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**TheMoneyPicks** · 10-02-2005, 03:31 AM

www.theMoneyPicks.com Saturdays 4-1 Recap

10/02/2005

October Reecortd: 4-1
September Record Ended: 53-32-1

We went 4-1 Yesterday hitting our 10 Units Play on Middle Tennessee State winning outright over Vanderbilt.

Here's the recap:

Game: Michigan vs Michigan State 12:00 p.m. ET

Sport: NCAA - National Collegiate Athletic Association

Line: Michigan +6 -110

Prediction: Michigan +6 -110

Explanation: 2 Units

FINAL SCORE: Michigan 34 Michigan State 31 WIN +($200) UNITS

Michigan St hasn’t been favored over Michigan since the 1980’s. The Spartans have beaten the Wolverines three times in the last ten years – by 2, 3 and 3 points. This line is a massive overreaction to last week’s games, in which Michigan lost in the last minute against a tough Wisconsin team, while Michigan St blew out a bad Illinois team. Sorry, folks – We just don’t buy it.

The revenge angle is getting overused here as well. The Spartans have lost a pair of heartbreakers in the last two years against the Wolverines. Last year’s game was particularly tough for the East Lansing faithful to swallow, as they led 27-10 in the fourth quarter before Michigan rallied behind QB Chad Henne to steal the victory. That revenge angle is giving us added value here, as this line continues to be bet up, into a range that Michigan St hasn’t been able to achieve against Michigan in decades.

Michigan still has one major matchup edge against Michigan St: the Wolverines passing offense against the Spartans pass defense. Michigan St blew the big lead last year because they couldn’t handle Michigan’s passing game. Why should this year be any different? The Spartans still don’t have the depth and talent in the defensive backfield to contain Michigan’s explosive receiving corps. And we can expect Lloyd Carr to open up the passing game a bit this week, after his conservative playcalling essentially cost them yet another road opener last week.

The Spartans couldn’t stop Kent’s passing game, or Hawaii’s. Brady Quinn of Notre Dame rallied them back from a three TD second half deficit to send the game into overtime, throwing for 487 yards against the Spartans defense. Look for Michigan St’s porous secondary to be their pointspread undoing here.

Play Michigan + 6

Predicted Final: Michigan 31 Michigan State 28

Game: Middle Tennessee State vs. Vanderbilt 7:00 p.m. ET

Sport: NCAA - National Collegiate Athletic Association

Line: Middle Tennessee State +15 -110

Prediction: Middle Tennessee State +15 -110

Explanation: 10 Units

FINAL SCORE: Vanderbilt Middle 15 Tennessee State 17 WIN +($1,000) UNITS

Don’t be fooled by Vanderbilt’s 4-0 start – this is not a team worthy of laying big points to decent opposition. The Commodores are weak in many key areas. They have poor special teams with both the punting and kicking games. They have poor offensive line play, with QB Jay Cutler under pressure nearly every time he drops back to pass. Vandy has limited skill position talent – we’ve seen boatloads of dropped passes. Their defense is both undersized and slow, giving up chunks of yardage, vulnerable to any kind of mobility in the backfield from opposing quarterbacks or running backs. Yes, they do have a very good, experienced quarterback in Jay Cutler. But that’s about all they have working for them right now.

Vanderbilt has been a horrible favorite in recent years, just 3-9 ATS as chalk in their last dozen tries. They are the weaker of the two teams on the field this Saturday both against the Run and against the Pass, by a significant margin. The Blue Raiders have struggled offensively early in the season, but their defense has been rock solid, even in a tough game at Alabama, where MTSU allowed only 345 yards of total offense and covered the spread. The Blue Raiders have had an extra week to prepare, and they have beaten Vanderbilt SU in each of the last two meetings, both here in the 21st century. No surprise here if this game comes right down to the final possession.

Play Middle Tennessee State +15

Predicted Final: Vanderbilt Middle 24 Tennessee State 17

Game: Colorado vs Oklahoma State 2:00 p.m. ET

Sport: NCAA - National Collegiate Athletic Association

Line: Colorado -3 -110

Prediction: Colorado -3 -110

Explanation: 2 Units

FINAL SCORE: Colorado 34 Oklahoma State 0 WIN +($200) UNITS

Oklahoma St is the biggest undefeated fraud in all of college football. Their 3-0 start has come against the likes of 1-AA Montana St, and Sun Belt foes Florida Atlantic and Arkansas St. Worst of all, Mike Gundy’s new offense couldn’t even move the football at all against that Sun Belt level of opposition – the Cowboys passing game is still very much a work in progress. QB Bobby Reid was exactly 8-21 against Arkansas St – he’s not likely to fare well against Colorado’s defense here, especially with a roster full of players recruited for a completely different power rushing style employed by former HC Les Miles.

