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**Co-Captain** · 09-04-2005, 09:11 AM

FYI: This is an example of my "BIG GAME PLAY" from 2003-04 season in College Football with indepth Write-Up and Big Game Analysis...In fact, it was my Biggest/Strongest "BGP" , rated as my "BIG GAME PLAY"-GAME OF THE YEAR selection..

posted November 29, 2003 08:37 AM (**)

Aloha Gang. Well, as you may have already guessed, I am on the Warriors again this week. I was asked by a capping service here at this forum, if I ever bet against the Warriors, in which, I answered of course. Still, as I explained to him, that this year was different because of the scheduling of games, along with losses Hawaii suffered early in the season, has put them in very advantatious situations as well as important must win situations. I think that the lines posted by Vegas also helped to make the choice on the Warriors much easier also. However, like anything else, nothing is a guarantee in this sport, but this year did provide me great opportunities to take advantage of these setups, and allowed me and those that followed, big winnings backing the Warriors so far.

Todays Alabama/Hawaii game, is yet another perfect opportunity for me to capitalize on again, by backing the Warriors. It is very rare where you can cap a game and end up with all the confidence in your selection, where you list it as your GOY, and also be complimented with that same team your backing to also have the same feelings, thinking, emotions, because to them, this game also represents their season's GOY. With all the situational and motivational edges which I feel Hawaii has on their side today, and along with this being the game they above all want to win, I could not see anything that could or would, at this time, cause them not to achieve a victory over Alabama today. Thus, it is because of these edges and the Warriors present desire today, that I am confident in releasing this as my Game of the Year on Hawaii , played for 10 UNITS. This is my highest rated play, and also my first this year that I have released. I have been waiting for this game all year, and I am confident in it coming home a winner for us. Below is a list which explains the reasons I feel the Hawaii Warriors will not disappoint me today.

I wont go into stats, trends, or athletic comparisons between the two schools here, as I know most here can get those information and also debate those issues before, during, and even after, the game is completed. So instead, I would like to just list some edges in which I personally feel gives the Warriors an overwhelming advantage today over an Alabama team, who just stepped into this seemingly perfect setup for the Warriors to exploit.

These edges are listed in the order of their importance, inwhich I felt will play the major roles leading to victory for Hawaii today.

1. No intimidation factor exist. Last year, the guys were all playing under very mixed emotions and not in a controlled manner. Being that they faced Alabama last year and almost won, they go into this game fully focused and with a controlled enthusiasm and energy. No intimidation=no fear=more confidence=overwhelming desire to win=victory.

2. Everyone for Hawaii, enters this game at full strength and without any major injuries, both physically as well as mentally. Complete Focus on the objective at hand.

3. National TV(ESPN), only helps to bring out the best in everyone, especially dangerous teams at home. The Warriors always puts on a great performance and gets extra motivation to showcase their ability to play football here in the islands. Its an opportunity for Hawaii to show the people on the mainland what they are all about, an beating a name brand team like Alabama is just the way to do it.

4. Home field advantage. Hawaii is undefeated at home this year. Hawaii also has an impeccable record as a home dog, especially when in the double digits. But Vegas to cautious of this Home Field of the Warriors. Point spread of -2.5 on Alabama. The multi-time National Champions, from the powerful SEC, whose name says it all, and whose loaded with talent that only a school with their traditon, reputation, and stature can attract, only a 2.5 to 3 pt. favorite over a Hawaii squad from the weak and wacky WAC. That says alot in way of respect for the Warriors, and their House.

5. To many distractions for this Alabama squad to stay completely focused on this game. This trip, will represent for most of them their only chance to ever visit these islands and its treasures, "if you know what I mean". You know they have been fully complimented and accommadated with an overwhelming abundance of distrations since they stepped off the plane. And it will only continue until to game is over. How does one keep their young, horny ass, minds on a stupid game, which can only be reminding them of their fvcked up season.

6.The weather, I would have listed this as a higher advantage for the Warriors, had it been a bit more colder in Tuscaloosa. Just like how a team from a sunny state goes to play a team from a cold weather state. The same can be said about a team from a cold or lower temp. weather, surely being affected when they now have to play in warmer temperatures with high humidity. Alabama's home is 51 degress with a low of 27 degress. Hawaii is steadily at a high of 84 degrees and low of 73 degrees , but with high humidity of 79%. Dont forget last years game and how it affected Alabama. It was predicted that this weather would be a factor for Alabama. And sure enough, by mid 3rd Quarter, RB Williams and QB Watts were constantly gasping for air. This year though, they may get a break, as it is scheduled to rain some, which should cool the temp. alittle. But their is still that dam humidity, they must deal with.

7. Alabama may be already running on empty as far as energy and emotions for this game. One reason being that this is diffinately a step down for them. The SEC is also 4-0 against WAC teams this year. But I think more so, it is because they just left everything they had on the field at Auburn. This was a very disappointing an emotional loss against their arch rivals, inwhich they fought hard all game long only to fall short by a score of 28-23. They could be just going through the motions today.

8. These lasts edges, I feel may have a part in determining the outcome of the game, but I feel that they together create stronger situational edges for the Warriors , then if depended upon alone by themselves.

A. The Revenge Factor, Hawaii knows how close they came last year to upsetting this team and they are hungry to get payback.
B. Alabama will lack the support of their fans in this ball game as only approx. 3200 fans made this years trip, as compared to the almost 10,000 fans that came last season.
C. This years Alabama team is just simply a weaker version then that of last years 10 win team. And the Warriors are much stronger this year than last.
D. Last game for the Tide this season, and they are more focused of having a vacation, then on playing a game.

Well, I think that I will stop here, and let everyone else add or subtract to this list, their own advantages or disadvantages to which ever side they will follow today. One main factor here and there are others, but this is probably the most important, is if QB Timmy Chang will be able to minimize his turnovers today. If he does this, then with his ability to light it up, along with 5 very active receivers who all have 400+ yards on the season, at his disposal, he will definately be able to guide this Warrior squad to one of their biggest victories in school history. I feel, that an added plus in this game for Hawaii, will also the ability to utilize backup QB Weldon who is more than capable of running this Offense without skipping a beat. Thus, if he is called on to lead the Offense, Weldon will bring the benefit of another player who is able to run for big yardage, something Chang is forbidden to do.

So, to close this off, if Alabama or anyone else thinks this game rides on the sole shoulders of QB Timmy Chang, they will be surprised that this is no longer the case, for this already potent Hawaii Offense. A poor day for Chang, could mean a great day for Weldon. On the other hand, a great day for Chang, means only one thing, a victory for the Warriors and another loss for Alabama. Either way, this game I see will end up being a proud victory for the Warriors, and I wouldn't be surprised if it comes along by way of double digits. Good Luck all and Alooooooooooha, CC.

Result: (EZ 37-28 Outright Dog Winner on HAWAII!)

*Note: This game like most of my "BGPs" was capped out perfectly and the end result was a BIG EZ GOY WINNER for all who got on it...Aloha CC.

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FYI: Another EZ-"BIG GAME PLAY"-GOY WINNER that was release to everyone completely complimentary, and it didnt disappoint...

**Co-Captain** · 09-04-2005, 09:14 AM

-Posted: 9/11/2004 4:52:00 PM (Cover*)

"BIG GAME PLAY"-GAME OF THE WEEK on:

LA TECH -5.5 (EZ 38-21 WINNER!)

-Well this one had the makings of a showdown between two of the nations best RB's, Nevada's Kretschmer(1,162 , 4.2 ypc) vs La Tech's Moats(1300 , 6.5 ypc) both on the Doak Walker list...But due to recent knee surgury, it looks like Nevada's Star RB Kretschmer will be missing this "Pound Em and Ground Em" Party...Not good news for this Nevada team that is already dealing with the loss of several other key players to start the year.

Nonetheless, even with or without Kretschmer in the lineup, I still have to side with La Tech in this one, primarily because of the fact that they are returning their entire HUGE O Line from last year...and Nevada's weakness this year, on the defensive side, will be on the D Line, where they will need to replace the outstanding combo from last years DL in Cordova and Kennard, who combined for 22 sacks the most of any duo in the country last year...Huge advantage for La Tech up front on Offense...

Also making matters worse for this Nevada defense is the further loss of some key players in the secondary...Starting CB Rodney Landingham(dismissed from team)...starting CB Marlon McLaughlin(quit)...starting SS Ekene Agwuenu and backup FS Kevin Ernst left team with career ending injuries..

Nevada's only advantage I see in this game is that they will return two QB's in Rowe(back from inj) and Heiser(2,294, 50%, 13 TDs, 12 ints) but both will be working without 3 of their top 4 WR's from last season, who averaged 17, 22.8, and 15 ypc last year...and this has got to hurt the "Air Wolf" attack a bit this season, especially if RB Kretschmer is not in top form.

La Tech was harder hit at the QB spot where they must now replace QB Luke McCown who finished his career as the 5th most prolific passer in NCAA history last year....as well as, the lost of highly touted Oklahoma transfer Brent Rawls due to academic ineligibility...Still, they do have two upper class QB's to step in to a system they know....Junior QB Matt Kubick has the most time in the system and gets the nod at starting this year...but La Tech also has another Junior QB in Donald Allen, who is the most mobile and has the biggest arm of the QBs, that was just edged out for the top spot...Still, he should share playing time with Kubick this season.

Still, no matter who is at the helm for this La Tech squad, they both will have the advantage of playing behind a huge veteran OL, and as we seen so far in this years games with newbie QBs, having a veteran OL to work behind is a big advantage that helps them with their transitions and makes up a bit for their inexperience...Also, having a Stud RB like Moats in the backfield will definately take a lot of the responsibilities off of their young shoulders...This is also a Big plus for La Tech.

Other pluses which could pay out huge dividends for this La Tech running game and new QBs is that La Tech also returns their two deep WR threats from last season in Davis(18.6 ypc) and Franklin(16.7 ypc)...Enough cant be said about having such deep threats to help stretch the field and keep opponents secondary honest, not allowing them to creep up at will to provide run support...This should give La Tech's Moats good opportunities to break out big runs, and that will then sets up the everso deadly play action pass...But again, this all starts at the line of scrimmage and clearly La Tech with its veteran O Line has the advantage there..

Last season La Tech's defense was one of the worst, if not the worst, in the NCAA, but they were still able to beat last years talented Wolfpack squad in Reno 42-34...This years Defense returns 8 starters and with the hiring of new DC Tim Rose who will bring in a new 3-4 system for the Bulldogs...the Defense around its strengths at the LB position, most notably Sr LB and leading tackler Byron Santiago, should definately improve upon last seasons performances...This year, Nevada's big weakness will be on their O Line where they only return 2, and this should also help La Tech's new scheme on defense to hold that Wolfpack Offense in check a lot better than it did in last years game.

Bottom line for me in this one is that Nevada is a bit undermanned in this one both on Offense and Defense with the absence of some of their key players, either due to injury or other circumstances, giving this Bulldog squad more of an edge it already has on both sides of the ball...Whomever dictates the line of scrimmage usually controls the game and wins, and La Tech will definately have the advantage in this one on the Offense and a more than optimum chance on the Defensive side with 8 returning starters and a new scheme designed to stop the bleeding of last season...RB Moats will be the biggest star in this game both running and catching, and Nevada without its star RB in the the lineup will surely feel his absence today....No Kretschmer, loss of top 3 WRs, loss of key Def Sec players, and a rebuilt OL and DL for the Wolfpack, not to mention playing on the road, should equal a loss today...Bulldogs win this one in solid fashion...Take the Bulldogs as my first "BIG GAME PLAY"--PLAY OF THE WEEK selection.

On a side note:

-La Tech Coach Jack Bicknell knows that he must get this one in a Big Way and in a dominating way in order for his kids to gain as much confidence and momentum needed for them to face what is ahead (at Miami, at Tenn, Fresno St, and at Auburn)...This game is an important game for the psyche of his team and I expect that he will treat it as such.

-This one is also being aired on National TV so I give the home team more of an advantage being at home in this one.

-If the rains come down today, which weather report is saying it shouldnt...still if it does, the advantage then definately will side with La Tech and their running game, especially with Nevada's RB Kretschmer out of the mix to take advantage of the rain and make up for the soggy Wolfpack passing game which should result...

*This indepth Write-Up that was provided with my "BIG GAME PLAY" reflected a perfectly capped out side winner on La Tech...More times than not, these Write-Ups will provide you an accurate, or near accurrate, account of what is to occur, as well as, provide you with a lot of info, insights, etc...all backing why this game qualified as a "BIG GAME PLAY" selection...

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FYI: This was the second complimentatry "BIG GAME PLAY" that I had released to everyone in the CFB Forums...The result was yet another EZ WINNER for you all to enjoy...

**Co-Captain** · 09-04-2005, 09:17 AM

Posted: 9/19/2004 9:56:09 AM (Cov)

"BIG GAME PLAY"--NFL PLAY OF THE WEEK On:

Denver -3 (EZ 34-24 WINNER!)

-The Mile High City should be Rockin Big Time as Denver opens its season against their AFC West rival the Kansas City Chiefs at Invesco Field tonight...The last time the Chiefs came to Denver they were handily demolished by the score of 45-27...Besides this lopsided score in last years game, the result being a loss to KC is something which has been regularly occurring for the past few years in Denver...In fact, the Chiefs has not won in Denver since the 2000 season and now has currently lost their last 3 in a row in the Mile High City.

Besides this strong history that the Broncos has vs the Chiefs at home in recent years, I like their chances even more so tonight because of several "KEY FACTORS" that will be existing in this game and which gives the Broncos additional advantages to extending there record to 4-0 vs their rival in their House...

KEY FACTOR #1 : Last year, the Chiefs came into this game possessing the NFL's # 1 scoring Offense, behind RB Holmes, QB Green, and his talented WR and TE corp...This year, their WR and TE corp has been hit hard by the injury bug during the pre-season...Everyone one, except WR/KO return man Dante Hall and rookie WR Smith, were at one time or another injured and missed valuable practice time with the Offense, most importantly with QB Green...

-Starting WR Boerighter (knee) is out...and starting WR Morton (achilles), although probable for this game tonight, has only returned to the practice field this week after being out for more than a month...Another big hit to the passing game is the lost of TE Wilson(broken leg) for a good part of the year...TE's Gonzales and Dunn, as well as, backup WR Kennison all missed practice time during the pre-season due to injuries....But they will be playing tonight...

The missing of practice time could be a huge problem, especially for QB Green as timing with his WRs is something that can only be achieved with a lot of practice....Also important, an achieved with practice time between the QB and WRs, is the ability to be on the same page, which is important in order to automatically and instinctively communicate without speaking a word...This valuable missed practice time takes away from the smooth transition between QB and WRs/TEs, and without the timing and kinks being worked out, may result in wrong routes by WRs, and lack of passing accuracy by the QB...The Chiefs passing Offense will definately not be completely in smooth working order because of the injuries they suffered, and making matters worst is the fact that they will have try and get this timing down during the game and with a defender in their faces....Because of this, I see this years stronger Bronco secondary with CB Bailey and SS Lynch in the lineup having a decided advantage...

KEY FACTOR #2 : Last season, this Chiefs defense was ranked # 30 in run defense...This year, they hired Defensive Coach Gunter Cunningham to try and stop the bleeding...It is not that easy for a team to learn a new defensive scheme and it will take some time and games before they will be able to effectively run the new system....

Problem for the Chiefs...is that they will have to be learning and playing in this new defensive system without its top middle LBs in Mitchell(ankle) and Maslowski(knee) both of whom will be missing this one...This is another Big negative for the Chiefs as the Broncos possess one of the leagues best OL and now have a RB in Griffen, who is Barry Sanders like in his running taking over the top RB spot...Not good news for the Chiefs on defense..

KEY FACTOR #3 : Last year the Chiefs had the 2nd leading scorer in NFL history kicking for them.....This year, the Chiefs has released the old yet dependable Morton Anderson and enter the season with two unproven kickers....Punter Cheek and PK Tynes has never appeared in a regular season NFL game...

This gives Denver another Big edge with their PK Elam at home, if this one turns out to be a kicking matchup...Note: 4 of the last 5 games between these two have been decided by 7 pts or less, and 15 of the last 17 games have been won by the team scoring last...FGs could be Huge in this one...Big advantage goes to Denver...

KEY FACTOR #4 : Denver under Coach Shanahan has done very well in their season openers, winning 7 of 9 home openers...and Denver has won and covered 9 of the last 10 when hosting a division foe...

Opening up the season strong and with a win is vitally important to many coaches like Shanahan...and being that it is against a division rival makes it all that much more important...Big advantage goes to Denver as this one is at home in their House.

Bottom line for me, is that Denver should again take care of the Chiefs at home like they have been doing the past several years...But this year with all the Chiefs inpending problems it may have in the passing game and due to the fact that the Broncos have revamped their defensive squad with some key secondary and DL acquisitions, should make it easier for them to be able to focus completely on shutting down the running of Holmes....If he goes, then the Chiefs Offense will follow...I also like the Broncos Big here because of the fact that the Chiefs, beside having the dangerous Dante Hall on the special teams, will be relying on unproven Punter and more risky, an unproven PK...and Mile High in Primetime is not an easy place to start in their first NFL game.....The Broncos win this one in solid fashion again this year and take the lead over their rival in the race for the division title....Take the Broncos as a "BIG GAME PLAY"--PLAY OF THE WEEK selection!....Aloha CC.

Note: in this game, all my KEY FACTORS came into play and was the main reason for this "BGP" providing yet another EZ Winner ...Stay tune for more to come in the future...GL and Aloha CC.

**Co-Captain** · 09-04-2005, 09:19 AM

Posted: 9/25/2004 12:21:45 PM

"BIG GAME PLAY"--CONF USA GOM selection on:

TCU -10 (LOSE SU in OT)

-This will be S Florida's 2nd straight road game this week and they will certainly find out that Fort Worth is just as unfriendly and tough place to play as it was in SC last week....The Horn Frogs are 2-0 in their House so far this year, and are coming back home off of an embarrassing 70-35 loss to instate rival TT....S Florida is coming into this one also off of an embarrassing loss at the hands of the SC Gamecocks, where they were pasted 34-3, but this situation today greatly favors the Horn Frogs in this game...I will keep this simple and simply state several Advantages that TCU has over this S Florida Bull's team which should result in the Horn Frogs getting another solid win at home today...

Advantage #1: The Horn Frogs have an Offense that can score a lot of points, either running it or passing it...Currently they possess the 11th ranked Total Offensive Unit in the nation...averaging 467 ypg and 42.3 ppg in their last 3 games...A major reason for this TCU squad being so potent so early in the season, is due to them returning 8 starters on the Offensive side of the ball, which include two very capable QB's to run the Offense...The Horn Frogs also return their Top Two RBs and 4 of their 5 Top WRs from last season...But a big plus TCU has is that they also return the majority of their O-Line, who are very big, experienced, and has a lot of depth...In fact, this could easily be the best O-Line unit in the Conference this year, and a big reason for TCU's finding continued success on the ground and through the air this season....

S Florida, on the other hand, Offensively ranks 9th worst in the Nation in Total Offense averaging just 234 ypg, after two games...and its Passing Offense is one of the worst in the nation ranking 3rd to the bottom in this category with only 102 ypg...S Florida's woes on the Offensive side of the ball is very evident in their point production where they are currently one of the lowest scoring teams in the nation averaging just 12 ppg, with no TD's through the air...Last week vs SC, the Bulls Offense could only get 8 first downs, 80 yards on the ground, and just 11 yards through the air...They were 2-13 on 3rd downs and wasn't able to get inside of South Carolina's Red Zone at all...WOW!

The strength of this Bull Offense is in its experienced O-Line which returns in tact...but their big weakness is in their skilled positions, especially at the QB position where no one player has solidified a strong hold on running the team...Last year, both QB's for the Bulls had playing time with QB Banks taking the majority of the snaps, but they both were equally inefficient in passing and both averaged in the mid to high 40% completion rates....This year, it seem that they are continuing to struggle moving it through the air and that should spell trouble, especially on the road vs a potent Offense like the Horn Frogs possess...

Advantage #2: This ineffectiveness in the Bulls passing game is a big advantage for TCU who has currently struggled at defending the pass, ranking dead last in the nation in Pass Defense, giving up an average of 382.7 ypg and 9 TD's so far on the year...Still, eventhough this Horn Frog pass defense has been shredded, you have to also remember that it was vs TT's #1 ranked Passing Offense and NW's #8 ranked Passing Offense...and this Bull squad even on their best day, is nowhere near as potent as either of these teams through the air....Plus, TCU's secondary was able to get 5 picks so far in three games and they should have an easier time against this S Florida team that must find replacements for their Top Two WRs from last year, as well as, for their best all-around player in Fisher who was moved from WR to starting RB this season....Helping the Horn Frog secondary's cause as well, is the poor ratio that both of the Bulls QBs have...Last year, they combined for 11 TDs but also threw 11 Ints....So far this year no TD's has come via the air..

