELCHAIR!!
Sundays 2-2 Recap
Game: Washington vs. Kansas City 1:00 p.m. ET
Sport: NFL - National Football League
Line: Kansas City -5.5 -110
Prediction: Kansas City -5.5 -110
Explanation: 3 Units
FINAL SCORE: Kansas City 28 Washington 21 WIN +($300) UNITS
We had a pretty darn good read on the Washington Redskins this year, winning with them in each of their last three games, including a pair of 5 Units. This is the week to jump off that train and bet against the Redskins – just when the public and the touts are jumping on Washington , recognizing their propensity for close games.
We been amazed at how much the squares around town here in Vegas seem to like Washington this week, and this line has been pounded down a full point and a half from the opener. The problem is that Washington is in a miserable spot right now. They played a nail-biter at Dallas , closing out with two long TD passes to earn the last minute victory. They played a nail-biter at home against Seattle the following week, surviving a field goal attempt off the uprights at the end of regulation to win in overtime. Last week, they didn’t survive the nail-biter, scoring a late touchdown but failing on the two point conversion attempt to lose at Denver by two points, still covering the pointspread.
Now they have to go out on the road again, to face the most potent offense that they’ve seen, in a very difficult venue. To make matters worse for the ‘Skins, Lavar Arrington has been creating quite the distraction in practice this week, whining to the media about his lack of playing time. This has all the makings of a game in which Washington is going to have a very hard time getting up for.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs are tanned, rested and ready following their bye week after their second half, turnover induced collapse against the Eagles two Sunday’s ago. KC has been very strong under Dick Vermeil in their first home game following a bye, with four wins in four tries, three of the wins coming by double digit margins of 12, 21 and 46 points.
Most importantly, the Chiefs have their MVP, totally under-represented by the linesmakers, back in the lineup this week as Left Tackle Willie Roaf returns following a three game absence. With Roaf back in the lineup, Tony Gonzalez has more room to roam the middle of the field on pass patterns, opening up the offense. No surprise here if this one gets ugly for the road underdog.
Play Kansas City -5.5
Predicted Final: Kansas City 27 Washington 17
Game: Houston vs. Seattle 8;00 p.m. ET
Sport: NFL - National Football League
Line: Houston +10 -120 (Buy 1/2 pts)
Prediction: Houston +10 -120 (Buy 1/2 pts)
Explanation: 2 Units
FINAL SCORE: Seattle 42 Houston 10 Loss -($240) UNITS
If you watched the game between Seattle and St Louis closely last week, you saw why we won’t lay points with Mike Holmgren and his staff anymore. The Seahawks had been getting pressure on Mark Bulger with their aggressive schemes all afternoon long, sacking Bulger four times and hurrying him repeatedly. They took a nine point lead halfway through the fourth quarter, meaning that the Rams needed two scored to win. Holmgren immediately changed the strategy that had been working so well, rushing only three or four while playing prevent defense. The Rams immediately marched down the field for a score, making it a one possession game. That ‘prevent defense’ strategy has killed Seattle bettors on more than a handful of occasions over the past two seasons, including the previous week at Washington where it cost them the outright win, thanks to three third and long completions in overtime from the Redskins. But Holmgren’s mismanagement gets even worse than that. Seattle got the ball back with less than four minutes on the clock and a six point lead. They had been running Shaun Alexander effectively all day: 25 rushes, 119 yards, two touchdowns. Everybody in the world knows that the most important thing to do in that situation is to run out the clock, on the ground. Instead, Holmgren, in his infinite wisdom, chose to pass on first down. And pass on second down. And pass on third down. Two incomplete passes, a sack, and a punt on a drive that took less than a minute, giving the ball back to St Louis with just under three minutes left on the clock. The Rams didn’t even burn a single timeout! Only a Rams fumble on the ensuing punt gave Seattle the win – otherwise St Louis would have marched down the field and scored the game winning touchdown. That’s what happens when you lay points with Mike Holmgren – you get poor decision making during crunch time.
Meanwhile, there’s a long standing system about betting 0-4 teams in the NFL, called the ‘Heinous Teams of the NFL’ strategy (no, we not making that up). These are teams that no public bettor wants to touch – they stink! The linesmakers know this, and adjust the pointspread dramatically to get some semblance of balance with their bets – you get extra value every time you back one of these teams. That’s why blindly betting these heinous teams produces a profit every year! Green Bay showed that an 0-4 team can be dangerous last week. Houston still plays pretty good defense, even though their offense is struggling, and they get a chance for redemption on national TV. No surprise whatsoever if the Texans keep this one very close throughout. Even if they don’t, the backdoor cover is always open against the Seahawks.
