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2005 Conference USA East Preview
Conference USA went through the most changes of any conference in the country as it lost five teams but got six in return from the WAC and MAC. It also now has two divisions and will play a championship game, which seems to be the new fad in college football. The East Division will be the strongest as it has the most holdovers from the old conference and also has the best team with Southern Miss. There won’t be a ton of parity in the East because after Southern Miss, UAB and Memphis, the other three teams are in serious rebuilding mode.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Fargo’s Take With Louisville out of the mix and the conference splitting into two divisions, the Golden Eagles get the early nod in the East. Defense has always been the strength of this team but the offense showed some very positive signs last season and should improve. Southern Miss hasn’t had a losing season in 12 years and there is no reason for that string to end in 2005.
Returning Starters on Offense – 6 Injuries hurt the unit last season but a healthy Dustin Almond at quarterback will give this team a great shot at being productive. There is also a new offensive coordinator in Hattiesburg so the passing game that ranked 89th nationally last year should be more potent. The running game will be solid with a quality fullback and a blazer at tailback. The offensive line is young but there is experience there.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense allowed 24.8 ppg last season which is unheard of as is the 175.1 ypg allowed on the ground. This year, there are 10 juniors and seniors who will be starting so the defense has a great chance at becoming dominant once again. The Golden Eagles will have one of the best defensive lines and secondaries in the conference with the linebackers being the weak spot.
Schedule Southern Miss jumps right into conference action as it hosts an improving Tulane squad and then must make a trip to Alabama. Following that are five straight games that should be won but then the schedule gets really tough with trips to UAB and NC State in consecutive weeks. The season finale against Memphis could decide who the champion of the East will be.
Keep an eye on… The first game is at home but it is against an improved team from Tulane so the Golden Eagles cannot be looking ahead to Alabama. Southern Miss is 7-2 ATS in its last nine CUSA openers including a 6-1 ATS mark as a favorite. Tulane is just 18-29 ATS as a road dog within the conference and the road team is 3-7 ATS in this series.
UAB Blazers
Fargo’s Take The Blazers have the best chance of winning the East over Southern Miss and the biggest factor could be that they host the Golden Eagles. UAB is coming off its first ever bowl appearance and with 15 starters coming back, a second straight postseason trip should occur. This is going to be a fun team to watch on offense but it’s the defense that will determine how far it goes.
Returning Starters on Offense – 8 The Blazers have one of the most explosive quarterbacks in the conference in Darrell Hackney and even though All-Conference receiver Roddy White is gone, he will have plenty to throw to. The running game is solid and should flourish behind one of the biggest and best offensive lines in CUSA. The offense averaged 31 ppg last year and those numbers can go up even more in 2005.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 This is a fairly veteran group coming back but there are huge holes to fill at the linebacker position. Up front, the Blazers should once again be able to stop the run as three of four starters return. The secondary is experienced but UAB finished 111th in passing defense in 2004, allowing 270 ypg and an abysmal 60.1 percent completions.
Schedule The opener at Tennessee will be a good test of how close this team is to greatness and after that, there isn’t much in its way for the next five games. Then comes the showdown against Southern Miss that will give the winner an early jump on the division title. Games at Memphis and UTEP follow in two of the next three weeks so the bottom half of the slate is going to be a challenge.
Keep an eye on… The Blazers are likely going to be double digit favorites in three games following Tennessee and they are just 2-6 ATS in that role the past two seasons. The most surprising is that they have lost four of those games outright with the average line differential a whopping 29 ppg. The offense will most likely get them the wins but the defense will be keeping the backdoor open.
Memphis Tigers
Fargo’s Take The Tigers have gone to a bowl game the past two seasons, the first time that has ever happened in school history. Going back for a third consecutive season won’t be a piece of cake but it certainly isn’t impossible. The defense needs to strengthen itself and a new quarterback will need to step in right away so the early part of the season could have its difficulties.
