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10/10/2005
We went 3-1 Yesterday with a very nice profit of $880 (8.80) Units.
October Record: 20-7-1
September Record Ended: 53-32-1
Today's Selection:
NFL:
Pittsburgh vs. San Diego 2 Units (Side)
Sign Up For the Day Pass For $15 or For The Week For $65.
Get on Board to PUT YOUR BOOKIE IN A WHEELCHAIR!!
Sunday's 3-1 Recap
Game: Carolina vs. Arizona 4:15 p.m. ET
Sport: MLB - Major League Baseball
Line: Carolina -2.5 -110
Prediction: Carolina -2.5 -110
Explanation: 4 Units
FINAL SCORE: Carolina 24 Arizona 20 WIN +($400) UNITS
Carolina is better than Arizona in every way, yet the linesmakers are only asking us to lay a field goal or less with the superior team. The Panthers offense should shred Arizona’s porous defense. ‘Zona has already lost their #1 draft choice, cornerback Antrel Rolle. They may also be without the starter on the other side, David Macklin, and nickel corner Raymond Wells, leaving their suspect secondary in big trouble against Steven Smith and Keary Colbert. Against the run, Arizona has allowed 4.5 yards per carry for the season, good for third worst in the league.
There should be plenty of room for Stephen Davis and Deshaun Foster to run. The Panthers strong offensive line can handle the Cardinals lone defensive strength, their pass rush. The Panthers have scored 27, 24 and 32 over the last three weeks and should put up similar numbers here.
Arizona’s offensive line is a major area of weakness – it has been all season. They have no running game to speak of, making the offense completely one dimensional. If there’s one thing that the Panthers do extremely well, it’s get after the quarterback – they have one of the most dominant defensive lines in football. Facing a one dimensional offense and an inexperienced quarterback, we can expect Carolina’s defensive front to dominate – this is a Julius Peppers type of game.
Throw in Arizona’s strong propensity for settling for field goals, the worst red zone offense in the NFL, and you can expect the Cardinals points to be coming in three’s not in seven’s, bad news for any underdog. Last, but not least, the coaching differential here must be noted. John Fox vs. Denny Green is a mismatch, plain and simple. Arizona is overvalued here, thanks to their national TV performance against the lowly 49ers last week, and they are likely to be flat playing in front of 30,000 fans instead of the 110,000 screaming supporters that they had in Mexico City last week. Carolina dominated Green Bay, but blew the pointspread cover late, a classic example of a team thinking they had the game won after three quarters. Carolina won’t attract the public money here as a result, but the team comes to play for four quarters here!
Play Carolina -2.5
Predicted Final: Carolina 30 Arizona 17
Game: Washington vs. Denver 4:15 p.m. ET
Sport: NFL - National Football League
Line: Washington +7.5 -110 10/04/05 8:28:54 PM -7.5/110 (5 dimes.com)
Prediction: Washington +7 .5 -110
Explanation: 5 Units
FINAL SCORE: Denver 21 Washington 19 WIN +($500) UNITS
We continue to think Washington is arguably the most undervalued team in the NFL right now, and we are prepared to back them up again against an overrated foe. Washington is 3-0, coming off another thrilling, last minute victory, their second straight contest in which this team simply found a way to win the game. All reports out of Washington have this team feeling good about themselves, buying into what Joe Gibbs is selling, without a shred of a quarterback controversy with Mark Brunell behind center.
The Redskins are the epitome of a smashmouth football team – they run the football with Clinton Portis (making his return to Denver), and stop the run. In fact, Washington is a dominant defensive football team, giving up exactly four touchdowns so far this season. Dallas scored 28 and 34 against their other two opponents, just 13 against the ‘Skins. Chicago scored 38 against Detroit the week after they scored seven against the ‘Skins. Seattle scored 37 two weeks ago, but last week, they managed just 17 against their fierce Washington defense.
This is a classic letdown spot for the Denver Broncos. They beat back-2-back divisional foes at home, knocking off the Chargers and Chiefs, playing a near perfect game against Kansas City. Then, Denver went down to Jacksonville and played another excellent ballgame, beating the Jags convincingly. Now, they return home to face a non-conference foe, with a test against the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots on deck. Talk about a bad spot!
