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2005 Big East Preview

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  • 2005 Big East Preview

    Only four teams remain from the same league we saw in 2003 and there is little doubt that the Big East has weakened. With Virginia Tech, Miami and Boston College now gone, Louisville, Cincinnati and South Florida will try to keep the conference a strong one but the Cardinals are the only formidable team at this point. In it’s first season, Louisville should run the show as a lot of the talent remains from the team that went 11-1 last season with the only loss being at Miami by a mere three points. There will be a lot of talk that the Big East should no longer have an automatic BCS bid.

    Louisville Cardinals

    Fargo’s Take The Cardinals had a tremendous season in 2004 and even though they will be without their starting quarterback and running back, things are looking up once again. This is a top ten team once again and while they missed out on a BCS game last season, that shouldn’t be the case this year. The Cardinals can easily run the table with one of the best offense in the country.

    Returning Starters on Offense – 8 Louisville finished 2004 first in both total offense and scoring offense and there should not be much of a decrease this year. Brian Brohm played enough as freshman that his transition into the starter role should be smooth, as should that of running back Michael Bush, who rushed for 734 yards last season. Louisville scored 50 or more points seven times last season.

    Returning Starters on Defense – 5 If there is one significant weakness for the Cardinals, it is the secondary that needs to replace three starters and has five freshmen and sophomores in the two deep chart. What they lack in the defensive backfield, they make up for up front as the defensive line will be the strength of the unit. This was a top 20 defense a year ago but was overshadowed by the offense.

    Schedule The Big East schedule is not difficult as a trip to West Virginia is the only tricky road game on the conference slate. A visit from Pittsburgh will likely be the difference between first and second place. The non-conference portion is average with games against North Carolina and Kentucky, who the Cardinals beat by a combined 62-0 last year, and a visit from Oregon St., who is rebuilding.

    Keep an eye on… Louisville plays two of its first three games on the road and it will be favored in both. The Cardinals are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as road chalk and with an offense that can strike anytime and anywhere, that success shouldn’t change. Don’t worry about laying the big numbers, as Louisville is 5-0 ATS when favored by 17 or more points.

    Pittsburgh Panthers

    Fargo’s Take The Panthers look to be the only team that has a shot at bringing down Louisville as they won’t be surrendering their reigning Big East Championship without a fight. Pittsburgh has a new head coach in Dave Wannstedt but he is walking into a perfect situation. He is a Pittsburgh graduate and he inherits a team that is loaded as the Panthers bring back 16 starters.

    Returning Starters on Offense – 9 The offense took some time to gel last season but finished strong by scoring 31 or more points in four of the final six games. Most everyone is back including quarterback Tyler Palko who ended last season by throwing 17 touchdowns and only two interceptions during that six game run. There will be a lot more balance this season but that will only strengthen the offense.

    Returning Starters on Defense – 7 Pittsburgh will be more aggressive this season on the defensive side of the ball and the team speed will also be improved. The Panthers had trouble stopping the pass last year but the secondary will actually be one of the strengths with three starters returning. The defense finished 73rd in the country in total defense in 2004 but Wannstedt knows his defense and that number will improve.

    Schedule The schedule is not easy with Notre Dame and Nebraska being two of the first three games this season. Ohio and Youngtown St. are the other two non-conference games, which will be no problem. The problem lies at the end of the schedule where the Panthers travel to West Virginia and Louisville in two of their final three games and those are not two easy games in the least bit.

    Keep an eye on… With the trip to the Fiesta Bowl last season, the Panthers could be seeing some big numbers in 2005 which might not be a good thing. Pittsburgh is 1-8 ATS when laying more than 20 points at home and we could very well see that three times this season against South Florida, Cincinnati and Connecticut, three teams in big time rebuilding modes.

    Syracuse Orange

    Fargo’s Take It will be a different looking Orange team in 2005 and that can only be a good thing. Greg Robinson takes over as head coach, the first replacement in 15 years and he is giving the stale Syracuse team a whole new look. Georgia Tech blew the Orange away last season in the Champs Sports Bowl and without a bowl win since 2001 a change was imminent.

    Returning Starters on Offense – 5 The west coast offense will be heading east and Syracuse will look to open things up a little more in 2005. A new system is never easy to put into place but with an offensive line that consists of four seniors and a junior, the transition should be doable. Damien Rhodes is an experienced back who rushed for 870 yards last season even though he isn’t considered a returning starter.