Advantage #3: The Horn Frogs still will have one of the best Defenses against the run in the Conference this year....So far, the Horn Frogs have only allowed 81.7 ypg on the ground this year...The Bulls on Offense will definately utilize the run more as they are averaging 132.5 ypg so far...This is where they are getting the most production, but it is still way below the norm...and without a dangerous threat to attack this TCU secondary through the air, it definately will give the Horn Frog's a Big advantage at stacking the line to stop the Bulls and RB Fisher on the ground...No competent balance attack or any real deep threat from S Florida's Offense, plays right into the strength of the Horn Frogs and gives them the advantage of controling the line of scrimmage when on Defense today.

Advantage #4: Both teams come into this one with banged up starting QB's..QB.Gunn(ribs) for TCU and QB Julmiste(knee)...but TCU will have the luxury of going to QB Brandon Hasell who started the majority of the games last season after Gunn went down to injury...QB Hassell last year throw for over 2,000 yards in 9 games, which is more than both of S Florida's QBs yardage from last year put together...Hassell is also the more accurate passer of the two hitting 62.5% of his passes w/ 3 TDs and no Ints....and he will also bring to this TCU Offense another threat in running the ball, as last year he was TCU's 3rd leading rusher with 369 yards and 5 TDs...If Hassell is called to take the snaps in place of the injured Gunn today...I dont expect any type of drop off from the Offensive point productions as both Gunn (32.1 ppg) and Hassell (31.7 ppg) as you can see, when starting, has averaged similar point totals per game...Lastly, QB Hassell as a starter last year is a solid 7-2...This is QB Hassell's last season at TCU, so I have to expect that he will also make the most of it starting with todays game...

Advantage #5: Another big advantage for TCU in this game will be in their WRs vs this S Florida inexperienced back 7....TCU this year in the WR position is loaded as they return 4 of their top 5 WRs from last year...with 3 of them averaging over 15.8, 15.9, and 17.4 ypc last season...This WR corp also has a deep veteran backup unit to complement almost every spot...

The Bulls strength on Defense is upfront, but their notable weakness this year will be in their back 7...where there is only two starters that return and no experience whatsoever from the reserves stepping in...Last year the Bulls Defense all around was solid, but this year the loss of many key players from last years squad is starting to show its effect...Last week vs SC 53rd ranked Total Offense they allowed 356 yards through the air and 174 yards on the ground...Not looking to good going up against this Horn Frog Offense ranked 11th in Total Offense in the nation..

Minor Advantages: (these alone are not as strong, but together they add up to provide TCU with many more situational advantages for them to enjoy over S Florida today.)

-TCU, like almost every position on the Offense, has a solid tandem RB combo to go to in this one..with the return of star RBs Merrill(1,107 , 5.5 ypc, 4 TDs) and solid backup RB Hobbs (659 , 3.9 ypc, 9 TDs).

-S Florida missed valuable game experience when their game with Pitt was postponed due to the hurricane.

-S Florida also missed out on some much needed practice time due to the hurricanes..

-S Florida had to practice for both of TCU's QBs because of the uncertainty of whether TCU's starting QB Gunn would play or not....

This is not an easy thing at all to do and does add extra work for their defense to have to prepare for...This can cause a lot of confusion for the defense as these QB's have somewhat different styles of play..

-This will be TCU's last home game until November 20...so I am expecting a full all out effort and focus from the Horn Frogs.

-Last year the Horn Frogs took this Bull squad lightly and almost got upset, winning by only 3 pts...So I am expecting them this year to not take them for granted....and that should spell trouble for this Bulls team in Fort Worth...

I am looking for TCU to come out very upset at last weeks performance and want to again establish their dominant presence in the Conf with a solid win....What better team, right now, to bouce back on then vs this struggling S Florida team today....S Florida has been seriously struggling of late as they are trying to find a QB to take over, as well as, trying to find other new key position players to step up and fill the voids left by last years team...Today in Fort Worth is not the place to come in stubbling or filled with uncertainties...especially since this Horn Frog team on Offense has been lighting up its opponents who come to their House....Take TCU as a "BIG GAME PLAY"--rated as a Conf USA Game of the Month Selection.

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*Note: This game was rare loss with my "BIG GAME PLAYS" ....TCU had many chances to put the game away, but made many costly mistakes, and S Florida to advantage of them, playing an excellent game overall which was not expected at all...The Bulls played the game with a Championship effort and they deserved to win this game that day, sorry to say...Aloha CC.

**Co-Captain** · 09-04-2005, 09:22 AM

FYI: After lossing a rare "BIG GAME PLAY" last week, I come back on Thursday with another "BGP" which like those of the past provided me and all who follow these Bad Boys another Solid WINNER!..."BIG GAME PLAYS"= BIG TIME $$$.....Believe That!

"BIG GAME PLAY"--BIG EAST CONF GAME OF THE WEEK ON:

UCONN -6 (buy .5pt) (29-17 WINNER!)

This is a big night for the Husky Football program as they get to showcase their team and its star QB, as well as, their new Rentschler Field Stadium in tonights nationally televised game vs the Pitt Panthers who will definately be looking to ruin their party.

To beat the Huskies tonight, Pitt will have to successfully accomplish TWO KEYS FACTORS, which so far only BC was able to do vs UCONN....One of them is to stop the Huskies passing game...and other is to run the ball effectively on them...I feel that Pitt will NOT be able to achieve these TWO KEY FACTORS tonight, due to their current weaknesses on the offensive and defensive side of the ball playing right into the Huskies strengths...I used the Huskies only loss to BC to illustrate the TWO KEY FACTORS that BC used to beat UCONN...Then I followed it up by explaining why Pitt will fall short on achieving them in tonights game.

KEY FACTOR #1: (Stopping the Huskies passing game)...Trying to stop UCONN's star QB Orlovsky will be to BIG of a task for this Panther Defense tonight...The Sr Star QB is not just your average QB, he is one of the nations elite QBs and have been racking up a lot of quality stats and wins to back this up...So far this year, he has lead UCONN's Passing Offense to a #8 national ranking, while also acquiring rankings in the top 15 in passing effeciency and in total Offense nationally...In his first 4 games this year, he is averaging 288.2 yards per game passing and has thrown 9 TDs....He is also averaging an impressive 69% completion rate, and leads all Big East QB's with 1,153 total yards through the air.(QB Orlovsky 23-43 for 238 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT)

-BC was able to slow down Orlovsky mainly by keeping him off the field with their ball controlling style of Offensive, which proved to be to strong and balanced for the Huskies defensive unit to stop...This ability of BC to control the games momentum and speed allowed their Defense, for one, to remain fresh to attack UCONN's Offense continuously and effectively,....and second, and more importantly, it prevented Orlovsky from getting his Offensive into a steady rythum all night long....BC's style and personal on Offense, primarily its O-Line and RB's, was the perfect type of power Offense that causes a lot of problems for Defenses like UCONN...Thus BC was able to control the line of scrimmage, opening up holes for the running game, which then opened up opportunities for them to use their play action pass...BC's offensive style is not equiped to get into a shootout with UCONN...but because BC strengths was in running the ball effectively on them, it enabled the Golden Eagles to dictate the tempo of the game based on their style and not UCONN's.

-Working also in BC's favor that night was in their secondary play, as that is where the strength of their Defense lies...That Eagle Secondary, which some believe to be the best in the Big East, was able to hold Orlovsky to just 193 passing yards, and intercepted him once late in the game...which was Key to putting their Offense back on the field and again not allowing Orlovsky to gain momentum with another scoring drive....Instead, BC's running game was again able to run effectively on the Huskies eating up the clock and later providing another TD to secure the victory.

-Pitt, I dont believe will be able to duplicate what BC did on Defense primarily because the Panther's weakness, on Defense, is in the Secondary...Last week this weakness showed as Pitts secondary gave up 282 yards through the air vs Div 1 AA Furman...This is definately not a good sign, going up against this potent UCONN passing game that gained over 300 yards last weeks vs Army...Also not good news for this Panther secondary is the fact that Orlovsky this year has connected with 10 different receivers, with 4 of them ranking in the top 15 in the Conf, and all with catches in the DDs .(9 different players caught passes for UCONN tonight, totalling 238 yards, and 1 TD)

-Pitt's biggest disadvantage in the secondary will be in the CB positions....where they have lost their two top flight corners from last years team in Spencer (2nd rd draft pick) and Ferguson...This year Pitt has filled those CB positions with two Freshmans in Revis and Phillips (RS Freshman and True Freshman)....Oh Boy!...These young CBs lack of experience will hurt them in this game vs the Huskies talented and experienced SR and JR WRs...Posing another Big challenge for the Panthers Defense in this game, is the fact that they have yet to face a Pro-style Offense like what UCONN runs, meaning that their two Freshman's will be tested a hell of a lot tonight...HUGE advantage to Orlovsky and his WRs tonight...(WR Henry 7 catches for 86 yrds and 1 TD, WR Cutaia 3 catches for 52 yrds)(Henry and Cutaia #1 & #2 in rec yards tonight.)

-Yet another problem hindering the Panthers attempts at stopping Orlovsky is up front where they have been weak in pass rushing...So far this year the Panthers have ONLY recorded 3 QB sacks, only one last week vs Furman....A big problem last year was Pitt's inability to apply a strong pass rush, and this allowed teams to pick their team apart through the air...Based on their current stats, it seems that they are again struggling to get and apply pressure to the opposing QB's...and this inability to apply a strong pass rush to Orlovsky, who is a drop back passer, could spell disaster for Pitt's young secondary..(UCONN'S O-LINE allowed NO SACKS tonight, and held Pitt's pass rush in check all night, giving QB Orlovsky a lot of time in the pocket.)

*KEY FACTOR #2: (Can Pitt Run effectively on the Huskies tonight?) The Second Key Factor to beating UCONN tonight is being able to establish the run against them...Can Pitt effectively run the ball and control the tempo of the game, in the process keeping Orlovsky and that Husky Offense off the field...like BC succeeded in doing...I say they wont find success doing that tonight, and some reason for this is listed below.(Pitt's Run Offense only rushed for 81 yards on 34 attempts, 2.4 ypc, 1 TD tonight.) note: QB Palko responsible for 48 yards on 15 QB scrabbles.

-In their loss, BC was able to pound the ball effectively all night long behind their Big solid O-Line which overpowered UCONN's smaller unit upfront....The Golden Eagles through effectively running the ball was also able to control the clock, dictate the games tempo, and open up passing opportunities, not to mention pounding out 162 yards and TD in the process.

-Hmmm, this sounds like an easy thing for Pitt to do, Right?....Well, as Lee Corso likes to says, "not so fast my friend"....Not so fast is right!...In fact, not so productive is more like it....This year Pitt's running game has almost been totally non-existant...Pitt, in its first 3 games, has ONLY been able to average 99 yards per game on the ground and a measely 2.5 ypc, while scoring just 2 TDs....Pitt's Run Offense is currently ranked as the 10th worst in the nation and last in the Big East....Not Good News.(Pitt rushed for only 81 yards, 2.4 ypc tonight.)

-The Huskies style of Defense is to use an eight man fronts, so running against them will be even more harder a task for Pitt's struggling Run Offense to do....This defensive scheme, by the Huskies, is mainly used to beat your running game and put you in long yards and passing situations...This scheme didn't work effectively against BC primarily because of their solid O-Line and solid running game..simply overpowered UCONN's players upfront, which then made their Defense suseptable to their play action pass...UCONN's secondary was caught biting to stop the run first several times and this allowed BC's QB to hit big pass plays that kept the chains moving for the Eagles...BC's play action worked perfectly, because of they ran the ball effectively and the O-Line winning the battles in the trenches..(UCONN's 8 man fronts shut down Pitt's run game allowing only 81 yards and 2.4 ypc on the ground tonight.)

-The Panthers will not be so successful as BC was, mainly due to their main weakness on Offense, is on the O-Line..Whereas BC's strength on Offense was in their O-Line....This year the Panther's only return 2 starters from last years squad...Last season, the Panther's O-Line gave up a whopping 43 sacks, and struggled a lot in opening up holes for the running game...Based on the Panthers rushing stats so far this year, I say that it is still evident that the O-Line is struggling again with opening up holes for its RBs...This is not good news for this Panther squad that cannot depend like last year on the talent of their Key players to make big plays and keep them in the game....This year, they dont have that luxury....so not being able to effectively run the ball will definately cause problems in them effectively setting up the play action and the big pass plays downfield.....Pitt's O-Line is clearly not achieving this and vs a team like UCONN should make them totally reliant again, like they have been, on their Soph QB Palko, who btw is no Rutherford...No running game today from Pitt will play right into the plans of the Huskies tonight..(Pitt's Weakness on Offense their O-Line failed to open up holes for the running game, and provided QB Palko poor pass protection all night long.)

-So far this year this Husky Defense, which returned 7 starter from last years squad, have only been allowing 100 yards per game on the ground, just 2.7 ypc, and gave up just 2 TDs..They also have only allowed an average of 247.8 total yards per game, and is currently ranked 29th in the nation in total Defense...Solid! (Husky Defense held Pitt to 81 yards on the ground, 2.4 ypc, 1 TD tonight.)

MINOR KEYS FACTORS- which should work in UCONN's favor as well tonight:

-This will be Pitts 1st road game of the year and it will be in a very hostile environment tonight.

-Pitt is playing its 4th game in 19 days...

-UCONN leads the Big East in Pass Defense allowing only 145 yards a game..

-Pitt's terrible running game, puts all of he pressure on it QB Palko..making Pitt almost one dimensional on Offense.(non-existant running game, made Pitt one dimensional all game long.)

-Tonights game will be on National TV and played in UCONN's new sold out Rentschler Field Stadium which should be rocking with energy and excitment all night long..(Crowd was loud and energetic all night long, causing Pitt's Offense to be penalized several times.)

-UCONN's Defense is only allowing 49% completions..(Def allowed Pitt QB to complete only 35% of his passes)

-Pitt's Passing Offense only averaging 219 yards per game.

-This will be UCONN's 1st Big East home opener..

-This will be Pitt's new QB's first road game of his career.

In conclusion, I feel that Pitt lacks the answers on Defense to effectively stop UCONN's star QB Orlovsky from taking over this game (Key Factor #1) ...Pitt also lacks a necessary effective running game that is very important, for one, to prevent their Offense from becoming to one dimensional, and second, needed for them to effectively dictate the tempo of this game in their favor (Key Factor #2) ....In addition, we all know that UCONN is looking at this game as a Big game for them,...but I feel that Pitt, on the other hand, is not....Pitt knows it has been the a mainstay of this Conf and UCONN is simply another Div 1 AA team who moved up to play with the big boys...I am sensing that Pitt doesnt respect this UCONN team at all and is taking them lightly, and because of that, they wont be able to meet the level of motivation, focus, energy, and enthusiasm that UCONN will bring to this game, which could spell trouble for them, playing in this hostile territory....Last weeks OT win vs Furman, mixed in with Pitt having a short week to prepare for this game...makes me feel even more confident that UCONN is the more prepared team, who is also clicking on both sides of the ball right now....Struggling teams playing under the spotlight, on the road, and on National TV never find it easy to overcome their problems in these situations.....But, this type of situation is perfect for a hungrey and motivated home team looking for respect, to come out and play their best ball of the season....Tonight I see UCONN doing just that...This game will be UCONN's Big coming out party and they should roll to a solid win over this Panther team tonight.....

Take the Huskies all the way as a"BIG GAME PLAY"--BIG EAST CONF GAME OF THE WEEK SELECTION..... GO HUSKIES! ....GL to All and ALOHA CC.

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QUICK GAME RECAP:

Pitt failed to achieve KEYS FACTORS #1 and KEY FACTOR #2, just like I thought they would fail to do.... RESULT = "BIG GAME PLAY"--BIG EAST CONF GAME OF THE WEEK (29-17 WINNER!)

**Co-Captain** · 09-04-2005, 09:24 AM

"BIG GAME PLAY"--BIG EAST CONF REVENGE GAME OF THE MONTH selection on:

SYRACUSE -6 (41-31 WINNER!)

I had this one highlighted immediately after Rutgers defeated Mich St in their first game, and I am glad that this game is finally here...Syracuse has dominated these Knights over the years, winning 27 out of the last 34 games( 27-6-1) played between the two...But, last year Rutgers was able to smack the Cuse in their House by the score of 24-7, and in the process dashed the high hopes of the Orangeman at getting to Bowl game, one they have not played in since 2001 season...Even with the Cuse winning their last game, inwhich they demolished ND by 26 pts, it still couldnt get them in to a Bowl Game...as it was that loss to Rutgers that spoiled their chances...Because of this, I have to feel that some payback from the Cuse is definately in order and REVENGE is definately on their minds....But, I also feel that in addition to getting redemption from last years lost, the Cuse will want to send a message out to Rutgers, who btw was picked by many to finish 3 spots above Syracuse in this years Big East Conf, that their football program is not worthy of being ranked higher then they are...Today, Revenge and Respect will motivate this Cuse team to get this one big and in a bad way.

Ok now that I got that out of the way, here is what I see in this matchup giving Syracuse the edge over Rutgers in this Big East matchup....Todays game will definately showcase some very talented RBs from both teams...Reyes and Rhodes from Syracuse vs Hairston and Leonard from Rutgers...Still, in the end it will be the tandem of Reyes and Rhodes that will be the Major Keys to Syracuse being able to get its Offense rolling like they did against Cincy in their seasons opener in the Dome...And if you didnt know by now, Syracuse is a different animal in the DOME...Just ask teams like ND and BC who last year got smashed 38-12 and 39-14...or Cincy who lost 19-7 this year in the Dome.

*KEY #1 (Cuse's Tandem RBs): Syracuse has one of the nation's top backs in RB Reyes, in its back field, who will definately be playing on Sundays after this season is over....But this year, they get back their other talented RB in Rhodes who was out most of last year with an injury....giving Syracuse one of the best tandem RBs combos in the nation this year...Having two slid RBs this year, has allowed Syracuse the opportunity to open up its Offense by utilizing both of them in its schemes...and not just depending completely on star Sr RB Reyes....RB Rhodes presence helps to not only take a lot of the pressure off of Reyes, who carried the majority of the load last year, but it helps to transfer in the process more pressure on to their opponents Defenses...Who last year, simply keyed in on shutting down Reyes...

So far Rhodes is having a productive season both running and catching, and his pressence in the backfield along side Reyes forces teams to now play more disciplined defense...His presence also gives the Cuse's Offense another weapon they can use...which so far, they have been as Rhodes is second on the Offense in receiving and second in rushing behind Reyes...But probably the biggest benefit that Rhodes brings to the Offense is the chance for Reyes to take breaks inorder to remain fresh for the entire game, while at the same time not sacraficing any offensive production out of their backfield...This was definately something that wasnt possible last year for Reyes or this Cuse Offense, and it caught up to them in some close games last year...

This year, the one two punch from Syracuse's tandem backfield has not really done to much against quality opponents like Purdue and Virginia, but it did show its effectiveness against lesser opponents like Cincy in their game at home in the Dome...In that game vs Cincy, Rhodes rushed for 88 yards on 11 carries (8.0 ypc), and led the team with 3 catches totaling 86 yards, with one catch for a 68 yard TD...Reyes, on the other hand, complemented Rhodes by rushing for 119 yards (5.0 ypc) and also scoring a TD...In total, Rhodes and Reyes pounded the Cincy Defense for 227 yards on the ground leading to a solid 19-7 victory in the Dome...Outstanding!

Today, I can easily see Rhodes ( 206 yards, 5.7 ypc, and 2 TDs) and Reyes (292 yards, 3.7 ypc, 2 TDs) being able to duplicate or even better that output they had vs Cincy...as I dont feel that this #5 ranked Run Defense of Rutgers will be that successful in holding this quality backfield of the Cuse in check like they have done vs Mich St, NH, and Kent...all of whom doesn't have any big stars in their backfield, except for Kent and their QB Cribbs, who btw rushed for 139 yards and passed for 311 yards against them on his own...Plus, another reason for this great Run Defensive stat is because all of Rutgers opponents have been airing it out on them a lot more than keeping it on the ground...This year, Rutgers obvious weakness on Defense is in its Pass Defense where they are giving up an average of 322 yards per game...270 yards to Mich St, 385 yards, 75% completion rate, and 5 TDs to NH's RS Freshman QB Santos, and lastly 311 yards to Kent's QB Cribbs....WOW!

