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ALABAMA (5 - 0) at MISSISSIPPI (2 - 3): Play On Mississippi +13 3 10/15/2005 11:00:00 AM

Mississippi playing with home revenge vs. undefeated Bama coming off a bye week and I see some value with Ole Miss in this match-up. This is only Alabama's 2nd road game and they have a home date with Tennessee next week so this is a potential let down game for them. I see this game being closer than many would expect. Here is a situation trend I like that indicates this may not be as big as a mis-match as the national media and line would lead you to believe. Play Against - Any team (ALABAMA) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. (25-2 over the last 5 seasons.) (92.6%, +22.8 units). The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (15-14 over the last 5 seasons.) The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 10.7. The average score in these games was: Team 29.1, Opponent 26.4 (Average point differential = +2.7). The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (64.3% of all games.). The situation's record this season is: (2-0). Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2). Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (36-10). I am going to grab the home dog here for one unit. I would expect this line to climb Saturday AM so monitor this line. Play On Mississippi +13 and look for a big effort from them to cash 1 unit.

NFL will be set to go Saturday Night

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[Lsufan]

Good Luck Buzz