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NCAA Football Key Performance Data
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NCAA Football Trends
2005 Big Ten Preview
Six Big Ten schools qualified for bowl games in 2004, as a loss by Northwestern in its season finale kept that number from running to seven. It is becoming the norm for this conference to place that many teams in the postseason, and in fact, for 2005, the Big Ten has relationships with officially seven bowl games. Of the six teams that did play, their record was only 3-3, with all three defeats coming in heartbreaking fashion. Also, none of the top teams were ever in national title consideration, so in that sense, it was a down year for the Big Ten Conference. The 2005 campaign is expected to bring this league back to the forefront, as three teams in particular, Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa, boast returning talent capable of playing with anyone in the country. A host of young stars from those teams, including RB Michael Hart and QB Chad Henne of Michigan, WR Ted Ginn of Ohio State, and QB Drew Tate of Iowa, put on prominent performances in their respective bowl games, and are consequently being recognized for preseason individual honors.
Thankfully, the Big Ten is another conference that was unaffected by realignment. Most of what was in place for 2004, including instant replay, will remain so for 2005. Two coaching changes were made however, as Indiana grabbed Terry Hoeppner from Miami Ohio to replace Gerry DiNardo, and Illinois turned to former Florida Head Coach Ron Zook to resurrect its program. With the top three teams in prominent national position, and the next level of teams, notably Purdue, Michigan State, and Wisconsin always capable of making noise, the 110th season of Big Ten football could turn out to be one of its best.
Purdue
Play On: Iowa 10/8
The home team is 8-3 ATS in this series. Coach Tiller and the Boilermakers are 22-8-2 ATS in Big 10 home games.
Play Against: @ Penn State 10/29
Purdue is 3-11 against the spread under Co. Tiller as an away underdog. The Boilers are 1-10 ATS as Big 10 road dogs of 7 or less points.
Michigan
Play On: Pen State 10/15
Superb situation for Michigan, who catch the Nittany Lions off big home game against Ohio State. The Wolverines are 5-1 ATS against Penn State.
Play Against: @ Wisconsin 9/24
Despite the fact that the Badgers will be down this year, Michigan is 3-7 ATS vs. Bucky and 8-20 ATS as a road favorite. Wolverines have dropped last SEVEN road openers to the spread.
Ohio State
Play On: Iowa 9/24
Monster revenge spot for Ohio State off last year’s 33-7 whipping at Iowa City. Buckeyes are 10-2-1 SU and 10-3 ATS against the Hawkeyes.
Play Against: San Diego State 9/17
After a huge home game with Texas and revenge contest with Iowa, this is standard issue sandwich game. The Aztecs are unlikely to draw much emotion from Ohio State. Two years ago San Diego visited the former ‘Horseshoe’ and lost 16-13 as 30-point underdogs.
Iowa
Play On: Illinois 10/1
Iowa off probable loss at Ohio State is 14-4-1 ATS in next contest after dropping a game.
Play Against: @ Ohio State 9/24
Last year’s 26-point win was the largest margin of victory for Iowa over the Buckeyes. Welcome back to the ‘Horseshoe’ Iowa.
Michigan State
Play On: Penn State 11/19
6 of the 8 times these teams have met; the average winning margin has been 32 points. In each case the home team won. The Spartans are 13-0-1 ATS in home finales.
Play Against: @ Purdue 11/5
With Purdue always tough at home, the Spartans are 4-9-1 ATS in recent November contests and 1-6 against the spread at West Lafayette.
Penn State
Play On: Central Michigan 9/17
The Nittany Lions have three cupcakes at home before the Big 10 season commences. Co. Paterno is 13-2 vs. MAC teams and 11-1 ATS as double digit favorites against teams below .500.
Play Against: @ Michigan State 11/19
The home team is 10-2 against the number in this season closing series for both teams.
Wisconsin
Play On: Iowa 11/12
This figures to be emotional game anyway, which is made more significant with this being Barry Alvarez’s last home game as coach. Wisky is 12-2 ATS in last home games.
Play Against: @ Northwestern 10/8
These next door neighbors have troubled Wisconsin for years. The Badgers are 1-7 ATS at Evanston, with the home team posting an 11-3-1 ATS mark.
Minnesota
Play On: Florida Atlantic 9/17
Minnesota loves non-conference home blowout games, owning an 8-0 record. Coach Mason will try and start 3-0 for the 4th consecutive year by covering a large number.
Play Against: @ Iowa 11/19
The Floyd of Rosedale trophy has been residing in Iowa for 4 straight years. Minnesota is 1-11 ATS vs. Hawkeyes including 0-6 at Iowa City. The Gophers last road cover against Iowa was 1991.
Illinois
Play On: @ Ohio State 11/5
The Illini are 14-4 ATS vs. Ohio State. With new Coach Ron Zook’s penchant for his team’s playing well on the road, no reason to think anything differently will occur here.
Play Against: @ Purdue 11/12
The straight winner is 11-2-1 ATS in this Big 10 series. The Illini will not win.
Indiana
Play On: Illinois 10/8
This represents the only real shot the Hoosiers have at winning a Big 10 game on paper. The home team has covered 75% of the last eight meetings.
Play Against: @ Wisconsin 10/1
The Hoosiers are 9-21 ATS as road dogs the last seven years.
Northwestern
Play On: @ Arizona State 9/17
The Wildcats are 9-3 ATS in non-conference road games. Co. Walker’s Cats are 8-2 against the spread when dressed up as dogs.
Play Against: @ Purdue 10/15
Northwestern is 2-6-1 ATS against Purdue.
2005 SEC Preview
In 2004, the Southeastern Conference experienced an unusual circumstance, an undefeated team from its highly regarded league being shutout of the national championship picture. Auburn rolled to 13-0 record a year ago, including an impressive 38-28 dismantling of Tennessee in the SEC title game, only to finish third in the BCS standings behind two other power conference unbeatens. It’s a scenario that probably won’t be seen again for long time, and one that commands more attention to a potential playoff system. It was still a remarkable season for the Tigers but one that might be remembered more for what didn’t happen on the field than for what did. Elsewhere, the Volunteers enjoyed a renaissance season behind a pair of freshmen quarterbacks, capped by a Cotton Bowl win, and Georgia said goodbye to an elite class of seniors by winning the Outback Bowl. It wasn’t so pretty at other schools though as LSU fell victim to a miraculous play by Iowa in the Capital One Bowl, and Alabama and Florida each lost their respective postseason contests. The most noteworthy incident though surrounded the season finale game between South Carolina and rival Clemson, in which a massive brawl ensued at the end of the contest, marring the coaching finale of Lou Holtz at USC. Both teams elected to withdraw from bowl consideration following the ugly incident.
For 2005, the SEC again figures to have at least three teams among the BCS contenders. LSU, Tennessee, and Florida are all coming back loaded and hungry for the upcoming season. LSU and Florida each welcome in new coaches, as Les Miles takes over Nick Saban in Tiger country and Urban Meyer gains control of the Gators. Ironically, those high profile changes pale in comparison to the coaching replacement for the Gamecocks, as the SEC welcomes back Steve Spurrier to the college ranks. His arrival has created a fan frenzy in Columbia, and made the contest between USC and Florida on November 12th one of the most intriguing, can’t miss games of the season. Finally, at Ole Miss, Ed Orgeron takes over as head coach for David Cutcliffe. From a player standpoint, look for QB Chris Leak of Florida, and Tennessee’s RB Gerald Riggs and QB Erik Ainge to grab most of the headlines not given out to the coaches. Instant replay will also be in play in the SEC for 2005.
East Division
Georgia
Play On: @ Vanderbilt 10/15
With the Bulldogs off a possible loss at Tennessee, Georgia bounces back knowing they have won 26 of 27 by double digits against Vandy. Expect much more of the same in the Music City.
Play Against: Florida 10/29
The world’s largest outdoor cocktail party has had Georgia fans drowning their sorrows with a 2-13 SU record and 4-11 ATS after the games. No reason to look for anything different in Jacksonville again.
Florida
Play On: Florida State 11/26
The Gators have more talent and are better coached under Urban Meyer. The straight up winner in this in-state rivalry is 22-1-1 ATS. Florida wins at home.
Play Against: @ South Carolina 11/12
The ol’ ball coach will have his boys revved up when Florida visits Columbia. The Gators are 5-8 ATS the last four years as road favorites.
Tennessee
Play On: @ Alabama 10/22
This long time SEC rivalry used to always be played on the 3rd Saturday in October. When the SEC expanded, that tradition went by the boards. One thing that has not changed in the visitor is 12-1 ATS in this contest.
Play Against: Mississippi 10/1
This is the middle game of a monstrous early season schedule for the Vols. This fits a natural letdown situation for Tennessee. The home team is 3-10 ATS.
South Carolina
Play On: Vanderbilt 10/22
The Gamecocks have owned the Commodores with a 10-3 against the spread record.
