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In this final installment of the opening weekend of
NCAA Football, I will look at two more games on the
board. Again, these are not yet official Member Plays
but games that I have looked into and have made the
short list of possibilities for the first week of
action.
Saturday, September 3rd
Kansas-23 vs Florida Atlantic, Total of 42
Howard Schnellenberger was the man that brought Miami,
FL and Louisville's football programs into top-tier
status. His recruiting and creative offensive schemes
were the model that many other programs copied. Now
Howard takes on a much larger task in bringing FAU
into full time Division1A status and Sun Belt
Conference play. Last year's team was exceptional in a
part time role as a D1 team, going to Hawaii in the
season opener and beating the Rainbows on their very
strong home field and following that up by going to
North Texas and beating them as well. Damn impressive
if you ask me, especially if you consider that UH and
NTSU couldn't be more different as far as offensive
philosophy. In fact, FAU played their first FIVE games
of 2004 on the road and WON THEM ALL, finishing the
year 9-3. Unfortunately, most of that team is gone
with only four starters on either side of the ball
returning. Making matters worse is that now FAU is
playing a far more difficult schedule having moved
into full time D1 play. The roadies will be tough, as
they plat at Kansas, Minnesota and Louisville in
non-conference play and get Oklahoma State at home
along with the Sun Belt schedule.
In 2003, Kansas coach Mark Mangino took the Jayhawks
to a bowl game for the first time in forever... and
what was once a doormat program and an afterthought on
campus to basketball has been revitalized. They
started last year by outscoring their first two
opponents 84-17, blowing out Tulsa and Toledo at home
and looked to be headed to a second straight bowl
appearance. Unfortunately, the wheels came off and the
Jayhawks only won 1 of their next eight games,
finishing 4-7 in the Big 12 North. They did manage to
cut down the defensive yards allowed per game by 70
ypg. However, they really fell of the earth
offensively, losing 82 spots from 2003. This year
looks promising, however with eight defensive starters
returning off the much improved squad of last year.
The offense has seven starters back and should improve
substantially over last year. Kansas has the benefit
of playing their first three games at home and play
only four roadies all year. Unfortunately, the four
are at Texas Tech, Kansas State, Colorado and Texas.
What I see here is a team stepping up in class in FAU,
playing it's opener on the road after dealing with
adverse weather conditions in Florida with the
hurricanes cutting practice and preparation time,
while trying to break in a 70% changeover in the
lineup. A good start in mandatory for Kansas with a
tough conference schedule if they wish to get back to
a bowl game. Kansas has more talent at most every
position and will a larger, faster squad. Too much for
an upstart program to overcome in Florida Atlantic as
they should learn how different D1A really is. Kansas
42, FAU 13.
Florida -22 vs. Wyoming, Total of 58.5
The Gators finally put the dagger in the Ron Zook era,
pleasing all the visitors to the website
"FireRonZook.com" that was started about ten minutes
after he was hired. Following Steve Spurrier is
difficult at best, but Zook's teams underperformed
with good talent and he left with an unsatisfactory
history at a program that alumni and fans expect to
compete for a National Championship every year. Now,
Urban Meyer brings his spread offense to Gainesville
and while everyone thinks it is an aerial circus,
Meyer's Utah teams actually ran the ball almost 63% of
the time. It is in the way that the QB is asked to
read to defense that creates the way the play develops
with most calls made at the line of scrimmage. It
helps to have a QB that can take hits and Alex Smith
was perfect at 6'4" and 225 pounds. If Florida will
have a problem in this offense, it is that Chris Leak
is a smaller frame and may not stand up to the
pounding that the position can require. He can do
great things with the football, both in the air and on
the ground. The Gators have a RB, DeShawn Wynn, who
was stuck in purgatory for a while behind Ciatrick
Fason, who is now in the NFL. Fason got hurt last year
and Wynn did sniff the field but was largely
ineffective in his spot due to his weight and lack of
desire. Wynn was generally recognized as a great
talent who had poor work ethics and carried too much
weight. After Meyer arrived on campus, he has pushed
Wynn to be the player that everyone thought he could
be. He is leaner, quicker and has been lights out in
spring and fall practices. He will be the man behind
Leak and the guy who can make this spread offense go.
Leak was terrific in the spring game going 14 of 20
with four TD's and all indications are that he has
picked up the offense very well. It is important for
the Gators to be settled at the RB/TB position because
the spread requires the backs to be able to catch the
ball out of the backfield. Florida has solid
upperclassmen at the WR position starting with Chad
Jackson, who is Leak's "go-to" guy, and are solid
along the offensive line. The defense has a shutdown
corner in Dee Webb but is unsettled on the other side.
The projected starter is Vernell Brown, who is only
5'8" and 165... not a good situation against the tall
athletes in the SEC.