The technical trends strongly support Washington here. The Redskins are 9-3 ATS in their last dozen tries as a road underdog; Denver is 3-8-1 in their last dozen tries as a touchdown favorite or more. The spot is nothing short of outstanding for this road underdog, and the matchups certainly favor Washington as well. With the Redskins run defense, Jake Plummer is going to have to make big plays for Denver to win this game, let alone cover this pointspread, and Plummer is never at his best when he’s asked to carry more than his share of the load.
*Shop for this game line because lots of sportsbook have this game from 6.5 to 7.5
We found the best line for this game at 5 Dimes.com
Play Washington +7.5
Predicted Final: Denver 16 Washington 13
Game: Indianapolis vs. San Francisco 4:05 p.m. ET
Sport: NFL - National Football League
Line: Total 47 Under -115
Prediction: Under 47 -115
Explanation: 2 Units
FINAL SCORE: Indianapolis 28 San Francisco 3 WIN +($200) UNITS
San Francisco is starting a rookie quarterback, making his first NFL appearance. Alex Smith won’t have the benefit of any sort of a running game to help him out – the 49ers are ranked right near the bottom of the league in rushing yardage, gaining just 66 yards per game on the ground. Smith won’t have the benefit of a healthy receiving corps either, with Arnaz Battle less than 100% if he plays at all. Most importantly, Smith will be playing behind one of the weakest offensive lines in the league, facing one of the strongest defensive lines in the NFL. He’ll be running for his life from Dwight Freeney every time he drops back to pass.
The Colts are allowing a league low 6.5 points per game for a reason…. Indy is not the same team that they were last year, piling on the points because they need to, because their defense couldn’t hold any lead. Instead, this year’s version of the Colts is a grind-it-out, ball control type of team. They grind out clock with Edgerrin James on the ground; Peyton Manning is quite content settling for the shorter passing routes instead of trying for the home run ball on every possession. Heck, the Colts haven’t even averaged 20 points per game during the first month of the season!
Indy has nothing to prove by running up the score here. Each of their first four games has gone Under the total, most by a margin of more than a touchdown, not games that come down to the final possession, with bettors hanging on the edge of their seats. Outdoors, on grass, with a Monday Night matchup against St Louis on deck, this is not a likely spot for Indy to suddenly look to run up the score against an outmanned foe. Expect a workmanlike effort from the Colts here in another low scoring victory.
Play the Under 47
Predicted Final: Indianapolis 27 San Francisco 10
Game: New England vs. Atlanta 1:00 p.m. ET
Sport: NFL - National Football League
Line: Atlanta -2.5 -110
Prediction: Atlanta -2.5 -110
Explanation: 2 Units
FINAL SCORE: Atlanta 28 New England 31 Loss -($220) UNITS
There is plenty of money coming in on the Patriots here – this team, after all, hasn’t lost two games in a row since 2002. New England is 16-5 straight up away from home in their last 21 tries, and they are 7-0-1 in their last eight tries as an underdog, winning all seven of those games outright.
The problem for New England supporters, however, is that this is not the same Patriots team that just won back-2-back Super Bowls. It’s not even the same Patriots team that started the season with impressive wins against Oakland and at Pittsburgh. The extent of the injury devastation for New England is very, very real. Losing a pro bowler like Rodney Harrison from the secondary is one thing. Losing Harrison along with CB’s Randall Gay, Tyrone Pool and safety James Sanders is completely another thing entirely. Losing left tackle Matt Light, the guy who protects Tom Brady’s blind side, is perhaps the most important loss of all. Teams that start two rookies on the offensive line are not usually playoff teams, regardless of how good their coach and quarterback are.
And the Falcons are not your average team. Atlanta is 9-1 SU in their last ten at home; this is the Pats first game on turf in their last nine. Atlanta has a dominant defensive line – Rod Coleman should eat the Pats weaker OL alive. The Falcons run the football and stuff the run as well as any team in football. New England’s defensive weakness all year has been stopping the run. The Falcons are no mirage, Michael Vick is no mirage.