Now I know that Syracuse's Offense, mainly its Passing Offense, with its new QBs hasnt been lighting anyone up through the air, but QB Patterson (39 for 67, 422 yards, and 1 TD) has been steadily increasing his efficiency in his last two games completing 62.5% vs Cincy and then completing 65% of his passes vs that top notch Defense of Virginia....What will help Syracuse's Offense is their decision to finally stick with using one QB instead of giving both of them playing time...QB Patterson, the better of the two QBs, will now be able to run the Offense entirely and this should help out a lot with Syracuse finding more consistency and production out of its Offense...Furthermore, this poor and extremely porous Pass Defense of the Knights ( ranked 114th in Pass Defense) should also allow him to possibly have one of his best games of the season, as everything for him to accomplish this appears to be working in his favor today....Rhodes and Reyes will create many opportunities for Syracuse's Offense to get on a solid roll like it had in their last game at home vs Cincy, and with Rutger's Defense bent on controlling those two, should open up the play action pass as well as other passing plays for big gains...Syracuse's top WR Jones (13 rec, 161 yards), and main target of Patterson, should also have a possible break out game vs this secondary...

Today I see Syracuse's balanced Offensive attack (134 ypg rushing, and 135.8 ypg passing) finding a lot of success with their secondary option(passing) having an big edge over the Knights main weakness(pass defense) and that should allow them to control the game with their balanced attack from start to finish.

*KEY #2 (Cuse Pass Defense): Syracuse's Defense has faced some Top Offenses in the Country so far this year...and beside giving up some big plays to Virginia and Purdue, Syracuse hasnt looked all that bad....This game vs Rutgers is an obvious step down in the quality of Offenses that they have faced, but Rutgers does possess some solid players in RB Leonard(leading rusher and receiver) and QB Hart (262 ypg passing, 60.5%)...Still, this game is now at home where Syracuse's Defense has always been known to give opposing Offenses a tough time...and where they take a lot of pride in protecting their turf, against all opponents.

Today, the Defense who after facing the bruising ground attack of Virginia (4th in Run Off) where they gave up a whopping 225 yards on the ground...should find things a lot more easier vs this Rutgers ground attack that is currently ranked 11th worst in the nation, ONLY averaging 104 yards per a game and ONLY 2.6 ypc so far this year...Because of their poor running game, Rutgers almost becomes one dimensional on Offense completely relying on their QB Hart to make up the difference through the air, and their FB Leonard to come up with big catches rather than long runs..

This reliance on Hart to move the ball today wont be as easy to do, like it was for Rutgers vs their last three opponents they faced this year...Syracuse's strength this year is in the Secondary where they have one of the best SS and FS combos in the league with Ferri (SS, 120 tackles last year) and Smith (FS, 106 tackles and 5 ints last year)...In Syracuse's last game at home vs Cincy's Sr QB Guidugli...the Cuse Secondary stepped up big intercepting him 4 times on the day and forced 6 TOs....They also only allowed QB Guidugli to pass for a total of 155 yards, just 55% completions, and only 1 TD...while sacking him twice and blocking one punt...Solid!

Another advantage that Syracuse Defense may have today could come as a result of Rutgers main weapon and leading rusher and receiver FB Leonard not being able to play due to a thigh injury he suffered in their last game vs Kent...He has missed a lot of practice because of this injury and his status is still unknown at this time...Still, even if he plays tonight, he most likely wont be at a 100% and this will surely affect Rutgers Offensive production both running and passing giving the Cuse an added advantage on Defense....Rutgers RB Hairstan is also alittle banged up, but he will have to carry the majority of the load tonight whether or not Leonard is in the lineup...

Today it is highly possible that Syracuse could have yet another dominant game on Defense like it had vs Cincy, especially if Rutgers Leonard is a no go...I also cant see this struggling Rutgers Offense finding much success today on the road and in the Dome...The Cuse's Dome mystiek will show its pressence again in this one today...

Other negative info on Rutgers Offensive production this year is that Rutgers has NOT been able to score a TD in the 2nd half of all their 3 games...In addition, Rutgers has also been outscored by their opponents 42-19, in all the second halves combined.

*KEY #3 (Cuse's Solid Special Teams): Syracuse today will definately have a BIG edge in the Special Teams area over Rutgers....SS Damond Ferri is averaging 32.0 yards per a kick off return which is 3rd best nationally....Syracuse also has the best tandem kickers in the Big East Conf with FG Kicker Barbers (2nd team All Big East last season) and with Punter Carney (2nd team All Big East last season)...

*Minor Keys, Info, stats, and trends- which also favors Syracuse in todays game against visiting Rutgers...

-Rutgers lost to Div 1 AA New Hampshire at home 24-35.

-This will be Rutgers first road game of the year..

-Cuse 7-1 SU and ATS in Big East openers

-Cuse a different team in the Dome..

-Cuse 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS vs Rutgers at home since 1992.

-Revenge game for Syracuse.

-Rutgers only 3-13 on the road under 4 year HC Schiano,...last year they were 2-4 defeating only Army and Temple.

-Rutgers also 3-10 in Big East openers since 1991.

-Rutgers star FB Leonard who leads them in rushing and receiving has a thigh inj and is listed as questionable for this game..

In conclusion...today I feel Syracuse will be able to get their REVENGE of last seasons loss to Rutgers which ended their Bowl chances....They will also be able to do this because they have the major Key Advantages in all 3 phase of the game on their side, and that will be hard for Rutgers to overcome ....Syracuse should also get this one just because of the simple fact that it is being played in the DOME where they play their best ball, while Rutgers on the road continuously struggle to win just like their basketball team does...Rutgers inconsistancy on Offense mixed in with their most productive player currently banged up, just adds that much more reasons to favor Syracuse Big.....Today, I see nothing but the Orangemen getting another solid win in the Dome....Take Syracuse as a "BIG GAME PLAY"--BIG EAST CONF REVENGE GAME OF THE MONTH selection!....

*Saturdays "BGP" Result: Syracuse 41-31 WINNER!

**Co-Captain** · 09-04-2005, 09:25 AM

"BIG GAME PLAY"--MNF GAME OF THE MONTH PLAY ON:

Green Bay Packers -3

Two playoff teams coming into this MNF game both on a 3 game slide and both standing at a disappointing 1-3 on the year, will definately want to end this trend tonight...Unfortunately though, only one team after its all said and done, will be able to get their season back on the winning track....while the other will feel the sting of yet another hit to their SB chances....Tonight, I am backing GB and their Monday Night Magic Man in Brett Farve to come out of this game with a solid victory...

Before I get to those KEY FACTORS and Situational Edges that I feel GB has on their side in this matchup vs Tenn....I want to address first that I am aware that both of these teams have been struggling on Offense and more so on the Defensive side of the ball...In addition, both teams MVP QB's in McNair and Farve are coming into this game still alittle banged up...Ok now that we are caught up on both teams current situations...I will list some Key Factors in this one which I feel that will give Farve and the Pack a greater decided advantage over McNair and hit Tenn Titans....These KEY FACTORS and edges should help with allowing GB to utilize and operate their gameplan more effectively which they will use to their advantage in this one and which should lead them to a much needed win..over Tenn tonight.

KEY FACTOR #1: (The Battle in the Trenches Part I) ....Part of the main reason to Tenn's struggles and inconsistancies on Offense, especially in the passing game, has been primarily due to the poor pass protection that McNair has been getting from his Big Uglies Unit (O-Line) this year...The O-Line so far has allowed 11 QB sacks and not effectively picked up blitzes and stunt packages by opponents headhunting to disrupt McNair's timing and rhythum...When McNair is given enough time, he can be deadly accurate with his passes as he will look to hit his main receiving targets....Opponents this year know that inorder to beat Tenn you must not let McNair beat you...and thus they have been putting the pressure on him more, which the O-Line hasnt been effectively preventing... The result of this failure by the O-Line is McNair's low stats, on the year so far, with just 489 passing yards, only 1 TD, with 2 Ints...Not good because McNair's backup Volek has more TD passes then him.

Today vs this GB Defense, Tenn O-Line will benefit a little because GB will be without its big NG Jackson.(knee) ...but his loss, to me, shouldnt affect GB's plans to utilize their blitzing schemes to pressure McNair or their plans to stack the box keying up on stopping Tenn's primary weapon of attack RB Brown...Last week SD was successful in holding Brown in check by keying up on him and it worked as Brown only gained 55 yards rushing and only 3.7 ypc...I have to believe that if SD's Defense is able to successfully stop Brown..this GB Defense should be able to do as well...GB's early season stats vs the run is not as stingent as last years was, but this squad still has its three top run stoppers on the D-Line, along with all 3 LB which was ranked #3 in run Def in the NFC last year...so they do have the players to do the job vs this Tenn Offensive squad....

Tonight, I see GB utilizing their blitzing packages just like they did against Carolina's O-Line that was weak in its pass protection and it paid off big for the Pack as they totally disrupted and pressured QB Delhomme all night long...which resulted in 2 sacks, 1 Int, and just 59% completions...GB vs this Tenn O-Line, who btw just lost their G Piller (bicep inj) in last weeks game vs SD, will just make matters worst for this Unit trying to plug up the holes...

KEY FACTOR #2: (Battle in the Trenches Part II) ....Now, on the other side of this one, we have GB's Big Uglies Unit which is possibly one of the Best Veteran OL Units in the League this year...This year they are showing their effectiveness in protecting their main man Farve, only giving up 3 sacks so far, which ranks them tops in pass protection along with only Denver and Indy's O-Line who also have only allowed 3 total sacks as well this year....

GB's solid O-Line pass protecting has also enabled the Pack to rank among the Top in the league in Passing Offense at #8 averaging 252.3 yards passing per game and a 62.0 % completion rate....QB Farve because of this protection has been able to also rank again, amongst the Top QB's in the league at #8 in QB rating with 92.9 and #8 in overall completion % with 64.3%....Solid!

Tonight, I cannot see any reason as to why this O-Line of GB will not dominate Tenn's front 7 in the trenches both in the passing game and especially in the running game...and the next Key Factors should further explain why I feel strongly about this happening...

KEY FACTOR #3: (GB's Solid Run Attack led by RB Green).....Besides the O-Line providing Farve the necessary time to pick apart opponents secondaries...the Pack also benefit from their solid play in run blocking, which should allow All Pro RB Green to be able to get this ground attack back on track vs the Titan's weakness on Def....which is stopping the Run....Yes, that is right!...The Titans Weakness on Defense is against the RUN....I guess, one can only say, "what a difference a year makes"....In fact, last year, the strength of the Titans Defense was its Run Defense, which they were also the Best in the league at allowing opponents only 80.9 yards per a game and 3.8 ypc....This year though is a completely different story..as the Titan's are giving up an average of 131.3 yards per a game (26th), and are currently allowing the most yards per carry in the entire league at 5.5 ypc....Holy Moly!
In Tenn's last 3 losses, they faced 3 solid running teams with All Pro RB's....Vs Indy, they allowed RB James to rush for 124 yards and 5.9 ypc....Vs the Jags, they allowed RB Taylor to rush for 81 yards and 4.8 ypc (team total of 136 rushing yards and 4.7 ypc given up to the Jags)....and last week Vs SD, they allowed RB Tomlinson to rush for 147 yards and a whopping 8.6 ypc...This is definately not good news, as they must now face the second best running back from last year tonight, in Green (1,883 yards on the ground last season), who will be operating behind the Best O-Line in the league this year....

The next Key Factor should explain also why things wont change overnight for this Titan team and why GB will have the best opportunity between the two to come out on top tonight...

KEY FACTOR #4: (Tenn's Team Injuries)....First off, the Titans Top ranked Defense from last year isnt all there...and the losses of Kearse and Smith from the DL to free agency has weakened this team upfront more than they expected...Teams this year are aware of their departure and are now attacking areas where these two once dominated....Making matters worst though, is the injuries to several players has led the Titans to have to rely on playing 3 other new starters, 2 of them at the LB positions....The Titan's heavy reliance on their Rookies upfront in DE LaBoy and Odom, tackle Starks, and LB Reynolds aren't helping matters for them....In fact, their pressence has been the main point of attack by teams with solid running games and solid O-Lineman like Indy, Jack, and SD has, and they exploited the Titans obvious weakness on Defense to its extent....Tonight should be no different for the Pack ground attack, as I see them as well totally attack straight at these newbies and rookies all night long...

More Rookies and new players, means more missed assignments and mistakes...and playing under the bright lights of Monday Night Football simply wont make it any easier for these rookies making their first ever debut on MNF, not to mention, their first experience playing at historic Lambeau Field...

Noteble injuries for the Titans on Def are: LB Boiman (knee), LB Sirmon, LB Calmus (back)...also DT Haynesworth (ankle) is banged up and is listed as questionable for this one..huge loss upfront if he cant go tonight....Starting FS Schulters (foot) is out.

Stopping the run for the Titan's isnt though their only concern this year...They have also given up 84 points in their 3 game losing streak, because they are not able to keep opponents in their Red Zone out of the endzone....This year, the Def has allowed their opponents inside their 20, eleven times...9 of which resulted in a TD...The Titans are currently the leagues worst Def in the RZ allowing 81.8% scoring.

The Titan's Offense also has been suffering due to injuries, especially to their receiving corps...Top TE target Kinney (calf inj) is out....and so is WR Calico (knee)....In fact, only two of Tenn's top 4 WR's have played in a combined two games this year...Currently the Titan's have only 4 healthy receivers on the roster...and this lack of key targets has hurt this Offense, especially in the scoring department...

This year the Titans are only scoring an average of 15.7 pts per game....compared to last year where they averaged 27.18 pts per game...The Titan's are last in the league in passing average...They also rank in the bottom third in total yards per game and passing yards per game....Also, the Titan's this season, has only scored one TD in the 1st Q....Making matters worst, is that QB McNair is still not 100%....Not good at all!

A total of 7 Titan starters have gone down to injury, with 3 of them lost for the year.

Minor KEY FACTORS: including stats, trends, info, etc...which favor GB as well in tonights game...

-Tenn hasnt played well on Monday Night road, as they are just 1-5 ATS.

-Tenn also struggle vs NFC North teams posting a 1-6 ATS mark.

-GB is solid on MNF w/ a 9-2 ATS record..

-GB is also a perfect 5-0 ATS at home vs AFC opponents.

-Play on MNF H T if both tms are off L. 11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS L since W16 '98
-Play against 3- RD off @F loss SU. 8-2 SU and ATS since '98.
-Play against tms off @FL and HFL 8-2 SU and 10-0 ATS since 2000.
-Play on 3- F after 7+ SU L and 14+ ATS L. 15-2 SU & ATS

*Bottom line tonight...is Tenn will again be exploit upfront where they have to again rely on a lot on young inexperienced players in the trenches due to an overwhelming rash of injuries they have, and GB will simply attack them there all game long, just like how Indy, Jacksonville, and SD's did...With GB's O-Line Unit doing an excellent job with protecting Farve and with the lack of a pass rush by Tenn, I also see Farve being able to pick this secondary apart, especially in the middle where they will be at their weakest...Tenn on Offense, should find some success against GB..but in the end, their O-Line will not be able to stop the blitzing package that should keep McNair pressured and running all night, just like Delhomme was in GB's first Monday Night game....To many Key injuries, especially on Def, and the lost battles in the trenches will be to much for Tenn to overcome here on the road in Lambeau Field, where Brett "the Hitman" Farve has been known to shine so brightly......Tonight its going to all Pack Attack and that will result in a very solid GB victory once more....Take the Packers as a "BIG GAME PLAY"--MNF GAME OF THE MONTH selection

*BGP update....(GB SU LOSS) :angryfire

OK Gang...I am just as shocked and disappointed by how this game ended up as most people were...I felt the Packers had all the matchups, situations, as well as, the statistical edges on their side in this game tonight....Unfortunately though, no team even with all these edges can expect to come out with a victory when they turn the ball over 7 times (3 ints and 3 fumbles) compared to their opponents not turning it over once...To be successful in this game it is just as much important to win the turnover battle as it is to win the battle at the line of scrimmage...but unfortunately for us handicappers, predicting these type of intangibles is something that no one can do...It is just something that one can only hope, if happens, will benefit your team and not the other...Still though, things like these are part of this game just as everything else that is involved is...so no excuses or second guessing yourself will help you out in any way.....We just need to accept it, remain positive, continue to work hard, stay the course, and keep an eye out for the next opportunity that presents itself again...

**Co-Captain** · 09-04-2005, 09:26 AM

Posted: 11/7/2004 4:50:19 PM

"BIG GAME PLAY"--WAC GAME OF THE MONTH PLAY ON:

Nevada -3 (54-48 WINNER!)

-Wow, what a difference a year makes...Last year, this Tulsa team was riding high, playing solid ball, winning 8 games, which got them into their first Bowl Game since 1991....Now one year later, and after 6 weeks on the gridiron, and they are still trying to get their first win over a Div 1 A opponent....WTF?....Well, I said it earlier this Tulsa team is a one year trick Phony who was completely exposed for being weak by GT squad that blew them out in the Humanitarian Bowl by 42 pts...Tulsa returns 17 starters this year, but this team is not very good, and this years tougher non-conf schedule, unlike last years, to start the season, is continuing to show everyone just how overrated they really are...In this game today, I dont see them getting that elusive first win over a Div 1 A opponent in Nevada...and after it is all said and done...they will leave here with another humiliating loss...Below are some of the Keys to why I feel Nevada will be able to control this game from start to finish....resulting in another solid win...

Key Factor #1: Nevada's strength on Offense, its Running Game, vs Tulsa's weakness on Defense and their inability to stop anyone on the ground...

Nevada's running game is currently ranked 4th in the WAC averaging 161.9 yards per game and has scored 15 TDs so far this year....One of the main weapons for the Wolfpack the past couple of years have been the solid running of RB Kretschmer (All WAC)...and even though he has not been used as much as he has been in the past seasons, due to more emphasis being placed on the passing game, he has still has been solid and is the WAC's second leading rusher this year, only behind La Tech's Moats....Kretschmer this year has gained 636 yards and averaged a solid 5.0 ypc...But, Kretschmer also has some solid help in the backfield in his backups Mitchell 4.5 ypc and Carter averaging 6.3 ypc....

Today, I expect that Kretschmer and Co. will be used as the primary attack on Offensive, as the Golden Hurricane's weakness this year on Defense has been their inability to stop anyone's running game...This year, the Golden Hurricanes are currently ranked 7th against the run in the WAC, and giving up a whopping 205 yards per a game average on the ground...On the road this year, they have not fared any better as each game on the road played has seen their opponents ypc increase considerably...at Kansas they gave up 112 yards on the ground and 3.1 ypc.....at Ok St they gave up 295 yards running and 5.1 ypc....then on their most recent road game at Hawaii (Worst WAC Run Offense averaging at the time only 17 yards rushing per game)...they gave up 128 yards on 23 carries and 5.6 ypc...This simply not good news for this Tulsa Run Defense who are on the road again, but now will have to face possibly the most talented RB they will face all year in Kretschmer...

In todays game, I am expecting Kretschmer and Mitchell to have an easier time running the ball vs Tulsa, who doesnt have such a stingent Run Def as Rice has...Also, I feel that Nevada's running game should be able to pick apart Tulsa's 3-3-5 Defense just like Boise St did last week, rushing for over 250 yards and 4.7 ypc....A more solid sign for the Wolfpack Run Offense though, was their ability to run for almost 200 yards and 4 TDs against Rice's top ranked run stuffing unit that has only allowed 120 yards per a game on the ground all year...

Key Factor #2: Tulsa's lack of an effective pass rush...vs Nevada's Air Wolf Attack..

Last years weakness on Defense for Tulsa, was in its inbility to effective rush the passer....and so far this year, this problem seems to have simply continued to hurt their Defenses ability to also stop the run.....So far this year...Tulsa has only been able to record 3 sacks in their 6 games ( 2 vs Kansas and 1 vs Navy)....Nevada's O-Line, on the other hand, has given up a lot of sacks early on in the year, but in their last 3 games they have tightened up their play and only allowed 3 sacks...This is also a result of them utilizing the running game more in the mix as well....Tulsa, wont find it any easier with their 3-3-5 Defense to effectively stop Nevada's running game or effectively be able to rush the passer and this will put to much pressure on their secondary, which now must go up against the nations 10th ranked passing attack.....

Without being able to stop Nevada's Kretschmer...Tulsa wont have a chance at effectively pressuring Nevada's QB Rowe...and this should lead to Nevada to move the ball at will against Tulsa's Defense today....Nevada's Passing Offense is currently averaging 254.4 ypg through the air this year...and Tulsa will have its work cut out for them today facing the WAC's #1 ranked Pass Offense and the #3 passing QB in Rowe....This will be straight weeks that Tulsa's Defense will be up against the Conferences Best Offenses...Hawaii, Boise St, and now Nevada....

Key Factor #3: Nevada's Air Wolf Attack...

Currently ranked 10th in the land in Passing Offense....and number #1 in the Conf in Passing Offense....QB Rowe, will gets the nod take over complete control of the Offense, after several weeks of sharing duties with other QBs...This should help to provide this already potent Offense they possess a lot more stability and continuity....something they were lacking by using the revolving QBs system....QB Rowe is solid and he currently is ranked as the WACs third leading passer with over 1300 yards passing on the year so far...Todays, effective running of Kretschmer and Mitchell should help to open up the passing game and that should result in a lot of yards leading to a lot of points for this already high scoring Offense at home....

