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2005 WAC Preview
A new era in WAC history begins this year as realignment has left the conference with nine teams, three of which transfer over from the Sun Belt. The league says goodbye to UTEP, Tulsa, SMU, and Rice and welcomes in Utah State, New Mexico State, and Idaho. According to the Power Ratings, the WAC takes a hit in composite strength, but should benefit with some new and more regionalized rivalries. The conference will be trying to continue a stretch since 2001 that has seen it compile the best bowl game winning percentage of any other league. Including three straight wins by Fresno State, the WAC is 7-4 in bowl games, good for 63.6%, during that time frame.
The WAC remains an extremely top heavy league for 2005 as Boise State, Fresno State, and to a lesser degree, Hawaii, stand as favorites to win the league title. Boise State is the defending champion and will enter the season on a tremendous 26 game conference win streak. As of now, the only impending date on the schedule that figures to be a threat to that streak is the contest at Fresno State, scheduled for November. Other than that showdown, it should be smooth sailing for the two teams at the top. Elsewhere, Hawaii is a tier below and begins the first year in the post-Timmy Chang era, while Louisiana tech and Nevada will look to take advantage of a weak league and earn bowl bids for the first time in many years. In San Jose, Dick Tomey’s arrival has Spartans fans optimistic for a UTEP-like turnaround of a year ago, while Utah State, Idaho, and New Mexico State likely have no aspirations other than getting acclimated to their new surroundings in 2005.
Fresno State
Play On: @Oregon 9/17
With 16 returning starters, Coach Pat Hill’s teams usually starts fast out of the gate. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS against Pac-10 teams. With Oregon playing USC at home the following week, a wandering eye to the future gives Fresno State a chance to pull an upset.
Play Against: @Hawaii 10/29
The long sojourn to the islands is a difficult trip for Fresno State. The visitor is 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS in this heated rivalry.
Boise State
Play On: Nevada 10/29
The Broncos are 5-0 SU and ATS against Nevada over the last five years, with the average score being 51-11. Boise State is the play.
Play Against: @Oregon State 9/10
Last year Boise State broke through and defeated the Beavers 53-34 in a game that was not that close. Anticipate Oregon State to be prepared this time around. The Broncos are 2-8 ATS vs. the Pac-10.
Hawaii
Play On: Fresno State 10/29
The Warriors are 7-3 ATS over the last decade against Fresno State. The Bulldogs 70 points last year were the most scored against Hawaii since 1848. These opposing coaches have little use for one another, should be a WACked –out contest.
Play Against: @Michigan State 9/10
This will be the second most difficult non-conference road game for Hawaii over the last 10 years.(USC 2003 is first) The Warriors first trip into the mainland is unkind with a 1-9 SU mark and a 3-7 ATS record. Hawaii upset Spartans 41-38 as six point home dogs last December.
Louisiana Tech
Play On: Boise State 11/26
The Bulldogs will probably be 17+ points’ home dogs for this WAC contest. With the home team delivering a 5-1 ATS record in this series, Co. Bicknell’s boys worth a solid look at Ruston, this late in the season.
Play Against: @Florida 9/10
The swamp is never a good place to visit, particularly when filled with hungry Gators. This is especially tough when the trip is to Gainesville and you are 6-16 ATS in your last 23 road games.
New Mexico State
Play On: UTEP 9/3
After being slammed 45-0 in 2004 by UTEP, a significant home underdog spot is forecasted. New passing offense under Coach Hal Mumme keeps Aggies within the number.
Play Against: @Boise State 11/5
Smurf Turf and speedy Broncos too much for WAC’s newest member New Mexico State. Aggies are 6-12 ATS in November coming from weak Sun Belt Conference.
Nevada
Play On: UNLV 9/17
In-state rival spanked Wolf Pack last year 48-13. Rebels have new coach and return only 8 starters from last year’s mediocre team. Coach Ault has Nevada on the prowl, with the duo of QB Jeff Rowe to WR Nichiren Flowers ready to deliver knock out punch.
Play Against: Fresno State 11/26
This has not a good match-up for Nevada, who has surrendered 48 PPG over the last six years to Fresno State. Nevada is 2-6 SU and ATS in home finales.
San Jose State
Play On: New Mexico State 11/19
New Coach Dick Tomey should have put his stamp on San Jose by this point of the season. Despite small crowds, the Spartans are 7-2 ATS in November home games.
Play Against: @Boise State 10/15
Last year San Jose missed a 38-yard field goal to beat Boise State at home. No such results this season, as the Broncos stampede the Spartans at home.
Idaho
Play On: Utah State 10/1
This will in all probability be the only game that Idaho will be favored in 2005. Vandals take what should have been a win last year, in convincing fashion at home this time around.
Play Against: @Washington State 9/1
The Vandals return 16 starters but will be no match for the Cougars. Washington State has 9 offensive players back including QB Swogger, this allows them to name the final score in this Northwest contest.
Utah State
Play On: @New Mexico State 11/26
The underdog is a 100%, 6-0 against the number in this battle of former Sun Belt Conference members. Utah State is 11-3 ATS since 1990 vs. the team with the same nickname as they have.
2005 Big 12 Preview
Last season was another huge campaign for the Big 12 and its football programs as the conference placed seven teams in bowl games, including the BCS title contest. That accomplishment marked the 4th time in the last five years that a Big 12 school played for the national title. Four of the seven Big 12 schools won their postseason contests, the most notable being the thrilling come from behind win by Texas in the Rose Bowl. There was also success on the non-conference landscape as the Big 12 logged an impressive 28-8 mark in non-league tilts. Oklahoma won the conference championship for the second straight season, by routing Colorado of the North Division in the title game. Speaking of the North Division, the race for that top spot proved to be one of the most captivating of any Div 1-A league as all six teams finished within two games of one another.
For 2005, the conference loses a load of NFL type talent but will remain strong. Oklahoma and Texas figure to be the teams to beat again, and the Longhorns may finally hold the edge over the Sooners, boasting the league’s most explosive player in QB Vince Young, who ranks just ahead of OU’s RB Adrian Peterson. Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State also come back loaded but are cursed by having to compete with the two front runners in the South Division year in and year out. In the North, the race should be wide open again as no team has clearly distance itself from the others since last season. On the coaching front, Oklahoma State was the only school to make a change, as Les Miles’ departure left a void that was eventually filled by Mike Gundy. Realignment has thankfully kept its hands off of this conference, meaning the Big 12 should be as strong as ever in 2005. In fact, instant replay will be the only recognizable change. Don’t be surprised to see either Texas or Oklahoma competing for the national title in the Rose Bowl on January 4th, 2006. As usual, the big game to circle on the calendar involves those two powers in the “Red River Shootout”, this year scheduled for October 8th.
Texas
Play On: Baylor 11/12
Texas is 19-2 SU and 15-5-1 ATS against the Bears. The Longhorns have outscored Baylor by an average of 47-8 since 1998.
Play Against: Colorado 10/15
Texas might well be off possible win against Oklahoma for the first time six years, which places them in unfamiliar territory as a team. Colorado is a strong road dog under Coach Barnett, who is 14-7 ATS in that scenario with the Buffaloes.
