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2005 Pac 10 Preview
There are a lot of debates on the strength of the Pac 10 as to whether it is one of the best considering it has had the National Champion the last two seasons. I don’t consider this to be a very strong conference this season as USC is the only clear-cut team that has a chance to make it to a BCS game. The one thing the Pac 10 has going for it this season is parity. After the Trojans, there are six teams that have a shot at second place while the bottom three won’t be nearly as bad and will have more than the four combined wins from a year ago.
Southern Cal Trojans
Fargo’s Take This is the obvious choice for the Pac 10 champion and with good reason. The Trojans are the best team in the country coming into 2005 as they have so much talent on both sides of the ball once again. All of the offensive playmakers return and the defense will once again be strong despite losing a lot. The biggest question mark is how the offense will perform with a new offensive coordinator calling the plays.
Returning Starters on Offense – 8 This unit is loaded once again with Heisman hopefuls at quarterback and running back. The offensive line is one of the best in the country while the wideouts are the best in the conference and arguably the best in the country as the depth makes them tough to defend. Last season, the offense finished sixth in scoring and 12th in total offense and if those rankings don’t improve, it will be a surprise.
Returning Starters on Defense – 5 If there is one potential problem for the Trojans, this is it. There are plenty of athletes still but big time players from the defensive line and linebacker have moved on. USC is also thin at cornerback as there is only one experienced player back there. The Trojans were top 10 last season in both scoring and total defense and while they won’t plummet too much, they will definitely fall some.
Schedule The schedule isn’t terrible but it isn’t the best either. The Trojans have 12 games this season with four non-conference games that won’t be cakewalks. They play at Hawaii to open the season, never an easy place to go and then travel to Note Dame in October, which is very unusual it’s so early. Home games against Arkansas and Fresno St. cannot be overlooked. The game at Cal in November could decide the Pac 10 champion.
Keep an eye on… The middle of September through the middle of October, the Trojans play four of five games on the road and one of those games is going to be a struggle. Oregon, Arizona St. and Notre Dame are not easy places to go to and this is the team everyone is gunning for. USC finished 2-4 ATS as road favorites last season and I expect more of the same this year as they will be overvalued once again.
California Golden Bears
Fargo’s Take Cal once again came close to beating the Trojans for a second straight year losing on the final play two years in a row. Is this the year? Probably not, although the Bears get USC coming to Berkley on November 12th and that could decide the championship. Cal has to replace a lot of talent on both sides but Jeff Tedford has turned this program into a winning one and the Bears will believe once again.
Returning Starters on Offense – 6 Replacing Aaron Rodgers, J.J. Arrington and Geoff McArthur is going to be next to impossible but Tedford is an offensive genius and the Bears will be just fine. Part of the reason is an offensive line that is top five in the country with four returnees including All-American and All-Conference players. The production will go down but there is enough in place to be successful.
Returning Starters on Defense – 3 The secondary is the only part of the defense with more than one player coming back and that could be most important considering the open offenses they will face this season. Six of the seven players from the 4-3 defense need to be replaced but talent is coming in from JUCO ranks to help fill the voids. The Bears were eighth in the country in scoring defense last year, allowing just 16 ppg. The newbies will have to play big to match that output.
Schedule The good news is that the schedule is very soft especially early on and that is going to help the offense and defense with plenty of time to find comfort levels. The three non-conference games are a joke and while there is one conference game within that mix, it’s only a trip to Washington. The Bears should be 5-0 heading to UCLA and possibly 8-0 heading to Oregon. But there will be a slip somewhere.
Keep an eye on… The game against USC is circled on the schedule but Cal cannot be looking ahead too early or the game will mean nothing. The Bears have covered in six of the last seven, eight of the last 10 and 11 of the last 15 meetings. USC is just 6-12 ATS since 1999 as a single digit favorite within the conference so another last drive finish for the third straight year wouldn’t be surprising.
UCLA Bruins
Fargo’s Take The Bruins are heading in the right direction and a slipup by Cal could mean a ticket to play USC in the season finale for the conference championship. UCLA finished 6-6 after a disappointing loss to Wyoming in the Las Vegas Bowl but there is plenty to build on as four of the Bruins losses were by six points or less. Eight wins is a must this season, something that hasn’t happened in six years.
