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**TheMoneyPicks** · 10-09-2005, 02:44 AM

Saturday 4-0 Recap from www.TheMoneyPicks.com

We went 4-0-Yesterday with a very nice profit of $1,000 (10 Units).

October Record: 17-6-1
September Record Ended: 53-32-1

Game: Illinois vs. Indiana 12:00 p.m. ET

Sport: NCAA - National Collegiate Athletic Association

Line: Indiana -6.5 -110

Prediction: Indiana -6.5 -110

Explanation: 2 Units

FINAL SCORE: Indiana 36 llinois 13 WIN +($200) UNITS

Ron Zook’s Illini haven't even been competitive in their first two Big 10 games, losing 61-14 to Michigan St and 35-7 to Iowa. Their defense has been shredded by every decent attack they’ve faced this season, giving up 30+ in four of their five games. Illinois has allowed more than 290 yards on the ground in each of the last three weeks, giving up 8.4, 7.8 and 7.7 yards per carry in those three games. And, without a bye week thusfar to work on any of their defensive problems, we can expect the Illinois defensive woes to continue here. Meanwhile, Illinois has their share of offensive problems as well. Zook’s spread offense simply hasn’t taken hold, with troubles galore in the red zone again this past weekend. The Illini moved the ball into Iowa territory on four separate first half drives, but they came away without a single point – a punt, an interception, a missed field goal and a blocked field goal just isn’t going to cut it for any underdog. Then, in the second half, the Illini offense showed a lot of quit in them, just the way they did the previous week against the Spartans.

Indiana has the running game to exploit the Illini’s defensive weakness. Chris Taylor and Yamar Washington have more than 500 rushing yards between them, averaging 4.6 yards per carry between them. Hoosiers quarterback Blake Powers is far ahead of Illinois’ Tim Brasic in learning Terry Hoeppner’s spread offense, with 14 touchdown passes already this season. And Indiana’s defensive numbers are vastly superior to those of the Illini, both against the run and against the pass. Look for the Hoosiers to cruise against inferior opposition, just the way they did in their three wins to open up the season.

Play Indiana -6.5

Predicted Final: Indiana 34 llinois 24

Game: North Carolina vs. Louisville 4:40 p.m. ET

Sport: NCAA - National Collegiate Athletic Association

Line: Louisville -12.5 -110

Prediction: Louisville -12.5 -110

Explanation: 4 Units

FINAL SCORE: Louisville 69 North Carolina 14 WIN +($400) UNITS

North Carolina is not a team to fear. The Tar Heels were outplayed at home, in a major revenge game against Utah last week – don’t be fooled by the 31-17 final score. UNC led by only three, despite a kick return touchdown, late in the third quarter when Utah intercepted a pass and returned it for a TD, taking a 21-17 lead. But the play was called back on a roughing the passer penalty, giving North Carolina a first down and eventually a touchdown. Utah committed three turnovers in their last five possessions, and the Tar Heels emerged victorious. Now, this overrated North Carolina team must go on the road and face a Louisville team that completely dominated them last year in a 34-0 shutout win in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels were outgained by a 2:1 margin at home in that game – the final score was no illusion. This is the second consecutive non-conference game for UNC, and they have a bye week on deck, followed by the meat of their ACC schedule. If (when) things get ugly in the second half, we don’t expect the Tar Heels to have much fight in them given the bad spot.

Louisville is a team to be feared at Papa John’s Stadium right now. Their two home games this year? 63-27 and 61-10. Their home games last year? Just as dominant: 28-0, 59-7, 41-9, 55-28, 70-7. Even dating back to ’03, this team crushed foes at home, beating bowl bound Houston 66-45, along with 47-28, 34-10 and 42-14 victories. HC Bobby Petrino takes his homefield advantage very seriously. The Cardinals are seriously undervalued right now thanks to their surprising loss at South Florida two weeks ago. We still got them ranked in our Top 10, with one of the most explosive offenses in college football. QB Brian Brohm is completing 68% of his passes, averaging more than 300 yards per game through the air. RB’s Michael Bush and Kolby Smith have more than 700 rushing yards between them, each averaging better than six yards per carry. But the defense is what is going to cover this double digit spread. DE Elvis Dumervil is one of the most explosive players in football, creating havoc in the backfield on nearly every passing play.

That’s bad news against a team that can’t grind out clock on the ground – North Carolina has gained only 86 yards per game on the ground, just 2.5 yards per carry. If you can’t grind out yardage on the ground against Louisville, eventually, your defense is going to submit to the Cardinals explosive attack. That makes Louisville’s blowout potential here enormous.