Oklahoma
Play On: Texas A&M 11/12
This strictly has been a home cookin’ series. The home squad is 11-1 ATS in the last dozen years.
Play Against: Texas 10/8
For the first time in six years Texas actually has better talent then Oklahoma. Longhorns break through and beat the Sooners in the “Red River Shootout”.
Texas A&M
Play On: Baylor 10/1
Last year’s overtime loss at Waco 35-34, will serve as a reminder in the Big 12 opener for both teams.
Play Against: @Clemson 9/3
Clemson was held to 192 total yards, was sacked 5 times and were -4 in turnover margin. Texas A&M has a return engagement to find out why they call the it “Death Valley” at Clemson. Aggies 2-12 ATS in road openers.
Texas Tech
Play On: Kansas State 10-15
Red Raiders are 4-1-1 ATS against talent depleted Wildcats. Texas Tech is 16-7-1 ATS as a home favorite under Coach Leach and an incredible 20-3 against the number as a HF of 3 or more vs. a team with a .375 winning percentage or better at Lubbock.
Play Against: Kansas 10/1
This will be the first reasonable opponent for the Red Raiders after playing two D-1 AA teams. Texas Tech will likely be a 17-20 favorite, which could be too much in their Big 12 lid-lifter.
Oklahoma State
Play On: Texas Tech 11/12
The “chalk” in this series is 6-1 ATS. The Cowboys usually send the home folks happy with a 9-3-1 ATS mark in the final home game at Stillwater.
Play Against: @ Iowa State 10/22
With this being the second of a four week stretch that has @ Texas A&M, Texas and
@ Oklahoma, the Cowboys very easily could overlook the Cyclones. Iowa State returns seven starters on each side of the ball and will have a big homecoming crowd in their favor.
Baylor
Play On: @SMU 9/3
Baylor should be a single digit away favorite for the first time since 1998. These Bears need to take wins where they can find them, Baylor wins handily.
Play Against: @Texas A&M 10/1
The unfathomable upset of the Aggies as 25 point home dogs sets up a bad situation for Baylor who lost in College Station, 73-10, two years ago.
Colorado
Play On: @ Kansas State 10/29
With November just around the corner, this is the Buffs time of year. With K-State down in talent this year, expect Co. Barnett’s boys to go to 8-3 ATS at Manhattan.
Play Against: Colorado State 9/3
The Buffaloes act like this in-state rivalry is a bother most years. Consider that Colorado will be a double-digit favorite and you will find the Buffs winning the game just not covering the number. The favorite is 1-8 ATS in this series.
Nebraska
Play On: Texas Tech 10/8
After suffering the worst loss in school history to Texas Tech 70-10 last season, this will be the Cornhuskers 5th straight home game and the most important.
Play Against: @Baylor 10/15
After starting the season with five consecutive home games, playing your first road game in mid-October can be disconcerting even in Waco. Off what will likely be a high scoring affair against the Red Raiders, keep in mind the Nebraska is 4-21-1 ATS after they allow 27 or more points.
Iowa State
Play On: Baylor 10/8
Iowa State has had plenty of problems with Nebraska, whom they play the week before, yet should have no problems being ready to take out Baylor. The Cyclones have won four straight with the favored team posting a 4-2 ATS mark.
Play Against: @Nebraska 10/1
The Huskers always give Iowa State fits. The Cyclones have lost by an average of 29 points in Lincoln and Nebraska will hold nothing back after losing as a road favorite
34-27 in Ames last season.
Kansas State
Play On: Kansas 10/8
Wildcats off 1st non-winning season in over a decade, lost at Kansas last year after defeating them by an average of 40 PPG over the last 10 years. Hello Dorothy, your not in Lawrence anymore.
Play Against: Colorado 10/29
Colorado brings out the worst in Co. Snyder squads. Posting a 3-7 ATS record against the Buffaloes, keep in mind that K-State is 1-6 ATS as a favorite of less the 5-points.
Kansas
Play On: Iowa State 11/19
The home team is a delectable 11-2-1 against the spread in this Big 12 series.
Play Against: @ Kansas State 10/8
Ending long streaks come with a price, after Kansas ended a 1-10 SU and ATS record last year against K-State as 3-point home dogs. Wildcats Coach Snyder is a very unforgiving man.
Missouri
Play On: @ Oklahoma State 10/8
Off a probable Texas loss, Missouri heads to Stillwater, where the favorite is only 2-7 ATS. Tigers take comfort in knowing they are 6-2 SU and ATS vs. the Cowboys.
Play Against: @ Kansas State 11/19
The Tigers have nothing in the tank when facing K-State. Losers of 12 straight to the Wildcats, Missouri is a paltry 3-7 ATS in the last ten games against Coach Snyder.
2005 ACC Preview
The addition of Boston College to the ACC in 2005 only enhances its position as the strongest and deepest conference in college football. This type of depth can serve as a detriment though for its elite teams hoping to compete for the BCS title. Such was the case in 2004, when Virginia Tech won the league with a 7-1 mark. The task of emerging from the league schedule unscathed is highly difficult considering the strength of schedule within, making it tough to stay atop of the BCS standings with unbeaten teams from weaker conferences like the Pac 10 and Big East. Now granted, Tech dropped an earlier non-conference clash to USC, but essentially it was the NC State loss that ended its national championship hopes. The problem becomes even greater in 2005, as the now 12-team league qualifies to host a conference championship game, thus adding yet another difficult game on the schedule. On the flip side of the argument, any team that CAN distance itself and run the table in this conference gains a near automatic berth in the BCS title game in any given year.
Preseason indicators offer no evidence that any particular team is ready to trump the rest of the ACC in 2005. Each team faces its own concerns, with Florida State having recent QB problems, the Hokies losing team MVP and conference player of the year Bryan Randall, and Miami having to reload from massive departures to the NFL once again. Elsewhere, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Maryland, NC State, North Carolina, and Virginia all appear to be teams on that second tier this upcoming season. However, just a bit of luck can help land this group in the same territory Tech found itself in 2004. On the coaching front, the ACC is the only league to maintain full stability, as each school’s respective coach is back. The biggest change to affect the conference in 2005 will be the addition of Boston College, and the splitting into two divisions, the Atlantic, and Coastal. Look for Florida State and Miami to represent their respective divisions in the inaugural ACC title game in Jacksonville on December 3rd.
Here is a look at a potential “Play On” and “Play Against” spot for each ACC team in 2005.
ATLANTIC DIVISION
Boston College
Play On: Wake Forest 11/15
This was a non-conference game last year for the Eagles. They came in undefeated and lost 17-14 at Winston-Salem. With 12 days to prepare for Virginia Tech, expect the Eagles to be flying high.
Play Against: @Clemson 9/24
BC will be off home game with Florida State and likely catching a group of angry Tigers off a loss at Miami-Fl. This Tigers den is too much for the Eagles who lose by double digits.
Clemson
Play On: Florida State 11/22
Clemson will be seeking redemption off last year’s 41-22 pasting. The home team is 8-1-1 ATS in this series. Underdog Tigers pounce on Florida State again.
Play Against: @Wake Forest 10/01
The Tigers seldom post good results at Wake Forest with a 3-10-2 ATS record. With Clemson just having a bye up next, focus could be problem. Tigers win, barely.