Returning Starters on Offense – 7 The success of the offense will be determined how quickly quarterback Drew Olsen recovers from off-season knee surgery. If he can’t go early on, the Bruins will struggle, as there isn’t much experience behind him. The running game will carry the load and it will be behind a very experienced offensive line where all five starters have starting experience. The Bruins have one of the best tight ends in the country in Marcedes Lewis.
Returning Starters on Defense – 8 The Bruins will be more experienced this season especially on the defensive line and things should improve. The unit was last in the conference in run defense and total defense and finished 105th and 106th respectively in the nation. While the run defense will get better, UCLA can’t afford a falloff in the secondary where they are young and lack depth.
Schedule A home date with Oklahoma highlights the non-conference slate and with the Sooners looking vulnerable this year, anything is possible. Three of the upper echelon teams visit Los Angeles while the first three conference road games aren’t extremely tough. The big one is at USC on December 5th and UCLA will have three weeks to prepare for that showdown.
Keep an eye on… UCLA is only 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games as a conference favorite and the Bruins will be in that position quite a few times this season. That includes a 2-10 ATS record as a road favorite and they will be the chalk at Stanford and Arizona later in the season so those games could be closer than what we might expect.
Arizona St. Sun Devils
Fargo’s Take Turmoil hit the Sun Devils over the spring when leading tailback Loren Wade was arrested for murder and that is going to shadow this team all season. The pieces are in place for a possible top 25 season but the focus that this team has is going to determine their success. If they simply play football, a run at the top spot is possible although unlikely.
Returning Starters on Offense – 8 The offensive backfield is where the biggest holes are with Wade and All-Pac 10 quarterback Andrew Walter needing to be replaced. Sam Keller led the team to a Sun Bowl win last season and he looked good in the spring. He has the second best group of receivers and third best offensive line in the conference so the transition should be smooth. Finding a running game might not.
Returning Starters on Defense – 6 The front four is the weakest part of the defense as a pass rush is going to be vital this season. The unit ranked 48th in both scoring and total defense last season so there is that to build from. The linebackers and defensive backs are both experienced and deep and ranked among the top in the conference so if they can get a push up front, this could be one of the best defenses in the Pac 10.
Schedule A trip to LSU makes for a difficult schedule but the other two non-conference games are at home before the conference slate begins. It starts tough with a trip to Corvallis before hosting USC and Oregon back-to-back but the final five games make a relatively easy finish. Three of those five games are on the road but none are suicide and the Sun Devils miss Cal this season.
Keep an eye on… The Sun Devils thrive at home when getting points as they are 9-2 ATS since 1995 as home dogs. This includes an 8-1 ATS mark when getting single digits. The Pac 10 home opener is against the Trojans so USC had better be ready. Arizona St. will no doubt be getting points but the question is how many and if USC is going to stumble early, this could be the place.
Oregon Ducks
Fargo’s Take The Ducks have underachieved each of the past three seasons as this is a team that has had some incredible talent but hasn’t done much with it. They bottomed out last year with their first losing season in 10 years after dropping their final three games including an embarrassing loss to rival Oregon St. There is plenty of talent to turn things around but there are also a lot of missing pieces.
Returning Starters on Offense – 7 The offense slipped last season even with playmakers everywhere and even though those guys return, the problems could continue. The offensive line lost three starters and four seniors and with six of the 10 players in the two-deep chart being freshmen and sophomores, there will be struggles. They will have to mature in a hurry, as the season starts tough.
Returning Starters on Defense – 6 This is not an aggressive styled defense and with linebacker position being very thin and the worst in the conference, that probably won’t change. The secondary will have help with a rover and it is an experienced group that needs to make plays. The defensive line is one of the best around and will anchor the team early on but the rest of the unit will need to respond to be successful.
Schedule The schedule isn’t extremely difficult but it is fairly top heavy. The Ducks start out at improved Houston and following a scrimmage against Montana, Fresno St. and USC come to Autzen Stadium the next two Saturdays. The three big games in the conference against the Trojans, Bears and Beavers are all at home which is very big because of the strong home field edge.