Returning Starters on Offense – 4 The graduation of four-year starter Danny Wimprine will no doubt hurt the offense that ranked 9th in total offense and 10th in scoring defense last year. The scoring output has improved in each of the past three years but that will come to an end this season. The fact that running back DeAngelo Williams came back for his senior season will at least give it some life early on.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 This is where dramatic improvements will need to take place in order for 2005 to be a successful season. The defense is getting a lot of starters back but the unit finished last season 90th in both scoring defense and total defense. The secondary is thin and the front line has question marks but the linebackers are the best in the conference and will likely have to carry the entire unit.
Schedule Three of the first four games are at home which is a big bonus for a new offense while the only road game in that mix is at Tulsa which certainly is a winnable game. Four of the next six games are on the road including back-to-back Saturday trips to Tennessee and Southern Miss. The season finale against Marshall could decide if the Tigers go bowling or not.
Keep an eye on… The game at Tulsa will be the first road game of the year and it will be a challenge for the young offense. Memphis is 9-16 ATS in its last 25 road games including a 3-7 ATS mark as a favorite. To make matters worse, the Tigers are just 8-15 as a favorite within the conference losing 11 of those games straight up.
Marshall Thundering Herd
Fargo’s Take The battle for 4th place in the division starts with newcomer Marshall who left the MAC for greener pastures. However, it’s going to be a not so smooth transition as this is a very young team with a brand new head coach to top it off. This was definitely the right move for the Herd as there will be a lot more exposure and in a couple years, they will be back on top.
Returning Starters on Offense – 3 Talk about rebuilding. The Herd are replacing nearly every skill position and three-fifths of the offensive line. The quarterback position is still up for grabs while the receivers are very young and very inexperienced. The only positive on this unit is tailback Ahmad Bradshaw who showed signed of brilliance as a freshman last season but after that, it’s all a big jumble.
Returning Starters on Defense – 3 The entire front seven will be new and that will hurt early on since Marshall was 19th in the country against the run last season. The strength is the secondary where three of the four starters return and they will be one of the best in the conference. There will be some great passing teams in CUSA so having a strong defensive backfield is key. But it won’t be able to carry the entire load.
Schedule The first game is a home date with William & Mary and that will be a very good tune-up before revenge minded Kansas St. comes to visit the following weekend. Two relatively easy conference games follow before a trip to Virginia Tech ends the non-conference portion of the schedule. Southern Miss and UAB come to visit while the Herd travel to UTEP and Memphis so there is no advantage either way.
Keep an eye on… The game against Kansas St. is an interesting match up since it’s the first true test of the season against a team looking for some revenge. Marshall has played the BCS conferences tough recently losing to Ohio St., Georgia and Tennessee the last two seasons by a combined 23 points while defeating the Wildcats in 2003. Marshall is 53-3 at home since 1996 so who knows.
East Carolina Pirates
Fargo’s Take The next stop on the rebuilding train stops in Greenville as East Carolina is looking to start fresh once again with a new head coach. The Pirates bring a lot back to the table but they have won just three games the past two seasons and haven’t been to a bowl game since 2001. Skip Holtz has a lot of work to do but the good news is that things can’t get much worse.
Returning Starters on Offense – 8 The best news for the offense is that quarterback James Pinkney has been granted academic approval and will be competing for the starting job. He will likely get it since he started all 11 games last season and had a decent year. The running game should be ok as Chris Johnson returns and he will be running behind a big and experienced offensive line.
Returning Starters on Defense – 9 This is where the trouble really lies as the Pirates ranked 115th in scoring defense, 114th in rushing defense and 111th in total defense in 2004. The passing defense was good only because teams didn’t have to throw on them. There will be many different looks this season that will be positioned around a very strong group of linebackers.
Schedule The Pirates don’t face the toughest of non-conference teams to the average team but East Carolina is no average team. They host Duke before heading out on the road two weeks later to Wake Forest and West Virginia. The conference schedule isn’t the worst as East Carolina avoids the top three teams in the West division and three of its final four games are against teams right around the same caliber.