Key Factor #4: Nevada playing this one at home...

These two teams simply remind me of my Hawaii Warriors....Good at home, but shitty as hell on the road....Tulsa this year is currently 0-3 on the road...where they have averaged just 13 pts per game, while allowing its opponents to average 34 pts per a game.....Nevada, on the other hand, is currently 3-0 at home and has outscored its opponents by a combined 132-30....Their most impressive win this season came in last weeks home game vs the nations best Run Offense in Rice, where they held the Owls to just 10 pts and 77 yards below their season average per game on the ground...while they put up a solid 35 pts and totalled over 350 yards on Offense in the win...That solid win last week again continues Nevada's strong home field play, which is something that their new HC Ault is making a priority to continue...

Situational Edge for Nevada: Sense of Urgency for the WolfPack and loss of motivation for the Hurricanes.

Last weeks win by Nevada, give this team a new life and still keeps them eligible for a possible Bowl bid which they are definantly feeling a sense of urgency to try and obtain....These next 3 opponents is where Nevada cannot let one get by as they will then close out the season at Fresno and then with Boise St at home....That win over Rice last week was huge for this teams confidence, which suffered through 3 straight grueling defeats on the road...Now it is time for them to get back into the grove with their next two home games against very beatable opponents.

The Golden Hurricane's, on the other hand, must still be simply reeling after they laided it all on the line, playing their best football of the season, taking nationally ranked Boise St to the limits all game long, only to lose it all in the end on a FG with just 3 seconds left in regulation....

That game would of made Tulsa's season, and they surely played that game as such giving all they had....Because of the loss, and the way that Tulsa loss that one, I have to expect that they will still be suffering from that heartbreaking defeat...and that it wont be so easy for them to be able to get back up for another league contest, especially one being played on the road, where they know they struggle.....Nevada off a big win at home last week gives them much needed confidence...While Tulsa's emotional loss at home last week, should take away any motivation, focus, or energy they have left for the season....I wouldnt be surprised if this team, after that loss have simply started packing it up for the year.....Their hope to return to a Bowl game this year is all but gone....while Nevada's Bowl hopes are still alive and kicking....Nevada definately will have the situational edges, focus, and motivation, on their side today..

Other Stats, Trends, and Info...

-Tulsa is 19-36 (35%) since 1992 after 2 or more consecutive SU losses..

-Nevada has a week off following this game...

-Tulsa is just 4-13 ATS (24%) in its last 17 games vs good rushing teams.

-Tulsa us 10-53-3 ATS when lose SU.

-Nevada is 5-0 ATS in 2nd of BB home games.

-Nevada is 16-2 ATS when win SU.

*Poor special teams play, by Tulsa's Punting Unit....Tulsa punter is currently ranked last in the WAC averaging just 31 ypp average.

Bottom line for me here, is Nevada seems to be renewed by their win over Rice last week...while I think Tulsa will come in completely flat as a result of that loss to Boise St....Nevada has the home field advantage and does its best ball playing at home....While Tulsa has flat out struggled to put it together on the road this year...Nevada's Offense has to much fire power for this boring low octane Tulsa squad to keep up with (only averaging 21 pt per game...2nd lowest in the WAC)...Plus, this line is also low enough for me to feel very confident backing the WolfPack today at home....Play Nevada as a "BIG GAME PLAY" --WAC GAME OF THE MONTH selection.....GL and Lets Go Get Em!....ALOHA CC.

"BGP"--GOM RESULT: (54-48 WINNER!)

**Co-Captain** · 09-04-2005, 09:29 AM

"BIG GAME PLAY"--GAME OF THE YEAR selection on:

HAWAII -3 (EZ 34-23 WINNER!)

-Ok, below are some Key Factors and Situational Edges that I feel will favor the Warriors Big in this game between the two...I also have listed some Stats and Trends for you that support my play on the Warriors, so without further adew lets get to them.

*KEY FACTOR #1: The Warriors Potent Air Attack led by QB Timmy Chang VS La Tech's poor Pass Defense.

Now, I am not going into all the National or WAC Conf stats that show this Warrior Passing attack and Offense, lead by QB Timmy Chang, as one of the nations leaders, and which have been on the top in these categories year in and year out since June Jones brought his wide open, highly sophisticated, and high scoring Offensive schemes here from the ranks of the NFL....What I will talk about more...which seemingly no one is willing to do, is on the Weakness of the Bulldogs on Defense, which is in their swiss cheese Defense against the pass...

This year, the Bulldogs are ranked in the lower 1/4 in the nation in Total Pass Defense....The Bulldogs also rank 9th (2nd to last) in the WAC Conf in Pass Defense, allowing 238.9 ypg...Last in the WAC in pass completion allowed per game at 19....9th (2nd to last) in pass completion % allowed in WAC....Last in the WAC in most Pass TDs given up with 19 on the year....and 3rd fewest in Interceptions in the year with 9.

Now lets look a little closer at this Bulldog Pass Defense vs WAC opponents and one Sun Belt opponent (omitting games vs Miami, Auburn, and Tenn)....Vs Nevada (ranked 3rd in WAC in passing offense, with 5th ranked passing QB) the Bulldogs allowed 244 yards passing, 23 of 38, and 61% completions.....Vs UL Laf (Sun Belts 2nd ranked passing QB and passing offense) the Bulldogs allowed 327 yards passing, 32 of 55, and 58% completions.....Vs Fresno St (ranked 9th in passing offense, with 7th ranked passing QB) the Bulldogs allowed 104 yards passing, 13 of 28, and 46.4% completions.....Vs SMU (ranked 5th in passing offense, with 8th ranked passing QB) the Bulldogs allowed 288 yards passing, 26 of 53, and 50% completions.....Vs Utep (ranked 4th in passing offense, with 3rd ranked passing QB) the Bulldogs allowed 259 yards passing, 17 of 30, and 57% completions......Today, they will face the #1 passing offense averaging 330.1 yards passing per game...and the #1 ranked passing QB in Timmy Chang.

Ok, I lied...I will need to talk about QB Timmy Chang and this Warrior Offensive pass attack...Right now they are the #1 Pass Attack in the WAC Conf, averaging 330.1 ypg...This Warrior Offense is also ranked 30th in the nation in scoring with 31.1 ppg...at home they are averaging 42 ppg...The Warriors are ranked 10th in the nation in passing offense.....They are tied for 8th in the nation in passing TDs with 15, and in fewest INTS on the year....They are also ranked 2nd in the nation in completions per game with 28.6....and 2nd in the nation in yards passing per game with 330.1.

Now lets look at what this Warrior pass attack did at home vs WAC opponents.....Vs Tulsa (ranked 5th in pass defense, allowing 188.5 ypg) Chang went 23-45 for 397 yards......Vs Nevada (ranked 3rd in pass defense, allowing just 167.4 ypg) Chang went 21-35-1 for 322 yards.....and Vs SJST (ranked #1 in pass defense, allowing 178.3 ypg) Chang went 26-40-2 for 341 yards.....At HOME this year vs WAC opponents, the Warriors pass attack led by Timmy Chang averaged 353.3 ypg and 42 ppg....and today they will be facing one of the worst pass defenses not only in the nation, but in the WAC as well....WOW!

Side Note: This years success through the air can also be attributed to the solid Offensive Line play from the veteran Big Uglies Unit that the Warriors got upfront....So far this year, they rank as the 6th Best in least sacks allowed with 9...This also ranks them 2nd in the WAC in least sacks allowed only behind the run all the time, Rice team who allowed 8 sacks on the year so far....OUTSTANDING!...Plus, La Tech's other weakness on Defense was in establishing a pass rush...and vs their last 3 WAC opponents, the Bulldogs were only able to record 4 sacks (2 vs Fresno, 1 vs SMU, and 1 vs Utep)...Not good to give Timmy Chang all day to pass as he can rip secondaries apart when he has all day to pass.

*KEY FACTOR #2: Look out for the Warriors ground attack at Home.

Yes, I said it again....Hawaii's ground attack!....What also makes Boise St solid is their coaches who were just one of the few to recognize that if Hawaii gets their running game going, then trying to stop their passing game will become that much more impossible....Boise St's coaches knew this and that became their first priority of stopping, whereas, most teams will simply only concentrate on stopping Chang and the passing game....This is wrong, because Chang will get his yards, but you dont want the Warriors to put up yards both through the Air and on the Ground...When Hawaii is able to do this, their Offense can be unstoppable...especially at home.

Speaking of the ground attack....Hawaii, though ranking as one of the worst in the nation and last in the WAC on the ground, you have to still look at the fact that when they do decide to run it, they have been very efficient and effective....Currently, Hawaii is averaging 5.0 yards per carry...which ranks as 14th Best in the nation in this category...Hawaii's SR tandem RB duo of "Big Boy" (280 Keliikipi) and "Little Man" (5'6" Brewster) have been very effective running the ball at home.

This year at home vs WAC opponents, the Warriors have rushed for over 100 yards in all 3 games....In fact, Vs Tulsa, Hawaii gained 128 yards on 23 carries (5.6 ypc)..Brewster went 8-81 yards (10.1 ypc) and Keliikipi went 10-64 yards (6.4 ypc)......Vs Nevada, Hawaii rushed for 251 yards on 24 carries (10.5 ypc)...Brewster went 9-150 (16.7 ypc) and Keliikipi went 3-31 yards (10.3 ypc).....Vs SJST, Hawaii rushed for 108 yards on 30 carries (3.6 ypc)...Brewster went 15-49 (3.3 ypc) and Keliikipi went 6-21 (3.5 ypc).......The Bulldog Defense vs the Run is ranked 5th in the WAC, giving up an average of 4.2 ypc and 162.5 ypg on the ground so far this year.

Side Note: Remember and lets not forget, La Tech's Defense last year was the worst Defense in the nation giving up an average of 510.5 ypg and allowed 32.8 ppg...and even though they hired a new DC, Tim Rose, who installed a new 3-4 defensive scheme, dont forget also that he came from Eastern Michigan where defense is also not an issue....Hawaii's Defense is poor, but dont forget, this one is being played in their House and La Tech's somewhat better defensive stats, where also masked by Moats eating up a lot of clock, keeping them off the field...but this may not work against Hawaii's quick strike offense.

*KEY FACTOR #3: RB Moats good...but he is their lone star and I dont think he will be enough vs Hawaii's bend but dont break Defense at Home?

Ok, I am a big fan of RB Moats who reminds me so much of my favorite NFL running back Barry Sanders....And I am not going to kid myself by saying that Hawaii will shut him down or even hold him to under 200 yards rushing...No, I believe that he will get his yards, just like he did last year vs the Warriors where he gained 264 yards and scored 4 TDs, in their 44-41 loss...Hawaii, this year, got shredded for over 400 yards by both Rice and Boise St....but remember, those games were on the ROAD and I dont see Hawaii, even with all their defensive injuries, allowing any WAC opponent to gain that much on the ground, on their Home Turf....

Plus, the difference in those games besides being on the road....is that, for one, Rice has multiple running threats that can kill you, and they also simply only run the ball...and second, Boise St has a very potent balanced offensive attack...La Tech doesnt have any of these two things, they are now on the Road, and really they only have RB Moats to carry the load.

La Tech is basically a one dimensional team relying almost entirely on him...This is more so the issue this year, especially with the loss of their star QB and the nations 5th most prolific passer in NCAA history,in McCown, loss to graduation...This year, the Bulldogs are relying on players who are playing for the first time ever, and also who will be playing for their first time ever in Hawaii...Making matters a little harder on the passing game is that their chosen starter QB Allen is sidelined with an injury, leaving struggling backup Kubik to lead the offense....This kid Kubik sucks **** big time...and his current stats this year has proven this...He is currently hitting ONLY 52% of his passes, and has just 4 passing TDs to his 8 interceptions...In their last game vs Utep, when Moats went down and later returned but was slowed with the injury...La Tech's offense behind the arm of Kubik simply could not get anything done when they had to play catch up at home against the Miners...In that game, he only completed 9 of 28 passes for ONLY 151 yards and had 3 interceptions.....How effective do you think this youngster will be in his first game in Hawaii, and trying to play catch up or score matching with Chang and Co....If the Warriors jump out Big early...I say it will be a long night for this QB, as the Warriors may be poor against the run, but vs the pass...they still have been solid at home where they have at least 1 interception in each of their last 3 home games vs WAC opponents, and also got recorded 9 sacks in these 3 home games as well.

Other poor passing stats on the year for La Tech....they are currently ranked in the bottom 1/3 in the nation in passing offense and 7th in the WAC in this category averaging just 191.8 ypg....Bulldogs also has the 2nd least passes for TDs with ONLY 5...They also only have two receivers with catches in the DD's with 16 and 15...compared to Hawaii having 5 WRs in with DD catches and all of them with 20 + on the year...WOW!...This lack of WR production is due mostly to their young inexperienced QB's, but it is also due to the Bulldogs losing 3 of their Top WRs from last years team to graduation as well.

Why is the struggling passing game of La Tech important in this game? ...Because, what has happened in their previous games, and more so in their last game vs Utep, is exposed to the Warriors and everyone else, not only that their offense is completely and utterly reliant on Moats to carry the entire load...But, Utep also exposed that their weak passing offense is not able to put a comeback via the pass together should they fall behind in points, or if Moats gets injured, or is made ineffective by the opponents defenses stacking the line to stop him....This weakness of La Tech on passing offense, has given their opponents a perfect game plan to beating them, which btw, was perfectly played out by Utep in their 44-27 victory over La Tech in Ruston...The plan, stack the line and try to contain not stop Moats...If La Tech wants to pass, let them go for it...like I mentioned earlier, they only have two WRs who have DD receptions in the year, and both of them total under 18 catches...Plus, add in to this the fact that their young, inexperienced QB is only hitting 52% of his passes this year, have only thrown 4 TDs, and have 8 ints on the year so far..it shows completely that Moats is the immediate threat....Without a threat in a passing game to make use of what he has produced on the ground...makes it that much easier and predictable to defend against should La Tech's offense be put in 2nd and 3rd down and long situations.

Still, Moats is where the Bulldogs will live and die by, and he wont be going down to any defense easy by any means...and especially not to this poorous and banged up defense of the Warriors......But, the weak pass attack of the Bulldogs and the potent offensive attack that the Warriors possess..is where another key to containing Moats will lie....Utep's offense did this, and I feel the Warriors offense, especially at home is capable of doing this as well....maybe even better....What this is put up points on La Tech and keep the pressure on its offense to keep up....Utep was able to do this once they got the lead, and kept the pressure on the Bulldogs by not playing conservation at all, and it paid off with points being constantly put on the board....When this happened, La Tech's offense who uses a lot of clock, simply had no choice but to use Moats less in the offensive schemes and depend more on their struggling QB....Utep kept the pressure on the Bulldogs by taking advantage of their poorous defense, which forced them to use the passing game more, something they definitely dont want to do....and I can certainly see the Warriors and Chang putting up just as much pressure with their passing attack and quick scoring offense....If Hawaii gets up early, Moats will be made less effective, especially late in the game...and this is where La Tech's Star and offense will not be able to survive....Everyone is concerned about how Hawaii will contain Moats...well, I dont think they need to stop him, just contain him....and then let their offense put up points on this weak Bulldog defense, then letting La Tech try to beat the Warriors using their weakness..its QB to come back.

Side Note: This La Tech Offensive Line with all 5 starters back and all of which are in the 300 lb + range is what makes Moats that much more of a dangerous runner...This is a solid run blocking Big Uglies Unit....but, it is NOT a good pass blocking Big Uglies Unit....Last year's weakness on Offense for the Bulldogs was in its pass protection, as they were loaded with Stars besides Moats in the skilled positions especially at QB....But what cause them to falter many times on drives was their poor pass protection....Last year this O-Line unit gave up a whooping 36 sacks on the year....So, you would assume that having another year under their belts that they would be a lot better this year...Well, this is not the case as this O-Line Unit is the worst in the league in pass protection and has already given up 28 sacks on the year so far....they are currently also tied for 4th in the nation in most Sacks allowed...

Last week vs Utep's smallish D-Line unit, they gave up Sacks...yet another problem for this Bulldogs passing offense...Hawaii at Home has been able to record 9 sacks vs their last 3 Conf opponents, as they used blitzing packages to try and create TOs and take away one of the aspects of their opponents offenses....as stopping the run they simply struggle to stop even at home....Today, I see them being able to pressure La Tech's less mobile QB Kubik and that should be easier to game plan against should those things mentioned above fall into place...

*KEY FACTOR #4: Special Special Teams play at Home for the Warriors w/ duo threat WR/PR Chad Owens.

As I mentioned above...La Techs only real Star is RB Moats, who must carry his team on his shoulders to victory....For Hawaii though, it is not exactly the same, even though many think that QB Timmy Chang is the only Star for the Warriors...Not so....this Warrior team also has Stars in their Special teams, and this year they have come up with record tying and game changing plays...

One of them is Star WR/PR Chad Owens (Bilitnikoff nominee)(sp)....This year, Owen's has been given the green light to field punt returns whenever he feels like it, a difference from previous years when he became a starting WR on offense....But this his Sr year, Jones promised him that he could return punts whenever he feels up to it...and Owens has simply responded by returning 3 punts, in Hawaii's last 3 home games for TDs...Owens is also currently ranked 2nd in the WAC in both total punt return yards and average yards per punt return.....Owens also is on the verge of breaking career records as well, as he only needs 116 yards to become Hawaii's career All-Purpose Yardage leader..

In games played at home this year...Hawaii's Special teams play, especially in returns(KO and PR) have been outstanding and have given Hawaii's offense many good field positions to work with...ie, vs Tulsa Hawaii had a return yardage edge of 72 to 12.....Vs Nevada, Hawaii had a return yardage edge of 85 to 53......and Vs SJST, Hawaii had a return yardage edge of 110 to 4.

This year, La Tech leads the Conf with the most punts with 51 so far this year...20 more than the Warriors....Also, this year they are very green in the Punting and Kicking departments..as they have to replace two of last years solid special teams performers in All WAC PK Josh Scobee (NFL) and Punter Upton's consistant 40+ yard average...Hawaii should have the edge here at home with their experienced All Conf Punter in Milne and PK Ayat, over the Bulldogs two Freshman's who will need to deal with this important task, while also playing on the Road today..

Side Note: Other Special Team players who are contributing well for Hawaii are KR Jason Ferguson who is currently ranked 4th in the league averaging 25.2 yards per a KO return, with a long of 66 yards...Compared to La Tech's return man Franklin who ranks 8th in the Conf in KO returns, with a long of only 34 yards....Hawaii's Senior PK Ayat, has also kicked a 56 yard FG at home this year, tying Denver Broncos Jason Elams career longest FG record at Hawaii...Lastly, La Tech lost last years game at home to Hawaii when their All Star PK Scobee missed a 53 yard FG late in the game....

*SOME SITUATIONAL EDGES: Working for in the Warriors Favor...

-QB Timmy Chang's quest to be the Best of All Time....Timmy Chang has another opportunity to set the record in this game and also make up for last weeks disaster on Nationally Televised game at Boise where he set the All Time Int Record, instead of the All Time Passing Yardage Record...Hawaii fans happy and motivated that they get to see this happen at Home and will come out to support their local boy with a lot of energy tonight...Last weeks lost seems to be almost forgotten already.

-Do or Die game for the Warriors Bowl Hopes....This is a must win game for the Warriors here as they will need to win 4 of their last 5 games in order to go to their Bowl game....Bowl games are important for Jones plans on building a consistant Top 25 caliber Football program...and exposure on National TV in the Bowls is one way to do this, not to mention, bringing in money to the program and helping with recruiting...Hawaii's SRs are positive on turning things around starting with the Bulldogs....No time to look ahead to Fresno St, or even worry that its another game on the road, at Fresno who will be playing with triple revenge...Hawaii knows they suck on the road and that Fresno is one of the toughest places to play...But, they also know that a loss here will almost certainly spell no Bowl Game this year for them.

-Longest Road Trip ever for the Bulldogs...plus, the change in weather does have an affect on traveling opponents....La Tech had to travel 4,000 miles and across 5 times zones just to get here for the game....Currently right now, the weather in Hawaii is humid which is at 93% and a High temp of 87 degrees, which they will also have to adjust to in a short time....Many teams who come here at this time of year become sluggish and simply drained of energy by the 2nd half of the game as the travel woes start creeping up on them...RB Moats and his Big Uglies Unit may be all worn out after all the running that they will be doing....I still remember when Alabama potent rush attack came to town two years ago...and their All Time leading RB and QB was completely gasping for oxygen by the end of the 3rd Q...