Keep an eye on… The Ducks were lambasted at Oregon St. last season by 29 points so you know the Civil War will have a little extra motivation for Oregon. Three years ago, they lost to the Beavers in Corvallis by 21 points and came home the following season and won by 14 points. Oregon has won the last five meetings at Autzen and has also won nine of the last 11 there.
Washington St. Cougars
Fargo’s Take The Cougars slipped last season with their first non 10 win season in four years. Injuries and inexperience did them in last year resulting in the first losing season in five years. Four of their five wins were by four points or less so the 5-6 record could have been much worse. There is optimism going into 2005 as a lot of returning starters are back but it will be tough getting over the hump.
Returning Starters on Offense – 9 Even though most of the starters are back, there are plenty of questions heading into the fall. The quarterbacks both started half the games last season but both are relatively inexperienced. The running game is non-existent after Jerome Harrison and the offensive line is small and inexperienced. The receivers are some of the best in the Pac 10 but getting them the ball is the issue.
Returning Starters on Defense – 6 The defense allowed 25 or more points in each of its last five games including 38 or more three times so that is going to have to improve dramatically. The pass defense was horrid and there looks to be no end in sight with little experience and depth roaming the secondary. The linebackers are the strength of the unit but they will be getting overworked if the front four can’t get into the offensive backfield as there in not much depth up there.
Schedule The non-conference portion of the schedule is very easy and could help bring along some of the new personnel. After the first five games, the next five games are daunting with UCLA, Cal, USC, Arizona St. and Oregon on the slate in consecutive weeks. It’s possible that a win at Washington in the Apple Bowl could be the difference between a bowl berth or another postseason at home.
Keep an eye on… The Cougars are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games as a home Pac 10 favorite including a 0-3 ATS mark last year. The straight up success of 2001-2003 could still be haunting Washington St. backers with too many points to be lying. The Cougars will be favored against Stanford and possibly UCLA so the trend could continue in 2005.
Oregon St. Beavers
Fargo’s Take The Beavers are the last of the second tier bunch that could finish higher or be as low as seventh. The one positive heading into this season is that Oregon St. won six of its final seven games including a confidence-building win over Notre Dame in the Insight Bowl. However, a lot of what got them there is no longer around and this team is lacking playmakers after having a ton last year on both sides of the ball.
Returning Starters on Offense – 7 Inexperience at quarterback is a cause for concern after three-year starter Derek Anderson’s graduation. However, an even bigger concern is the running game where there is no experience coming back to the unit that ranked dead last in the country in rushing last season and averaged a mere 2.2 ypc. The line is very young and don’t expect SE Mike Hass to have another season like last year.
Returning Starters on Defense – 6 The defense finished in the top 20 in total defense last season but the Beavers were susceptible to the big play as they were only 48th in scoring defense. The linebackers are some of the best in the conference but the front line and secondary needs to rebuild after losing a lot. The potential is there but they will have to mature in a hurry.
Schedule Louisville and Boise St. are part of the non-conference schedule that is usually a killer every season. The good news is that four of the first five games are at home including their first two conference games. USC is not on the schedule which is an added bonus as is facing the bottom three teams in the Pac 10 three weeks straight before traveling to Oregon.
Keep an eye on… Reser Stadium is always kind to the Beavers and since 1998, the Beavers are 13-2-1 ATS when laying single digits at home. All of their conference home games could fit into that parameter this year depending on how the early part of the season plays out. Oregon St. is 31-6 SU at home since the end of 1998, covering 23 of the 32 lined games.
Arizona Wildcats
Fargo’s Take The bottom tier of the conference starts with a much improved Arizona team that was left for dead following a 4-24 losing run. The Wildcats ended last year with wins in two of their final three games and those are some incredible confidence victories heading into this year. In the early part of last season, they played Utah tough for a half and then lost the next two games by three points combined so this is a team going in the right direction.