    Returning Starters on Defense – 9 The good news is that nine starters return to the defense but the bad news is that defense finished 101st in total defense a season ago. This is an experienced group however and with Robinson being the defensive coordinator at Texas last year, this unit will improve dramatically. 16 of the 22 players on the two-deep chart are either seniors or juniors and the linebackers are some of the best in the conference.

    Schedule The schedule is brutal on the non-conference side with back-to-back games against Virginia and Florida St. and then a trip to Notre Dame at the end of November. The conference is in a down year which helps that part of the schedule but what doesn’t help are trips to Pittsburgh and Louisville, with the game against the Cardinals directly following the game at Notre Dame.

    Keep an eye on… Syracuse has always been a tough team in the Carrier Dome and this year should be no different as a renewed enthusiasm will spike the attendance figures that were way down last year. The Orange are 27-9 ATS in their last 36 games in the dome and with six games on the home slate, the only real test will be from Virginia who will have two weeks to prepare for that contest.

    West Virginia Mountaineers

    Fargo’s Take The Mountaineers have a lot to replace and that problem is that the big playmakers are the ones that need to be replaced. West Virginia doesn’t come into this season with a lot of momentum as it lost its final three games of the season after starting 8-1. The offensive line is the unit that is bringing the most back but injuries could hamper it as well.

    Returning Starters on Offense – 4 This is where the biggest problems lie as a new quarterback and a whole new receiving unit will need to emerge. The running game has some solid experience coming back but if the offensive line isn’t ready to go, then that could be an issue as well. The offense sputtered near the end of last season averaging just 17 ppg in its final three games.

    Returning Starters on Defense – 5 This is the place where the early part of the season may be won or lost. If the defense can hold firm and carry the offense until it comes together, then West Virginia has a shot at a decent year. The problem is that the front six is very young and very inexperienced. The secondary is one of the best in the conference despite the loss of Pac-Man Jones.

    Schedule The schedule isn’t terrible early on and that will be huge since it will take some time for this team to find continuity. The Mountaineers travel to Syracuse for the opener and that will not be easy but the next three games can be won including a game at Maryland who expects to be down this year as well. Pittsburgh and Louisville both travel to Morgantown, which is a big plus.

    Keep an eye on… The game at Syracuse might determine whether or not this season will be a successful one. The Mountaineers have covered the last four against Syracuse and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 visits to the Carrier Dome. Syracuse is just 7-15 ATS in its last 22 home openers but 20-6 ATS when favored at home.

    Rutgers Scarlet Knights

    Fargo’s Take This is the year that it has to happen for Rutgers or it could be adios for head coach Greg Schiano. This is his fifth year with the Scarlet Knights and with the first four being losing seasons, now is the time to have some success. After a 5-7 2003, last season was an optimistic one especially starting the year 4-2. However, five straight losses to close the season ended any hope of a winning record.

    Returning Starters on Offense – 9 Along with Pittsburgh, this is the most experienced offense in the Big East. The Scarlet Knights bring back most of the pieces from the 40th ranked total offense in the country. The rushing game was awful but a lot of that was due to injuries and the success of the passing game. The run attack should improve and this could be one of the better offenses in the entire conference.

    Returning Starters on Defense – 8 The defense really hurt this team down the stretch as they allowed 38.4 ppg in their final five games and the unit ranked 104th in total defense in the nation. Schiano is taking over the duties of defensive coordinator and with a lot of young guys with stating experience, the defense should be better this time around. How much better will determine if it can finish in the top half.

    Schedule Rutgers starts with a very important game at Illinois and a win over the Illini should put it in place for a 3-0 start. Villanova follows but cannot be overlooked at the Scarlet Knights lost to New Hampshire last season. Four of their seven Big East Games are at home including Pittsburgh and West Virginia which happen to be the first two conference games of they ear. Winning those could make it a special season.

    Keep an eye on… The game at Illinois could jumpstart this team while a loss could send them spiraling fast. Rutgers is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 as a non-conference road dog and with the Scarlet Knights getting a couple points in Champaign, that success could continue. Remember this team defeated Michigan St. last year and they have covered three of the last four against the Big Ten.

    Connecticut Huskies

    Fargo’s Take The Huskies start off the bottom half of the conference and after a bowl win last season, things should not be as good this year. The running game is going to have to carry the offense, as there will be a lot of retooling. The schedule sets up well for a decent start but getting back to a bowl in 2005 might be too much to ask for.