Florida State
Play On: Syracuse 10/1
Tallahassee is not the spot a new coach wants to play his first road game. Sorry Coach Greg Robinson, you’re not in Kansas City anymore.
Play Against: @Florida 11/26
The home team is 12-5 ATS in this heated Sunshine State rivalry. Gators on the prowl in Gainesville to take out the Seminoles.
Maryland
Play On: @ NC State 11/26
This game is moved to the end of the year for both teams. The visitor is 7-2-1 ATS this ACC match-up. Terps in another tight game between these conference rivals.
Play Against: @Florida State 10/29
Off big Thursday home contest with the Hokies, a trip to revenge minded Florida State will not be a fun trip for Coach Friedgen and Maryland. Terps are 6-13-2 ATS double digit road dogs.
NC State
Play On: @Georgia Tech 10/06
Coach Chuck Amato is a perfect 11-0 ATS as an away dog. With an improved offense and the usual strong defense, upset a possibility for the Wolfpack.
Play Against: Southern Mississippi 10/29
With homecoming this weekend and a big date at Florida State next, will the Wolfpack save there A-game for the following week? We believe that answer is yes.
Wake Forest
Play On: NC State 10/22
With Wake Forest a likely home underdog, keep in mind they are 6-2 ATS against the boys from Raleigh. The home team has covered 7 of 9 of these meetings.
Play Against: Georgia Tech 11/05
Weak teams wear down as the season progresses. This will be the Demon Deacons 10th straight contest. Wake is 1-10 ATS in recent November outings.
COASTAL DIVISION
Duke
Play On: @North Carolina 11/19
With the Dukies off a probable loss at Clemson, a big effort would not be a surprise at Chapel Hill. The dog in this Victory Bell series is 16-7 ATS.
Play Against: @Clemson 11/05
The visitor has had no luck whatsoever in this series of late, The home team is 7-0 ATS. Do not expect anything to change with this one.
Georgia Tech
Play On: Wake Forest 11/05
The home team in the ACC series has covered 77.7% of the tune over the last nine years.
Play Against: Clemson 10/29
This intriguing game has seen the underdog cover an amazing 15 of 16 times. With the Techsters a probable small favorite, a Clemson upset would not be a shocker.
Miami
Play On: North Carolina 10/29
The Hurricanes were upset as -22 point favorites at Chapel Hill last season. Revenge is wicked and Miami is 12-0 SU and 9-2-1 ATS the week before playing Virginia Tech.
Play Against: Wake Forest 11/17
Off nearly two weeks after Virginia Tech game, a Thursday night trip to Winston-Salem will not energize these ‘Canes. Miami is 2-6 ATS playing on Thursday nights.
North Carolina
Play On: Virginia 10/22
Off a bye and a 56-24 wipe-out last year, UNC catches the Wahoos off a home game with Florida State and should be a live home dog.
Play Against: Duke 11/19
This will be the Tar Heels third straight home game. This tobacco road game always means more to Duke in football. UNC is 3-9 ATS in there final home game.
Virginia
Play On: Georgia Tech 11/12
The Rambling Wreck visit Charlottesville in a series that has seen the home team grab the winning ticket 6 of 7 times.
Play Against: @North Carolina 10/22
Cavaliers have monster home game with Florida State the week prior, focus an issue for Virginia. The visitor is 4-15 ATS when these team hook-up.
Virginia Tech
Play On: Ohio U. 9/17
The Hokies always play well in September and this home contest will add to that record. VT is 31-10 ATS in non-conference games over the last decade.
Play Against: @Virginia 11/19
Virginia Tech is 4-11 ATS in November road contests. For years this used to be the last game of the year for these in-state rivals. Not anymore, the Hokies could get ambushed at Virginia this season.
2005 Sun Belt Preview
The 2004 football season was a landmark of sorts for the Sun Belt as it placed two teams in bowl games for the first time ever. Neither North Texas nor Troy State won their respective postseason contests but the mere fact that they were there broke new ground for the conference. Furthermore, both of those teams made noise on other fronts in 2004, first with the Trojans knocking off national powers Marshall and Missouri to start the season, then with the Mean Green’s Jamario Thomas finishing the season as the country’s leading rusher at 180.1 YPG. Aside from that, there was very little that happened in 2004 that was unexpected, as the league continued to struggle in non-conference play, and North Texas continued to dominate the league standings. Darrell Dickey’s team won the conference for the fourth straight season, beating opponents by an average of 14 PPG. Though not as dominant as past seasons, it was still enough to secure the automatic berth in the New Orleans Bowl.
For 2005, there will be noticeable changes in the standings, if not only for the affect realignment has had. Idaho, Utah State, and New Mexico State have departed while 2004 1-A transitional teams Florida Atlantic and Florida International join the Sun Belt. North Texas, riding a 25-game league-winning streak, again figures to be the team to beat but could be challenged by previously mentioned Florida Atlantic, as well as Middle Tennessee State and Troy State. Incidentally, the two bowl participants of a year ago did not meet in the conference season, and FAU actually won in Denton, enhancing the opportunity for a potential new champion in the Sun Belt conference.
North Texas
Play On: Arkansas State 10/8
The Mean Green has punished Arkansas State over the last four years, outscoring them by 147-31 in winning all four games and covering 3 of 4.
Play Against: @LSU 9/3
The Eagles under Coach Dickey always play tough non-conference games and this will be no exception. North Texas is 0-10 SU and 3-7 ATS in road openers. Coach Dickey’s Eagles are 0-6 ATS in the first of back-to-back road contests.
Troy State
Play On: Florida Atlantic 11/5
This will be Troy’s only home game in a five week period. With superior athletes and big Homecoming celebration, the Trojans march to win and cover.
Play Against: @Missouri 917
Missouri was embarrassed on National TV last year in losing to Troy 24-14 as 11-point road favorites. HUGE revenge spot for the Tigers who take advantage of the fact the Troy only has 8 returning starters early in the season.
LA Monroe
Play On: Arkansas State 10/1
After a 3-game road trip, the Indians return home to face Arkansas State. UL Monroe lost as 6-point favorites last year to Ark. State. Look for UL Monroe to take advantage of the fact they return 8 starters on offense including QB Jyles.
Play Against: @North Texas 10/29
Rest does very little for this band of Indians who are just 1-9 ATS after a bye week.
Middle Tennessee State
Play On: @Alabama 9/3
With M.T.S a probable 17+ point underdog at Alabama, this should be a good spot for the Blue Raiders. The Crimson Tide are notoriously poor large home favorites in September and M.T.S. returns 18 starters from last year’s 5-6 team. The Blue Raiders seek to make it a perfect 7-0 ATS in road openers.
Play Against: @Troy State 11/26
The visitor has been an underdog in this series all three times and has dropped all 3 games both SU and ATS.
Arkansas State
Play On: Florida Inter. 9/24
After an arduous trip to Oklahoma State the week prior, the Indians open there home conference season against new member FIU. Arkansas State is 9-4 ATS in conference home openers.
Play Against: @Oklahoma State 9/17
Always tough and physical Cowboys lay the wood to these worn down Indians, who will no match for this style of play. Arkansas State is 4-13 ATS on artificial turf.