Play Against: @ Arkansas 11/5
With South Carolina off Tennessee and Florida on deck, Arkansas can cause a hog of trouble for the Gamecocks. The Razorbacks are 6-1 ATS vs. South Carolina.
Vanderbilt
Play On: Kentucky 11/12
Vandy will have a chance to put Kentucky out of its misery with a home win. The Commodores are 15-5 ATS including 7-2 in Nashville. The home favorite is 10-4 against the number in this battle of neighboring states.
Play Against: Georgia 10/15
Vandy has been less then dandy vs. the SEC East with a 1-19 SU record. The visitor is a lucrative 10-3 ATS.
Kentucky
Play On: @ Indiana 9/17
Coach Brooks has stated this is his best team at Lexington. The Wildcats are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in this border SEC/Big10(11) contest.
Play Against: @ Georgia 11/19
Kentucky has been an underdog 27 straight times to Georgia. The Wildcats are 2-11 ATS in the last road game of the season.
West Division
LSU
Play On: @ Alabama 11/12
In this highly unusual series, the visitor failed to cover last year for the first time in a dozen tries. Things revert back to normal at Bama.
Play Against: Florida 10/15
In this highly anticipated game of ranked teams, the home squad is only 3-10 ATS.
Auburn
Play On: Mississippi State 9/10
The Tigers are a perfect 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS in SEC openers. The “chalk” in this series is 10-3 ATS
Play Against: @ Arkansas 10/15
The Tigers head into trouble where the Razorbacks are 9-3 ATS as home dogs. Little comfort is added to Coach Tuberville whose Tigers are 0-5 against the number in the first of back to back road games.
Alabama
Play On: So. Mississippi 9/10
The Crimson Tide are 7-1 SU and ATS against the Golden Eagles. Alabama rolls in this low-scoring non-conference affair.
Play Against: Tennessee 10/22
The home team can not help but trip up in this long time southern rivalry. The home team has lost 12 of 13 ATS.
Arkansas
Play On: Auburn 10/15
The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these SEC West division combatants. Coach Nutt always has the Hogs ready as home underdogs, with a 9-3 ATS
mark.
Play Against: @ USC 9/17
This will not be a good match in styles. The Trojans wide receivers will have the Arkansas defensive backs heads spinning. Big Time Blowout in Cally.
Mississippi
Play On: Wyoming 9/24
Last year was an embarrassment for the Rebels in Laramie. New Coach Orgeron will have the Rebels well prepared for their home opener with him as head coach.
Play Against: Alabama 10/15
The straight winner is this SEC contest is 19-2 ATS. Alabama has superior talent, as the Tide roll to another win.
Mississippi State
Play On: Alabama 11/5
The Bulldogs always give the Tide trouble with an 11-3 ATS mark, despite posting only 4 wins in 14 tries.
Play Against: LSU 10/1
The Bengals Tigers have run roughshod over the Bulldogs in delivering a 12-1 record both SU & ATS.
2005 Mountain West Preview
In last year’s stats, we called for an unbeaten season from Utah and it delivered in stellar fashion, winning all 12 games by a margin of 45.3-19.5 while delivering the first BCS Bowl appearance and victory for the Mountain West Conference. The level of dominance conference play was even more staggering as the Utes won their league games by 29 PPG and at one stretch recorded five consecutive wins by 20 points or more. For the school, it was the second straight conference title, and they remain one of only three teams able to stake claim to a MWC Championship. Thankfully for the rest of the league, the loss of two key Utes, Head Coach Urban Meyer, and top NFL Draft Pick QB Alex Smith, immediately injects some parity back into the conference. Elsewhere in 2004, the remaining seven teams performed a virtual flip of the projections by most experts as New Mexico, BYU, and Wyoming turned in surprising seasons and perennial powers Colorado State and Air Force, as well as expected contender San Diego State, struggled.
A new wrinkle is thrown into the mix for 2005 as TCU joins the Mountain West. The Horned Frogs are a familiar foe to the current MWC representatives, having played one another from ’97-’99 in the old WAC. TCU has won 26 games over the past three seasons so should be an immediate factor in its new surroundings. Alongside of that, it was a fairly active offseason in terms of coaching changes, as three of the 9 teams start anew on the sidelines. As mentioned earlier, Utah’s Urban Meyer has departed for Florida, and is replaced by Defensive Coordinator Kyle Whittingham. At UNLV, John Robinson is out in favor of Mike Sanford, and finally, BYU turns to Bronco Mendenhall in place of Gary Crowton. On the field, Smith is the biggest departing standout from a league not exactly known for its star power. The 2005 standings are expected to be balanced, with Utah recognized as the favorite and upstarts BYU & Wyoming potential contenders if everything goes right for each.
Utah
Play On: San Diego State 10/15
Utah is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS against the Aztecs, with the average winning margin being 19 points per game. The straight up winner of this series is 15-1 ATS. Look for the Utes to make it 16-1.
Play Against: @Colorado State 10/8
Distinct possibility Utah could still be undefeated and a slight road favorite, if that was the case. Utah is 2-5 ATS against the Rams the last seven years and last year’s 63-31 blowout was the most points surrendered in the Sonny Lubick era.
Colorado State
Play On: San Diego State 11/12
Rams return 17 starters after first losing season in a decade. Colorado State has had great success against S.D. State with a 7-2 record both SU and ATS against the Aztecs.
Play Against: Air Force 10/1
CSU has monster revenge game with Utah next week, which makes Air Force easy to overlook. The favorite is 4-10-1 against the number in the MWC contests and the Rams are 0-8-1 in league openers.
San Diego State
Play On: @Ohio State 9/17
The offensive minded Aztecs catch Ohio State at the perfect time. The Buckeyes will be off colossal match-up with Texas. Two years ago San Diego State gave Coach Tressel’s team all it could handle with a narrow 16-13 win as -30 home favorites.
Play Against: @Air Force 9/10
Despite this being a Mountain West Conference game, this falls into the sandwich situation for the Aztecs. S.D. State opens at home with the Pac-10’s UCLA Bruins and has Big 10(11) power Ohio State after this contest. Coach Craft’s team has a long history of failure in road openers, with a 0-12 record and dismal 4-8 ATS mark.
BYU
Play On: Air Force 10/29
BYU will be off possible loss at Notre Dame, will resume MWC play with the knowledge the winner of the contest is an incredible 17-1 ATS.
Play Against: @Wyoming 11/12
Cowboys appear to have best team since 1999 with 17 returning starters. Possible All-Conference QB Bramlett might have field day against Cougars. BYU is 8-2 vs. Wyoming, with the exact reverse record being true against the spread. (2-8)
Texas Christian
Play On: Utah 9/15
This ESPN Thursday special will be TCU’s first game as a Mountain West member. This excited home dog is 8-2 ATS against teams with a >.600 record.
Play Against: @Wyoming 10/8
TCU allowed 304 yards passing per game and will square off against pass happy Wyoming. Has the making of another long day for the Horned Frogs with their first trip to Laramie.
Wyoming
Play On: @Colorado State 10/22
This “Border War” has been played every year since 1946. The visitor has been unkind to the host with a 10-3 ATS record in this series.
Play Against: @Florida 9/3
Traveling to hot and humid Gainesville will be no treat for a team for Wyoming. Facing a coach like Urban Meyer who is familiar with your team only complicates the matter.
New Mexico
Play On: @San Diego State 10/22
Lobos are 9-1 ATS vs. San Diego State including four straight wins.
Play Against: @UTEP 9/24
After a rivalry game with New Mexico State, the Lobos face a tough trip to explosive Texas-El Paso. The Miners have too many weapons for Coach Long’s unusual 3-3-5 defense.
Air Force
Play On: Army 11/5
The home team is 15-0 ATS in this service academy match-up.
Play Against: Wyoming 9/17
The Falcons are below .500 with Coach DeBerry at the helm in Colorado Springs. With Air Force a possible field goal favorite at this time, look for the Cowboys to lasso the Falcons and pull the upset.
UNLV
Play On: Idaho 9/10
New Coach Sanford will only have 9 returning starters to work with. This will be the Rebels only home game in their first five games of the year. UNLV needs this one badly to excite the fans for the new coach.
Play Against: @New Mexico 9/3
New Mexico’s tricky defense and experienced offense will take down the Rebels in the opener for both teams. Speaking of opener’s, UNLV is 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS when hitting the road for the first time of a given season.
2005 MAC Preview
Conference realignment hit the Mid-American conference right where it hurts as perennial league power Marshall left for Conference USA. Fortunately, losing perhaps its most recognizable school comes at a time when the conference is at the height of its success in terms of football. The MAC placed a league record five teams in bowl games a year ago. Though only Bowling Green and Northern Illinois won their respective bowl contests, it was still a landmark achievement for the league. For 2005, there are only two established relationships with bowl games, but if things work out like last season, it’s perceivable that another three or four teams could receive bids, as Toledo, and Miami Ohio have the talent to join last year’s winning MAC bowl teams in the postseason. On a down note, the MAC went just 5-34 SU against teams from other 1-A conferences last season, poor by recent league standards.