Returning Starters on Offense – 7 The offense was horrible last season as the Wildcats finished next to last in scoring and 112th in total offense. Arizona had its two best offensive games in two of the last three contests so there is hope for this year. The running game is solid and with a the passing game coming around, teams will be forced to not stack the line like they did last year. It’s a work in progress and will take take.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense played good at times and horrible at times in 2004 so more consistency is the number one key for this year. The unit still made a vast improvement from the prior year and another jump is expected this season. The secondary is one of the best in the conference but for the Wildcats to be successful, they will need to get more pressure on the quarterbacks. The linebackers are also a concern.
Schedule The schedule is a huge problem early on and that could knock the confidence of this team down early. Four of the Wildcats first five games are against top 30 teams with three of those on the road including back-to-back games at Cal and USC. Once the dust settles, four of their final six games are at home and if the mental focus is still there, a good second half is quite possible.
Keep an eye on… Arizona is a cash burning 12-31 ATS since 1994 at home against the Pac 10. Following their brutal stretch to open the season, the Wildcats host Stanford and while stepping down in class will be a positive, coming off those games might take more than one game to recover. This game is going to be a challenge no matter what the spread may be.
Stanford Cardinal
Fargo’s Take Walt Harris comes in to turn around a once powerful program. The Cardinal were 9-2 just three short years ago and while Stanford had flashes of brilliance on both sides of the ball last year, there was no consistency and that is something Harris needs to work on with his new team. This team is a year away from becoming a real player in the conference and in the country.
Returning Starters on Offense – 9 Stanford will incorporate the west coast offense and with a ton of talent returning, scoring points will not be a problem. Only the fullback and tight end need to be replaced but a positive attitude must come first before anything. Stanford was 92nd in total offense and 85th in scoring offense so anything will be an improvement but it should be a significant one.
Returning Starters on Defense – 5 The defense will be more of a challenge as three-fourths of the secondary needs to be replaced but that might not be all that bad. The passing defense was 96th in the country last season so a new look could be a good thing. The defensive line is solid with three seniors but overall, the defense is tabbed as one of the worst in the conference and it will be up to the offense to outscore the opposition.
Schedule The slate isn’t overwhelming but the downfall is that the Cardinal don’t play Washington, the only team behind them. Navy and UC Davis provide a good tune-up for conference action that starts easy and finishes tough. The last four games are brutal with trips to USC and Oregon St. followed by home games against Cal and Notre Dame.
Keep an eye on… Stanford is 17-9 ATS as a single digit home underdog since 1991, winning 14 of those games outright. All five of their lined home games will likely have them as the underdog so the possibility of covering more than half of those is a good possibility. The offense will be able to score and even if the game is over, the backdoor should still always be open.
Washington Huskies
Fargo’s Take Washington went from 10-1 in 2000 to 1-10 in 2004 with a decrease in victories every year and that signaled it was time for a change. Ty Willingham brings in a winning attitude and his success at Stanford before going to Notre Dame should eventually find its way here. It isn’t going to happen overnight but an experienced team should up the win total and provide a solid base for the future.
Returning Starters on Offense – 8 The offense finished last in the country in scoring last season and 103rd in total offense so there is no where to go but up. There is plenty of experience on the offensive line with all five starters having started at least five games in their careers. That will help the running game, which will be fairly deep this year. The only question is who will be handing the ball off and throwing to a young group of receivers as the quarterback position is still up for grabs.
Returning Starters on Defense – 9 The defense had only one good game last season and that was against an even worse San Jose St. team. Things are looking up as nine players come back and there is a lot of potential for the front seven to become one of the best in the Pac 10. The problem lies in the secondary as the cornerback position is very thin and the Huskies will have their hands full in the pass happy conference.
Schedule The schedule couldn’t be better as the Huskies have only four true road games and they don’t leave Seattle until the beginning of October. The bad part is that Cal and Notre Dame are part of that early slate and it’s possible Washington could start the season 2-2 heading into the meat of the conference schedule. They get USC at home along with rival Washington St.
Keep an eye on… The game at UCLA on October 1st will be the Huskies first road game of the season and it just so happens to follow a showdown against Willingham’s former team Notre Dame. Washington is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as a double-digit road dog and on top of that, the Huskies are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games on grass including losses in the last eight contests. This one could be ugly.
This is Part 9 of a 20 Part College Football Preview Series from Matt Fargo. Check out future stories all summer long.