Keep an eye on… The first game of the season against Duke will either give this team a jolt or an early indication of where things are going to end up. Prior to last season, the Pirates were on a 3-15 ATS run at home dogs but finished 2004 with a 4-0 ATS mark which was due to the large amount of points they got. They are getting a point from the Blue Devils but that might not be enough.
UCF Golden Knights
Fargo’s Take The Golden Knights were winless last season in their final year in the MAC and they are the holders of the longest current losing streak in division I with 15 straight setbacks. They will likely snap that streak at some point this year but where and when that happens is anyone’s guess. UCF does bring back a lot of starters from last year but it will be an uphill battle all season long.
Returning Starters on Offense – 8 Eight players return on offense but it is from an offense that scored no more than 28 points in any game last season and finished 113th in scoring offense and 114th in total offense. The Golden Knights do have a solid quarterback in Steven Moffett but the offensive line is the worst in the conference and gone is all-time leading rusher Alex Haynes.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense was better than the offense last year but not by much. They allowed 32.9 ppg on the season while surrendering 403.6 ypg. There is optimism however with six of the seven starters returning from the front seven. The problem is that they are still raw and with a secondary that is basically starting over, the improvements this season will likely be minimal.
Schedule It can’t get much worse as the Golden Knights have only four home games on the entire schedule as all three non-conference games are outside of Orlando. They open at South Carolina and while the other two non-conference games at South Florida and UL-Lafayette aren’t overly difficult, it will be tough to even get a split as they have dropped 13 straight away from home. There are no sure wins on the conference slate either.
Keep an eye on… UCF is 5-12 as a road dog in its last 17 tries and that includes a 1-7 ATS mark when getting single digits. That should be the case when the Golden Knights travel to Lafayette to take on the Cajuns. UL-Lafayette is 0-8-1 as a home favorite of more than three points and I’m guessing they will be laying around a touchdown in this one. Something will have to give.
This is Part 11 of a 20 Part College Football Preview Series from Matt Fargo. Check out future stories all summer long.
Conference USA went through the most changes of any conference in the country as it lost five teams but got six in return from the WAC and MAC. It also now has two divisions and will play a championship game, which seems to be the new fad in college football. The East Division will be the strongest as it has the most holdovers from the old conference and also has the best team with Southern Miss. There won’t be a ton of parity in the East because after Southern Miss, UAB and Memphis, the other three teams are in serious rebuilding mode.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Fargo’s Take With Louisville out of the mix and the conference splitting into two divisions, the Golden Eagles get the early nod in the East. Defense has always been the strength of this team but the offense showed some very positive signs last season and should improve. Southern Miss hasn’t had a losing season in 12 years and there is no reason for that string to end in 2005.
Returning Starters on Offense – 6 Injuries hurt the unit last season but a healthy Dustin Almond at quarterback will give this team a great shot at being productive. There is also a new offensive coordinator in Hattiesburg so the passing game that ranked 89th nationally last year should be more potent. The running game will be solid with a quality fullback and a blazer at tailback. The offensive line is young but there is experience there.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense allowed 24.8 ppg last season which is unheard of as is the 175.1 ypg allowed on the ground. This year, there are 10 juniors and seniors who will be starting so the defense has a great chance at becoming dominant once again. The Golden Eagles will have one of the best defensive lines and secondaries in the conference with the linebackers being the weak spot.
Schedule Southern Miss jumps right into conference action as it hosts an improving Tulane squad and then must make a trip to Alabama. Following that are five straight games that should be won but then the schedule gets really tough with trips to UAB and NC State in consecutive weeks. The season finale against Memphis could decide who the champion of the East will be.
Keep an eye on… The first game is at home but it is against an improved team from Tulane so the Golden Eagles cannot be looking ahead to Alabama. Southern Miss is 7-2 ATS in its last nine CUSA openers including a 6-1 ATS mark as a favorite. Tulane is just 18-29 ATS as a road dog within the conference and the road team is 3-7 ATS in this series.