There are a few key changes in the MAC this season that are worthy of note. The departure of Marshall, as well as Central Florida, left the league with 12 teams. While the MAC still qualifies to host a league title game with that number, the divisions did require some reshuffling. As such, Bowling Green now finds itself in the East Division where it should contend with Miami Ohio for supremacy. The Redhawks begin their first season under Shane Montgomery, as former Head Coach Terry Hoeppner left for the greener pastures of the Big Ten and Indiana. Elsewhere on the coaching front, Bill Cubit, a long time offensive coordinator with Western Michigan, returns there as head coach in 2005, and Ohio University hands its football program over to Frank Solich, the former embattled coach of Nebraska. Finally, on the playing field, most of the league’s defensive standouts from 2004 are gone, but the return of QB Omar Jacobs of Bowling Green, QB Bruce Gradkowski of Toledo, and RB Garrett Wolfe of Northern Illinois, should be more than enough to sustain the league’s star power.
East Division
Miami- Ohio
Play On: Buffalo 11/5
This veteran Miami-O squad is 18-5 ATS as a home conference favorite and 14-5 against the number off a 2-game road trip.
Play Against: @ Kent State 9/17
The Redhawks travel to Kent State with a big in-state rivalry game with Cincinnati on tap. The visitor in the MAC match-up is 1-6 ATS.
Bowling Green
Play On: Temple 10/1
The Falcons are 9-1 ATS off back-to-back road games. Bowling Green plans to give a hoot at homecoming against now independent Temple Owls.
Play Against: @ Miami-O 11/15
Bowling Green has not beaten the Redhawks since 1997. These Eastern Division rivals go at with a vengeance, with the Falcons 0-5 ATS.
Kent State
Play On: @ Michigan State 9/3
The Golden Flashes have 7 starters back on each side of the ball and are 8-1 against the spread when a 10-28 underdog.
Play Against: @ Western Michigan 10/29
Kent State has lost 11 consecutive times to the Broncos with a 3-7 ATS record.
Akron
Play On: Central Michigan 10/1
Akron off a probable loss is 6-1 ATS in the 2nd of back to back home contests.
Play Against: @ Kent State 11/23
The home team is 0-7 ATS in what will be the season finale for these MAC East teams.
Ohio U.
Play On: Pittsburgh 9/10
The Panthers will be off big home game with Notre Dame maybe unsettled coming into Athens. Ohio U. is 5-1 against the number with revenge on their minds.
Play Against: @ Bowling Green 10/8
The Bobcats visit Bowling Green armed with the knowledge that they are 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS vs. the Falcons.
Buffalo
Play On: Ohio U. 10/29
These evenly matched teams compete for the MAC basement, has Buffalo 4-1 ATS against Bobcats.
Play Against: @ Syracuse 9/10
Buffalo surely has a speed problem on artificial turf with a 1-18 SU record. The stronger, faster Orangemen squeeze the Bulls and win decisively.
West
Toledo
Play On: Northern Illinois 11/16
With this likely the battle for the MAC West crown, Toledo has had the Huskies number. The Rockets was won 11 straight and dominated NIU 9-1-1 ATS.
Play Against: @ Bowling Green 10/22
These top MAC teams conclude their regular season’s with this contest. The visitor takes it on the chin with a 0-7 ATS mark in this game.
Northern Illinois
Play On: Miami-O 10/5
NIU is 21-9 ATS in October and 11-4 vs. number the last three seasons at Husky Stadium.
Play Against: Toledo 11/16
Huskies are 1-16 all-time vs. Toledo and have covered once in 11 tries vs. the Falcons.
Eastern Michigan
Play On: @ Toledo 10/8
The Eagles are 7-2-1 ATS over last decade against Toledo, with the Rockets being favored by an average by 19 points.
Play Against: Miami-O 10/22
Eastern Michigan could be worn down after trips to Toledo and Northern Illinois. Another top level MAC team will be too much for the Eagles to handle.
Western Michigan
Play On: Kent State 10/29
The Broncos have won 10 straight against Kent State and hold a 7-3 ATS mark.
Play Against: @ Northern Illinois 11/22
The Huskies should have bowl implications for this game. Western Mich. is 2-13 ATS with revenge and 1-7 ATS vs. NIU.
Central Michigan
Play On: Ohio U. 10/15
This homecoming game has the home team at 5-1 ATS and the Chippewas are 7-1 vs. the spread off a non-conference game.
Play Against: @Penn State 9/17
This over-matched team is 3-11 ATS on the road in non-conference contests.
Ball State
Play On: Ohio U. 10/22
Ball State should be 0-6 coming into this game. With the Cardinals a probable road dog, against an equally bad Ohio U. squad, this might provide value since the visitor has covered 71% of the last seven games.
Play Against: @ Auburn 9/17
The Tigers can name the score in this home game. Ball State has only 9 seniors that could start. Auburn executes a 4th quarter cover in this SEC/ MAC match-up.
2005 Independents Preview
The number of schools playing as Independents climbs back up to four in 2005, matching the total of 2003 before Troy State and Connecticut began conference affiliation. Army and Temple are the latest programs to join the independent ranks, with the Black Knights leaving Conference USA and the Owls having departed the Big East. Neither team enjoyed the stay in its respective conference, so each will be looking for a fresh start in 2005. Perhaps independence is just what the doctor ordered for both. Meanwhile, Navy comes off its best season in decades having won 10 games, including a 34-19 Emerald Bowl decision over New Mexico. The Midshipmen may be headed for rebuilding though, as several of the stars of that team have been lost to graduation. Finally, in South Bend, a new era begins as Charlie Weis takes over for Tyrone Willingham after the Irish struggled to a 6-6 finish in 2004. The magic of Willingham’s first season in 2002 quickly wore off and he was ousted after just three short years. Notre Dame, and NBC for that matter, badly need for a quick turnaround for the nation’s most visible football program. As usual, the Irish do themselves no favors with a murderer’s row schedule. At the end of the season, it’s a strong possibility that not a single team of the four independents will be playing in a bowl game.
Notre Dame
Play On: Michigan State 9/17
This is the Irish’s first home game under new Coach Weis and should be revved up after two tough road games. With all 11 starters back on offense, Notre Dame should take out the Spartans in their only home game in the first five contests of 2005.
Play Against: Tennessee 11/5
Off last year’s upset in Knoxville, the highly ranked Vols will want to turn the tables on Notre Dame. The Irish are only 11-18 ATS in November.
Navy
Play On: @ Notre Dame 11/12
Navy has lost 41 consecutive games to Notre Dame. (NCAA record) The Midshipmen have sunk the Irish 11 of 15 times against the spread.
Play Against: neutral site- Maryland 9/3
With only two offensive starters back for Navy, that spells trouble against the fast starting Terps. The neutral site decreases value towards the Midshipmen.
Temple
Play On: @ Wisconsin 9/10
With forced upon independent status for Temple, the Owls travel to Madison. Temple is 12-4 ATS off a presumed loss and 21-12-1 ATS under Co. Wallace.
Play Against: Toledo 9/17
The Rockets can explode with points on the scoreboard. Temple is 1-9 ATS against MAC schools.
Army
Play On: Cent. Michigan 10/8
This is the most winnable game to start the new era of Independence for the Cadets. The Black Knights are 10-4 SU and 8-3 ATS against the MAC.
Play Against: @ Air Force 11/5
The visitor is 6-15 ATS in this service academy contest. Army is an awful 1-15 against the number off a bye.
2005 Pac 10 Preview
Any talk of the Pac 10 in recent years has to start with the tremendous accomplishments by USC. Three straight conference titles, three straight BCS Bowl victories, and of course, back-to-back national titles. In fact, in 2005, the Trojans will try to become the first team ever to win three straight national championships. Clearly, every other storyline in the Pac 10 takes a backseat to that chase this season. Elsewhere, Arizona State appears to be the only other team with a reasonable chance of unseating USC in conference play. The Sun Devils come off a Sun Bowl winning season and boast one of the most potent offensive attacks in the league. California, Oregon, and UCLA are the three other returning bowl teams from 2004 but each sits a notch below USC in terms of talent and questions heading into the season. On an individual front, several key Pac 10 players are vying for various honors this season, including QB Matt Leinart and RB Reggie Bush of USC, WR Derek Hagan of Arizona State, and the UCLA duo of QB Drew Olsen and RB Maurice Drew.
The Pac 10 was one of the few conferences left unchanged by realignment so everything should remain status quo for 2005. The only minor changes to note are on the coaching front and in instant replay usage, as the league has decided to use instant replay on an experimental basis this season. As far as coaching changes are concerned, two new high profile names will be manning the sidelines in Pac 10 games in 2005 as Walt Harris takes over at Pittsburgh and Tyrone Willingham assumes the controls at Washington. The conference again has relationships with six bowl games but could place as many as seven teams in the postseason if the stars align.
