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To understand my theories on playing NFL Season Win
Totals, it helps to understand that I find it easier
to determine teams that will likely perform as
expected or under perform, as opposed to hoping that
teams can overachieve and go injury-free, a near
impossibility in the NFL. With the risk of an injury
to a QB or other key offensive or defensive personnel,
I find that the greater success lies in not risking my
money on the hope that everyone survives the season
unscathed. Rather, it is easier to find value in teams
that are thin at many positions and are one key loss
away from going even farther south than anticipated.
That is why I find UNDERS to be much safer plays when
wagering on NFL Season Win Totals.
Let's move ahead:
Las Vegas has set the Cleveland Browns 2005 Season Win
Total at 4.5, -125.
The Browns 2005 schedule has them at home against
CINN, CHI, DET, TENN, MIA, JAX, PITT and BALT; and
road games against GB, INDY, BALT, HOU, PITT, MINN,
CINN and OAK.
The play is:
Cleveland Browns UNDER 4.5 (One Unit)
The Browns are actually 5th from the top in available
cap space based on 2005 projections with a spare $8.6
million in reserve. With a new coaching staff and
money to spare, optimism should reign on the banks of
Lake Erie. HC Romeo Crennel is a defensive coach with
an outstanding pedigree, coming from the Super Bowl
Champion Patriots, where he proved that unusual
schemes are role players can do as well or better than
high priced free agents. Hell, he even had a wide
receiver playing defensive back in the nickel and dime
package with good success. Unfortunately, Mr. Crennel
and his staff take over a real mess in Cleveland, and
it won't be solved overnight.
When Al Lerner, team owner passed away a couple of
years ago, the decisions that had been made regarding
the front office personnel and player roster had gone
horribly wrong. Butch Davis demanded (and was given,
unfortunately) complete control of football
operations. He ran off anyone that he hadn't hired,
including original Team President Carmen Policy, who
had orchestrated the 49ers rise to power in the past
two decades. His reign was so filled with paranoia and
mistakes that even the secretaries bailed out due to
his desire to run every little aspect of the team.
Players left or were cut who didn't knuckle under his
iron fist. The problem was, Davis had no experience
with the oversight of an NFL franchise having only
been an NFL assistant and college head coach in the
past. This took this Browns team back several steps in
the attempt to compete in a tough AFC. It certainly
didn't help that the new Browns franchise was given
two fewer years to get started in organizing it's
staff, scouts, draft and roster than any other
expansion team had received in NFL history. Hence, Tim
Couch!
Like many other Denver Bronco running backs before
him, Ruben Droughns felt that he was the key to the
Bronco running game and was traded to Cleveland this
spring, thanks in part to the advice of his agent,
Drew Rosenhaus. Droughns came and tried to hold out
for a new deal, which failed miserably. The fact that
coach Crennel announced that the starting job was Lee
Suggs�s to lose probably also didn't help Droughns�
case. Guard Ross Verba also demanded a new contract,
saying that it had been promised to him by Butch
Davis, so Cleveland signed L.J. Shelton from the
Cardinals, a chronic underachiever and cut Verba.
Verba was perceived as a bad teammate by many in the
Cleveland locker room and were glad to see him go.
If any of the starters on the O-Line are lost to
injury, the Browns will be in trouble. RT Ryan Tucker
and C Jeff Faine are returning from knee injuries and
Cleveland just signed T Marcus Spears primarily as a
run-blocker. The running game and keeping Trent Dilfer
upright will be critical for this group which they
have had poor success with in the past, even with a
far more mobile Jeff Garcia under center.
The Browns will be without Kellen Winslow for all of
2005 and possibly longer, even permanently. Backup
tight ends Aaron Shea and Steve Heiden are both decent
ball catchers but questionable run blockers. If
defenses look to double team Braylon Edwards, Antonio
Bryant, or Dennis Northcutt, the TE's may see a
increased role in the offense. Still, the Browns have
little to show from the previous drafts and really
need Edwards to play a big role. The problem is,
Crennel wants to be able to play ball control and run
the football to keep his defense off the field. Very
questionable that Cleveland has the personnel to play
that "grind it out" style like the Steelers have done
for years. There was sentiment that Edwards may have
been a bad choice for a team unwilling and possibly
unable to throw the ball with any regularity, at least
with any success. He was considered the top WR in the
draft by many, however.
The offensive problems will be hugely magnified if
Dilfer goes down and out for any stretch, something
that must be considered when looking at his past
health history. Currently the depth chart lists rookie
Charlie Frye and second-year practice squad regular
Josh Harris as Dilfer�s backups. Because of this
inexperience, the Browns signed veteran Doug Johnson,
who was a backup to Michael Vick in 2003 when he went
down in the preseason with a broken leg. Johnson went
on to set new statistical lows in the NFL history of
quarterbacking. It will be a disaster for the Browns
if any of these three backups see significant playing
time this year, especially with a marginal running
game. Hopefully the O-Line can open enough holes and
rookie Lee Suggs can step up in case Droughns was
exactly what many in the league feel, another product
of the Broncos system. Clinton Portis, anyone?