LA Lafayette
Play On: @LA Monroe 11/19
In this in-state rivalry, we find the visitor is the prime choice. The home team is 1-8 ATS with four of the last five games being decided by 5 or less points.
Play Against: @North Texas 11/5
The Ragin’ Cajuns have found no solitude in visiting Denton, Texas. Newly named Louisiana U. is 0-5 SU and ATS, no matter what name they want to call themselves.
Florida Atlantic
Play On: LA Monroe 9/24
This game is the only real opportunity for the Owls to win in there first five games. An apparently over ambitious schedule, makes this a “must” game as a new member of the Sun Belt Conference for this Boca Raton university.
Play Against: @Minnesota 9/17
The Golden Gophers love to run up the score against weak non-conference teams and no reason to believe this will not happen with a very experienced Minnesota offense.
Florida International
Play On: Florida Atlantic 11/26
This is the only true natural rival for both new schools to Sun Belt Conference. With 18 returning starters including QB Padrick, home revenge should be sweet for the Golden Panthers.
Play Against: @Texas Tech 9/10
FIU can rest assure they have never seen an offense quite like the Red Raiders. Highly ranked Big 12 teams have left Lubbock embarrassed, what do you think they can do to a new Sun Belt Conference member?
2005 Conference USA Preview
For you Conference USA traditionalists, we offer our sincerest apologies for what realignment has done to the state of football in your league. For those unaware of how much Conference USA has changed, we will attempt to explain it in concise fashion. Gone are perennial powers Louisville, Cincinnati, and TCU, as well as Army and South Florida. Added are WAC doormats of recent years SMU, Rice, UTEP, and Tulsa, plus Marshall. The result is a league comprised of 12 teams with a composite Power Ranking that places it just above the Sun Belt in terms of conference strength. The good news is this will enable the league to split into two divisions and hold a season ending conference title game. The bad news is that the league, particularly the West Division, is so watered down that an extra game could do more harm than good.
The most unfortunate aspect of the whole realignment situation surrounding Conference USA is that the league comes off of one of its finest season’s ever, one in which its best team was being talked about on a national stage. Louisville was a legitimate BCS contender and its totals of 49.8 PPG and 539 YPG on offense stand as testament to that. Had they beaten Miami in one of the 2005 season’s most exciting games, the Cardinals would have grabbed one of the at-large BCS berths. Elsewhere, four other teams claimed bowl berths, including Southern Miss, Cincinnati, Memphis, and first time postseason participant UAB. Louisville won the league title by three games last year and would have been a heavy favorite again, so naturally, the Cardinals’ defection opens the door for several other contenders to emerge. UAB, Memphis, Southern Miss, and Tulane seem to be the most likely candidates. On the field, RB DeAngelo Hall of Memphis assumes the role as the league’s biggest star and new coaches are welcomed in at Marshall and East Carolina.
East Division
UAB
Play On: @ Troy 9/10
Off a presumed loss at Tennessee, the mobile senior QB Hackney has a big game against inexperienced Troy. The Blazers are 15-6 ATS in September.
Play Against: @ UTEP 11/19
New conference foes go at it in Southwest Texas. Blazers find out first hand how difficult it is to win in El Paso.
Southern Mississippi
Play On: Memphis 11/19
Southern Miss. is a superior home favorite with a 32-19 ATS record in Hattiesburg. The Golden Eagles have covered 12 of 13 vs. the Tigers of Memphis.
Play Against: @ Alabama 9/10
USM established themselves as a “Big Game Killer” when Bret Favre was taking snaps at the university. The Crimson Tide is now 7-1 SU and ATS against the Golden Eagles.
Memphis
Play On: Marshall 11/26
Memphis could be contention for a bowl game. After playing at Tennessee and at Southern Miss. this has the look of the game they will need to win to secure the bid.
Play Against: @ Southern Miss. 11/19
Tigers are 0-7 SU & ATS at Hattiesburg the last seven visits. The Tigers have been toyed with by the Golden Eagles by a 25-10 average losing score.
Central Florida
Play On: Marshall 9/24
Central Florida returns 16 starters from last season, including 9 on offense. In this contest they face-off against fellow MAC foe Marshall. The Thundering Herds ranks have been severely thinned for new Coach Snyder.
Play Against: @ Rice 11/19
The Golden Knights have not flourished in back-to-back road games. Central Florida last lost 8 of 9 times and has that same record against the spread.
East Carolina
Play On: @ SMU 10/15
Lou Holtz’s son looks to change the fortunes of the Pirates who were 3-20 over the last two years. With an expected tight game, keep in mind the ECU is 11-2 ATS as a touchdown or less underdog.
Play Against: @ West Virginia 9/24
Back-to-back road games are toilsome for any team, especially if you are used to losing. The Pirates are 6-13-1 ATS away from Greensville.
Marshall
Play On: SMU 10/1
With only 3 starters returning on each side of the pigskin, this is not the Thundering Herd you remember over the last 10 years. This contest presents an opportunity to grab a victory on a schedule that will test Marshall’s abilities with so many new faces.
Play Against: Kansas State 9/10
Two years ago a quality Marshall team rolls in Manhattan and takes a 27-20 win out of town as 19 point dogs. Most of the betting public will still believe that this is the Marshall of old and Kansas State takes apart depleted Thundering Herd.
West Division
UTEP
Play On: Tulsa 11/5
UTEP suffered an embarrassing 37-35 loss as 8-point road favorites at Tulsa in last season’s closer. The Miners will dig a whole to deep this year and end a 3-game losing streak to Tulsa.
Play Against: @ New Mexico State 9/3
After slamming New Mexico State 45-0 in 2004, a significant road favorite spot is forecasted for this opener. New passing offense under Coach Hal Mumme keeps Aggies within the number.
Houston
Play On: Memphis 10/15
Veteran Houston squad will be itching to have Memphis as a visitor after last year’s 41-14 pummeling. QB Kevin Kolb looks to return favor with big performance for Cougars.
Play Against: @ UTEP 9/16
Early important C-USA West Division contest has the Cougs sporting a 13-33 ATS mark in conference road games.
Tulane
Play On: UTEP 10/14
With 17 starters back in the fold for the unpredictable Green Wave, a likely small home dog role is possible. With high-octane pedal to the metal offense ready to roll, a Tulane upset is the call here.
Play Against: @ Central Florida 10/22
With Tulane off possible upset on ESPN 2, the Green Wave is reduced to placid state, with this being their only road game in a five week period.
Tulsa
Play On: Houston 10/1
A real possibility that Tulsa could be 0-4 going into this home game. Houston will be off important game with So. Mississippi and may not bring A-game against a team without a win.
Play Against: Memphis 9/24
With Tulsa off games @Oklahoma and @ North Texas, understand that the Golden Hurricanes are 4-18 ATS off two consecutive roadies. The home team in this series is 0-7-1 ATS.
Rice
Play On: Navy 9/24
The Midshipmen have just six starters back for the ’05 season. This is the Owls only home game in the first five games of the year. Rice should definitely give a hoot here.
Play Against: Tulane 11/22
The host in this series is 1-7 against the number.
SMU
Play On: Rice 11/5
The home team is 7-1-1 ATS for these long time in-state rivals.