-Home Sweet Home for the Warriors, but paradise and all its distractions can work against the visitors focus on the game...Too many distractions for this Bulldog squad to stay completely focused on this game. This trip, will represent for most of them their only chance to ever visit these islands and its treasures, "if you know what I mean". You know they have been fully complimented and accommodated with an overwhelming abundance of distrations since they stepped off the plane. And it will only continue until the game is over. How does one keep their young, horny ass, minds on a stupid game, which they must feel they should win EZ.

-Hawaii off an embarrassing loss to Boise St...Hawaiian Pride and playing at home again will reenergize this Warrior team to overcome that embarassing loss with a solid win over the Bulldogs....Jones even stated that he still feels the pain and embarassment of last weeks loss...but stated that you get over it by simply playing the next game and winning it.

*SOME STATS, TRENDS, and INFO: which work in favor of the Warriors.

-La Tech is 1-7-1 ATS away off SU loss vs < .500 opponent.

-La Tech is 2-10 ATS off a bye week.

-La Tech is 1-3 the last 3 years when playing w/ 2 weeks or more rest.

-La Tech is 3-11 ATS vs teams with a losing record.

-La Tech is 1-11 ATS vs teams allowing 5.9 or more yards per play.

-La Tech is 2-4 ATS as a Road Dog of 3.5 to 7 pts since 1992.

-La Tech is 7-13 ATS in games played on Turf since 1992...Last 3 seasons, La Tech is 3-3 ATS in games played on Turf....This will be their first game on Turf this year.

-La Tech is 5-13 ATS the last 3 years in Road Games....La Tech is 1-3 ATS in Road Games this year.

-La Tech is 2-8 SU and ATS in last 10 road games in November

-Hawaii is 11-5 ATS in last 16 Home games in November

-Hawaii is 4-2 last 3 years off a loss vs a Conf rival.

-Hawaii is 2-0 SU and ATS vs La Tech....Covered last year at La Tech as a Road Dog winning outright...and then in 2000 at home winning 27-10.

-Hawaii is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS this year at Home.

Hawaii Off/Def Home Games Stats...and La Techs Off/Def Road Games Stats...

-Hawaii's Offense at Home this year averaging 469.0 ypg, 42 ppg, 24 FDs, 6.9 ypp, 5.9 ypr, 1.0 TOs, and TOP 27:01..

-Hawaii's Defense at Home this year allowing opponents to average 395.2 ypg, 26.2 ppg, 22.7 FDs, 4.8 ypp, 4.3 ypr, 2.2 TOs, and Opps TOP 32:59..

-La Tech's Offense on the Road this year averaging 331.2 ypg, 16.2 ppg, 14.2 FDs, 5.3 ypp, 3 ypr, 2.2 TOs., and TOP 32:19.

-La Tech's Defense on the Road this year allowing Home teams to average 442.0 ypg, 38 ppg, 20.5 FDs, 6.4 ypp, 5.0 ypr, 1.5 TOs., and Opps TOP 27:40.

*Lastly, I want to mention that no matter how anyone feels about QB Timmy Chang, good or bad, is their own business....but keep in mind that what he is achieving is something that will never ever be achieved again..and this achievement is simply an amazing and impressive accomplishment by any standards, no matter what way you try to spin it....Like Trev Alberts said, someone still had to take the snap, someone still had to pass the ball, and someone still had to catch the ball...

So no matter how you try to discredit this accomplishment or water down this milestone...it is still going to be a very impressive achievement...Also, for those who are making an issue of Timmy breaking the All Time Interception Record, which probably wont be broken as well...just remember one of the best ever HR hitter, Babe Ruth, who holds several batting records...also holds the record for the most strike outs, as well....When this day is done, Timmy Chang will have his record and his name will be forever locked in NCAA College Football history..and that no one will be able to take away from him, no matter what.

GL Gang...and LETS GO GET EM!....ALOHA CC.

"BGP"-GOY RESULT: (EZ 34-23 WINNER!)

**Co-Captain** · 09-04-2005, 09:30 AM

Posted: 11/21/2004 11:08:45 PM

"BIG GAME PLAY"--MWC GAME OF THE MONTH selection on:

New Mexico Lobos -8 (buy .5pt)

-Ok, below are some Key Factors and Situational Edges that I feel will favor the Lobos Big in this game between the two...I also have listed some Stats and Trends for you that support my play on the Lobos, so without further adew lets get to them.

KEY FACTOR # 1: NM's Run Offense led by future NFL Star Jr RB DonTrell Moore.

First Key to winning games is you gotta be able to RUN the Ball effectively!....NM Lobos is one of the most solid Ground Em and Pound Em team in the nation the past few years...Plain and Simple!....And one of the main reasons for their success on the ground is due to the running of their Star Jr RB Moore...Moore was last seasons MWC leading rusher, and this years pre-season Player of the Year....Currently right now he is ranked 21st in the nation in rushing with 932 yards on 198 carries...4.7 ypc and 4 TDs, and he also did this playing injuried in 3 games and missing one game this season....

Moore is dominant wherever the Lobos are playing, but at HOME is where he has been the most dominant and where he has had his best performances.....At Home, he rushed for over 100 yards in 10 of his last 13 home games...He had a streak of 9 straight 100 or more yards rushing at home until it was broken this year vs TT...In his 13 Home games, he scored 26 touchdowns (21 rushing, 4 receiving, and 1 passing)....At Home he averages 133.9 yards rushing and has a total so far of 1,741 yards in his 13 Home games at University Stadium...OUTSTANDING!

Still, not only is Moore a threat when running the ball, he is also a threat as a receiver as well...catching passes out of the backfield and also lining up as a wideout and slotback at times....He is currently NM's 2nd leading receiver with 22 catches for a career high of 164 yards (7.5 ypc avg), and has caught a pass in every game he has played this year...In addition, he will also return punts as well and his 128.8 all purpose yards per game is 2nd in the league.

This Saturday RB Moore will be going up against a Cowboy squad who he basically has run all over the past two seasons...The Cowboys weakness on defense this year is in the secondary, but the D-Line also lacks the size, experience and depth it will take to win this battle in the trenches...Wyoming's run defense currently ranks 5th in the conf (77th in the nation) giving up 172.1 ypg, 4.2 ypc, and 16 TDs...this is not a good thing for them facing the best rushing offense in the MWC...Wyoming also is ranked 4th in scoring defense allowing 26 ppg....and # 7 (2nd worst in the conf, and 85th in the nation) in Total Defense giving up over 400 yards total per a game.

The Cowboy's run defense was pushed around a lot last year and this season, the same has been happening (currently ranked in bottom 1/3 in the nation in run defense, giving up 172.1 ypg rushing, 4.2 ypc), but in their last 5 games things has really gotten worst for them....ie, vs Byu (100th ranked run offense) at Provo, the Cowboys defense gave up 237 yards rushing on 44 carries, 5.4 ypc, and 2 TDs.....Vs Colorado St (96th ranked run off) at Colorada St, they gave up 233 yards rushing on 50 carries, and 4.7 ypc......Vs AF (4th ranked run off), they gave up 231 yards rushing on 48 carries, 4.8 ypc, and 3 TDs.....Vs Unlv (26th ranked run off) at Unlv, they gave up 210 yards rushing on 50 carries, 4.2 ypc, and 2 TDs....Vs Utah (9th ranked run offense in the nation), the Cowboys defense gave up 261 yards rushing on 41 carries, 6.4 ypc, and 3 TDs.....This Saturday, they face the 24th ranked run offense in the nation averaging 163.1 ypg rushing and one of the best RBs in the land in Moore who has the benefit of running behind one of the BIGGEST BIG UGLY'S UNIT in the land...

NM's Big Uglys Unit: They are a Huge, Physical, and Experienced Unit, with NFL 1st Rd draft choices like OT Terrell anchoring the unit....and they all weigh in OVER 320 lbs per a man...This is the weight of the starting Big Dawgs Unit for the Cowboys, NG 250 lbs, DE 241 lbs, DE 273 lbs, and DT 281 lbs...That is an average of 60 lbs per a man difference favoring the Big Uglys of NM......OH BOY!....In the the Lobos last game at BYU this unit paved the way for RB Moore to rush for 101 yards on 25 carries and 4.0 ypc, which was his 5th 100 + yard game this season and 18th of his career....And yes, I know that the Lobos are ranked dead last in the league in passing offense and total offense...only averaging 118.2 ypg through the air and only 281.3 total ypg...But, will that matter in this one, eventhough the Cowboys are ranked 7th in the conf in pass defense alowing 231.3 ypg and 13 TDs this year, and that the Lobos still has the 7th best WR in the Conf (in total rec ypg and ypc) in Baskett?

I dont think so....The most important Keys to winning games is the offense must be able to run the ball effectively and the defense must be able to stop the run effectively......Winning the Battle of the Trenches (Part 1) is very important as everything starts there, but based on the Cowboys recent defense vs the run in their last 5 games giving up a Whopping average of 234.4 ypg rushing and 5.1 ypc, and the fact that they must now face one of the best backs in the nation, running behind the biggest and best O-Line in the conf, on their home turf...to me looks like the Lobos passing offense can stay home again (no pun intended), as this one looks to be an easy game plan for the Lobos....just GROUND EM and POUND EM BABY!

Major Injuries to the Cowboys Defense which just make matters worst for them:

-Starting FS Renshaw is out with a broken left leg.
-Starting JR NG Hoffschneider is out with a separated shoulder.
-Starting CB Butler likely to miss the game with a high ankle sprain.

Side Notes # 1: Some more achievements and info on RB Moore....

-voted 2nd Team All-American last year by some publications (rushing for 1450 yards and 21 TDs).
-MWC All Time leading rusher.
-Voted 17th Best player last year.
-2 Time 1st Team MWC and POY last year.
-2004 Doak Walker Award list nominee.
-MWC Freshman of the Year.
-NM's career scoring leader.
-Currently ranked 21st in the Nation in rushing w/ 932 yards on 198 carries...4.7 ypc and 4 TDs.
-has18 total 100 or more yard games.
-He has currently 41 career TDs.
-going for his 2nd league rushing title, eventhough he was injured in 3 games and missed one game vs Utah.
-and most important....HE IS HEALTY!

Side Notes # 2: With the running game in full dominance against the Cowboys defense...the play action pass now becomes that much more of a deadly option for the Lobos to use at their disposal...WR Baskett (7th ranked WR in the conf in tot ypg and ypc) is coming off of his best outing vs BYU, where he caught 4 passes for 125 yards...I look for him to come up big again in this one.

Side Note # 3: QB Mckarney is also coming off of his best outing last week vs BYU, where he went 7 out of 12 for 143 yards....He also went into the 2nd Q of that game with 79 straight pass attempts without an interception and had no Ints in his previous 4 games....He also has the 3rd least Ints in the conf with just 9 this year.

Side Note # 4: NM's Offense has converted 8 straight times in the past 3 games in the Red Zone (5 TDs and 3 FGs)

KEY FACTOR # 2: NM's solid Run Defense at HOME.

The Second Key to winning games is being able to stop the run on defense (Battle of the Trenches Part 2)...This year, the Lobos are the best in the MWC and one of the best in the nation at stuffing the run....They currently rank 1st in MWC and 10th in the nation run defense, allowing just 99.7 ypg on the ground...They are also ranked 5th in the nation in ypc run defense allowing just 2.7 ypc....In addition, they are ranked 9th in the nation in TDs given up via the run allowing just 10 on the year....Lastly, the Lobos are 1st in the conf and 14th in the nation in Total Defense (allowing 321.9 ypg), and 1st in the conf and 18th in the nation in Scoring Defense ( allowing just 18.1 ppg)...OUTSTANDING!

Wyoming's weakness on offense last year was running the ball as they only paved the way for a 2.7 ypc average...This year, although returning 5 starters on the O-Line, they are not getting the most production on the ground and especially on the road....The Cowboys on the road this year has really struggled to run the ball....Vs Texas A&M they rushed for only 67 yards on 26 carries, 2.6 ypc.....Vs BYU they rushed for 103 yards on 37 carries, 2.7 ypc.....Vs Col St they rushed for just 80 yards on 29 carries, 2.8 ypc....and Vs Unlv they rushed for 83 yards on 42 carries, 1.9 ypc...Not Good!

Now their run offense must face the best run stuffing unit in the conf, and one of the best in the nation in NM, and do it on the Road as well.....Not a good situation for the Cowboy again! ....In the past 3 games, the NM defense has allowed ONLY 74 total yards rushing (24.7 avg) and 783 yards of Total offense (261 avg)....

NM's run defense last week vs Byu on the road held RB Brown to ONLY 14 yards on 11 carries, which snapped his streak of 4 straight games rushing for over 100 yards...

Now this game is at HOME...and just like how NM's RB Moore does his Best work at Home....so does this NM run stuffing defense...ie, Vs Wash St they ONLY gave up 55 yards on 31 carries, 1.77 ypc, and 0 TDs.....Vs TT they gave ONLY 63 yards on 22 carries, 2.9 ypc, and 2 TDs......Vs Utah (9th ranked run offense) they had their worst outing which is expected since Utah is ranked 6th in the land and Wyoming is no Utah....plus, the Lobos in that game was without RB Moore.......and Vs SDST they held the Aztecs to -19 yards rushing on 30 carries and no TDs...WOW! ....In the Lobos 3 home games, not counting Utah....they have allowed an average of just 33 yards on the ground, 1.2 ypc, and just 2 TDs....Wyomings 2.5 ypc average on the Road this year wont find yards to improving it vs this Lobos defense in their House this Saturday...

Major Injuries for the Cowboy Offense which will add major problems for them running the ball:

-Starting RB Harris is very ? w/ a left knee sprain.
-Backup RB Davis is also very ? w/ hip injury and post concussion.

*This leaves Soph RB Harrison (478 yards on 128 carries, 3.7 ypc, 59.9 ypg, and 5 TDs) to shoulder the entire load at running back.

KEY FACTOR # 3: NM's Pass Defense, led by their TWO Stud CB's.

Wyomings strength this year is their passing offense where they rank 5th in the conf in pass off averaging 232.2 ypg...and 2nd in scoring off averaging 28.5 ppg...This passing offense of the Cowboys is led by the MWC 3rd ranked QB in Bramlet (1889 total passing yards, 58%, 10 TDs, but 12 Ints), who is coming off of his best outing of his career, passing for 278 yards and 2 TDs, while also rushing for 51 yards and 2 more TDs.....Wyoming also has in its passing arsenal the 24th ranked WR in the nation, in Bouknight (50 catches for 857 yards, 17.1 ypc, 84 ypg, and 7 TDs), who is as well coming off of a career high game vs Utah where he caught 6 passes for 142 yards.

Unfortunately for them though NM is perhaps the quickest defense in the MWC this year...and their defense had arguably the Best CB combos in the conf and one of the best in the nation, in Sr CB Payne (5 Ints) and Jr CB Fulbright (5 Ints)....In fact, CB Payne was just recently selected as one of the 12 semi-finalist for the Jim Thorpe Award for the nation's Best Defensive Back...Payne currently leads the nation with 22 passes defended and 15 passes broken up...He is also tied for 4th in the land with 5 Ints and is the only player from a non-BCS school to make the list....CB Fulbright also is tied for 4th in the land with his 5 Ints this year as well...and some consider him to be arguably the best cover corner in the MWC who also was a 1st team All MWC selection on defense last year....Together they make up the 2nd ranked defense in pass defense efficiency with a rating of 113.46...and this contributes greatly to NM being 1st in the conf in Total Defense (321.9 ypg) and 1st in conf and 19th in the nation in Scoring Defense (18.1 ppg)....Currently this defense of NM is tied for 8th in the nation with 12 Ints on the year....Solid!.

This year, this NM secondary has a lot of experience as they have already faced some of the nations best passing offenses in# 28 Wash St, # 1 TT, # 6 Oregon St, # 34 NMST, # 23 SDST, # 14 Utah, # 16 Col St, and # 8 Byu....Wyoming currently is ranked # 35 in the nation in passing offense (232.2 ypg)...

In the Lobos last game at Byu, the secondary held the Cougars star receiver Watkins (ranked 5th in the nation averaging 106 ypg receiving) to just 1 catch for 6 yards....The defense also had 7 sacks, from 6 different players, and caused 3 turnovers...while also holding Byu's potent offense to just 58 yards on the ground and 317 total yards...This against a Cougar Offense who scored 90 pts and racked up 1,053 yards in their previous two games....Very Solid!

Side Notes # 1: NM's defense under HC Long has recorded 16 sacks on Cowboy Quarterbacks in the past 2 years...9 sacks in 2002 and 7 sacks last year...WOW!....This year, the Cowboys O-Line have given up the 2nd most sacks in the conf with 26 so far this year....And NM's defense this year is the sack masters of the conf with 34 sacks on the year.

Side Notes # 2: NM's Defense has only allowed opponents to score 5 of 10 times in their Red Zone the past 3 games (4 TDs and a FG).

Side Notes # 3: NM is ranked 2nd in the MWC and tied for 5th in the nation in turnover margin of +1.3 (27 takeaways to 14 giveaways)....In their 6 MWC games, NM's turnover ratio is +1.3 or (17 to 4).....and during their 4 game winning streak, they are an OUTSTANDING 14-2 ratio...The past 7 games, NM has forced 19 turnovers while losing it just 5 times.

SITUATIONAL EDGES: Favoring the Lobos in this game.

SE # 1: This game not only is the final regular season Home Game, but it is also Senior Day for NM's 20 Seniors...This also is the last Home inwhich the Lobos havent played in their stadium and in front their fans in almost a month (last played at University Stadium on Oct 23)....The fans and House should be rocking with excitments as the Lobos fans have been setting a new school attendance record this year..

SE # 2: Although NM has become Bowl eligible with their win last week over Byu, they are NOT guaranteed a Bowl game..They know that a win on Saturday would give them that guarantee Bowl game....That's their motivation said Coach Long...Coach Long also said, "There is still a chance we could be home watching all the (bowl) games if we dont put forth the required preparation this week...Our players know the importance of the game, especialy the Seniors who are playing their last home game. I know they would like to extend the season."

SE # 3: Rain is expected for Friday, Sat, and Sun...if it shows up, you gotta give the advantage to the team who can run it effectively and efficiently on the ground and who protects the ball very well..this is the Lobos....and go against a team who has a poor run game and is struggling to stop the run as well on defense...which is the Cowboys.

SE # 4: NM is HOT right now and is on a 4 game win streak and playing for sole possession of second place in the MWC.....They are also playing for its first ever 5 game winning streak under HC Long...who btw, just received a contract extention..and no one wants to lose after they just got rewarded..

SE # 5: With Byu facing the #6 team in the land in Utah and needing to upset them at Utah in order for the Cougars to go to a bowl game, in the process knocking out the loser of the Wyoming/NM game from the bowl picture.....I have to sense that not only is the world thinking that this wont happen, but also the Cowboys, from its fans, coaching staff, on down to its players, also are feeling that an upset of Utah by Byu in their House will not happen as well....Thus, that means that Wyoming will get to a bowl game for the first time in 10 year, whether they win or lose this game vs NM today....If you think that they are not overconfident and already looking towards that bowl game inwhich they already believe that they are going to no matter what happens in this game...then you should...I know Wyoming is thinking Byu will lose today and that guarantees them a bowl game, win or lose today...and this will take off the focus to go out and put a good effort forward to win this hard game on the road vs a Lobos squad who will have all the motivation and energy on their side today...I expect Wyoming to start to tank if down a lot in the 2nd half and start looking more towards their bowl game which they are confident is coming up for them...IMO.

SOME STAT, TRENDS, AND INFO...also favoring the Lobos over the Cowboys.

-NM is 5-3 ATS vs Wyoming since 1992.
-NM 2-0 SU and ATS vs Wyoming the last 3 seasons.
-NM currently 4-1 ATS and 14-5 ATS the last 3 seasons after playing a Conf game.
-NM currently 4-2 ATS and 15-5 the last 3 seasons vs Conf Opp.
-NM currently 2-0 ATS and 9-4 the last 3 seasons as a FAV.
-NM is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 games in November.
-NM currently 7-1 ATS and 20-8 ATS the last 3 seasons when playing on a Saturday.
-NM currently 2-0 ATS and 7-3 ATS the last 10 games as a FAV of 3.5 to 10 pts.
-NM currently 2-0 ATS and 7-2 the last 9 games after 2 or more SU wins.
-NM currently 5-1 ATS and 15-9 ATS the last 24 games when playing with 6 or less days rest.
-NM is 11-5 ATS the last 16 Home Finales.
-NM has a 10-3 record in November games since 2001.
-NM has won 4 of the last 5 vs Wyoming.

-Wyoming is 3-5 ATS the last 8 games as a Road Dog of 7.5 to 10 pts.
-Wyoming is 1-3 SU and ATS in Road games this year.
-Wyoming is 1-6 ATS in the last 7 Road Finales.