Southern California
Play On: @ California 11/12
USC has had a few problems with Cal over the last couple of years; however the Bears return just 8 starters and have lost all the top playmakers. The visitor is 7-2 against the spread and Coach Carroll’s Trojans are 11-2 ATS in November.
Play Against: @ Arizona State 10/1
This will be a much anticipated shootout in the desert, with the visitor in this big Pac-10 game 3-7 ATS.
California
Play On: Illinois 9/17
After Pac-10 opener, Cal faces an Illinois team in transition under Co. Ron Zook. Anytime you can beat a Big 10(11) team if you’re from the West Coast, that is of note and the Bears are 6-1 home off an away game.
Play Against: @ Oregon 11/5
Eugene is always a tough place to win, especially if your California, who is 2-8 SU and against the spread.
Oregon
Play On: Oregon State 11/18
The Ducks will be quacking in this case as the home team is 7-1 ATS.
Play Against: @ Stanford 10/1
With a home game with USC the week prior and a trip to Arizona State to follow; this is a “classic sandwich” situation. This trip to ‘The Farm’ will be unpleasant for Oregon.
Arizona State
Play On: Temple 9/1
ASU is hoping for a big season and it starts with newly adorned independent Temple. The Sun Devils are 9-3 ATS in non-conference home games over the last dozen.
Play Against: @ Oregon State 9/24
The Sun Devils are in a look ahead situation with USC coming to Tempe. The visitor in this Pac-10 contest is 0-7 ATS. ASU is 4-12 ATS in conference road openers.
UCLA
Play On: Washington 10/1
UCLA is 7-1 and 7-0-1 against the number vs. these passive Huskies.
Play Against: @ Washington State 10/15
The Bruins visiting Pullman has not been good for UCLA. The Cougars are 8-3 SU and ATS at home against Coach Dorrell’s team.
Oregon State
Play On: Arizona 10/29
The favorite is a terrific 8-1 ATS in this Pac-10 match-up. The Beavers are always eager at Corvallis with a 20-6 against the spread record the last seven years.
Play Against: @ Louisville 9/17
OSU returns 13 starters, unfortunately the attrition cost them many playmakers on both sides of the ball. With Louisville favored to be the Big East champions, knocking off a Pac-10 team would be a treat. The Beavers are 3-7 ATS on road openers the last decade.
Washington
Play On: Oregon State 11/5
New coach Tyrone Willingham returns to Pac-10 country armed with 19 starters back. The Huskies off a dismal year, are 7-3 ATS in November recently.
Play Against: @ UCLA 10/1
Most dogs like grass, but these Huskies are 2-12 ATS on the real stuff. UCLA has mastered Washington with a 7-0-1 ATS mark.
Washington State
Play On: @ Nevada 9/9
The Cougars like to start fast with an 8-3 against the spread record in road openers since 1994.
Play Against: @ California 10/1
The visitor is an ugly 2-11 ATS in this Pacific-10 series.
Arizona
Play On: @ Arizona State 11/25
This duel in the desert rivalry has the visitor posting a 10-3 ATS record.
Play Against: Washington 11/12
Arizona is 2-10 ATS before playing Arizona State and 1-10 vs. the spread in their final home game.
Stanford
Play On: @Washington State 10/8
Stanford loves those burgundy and grey uniforms of Washington State. The Cardinal is 11-2 ATS against Wazzou, including 5-0 at Pullman.
Play Against: Notre Dame 11/26
Now having to play the Irish after the big game with California, leaves the emotional tank dry. The Cardinal is 2-8 ATS vs. Notre Dame.
2005 Big East Preview
The Big East Conference was righteously maligned for most of the 2004 season as no team in the league distanced itself enough to be considered worthy of the conference’s automatic BCS Bowl spot. Pittsburgh eventually claimed the reward by virtue of a four-team tiebreaker, but was then blasted by Utah in the Fiesta Bowl. West Virginia was generally regarded as the league’s best team, but the Mountaineers were upset in their final two regular season games to fall out of the championship picture. Of the other five teams, Syracuse and Boston College also managed to split the Big East title at 4-2. Obviously, with the prior year’s departure of perennial powers Miami and Virginia Tech, there were telltale signs that this conference could be in for a tough season. For 2005, the league takes another hit as realignment continues with Boston College leaving for the ACC. On a good note, despite being the country’s smallest conference, it still placed a respectable five teams in bowl games. Of those, Connecticut and BC were the only teams to record wins.
Over the course of the last two years, realignment has left the Big East conference as barely recognizable. Most of the traditional powers are gone, with just Pittsburgh, Syracuse and West Virginia having any history in this league to boast of. That’s not to say that the league is at its lowest point though, as the addition of Louisville, combined with the loss of Temple, probably cemented that honor for 2004. The Cardinals, who scored nearly 50 PPG last season, are expected to be major factor immediately, as many publications, including the ******* Edge, actually pick them as the favorites. Fellow newcomers South Florida and Cincinnati might also enjoy some success, but probably not nearly as much, nor as early, as Louisville. Among the other expected contenders this year are Pittsburgh, which begins its first season under Dave Wannstedt, and Syracuse, who also turns to a former pro coach, Greg Robinson. Whomever it turns out to be representing the finally stabilized Big East in the BCS, conference officials can rest easier, knowing the worst is probably behind them.
Louisville
Play On: @Cincinnati 10/22
Both Louisville and Cincinnati join the Big East after departing C-USA. With the Cardinals probably being a high single digit road favorite, we’ll side with the fact that the favorite is 7-1 ATS in this series.
Play Against: Pittsburgh 11/3
This Thursday match-up could pose problems for Louisville. The physical style that Pittsburgh likes to employ could cause the Redbirds trouble. Louisville should be a touchdown or more favorite, in what could be a game for the Big East crown. Expect a tight ballgame with a winner being determined late.
Pittsburgh
Play On: @West Virginia 11/24
In the “Backyard Brawl” the visitor is 12-5 70.5%. Panthers made need this one to wrap up BCS bid for 2nd straight year.
Play Against: @Ohio U. 9/17
Difficult “sandwich” situation for Pittsburgh. Playing Notre Dame in the opener and having a roadie at Nebraska after this game, a good sized double digit favorite may not have on its game face in Athens, Ohio.
Rutgers
Play On: West Virginia 10/6
Scarlet Knights grabbed the cash as two touchdown HD last year in losing 35-30. Rutgers is improved and the Mountaineers will be very young. The home team has covered 11 of 14 times in this Big East contest.
Play Against: @Syracuse 10/15
Rutgers Knights turn into jackals when facing those dreaded orange jerseys. Rutgers is
2-16 SU and 4-14 ATS vs. the Orangemen.
West Virginia
Play On: East Carolina 9/24
After an always difficult contest with Maryland, the Mountaineers can gear up for an easy winner against ECU in Morgantown. West Virginia can take comfort in the fact that they are 10-0 vs. the Pirates at home and covering 71.4% of the time.
Play Against: @Maryland 9/17
Every team has a nemesis and this is the one that confounds West Virginia. The Mountaineers escaped in overtime last year 19-16, yet did not cover as 6-point favorites.
With UWV 0-5 ATS against the Terrapins, we’ll go against the Mountaineers one more time.
Syracuse
Play On: West Virginia 9/3
The Orangemen return 16 starters and will have a great deal of excitement building around new Coach Robinson. UWV is young and will be seeking an identity. With Syracuse a probable 4-5 point home favorite, take solace in the knowledge that the favorite is 13-3-1 with these long time rivals.
Play Against: @Florida State 10/1
As venerable announcer Keith Jackson would say “Whoa Nelly!” Tallahassee is not the place to make your road debut as a college coach. Syracuse is 9-21 ATS as an away dog.
Connecticut
Play On: @West Virginia 11/2
The Huskies are hungry for more TV exposure and this weekday tilt will satisfy that desire. UConn is 9-2 ATS as double digits dogs and 10-2-1 against the number in November.
Play Against: @Georgia Tech 9/17
Games with Buffalo and Liberty will not prepare UConn for Georgia Tech. A new QB for the Huskies will face a major road test, as they lost here 30-10 last year with outstanding quarterback Dan Orlovsky.
South Florida
Play On: Cincinnati 11/19
South Florida has a great advantage playing in the heat of November against a northern tier team. With the Bulls hurry-up offense, this should be too much for the Bearcats to keep up with in Tampa.
Play Against: @Pittsburgh 10/15
After playing both Louisville and Miami., the physical nature of Pittsburgh will take its toll on these worn-out Bulls.
Cincinnati
Play On: Connecticut: 11/15
With only six returning starters back for the Bearcats, slim pickings to post on the left side of the ledger. This becomes a must win contest for Cincy as single digit favs.
Play Against: @Miami-Ohio 9/28
Last year’s Bearcat blow-out was a rare occurrence for these in-state rivals. The loaded Redhawks will be ready to swoop in and seek revenge for last year’s 19-point pasting.
