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Two things that the average bettor loves to do in preseason... play on favorites and OVER the total.
What we find in early action is that teams that get stuck playing in the Hall of Fame Game and the American Bowl not only have to play an extra game during training camp, but they have also had less time to work on the timing and cohesiveness that is so important to offenses.
In the case of The American Bowl being played in Tokyo on Saturday morning, we have several factors that stack up poorly for these two teams, but it looks like Indy gets the worst of it.
Both teams flew 14-16 hours to arrive in Japan, losing almost a full day in the process. Add to that a game that will start at 4am Indianapolis time, and a Astroturf field that is such bad shape, it makes old Veteran's Stadium in Philly look state of the art. They have big patches and seams to cover the cutouts where the bases are located and the turf is ancient, to say the least. Players and coaches hate these types of conditions because injuries on these fields are prevalent. All anyone wants to do is get in, get out and get home without serious injury.
Practices are extremely limited and Tony Dungy has said that this trip is an opportunity for his squad to explore the city and see the sights. Two short early morning practices are all that are scheduled and there has been some discussion that Jim Mora and Tony Dungy may agree not to blitz defensively, at least while Vick and Manning are in the game so that both franchise players can stay injury free, but also for the fans get a chance to see them perform and put on a show.
Defensively, the Colts are going to be without more than half of their defensive starters for this game, even with the first team getting only fifteen snaps as planned. This will mean that the 2nd and 3rd teamers and rookies will have to go deeper into the game and play many more snaps. The 4th quarter will be tough on Indy with depth being a problem. By late in the game, you will likely see guys that won't be around in a couple of weeks.
Atlanta is likely to play Michael Vick only one or two series, as Mora won't risk the franchise player on this field. Everyone remembers his preseason injury that took him out of action for most of 2003. The Falcons have better depth at most positions on both sides of the ball right now with all the Colts issues on defense and now Brandon Stokely is out at least 4 weeks after separating his shoulder on Wednesday. The Falcons QB rotation of Michael Vick, Matt Schaub, Ty Detmer and Bryan Randall are likely to perform better than the trio of Manning, Cory Sauter and Jim Sorgi as the game progresses.
While both coaches will say that they came to Tokyo to win, only one is likely to mean it. Remember, this is an NFL that will not allow the term "exhibition game" to be used, insisting on "preseason"... so the coaches must pretend that all these games are important. In a way they are, at least as far as analyzing talent and rookies that are playing for roster spots behind the starters. The reality, however is that the most important thing is keeping people healthy and getting home in one piece. Mora has better depth right now and likely has more desire to win this one. With both teams having a very short amount of practice time and a five game "preseason" schedule, look for relatively conservative game plans and lots of bodies running through the player rotations. Edge on both sides of the ball to the Falcons. Your free play is to take Atlanta plus the points, but I expect a straight up Falcon win. Very slight lean to UNDER 42 as well.
I will have a official play posted on the website tonight after 10pm PDT for the Hall of Fame Game between Chicago and Miami on Monday night from Canton, available for only $15 by PayPal. Go to the Advantage Sports page using the link on my website or by going to AdvantageSports1.com to get my first preseason official release. I will have another free play posted later next week when all 32 teams get rolling in Week One action. Remember, the play will be up after 10pm PDT tonight... and lastly, the special promotion for 40% off the Full season package expires Saturday after the American Bowl and will go back to the regular price of $795. Don't miss out!
What we find in early action is that teams that get stuck playing in the Hall of Fame Game and the American Bowl not only have to play an extra game during training camp, but they have also had less time to work on the timing and cohesiveness that is so important to offenses.
In the case of The American Bowl being played in Tokyo on Saturday morning, we have several factors that stack up poorly for these two teams, but it looks like Indy gets the worst of it.
Both teams flew 14-16 hours to arrive in Japan, losing almost a full day in the process. Add to that a game that will start at 4am Indianapolis time, and a Astroturf field that is such bad shape, it makes old Veteran's Stadium in Philly look state of the art. They have big patches and seams to cover the cutouts where the bases are located and the turf is ancient, to say the least. Players and coaches hate these types of conditions because injuries on these fields are prevalent. All anyone wants to do is get in, get out and get home without serious injury.
Practices are extremely limited and Tony Dungy has said that this trip is an opportunity for his squad to explore the city and see the sights. Two short early morning practices are all that are scheduled and there has been some discussion that Jim Mora and Tony Dungy may agree not to blitz defensively, at least while Vick and Manning are in the game so that both franchise players can stay injury free, but also for the fans get a chance to see them perform and put on a show.
Defensively, the Colts are going to be without more than half of their defensive starters for this game, even with the first team getting only fifteen snaps as planned. This will mean that the 2nd and 3rd teamers and rookies will have to go deeper into the game and play many more snaps. The 4th quarter will be tough on Indy with depth being a problem. By late in the game, you will likely see guys that won't be around in a couple of weeks.
Atlanta is likely to play Michael Vick only one or two series, as Mora won't risk the franchise player on this field. Everyone remembers his preseason injury that took him out of action for most of 2003. The Falcons have better depth at most positions on both sides of the ball right now with all the Colts issues on defense and now Brandon Stokely is out at least 4 weeks after separating his shoulder on Wednesday. The Falcons QB rotation of Michael Vick, Matt Schaub, Ty Detmer and Bryan Randall are likely to perform better than the trio of Manning, Cory Sauter and Jim Sorgi as the game progresses.
While both coaches will say that they came to Tokyo to win, only one is likely to mean it. Remember, this is an NFL that will not allow the term "exhibition game" to be used, insisting on "preseason"... so the coaches must pretend that all these games are important. In a way they are, at least as far as analyzing talent and rookies that are playing for roster spots behind the starters. The reality, however is that the most important thing is keeping people healthy and getting home in one piece. Mora has better depth right now and likely has more desire to win this one. With both teams having a very short amount of practice time and a five game "preseason" schedule, look for relatively conservative game plans and lots of bodies running through the player rotations. Edge on both sides of the ball to the Falcons. Your free play is to take Atlanta plus the points, but I expect a straight up Falcon win. Very slight lean to UNDER 42 as well.
I will have a official play posted on the website tonight after 10pm PDT for the Hall of Fame Game between Chicago and Miami on Monday night from Canton, available for only $15 by PayPal. Go to the Advantage Sports page using the link on my website or by going to AdvantageSports1.com to get my first preseason official release. I will have another free play posted later next week when all 32 teams get rolling in Week One action. Remember, the play will be up after 10pm PDT tonight... and lastly, the special promotion for 40% off the Full season package expires Saturday after the American Bowl and will go back to the regular price of $795. Don't miss out!
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