-NM won last years game 26-3 at Laramie, and rushed for 336 yards, and held the Cowboys to just 23 yards on the ground and 122 yards in Total Offense.
-Wyoming's Defense has given up 90 pts in their last two games.....and 145 pts in their last 4 games, or 36.5 points per game.
-Wyoming is 1-17 in their last 18 MWC Road Games....after last weeks triple OT win over last place UNLV.
-NM is 5-1 this season when both QB McKarney and RB Moore are in the starting lineup.
-NM has outscored opponents 80-18 in the 3rd Quarter and its 66-9 over the past 8 games.

History of NM Football Season Ending Runs: the Lobos start slow, but they finish STRONG!

-In 2000: started 0-3 and finished on a 5-4 run.
-In 2001: started 2-4 and finished on a 4-1 run.
-In 2002: started 2-4 and finished on a 5-2 run.
-In 2003: started 1-3 and finished on a 7-1 run.
-In 2004: started 2-4 and currently on a 4-0 run.

*Bottom Line in this one...NM has the TWO important Keys to success on their side...which is an Offense that can run the ball effectively, and a Defense that can stop the run effectively....NM also has the stars in the Defenses secondary to stop Wyomings stars on Offense....NM, in addition, is playing this one at home and has more situational and statistical advantages favoring them as well....But most importantly, NM is a strong and discipline team who doesnt make mistakes and are very solid at Home...Wyoming, on the other hand, is just an average team who is poor on the road, and as I mentioned will be to happily looking to much to their impending bowl game and not enough on this regular season ending game as the Home Favored Lobos will be doing.....Because of these and more, I am playing this one as a "BIG GAME PLAY"--MWC GAME OF THE MONTH selection....

**Co-Captain** · 09-04-2005, 09:34 AM

Posted: 11/21/2004 11:19:20 PM

"BIG GAME PLAY"--RIVALRY GAME OF THE WEEK selection on:

Oregon St Beavers -3 (EZ 50-21 Blowout Winner!)

-The Write-Up for this play was lost in a power surge....Nonetheless this play was still posted in the sports forums..ie, Cover*...and the result of this play, like most of my past "BGP's" selections was simply Sweet as the Beavers WON EZ in a Big Blowout 50-21 of instate rival Oregon.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UPDATE:...FINAL REG-SEASON "BIG GAME PLAY" RESULTS..

Posted: 12/5/2004 7:05:52 AM

"BIG GAME PLAY"--UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH ON:

Hawaii +7 (EZ 41-38 Outright Dog Winner!)

Ok Gang...now that was a SWEET-"BIG GAME PLAY"--UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH.. WINNER on the HAWAII WARRIORS +7 ov MICH ST ...This Home Dog Play was simply EZ Money again...AWWRIIGHT!

I hope you all got a chance to view my weeks long thread, I ran, with all the info, insights, stats, trends, inj reports, etc...which I updated throughout the week at Cover* ...No one will provide more Quality and/or Quantity as I do when it comes to backing up my "BIG GAME PLAYS"...and especially when it comes to backing up a Big selection on HAWAII which qualified into my "BIG GAME PLAY" selection categories...BELIEVE IT!....ALOHA CC.

Contact Info: COCAPTAINSPORTS@YAHO*.COM

**Co-Captain** · 09-04-2005, 09:35 AM

"BIG GAME PLAY"--MISMATCH BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH selection on:

VIRGINIA -4

-Ok, below are some Key Factors and Situational Edges that I feel will favor the Cavaliers Big in this game between the two...I also have listed some Stats, Trends, and other Info that support my play on Virginia today. So without further adui lets get to them.

*KEY FACTOR # 1: "BATTLE OF THE TRENCHES-PART 1" .. Virginia's Big Uglys Unit vs Fresno St's Run Defense..

First Key to winning games is you gotta be able to RUN the Ball effectively, thus controlling the Line of Scrimmage, dictating the tempo of the game, and eventually wearing down your opponents both physically and mentally in the process!....This year, Virginia has done a lot of this, becoming one of the Best GROUND EM and POUND EM teams in the nation...Plain and Simple!....The main reason for their success on the ground is due to this team's aggressive and agile veteran Big Uglys Unit led by 1st Team All-American OG Elton "Big Daddy" Brown...This O-Line for the Cavaliers, besides being ranked the Best O-Line Unit in the ACC conf,..was also ranked by the Sporting News as the 3rd Best O-Line in the Nation..and in the Pre-season they were ranked 9th by CollegeFootballNews, which shows how underrated they might have been.

There are several more reasons why this Cavalier O-Line is so effective and efficient in dominating the trenches,..one of them is because this unit features a returning starter in every spot that has been playing together for almost their entire careers keeping the lineup remaining constant in every game...ie, Sr G Brown-1st team All-American, 2 time ACC best OL blocker, finalist for the Lombardi Award, has 37 career starts...Sr C Yarbrough-1st Team ACC and 3 year starter, who has never given up a SACK yet in all his starts, Virginia is 24-8 (.750) when he starts, has 32 career starts.....Jr LT Ferguson- 1st Team ACC, 3 year starter, who is also a black belt in Karate, has 37 career starts....Jr RT Butler- only other lineman other than Ferguson to start every game last year, has started Virginia's last 24 games...and Jr Barthelmes- 2 year starter and most versatile of all the lineman started at Rt G and Rt T....Also, the running game gets added support from their talented TE's in Jr Miller-1st Team All-American and ACC is a solid blocker as in his backup Sr TE Estes is...An important thing to being a solid unit in any position is consistency and experience...and clearly, the success of Virginia's Offense is due to this consistency and experience of its players on the O-Line..which allowed them to become extremely familiar with each other's tendencies, as well as, Coach Al Groh's system which they learned together.

What you need to also know about this group on the Cav's O-Line, is that they are NOT your typical Big Uglys unit who only plays smashmouth football...No, this group is a very agile, aggressive group that can run...Virginia relies heavily on pulling lineman instead of the more traditional straight ahead blocking styles you find in power running teams making them both potent up the middle and on the perimeter...In fact, the Cavs will pull a lineman on approxiamately 80-90% of the time on running plays...This bowl game vs Fresno will be on turf, and thats not a good thing for the Bulldogs smaller upfront players, as turf fields increase speed, and even those Big Uglys will be faster...Oh Boy, I pity the outside defenders for the Bulldogs having to stop one of these Big Monsters pulling around the ends...Can you say PANCAKE CITY!..LOL.

This year, Virginia's O-Line paved the way for their running game to rank 1st in the ACC and 12th nationally on the ground averaging 241.27 yards rushing per game, 5.2 ypc (ranked 13th), and 31 TDs (ranked 8th)......Major accomplishment, Virginia's run offense this year has improved their average by appoximately 124.6 ypg, which is the greatest single season improvement in ACC history....Solid!

Virginia's Two Headed Stud RB Tandem: Taking advantage of this O-Line's dominance is Virginia's stud RB duo of Sr Pearman and Jr Lundy...Sr RB Pearman, a 1st Team ACC selection was 2nd in the league in rushing and his backup Jr RB Lundy was 4th...RB Pearman is the 2nd leading rusher in the ACC with 985 yards...He also is averaging 5.3 ypc and scored 9 TDs rushing this year....RB Lundy, the second punch to this Virginia power running game, is ranked 4th in the ACC in rushing with 801 yards...He also averages 72.8 ypg rushing, 5.0 ypc,..but more impressive is his ability to find the end zone, scoring 16 TDs which ties him for 7th in the nation in rushing TDs and 8th in the nation in Total TDs, as well as leading this Virginia team in scoring with 96 pts...Lundy also has recorded eight 3 TD games in his career which is the most in Virginia history...And in his 36 career games, he has scored 40 TDs...Fresno St's Defense this year has not faced a team with a potent RB tandem which the Cavs possess...When they went up against the WAC's best rushing teams featuring just one stud RB in the backfield, who also has the ability to be a threat at receiving out of the backfield as well,..ie, La Tech's Moats, Utep's Jackson, and Boise St's Marks, they struggled keeping them in check and thus ended up losing...Now they must face this dominant Running team in Virginia with not just one back to kill them, but two solid RBs, who both can run and receive out of the backfield...This is simply, not good news for this Bulldog defense.

This is what the Cavalier's running game did vs their tough ACC opponents defense:....Vs Virginia Tech (4th ranked Defense), the Cavs rushed for 210 yards on 46 carries, and 4.6 ypc.....Vs GT'(14th ranked Defense), the Cavs rushed for 231 yards on 41 carries, 5.6 ypc, and 3 TDs......Vs Miami (26th ranked Defense), the Cavs rushed for 236 yards on 36 carries, 6.6 ypc, and 2 TDs......Vs Maryland (21st ranked Defense), the Cavs rushed for 310 yards on 61 carries, 5.1 ypc, and 2 TDs......Vs Clemson (28th ranked Defense), the Cavs rushed for 257 yards on 53 carries, 4.8 ypc, and 2 TDs....Only FL St's #1 Defense against the run was able to hold this Cavalier run attack to just 72 yards rushing and no TDs....Fresno St's defense is nowhere near the talent, size, or speed that this Cavaliers Run Offense has faced this year in the ACC, and the Bulldogs poor defensive stat against the run this year, vs the weak opponents of the WAC simply points to a Big Time Bulldog Beating on the ground in this game...Fresno's defense is in Big Trouble!

Fresno St's Defensive Weakness: this year, is in stopping the Run...They ended the regular season ranked 66th in the nation vs the run, allowing 155.8 ypg rushing..and this in a Conf that is known for its passing offenses...This year vs three of the WAC's best running teams this Bulldog Run Defense was pounded on the Ground, which led to their 3 losses....ie, Vs Boise St, the Bulldog Defense gave up 164 yards rushing, 3.0 ypc, 2 TDs, and 10 first downs rushing....In that game, Boise's starting RB Marks accounted for 126 of those rushing yards and averaged 5.3 ypc....Vs La Tech and RB Moats, the Bulldogs Defense gave up 292 total yards rushing and 4 TDs...RB Moats accounted for 236 of those rushing yards and all 4 TDs.

In Fresno's last 5 games played this year,..they were against most of the WAC's and the nation's worst running offenses...This is how the Fresno Defense did:....Vs SJST (7th in WAC in rushing), Fresno St's defense gave up 190 yards rushing....Vs Nevada (6th in WAC in rushing), Fresno St's defense gave up 166 yards rushing......Vs Hawaii (last in WAC in rushing), Fresno St's defense gave up 106 yards rushing.....Vs Rice (1st in WAC in rushing), Fresno St's defense gave up 286 yards rushing.....And Vs SMU (9th in WAC in rushing), Fresno St's defense gave up 121 yards rushing....Not very good stats against these poor running teams...Now they face the ACC's best and the nation's 12th ranked rushing team in Virginia and it doesn't look like they will be able to stop this bulldozer, based on their previous play against much, much weaker running teams....Again, this Fresno defense is in Big Trouble!

Side Note # 1: Besides being dominant in run blocking, this Unit is also very solid in pass blocking as well...In fact, last year, the Virginia's O-Line only gave up 12 Sacks all year, best in the ACC...This year they only allowed 15 Sacks on the season...which was again, the Fewest in the ACC and 10th lowest in the nation....They also had seven games with one or no sacks allowed.

Side Note # 2: Virginia was 1st in ACC and 25th in the nation in Total Off averaging 423.5 ypg...and 32nd in the nation in Scoring Offense averaging 29.9 ppg.

Side Note # 3: Fresno St's position weakness this year is in the LB position, where they played two young and still very inexperienced sophs.

Side Note # 4: Virginia's RB duo of Pearman and Lundy was one of only two team with two RB's ranked in the Top 10 in the ACC, the other was FL St's RB duo of Booker (5th) and Washington (7th).

Side Note # 5: Virginia has rushed for at least 220 yards on 8 occassions this season...

Side Note # 6: Virginia's O-Line outweighs Fresno's D-Line by an average of 40 lbs per man...Only one of Fresno's D-Line starters weighs more than 250 pounds..and their lack of depth in the D-Line hurts Fresno State against teams that grind out the ball, such as Virginia will....More bad news for Fresno is that they will also be without its biggest run stuffer in starting Sr NT Donyell Booker, who was ruled ineligible for this game due to academics...The 6-foot-2, 305-pounder had 24 tackles, four for a loss, with one sack and one fumble recovery on the year...and his loss will surely hurt the Bulldogs upfront in the trenches for sure..

Winning the Battle of the Trenches (Part 1) is very important as everything starts there....Virginia clearly has the edge, experience, talent, and weapons, to win this battle easily...Fresno St defense will be outmatched, outsized, and outmuscled here in this one, and as the past games showed, they definitely struggle against teams with the solid O-Lines that are good at paving the way for their solid RBs to GROUND EM and POUND EM....The Cavs are definately one of the best in the nation at doing just that...This one to me looks like the Cavs passing offense can stay dormant again if it choses to...But, don't expect it though,..as their running game will open to many play action pass opportunities and this team got to much talent in the other skilled positions not to take advantage of them....The Cavs win this battle in this trench is solid dominant fashion....Game plan will be simple vs this Bulldog defense, just GROUND EM and POUND EM BABY!

*KEY FACTOR # 2: "BATTLE OF THE TRENCHES PART 2" ....Virginia's Front 7 vs Fresno St's Rush Offense.

The Second Key to winning games is being able to stop the run on defense (Battle of the Trenches Part 2)...This year, the Cavs defense was one of the best in the ACC, as well as, in the nation this year in doing just that...The Cavs defense ended the regular season ranked 3rd in the ACC and 18th in the nation in Run defense, allowing just 109.18 ypg on the ground....They are also ranked 19th in the nation in ypc run defense allowing just 3.2 ypc....In addition, they are tied for 7th in the nation in TDs given up via the run, allowing just 10 on the year...Lastly, the Cavs are ranked 14th overall in total defense, allowing just 303.3 ypg...and 11th in scoring defense giving up ONLY 15.91 ppg...OUTSTANDING!

The main reason behind this solid defense, is the athletic play from their outstanding Linebacking Unit, led by 1st Team All-American Soph Ahmad Brooks...The Sporting News ranked this LB Corp of Virginia as the Best in the Nation this year, and most will not argue with this ranking after watching Butkus award semifinalist Brooks, Blackstock, Haley, and Parham play....These guys are not only athletic, fast, and have a nose for the ball, but they are big as well..

Sr OLB Haley (6-1 247)- is 4th on the team in tackles with an average of 5.3 stops per game......Soph ILB Parham (6-3 247)- is 3rd on the team in tackles averaging 6.1 tackles per game..He had a career high 14 stops vs Miami, and solid games with 9 tackles against both Fl St and NC......Jr OLB Blackstock (6-4 240)- 2nd Team ACC..He is Virginia's dynamic pass rusher and run stopper...4th on team in tackles, 14 were TFL (44 TFL in his career), and he leads the team in sacks with 11.5 on the year...Blackstock also is 2nd in ACC history in career sacks by a LB, only behind Marco Coleman (GT) who has 27.5 sacks...and he leads the ACC with sacks per game with 1.05...He also recorded three multi-sack games vs Maryland (3 sacks), vs Miami (2 sacks), and vs GT (3 sacks).....and Soph ILB Brooks (6-4 249)- 1st Team All-American, led the team in tackles for the 2nd straight year....He also had 11 QB hurries, 10 TFL, 6 sacks, and 2 interceptions...Brooks, is also one of the fastest players on the Virginia team, and is, according to pro scouts, NFL ready right now...Spooky!

Making things easier for this unit to dominate and shut everything down is the play from Virginia's Big Dawg's Unit....This unit recorded 39 tackles for a loss this year...Jr DE Schmidt (6-3 269)- 3 year starter who leads the defensive team with 37 starts..He finished 2nd in the ACC last two years in tackling by a lineman wtih 87 each year......Sr NT Hoffman (6-4 284)- 3 year starter and ACC selection, who averages 4.5 tackles per game and ranks 2nd best ACC NT/DT in tackles by an interior lineman with 48...2nd on the team with 11 TFL and is 3rd in sacks with 5...Had a multi-sack game vs Va Tech....Fr DE Johnson (6-3 275)- averaging also 4.5 tackles per game, taking over for the injured All ACC Canty....This Cavalier D-Line Unit was ranked by the Sporting News as the 9th Best in the Nation.

Fresno St's solid rush attack: is good, but their offense has not seen or faced a defensive front as tenacious as Virginia's this year...Fresno St, while averaging a solid 228 ypg on the ground was mostly padded against poor defenses of the WAC...But, when they did face the WAC's best top defenses in Boise St and Utep, they were ineffective in running and passing which led to them losing both games...In Fresno St's last 5 games where they went on a tear, it should be noted that it was against SMU's 102nd ranked run defense, which allows 209.2 ypg, 4.9 ypc, and gave up 26 TDs.....Rice's 57th ranked run defense, which allows 150.0 ypg, 4.2 ypc, and gave up 18 TDs......Hawaii's 117th ranked run defense which allows 259.3 ypg, 5.4 ypc, and gave up 39 TDs.......Nevada's 112th ranked run defense, which allows 209.1 ypg, 4.9 ypc, and gave up 30 TDs......and against SJST's 116th ranked run defense, which allows 252.4 ypg, 5.1 ypc, and gave up 45 TDs....is NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL!

Again, this will be the Best defensive front 7 as well as, the best overall defensive unit..who gives up ONLY 109.18 ypg rushing, 3.2 ypc, and only 10 rushing TDs all year..that this Bulldogs offense will have faced, since they lost to Boise St on October 23rd....In addition, Fresno St's solid RB tandem of Sumlin and Mathis will not be the first RB duo that this Cavs defense will have faced this year, unlike what its own defense will have to do, going up against their first team with a potent RB duo....Fresno St will be the 6th team that this Cavs defense will have faced this year, who utilizes a duo RB tandem...They have already faced Fl St's Brooker and Washington, NC's Scott and Lewis, Miami's Moss and Gore, Virg Tech's Imoh and Humes, and in GT's Daniels, Grant, and Ball (QB)...Based on this, I have to say that Virginia's defense should be well experienced and prepared to face the Bulldogs tandem RB team, who wont find running on them as easy as it was in their last 5 games vs their weak-ass WAC conf opponents in their last 5 games...That is for sure!.

Side Note # 1: Virginia's pass defense ranked 23rd in the nation allowing 191.09 ypg...and hasnt allowed a 300-yard passing games all season.

Side Note # 2: Fresno's defense has have never faced a QB with the ability to be a real threat at running the ball as well, except for Boise St's Zambransky....Virginia's QB Hagan's is ranked 23rd in ACC in rushing, and averages 4.4 ypc, which makes him another threat they will need to deal with...

Side Note # 3: Pinegar was only sacked 18 times on the year, but vs the Cavs pass attacking defense, he will definately be pressured and harassed like he hasnt been pressured or harassed this year....Virginia's pass rushing unit this year recorded 34 sacks on the season...from 13 different defensive players.

Side Note # 4: Out of the 34 total Sacks recorded by Virginia this year, 23 of the sacks were by their Super Linebacking Corp...This LB Corp also was recorded 26 quarterback hurries on the year as well.

Side Note # 5: Virginia's defense also recorded a total of 83 TFL for minus 347 yards, by 19 different defensive players.

Side Note # 6: Fresno St's WRs and TEs only have two catches of 50-plus yards....And the receivers deserve as much blame as Pinegar for an unspectacular passing game. This is perhaps Fresno State’s weakest receiving group in 13 years, as there hasn’t been a 100-yard effort this season. WR Joe Fernandez has emerged as a skilled go-to man, but his 474 yards stand to be the fewest by a leading Bulldogs receiver since 1991. The tight end is used mostly as a sixth lineman.

*KEY FACTOR # 3: The Battle of the Skilled Position Players...Virginia's Secondary Offensive Weapons..

Make no doubt about it, Virginia will run, run, and run the ball almost entirely in this game exploiting Fresno St's defensive weakness against the run....but, don't expect them to stop there inregards to who they can go to help effectively move the ball down the field and/or score points, which is probably what they will do once the running game starts rolling...One of Virginia's other superstars on offense, who is a major threat against any defense in the nation, is Jr TE Miller, who just was voted as the Best TE in the nation and also a 1st Team All-American selection, along with his 1st team All ACC honors for the second straight year....TE Miller is a guarantee first rounder if he desides to come out after this bowl game is done....Miller while leading Virginia in every receiving category, also ranks 6th in the ACC in receiving and total receptions, and is tied for 3rd in the league in TDs with 5 on the year...When Fl St's #1 ranked run defense stopped the Cavs ground game, TE Miller showed why he is the best TE in the nation, as he caught 9 passes for 110 yards in that game....But, what makes Miller that much more important in Virginia's offensive scheme besides his ability to grab everything that is thrown to him, is his ability to provide this devastating Virginia running game with yet another solid run blocker...and also his ability to help keep the chains moving on crucial third downs when he is needed to use his soft hands and ability to find open spaces in the defenses.

In this game, I expect Fresno St to lock up their best secondary player and one of their top tacklers, in Safety Sanders (5-11 205), on Miller (6-5 255) all day...and this will leave Virginia's other receiving targets to find openings in Virginia West Coast style passing attack which is all about the short passing game..and which will throw its backs coming out of the backfield as well.