A new era in WAC history begins this year as realignment has left the conference with nine teams, three of which transfer over from the Sun Belt. The league says goodbye to UTEP, Tulsa, SMU, and Rice and welcomes in Utah State, New Mexico State, and Idaho. According to the Power Ratings, the WAC takes a hit in composite strength, but should benefit with some new and more regionalized rivalries. The conference will be trying to continue a stretch since 2001 that has seen it compile the best bowl game winning percentage of any other league. Including three straight wins by Fresno State, the WAC is 7-4 in bowl games, good for 63.6%, during that time frame.
The WAC remains an extremely top heavy league for 2005 as Boise State, Fresno State, and to a lesser degree, Hawaii, stand as favorites to win the league title. Boise State is the defending champion and will enter the season on a tremendous 26 game conference win streak. As of now, the only impending date on the schedule that figures to be a threat to that streak is the contest at Fresno State, scheduled for November. Other than that showdown, it should be smooth sailing for the two teams at the top. Elsewhere, Hawaii is a tier below and begins the first year in the post-Timmy Chang era, while Louisiana tech and Nevada will look to take advantage of a weak league and earn bowl bids for the first time in many years. In San Jose, Dick Tomey’s arrival has Spartans fans optimistic for a UTEP-like turnaround of a year ago, while Utah State, Idaho, and New Mexico State likely have no aspirations other than getting acclimated to their new surroundings in 2005.
Fresno State
Play On: @Oregon 9/17
With 16 returning starters, Coach Pat Hill’s teams usually starts fast out of the gate. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS against Pac-10 teams. With Oregon playing USC at home the following week, a wandering eye to the future gives Fresno State a chance to pull an upset.
Play Against: @Hawaii 10/29
The long sojourn to the islands is a difficult trip for Fresno State. The visitor is 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS in this heated rivalry.
Boise State
Play On: Nevada 10/29
The Broncos are 5-0 SU and ATS against Nevada over the last five years, with the average score being 51-11. Boise State is the play.
Play Against: @Oregon State 9/10
Last year Boise State broke through and defeated the Beavers 53-34 in a game that was not that close. Anticipate Oregon State to be prepared this time around. The Broncos are 2-8 ATS vs. the Pac-10.
Hawaii
Play On: Fresno State 10/29
The Warriors are 7-3 ATS over the last decade against Fresno State. The Bulldogs 70 points last year were the most scored against Hawaii since 1848. These opposing coaches have little use for one another, should be a WACked –out contest.
Play Against: @Michigan State 9/10
This will be the second most difficult non-conference road game for Hawaii over the last 10 years.(USC 2003 is first) The Warriors first trip into the mainland is unkind with a 1-9 SU mark and a 3-7 ATS record. Hawaii upset Spartans 41-38 as six point home dogs last December.
Louisiana Tech
Play On: Boise State 11/26
The Bulldogs will probably be 17+ points’ home dogs for this WAC contest. With the home team delivering a 5-1 ATS record in this series, Co. Bicknell’s boys worth a solid look at Ruston, this late in the season.
Play Against: @Florida 9/10
The swamp is never a good place to visit, particularly when filled with hungry Gators. This is especially tough when the trip is to Gainesville and you are 6-16 ATS in your last 23 road games.
New Mexico State
Play On: UTEP 9/3
After being slammed 45-0 in 2004 by UTEP, a significant home underdog spot is forecasted. New passing offense under Coach Hal Mumme keeps Aggies within the number.
Play Against: @Boise State 11/5
Smurf Turf and speedy Broncos too much for WAC’s newest member New Mexico State. Aggies are 6-12 ATS in November coming from weak Sun Belt Conference.
Nevada
Play On: UNLV 9/17
In-state rival spanked Wolf Pack last year 48-13. Rebels have new coach and return only 8 starters from last year’s mediocre team. Coach Ault has Nevada on the prowl, with the duo of QB Jeff Rowe to WR Nichiren Flowers ready to deliver knock out punch.
Play Against: Fresno State 11/26
This has not a good match-up for Nevada, who has surrendered 48 PPG over the last six years to Fresno State. Nevada is 2-6 SU and ATS in home finales.
San Jose State
Play On: New Mexico State 11/19
New Coach Dick Tomey should have put his stamp on San Jose by this point of the season. Despite small crowds, the Spartans are 7-2 ATS in November home games.
Play Against: @Boise State 10/15
Last year San Jose missed a 38-yard field goal to beat Boise State at home. No such results this season, as the Broncos stampede the Spartans at home.
Idaho
Play On: Utah State 10/1
This will in all probability be the only game that Idaho will be favored in 2005. Vandals take what should have been a win last year, in convincing fashion at home this time around.
Play Against: @Washington State 9/1
The Vandals return 16 starters but will be no match for the Cougars. Washington State has 9 offensive players back including QB Swogger, this allows them to name the final score in this Northwest contest.
Utah State
Play On: @New Mexico State 11/26
The underdog is a 100%, 6-0 against the number in this battle of former Sun Belt Conference members. Utah State is 11-3 ATS since 1990 vs. the team with the same nickname as they have.
2005 Big 12 Preview
Last season was another huge campaign for the Big 12 and its football programs as the conference placed seven teams in bowl games, including the BCS title contest. That accomplishment marked the 4th time in the last five years that a Big 12 school played for the national title. Four of the seven Big 12 schools won their postseason contests, the most notable being the thrilling come from behind win by Texas in the Rose Bowl. There was also success on the non-conference landscape as the Big 12 logged an impressive 28-8 mark in non-league tilts. Oklahoma won the conference championship for the second straight season, by routing Colorado of the North Division in the title game. Speaking of the North Division, the race for that top spot proved to be one of the most captivating of any Div 1-A league as all six teams finished within two games of one another.
For 2005, the conference loses a load of NFL type talent but will remain strong. Oklahoma and Texas figure to be the teams to beat again, and the Longhorns may finally hold the edge over the Sooners, boasting the league’s most explosive player in QB Vince Young, who ranks just ahead of OU’s RB Adrian Peterson. Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State also come back loaded but are cursed by having to compete with the two front runners in the South Division year in and year out. In the North, the race should be wide open again as no team has clearly distance itself from the others since last season. On the coaching front, Oklahoma State was the only school to make a change, as Les Miles’ departure left a void that was eventually filled by Mike Gundy. Realignment has thankfully kept its hands off of this conference, meaning the Big 12 should be as strong as ever in 2005. In fact, instant replay will be the only recognizable change. Don’t be surprised to see either Texas or Oklahoma competing for the national title in the Rose Bowl on January 4th, 2006. As usual, the big game to circle on the calendar involves those two powers in the “Red River Shootout”, this year scheduled for October 8th.
Texas
Play On: Baylor 11/12
Texas is 19-2 SU and 15-5-1 ATS against the Bears. The Longhorns have outscored Baylor by an average of 47-8 since 1998.
Play Against: Colorado 10/15
Texas might well be off possible win against Oklahoma for the first time six years, which places them in unfamiliar territory as a team. Colorado is a strong road dog under Coach Barnett, who is 14-7 ATS in that scenario with the Buffaloes.