Play Atlanta -2.5
Predicted Final: Atlanta 23 New England 20
10/10/2005
We went 3-1 Yesterday with a very nice profit of $880 (8.80) Units.
October Record: 20-7-1
September Record Ended: 53-32-1
Today's Selection:
NFL:
Pittsburgh vs. San Diego 2 Units (Side)
Sign Up For the Day Pass For $15 or For The Week For $65.
Get on Board to PUT YOUR BOOKIE IN A WHEELCHAIR!!
Sunday's 3-1 Recap
Game: Carolina vs. Arizona 4:15 p.m. ET
Sport: MLB - Major League Baseball
Line: Carolina -2.5 -110
Prediction: Carolina -2.5 -110
Explanation: 4 Units
FINAL SCORE: Carolina 24 Arizona 20 WIN +($400) UNITS
Carolina is better than Arizona in every way, yet the linesmakers are only asking us to lay a field goal or less with the superior team. The Panthers offense should shred Arizona’s porous defense. ‘Zona has already lost their #1 draft choice, cornerback Antrel Rolle. They may also be without the starter on the other side, David Macklin, and nickel corner Raymond Wells, leaving their suspect secondary in big trouble against Steven Smith and Keary Colbert. Against the run, Arizona has allowed 4.5 yards per carry for the season, good for third worst in the league.
There should be plenty of room for Stephen Davis and Deshaun Foster to run. The Panthers strong offensive line can handle the Cardinals lone defensive strength, their pass rush. The Panthers have scored 27, 24 and 32 over the last three weeks and should put up similar numbers here.
Arizona’s offensive line is a major area of weakness – it has been all season. They have no running game to speak of, making the offense completely one dimensional. If there’s one thing that the Panthers do extremely well, it’s get after the quarterback – they have one of the most dominant defensive lines in football. Facing a one dimensional offense and an inexperienced quarterback, we can expect Carolina’s defensive front to dominate – this is a Julius Peppers type of game.
Throw in Arizona’s strong propensity for settling for field goals, the worst red zone offense in the NFL, and you can expect the Cardinals points to be coming in three’s not in seven’s, bad news for any underdog. Last, but not least, the coaching differential here must be noted. John Fox vs. Denny Green is a mismatch, plain and simple. Arizona is overvalued here, thanks to their national TV performance against the lowly 49ers last week, and they are likely to be flat playing in front of 30,000 fans instead of the 110,000 screaming supporters that they had in Mexico City last week. Carolina dominated Green Bay, but blew the pointspread cover late, a classic example of a team thinking they had the game won after three quarters. Carolina won’t attract the public money here as a result, but the team comes to play for four quarters here!
Play Carolina -2.5
Predicted Final: Carolina 30 Arizona 17
Game: Washington vs. Denver 4:15 p.m. ET
Sport: NFL - National Football League
Line: Washington +7.5 -110 10/04/05 8:28:54 PM -7.5/110 (5 dimes.com)
Prediction: Washington +7 .5 -110
Explanation: 5 Units
FINAL SCORE: Denver 21 Washington 19 WIN +($500) UNITS
We continue to think Washington is arguably the most undervalued team in the NFL right now, and we are prepared to back them up again against an overrated foe. Washington is 3-0, coming off another thrilling, last minute victory, their second straight contest in which this team simply found a way to win the game. All reports out of Washington have this team feeling good about themselves, buying into what Joe Gibbs is selling, without a shred of a quarterback controversy with Mark Brunell behind center.
The Redskins are the epitome of a smashmouth football team – they run the football with Clinton Portis (making his return to Denver), and stop the run. In fact, Washington is a dominant defensive football team, giving up exactly four touchdowns so far this season. Dallas scored 28 and 34 against their other two opponents, just 13 against the ‘Skins. Chicago scored 38 against Detroit the week after they scored seven against the ‘Skins. Seattle scored 37 two weeks ago, but last week, they managed just 17 against their fierce Washington defense.
This is a classic letdown spot for the Denver Broncos. They beat back-2-back divisional foes at home, knocking off the Chargers and Chiefs, playing a near perfect game against Kansas City. Then, Denver went down to Jacksonville and played another excellent ballgame, beating the Jags convincingly. Now, they return home to face a non-conference foe, with a test against the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots on deck. Talk about a bad spot!