RB Pearman, is another weapon besides a running threat..He is also 1st in the ACC and 13th nationally in All-Purpose yards averaging 159.4 ypg...He also returned a punt 70 yards for a TD against Temple and scored a 93 yard TD on a KO return against NC this year...Pearman is also Virginia's 2nd leading receiver and is 3rd All-Time in Virginia history in receptions with 134, just 3 behind All-American Miller who is 2nd...Pearman is also just one of 34 players in Div 1A history to record both 1000 yards rushing and receiving....To say that Fresno St's LB'ers will be going up against a solid RB in Pearman is a big understatement...The Bulldogs will be no match in covering any of Virginia's RBs in Pearman, Lundy, or Santi, who will be used out of the backfield..

Another weapon which Virginia has on its offensive, and one which Fresno St's defense must also be aware of, is the Cavs very athletic and mobile QB Hagan...Before Hagan took over the helm at QB, he was Virginia's top return man and a major threat for them at WR...So you know that he's a QB with a lot of speed to run and the ability to avoid pass rushers gaining positive yards on broken plays....Hagan possesses the mobility also to throw on the run, gives another dimension to the Cavaleirs offense...Hagan, this year while only averaging 169.3 ypg through the air, he was the best in efficiency rating for all ACC QB's, completing 63.2% of his passes, which also ranks 20th in the nation...and he also was intercepted only 5 times all season...The Cavaliers also have just 8 turnovers as a team, which is fifth-fewest among the 117 teams in Division 1-A this year....The last time the Bulldogs faced a QB with the ability to be effective not only passing, but running as well was against Boise St's Zambransky who rushed for 46 yards and scored 1 TD...Zambransky a solid running QB in the WAC averages 2.8 ypc, Hagan's who possess much more speed and agility than Boise's QB, averages 4.4 ypc and scored 3 TDs....Fresno St better be very aware of Hagan as he can beat you both with his arm accuracy, and more so with his running ability...Something that Pinegar cannot do!

PK Hughes, a Groza award nominee this year, is a solid Kicker for Virginia...He is their 2nd leading scorer this season, as well as, 2nd in school history in total FG's made with 43...He is also 4th among active kickers making 82.35% of his career attempts...And although this has been a down season for him, hitting just 15 out of 22 attempts, he still is considered to be one of the nation's best PK with NFL accurate deep leg as his past stats has shown.

Side Note # 1: Virginia's RBs Pearman and Lundy along with TE Miller, have combined for 73 of the team's 161 receptions this season.
Side Note # 2: Fresno St's Mike Lingua ranks last in the Western Athletic Conference with a 36.4-yard punting average.
Side Note # 3: Fresno St's PK kicker Brett Visintainer is (9 of 12) and hasn’t had much field-goal work this year.
Side Note # 4: Virginia is ranked 5th in the nation in kickoff returns and 37th in punt returns.
Side Note # 5: Virginia KOR Marquis Weeks is downright explosive, averaging 32.2 yards per kickoff return..and has a 100 yard TD.

*SOME SITUATIONAL EDGES: favoring Virginia in this game.

SE # 1: In games where Fresno St struggled to run the ball...the game then was placed into QB Pinegar's hands and he failed miserbly in all of them....ie, vs Boise St's weak defense against the pass (ranking 2nd to last in WAC), once the Bronco's was able to shut down Fresno's running game to only 17 yards on 17 attempts for 1.0 ypc....QB Pinegar needed to move them via the air and he went 17 of 30 for 174 yards, 56%, was sacked 3 times, and threw 2 costly interceptions, in the loss...In addition, Fresno could only manage to get 9 first downs on offense in that game....In Fresno St's loss to Utep, QB Pinegar was 20-36 for just 126 yards, was sacked 3 times, and again threw 3 costly interceptions, in their loss.....and Vs La Tech, QB Pinegar went 13 for 28 for ONLY 104 yards, was sacked 2 times, and again threw 2 costly interceptions, in the loss...In fact, Fresno St QB Pinegar has thrown at least 1 interception in all but 2 games this year and has a total of 15 interceptions on the year....6 coming against Fresno's toughest games which they loss...Bottom line on Pinegar, is he looks good vs defenses that cant stop their running game, but put him against stiffer competition, where he is forced to win games on his arm, and he implodes...But also making matters more difficult for him is that his WR corp, which is actually the weakest part of this Fresno offense, is very young and inexperienced this year, as compared to last seasons wide receiving studs...This year, the Bulldogs only have one WR ranked in the top 30 WRs in the WAC conf, with Fernandez ranking 15th, but he has just 33 catches on the year, and averaging a mere 43.1 ypg ....Fresno's pass offense is also ranked as the 2nd worst in the WAC through the air, averaging only 171.7 ypg....This wont be good enough against this tough and talented defense!

SE # 2: Many people seemed to be worried about whether or not Virginia would even be motivated to play in this minor bowl game against Fresno St...Well, I say you better believe they will be motivated to play this game....Remember Guys Fresno St is not just another football team from a weaker non-BCS conf...No, Fresno St has already brought their program out into the national spotlight that many top BCS school are in.....Fresno St is no longer looked upon as that lower level program who is simply waiting for their opportunity to make a name for themselves by upsetting a bigger named opponent from a BCS Conf....The Bulldogs have already been there and done that, and several times over...So no one, including Virginia will be overlooking these Bulldogs by any means...Remember, Fresno St beat a solid ACC team in GT, in a bowl game, two years ago...GT was no pushover either, and I am sure Virginia is very aware of this sound beating that GT got at the hands of the Bulldogs...Fresno St is simply one of those non-BCS teams who have earned the respect of there peers and who have gained a national reputation and credibility, because they did the hard way....Of course, most of these big upsets occurred when they had QB Carr at the helm, and it was those big wins that put Fresno St on the map as a respected football program, and a reputation for being "Giant Killers."

Well, how will this benefit Virginia in this game, you may be wondering....Well, for one, all of this respect that Fresno St has been getting these past seasons, have made many teams aware of this program and their Bulldog Coach in Hill....Nobody, in the nation more precisely teams from a BCS conf is overlooking this team any more....There secret is out, Fresno St is simply a BCS quality team who just happens to play in a non-BCS conf.....This is why, playing and beating a team like Fresno St is no longer looked upon as an automatic thing or as a non-quality game against a sub-par team...Not anymore, playing Fresno St and beating them is now considered to be a quality win, BCS or no BCS conf....Just look at all the Football analysis who have continually made comments about the fact that Fresno St has BCS talented players who are considered capable of playing with most BCS teams...and this says a lot...This Bulldog reputation, is why I am thinking that Virginia although coming from the much superior ACC conference, wont automatically see this game against the Bulldogs as being an easy game, a cake walk for them, or a step down in class...No, I dont think that they will feel this way, simply because of what these Bulldogs have done to some solid teams in the past Two Bowl games..

SE # 3: -Some other reasons why I feel Virginia will be motivated to play this game and win it in dominant fashion..
-Virginia won't want to the next nationally ranked team to go down at the hands of these cocky Bulldogs...
-Virginia has to not like the fact that Fresno St was out head hunting after them due to their national ranking, in hopes of being able to take down yet another ranked team...I am feeling that Virginia's playeers must be looking forward to putting this Fresno St teams in their place...Whenever a lesser underdog opponent comes out and publically goes after to challenge a top ranked team, sometimes this can just motivate the better team to simply want to kick their asses all over the place and spank them back down to reality....Coach Hill, turned down their bowl game in order to specifically go against this ranked Virginia team...I also cant see Coach Groh, even allowing Hill and the Bulldogs to even have a chance at making a name for their program, in any off of this Virginia program which he is building to claim a national title one day...Groh has big goals and big plans for this Virginia football program, and he knows that a lost or a terrible showing against Fresno will hurt those plans.
-Virginia though can use this game against Fresno St to regain some of the lost prestige of their season, and especially in that lost to Va Tech in their last game....Again, Fresno St is seen by many as still a quality opponent, even though they havent beaten any notable teams recently, and I am expecting Virginia and Coach Groh to take advantage of this by dismantling them..like a national powerhouse is suppose to do...No time for close games, Virginia needs to continue demolishing lower level teams...
-Virginia's Coach Groh is a great motivator who will get his team well prepared for this game against Fresno St....He has proven to be capable of getting his team to respond quickly off of a bad or disappointing lost and game, with a solid dominating performance in their next game...Virginia has showed there ability to do this in their games following a loss to Fl St and Miami, by winning both of them by a 20 and 21 pt margin.....This kind of performances by a team, is a testiment to how good a coach is in being able to motivate, keep them focused, and in preparing them for their next opponent...I have all the faith in Coach Groh's ability to get his team filled with NFL talented players ready to perform well coming off of their lost to instate rival Va Tech...Groh was a proven motivator when he was at NE, and he has shown this ability as well, the last two seasons when Virginia went to the lower Continent Tire Bowl Games, which they won both in very solid fashion....Remember, Coach Groh, is a disciple of Coach Belichik and a disciple of Coach Parcells, so you know why he is as serious as they are in their jobs...Enough Said!

These are some comments by Coach Groh and one of his senior players, in regards to this bowl game..."We're looking forward to playing another game," Groh said. "And we're looking forward to winning against whomever and wherever we play."....The players, especially the seniors, said they look forward to ending their season and their college careers on a winning note. "We want another chance to win another game," senior safety Marquis Weeks said. "That's the only way I want to end my career at the University of Virginia."....Groh has instilled a strong work ethic and discipline into these players..and they wont stop doing what they do just because they are not where others, including themselves thought they were capable of being....Groh is taking this one step at a time, but he is set on taking making it a forward step and so is his players....Losing to Fresno is not on the plan of things to do, you can be sure of this..

SE # 4: In this game, Fresno St will have the advantage of having played on in this stadium and on this Blue turf before....but, I think that Virginia will be able to adepted better to playing in the colder weather in Boise....then Fresno St players will be used to....Remember, warm weather team from California, playing in cold weather usually arent the best team to side with....The weather temp may work against the Bulldogs if the temp drops down to the low 20's...

SE # 5: This Virginia team is simply loaded on both sides of the ball with NFL caliber players...and it was rumored that many underclassman may be joining the outgoing seniors in entering next years NFL draft...If this is so, I would have to expect a all out performance by these star Cav players who will be using this game to impress the scouts one last time before the drafts...I still remember when Jr RB from Oregon St announced he would come out early and then went on to have a career game in the Las Vegas Bowl...I also remember how DB D' Angelo Hall from Va Tech used that game against California to show case his skills both on defense and on special teams...these players simply went all out....Virginia has several Sr's projected to be early round draft picks...and they will need to solidify their standings with a solid performance in this big bowl game...A lot of reasons and angles to find something to motivate this Virginia team in this game....Plus, with Groh's Bowl preparation he should be able to make sure they are ready for this one...

*SOME STAT, TRENDS, AND INFO:

-Fresno St is 8-15 ATS in their last 23 games after a bye week since 1992.
-Fresno St is currently 0-2 ATS, 2-5 ATS the last 3 seasons, and 7-14 ATS since 1992, when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest.
-Virginia is currently 2-0 ATS after a bye week.
-Virginia is 6-3 ATS as a FAV.
-Virginia is 2-0 SU and ATS in last 2 bowl games.
-Virginia is 2-0 ATS last 2 games played on neutral field.
-Virginia is 5-3 ATS in their last 8 games off a loss vs conf rival.
-Virginia is currently 1-0 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest.

-Fresno in their 4 games played on Turf this year averages just 290.7 ypg, while opponents averaged 343.5 ypg.
-Virginia in their 1 game played on Turf this year, averaged 504.00 ypg, while their opponent gained just 260 ypg.
-Fresno's Def in their last 5 games allowed 173.8 ypg rushing and 4.28 ypc...this was against 1-9 SJST, 4-7 Nevada, 8-5 Hawaii(only Bowl team), 3-8 Rice, and 3-8 SMU.
-Virginia's Def in their last 5 games allowed just 116.4 ypg rushing and 3.2 ypc....this was against 9-2 Va Tech(Bowl Team), 6-5 GT (Bowl Team), 8-3 Miami (Bowl Team),. 5-6 Maryland, and 1-9 Duke..

-Coach Al Groh was voted as the American Football Coaches Association 2004 Region 1 Coach of the Year....What makes this a special award, is that this is the only Coach of the Year award which is voted on exclusively by the coaches themselves....Coach of the Year's usually wont make an ass out of themselves on National TV vs inferior opponents...This award given to Groh by the coachs should be a reminder to Groh not to let this happen..
-Virginia has had the toughest schedule #28 to Fresno's #105.
-Fresno St only sold an estimated 2,500 tickets

*INTERESTING FINAL SIDE NOTE: The last thing which I found to be interesting facts regarding Fresno St's 3 losses they had on the year, was that it was against teams which possessed one, two, or a combination of these things....

1- A mobile running QB....ie, Boise St's Zambransky.
2- Multi-talented RB's......ie, Utep's Jackson and La Tech's Moats, both of who are a threat running as well as receiving.
3- Solid RB and Solid and Experienced O-Line.Combo.....ie, La Tech's O-Line and RB Moats.
4- A defense with Solid LB'ers......ie, Boise St with LB Hall, La Tech with LB Santiago, and Utep with LB's Rodriguez and Avalos..(these four LB'ers were rated as the Top 4 LB'ers in the Wac this year.)
5- A team with a Solid PK......ie, Boise St's PK Jones, and Utep's PK Schneider.
6- A Top notch clutch Receiver.......ie, Boise St's WR Acree, and Utep's Higgins.
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*Problem for Fresno St, is that this Virginia team possess every one of these things.....
1- QB Hagan's Mobility.
2- RB Pearman and Lundy are both running and receiving threats.
3- Solid RB's in Pearman and Lundy who run behind a very experienced O-Line, which is ranked as the 3rd best in the nation.,
4- Virginia's LB'ing Corp led by Brooks, Blackstock, Haley, and Parham....They are ranked as the Best LB'ing Corp.in the Nation.
5- Virginia's PK Hughes....was voted to Lou Grohza award list watch for the nations best PK.
6- Virginia's Mr Clutch....All-American TE Miller.

Bottom line in this one...Virginia will be able to dominate and completely control the Trenches from both sides of the ball..This is where everything will start for Virgiina's potent rush attack lead by probably the best tandem RB duo in the nation, who will simply find a lot of room to run behind their Superior O-Line led by All-American OG Elton Brown...where he goes, no one will be able to stop him...Not good for the Bulldogs defenders....On the defensive side of the field, the trenches is where the Bulldogs running offense will stall, as their tandem RB duo should find little to no success running, at will, against the nations Best LBing Corp lead by Soph All-American sensation Ahmad Brooks...He and his fellow stud LB'ers should be able to stuff Fresno's running game down, thus putting all the pressure on the Bulldogs QB Pinegar, who has already proven to be incappable of winning games for Fresno when put in this position and especially with this weak WR unit.....Once, Virginia controls the trenches..look for their other muti-talented weapons on offense, ie, All-American TE Miller, and All ACC RB Pearman, to start taking advantage of the Bulldogs defense selling out to stop the Cavs devastating ground attack...But, this one will all over once the Cavs running game, closes in on that magic rushing yardage number of 200 yards...If they exceed this mark, which I feel they will by the 3rd Q, this game will all but over for the scrappy but very outclassed and outmanned Fresno St Bulldogs....Virginia simply has to much size, talent, speed, and athleticism for this Bulldog team to try and match....Fresno St, will definately find out, after this game,..that they simply bit off more than they could chew this time...and that their reputation of being "Giant Killers" , should only be used when referring to those David Carr years....Take the Vaginia Cavaliers as a "BIG GAME PLAY"--MISMATCH BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH selection.....Good luck and LETS GO GET EM!....ALOHA CC. .

**Co-Captain** · 09-04-2005, 09:37 AM

"BIG GAME PLAY"--BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH on:

HAWAII WARRIORS -3 (EZ Blowout Winner!)

*KEY FACTOR # 1: Sr QB TIMMY CHANG AND Sr WR CHAD OWENS....Enough said!

-Ok Gang..I am going to keep this one simple...I have been sharing with all of you a lot of info and insights this whole year regarding the Warriors...and most of them all relate to their games at home, no matter who their opponents are, with the exceptions of some big non-conf opponents...Because of this, I am not going to repeat them all over again...I am just going to start by asking these two questions....First question, who will stop Braddah Timmy Chang, the most prolific passer in NCAA history playing in his last game ever in a Warrior uniform and in front of all his family, friends, and fans....The second question, is who is going to stop Braddah Chad Owens, also playing in his final game in a Warrior uniform and also in front of all his family, friends, and fans?...Hmmm, do you think this 106th ranked defense against the pass that this Blazers team has can stop them...I say HELL NO!...But, just for argument purposes, lets just take a look at what they have done recently....

QB Timmy Chang currently the NCAA's leader in career passing yards has a total of 16,667 yards going into his last game....But, besides holding this prestigious record, he also holds the career records for total offense (16,514 yards), pass attemtps (2,390), completions (1,357), and interceptions (80)....Very impressive performance coming from a local boy from these beautiful islands....Still, lets take a look at what he has done in his most recent games, the last 3 to be exact, and the 3 which he needed to win in order to go bowling in his final year as QB for the Warriors....Timmy in his last 3 games threw for 1,197 yards and 14 touchdowns leading the Warriors to close out the season on a 3-0 run...After the Fresno St debacle on the mainland...Coach Jones told Timmy to do one thing, and one thing only, "Shoot for the Stars and let it all hang out," well as you can see by Timmy's last 3 performance's especially his last two vs the Big Ten's NW and Mich St...he did just that Baby!..

Now on to his partner in crime, Sr SB Chad Owens...not only was he voted to his second straight, 1st Team WAC selection..but he also was voted to several All-American teams as a 2nd team WR and 2nd team All-purpose selection...and deservenly so...Owens is the Warriors Heart and Soul, both leader on and off the field and he is like Timmy, they do their talking on the field...Chad Owens in his last two games vs Big Ten opponents in NW and Mich St totally lit them the hell up...More specifically, this is what he did...Vs Northwestern's defense, Owens caught 9 passes for 155 yards and 4 TDs...and then the following week vs Mich St's defense he caught 13 passes for 283 yards and 4 TDs, while also providing the Warriors another threat as one of the nation's most dangerous punt returners.

Side Note: Oh yeah...and dont forget about Hawaii's other Sr receiving corp who are just as responsible for moving and making this Warrior air attack as potent as it is...ie, Sr WR Welch 4th in receiving for the Warriors this year....and Sr WR Komine, 3rd in receiving on this Warrior team and ranked 6th in the WAC in receiving yardage....And also making a possible return in this game is Sr SB Se'e Poumele who was Hawaii's third leading receiver before going out early in the season with an injury...His return here would simply give the Warriors one more of the many weapons to attack that Blazer defense.

*KEY FACTOR # 2 : Hawaii's Running Game Led by its Two Sr RB's West "Big Boy" Keliikipi and Sr RB Mike "Little Man" Brewster.

Yes I know, Hawaii stat wise does not have the numbers to scare anyone...but, what teams always fail to realize, is that this is not because the Warriors cant run the ball effectively, it is because they chose not to run it a lot....Big Difference...and in my opinion, good opportunity for them to take advantage of opponents defenses that is fully concerned with only stopping Timmy Chang and that Hawaii deadly passing game....Sr RB Keliikipi is a monster of a back weighing in over 280 lbs and who can catch, run, and block out of the backfield...He showed his worth vs NW and Mich St when he bulldozed several NW and Mich St defenders on his way to the scoring 3 TDs and rushing for 98 yards and 4.8 ypc average...Sr RB Mike Brewster, the scatback of the two..is also a solid back out of the backfield both running and receiving and he posted 64 yards rushing for 4.6 ypc average in both those games...but he also caught 6 passes for 35 yards and 7 ypc average which is very important in keeping those defender honest and aware that they just cant pin their ears back and rush Chang without worrying about these two backs catching it out of the backfield...In fact, with all the receivers that the WAC conf has to offer, RB Brewster is still ranked 28th among all receivers in the conference...I will bet that these two Sr will definately have their chances to shine in this one, their last harrah in Warrior uniforms, as well...

*KEY FACTOR # 3 : Hawaii's Bending But Never Breaking Defense At Home.

This year, the Warriors has had the unfortunate pleasure of being tagged the worst defense in the nation...expecially against the run where they are ranked 117th out of 117 Div 1A teams giving up 259.3 ypg on the ground this year...True, True...the Warrior defense have given up a lot of yards on the ground this year...but most of them came on the road, and most were when the Warriors were playing with a very thinned out defensive roster....This time of year and in this game is wee bit different, in that all of the Warriors wounded on defense should be back to play in this game..and this one is AT HOME, big difference...