Oklahoma
Play On: Texas A&M 11/12
This strictly has been a home cookin’ series. The home squad is 11-1 ATS in the last dozen years.
Play Against: Texas 10/8
For the first time in six years Texas actually has better talent then Oklahoma. Longhorns break through and beat the Sooners in the “Red River Shootout”.
Texas A&M
Play On: Baylor 10/1
Last year’s overtime loss at Waco 35-34, will serve as a reminder in the Big 12 opener for both teams.
Play Against: @Clemson 9/3
Clemson was held to 192 total yards, was sacked 5 times and were -4 in turnover margin. Texas A&M has a return engagement to find out why they call the it “Death Valley” at Clemson. Aggies 2-12 ATS in road openers.
Texas Tech
Play On: Kansas State 10-15
Red Raiders are 4-1-1 ATS against talent depleted Wildcats. Texas Tech is 16-7-1 ATS as a home favorite under Coach Leach and an incredible 20-3 against the number as a HF of 3 or more vs. a team with a .375 winning percentage or better at Lubbock.
Play Against: Kansas 10/1
This will be the first reasonable opponent for the Red Raiders after playing two D-1 AA teams. Texas Tech will likely be a 17-20 favorite, which could be too much in their Big 12 lid-lifter.
Oklahoma State
Play On: Texas Tech 11/12
The “chalk” in this series is 6-1 ATS. The Cowboys usually send the home folks happy with a 9-3-1 ATS mark in the final home game at Stillwater.
Play Against: @ Iowa State 10/22
With this being the second of a four week stretch that has @ Texas A&M, Texas and
@ Oklahoma, the Cowboys very easily could overlook the Cyclones. Iowa State returns seven starters on each side of the ball and will have a big homecoming crowd in their favor.
Baylor
Play On: @SMU 9/3
Baylor should be a single digit away favorite for the first time since 1998. These Bears need to take wins where they can find them, Baylor wins handily.
Play Against: @Texas A&M 10/1
The unfathomable upset of the Aggies as 25 point home dogs sets up a bad situation for Baylor who lost in College Station, 73-10, two years ago.
Colorado
Play On: @ Kansas State 10/29
With November just around the corner, this is the Buffs time of year. With K-State down in talent this year, expect Co. Barnett’s boys to go to 8-3 ATS at Manhattan.
Play Against: Colorado State 9/3
The Buffaloes act like this in-state rivalry is a bother most years. Consider that Colorado will be a double-digit favorite and you will find the Buffs winning the game just not covering the number. The favorite is 1-8 ATS in this series.
Nebraska
Play On: Texas Tech 10/8
After suffering the worst loss in school history to Texas Tech 70-10 last season, this will be the Cornhuskers 5th straight home game and the most important.
Play Against: @Baylor 10/15
After starting the season with five consecutive home games, playing your first road game in mid-October can be disconcerting even in Waco. Off what will likely be a high scoring affair against the Red Raiders, keep in mind the Nebraska is 4-21-1 ATS after they allow 27 or more points.
Iowa State
Play On: Baylor 10/8
Iowa State has had plenty of problems with Nebraska, whom they play the week before, yet should have no problems being ready to take out Baylor. The Cyclones have won four straight with the favored team posting a 4-2 ATS mark.
Play Against: @Nebraska 10/1
The Huskers always give Iowa State fits. The Cyclones have lost by an average of 29 points in Lincoln and Nebraska will hold nothing back after losing as a road favorite
34-27 in Ames last season.
Kansas State
Play On: Kansas 10/8
Wildcats off 1st non-winning season in over a decade, lost at Kansas last year after defeating them by an average of 40 PPG over the last 10 years. Hello Dorothy, your not in Lawrence anymore.
Play Against: Colorado 10/29
Colorado brings out the worst in Co. Snyder squads. Posting a 3-7 ATS record against the Buffaloes, keep in mind that K-State is 1-6 ATS as a favorite of less the 5-points.
Kansas
Play On: Iowa State 11/19
The home team is a delectable 11-2-1 against the spread in this Big 12 series.
Play Against: @ Kansas State 10/8
Ending long streaks come with a price, after Kansas ended a 1-10 SU and ATS record last year against K-State as 3-point home dogs. Wildcats Coach Snyder is a very unforgiving man.
Missouri
Play On: @ Oklahoma State 10/8
Off a probable Texas loss, Missouri heads to Stillwater, where the favorite is only 2-7 ATS. Tigers take comfort in knowing they are 6-2 SU and ATS vs. the Cowboys.
Play Against: @ Kansas State 11/19
The Tigers have nothing in the tank when facing K-State. Losers of 12 straight to the Wildcats, Missouri is a paltry 3-7 ATS in the last ten games against Coach Snyder.
2005 ACC Preview
The addition of Boston College to the ACC in 2005 only enhances its position as the strongest and deepest conference in college football. This type of depth can serve as a detriment though for its elite teams hoping to compete for the BCS title. Such was the case in 2004, when Virginia Tech won the league with a 7-1 mark. The task of emerging from the league schedule unscathed is highly difficult considering the strength of schedule within, making it tough to stay atop of the BCS standings with unbeaten teams from weaker conferences like the Pac 10 and Big East. Now granted, Tech dropped an earlier non-conference clash to USC, but essentially it was the NC State loss that ended its national championship hopes. The problem becomes even greater in 2005, as the now 12-team league qualifies to host a conference championship game, thus adding yet another difficult game on the schedule. On the flip side of the argument, any team that CAN distance itself and run the table in this conference gains a near automatic berth in the BCS title game in any given year.
Preseason indicators offer no evidence that any particular team is ready to trump the rest of the ACC in 2005. Each team faces its own concerns, with Florida State having recent QB problems, the Hokies losing team MVP and conference player of the year Bryan Randall, and Miami having to reload from massive departures to the NFL once again. Elsewhere, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Maryland, NC State, North Carolina, and Virginia all appear to be teams on that second tier this upcoming season. However, just a bit of luck can help land this group in the same territory Tech found itself in 2004. On the coaching front, the ACC is the only league to maintain full stability, as each school’s respective coach is back. The biggest change to affect the conference in 2005 will be the addition of Boston College, and the splitting into two divisions, the Atlantic, and Coastal. Look for Florida State and Miami to represent their respective divisions in the inaugural ACC title game in Jacksonville on December 3rd.
Here is a look at a potential “Play On” and “Play Against” spot for each ACC team in 2005.
ATLANTIC DIVISION
Boston College
Play On: Wake Forest 11/15
This was a non-conference game last year for the Eagles. They came in undefeated and lost 17-14 at Winston-Salem. With 12 days to prepare for Virginia Tech, expect the Eagles to be flying high.
Play Against: @Clemson 9/24
BC will be off home game with Florida State and likely catching a group of angry Tigers off a loss at Miami-Fl. This Tigers den is too much for the Eagles who lose by double digits.
Clemson
Play On: Florida State 11/22
Clemson will be seeking redemption off last year’s 41-22 pasting. The home team is 8-1-1 ATS in this series. Underdog Tigers pounce on Florida State again.
Play Against: @Wake Forest 10/01
The Tigers seldom post good results at Wake Forest with a 3-10-2 ATS record. With Clemson just having a bye up next, focus could be problem. Tigers win, barely.