Play Louisville -12.5

Predicted Final: Louisville 45 North Carolina 24

Game: Utah vs. Colorado State 6:30 p.m. ET

Sport: NCAA - National Collegiate Athletic Association

Line: Utah +4.5 -110

Prediction: Utah +4.5 -110

Explanation: 2 Units

FINAL SCORE: Utah 17 Colorado State 21 WIN +($200) UNITS

Utah is a very undervalued team right now, particularly in conference. No, this Utes team isn’t going undefeated like they did last year. But the Utes are no slouches either. They were extremely competitive at North Carolina last week, with one flag changing the whole game for game – instead of an interception returned for a touchdown to take a 21-17 late 3rd quarter lead, the Tar Heels got a first down, then a touchdown, to take a 24-14 lead of their own. Utah was also extremely competitive in their previous road tilt, at TCU, losing by a FG in overtime, and the Horned Frogs have certainly proven to be a quality foe. Utah also blew two pointspread ****** in games that they led comfortably in the fourth quarter, allowing Arizona and Air Force to rally back to make the final scores more competitive than the actual games were. Meanwhile, Colorado State is off an impressive, national TV blowout win over Air Force in a game that the Falcons clearly were looking ahead to their huge matchup with Navy. So, were actually getting great value on the superior ballclub for this game, a situation worth exploiting with a wager.

We are not impressed at all with Colorado State’s defense. The Rams have some ugly numbers, both against the pass and against the run, allowing 4.8 yards per carry and 8.4 yards per pass attempt. No surprise, then, that Sonny Lubeck’s club is giving up 33 points per game for the season, not the type of team that you want to lay more than a field goal with. Colorado State has managed to win and cover the spread in their last two games because of the passing of Dustin Holland. Here, Holland is not likely to have much time to throw. Utah has the most dominant defensive line in the Mountain West, with DT Steve Fifita the preseason MWC defensive player of the year. But Colorado State has a bunch of unpublicized injuries on their offensive line. Starting Center Albert Bimper won't play against Utah . Guard Josh Day is also ailing with a hamstring strain. If Day can start, Nick Allotta will play center after filling in at guard for two weeks for Brandon Alconcel. As it is, Alconcel will have his range limited by a brace on his elbow. If Day remains sidelined, veteran tackle Mike Brisiel could go to center, freeing Allotta to play guard in place of Day. Redshirt freshmen Dane Stratton and rarely used junior Jerome Williams are the top candidates to fill in. "Bimper is such a key part of the line," Brisiel said. This is not a stable offensive line situation, and they are going up against a talented, hungry defense. Sounds like trouble to us ….

Play Utah +4.5

Predicted Final: Utah 31 Colorado State 27

Game: Oregon vs. Arizona State 10:00 p.m. ET

Sport: NCAA - National Collegiate Athletic Association

Line: Oregon +10 -110

Prediction: Oregon +10 -110

Explanation: 2 Units

FINAL SCORE: Arizona State 17 Oregon 31 WIN +($200) UNITS

Arizona St gave a huge effort but they were really out-physical-ed in the second half of their game vs. USC last week. The Wildcats cannot be expected to come up with the same effort here, and they are facing an opponent with a ‘take no prisoners’ attitude and an offense potent enough to keep this game close throughout.

Arizona St has a history of being unable to bounce back off a disappointing loss under Dirk Koetter. Last year, following their loss to the Trojans, the Wildcats only covered one pointspread in their final five regular season games. Two years ago, Arizona St lost outright twice in a row following their first defeat of the campaign.

Arizona State also have problems on their offensive line. Starting right tackle Andrew Carnahan is out, starting right guard Zack Krula is also out, and starting left guard Stephen Berg is less than 100% if he plays at all. Oregon’s secondary has been spotty, but their pass defense works when they can get pressure on the quarterback. Facing two new starters on the right side of the line is very good news for pass rusher extraordinaire Devan Long and company.

Oregon is 9-3 ATS as an underdog in their last dozen tries, dating back to the start of the 2003 season. This team wins games and ****** pointspreads on the road, 7-6 SU in their last 13 road games, including a 2-0 mark already this year. Senior QB Kellen Clemens is flourishing in Gary Crowton’s offense, with a 12:1 TD:INT ratio, completing 65% of his passes, throwing for more than 300 yards per game. The ten points we are getting here is a gift, yet this line keeps going up!

Play Oregon +10

Predicted Final: Arizona State 38 Oregon 34

Announcement

10-8-05 www.TheMoneyPicks.com (2 Units) Utah +4.5 -110 vs. Colorado State

10-8-05 www.TheMoneyPicks.com (2 Units) Utah +4.5 -110 vs. Colorado State

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