There are a lot of debates on the strength of the Pac 10 as to whether it is one of the best considering it has had the National Champion the last two seasons. I don’t consider this to be a very strong conference this season as USC is the only clear-cut team that has a chance to make it to a BCS game. The one thing the Pac 10 has going for it this season is parity. After the Trojans, there are six teams that have a shot at second place while the bottom three won’t be nearly as bad and will have more than the four combined wins from a year ago.
Southern Cal Trojans
Fargo’s Take This is the obvious choice for the Pac 10 champion and with good reason. The Trojans are the best team in the country coming into 2005 as they have so much talent on both sides of the ball once again. All of the offensive playmakers return and the defense will once again be strong despite losing a lot. The biggest question mark is how the offense will perform with a new offensive coordinator calling the plays.
Returning Starters on Offense – 8 This unit is loaded once again with Heisman hopefuls at quarterback and running back. The offensive line is one of the best in the country while the wideouts are the best in the conference and arguably the best in the country as the depth makes them tough to defend. Last season, the offense finished sixth in scoring and 12th in total offense and if those rankings don’t improve, it will be a surprise.
Returning Starters on Defense – 5 If there is one potential problem for the Trojans, this is it. There are plenty of athletes still but big time players from the defensive line and linebacker have moved on. USC is also thin at cornerback as there is only one experienced player back there. The Trojans were top 10 last season in both scoring and total defense and while they won’t plummet too much, they will definitely fall some.
Schedule The schedule isn’t terrible but it isn’t the best either. The Trojans have 12 games this season with four non-conference games that won’t be cakewalks. They play at Hawaii to open the season, never an easy place to go and then travel to Note Dame in October, which is very unusual it’s so early. Home games against Arkansas and Fresno St. cannot be overlooked. The game at Cal in November could decide the Pac 10 champion.
Keep an eye on… The middle of September through the middle of October, the Trojans play four of five games on the road and one of those games is going to be a struggle. Oregon, Arizona St. and Notre Dame are not easy places to go to and this is the team everyone is gunning for. USC finished 2-4 ATS as road favorites last season and I expect more of the same this year as they will be overvalued once again.
California Golden Bears
Fargo’s Take Cal once again came close to beating the Trojans for a second straight year losing on the final play two years in a row. Is this the year? Probably not, although the Bears get USC coming to Berkley on November 12th and that could decide the championship. Cal has to replace a lot of talent on both sides but Jeff Tedford has turned this program into a winning one and the Bears will believe once again.
Returning Starters on Offense – 6 Replacing Aaron Rodgers, J.J. Arrington and Geoff McArthur is going to be next to impossible but Tedford is an offensive genius and the Bears will be just fine. Part of the reason is an offensive line that is top five in the country with four returnees including All-American and All-Conference players. The production will go down but there is enough in place to be successful.
Returning Starters on Defense – 3 The secondary is the only part of the defense with more than one player coming back and that could be most important considering the open offenses they will face this season. Six of the seven players from the 4-3 defense need to be replaced but talent is coming in from JUCO ranks to help fill the voids. The Bears were eighth in the country in scoring defense last year, allowing just 16 ppg. The newbies will have to play big to match that output.
Schedule The good news is that the schedule is very soft especially early on and that is going to help the offense and defense with plenty of time to find comfort levels. The three non-conference games are a joke and while there is one conference game within that mix, it’s only a trip to Washington. The Bears should be 5-0 heading to UCLA and possibly 8-0 heading to Oregon. But there will be a slip somewhere.
Keep an eye on… The game against USC is circled on the schedule but Cal cannot be looking ahead too early or the game will mean nothing. The Bears have covered in six of the last seven, eight of the last 10 and 11 of the last 15 meetings. USC is just 6-12 ATS since 1999 as a single digit favorite within the conference so another last drive finish for the third straight year wouldn’t be surprising.
UCLA Bruins
Fargo’s Take The Bruins are heading in the right direction and a slipup by Cal could mean a ticket to play USC in the season finale for the conference championship. UCLA finished 6-6 after a disappointing loss to Wyoming in the Las Vegas Bowl but there is plenty to build on as four of the Bruins losses were by six points or less. Eight wins is a must this season, something that hasn’t happened in six years.