Wyoming comes into the season fresh off an upset of
UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl and a 7-5 record in the
Mountain West Conference. Amazingly, this high powered
offense only outscored opponents by 21 points on the
season and were actually outscored in conference play.
The defense did improve 34 spots nationally from
previous years, speaking more for the poor play in
previous years. They do return eight starters and
should be better this year as well. The spread offense
will not be a surprise to the Cowboys as they faced
Meyer's Utah squad in conference play. What will
surprise them is the athletic abilty and team speed in
the SEC over the MWC. The strength of the defense is
the secondary, but they rarely face speed and talent
like Florida's. Corey Bramlett is back at QB and is a
skilled passer that was terrific in HC Joe Glenn's
offense. He is one of nine returnees on that side of
the football and has an outstanding WR in Jovon
Bouknight, who is 3rd in the country among active
receivers all time in career yards and fourth in
receptions. This Cowboy team has designs on taking
over the conference title from Utah, who lost much of
the offense and all of the coaching staff. Wyoming
has fared poorly vs. the SEC in the past, going 1-8 SU
with the only win at home vs. a subpar Ole Miss team
last year. This team can score and move the football,
but have some questions at RB with the top two backs
coming off knee surgery in the off season.
It looks as though two talented offenses will move the
football and put points on the board, enough to go
over this relatively low total. I am looking at a game
that forces Wyoming to play from behind and possibly
abandon the running game if Florida shuts it down.
Passing stops the clock and moves the chains on both
sides and we will call for a final score of Florida
41, Wyoming 23 pushing this game OVER the total of
58.5 points. I have no play on the side currently so
the score is not a prediction of a Wyoming cover.
NCAA Coaches Records Against the Spread in Early Play
(First Four Games ATS)
The Good:
Pat Hill/Fresno State (15-5) 75%
Frank Beamer/VT (17-6) 74%
Randy Edsall/UConn (12-5) 71%
Dan McCarney/Iowa State (14-6) 70%
JimLeavitt/South Florida (8-4) 67%
Joe Novak/No. Illinois (12-6) 67%
Tom Amstutz/Toledo (9-5) 65%
Bottom Feeders
Barry Alvarez/Wisconsin (7-16)
I hope this information helps in your decision making
process. These plays may or may not make the final cut
for Week 1 Member Plays... I will have the first set
of plays emailed by Thursday, September 1st at 1pm PDT
to all paid subscribers. Until then, have a great week
and let's keep this solid start rolling. Thanks for
reading!
NCAA Football, I will look at two more games on the
board. Again, these are not yet official Member Plays
but games that I have looked into and have made the
short list of possibilities for the first week of
action.
Saturday, September 3rd
Kansas-23 vs Florida Atlantic, Total of 42
Howard Schnellenberger was the man that brought Miami,
FL and Louisville's football programs into top-tier
status. His recruiting and creative offensive schemes
were the model that many other programs copied. Now
Howard takes on a much larger task in bringing FAU
into full time Division1A status and Sun Belt
Conference play. Last year's team was exceptional in a
part time role as a D1 team, going to Hawaii in the
season opener and beating the Rainbows on their very
strong home field and following that up by going to
North Texas and beating them as well. Damn impressive
if you ask me, especially if you consider that UH and
NTSU couldn't be more different as far as offensive
philosophy. In fact, FAU played their first FIVE games
of 2004 on the road and WON THEM ALL, finishing the
year 9-3. Unfortunately, most of that team is gone
with only four starters on either side of the ball
returning. Making matters worse is that now FAU is
playing a far more difficult schedule having moved
into full time D1 play. The roadies will be tough, as
they plat at Kansas, Minnesota and Louisville in
non-conference play and get Oklahoma State at home
along with the Sun Belt schedule.
In 2003, Kansas coach Mark Mangino took the Jayhawks
to a bowl game for the first time in forever... and
what was once a doormat program and an afterthought on
campus to basketball has been revitalized. They
started last year by outscoring their first two
opponents 84-17, blowing out Tulsa and Toledo at home
and looked to be headed to a second straight bowl
appearance. Unfortunately, the wheels came off and the
Jayhawks only won 1 of their next eight games,
finishing 4-7 in the Big 12 North. They did manage to
cut down the defensive yards allowed per game by 70
ypg. However, they really fell of the earth
offensively, losing 82 spots from 2003. This year
looks promising, however with eight defensive starters
returning off the much improved squad of last year.
The offense has seven starters back and should improve
substantially over last year. Kansas has the benefit
of playing their first three games at home and play
only four roadies all year. Unfortunately, the four
are at Texas Tech, Kansas State, Colorado and Texas.