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NCAA Football Trends
2005 Big Ten Preview
Six Big Ten schools qualified for bowl games in 2004, as a loss by Northwestern in its season finale kept that number from running to seven. It is becoming the norm for this conference to place that many teams in the postseason, and in fact, for 2005, the Big Ten has relationships with officially seven bowl games. Of the six teams that did play, their record was only 3-3, with all three defeats coming in heartbreaking fashion. Also, none of the top teams were ever in national title consideration, so in that sense, it was a down year for the Big Ten Conference. The 2005 campaign is expected to bring this league back to the forefront, as three teams in particular, Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa, boast returning talent capable of playing with anyone in the country. A host of young stars from those teams, including RB Michael Hart and QB Chad Henne of Michigan, WR Ted Ginn of Ohio State, and QB Drew Tate of Iowa, put on prominent performances in their respective bowl games, and are consequently being recognized for preseason individual honors.
Thankfully, the Big Ten is another conference that was unaffected by realignment. Most of what was in place for 2004, including instant replay, will remain so for 2005. Two coaching changes were made however, as Indiana grabbed Terry Hoeppner from Miami Ohio to replace Gerry DiNardo, and Illinois turned to former Florida Head Coach Ron Zook to resurrect its program. With the top three teams in prominent national position, and the next level of teams, notably Purdue, Michigan State, and Wisconsin always capable of making noise, the 110th season of Big Ten football could turn out to be one of its best.
Purdue
Play On: Iowa 10/8
The home team is 8-3 ATS in this series. Coach Tiller and the Boilermakers are 22-8-2 ATS in Big 10 home games.
Play Against: @ Penn State 10/29
Purdue is 3-11 against the spread under Co. Tiller as an away underdog. The Boilers are 1-10 ATS as Big 10 road dogs of 7 or less points.
Michigan
Play On: Pen State 10/15
Superb situation for Michigan, who catch the Nittany Lions off big home game against Ohio State. The Wolverines are 5-1 ATS against Penn State.
Play Against: @ Wisconsin 9/24
Despite the fact that the Badgers will be down this year, Michigan is 3-7 ATS vs. Bucky and 8-20 ATS as a road favorite. Wolverines have dropped last SEVEN road openers to the spread.
Ohio State
Play On: Iowa 9/24
Monster revenge spot for Ohio State off last year’s 33-7 whipping at Iowa City. Buckeyes are 10-2-1 SU and 10-3 ATS against the Hawkeyes.
Play Against: San Diego State 9/17
After a huge home game with Texas and revenge contest with Iowa, this is standard issue sandwich game. The Aztecs are unlikely to draw much emotion from Ohio State. Two years ago San Diego visited the former ‘Horseshoe’ and lost 16-13 as 30-point underdogs.
Iowa
Play On: Illinois 10/1
Iowa off probable loss at Ohio State is 14-4-1 ATS in next contest after dropping a game.
Play Against: @ Ohio State 9/24
Last year’s 26-point win was the largest margin of victory for Iowa over the Buckeyes. Welcome back to the ‘Horseshoe’ Iowa.
Michigan State
Play On: Penn State 11/19
6 of the 8 times these teams have met; the average winning margin has been 32 points. In each case the home team won. The Spartans are 13-0-1 ATS in home finales.
Play Against: @ Purdue 11/5
With Purdue always tough at home, the Spartans are 4-9-1 ATS in recent November contests and 1-6 against the spread at West Lafayette.
Penn State
Play On: Central Michigan 9/17
The Nittany Lions have three cupcakes at home before the Big 10 season commences. Co. Paterno is 13-2 vs. MAC teams and 11-1 ATS as double digit favorites against teams below .500.
Play Against: @ Michigan State 11/19
The home team is 10-2 against the number in this season closing series for both teams.
Wisconsin
Play On: Iowa 11/12
This figures to be emotional game anyway, which is made more significant with this being Barry Alvarez’s last home game as coach. Wisky is 12-2 ATS in last home games.
Play Against: @ Northwestern 10/8
These next door neighbors have troubled Wisconsin for years. The Badgers are 1-7 ATS at Evanston, with the home team posting an 11-3-1 ATS mark.
Minnesota
Play On: Florida Atlantic 9/17
Minnesota loves non-conference home blowout games, owning an 8-0 record. Coach Mason will try and start 3-0 for the 4th consecutive year by covering a large number.
Play Against: @ Iowa 11/19
The Floyd of Rosedale trophy has been residing in Iowa for 4 straight years. Minnesota is 1-11 ATS vs. Hawkeyes including 0-6 at Iowa City. The Gophers last road cover against Iowa was 1991.
Illinois
Play On: @ Ohio State 11/5
The Illini are 14-4 ATS vs. Ohio State. With new Coach Ron Zook’s penchant for his team’s playing well on the road, no reason to think anything differently will occur here.
Play Against: @ Purdue 11/12
The straight winner is 11-2-1 ATS in this Big 10 series. The Illini will not win.
Indiana
Play On: Illinois 10/8
This represents the only real shot the Hoosiers have at winning a Big 10 game on paper. The home team has covered 75% of the last eight meetings.
Play Against: @ Wisconsin 10/1
The Hoosiers are 9-21 ATS as road dogs the last seven years.
Northwestern
Play On: @ Arizona State 9/17
The Wildcats are 9-3 ATS in non-conference road games. Co. Walker’s Cats are 8-2 against the spread when dressed up as dogs.
Play Against: @ Purdue 10/15
Northwestern is 2-6-1 ATS against Purdue.
2005 SEC Preview
In 2004, the Southeastern Conference experienced an unusual circumstance, an undefeated team from its highly regarded league being shutout of the national championship picture. Auburn rolled to 13-0 record a year ago, including an impressive 38-28 dismantling of Tennessee in the SEC title game, only to finish third in the BCS standings behind two other power conference unbeatens. It’s a scenario that probably won’t be seen again for long time, and one that commands more attention to a potential playoff system. It was still a remarkable season for the Tigers but one that might be remembered more for what didn’t happen on the field than for what did. Elsewhere, the Volunteers enjoyed a renaissance season behind a pair of freshmen quarterbacks, capped by a Cotton Bowl win, and Georgia said goodbye to an elite class of seniors by winning the Outback Bowl. It wasn’t so pretty at other schools though as LSU fell victim to a miraculous play by Iowa in the Capital One Bowl, and Alabama and Florida each lost their respective postseason contests. The most noteworthy incident though surrounded the season finale game between South Carolina and rival Clemson, in which a massive brawl ensued at the end of the contest, marring the coaching finale of Lou Holtz at USC. Both teams elected to withdraw from bowl consideration following the ugly incident.
For 2005, the SEC again figures to have at least three teams among the BCS contenders. LSU, Tennessee, and Florida are all coming back loaded and hungry for the upcoming season. LSU and Florida each welcome in new coaches, as Les Miles takes over Nick Saban in Tiger country and Urban Meyer gains control of the Gators. Ironically, those high profile changes pale in comparison to the coaching replacement for the Gamecocks, as the SEC welcomes back Steve Spurrier to the college ranks. His arrival has created a fan frenzy in Columbia, and made the contest between USC and Florida on November 12th one of the most intriguing, can’t miss games of the season. Finally, at Ole Miss, Ed Orgeron takes over as head coach for David Cutcliffe. From a player standpoint, look for QB Chris Leak of Florida, and Tennessee’s RB Gerald Riggs and QB Erik Ainge to grab most of the headlines not given out to the coaches. Instant replay will also be in play in the SEC for 2005.
East Division
Georgia
Play On: @ Vanderbilt 10/15
With the Bulldogs off a possible loss at Tennessee, Georgia bounces back knowing they have won 26 of 27 by double digits against Vandy. Expect much more of the same in the Music City.
Play Against: Florida 10/29
The world’s largest outdoor cocktail party has had Georgia fans drowning their sorrows with a 2-13 SU record and 4-11 ATS after the games. No reason to look for anything different in Jacksonville again.
Florida
Play On: Florida State 11/26
The Gators have more talent and are better coached under Urban Meyer. The straight up winner in this in-state rivalry is 22-1-1 ATS. Florida wins at home.
Play Against: @ South Carolina 11/12
The ol’ ball coach will have his boys revved up when Florida visits Columbia. The Gators are 5-8 ATS the last four years as road favorites.
Tennessee
Play On: @ Alabama 10/22
This long time SEC rivalry used to always be played on the 3rd Saturday in October. When the SEC expanded, that tradition went by the boards. One thing that has not changed in the visitor is 12-1 ATS in this contest.
Play Against: Mississippi 10/1
This is the middle game of a monstrous early season schedule for the Vols. This fits a natural letdown situation for Tennessee. The home team is 3-10 ATS.
South Carolina
Play On: Vanderbilt 10/22
The Gamecocks have owned the Commodores with a 10-3 against the spread record.