Returning Starters on Offense – 7 The success of the offense will be determined how quickly quarterback Drew Olsen recovers from off-season knee surgery. If he can’t go early on, the Bruins will struggle, as there isn’t much experience behind him. The running game will carry the load and it will be behind a very experienced offensive line where all five starters have starting experience. The Bruins have one of the best tight ends in the country in Marcedes Lewis.
Returning Starters on Defense – 8 The Bruins will be more experienced this season especially on the defensive line and things should improve. The unit was last in the conference in run defense and total defense and finished 105th and 106th respectively in the nation. While the run defense will get better, UCLA can’t afford a falloff in the secondary where they are young and lack depth.
Schedule A home date with Oklahoma highlights the non-conference slate and with the Sooners looking vulnerable this year, anything is possible. Three of the upper echelon teams visit Los Angeles while the first three conference road games aren’t extremely tough. The big one is at USC on December 5th and UCLA will have three weeks to prepare for that showdown.
Keep an eye on… UCLA is only 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games as a conference favorite and the Bruins will be in that position quite a few times this season. That includes a 2-10 ATS record as a road favorite and they will be the chalk at Stanford and Arizona later in the season so those games could be closer than what we might expect.
Arizona St. Sun Devils
Fargo’s Take Turmoil hit the Sun Devils over the spring when leading tailback Loren Wade was arrested for murder and that is going to shadow this team all season. The pieces are in place for a possible top 25 season but the focus that this team has is going to determine their success. If they simply play football, a run at the top spot is possible although unlikely.
Returning Starters on Offense – 8 The offensive backfield is where the biggest holes are with Wade and All-Pac 10 quarterback Andrew Walter needing to be replaced. Sam Keller led the team to a Sun Bowl win last season and he looked good in the spring. He has the second best group of receivers and third best offensive line in the conference so the transition should be smooth. Finding a running game might not.
Returning Starters on Defense – 6 The front four is the weakest part of the defense as a pass rush is going to be vital this season. The unit ranked 48th in both scoring and total defense last season so there is that to build from. The linebackers and defensive backs are both experienced and deep and ranked among the top in the conference so if they can get a push up front, this could be one of the best defenses in the Pac 10.
Schedule A trip to LSU makes for a difficult schedule but the other two non-conference games are at home before the conference slate begins. It starts tough with a trip to Corvallis before hosting USC and Oregon back-to-back but the final five games make a relatively easy finish. Three of those five games are on the road but none are suicide and the Sun Devils miss Cal this season.
Keep an eye on… The Sun Devils thrive at home when getting points as they are 9-2 ATS since 1995 as home dogs. This includes an 8-1 ATS mark when getting single digits. The Pac 10 home opener is against the Trojans so USC had better be ready. Arizona St. will no doubt be getting points but the question is how many and if USC is going to stumble early, this could be the place.
Oregon Ducks
Fargo’s Take The Ducks have underachieved each of the past three seasons as this is a team that has had some incredible talent but hasn’t done much with it. They bottomed out last year with their first losing season in 10 years after dropping their final three games including an embarrassing loss to rival Oregon St. There is plenty of talent to turn things around but there are also a lot of missing pieces.
Returning Starters on Offense – 7 The offense slipped last season even with playmakers everywhere and even though those guys return, the problems could continue. The offensive line lost three starters and four seniors and with six of the 10 players in the two-deep chart being freshmen and sophomores, there will be struggles. They will have to mature in a hurry, as the season starts tough.
Returning Starters on Defense – 6 This is not an aggressive styled defense and with linebacker position being very thin and the worst in the conference, that probably won’t change. The secondary will have help with a rover and it is an experienced group that needs to make plays. The defensive line is one of the best around and will anchor the team early on but the rest of the unit will need to respond to be successful.
Schedule The schedule isn’t extremely difficult but it is fairly top heavy. The Ducks start out at improved Houston and following a scrimmage against Montana, Fresno St. and USC come to Autzen Stadium the next two Saturdays. The three big games in the conference against the Trojans, Bears and Beavers are all at home which is very big because of the strong home field edge.