UAB Blazers
Fargo’s Take The Blazers have the best chance of winning the East over Southern Miss and the biggest factor could be that they host the Golden Eagles. UAB is coming off its first ever bowl appearance and with 15 starters coming back, a second straight postseason trip should occur. This is going to be a fun team to watch on offense but it’s the defense that will determine how far it goes.
Returning Starters on Offense – 8 The Blazers have one of the most explosive quarterbacks in the conference in Darrell Hackney and even though All-Conference receiver Roddy White is gone, he will have plenty to throw to. The running game is solid and should flourish behind one of the biggest and best offensive lines in CUSA. The offense averaged 31 ppg last year and those numbers can go up even more in 2005.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 This is a fairly veteran group coming back but there are huge holes to fill at the linebacker position. Up front, the Blazers should once again be able to stop the run as three of four starters return. The secondary is experienced but UAB finished 111th in passing defense in 2004, allowing 270 ypg and an abysmal 60.1 percent completions.
Schedule The opener at Tennessee will be a good test of how close this team is to greatness and after that, there isn’t much in its way for the next five games. Then comes the showdown against Southern Miss that will give the winner an early jump on the division title. Games at Memphis and UTEP follow in two of the next three weeks so the bottom half of the slate is going to be a challenge.
Keep an eye on… The Blazers are likely going to be double digit favorites in three games following Tennessee and they are just 2-6 ATS in that role the past two seasons. The most surprising is that they have lost four of those games outright with the average line differential a whopping 29 ppg. The offense will most likely get them the wins but the defense will be keeping the backdoor open.
Memphis Tigers
Fargo’s Take The Tigers have gone to a bowl game the past two seasons, the first time that has ever happened in school history. Going back for a third consecutive season won’t be a piece of cake but it certainly isn’t impossible. The defense needs to strengthen itself and a new quarterback will need to step in right away so the early part of the season could have its difficulties.
Returning Starters on Offense – 4 The graduation of four-year starter Danny Wimprine will no doubt hurt the offense that ranked 9th in total offense and 10th in scoring defense last year. The scoring output has improved in each of the past three years but that will come to an end this season. The fact that running back DeAngelo Williams came back for his senior season will at least give it some life early on.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 This is where dramatic improvements will need to take place in order for 2005 to be a successful season. The defense is getting a lot of starters back but the unit finished last season 90th in both scoring defense and total defense. The secondary is thin and the front line has question marks but the linebackers are the best in the conference and will likely have to carry the entire unit.
Schedule Three of the first four games are at home which is a big bonus for a new offense while the only road game in that mix is at Tulsa which certainly is a winnable game. Four of the next six games are on the road including back-to-back Saturday trips to Tennessee and Southern Miss. The season finale against Marshall could decide if the Tigers go bowling or not.
Keep an eye on… The game at Tulsa will be the first road game of the year and it will be a challenge for the young offense. Memphis is 9-16 ATS in its last 25 road games including a 3-7 ATS mark as a favorite. To make matters worse, the Tigers are just 8-15 as a favorite within the conference losing 11 of those games straight up.
Marshall Thundering Herd
Fargo’s Take The battle for 4th place in the division starts with newcomer Marshall who left the MAC for greener pastures. However, it’s going to be a not so smooth transition as this is a very young team with a brand new head coach to top it off. This was definitely the right move for the Herd as there will be a lot more exposure and in a couple years, they will be back on top.
Returning Starters on Offense – 3 Talk about rebuilding. The Herd are replacing nearly every skill position and three-fifths of the offensive line. The quarterback position is still up for grabs while the receivers are very young and very inexperienced. The only positive on this unit is tailback Ahmad Bradshaw who showed signed of brilliance as a freshman last season but after that, it’s all a big jumble.
Returning Starters on Defense – 3 The entire front seven will be new and that will hurt early on since Marshall was 19th in the country against the run last season. The strength is the secondary where three of the four starters return and they will be one of the best in the conference. There will be some great passing teams in CUSA so having a strong defensive backfield is key. But it won’t be able to carry the entire load.