Play Against: @ Arkansas 11/5
With South Carolina off Tennessee and Florida on deck, Arkansas can cause a hog of trouble for the Gamecocks. The Razorbacks are 6-1 ATS vs. South Carolina.
Vanderbilt
Play On: Kentucky 11/12
Vandy will have a chance to put Kentucky out of its misery with a home win. The Commodores are 15-5 ATS including 7-2 in Nashville. The home favorite is 10-4 against the number in this battle of neighboring states.
Play Against: Georgia 10/15
Vandy has been less then dandy vs. the SEC East with a 1-19 SU record. The visitor is a lucrative 10-3 ATS.
Kentucky
Play On: @ Indiana 9/17
Coach Brooks has stated this is his best team at Lexington. The Wildcats are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in this border SEC/Big10(11) contest.
Play Against: @ Georgia 11/19
Kentucky has been an underdog 27 straight times to Georgia. The Wildcats are 2-11 ATS in the last road game of the season.
West Division
LSU
Play On: @ Alabama 11/12
In this highly unusual series, the visitor failed to cover last year for the first time in a dozen tries. Things revert back to normal at Bama.
Play Against: Florida 10/15
In this highly anticipated game of ranked teams, the home squad is only 3-10 ATS.
Auburn
Play On: Mississippi State 9/10
The Tigers are a perfect 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS in SEC openers. The “chalk” in this series is 10-3 ATS
Play Against: @ Arkansas 10/15
The Tigers head into trouble where the Razorbacks are 9-3 ATS as home dogs. Little comfort is added to Coach Tuberville whose Tigers are 0-5 against the number in the first of back to back road games.
Alabama
Play On: So. Mississippi 9/10
The Crimson Tide are 7-1 SU and ATS against the Golden Eagles. Alabama rolls in this low-scoring non-conference affair.
Play Against: Tennessee 10/22
The home team can not help but trip up in this long time southern rivalry. The home team has lost 12 of 13 ATS.
Arkansas
Play On: Auburn 10/15
The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these SEC West division combatants. Coach Nutt always has the Hogs ready as home underdogs, with a 9-3 ATS
mark.
Play Against: @ USC 9/17
This will not be a good match in styles. The Trojans wide receivers will have the Arkansas defensive backs heads spinning. Big Time Blowout in Cally.
Mississippi
Play On: Wyoming 9/24
Last year was an embarrassment for the Rebels in Laramie. New Coach Orgeron will have the Rebels well prepared for their home opener with him as head coach.
Play Against: Alabama 10/15
The straight winner is this SEC contest is 19-2 ATS. Alabama has superior talent, as the Tide roll to another win.
Mississippi State
Play On: Alabama 11/5
The Bulldogs always give the Tide trouble with an 11-3 ATS mark, despite posting only 4 wins in 14 tries.
Play Against: LSU 10/1
The Bengals Tigers have run roughshod over the Bulldogs in delivering a 12-1 record both SU & ATS.
2005 Mountain West Preview
In last year’s stats, we called for an unbeaten season from Utah and it delivered in stellar fashion, winning all 12 games by a margin of 45.3-19.5 while delivering the first BCS Bowl appearance and victory for the Mountain West Conference. The level of dominance conference play was even more staggering as the Utes won their league games by 29 PPG and at one stretch recorded five consecutive wins by 20 points or more. For the school, it was the second straight conference title, and they remain one of only three teams able to stake claim to a MWC Championship. Thankfully for the rest of the league, the loss of two key Utes, Head Coach Urban Meyer, and top NFL Draft Pick QB Alex Smith, immediately injects some parity back into the conference. Elsewhere in 2004, the remaining seven teams performed a virtual flip of the projections by most experts as New Mexico, BYU, and Wyoming turned in surprising seasons and perennial powers Colorado State and Air Force, as well as expected contender San Diego State, struggled.
A new wrinkle is thrown into the mix for 2005 as TCU joins the Mountain West. The Horned Frogs are a familiar foe to the current MWC representatives, having played one another from ’97-’99 in the old WAC. TCU has won 26 games over the past three seasons so should be an immediate factor in its new surroundings. Alongside of that, it was a fairly active offseason in terms of coaching changes, as three of the 9 teams start anew on the sidelines. As mentioned earlier, Utah’s Urban Meyer has departed for Florida, and is replaced by Defensive Coordinator Kyle Whittingham. At UNLV, John Robinson is out in favor of Mike Sanford, and finally, BYU turns to Bronco Mendenhall in place of Gary Crowton. On the field, Smith is the biggest departing standout from a league not exactly known for its star power. The 2005 standings are expected to be balanced, with Utah recognized as the favorite and upstarts BYU & Wyoming potential contenders if everything goes right for each.
Utah
Play On: San Diego State 10/15
Utah is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS against the Aztecs, with the average winning margin being 19 points per game. The straight up winner of this series is 15-1 ATS. Look for the Utes to make it 16-1.
Play Against: @Colorado State 10/8
Distinct possibility Utah could still be undefeated and a slight road favorite, if that was the case. Utah is 2-5 ATS against the Rams the last seven years and last year’s 63-31 blowout was the most points surrendered in the Sonny Lubick era.
Colorado State
Play On: San Diego State 11/12
Rams return 17 starters after first losing season in a decade. Colorado State has had great success against S.D. State with a 7-2 record both SU and ATS against the Aztecs.
Play Against: Air Force 10/1
CSU has monster revenge game with Utah next week, which makes Air Force easy to overlook. The favorite is 4-10-1 against the number in the MWC contests and the Rams are 0-8-1 in league openers.
San Diego State
Play On: @Ohio State 9/17
The offensive minded Aztecs catch Ohio State at the perfect time. The Buckeyes will be off colossal match-up with Texas. Two years ago San Diego State gave Coach Tressel’s team all it could handle with a narrow 16-13 win as -30 home favorites.
Play Against: @Air Force 9/10
Despite this being a Mountain West Conference game, this falls into the sandwich situation for the Aztecs. S.D. State opens at home with the Pac-10’s UCLA Bruins and has Big 10(11) power Ohio State after this contest. Coach Craft’s team has a long history of failure in road openers, with a 0-12 record and dismal 4-8 ATS mark.
BYU
Play On: Air Force 10/29
BYU will be off possible loss at Notre Dame, will resume MWC play with the knowledge the winner of the contest is an incredible 17-1 ATS.
Play Against: @Wyoming 11/12
Cowboys appear to have best team since 1999 with 17 returning starters. Possible All-Conference QB Bramlett might have field day against Cougars. BYU is 8-2 vs. Wyoming, with the exact reverse record being true against the spread. (2-8)
Texas Christian
Play On: Utah 9/15
This ESPN Thursday special will be TCU’s first game as a Mountain West member. This excited home dog is 8-2 ATS against teams with a >.600 record.
Play Against: @Wyoming 10/8
TCU allowed 304 yards passing per game and will square off against pass happy Wyoming. Has the making of another long day for the Horned Frogs with their first trip to Laramie.
Wyoming
Play On: @Colorado State 10/22
This “Border War” has been played every year since 1946. The visitor has been unkind to the host with a 10-3 ATS record in this series.
Play Against: @Florida 9/3
Traveling to hot and humid Gainesville will be no treat for a team for Wyoming. Facing a coach like Urban Meyer who is familiar with your team only complicates the matter.
New Mexico
Play On: @San Diego State 10/22
Lobos are 9-1 ATS vs. San Diego State including four straight wins.
Play Against: @UTEP 9/24
After a rivalry game with New Mexico State, the Lobos face a tough trip to explosive Texas-El Paso. The Miners have too many weapons for Coach Long’s unusual 3-3-5 defense.
Air Force
Play On: Army 11/5
The home team is 15-0 ATS in this service academy match-up.
Play Against: Wyoming 9/17
The Falcons are below .500 with Coach DeBerry at the helm in Colorado Springs. With Air Force a possible field goal favorite at this time, look for the Cowboys to lasso the Falcons and pull the upset.
UNLV
Play On: Idaho 9/10
New Coach Sanford will only have 9 returning starters to work with. This will be the Rebels only home game in their first five games of the year. UNLV needs this one badly to excite the fans for the new coach.
Play Against: @New Mexico 9/3
New Mexico’s tricky defense and experienced offense will take down the Rebels in the opener for both teams. Speaking of opener’s, UNLV is 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS when hitting the road for the first time of a given season.
2005 MAC Preview
Conference realignment hit the Mid-American conference right where it hurts as perennial league power Marshall left for Conference USA. Fortunately, losing perhaps its most recognizable school comes at a time when the conference is at the height of its success in terms of football. The MAC placed a league record five teams in bowl games a year ago. Though only Bowling Green and Northern Illinois won their respective bowl contests, it was still a landmark achievement for the league. For 2005, there are only two established relationships with bowl games, but if things work out like last season, it’s perceivable that another three or four teams could receive bids, as Toledo, and Miami Ohio have the talent to join last year’s winning MAC bowl teams in the postseason. On a down note, the MAC went just 5-34 SU against teams from other 1-A conferences last season, poor by recent league standards.