Keep an eye on… The Ducks were lambasted at Oregon St. last season by 29 points so you know the Civil War will have a little extra motivation for Oregon. Three years ago, they lost to the Beavers in Corvallis by 21 points and came home the following season and won by 14 points. Oregon has won the last five meetings at Autzen and has also won nine of the last 11 there.
Washington St. Cougars
Fargo’s Take The Cougars slipped last season with their first non 10 win season in four years. Injuries and inexperience did them in last year resulting in the first losing season in five years. Four of their five wins were by four points or less so the 5-6 record could have been much worse. There is optimism going into 2005 as a lot of returning starters are back but it will be tough getting over the hump.
Returning Starters on Offense – 9 Even though most of the starters are back, there are plenty of questions heading into the fall. The quarterbacks both started half the games last season but both are relatively inexperienced. The running game is non-existent after Jerome Harrison and the offensive line is small and inexperienced. The receivers are some of the best in the Pac 10 but getting them the ball is the issue.
Returning Starters on Defense – 6 The defense allowed 25 or more points in each of its last five games including 38 or more three times so that is going to have to improve dramatically. The pass defense was horrid and there looks to be no end in sight with little experience and depth roaming the secondary. The linebackers are the strength of the unit but they will be getting overworked if the front four can’t get into the offensive backfield as there in not much depth up there.
Schedule The non-conference portion of the schedule is very easy and could help bring along some of the new personnel. After the first five games, the next five games are daunting with UCLA, Cal, USC, Arizona St. and Oregon on the slate in consecutive weeks. It’s possible that a win at Washington in the Apple Bowl could be the difference between a bowl berth or another postseason at home.
Keep an eye on… The Cougars are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games as a home Pac 10 favorite including a 0-3 ATS mark last year. The straight up success of 2001-2003 could still be haunting Washington St. backers with too many points to be lying. The Cougars will be favored against Stanford and possibly UCLA so the trend could continue in 2005.
Oregon St. Beavers
Fargo’s Take The Beavers are the last of the second tier bunch that could finish higher or be as low as seventh. The one positive heading into this season is that Oregon St. won six of its final seven games including a confidence-building win over Notre Dame in the Insight Bowl. However, a lot of what got them there is no longer around and this team is lacking playmakers after having a ton last year on both sides of the ball.
Returning Starters on Offense – 7 Inexperience at quarterback is a cause for concern after three-year starter Derek Anderson’s graduation. However, an even bigger concern is the running game where there is no experience coming back to the unit that ranked dead last in the country in rushing last season and averaged a mere 2.2 ypc. The line is very young and don’t expect SE Mike Hass to have another season like last year.
Returning Starters on Defense – 6 The defense finished in the top 20 in total defense last season but the Beavers were susceptible to the big play as they were only 48th in scoring defense. The linebackers are some of the best in the conference but the front line and secondary needs to rebuild after losing a lot. The potential is there but they will have to mature in a hurry.
Schedule Louisville and Boise St. are part of the non-conference schedule that is usually a killer every season. The good news is that four of the first five games are at home including their first two conference games. USC is not on the schedule which is an added bonus as is facing the bottom three teams in the Pac 10 three weeks straight before traveling to Oregon.
Keep an eye on… Reser Stadium is always kind to the Beavers and since 1998, the Beavers are 13-2-1 ATS when laying single digits at home. All of their conference home games could fit into that parameter this year depending on how the early part of the season plays out. Oregon St. is 31-6 SU at home since the end of 1998, covering 23 of the 32 lined games.
Arizona Wildcats
Fargo’s Take The bottom tier of the conference starts with a much improved Arizona team that was left for dead following a 4-24 losing run. The Wildcats ended last year with wins in two of their final three games and those are some incredible confidence victories heading into this year. In the early part of last season, they played Utah tough for a half and then lost the next two games by three points combined so this is a team going in the right direction.