What I see here is a team stepping up in class in FAU,
playing it's opener on the road after dealing with
adverse weather conditions in Florida with the
hurricanes cutting practice and preparation time,
while trying to break in a 70% changeover in the
lineup. A good start in mandatory for Kansas with a
tough conference schedule if they wish to get back to
a bowl game. Kansas has more talent at most every
position and will a larger, faster squad. Too much for
an upstart program to overcome in Florida Atlantic as
they should learn how different D1A really is. Kansas
42, FAU 13.
Florida -22 vs. Wyoming, Total of 58.5
The Gators finally put the dagger in the Ron Zook era,
pleasing all the visitors to the website
"FireRonZook.com" that was started about ten minutes
after he was hired. Following Steve Spurrier is
difficult at best, but Zook's teams underperformed
with good talent and he left with an unsatisfactory
history at a program that alumni and fans expect to
compete for a National Championship every year. Now,
Urban Meyer brings his spread offense to Gainesville
and while everyone thinks it is an aerial circus,
Meyer's Utah teams actually ran the ball almost 63% of
the time. It is in the way that the QB is asked to
read to defense that creates the way the play develops
with most calls made at the line of scrimmage. It
helps to have a QB that can take hits and Alex Smith
was perfect at 6'4" and 225 pounds. If Florida will
have a problem in this offense, it is that Chris Leak
is a smaller frame and may not stand up to the
pounding that the position can require. He can do
great things with the football, both in the air and on
the ground. The Gators have a RB, DeShawn Wynn, who
was stuck in purgatory for a while behind Ciatrick
Fason, who is now in the NFL. Fason got hurt last year
and Wynn did sniff the field but was largely
ineffective in his spot due to his weight and lack of
desire. Wynn was generally recognized as a great
talent who had poor work ethics and carried too much
weight. After Meyer arrived on campus, he has pushed
Wynn to be the player that everyone thought he could
be. He is leaner, quicker and has been lights out in
spring and fall practices. He will be the man behind
Leak and the guy who can make this spread offense go.
Leak was terrific in the spring game going 14 of 20
with four TD's and all indications are that he has
picked up the offense very well. It is important for
the Gators to be settled at the RB/TB position because
the spread requires the backs to be able to catch the
ball out of the backfield. Florida has solid
upperclassmen at the WR position starting with Chad
Jackson, who is Leak's "go-to" guy, and are solid
along the offensive line. The defense has a shutdown
corner in Dee Webb but is unsettled on the other side.
The projected starter is Vernell Brown, who is only
5'8" and 165... not a good situation against the tall
athletes in the SEC.
Wyoming comes into the season fresh off an upset of
UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl and a 7-5 record in the
Mountain West Conference. Amazingly, this high powered
offense only outscored opponents by 21 points on the
season and were actually outscored in conference play.
The defense did improve 34 spots nationally from
previous years, speaking more for the poor play in
previous years. They do return eight starters and
should be better this year as well. The spread offense
will not be a surprise to the Cowboys as they faced
Meyer's Utah squad in conference play. What will
surprise them is the athletic abilty and team speed in
the SEC over the MWC. The strength of the defense is
the secondary, but they rarely face speed and talent
like Florida's. Corey Bramlett is back at QB and is a
skilled passer that was terrific in HC Joe Glenn's
offense. He is one of nine returnees on that side of
the football and has an outstanding WR in Jovon
Bouknight, who is 3rd in the country among active
receivers all time in career yards and fourth in
receptions. This Cowboy team has designs on taking
over the conference title from Utah, who lost much of
the offense and all of the coaching staff. Wyoming
has fared poorly vs. the SEC in the past, going 1-8 SU
with the only win at home vs. a subpar Ole Miss team
last year. This team can score and move the football,
but have some questions at RB with the top two backs
coming off knee surgery in the off season.
It looks as though two talented offenses will move the
football and put points on the board, enough to go
over this relatively low total. I am looking at a game
that forces Wyoming to play from behind and possibly
abandon the running game if Florida shuts it down.
Passing stops the clock and moves the chains on both
sides and we will call for a final score of Florida
41, Wyoming 23 pushing this game OVER the total of
58.5 points. I have no play on the side currently so
the score is not a prediction of a Wyoming cover.
NCAA Coaches Records Against the Spread in Early Play
(First Four Games ATS)
The Good:
Pat Hill/Fresno State (15-5) 75%
Frank Beamer/VT (17-6) 74%
Randy Edsall/UConn (12-5) 71%
Dan McCarney/Iowa State (14-6) 70%
JimLeavitt/South Florida (8-4) 67%
Joe Novak/No. Illinois (12-6) 67%
Tom Amstutz/Toledo (9-5) 65%
Bottom Feeders
Barry Alvarez/Wisconsin (7-16)
I hope this information helps in your decision making
process. These plays may or may not make the final cut
for Week 1 Member Plays... I will have the first set
of plays emailed by Thursday, September 1st at 1pm PDT
to all paid subscribers. Until then, have a great week
and let's keep this solid start rolling. Thanks for
reading!