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Nflx Week 2 Review

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  • Nflx Week 2 Review

    NFLX WEEK 2 REVIEW

    There was triumph and tragedy in the 2nd week of the NFL exhibition season. After a slow start with the Thursday/Friday games, we got back on track over the weekend. The preseason lines get a little sharper each year, moving quicker than ever as information gets spread almost instantly in this information age. Sometimes, the lines move too far, creating value on the other side, which we have seen and taken advantage of several times already in the past couple of weeks. Last Saturday night’s game between Carolina and the Giants is a classic example. New York opened as a small favorite at home, which made the Panthers worth a look, as they were on a NINE-game winning streak in practice games. They were also 4-0 SU & ATS in their most recent meetings with the G-men, making them a tantalizing underdog. Evidently, nearly everyone with a dollar to bet thought so, too, and the money poured in on Carolina. Friday night, PRO INFO SPORTS released the Giants as a 1 STAR SELECTION, as by then the line had moved to make them a 2-point underdog. By kick-off, they were a 3-point home dog. Eli Manning completed only 3 passes; however, 2 were for TDs and New York snapped Carolina’s preseason win streak with a SU victory at the Meadowlands.

    Our highest-rated play on Saturday was a 3 STAR SELECTION on San Francisco (+7) at Denver. In the analysis sent to our clients, we thought it would be the 49ers QB rotation that would ultimately decide the outcome:

    …Broncos’ QBs Jake Plummer, Bradlee Van Pelt, and Matt Mauck played reasonably well last week, but Denver simply does not have depth at the position like they used to. While San Francisco will counter with a rookie starter in Alex Smith, they have much better depth to finish the game and ultimately decide the outcome. Smith was shaky in his first pro start, hitting on just 3-of-9 passing for 25 yards, but it’s natural a rookie would be nervous in his first NFL start. He should settle down and play better this week. His forgotten successors in the lineup, Tim Rattay and Ken Dorsey, played very well last week, and have NFL regular season starting experience. The Bronco back-ups have barely seen the field in the preseason…Mike Nolan has brought a fresh, new attitude to San Francisco and the team is playing hard for him. They may lose the battle in the first half, but should win the spread war in the end at this price...

    It was close, but San Fran’s back-up QBs were the difference indeed. Rattay drove the team for a couple of scores, and it was actually 4th-string QB, Cody Pickett, who scrambled 28 yards for the spread-winning score with just 2 seconds left on the clock.

    The joy of that exciting win was short-lived, however, as we watched the post-game coverage via satellite. The talk of scores, yards, and penalties was quickly over-shadowed by the grim news that 49er Thomas Herrion had collapsed in the locker room shortly after the game. They were giving him CPR and pumping his chest as they took him away from Invesco Field in an ambulance. He was never revived. He was only 23 years old and living out his dream of playing in the NFL. Such tragedies have a way of putting things in perspective and reminding us how precious life is.

    Now, the grieving 49ers have a short week, as they prepare to host the Titans. We are somewhat surprised that the game will be played as scheduled, as we thought it might be delayed a couple of days, if not cancelled altogether. Coach Mike Nolan thinks the best way to get his team through this ordeal is to get back on the field, which his team will do, but it’s hard to imagine them having much motivation for an exhibition game less than a week after witnessing the death of a teammate.

    Herrion had also played for the Cowboys, who took the field on Monday in Seattle. We saw this game as a classic preseason situation that strongly favored the visitors, as we made Dallas (+3) a 2½ STAR SELECTION:

    ...Coaching is normally the biggest factor in our preseason handicapping. We take a close look at how teams in general, and coaches in specific, do after a lackluster loss and/or an impressive victory. Generally, a win in the preseason allows a coach to feel zero pressure the following week, and he can look at players. A loss, on the other hand, may mean negative press and questions at training camp. This often leads to a coach going for a win the following week, or at least a much stronger performance. Generally, teams are better ATS after a loss and weaker after a win. Parcells has been very consistent in how he deals with losing. He wins. His 4 teams are a combined 12-2 ATS off an exhibition SU loss, and we note that Dallas is 6-1 ATS as an underdog of more than 2 points. Meanwhile, we note that Seattle is a poor 1-6 ATS vs. sub-.500% foes…The Saints practically handed the game to Seattle last week, turning the ball over 3 times early. Off that easy victory, we expect a letdown from the home team here, especially against an opponent that should be much sharper and more focused off their loss, as we like Dallas and the points...

    Dallas certainly looked like the more motivated and focused team. Penalties alone show who was the sharper team, as the Cowboys drew flags 4 times for 35 yards, while Seattle was penalized 12 times for over 100 yards.

    As we look ahead to Week 3, we see some situations that have great potential for profitability, and we expect to have our best week yet, as we look to match last year’s NFLX season when we finished +55 UNITS!

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