    Returning Starters on Offense – 5 Replacing quarterback Dan Orlovsky is going to be impossible especially since the replacement will have never started a college game. To top that off, the offensive line is going to be three-fifths new so even the running game could have some troubles early on. This team finished 19th in total offense in 2004 but there is no chance they will come close to that again this season.

    Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense was a top 40 team in all major categories but that will also change. The front seven is experienced but linebacker James Hargrave is the only playmaker in the mix. The secondary should be decent but with a lack of premier passing teams in the conference, it might not be to their advantage.

    Schedule The schedule sets up well for a fast start as the Huskies should be 3-1 heading into their Big East home opener against Syracuse. Four of their conference games are at home including two of the tougher ones with Louisville and Syracuse. Consecutive road games at West Virginia and Pittsburgh will be tough to handle as will the season finale against the Cardinals.

    Keep an eye on… Connecticut has not lost in three years when it is favored on the road and we will see that situation when the Huskies travel to Army on October 1st. One of those victories came at Army back in 2003 but it is very possible the streak ends this season. Army isn’t going to be doing much either so the game could be closer than most expect.

    Cincinnati Bearcats

    Fargo’s Take Cincinnati is coming into a new conference and it really couldn’t have happened at a worse time. Nobody lost more heading into this season that the Bearcats did as they need to replace 16 starters on both sides of the ball including almost every skill position. This team won five of six to become bowl eligible last year but with just seven seniors on the two deep roster, it won’t happen again.

    Returning Starters on Offense – 3 The offense not only has to replace four-year starting quarterback Gino Guidugli but also the tailback and four-fifths of the offensive line. Oh, and both receivers. Basically this team is starting from scratch and coming even close to its 30th ranking in total offense last season will be impossible. This team scored 32 or more points five times but will be lucky to get that once this year.

    Returning Starters on Defense – 3 The defense is not in much better shape and while defenses tend to carry young offenses through part of the season, that will be tough to do. Only one player in the entire front seven is back while five of the six replacements are sophomores and freshmen. The secondary is the most experienced unit with four juniors lining up but it won’t be enough to carry the entire side.

    Schedule The non-conference part of the schedule would have been doable last season but not this year. The only sure win is a home game against Western Carolina, which is sandwiched between three tough road games at Penn St., Miami Ohio and Pittsburgh. The Bearcats also finish the season with three of four on the road so there is no break anywhere in the slate to get some momentum going.

    Keep an eye on… The first game of the season against Eastern Michigan is going to tell a lot about this team. The Eagles are improved but still not a top MAC team so this is the type of game that Cincinnati should win every season. But being the first game with all sorts of new people makes it not a sure win. Cincinnati is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games as a double-digit favorite including losses in five of its last six.

    South Florida Bulls

    Fargo’s Take The Bulls round out the teams coming over from Conference USA and this is going to be another tough year for South Florida. This team did have some quality wins last season but it also had some losses that were inexcusable. The step up in class isn’t going to help things as the three games last year against teams they will face this season were all routs.

    Returning Starters on Offense – 8 The one big positive for the Bulls is that they will feature one of the best running backs in the entire conference in Andre Hall. He rushed for nearly 1,400 yards last season and he will be the focal point once again. There is experience all over the offense but this team scored 23 or less points in seven of their games last season so it needs to find a passing attack and fast.

    Returning Starters on Defense – 8 The defense also returns a lot of experience with eight juniors and seniors starting in 2005. The problem is that they weren’t very effective last season, ranking 94th in scoring defense. The stop unit allowed 41 or more points five times and with the competition getting better this year, an improvement is unlikely. There is no pass rush and that will haunt them all year.

    Schedule There are two chances for wins early in the season against Florida A&M and Central Florida but after that, it looks like eight straight losses unless something miraculous happens. The Bulls play Louisville, Miami and Pittsburgh in a four-week stretch that includes a bye but after getting trounced in those three games, the confidence could be shot and the season could be tossed away.

    Keep an eye on…The Bulls were 2-6 ATS as an underdog last season showing that they lost the games they were supposed to lose. Similar outcomes are on the horizon this season starting with a game at improved Penn St. Five of their seven losses last season were by 16 points or more with an average defeat of 26 ppg in those five defeats.

    This is Part 10 of a 20 Part College Football Preview Series from Matt Fargo. Check out future stories all summer long.
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