Gary Barnett wins games and ****** pointspreads on the Big 12 road – it’s been his priority for years. The Buffs are 16-8 ATS in Big 12 road games under Barnett, including a 3-1 mark last year. Worth noting that the lone ATS loss on the road last year came via a missed extra point, an extremely rare occurrence with outstanding kicker Mason Crosby on the road. Crosby’s distance and accuracy make him a legitimate ATS factor in these short spread games.

This is the time of year where strength of schedule really matters, and we can find great value with teams that have faced vastly superior levels of opposition. No, Colorado didn’t look good in the Miami heat last week, but the fact that they played the ‘Canes, along with another solid foe in Colorado St, make them battle tested here, in sharp contrast to the Cowboys. Colorado has a senior QB in Joel Klatt, who remembers well the 42-14 turnover induced whipping that Okie St laid on them in Boulder last year. No surprise if the road team wins again this year, by an equally lopsided margin.

Play Colorado -3

Predicted Final: Colorado 31 Oklahoma State 17

Game: Utah vs. North Carolina 1:00 p.m. ET

Sport: NCAA - National Collegiate Athletic Association

Line: North Carolina -3.5 -110

Prediction: North Carolina -3.5 -110

Explanation: 3 Units

FINAL SCORE: North Carolina 31 Utah 17 WIN +($300) UNITS

Utah takes a big step up in class in a horrible situational spot against a solid North Carolina team that was positively embarrassed in Salt Lake City last year. The Utes don’t take many trips to face ACC opponents 2000 miles from home, but they’ve got one here. Utah’s 18 game winning streak came to an end in their last road game, and this non-conference tilt against a motivated foe isn’t likely to help their road fortunes here.

Utah has shown more than a few weaknesses in early season play. Sophomore QB Brian Johnson may be a solid talent, but he’s a pretty big drop-off from the #1 pick in the NFL draft, Alex Smith, and this is only his second road start. The Utes had a dominant run defense last year, but graduation and the season ending injury to DL Marques Ledbetter has left them struggling against the run in ’05, allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Worth noting that Utah has three ATS losses and a push in ’05, still overvalued from last year’s dominant run. With the heart of their Mountain West schedule on deck, this has the makings of a very tough spot for the Utes.

North Carolina won’t overlook Utah, not after getting whipped 46-16 last year in Salt Lake City. The Tar Heels were so embarrassed by that defeat that it changed the course of their entire season – they upset Miami-FL as 22 point underdogs the following week and ended up winning three of their last four, earning a bowl bid in the process. North Carolina is certainly battle tested, having faced Georgia Tech, Wisconsin and NC State in their first three games – this is their first opponent that they can really beat up on, at home. No surprise if this one gets ugly early for the road team.

Play North Carolina -3.5

Predicted Final: North Carolina 35 Utah 21

Game: Baylor vs. Texas A&M 12:30 p.m. ET

Sport: NCAA - National Collegiate Athletic Association

Line: Texas A&M -22.5 -110

Prediction: Texas A&M -22.5 -110

Explanation: 2 Units

FINAL SCORE: Texas A&M 16 Baylor 13 Loss -($220) UNITS

This is a game in which revenge really means something, and the revenge laden team has the capacity to do something about it. Texas A+M was a 25 point road favorite at Baylor last year, but they looked past the Bears and ended up losing the game outright thanks to a two point conversion in overtime, 35-34. Texas A+M ended up losing two of their next three to close out the regular season and got blasted in their bowl game – the loss to the Bears absolutely spoiled their season.

Baylor is 0-36 SU on the Big 12 road. They lost all four conference road games last year by 25 points or more. In fact, their only Big 12 road loss in the last three years by less than 25 points came against a rebuilding Kansas team. The Bears previous two meetings against A+M prior to last year’s upset win? They were hammered each time, 73-10 and 41-0. History does not bode well for Baylor, nor does the situation.

Aggies HC Dennis Franchione was a bully at New Mexico and a bully at Alabama – he beats up on the weak when the opportunity presents itself. Look what they did against SMU just two weeks ago, a 66-8 final that saw QB Reggie McNeal throwing deep up 40+ late in the third quarter. A+M runs the football well enough to keep the chains moving in the second half with the game out of reach, and their defense is strong enough to shut down modest opposition like Baylor. This game should get very ugly for the road team.

Play Texas A&M -22.5

Predicted Final: Texas A&M 45 Baylor 17

Announcement

10/01/05 www.TheMoneyPicks.com (2 Units) Colorado -3 vs Oklahoma State

10/01/05 www.TheMoneyPicks.com (2 Units) Colorado -3 vs Oklahoma State

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