There are a few key changes in the MAC this season that are worthy of note. The departure of Marshall, as well as Central Florida, left the league with 12 teams. While the MAC still qualifies to host a league title game with that number, the divisions did require some reshuffling. As such, Bowling Green now finds itself in the East Division where it should contend with Miami Ohio for supremacy. The Redhawks begin their first season under Shane Montgomery, as former Head Coach Terry Hoeppner left for the greener pastures of the Big Ten and Indiana. Elsewhere on the coaching front, Bill Cubit, a long time offensive coordinator with Western Michigan, returns there as head coach in 2005, and Ohio University hands its football program over to Frank Solich, the former embattled coach of Nebraska. Finally, on the playing field, most of the league’s defensive standouts from 2004 are gone, but the return of QB Omar Jacobs of Bowling Green, QB Bruce Gradkowski of Toledo, and RB Garrett Wolfe of Northern Illinois, should be more than enough to sustain the league’s star power.
East Division
Miami- Ohio
Play On: Buffalo 11/5
This veteran Miami-O squad is 18-5 ATS as a home conference favorite and 14-5 against the number off a 2-game road trip.
Play Against: @ Kent State 9/17
The Redhawks travel to Kent State with a big in-state rivalry game with Cincinnati on tap. The visitor in the MAC match-up is 1-6 ATS.
Bowling Green
Play On: Temple 10/1
The Falcons are 9-1 ATS off back-to-back road games. Bowling Green plans to give a hoot at homecoming against now independent Temple Owls.
Play Against: @ Miami-O 11/15
Bowling Green has not beaten the Redhawks since 1997. These Eastern Division rivals go at with a vengeance, with the Falcons 0-5 ATS.
Kent State
Play On: @ Michigan State 9/3
The Golden Flashes have 7 starters back on each side of the ball and are 8-1 against the spread when a 10-28 underdog.
Play Against: @ Western Michigan 10/29
Kent State has lost 11 consecutive times to the Broncos with a 3-7 ATS record.
Akron
Play On: Central Michigan 10/1
Akron off a probable loss is 6-1 ATS in the 2nd of back to back home contests.
Play Against: @ Kent State 11/23
The home team is 0-7 ATS in what will be the season finale for these MAC East teams.
Ohio U.
Play On: Pittsburgh 9/10
The Panthers will be off big home game with Notre Dame maybe unsettled coming into Athens. Ohio U. is 5-1 against the number with revenge on their minds.
Play Against: @ Bowling Green 10/8
The Bobcats visit Bowling Green armed with the knowledge that they are 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS vs. the Falcons.
Buffalo
Play On: Ohio U. 10/29
These evenly matched teams compete for the MAC basement, has Buffalo 4-1 ATS against Bobcats.
Play Against: @ Syracuse 9/10
Buffalo surely has a speed problem on artificial turf with a 1-18 SU record. The stronger, faster Orangemen squeeze the Bulls and win decisively.
West
Toledo
Play On: Northern Illinois 11/16
With this likely the battle for the MAC West crown, Toledo has had the Huskies number. The Rockets was won 11 straight and dominated NIU 9-1-1 ATS.
Play Against: @ Bowling Green 10/22
These top MAC teams conclude their regular season’s with this contest. The visitor takes it on the chin with a 0-7 ATS mark in this game.
Northern Illinois
Play On: Miami-O 10/5
NIU is 21-9 ATS in October and 11-4 vs. number the last three seasons at Husky Stadium.
Play Against: Toledo 11/16
Huskies are 1-16 all-time vs. Toledo and have covered once in 11 tries vs. the Falcons.
Eastern Michigan
Play On: @ Toledo 10/8
The Eagles are 7-2-1 ATS over last decade against Toledo, with the Rockets being favored by an average by 19 points.
Play Against: Miami-O 10/22
Eastern Michigan could be worn down after trips to Toledo and Northern Illinois. Another top level MAC team will be too much for the Eagles to handle.
Western Michigan
Play On: Kent State 10/29
The Broncos have won 10 straight against Kent State and hold a 7-3 ATS mark.
Play Against: @ Northern Illinois 11/22
The Huskies should have bowl implications for this game. Western Mich. is 2-13 ATS with revenge and 1-7 ATS vs. NIU.
Central Michigan
Play On: Ohio U. 10/15
This homecoming game has the home team at 5-1 ATS and the Chippewas are 7-1 vs. the spread off a non-conference game.
Play Against: @Penn State 9/17
This over-matched team is 3-11 ATS on the road in non-conference contests.
Ball State
Play On: Ohio U. 10/22
Ball State should be 0-6 coming into this game. With the Cardinals a probable road dog, against an equally bad Ohio U. squad, this might provide value since the visitor has covered 71% of the last seven games.
Play Against: @ Auburn 9/17
The Tigers can name the score in this home game. Ball State has only 9 seniors that could start. Auburn executes a 4th quarter cover in this SEC/ MAC match-up.
2005 Independents Preview
The number of schools playing as Independents climbs back up to four in 2005, matching the total of 2003 before Troy State and Connecticut began conference affiliation. Army and Temple are the latest programs to join the independent ranks, with the Black Knights leaving Conference USA and the Owls having departed the Big East. Neither team enjoyed the stay in its respective conference, so each will be looking for a fresh start in 2005. Perhaps independence is just what the doctor ordered for both. Meanwhile, Navy comes off its best season in decades having won 10 games, including a 34-19 Emerald Bowl decision over New Mexico. The Midshipmen may be headed for rebuilding though, as several of the stars of that team have been lost to graduation. Finally, in South Bend, a new era begins as Charlie Weis takes over for Tyrone Willingham after the Irish struggled to a 6-6 finish in 2004. The magic of Willingham’s first season in 2002 quickly wore off and he was ousted after just three short years. Notre Dame, and NBC for that matter, badly need for a quick turnaround for the nation’s most visible football program. As usual, the Irish do themselves no favors with a murderer’s row schedule. At the end of the season, it’s a strong possibility that not a single team of the four independents will be playing in a bowl game.
Notre Dame
Play On: Michigan State 9/17
This is the Irish’s first home game under new Coach Weis and should be revved up after two tough road games. With all 11 starters back on offense, Notre Dame should take out the Spartans in their only home game in the first five contests of 2005.
Play Against: Tennessee 11/5
Off last year’s upset in Knoxville, the highly ranked Vols will want to turn the tables on Notre Dame. The Irish are only 11-18 ATS in November.
Navy
Play On: @ Notre Dame 11/12
Navy has lost 41 consecutive games to Notre Dame. (NCAA record) The Midshipmen have sunk the Irish 11 of 15 times against the spread.
Play Against: neutral site- Maryland 9/3
With only two offensive starters back for Navy, that spells trouble against the fast starting Terps. The neutral site decreases value towards the Midshipmen.
Temple
Play On: @ Wisconsin 9/10
With forced upon independent status for Temple, the Owls travel to Madison. Temple is 12-4 ATS off a presumed loss and 21-12-1 ATS under Co. Wallace.
Play Against: Toledo 9/17
The Rockets can explode with points on the scoreboard. Temple is 1-9 ATS against MAC schools.
Army
Play On: Cent. Michigan 10/8
This is the most winnable game to start the new era of Independence for the Cadets. The Black Knights are 10-4 SU and 8-3 ATS against the MAC.
Play Against: @ Air Force 11/5
The visitor is 6-15 ATS in this service academy contest. Army is an awful 1-15 against the number off a bye.
2005 Pac 10 Preview
Any talk of the Pac 10 in recent years has to start with the tremendous accomplishments by USC. Three straight conference titles, three straight BCS Bowl victories, and of course, back-to-back national titles. In fact, in 2005, the Trojans will try to become the first team ever to win three straight national championships. Clearly, every other storyline in the Pac 10 takes a backseat to that chase this season. Elsewhere, Arizona State appears to be the only other team with a reasonable chance of unseating USC in conference play. The Sun Devils come off a Sun Bowl winning season and boast one of the most potent offensive attacks in the league. California, Oregon, and UCLA are the three other returning bowl teams from 2004 but each sits a notch below USC in terms of talent and questions heading into the season. On an individual front, several key Pac 10 players are vying for various honors this season, including QB Matt Leinart and RB Reggie Bush of USC, WR Derek Hagan of Arizona State, and the UCLA duo of QB Drew Olsen and RB Maurice Drew.
The Pac 10 was one of the few conferences left unchanged by realignment so everything should remain status quo for 2005. The only minor changes to note are on the coaching front and in instant replay usage, as the league has decided to use instant replay on an experimental basis this season. As far as coaching changes are concerned, two new high profile names will be manning the sidelines in Pac 10 games in 2005 as Walt Harris takes over at Pittsburgh and Tyrone Willingham assumes the controls at Washington. The conference again has relationships with six bowl games but could place as many as seven teams in the postseason if the stars align.