The technical trends strongly support Washington here. The Redskins are 9-3 ATS in their last dozen tries as a road underdog; Denver is 3-8-1 in their last dozen tries as a touchdown favorite or more. The spot is nothing short of outstanding for this road underdog, and the matchups certainly favor Washington as well. With the Redskins run defense, Jake Plummer is going to have to make big plays for Denver to win this game, let alone cover this pointspread, and Plummer is never at his best when he’s asked to carry more than his share of the load.
*Shop for this game line because lots of sportsbook have this game from 6.5 to 7.5
We found the best line for this game at 5 Dimes.com
Play Washington +7.5
Predicted Final: Denver 16 Washington 13
Game: Indianapolis vs. San Francisco 4:05 p.m. ET
Sport: NFL - National Football League
Line: Total 47 Under -115
Prediction: Under 47 -115
Explanation: 2 Units
FINAL SCORE: Indianapolis 28 San Francisco 3 WIN +($200) UNITS
San Francisco is starting a rookie quarterback, making his first NFL appearance. Alex Smith won’t have the benefit of any sort of a running game to help him out – the 49ers are ranked right near the bottom of the league in rushing yardage, gaining just 66 yards per game on the ground. Smith won’t have the benefit of a healthy receiving corps either, with Arnaz Battle less than 100% if he plays at all. Most importantly, Smith will be playing behind one of the weakest offensive lines in the league, facing one of the strongest defensive lines in the NFL. He’ll be running for his life from Dwight Freeney every time he drops back to pass.
The Colts are allowing a league low 6.5 points per game for a reason…. Indy is not the same team that they were last year, piling on the points because they need to, because their defense couldn’t hold any lead. Instead, this year’s version of the Colts is a grind-it-out, ball control type of team. They grind out clock with Edgerrin James on the ground; Peyton Manning is quite content settling for the shorter passing routes instead of trying for the home run ball on every possession. Heck, the Colts haven’t even averaged 20 points per game during the first month of the season!
Indy has nothing to prove by running up the score here. Each of their first four games has gone Under the total, most by a margin of more than a touchdown, not games that come down to the final possession, with bettors hanging on the edge of their seats. Outdoors, on grass, with a Monday Night matchup against St Louis on deck, this is not a likely spot for Indy to suddenly look to run up the score against an outmanned foe. Expect a workmanlike effort from the Colts here in another low scoring victory.
Play the Under 47
Predicted Final: Indianapolis 27 San Francisco 10
Game: New England vs. Atlanta 1:00 p.m. ET
Sport: NFL - National Football League
Line: Atlanta -2.5 -110
Prediction: Atlanta -2.5 -110
Explanation: 2 Units
FINAL SCORE: Atlanta 28 New England 31 Loss -($220) UNITS
There is plenty of money coming in on the Patriots here – this team, after all, hasn’t lost two games in a row since 2002. New England is 16-5 straight up away from home in their last 21 tries, and they are 7-0-1 in their last eight tries as an underdog, winning all seven of those games outright.
The problem for New England supporters, however, is that this is not the same Patriots team that just won back-2-back Super Bowls. It’s not even the same Patriots team that started the season with impressive wins against Oakland and at Pittsburgh. The extent of the injury devastation for New England is very, very real. Losing a pro bowler like Rodney Harrison from the secondary is one thing. Losing Harrison along with CB’s Randall Gay, Tyrone Pool and safety James Sanders is completely another thing entirely. Losing left tackle Matt Light, the guy who protects Tom Brady’s blind side, is perhaps the most important loss of all. Teams that start two rookies on the offensive line are not usually playoff teams, regardless of how good their coach and quarterback are.
And the Falcons are not your average team. Atlanta is 9-1 SU in their last ten at home; this is the Pats first game on turf in their last nine. Atlanta has a dominant defensive line – Rod Coleman should eat the Pats weaker OL alive. The Falcons run the football and stuff the run as well as any team in football. New England’s defensive weakness all year has been stopping the run. The Falcons are no mirage, Michael Vick is no mirage.
Play Atlanta -2.5
Predicted Final: Atlanta 23 New England 20