Florida State
Play On: Syracuse 10/1
Tallahassee is not the spot a new coach wants to play his first road game. Sorry Coach Greg Robinson, you’re not in Kansas City anymore.
Play Against: @Florida 11/26
The home team is 12-5 ATS in this heated Sunshine State rivalry. Gators on the prowl in Gainesville to take out the Seminoles.
Maryland
Play On: @ NC State 11/26
This game is moved to the end of the year for both teams. The visitor is 7-2-1 ATS this ACC match-up. Terps in another tight game between these conference rivals.
Play Against: @Florida State 10/29
Off big Thursday home contest with the Hokies, a trip to revenge minded Florida State will not be a fun trip for Coach Friedgen and Maryland. Terps are 6-13-2 ATS double digit road dogs.
NC State
Play On: @Georgia Tech 10/06
Coach Chuck Amato is a perfect 11-0 ATS as an away dog. With an improved offense and the usual strong defense, upset a possibility for the Wolfpack.
Play Against: Southern Mississippi 10/29
With homecoming this weekend and a big date at Florida State next, will the Wolfpack save there A-game for the following week? We believe that answer is yes.
Wake Forest
Play On: NC State 10/22
With Wake Forest a likely home underdog, keep in mind they are 6-2 ATS against the boys from Raleigh. The home team has covered 7 of 9 of these meetings.
Play Against: Georgia Tech 11/05
Weak teams wear down as the season progresses. This will be the Demon Deacons 10th straight contest. Wake is 1-10 ATS in recent November outings.
COASTAL DIVISION
Duke
Play On: @North Carolina 11/19
With the Dukies off a probable loss at Clemson, a big effort would not be a surprise at Chapel Hill. The dog in this Victory Bell series is 16-7 ATS.
Play Against: @Clemson 11/05
The visitor has had no luck whatsoever in this series of late, The home team is 7-0 ATS. Do not expect anything to change with this one.
Georgia Tech
Play On: Wake Forest 11/05
The home team in the ACC series has covered 77.7% of the tune over the last nine years.
Play Against: Clemson 10/29
This intriguing game has seen the underdog cover an amazing 15 of 16 times. With the Techsters a probable small favorite, a Clemson upset would not be a shocker.
Miami
Play On: North Carolina 10/29
The Hurricanes were upset as -22 point favorites at Chapel Hill last season. Revenge is wicked and Miami is 12-0 SU and 9-2-1 ATS the week before playing Virginia Tech.
Play Against: Wake Forest 11/17
Off nearly two weeks after Virginia Tech game, a Thursday night trip to Winston-Salem will not energize these ‘Canes. Miami is 2-6 ATS playing on Thursday nights.
North Carolina
Play On: Virginia 10/22
Off a bye and a 56-24 wipe-out last year, UNC catches the Wahoos off a home game with Florida State and should be a live home dog.
Play Against: Duke 11/19
This will be the Tar Heels third straight home game. This tobacco road game always means more to Duke in football. UNC is 3-9 ATS in there final home game.
Virginia
Play On: Georgia Tech 11/12
The Rambling Wreck visit Charlottesville in a series that has seen the home team grab the winning ticket 6 of 7 times.
Play Against: @North Carolina 10/22
Cavaliers have monster home game with Florida State the week prior, focus an issue for Virginia. The visitor is 4-15 ATS when these team hook-up.
Virginia Tech
Play On: Ohio U. 9/17
The Hokies always play well in September and this home contest will add to that record. VT is 31-10 ATS in non-conference games over the last decade.
Play Against: @Virginia 11/19
Virginia Tech is 4-11 ATS in November road contests. For years this used to be the last game of the year for these in-state rivals. Not anymore, the Hokies could get ambushed at Virginia this season.
2005 Sun Belt Preview
The 2004 football season was a landmark of sorts for the Sun Belt as it placed two teams in bowl games for the first time ever. Neither North Texas nor Troy State won their respective postseason contests but the mere fact that they were there broke new ground for the conference. Furthermore, both of those teams made noise on other fronts in 2004, first with the Trojans knocking off national powers Marshall and Missouri to start the season, then with the Mean Green’s Jamario Thomas finishing the season as the country’s leading rusher at 180.1 YPG. Aside from that, there was very little that happened in 2004 that was unexpected, as the league continued to struggle in non-conference play, and North Texas continued to dominate the league standings. Darrell Dickey’s team won the conference for the fourth straight season, beating opponents by an average of 14 PPG. Though not as dominant as past seasons, it was still enough to secure the automatic berth in the New Orleans Bowl.
For 2005, there will be noticeable changes in the standings, if not only for the affect realignment has had. Idaho, Utah State, and New Mexico State have departed while 2004 1-A transitional teams Florida Atlantic and Florida International join the Sun Belt. North Texas, riding a 25-game league-winning streak, again figures to be the team to beat but could be challenged by previously mentioned Florida Atlantic, as well as Middle Tennessee State and Troy State. Incidentally, the two bowl participants of a year ago did not meet in the conference season, and FAU actually won in Denton, enhancing the opportunity for a potential new champion in the Sun Belt conference.
North Texas
Play On: Arkansas State 10/8
The Mean Green has punished Arkansas State over the last four years, outscoring them by 147-31 in winning all four games and covering 3 of 4.
Play Against: @LSU 9/3
The Eagles under Coach Dickey always play tough non-conference games and this will be no exception. North Texas is 0-10 SU and 3-7 ATS in road openers. Coach Dickey’s Eagles are 0-6 ATS in the first of back-to-back road contests.
Troy State
Play On: Florida Atlantic 11/5
This will be Troy’s only home game in a five week period. With superior athletes and big Homecoming celebration, the Trojans march to win and cover.
Play Against: @Missouri 917
Missouri was embarrassed on National TV last year in losing to Troy 24-14 as 11-point road favorites. HUGE revenge spot for the Tigers who take advantage of the fact the Troy only has 8 returning starters early in the season.
LA Monroe
Play On: Arkansas State 10/1
After a 3-game road trip, the Indians return home to face Arkansas State. UL Monroe lost as 6-point favorites last year to Ark. State. Look for UL Monroe to take advantage of the fact they return 8 starters on offense including QB Jyles.
Play Against: @North Texas 10/29
Rest does very little for this band of Indians who are just 1-9 ATS after a bye week.
Middle Tennessee State
Play On: @Alabama 9/3
With M.T.S a probable 17+ point underdog at Alabama, this should be a good spot for the Blue Raiders. The Crimson Tide are notoriously poor large home favorites in September and M.T.S. returns 18 starters from last year’s 5-6 team. The Blue Raiders seek to make it a perfect 7-0 ATS in road openers.
Play Against: @Troy State 11/26
The visitor has been an underdog in this series all three times and has dropped all 3 games both SU and ATS.
Arkansas State
Play On: Florida Inter. 9/24
After an arduous trip to Oklahoma State the week prior, the Indians open there home conference season against new member FIU. Arkansas State is 9-4 ATS in conference home openers.
Play Against: @Oklahoma State 9/17
Always tough and physical Cowboys lay the wood to these worn down Indians, who will no match for this style of play. Arkansas State is 4-13 ATS on artificial turf.