Returning Starters on Offense – 7 The offense was horrible last season as the Wildcats finished next to last in scoring and 112th in total offense. Arizona had its two best offensive games in two of the last three contests so there is hope for this year. The running game is solid and with a the passing game coming around, teams will be forced to not stack the line like they did last year. It’s a work in progress and will take take.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense played good at times and horrible at times in 2004 so more consistency is the number one key for this year. The unit still made a vast improvement from the prior year and another jump is expected this season. The secondary is one of the best in the conference but for the Wildcats to be successful, they will need to get more pressure on the quarterbacks. The linebackers are also a concern.
Schedule The schedule is a huge problem early on and that could knock the confidence of this team down early. Four of the Wildcats first five games are against top 30 teams with three of those on the road including back-to-back games at Cal and USC. Once the dust settles, four of their final six games are at home and if the mental focus is still there, a good second half is quite possible.
Keep an eye on… Arizona is a cash burning 12-31 ATS since 1994 at home against the Pac 10. Following their brutal stretch to open the season, the Wildcats host Stanford and while stepping down in class will be a positive, coming off those games might take more than one game to recover. This game is going to be a challenge no matter what the spread may be.
Stanford Cardinal
Fargo’s Take Walt Harris comes in to turn around a once powerful program. The Cardinal were 9-2 just three short years ago and while Stanford had flashes of brilliance on both sides of the ball last year, there was no consistency and that is something Harris needs to work on with his new team. This team is a year away from becoming a real player in the conference and in the country.
Returning Starters on Offense – 9 Stanford will incorporate the west coast offense and with a ton of talent returning, scoring points will not be a problem. Only the fullback and tight end need to be replaced but a positive attitude must come first before anything. Stanford was 92nd in total offense and 85th in scoring offense so anything will be an improvement but it should be a significant one.
Returning Starters on Defense – 5 The defense will be more of a challenge as three-fourths of the secondary needs to be replaced but that might not be all that bad. The passing defense was 96th in the country last season so a new look could be a good thing. The defensive line is solid with three seniors but overall, the defense is tabbed as one of the worst in the conference and it will be up to the offense to outscore the opposition.
Schedule The slate isn’t overwhelming but the downfall is that the Cardinal don’t play Washington, the only team behind them. Navy and UC Davis provide a good tune-up for conference action that starts easy and finishes tough. The last four games are brutal with trips to USC and Oregon St. followed by home games against Cal and Notre Dame.
Keep an eye on… Stanford is 17-9 ATS as a single digit home underdog since 1991, winning 14 of those games outright. All five of their lined home games will likely have them as the underdog so the possibility of covering more than half of those is a good possibility. The offense will be able to score and even if the game is over, the backdoor should still always be open.
Washington Huskies
Fargo’s Take Washington went from 10-1 in 2000 to 1-10 in 2004 with a decrease in victories every year and that signaled it was time for a change. Ty Willingham brings in a winning attitude and his success at Stanford before going to Notre Dame should eventually find its way here. It isn’t going to happen overnight but an experienced team should up the win total and provide a solid base for the future.
Returning Starters on Offense – 8 The offense finished last in the country in scoring last season and 103rd in total offense so there is no where to go but up. There is plenty of experience on the offensive line with all five starters having started at least five games in their careers. That will help the running game, which will be fairly deep this year. The only question is who will be handing the ball off and throwing to a young group of receivers as the quarterback position is still up for grabs.
Returning Starters on Defense – 9 The defense had only one good game last season and that was against an even worse San Jose St. team. Things are looking up as nine players come back and there is a lot of potential for the front seven to become one of the best in the Pac 10. The problem lies in the secondary as the cornerback position is very thin and the Huskies will have their hands full in the pass happy conference.
Schedule The schedule couldn’t be better as the Huskies have only four true road games and they don’t leave Seattle until the beginning of October. The bad part is that Cal and Notre Dame are part of that early slate and it’s possible Washington could start the season 2-2 heading into the meat of the conference schedule. They get USC at home along with rival Washington St.
Keep an eye on… The game at UCLA on October 1st will be the Huskies first road game of the season and it just so happens to follow a showdown against Willingham’s former team Notre Dame. Washington is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as a double-digit road dog and on top of that, the Huskies are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games on grass including losses in the last eight contests. This one could be ugly.
This is Part 9 of a 20 Part College Football Preview Series from Matt Fargo. Check out future stories all summer long.