Play Houston +10
Predicted Final: Seattle 24 Houston 17
Game: Miami vs. Tampa Bay 1;00 p.m. ET
Sport: NFL - National Football League
Line: Miami +4 -110
Prediction: Miami +4 -110
Explanation: 3 Units
FINAL SCORE: Tampa Bay 27 Miami 13 Loss -($330) UNITS
Tampa Bay is a vastly overrated football team, despite their 4-1 record. It’s surely worth noting that the Bucs 2-3 mark against the spread speaks volumes about their capabilities in comparison to what the linesmakers are asking of them. Minnesota self destructed against the Bucs in Week 1, a game the Vikings easily could have won. The Bills self destructed in similar fashion in Week 2, young JP Losman struggling mightily in the first road start of his NFL career. The Bucs finished +3 in turnovers against the Packers at Green Bay in Week 3, but still couldn’t cover the pointspread as a road favorite, when 92% of NFL teams with a +3 turnover margin cover the pointspread. Two weeks, Jon Gruden’s club got a mystifying instant replay reversal to win the game against the hapless Lions, but still couldn’t cover the pointspread. Last week, they faced a 41 year old quarterback making his first start of the season and lost outright against a 1-3 foe.
Tampa Bay’s offense is a disaster area. Cadillac Williams is less than 100% if he plays at all, with a bad hamstring. He had no room to run whatsoever in his last start, against Detroit, because the Bucs porous offensive line couldn’t open any holes. Brian Griese is constantly under pressure thanks to that bad offensive line, and he’s not at his best (to put it mildly) when under pressure. The Bucs have averaged less than six yards per pass attempt in three of their last four games because Griese doesn’t have time to throw it downfield, settling for dink and dunk routes. Reggie Williams, last year’s sensation, has been a non-factor in 2005.
Miami is in the ideal spot to upset their neighbors to the north. The heat and humidity of Florida, such a huge advantage for Tampa in the early part of the season, has no effect on the Dolphins. Miami committed 18 penalties at Buffalo last week, and was -4 in the turnover battle. They still almost came back and won that game! After an error filled performance like that, we can expect Nick Saban to have his club ready here. We like what offensive coordinator Scott Linehan is doing with Gus Frerrote, challenging opposing defenses deep. Ronnie Brown has been finding room to run thanks to that strategy. We rate the Dolphins as the better team on both sides of the football, and this spot is excellent for the road underdog.
Play Miami +4
Predicted Final: Tampa Bay 17 Miami 14
Game: Carolina vs. Detroit 1:00 p.m. ET
Sport: NFL - National Football League
Line: Carolina +1 -110
Prediction: Carolina +1 -110
Explanation: 3 Units
FINAL SCORE: Carolina 21 Detroit 20 WIN +($300) UNITS
We backed the Panthers last week at Arizona, and were rewarded with a tight victory as Carolina rallied back in the fourth quarter thanks to a crucial defensive touchdown to win the game by four. This Panthers team certainly hasn’t looked like the Super Bowl contender they were supposed to be thusfar. That’s not necessarily a bad thing here – we’re getting no shortage of line value in against inferior opposition once again.
Detroit has two wins this season. One came on opening day against a bad Packers squad, a game that the Lions tried to give away, but Green Bay wasn’t good enough to take it. The other came last week, in a game where Joey Harrington again failed to pass for even 100 yards, but the referees handed Detroit the game thanks to a near record 21 penalties for the equally hapless Ravens. Detroit has lost their best two receivers, with Roy Williams suffering from injury concerns and Charles Rogers serving an NFL mandated suspension.
Here’s the stat that tells the true story of the Lions. The 49ers are the NFL’s worst team, with Houston not far behind. Those are the only two teams other than 2-3 Buffalo with a worse yards per play differential than Detroit this year. Detroit gains 4.1 yards per play, more than a yard below the league average, while allowing 5.0 yards per play, a 0.9 yard differential. Joey Harrington has a QB rating that ranks ahead of only one starter in football – rookie Kyle Orton of the Bears, a 4th round pick thrust into duty due to injuries.
Detroit is far worse than the Cardinals team that Carolina beat last week, yet in this instance, the Panthers are the underdogs instead of the favorite because the square bettors saw Detroit put up 35 points on Baltimore’s ‘great’ defense last week. Much like they did last week, we expect the superior team to find a way to win. And with the underdog in Panthers games now on a 28-8 ATS run (78%), we have no hesitation recommending the underdog here.
Play Carolina +1
Predicted Final: Carolina 20 Detroit 13