LA Lafayette
Play On: @LA Monroe 11/19
In this in-state rivalry, we find the visitor is the prime choice. The home team is 1-8 ATS with four of the last five games being decided by 5 or less points.
Play Against: @North Texas 11/5
The Ragin’ Cajuns have found no solitude in visiting Denton, Texas. Newly named Louisiana U. is 0-5 SU and ATS, no matter what name they want to call themselves.
Florida Atlantic
Play On: LA Monroe 9/24
This game is the only real opportunity for the Owls to win in there first five games. An apparently over ambitious schedule, makes this a “must” game as a new member of the Sun Belt Conference for this Boca Raton university.
Play Against: @Minnesota 9/17
The Golden Gophers love to run up the score against weak non-conference teams and no reason to believe this will not happen with a very experienced Minnesota offense.
Florida International
Play On: Florida Atlantic 11/26
This is the only true natural rival for both new schools to Sun Belt Conference. With 18 returning starters including QB Padrick, home revenge should be sweet for the Golden Panthers.
Play Against: @Texas Tech 9/10
FIU can rest assure they have never seen an offense quite like the Red Raiders. Highly ranked Big 12 teams have left Lubbock embarrassed, what do you think they can do to a new Sun Belt Conference member?
2005 Conference USA Preview
For you Conference USA traditionalists, we offer our sincerest apologies for what realignment has done to the state of football in your league. For those unaware of how much Conference USA has changed, we will attempt to explain it in concise fashion. Gone are perennial powers Louisville, Cincinnati, and TCU, as well as Army and South Florida. Added are WAC doormats of recent years SMU, Rice, UTEP, and Tulsa, plus Marshall. The result is a league comprised of 12 teams with a composite Power Ranking that places it just above the Sun Belt in terms of conference strength. The good news is this will enable the league to split into two divisions and hold a season ending conference title game. The bad news is that the league, particularly the West Division, is so watered down that an extra game could do more harm than good.
The most unfortunate aspect of the whole realignment situation surrounding Conference USA is that the league comes off of one of its finest season’s ever, one in which its best team was being talked about on a national stage. Louisville was a legitimate BCS contender and its totals of 49.8 PPG and 539 YPG on offense stand as testament to that. Had they beaten Miami in one of the 2005 season’s most exciting games, the Cardinals would have grabbed one of the at-large BCS berths. Elsewhere, four other teams claimed bowl berths, including Southern Miss, Cincinnati, Memphis, and first time postseason participant UAB. Louisville won the league title by three games last year and would have been a heavy favorite again, so naturally, the Cardinals’ defection opens the door for several other contenders to emerge. UAB, Memphis, Southern Miss, and Tulane seem to be the most likely candidates. On the field, RB DeAngelo Hall of Memphis assumes the role as the league’s biggest star and new coaches are welcomed in at Marshall and East Carolina.
East Division
UAB
Play On: @ Troy 9/10
Off a presumed loss at Tennessee, the mobile senior QB Hackney has a big game against inexperienced Troy. The Blazers are 15-6 ATS in September.
Play Against: @ UTEP 11/19
New conference foes go at it in Southwest Texas. Blazers find out first hand how difficult it is to win in El Paso.
Southern Mississippi
Play On: Memphis 11/19
Southern Miss. is a superior home favorite with a 32-19 ATS record in Hattiesburg. The Golden Eagles have covered 12 of 13 vs. the Tigers of Memphis.
Play Against: @ Alabama 9/10
USM established themselves as a “Big Game Killer” when Bret Favre was taking snaps at the university. The Crimson Tide is now 7-1 SU and ATS against the Golden Eagles.
Memphis
Play On: Marshall 11/26
Memphis could be contention for a bowl game. After playing at Tennessee and at Southern Miss. this has the look of the game they will need to win to secure the bid.
Play Against: @ Southern Miss. 11/19
Tigers are 0-7 SU & ATS at Hattiesburg the last seven visits. The Tigers have been toyed with by the Golden Eagles by a 25-10 average losing score.
Central Florida
Play On: Marshall 9/24
Central Florida returns 16 starters from last season, including 9 on offense. In this contest they face-off against fellow MAC foe Marshall. The Thundering Herds ranks have been severely thinned for new Coach Snyder.
Play Against: @ Rice 11/19
The Golden Knights have not flourished in back-to-back road games. Central Florida last lost 8 of 9 times and has that same record against the spread.
East Carolina
Play On: @ SMU 10/15
Lou Holtz’s son looks to change the fortunes of the Pirates who were 3-20 over the last two years. With an expected tight game, keep in mind the ECU is 11-2 ATS as a touchdown or less underdog.
Play Against: @ West Virginia 9/24
Back-to-back road games are toilsome for any team, especially if you are used to losing. The Pirates are 6-13-1 ATS away from Greensville.
Marshall
Play On: SMU 10/1
With only 3 starters returning on each side of the pigskin, this is not the Thundering Herd you remember over the last 10 years. This contest presents an opportunity to grab a victory on a schedule that will test Marshall’s abilities with so many new faces.
Play Against: Kansas State 9/10
Two years ago a quality Marshall team rolls in Manhattan and takes a 27-20 win out of town as 19 point dogs. Most of the betting public will still believe that this is the Marshall of old and Kansas State takes apart depleted Thundering Herd.
West Division
UTEP
Play On: Tulsa 11/5
UTEP suffered an embarrassing 37-35 loss as 8-point road favorites at Tulsa in last season’s closer. The Miners will dig a whole to deep this year and end a 3-game losing streak to Tulsa.
Play Against: @ New Mexico State 9/3
After slamming New Mexico State 45-0 in 2004, a significant road favorite spot is forecasted for this opener. New passing offense under Coach Hal Mumme keeps Aggies within the number.
Houston
Play On: Memphis 10/15
Veteran Houston squad will be itching to have Memphis as a visitor after last year’s 41-14 pummeling. QB Kevin Kolb looks to return favor with big performance for Cougars.
Play Against: @ UTEP 9/16
Early important C-USA West Division contest has the Cougs sporting a 13-33 ATS mark in conference road games.
Tulane
Play On: UTEP 10/14
With 17 starters back in the fold for the unpredictable Green Wave, a likely small home dog role is possible. With high-octane pedal to the metal offense ready to roll, a Tulane upset is the call here.
Play Against: @ Central Florida 10/22
With Tulane off possible upset on ESPN 2, the Green Wave is reduced to placid state, with this being their only road game in a five week period.
Tulsa
Play On: Houston 10/1
A real possibility that Tulsa could be 0-4 going into this home game. Houston will be off important game with So. Mississippi and may not bring A-game against a team without a win.
Play Against: Memphis 9/24
With Tulsa off games @Oklahoma and @ North Texas, understand that the Golden Hurricanes are 4-18 ATS off two consecutive roadies. The home team in this series is 0-7-1 ATS.
Rice
Play On: Navy 9/24
The Midshipmen have just six starters back for the ’05 season. This is the Owls only home game in the first five games of the year. Rice should definitely give a hoot here.
Play Against: Tulane 11/22
The host in this series is 1-7 against the number.
SMU
Play On: Rice 11/5
The home team is 7-1-1 ATS for these long time in-state rivals.
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