Schedule The first game is a home date with William & Mary and that will be a very good tune-up before revenge minded Kansas St. comes to visit the following weekend. Two relatively easy conference games follow before a trip to Virginia Tech ends the non-conference portion of the schedule. Southern Miss and UAB come to visit while the Herd travel to UTEP and Memphis so there is no advantage either way.
Keep an eye on… The game against Kansas St. is an interesting match up since it’s the first true test of the season against a team looking for some revenge. Marshall has played the BCS conferences tough recently losing to Ohio St., Georgia and Tennessee the last two seasons by a combined 23 points while defeating the Wildcats in 2003. Marshall is 53-3 at home since 1996 so who knows.
East Carolina Pirates
Fargo’s Take The next stop on the rebuilding train stops in Greenville as East Carolina is looking to start fresh once again with a new head coach. The Pirates bring a lot back to the table but they have won just three games the past two seasons and haven’t been to a bowl game since 2001. Skip Holtz has a lot of work to do but the good news is that things can’t get much worse.
Returning Starters on Offense – 8 The best news for the offense is that quarterback James Pinkney has been granted academic approval and will be competing for the starting job. He will likely get it since he started all 11 games last season and had a decent year. The running game should be ok as Chris Johnson returns and he will be running behind a big and experienced offensive line.
Returning Starters on Defense – 9 This is where the trouble really lies as the Pirates ranked 115th in scoring defense, 114th in rushing defense and 111th in total defense in 2004. The passing defense was good only because teams didn’t have to throw on them. There will be many different looks this season that will be positioned around a very strong group of linebackers.
Schedule The Pirates don’t face the toughest of non-conference teams to the average team but East Carolina is no average team. They host Duke before heading out on the road two weeks later to Wake Forest and West Virginia. The conference schedule isn’t the worst as East Carolina avoids the top three teams in the West division and three of its final four games are against teams right around the same caliber.
Keep an eye on… The first game of the season against Duke will either give this team a jolt or an early indication of where things are going to end up. Prior to last season, the Pirates were on a 3-15 ATS run at home dogs but finished 2004 with a 4-0 ATS mark which was due to the large amount of points they got. They are getting a point from the Blue Devils but that might not be enough.
UCF Golden Knights
Fargo’s Take The Golden Knights were winless last season in their final year in the MAC and they are the holders of the longest current losing streak in division I with 15 straight setbacks. They will likely snap that streak at some point this year but where and when that happens is anyone’s guess. UCF does bring back a lot of starters from last year but it will be an uphill battle all season long.
Returning Starters on Offense – 8 Eight players return on offense but it is from an offense that scored no more than 28 points in any game last season and finished 113th in scoring offense and 114th in total offense. The Golden Knights do have a solid quarterback in Steven Moffett but the offensive line is the worst in the conference and gone is all-time leading rusher Alex Haynes.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense was better than the offense last year but not by much. They allowed 32.9 ppg on the season while surrendering 403.6 ypg. There is optimism however with six of the seven starters returning from the front seven. The problem is that they are still raw and with a secondary that is basically starting over, the improvements this season will likely be minimal.
Schedule It can’t get much worse as the Golden Knights have only four home games on the entire schedule as all three non-conference games are outside of Orlando. They open at South Carolina and while the other two non-conference games at South Florida and UL-Lafayette aren’t overly difficult, it will be tough to even get a split as they have dropped 13 straight away from home. There are no sure wins on the conference slate either.
Keep an eye on… UCF is 5-12 as a road dog in its last 17 tries and that includes a 1-7 ATS mark when getting single digits. That should be the case when the Golden Knights travel to Lafayette to take on the Cajuns. UL-Lafayette is 0-8-1 as a home favorite of more than three points and I’m guessing they will be laying around a touchdown in this one. Something will have to give.
This is Part 11 of a 20 Part College Football Preview Series from Matt Fargo. Check out future stories all summer long.
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