Southern California
Play On: @ California 11/12
USC has had a few problems with Cal over the last couple of years; however the Bears return just 8 starters and have lost all the top playmakers. The visitor is 7-2 against the spread and Coach Carroll’s Trojans are 11-2 ATS in November.
Play Against: @ Arizona State 10/1
This will be a much anticipated shootout in the desert, with the visitor in this big Pac-10 game 3-7 ATS.
California
Play On: Illinois 9/17
After Pac-10 opener, Cal faces an Illinois team in transition under Co. Ron Zook. Anytime you can beat a Big 10(11) team if you’re from the West Coast, that is of note and the Bears are 6-1 home off an away game.
Play Against: @ Oregon 11/5
Eugene is always a tough place to win, especially if your California, who is 2-8 SU and against the spread.
Oregon
Play On: Oregon State 11/18
The Ducks will be quacking in this case as the home team is 7-1 ATS.
Play Against: @ Stanford 10/1
With a home game with USC the week prior and a trip to Arizona State to follow; this is a “classic sandwich” situation. This trip to ‘The Farm’ will be unpleasant for Oregon.
Arizona State
Play On: Temple 9/1
ASU is hoping for a big season and it starts with newly adorned independent Temple. The Sun Devils are 9-3 ATS in non-conference home games over the last dozen.
Play Against: @ Oregon State 9/24
The Sun Devils are in a look ahead situation with USC coming to Tempe. The visitor in this Pac-10 contest is 0-7 ATS. ASU is 4-12 ATS in conference road openers.
UCLA
Play On: Washington 10/1
UCLA is 7-1 and 7-0-1 against the number vs. these passive Huskies.
Play Against: @ Washington State 10/15
The Bruins visiting Pullman has not been good for UCLA. The Cougars are 8-3 SU and ATS at home against Coach Dorrell’s team.
Oregon State
Play On: Arizona 10/29
The favorite is a terrific 8-1 ATS in this Pac-10 match-up. The Beavers are always eager at Corvallis with a 20-6 against the spread record the last seven years.
Play Against: @ Louisville 9/17
OSU returns 13 starters, unfortunately the attrition cost them many playmakers on both sides of the ball. With Louisville favored to be the Big East champions, knocking off a Pac-10 team would be a treat. The Beavers are 3-7 ATS on road openers the last decade.
Washington
Play On: Oregon State 11/5
New coach Tyrone Willingham returns to Pac-10 country armed with 19 starters back. The Huskies off a dismal year, are 7-3 ATS in November recently.
Play Against: @ UCLA 10/1
Most dogs like grass, but these Huskies are 2-12 ATS on the real stuff. UCLA has mastered Washington with a 7-0-1 ATS mark.
Washington State
Play On: @ Nevada 9/9
The Cougars like to start fast with an 8-3 against the spread record in road openers since 1994.
Play Against: @ California 10/1
The visitor is an ugly 2-11 ATS in this Pacific-10 series.
Arizona
Play On: @ Arizona State 11/25
This duel in the desert rivalry has the visitor posting a 10-3 ATS record.
Play Against: Washington 11/12
Arizona is 2-10 ATS before playing Arizona State and 1-10 vs. the spread in their final home game.
Stanford
Play On: @Washington State 10/8
Stanford loves those burgundy and grey uniforms of Washington State. The Cardinal is 11-2 ATS against Wazzou, including 5-0 at Pullman.
Play Against: Notre Dame 11/26
Now having to play the Irish after the big game with California, leaves the emotional tank dry. The Cardinal is 2-8 ATS vs. Notre Dame.
2005 Big East Preview
The Big East Conference was righteously maligned for most of the 2004 season as no team in the league distanced itself enough to be considered worthy of the conference’s automatic BCS Bowl spot. Pittsburgh eventually claimed the reward by virtue of a four-team tiebreaker, but was then blasted by Utah in the Fiesta Bowl. West Virginia was generally regarded as the league’s best team, but the Mountaineers were upset in their final two regular season games to fall out of the championship picture. Of the other five teams, Syracuse and Boston College also managed to split the Big East title at 4-2. Obviously, with the prior year’s departure of perennial powers Miami and Virginia Tech, there were telltale signs that this conference could be in for a tough season. For 2005, the league takes another hit as realignment continues with Boston College leaving for the ACC. On a good note, despite being the country’s smallest conference, it still placed a respectable five teams in bowl games. Of those, Connecticut and BC were the only teams to record wins.
Over the course of the last two years, realignment has left the Big East conference as barely recognizable. Most of the traditional powers are gone, with just Pittsburgh, Syracuse and West Virginia having any history in this league to boast of. That’s not to say that the league is at its lowest point though, as the addition of Louisville, combined with the loss of Temple, probably cemented that honor for 2004. The Cardinals, who scored nearly 50 PPG last season, are expected to be major factor immediately, as many publications, including the ******* Edge, actually pick them as the favorites. Fellow newcomers South Florida and Cincinnati might also enjoy some success, but probably not nearly as much, nor as early, as Louisville. Among the other expected contenders this year are Pittsburgh, which begins its first season under Dave Wannstedt, and Syracuse, who also turns to a former pro coach, Greg Robinson. Whomever it turns out to be representing the finally stabilized Big East in the BCS, conference officials can rest easier, knowing the worst is probably behind them.
Louisville
Play On: @Cincinnati 10/22
Both Louisville and Cincinnati join the Big East after departing C-USA. With the Cardinals probably being a high single digit road favorite, we’ll side with the fact that the favorite is 7-1 ATS in this series.
Play Against: Pittsburgh 11/3
This Thursday match-up could pose problems for Louisville. The physical style that Pittsburgh likes to employ could cause the Redbirds trouble. Louisville should be a touchdown or more favorite, in what could be a game for the Big East crown. Expect a tight ballgame with a winner being determined late.
Pittsburgh
Play On: @West Virginia 11/24
In the “Backyard Brawl” the visitor is 12-5 70.5%. Panthers made need this one to wrap up BCS bid for 2nd straight year.
Play Against: @Ohio U. 9/17
Difficult “sandwich” situation for Pittsburgh. Playing Notre Dame in the opener and having a roadie at Nebraska after this game, a good sized double digit favorite may not have on its game face in Athens, Ohio.
Rutgers
Play On: West Virginia 10/6
Scarlet Knights grabbed the cash as two touchdown HD last year in losing 35-30. Rutgers is improved and the Mountaineers will be very young. The home team has covered 11 of 14 times in this Big East contest.
Play Against: @Syracuse 10/15
Rutgers Knights turn into jackals when facing those dreaded orange jerseys. Rutgers is
2-16 SU and 4-14 ATS vs. the Orangemen.
West Virginia
Play On: East Carolina 9/24
After an always difficult contest with Maryland, the Mountaineers can gear up for an easy winner against ECU in Morgantown. West Virginia can take comfort in the fact that they are 10-0 vs. the Pirates at home and covering 71.4% of the time.
Play Against: @Maryland 9/17
Every team has a nemesis and this is the one that confounds West Virginia. The Mountaineers escaped in overtime last year 19-16, yet did not cover as 6-point favorites.
With UWV 0-5 ATS against the Terrapins, we’ll go against the Mountaineers one more time.
Syracuse
Play On: West Virginia 9/3
The Orangemen return 16 starters and will have a great deal of excitement building around new Coach Robinson. UWV is young and will be seeking an identity. With Syracuse a probable 4-5 point home favorite, take solace in the knowledge that the favorite is 13-3-1 with these long time rivals.
Play Against: @Florida State 10/1
As venerable announcer Keith Jackson would say “Whoa Nelly!” Tallahassee is not the place to make your road debut as a college coach. Syracuse is 9-21 ATS as an away dog.
Connecticut
Play On: @West Virginia 11/2
The Huskies are hungry for more TV exposure and this weekday tilt will satisfy that desire. UConn is 9-2 ATS as double digits dogs and 10-2-1 against the number in November.
Play Against: @Georgia Tech 9/17
Games with Buffalo and Liberty will not prepare UConn for Georgia Tech. A new QB for the Huskies will face a major road test, as they lost here 30-10 last year with outstanding quarterback Dan Orlovsky.
South Florida
Play On: Cincinnati 11/19
South Florida has a great advantage playing in the heat of November against a northern tier team. With the Bulls hurry-up offense, this should be too much for the Bearcats to keep up with in Tampa.
Play Against: @Pittsburgh 10/15
After playing both Louisville and Miami., the physical nature of Pittsburgh will take its toll on these worn-out Bulls.
Cincinnati
Play On: Connecticut: 11/15
With only six returning starters back for the Bearcats, slim pickings to post on the left side of the ledger. This becomes a must win contest for Cincy as single digit favs.
Play Against: @Miami-Ohio 9/28
Last year’s Bearcat blow-out was a rare occurrence for these in-state rivals. The loaded Redhawks will be ready to swoop in and seek revenge for last year’s 19-point pasting.
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