At home, the Warriors on defense definately do step it up a notch and comes out to play with a hell of a lot more pride, intensity, and enthusiasm then they do when on the road...that is for sure...Having just a solid running offense to exploit this porous defense of the Warrors, at Home, is not enough to break them....La Tech with RB Moats, Nevada with RB Kretschmer, NW with RB Herron, and Mich St with RB's Cobb, Teague, and QB Stanton found this out...To beat the Warriors at home in their House, you have to be able to play with more Pride, more Intensity, and with more enthusiasm then the Warriors will be playing with...having the better talent, beating better teams, or coming from the better Conf will not guarantee you a victory on this turf...No Way, No How!

Now, does the Blazers have what it will take to beat the Warriors in their own House in this special Bowl game, which I remind you, is going to be the sending off party for this states most favorite and highly decorated team of local boy Warriors, in QB Timmy Chang and SB Owens to name a few....Will the Blazers have what it takes to overshadow their play...The Blazers do have a very solid offense led by QB Hackney and WR White...but after that, I dont see much that can match these two players in keeping up the pressure on the Warriors both on defense and on offense....UAB's offense hasnt scored more than 21 points in its last four games and I dont think that they want to get into a shootout with Hawaii here, who is very happy and very well equiped with many weapons to mix up the offense and keep UAB guessing all game long...I dont see UAB as having the capability of depending on other players to carry the team other then the Hackney to White combination that has found much success this year...I expect that the Warriors will plays some double coverage on White and also to blitz a hell of a lot to disrupt Hackney not giving him or White to hook up those big long passes that they have done all year long....

Side Note: This year, UAB's weakness on offense has been in their O-Line protection...and it showed as there was little to no experience outside of Matt Batusic and Andy Galloway and no depth whatsoever. It's asking a ton for this group to match the production of last year's performance when the line only allowed 14 sacks...This years Big Ugly's Unit for the Blazers gave up a whopping 32 sacks on the year, which tied them for 12th most in the nation....This is the weakness I expect the Warriors smaller and quicker blitzing players to try and exploit, keeping Hackney from sitting in the pocket where he has the ability to rip any defensive secondary apart...The Warriors wont allow him to do that, and this could play a big part in stopping the Blazers solid passing attack.

*SOME SITUATIONAL EDGES: favoring the Warriors...

1- 26 Seniors say a Final Goodbye in their last game as a Warrior....Most notebly QB Timmy Chang, SB Chad Owens, CB Elimimian, RB Keliikipi and Brewster, WR Komine, Welch, and Poumele....these guys put Hawaii's offense on the map and kept it there for all the fans of Hawaii to enjoy for many many years to come...they will want to go out winners and I am expecting that the home crowd will do whatever they can to ensure that they do as well...

2- Many many distractions for the first time Bowl bound Blazers to have to deal with....coming to Hawaii in itself is enough to make any team lose their focus on playing a game..just wait till they get a fill of the other things that will make them continually lose their complete focus on this game.

3- Weather changes...just like I always mentioned, about when warm weather teams who must go to play in cold weather states...the same can be said when cold weather teams must now come to play in the Hot and Humid weather of these tropical islands...

4- Home field advantage...Enough Said!

*SOME STAT, TRENDS, AND INFO....

-UAB currently 0-2 ATS after a bye week.
-UAB 2-4 ATS last 6 games played on Turf.
-UAB 2-4 ATS in last 6 road games
-Warriors 6-2 ATS in Home games this year.
-Warriors 3-1 ATS vs Non-Conf opponents.
-Warriors 2-0 ATS as a Fav of 3.5 to 10 pts.

-Warriors averaging 42.7 ppg, 472.6 ypg, at Home this year.
-UAB averaging 26.7 ppg, 336.3 ypg, on the Road this year.
-Warriors won 4 of its last 5 games.
-UAB won just 2 out of their last 5 games.

Bottom line...this will be the last home game for all the Warrior's local stars to shine for the last time in a Warrior uniform...and it will be the last time, in awhile that we local Warrior fans will be able to see such a dominant offense like the one that these local Warrior players had throughout their careers, led by Timmy, Chad, West, Gerald, Britton, Justin, Uriah, Se'e..that we will see for some time again....Sure, there will be more local boys to step up and into the spotlight, but I dont think there will ever be another recruiting class that was filled will this much local talent who all, at one time or another, shined brightly as they led the way to a Warrior victory....This is a special Warrior class..and the people of this state definately knows this..and the atmosphere here in the islands is definately starting to show the appreciation for them as well....I simply cannot see the Warriors, at all, coming out flat as they did in their first and second Hawaii Bowl games....This one is for the 26 Seniors who will definately want to go out with one last bang....They didnt fight for their post season lives in their last 3 games, especially coming from behind vs the Big Ten's NW and Mich St, only to lose this one, No Fricken Way!...Believe That!....Take the Warriors as a "BIG GAME PLAY"--BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH selection.... Merry Christmas and LETS GO GET EM!....ALOHA CC. :christmas

**Co-Captain** · 09-04-2005, 09:40 AM

"BIG GAME PLAY" --BOWL GAME OF THE WEEK selection on:

Oregon St -3.5 (EZ 38-21 BLOWOUT WINNER!)

--Ok, below are some Key Factors and Situational Edges that I feel will favor the Beavers Big in this game between the two...I also have listed some Stats, Trends, and other Info that support my play on Oregon St today. So without further adui lets get to them.

*KEY FACTOR # 1: Oregon St's High Flying Pass Attack led by Sr QB Derrick Anderson and WR Mike Hass.....

This matchup reminds me of the Hawaii/UAB game played in the Hawaii Bowl, where you had the Warriors Top Ranked Pass Attack led by QB Timmy Chang and WR Chad Owens, who went against UAB's 106th ranked passing defense....Hmmm, can you say deja vu?....To keep this one simple and to the point, Oregon St has the 8th ranked passing offense in the nation, led by one of the Pac-10's all-time passing leaders in QB Anderson, and who is averaging 304 ypg through the air will definately have a huge advantage on offense as they will be facing a Notre Dame defense who is currently ranked 114th in the nation in pass defense, giving up 274.27 ypg passing....Can you say, Bombs Away.

QB Anderson, like QB Timmy Chang of Hawaii, has had one of those stellar careers passing the ball around a lot...In fact, the passing numbers that Anderson was able to put up in his career is considered to be one of the most productive in Pac-10 history...Currently he has passed for a total of 10,891 yards and 75 TDs...He also has thrown 57 interceptions as well, but when you throw it up this many times, interceptions should be expected.....Still, what makes Anderson's accomplishments that much more impressive as well, is that he, just like Timmy Chang, had to do it without the benefit of some kind of running game which usually helps to make the passing game more effective and efficient....But, with the loss of running sensation Stephen Jackson, who left school early to enter the NFL and now plays for St Louis, Anderson, this year was left to carry the Beaver's offense on the strength of his arm and his ability to led an almost entirely one-dimensional offense to success...Oregon State, this year, ranked second-to-last nationally in rushing, gaining just 75.27 yards per game....But, Anderson, just like Hawaii's Timmy Chang, simply possessed an overwhelming athletic ability at passing the ball with a lot of success, making up for their other areas of ineptness, most times, in their inability to move it on the ground....This ability seem to have paid off for him as he was able to have his best season of his career passing for 3,257 yards and 25 TDs....Which definately is a big reason why the Beavers were able to turn their season around in the 2nd half, to still qualify for a bowl game, despite playing one of the nation's toughest schedules....Anderson got hot down the stretch winning their last game vs in-state rival Oregon which they needed to win in order to qualify for a season ending and college career ending bowl game....

Although Anderson is credited a lot with being the major reason for the 6-5 Beavers to go bowling today, he, just like Timmy Chang once again, couldnt have done it without a partner in crime....For Timmy, his partner in crime was SB Chad Owens, a former walk on player who reached All-American status with his receiving and special teams abilities.....For Derek, his partner in crime is Jr WR Mike Hass, also a former walk on, that teamed with him to produce one of the nation's unstoppable QB to WR connections....WR Hass this year, ranks third nationally in average receiving yards per a game with 115.8...He also finished the season with 81 receptions for 1274 yards and 7 TDs...and ranks 1st in the Pac-10 in total receiving yards, along with QB Anderson ranking 1st in the Pac-10 in total passing yards,...just like how Timmy and Chad finished ranked in their conf.....But, probably the best similarity that QB Anderson and WR Hass has with QB Chang and WR Owens, was in the way both of them finished off their regular season on a 3 game tear through the air...as both Anderson and Hass came up with some of their best performances over these final three weeks of the year,...Anderson shooting for the stars and Hass catching everything insight creating an unstoppable tandem....which enabled them to win and qualify for a Bowl game, not only for their team, but also for themselves to enjoy one last Bowl game to cap off their outstanding college careers...This game will be Anderson and Hass, national coming out party and the ND secondary will provide the perfect opponent to propell these two to Iconic status....Hmmm, just like what UAB's secondary did for Timmy and Chad...LOL....Damn, this is definately deja vu in the makings...

Anyways, despite Oregon St's offense being one-dimensional, few teams in the second half of the season were able to stop the connection of Derek Anderson to Mike Hass...and if Hawaii's blowout win over UAB at the hands of the unstoppable connection of Chang to Owens, who ended their seasons in very similar fashion as Anderson to Hass did, is any indication of how this one could also end up....I say ND better get ready for more embarrassing highlights and segments of how their once storied football program is officially no more...

ND Weakness on defense is against the pass:..Currently, the Irish rank 114th in the nation in pass defense...and having to face the nation's 8th best air attack is not a good thing at all....In all the 5 games which ND has lost this year, their porous secondary allowed over 300 yards passing in all 5 of those games....More recently, in ND's last two games played, against USC's 11th ranked passing offense and Pitt's 25th ranked passing offense, the Irish gave up 10 TDs (5 to USC's Leinart and 5 to Pitt's Palko)...This was also the only two times in Notre Dame football history that the Irish defense has allowed an opposing QB to throw 5 TDs on them.....Vs this QB for the Beavers, they better get ready to record a very possible third consecutive game giving up 5 TD passes to an opposing teams QB...Passing is what the Beavers offense does best and they will continue to live and die by it...

Side Note # 1: QB Anderson threw for 322 yards in last year's Las Vegas Bowl against New Mexico and 319 yards in the 2002 Insight Bowl loss to Pittsburgh.

Side Note # 2: WR Hass ripped up Boise St's for 12 catches for 293 yards and 3 TDs, and also torched Arizona St's secondary for 172 yards on 14 receptions and 1 TD....It is simply mind boggling to even think of what he could do to this very generous ND secondary....

Side Note # 3: QB Anderson closed out this year in typical Anderson style bombing away for 1,015 yards in the final three games with 9 TDs....Notre Dame's secondary will definately get a major air assult attack by Anderson, who must be licking his chops right about now.

Side Note # 4: QB Anderson in his last game threw for 351 yards and TDs, in their 50-21 rout of in-state rival Oregon, which also helped them to clinched a bowl bid.

Side Note # 5: (injury info) ND's Sack leader Justin Tuck is considered questionable because of a lingering knee problem. In three seasons, Tuck has collected a school-record 24 1/2 sacks. This year he has 47 tackles, including 14 for lost yardage. He has another year of eligibility, but hasn't said whether he will return or enter the NFL draft.

*KEY FACTOR # 2: Oregon St's Solid Pass Defense vs ND's Offense...

OSU has definitley turned things around having won 5 of its last 6 games...and beside this being the result of QB Anderson's arm or WR Hass's great hands...A lot of the Beavers success can also be attributed to their studs in the defensive secondary, who's seasons play has ranked them 28th in the nation in pass defense allowing only 194.09 ypg through the air this year....This pass defense also has only allowed opposing pass offenses to complete a LOW of 43% completion rate on the year...SIMPLY OUTSTANDING!....They have also been able to record 18 interceptions on the year, which ties them for 2nd in the Pac-10 conf, and only 1 pick behind # 1 ranked USC....

ND's pass attack led by Soph QB Quinn is currently ranked 54th in the nation, averaging just 218 ypg through the air...Quinn has thrown 15 TDs to 9 ints...and is completing just 53.7% of his attempts....First, if ND needs to play catch up after QB Anderson shreds their defense through the air...this average, and lack of fire power in the passing game behind Quinn will not be enough to keep up with the Beavers...Second, it wont be easy in the first place burning this secondary who has gained a lot of experience and earned their stripes playing in the pass happy Pac-10 conf, who definately is in no short supply, whatsoever, of top quality WR's and QB's...

Furthermore, QB Quinn and ND may find it even more difficult moving the ball through the air, especially if they must do it without two of their top three WR's who are injured, in Matt Shelton (knee) and Maurice Stovall (hamstring)....Both are still listed as "doubtful'' for this game....If they cant go, ND will definately struggle as Shelton has been ND's deep threat with 19 catches for 518 yards and six touchdowns this year....and Stovall, who is third on the team with 21 catches for 313 yards and one touchdown, will hurt production for sure.....How can ND hurt this Beaver defense, inorder to keep this game close, especially if these guys cant go tonight....Will their 77th nationally ranked run offense, who is averaging 133.64 ypg, and 3.4 ypc average, be enough?...I seriously dont think so, and here are some reasons why..

The Beaver's run defense is also a solid one which ranks 30th in the nation allowing just 122.64 ypg, 3.5 ypc, and which have given up just 9 TDs this year...which is 3rd fewest in the Pac-10....A big reason for this success upfront is due to NFL prospect DE Swancutt, who was just named the Pac-10 Co-Defensive Player of the Year, and was also the only unanimous selection on this year's All-Pac-10 Conference Football Team...Some other impressive stats by Swancutt is that he ranks 2nd in the Pac-10 in both sacks (11.5) and tackles for loss (18.5)....He also has a career total of 37 sacks and 59.5 TFLs....This year he also forced two fumbles and had 8 QB hurries, even with being double team in almost every game this year...I expect that he will be very effective in causing problems and harassing ND's Quinn today.....

Another advantage that this solid Beaver secondary will provide, is in run support to keep ND's ground game in check....The Beaver's solid corners in Williams and Browner, who may be two of the best cover guys in the Pac-10, will be able to play man against whomever the Irish will use in place of the injuried starters...When defenses such as Oregon St has corners who have the ability to play man coverage with outside WR's.. it allows their safeties to play up closer to the LOS to give more run support or even to utilize different blitzing schemes...Either way, it is a big advantage for a defense when their CB's have the ability to lock down and shut down an opponents WRs...I feel that Williams and Browner definately should be able to handle, on their own, whomever the Irish put out there....Expect Safety Mitch Meeuwsen to provide some solid run support when these corners play man coverage.

Side Note # 1: Oregon St's defense is surrendering only 316.7 total ypg....and has recorded 30 takeaways, including 18 interceptions...

Side Note # 2: Sr Safety Meeuwsen leads this solid pass defense with 6 ints...and Soph Safety Piscitelli is right behind him with 5 ints on the year..

Side Note # 3: (injury report) Notre Dame may be without two of its top three wide receivers for Tonights game..

*SOME SITUATIONAL EDGES FAVORING OREGON ST:

-SE 1: Oregon St definately has some solid NFL prospects who may be playing in their last game tonight...I expect them to showcase their talent with a big performance tonight....Tonight game will also be the national coming-out party for Jr WR Hass, so definately expect him to have a big night, as he torches this weak ND secondary..

-SE 2: Just like how Timmy Chang and Chad Owens from Hawaii wanted to end their very prestigious college careers with a Big Bang...I am expecting the same kind of motivation, to do the same, from Oregon St's Sr QB Anderson....This is the last harrah for him and I definately see him going out in style with a big game passing tonight...Also, inaddition to wanting to go out a winner, Anderson will definately want to have a big game to impress the scouts, who definately will be looking at him as a potential draft pick...This also goes for others like Hass, Sr DE Swancutt, Sr Safety Meeuwsen, and the others who have intentions to possibly leave school early to jump to the NFL....a lot on the line for these guys, besides just going out on a winning note...Big key to motivation..

-SE 3: The Beaver's ended their season on a tear, playing solid on both sides of the ball, while winning 5 of their last 6 games...ND didnt end their regular season on a strong note by any means, losing 3 of their last 5 games....The Irish's last two games of the season, which they lost, was probably the worst defeats for them both mentally and physically...ie, a loss to Pitt, in their last home game of the year,..a game they should of won...They fought back hard to seize the lead, only to end up blowing it, losing in the end by 4 pts....That game definately took a toll on them, which mentally very draining on them...In the following weeks game, which was also their last regular season game of the season played at USC,..the Irish, coming off that heartbreaking loss at home to Pitt, came into Trojan land and were simply destroyed physically on both sides of the ball...and this is what, I feel, put the last nail in the Irish's coffin for the year.

-SE 4: Who knows how exactly ND feels about all of the things that went on at the end of their season?....And who really knows how ND will play without Willingham on the sidelines?...Oregon St's mindset should definately be a whole lot better than the Irish players though, and especially due to them coming off a solid season ending run, which was also topped off by a rout of in-state rival Oregon in their season finale...The Irish ended their season, as mentioned above, losing their last two games in terrible fashion..Then things got even worst as they then ended up losing their coach as well....The circus which then surrounded ND's football programs future, just started getting worse as the nation all decided to chime in on what should of or shouldnt have happened, etc...This definately was not a good time to be an ND player, even with the hiring of a new head football coach....The school may have gotten answers for their questions and concerns,..but these players for ND, who were the most directly affected by the firing of Willingham, are the ones still left with many serious questions and concerns, which wont be answered until next seasons spring practices...Not a fair situation at all to them, and this uncertainty will definately be on their minds before, during, and definately after this bowl game vs Oregon St...Irish, will not have complete focus on this game at all....

-SE 5: Disadvantage for ND in this game, is that they dont have an explosive attack to be able to keep up or withstand a barage by Oregon St's explosive offensive attack, led by Anderson and Hass...If they should get up early and often on the Irish, forcing them to go to their passing game...then their weakness on defense will play right into the strengths of the Beaver's on offense...And, the recent injuries to key personal, on both the offense and defense for the Irish, just made this probable bad situation, more of a guarantee on happening...Not good news at all of Irish fans.

*SOME STATS, TRENDS, AND INFO.....

-Oregon St is 6-0 ATS after playing a conf game.
-Oregon St is 5-1 ATS as a FAV.
-Oregon St is 3-0 ATS as a Fav of 3.5 to 10 pts.
-Oregon St is 3-1 ATS in games played on grass fields.
-Oregon St is 4-0 ATS off a win over a conf rival.
-ND is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after 2 or more consecutive SU losses.
-ND is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 bowl games.

-Oregon St went 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.
-ND went 2-3 SU and ATS in their last 5 games.
-Oregon St's Defense in 4 games played on grass is holding opponents offense's to a Low of 282.5 ypg, 3.9 ypp, and 20.5 ppg.
-ND's Offense in their last 5 road games is averaging just 20.4 ppg, and only 302.8 ypg.
-Oregon St's Defense on the Road is holding opponents to 113 yards rushing and just 42.9% completions.
-ND's Defense on the Road is allowing opponents to complete 60% of their pass attempts.

Bottom line in this one...Oregon St is simply in better shape both mentally and physically then ND is, at this time....The Beaver's also ended their season clicking on all cylinders, during the 2nd hf of the season and almost got the upset of # 1 USC, in the process, as well....There strengths on offense which is in their passing game, led by Sr QB Anderson finished the season ranked in the top 10 in the nation, while ND's weakness on defense, their pass defense, finished the season ranked at an embarrassing 114th in the nation...Oregon St is simply also the better team, due to their surviving playing the nation's toughest schedule, and still being able to get bowl qualified...The same cannot be said for ND, who had problems down the stretch which ultimately led to their coach being fired and them wondering about their football futures at ND...The Irish's only bright spot is that their defense has been solid against the run, but then an injury to their best defensive player just put another damper on their already unfortunate season...Still, it wouldnt have matter, one way or another, as the Beaver's simply have to many potent weapons to exploit ND's weaknesses all game long, leaving the Irish with to little options to answer them back...I simply cant see any reason really, why the Beavers shouldnt be able to hand the Irish another ass whooping like they did in the last bowl game they played eachother...ND teams, most times, have been known to play with a lot of pride and to the end, but after what happened to them recently, I have to think that to much have been taken out of them, mentally, physically, and emotionally to even allow them to care enough about another game, even if it is a bowl game...Remember, at 30% of them voted to skip this bowl game entirely...and this I feel will just spread on to the rest of the team, as they come flat and a very uninspired...which I see Oregon St using to their advantage in turning this one into another DEJA VU ROUT!...Take Oregon St as a "BIG GAME PLAY"--BOWL GAME OF THE WEEK selection....Good Luck and LETS GO GET EM!....ALOHA CC..
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"BIG GAME PLAY"--BOWL GAME OF THE WEEK selection..... RESULT: EZ 38-21 BLOWOUT WINNER!

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