Defensively, the Browns cleaned house or lost
personnel in Free Agency. Former LB Dwayne Rudd may be
best remembered for his actions by throwing his helmet
in excitement when KC failed on a last-second FG
attempt, only to see him get penalized for removing
his helmet on the field and excessive celebration...
allowing another FG attempt from closer in and costing
Cleveland the game. Other losses were players past
thier prime or overpriced for the rebuilding process
that has started (or tried once again, actually). The
players that the Browns picked up are low cost
band-aids that will hopefully be serviceable until the
cap space and draft allow Crennel to mold the team in
his image.
All told, it is hard to find many bright spots with a
team that is being rebuilt for the third time. When
your most consistent player, your MVP is Phil Dawson,
the kicker... that about says it all. It is likely
that Crennel will steal a game or two with a great
effort and game plan, but there are no sure wins
anywhere to be found with the AFC North improved in
Baltimore and Cincinnati and Pittsburgh expected to be
close to last year's team unless Big Ben should
regress. If you hope that they steal a couple of home
wins against the Bengals and maybe against a
rebuilding Dolphin team, there is really nothing else
on the schedule that looks anywhere near certain.
Either the tough schedule on the road or the improved
division teams will keep the Brownies from those
elusive victories needed to cover the 4.5 total. That
half game cushion from 4 to 5 may not be needed, but I
am very glad to have it. I can't come up with five
games that Cleveland can be competitive in with this
schedule. Too tough on the road and too much
improvement by the AFC North.
UNDER 4.5 (One Unit)
PROJECTION: 3-13 (Very Optimistic)
The final Team Total Play for this season will be on
the Washington Redskins, emailed later this week. This
will coincide with the first NFL Preseason games next
Saturday and Monday, for which I may have a free
selection posted. Stay tuned!
Totals, it helps to understand that I find it easier
to determine teams that will likely perform as
expected or under perform, as opposed to hoping that
teams can overachieve and go injury-free, a near
impossibility in the NFL. With the risk of an injury
to a QB or other key offensive or defensive personnel,
I find that the greater success lies in not risking my
money on the hope that everyone survives the season
unscathed. Rather, it is easier to find value in teams
that are thin at many positions and are one key loss
away from going even farther south than anticipated.
That is why I find UNDERS to be much safer plays when
wagering on NFL Season Win Totals.
Let's move ahead:
Las Vegas has set the Cleveland Browns 2005 Season Win
Total at 4.5, -125.
The Browns 2005 schedule has them at home against
CINN, CHI, DET, TENN, MIA, JAX, PITT and BALT; and
road games against GB, INDY, BALT, HOU, PITT, MINN,
CINN and OAK.
The play is:
Cleveland Browns UNDER 4.5 (One Unit)
The Browns are actually 5th from the top in available
cap space based on 2005 projections with a spare $8.6
million in reserve. With a new coaching staff and
money to spare, optimism should reign on the banks of
Lake Erie. HC Romeo Crennel is a defensive coach with
an outstanding pedigree, coming from the Super Bowl
Champion Patriots, where he proved that unusual
schemes are role players can do as well or better than
high priced free agents. Hell, he even had a wide
receiver playing defensive back in the nickel and dime
package with good success. Unfortunately, Mr. Crennel
and his staff take over a real mess in Cleveland, and
it won't be solved overnight.
When Al Lerner, team owner passed away a couple of
years ago, the decisions that had been made regarding
the front office personnel and player roster had gone
horribly wrong. Butch Davis demanded (and was given,
unfortunately) complete control of football
operations. He ran off anyone that he hadn't hired,
including original Team President Carmen Policy, who
had orchestrated the 49ers rise to power in the past
two decades. His reign was so filled with paranoia and
mistakes that even the secretaries bailed out due to
his desire to run every little aspect of the team.
Players left or were cut who didn't knuckle under his
iron fist. The problem was, Davis had no experience
with the oversight of an NFL franchise having only
been an NFL assistant and college head coach in the
past. This took this Browns team back several steps in
the attempt to compete in a tough AFC. It certainly
didn't help that the new Browns franchise was given
two fewer years to get started in organizing it's
staff, scouts, draft and roster than any other
expansion team had received in NFL history. Hence, Tim
Couch!
Like many other Denver Bronco running backs before
him, Ruben Droughns felt that he was the key to the
Bronco running game and was traded to Cleveland this
spring, thanks in part to the advice of his agent,
Drew Rosenhaus. Droughns came and tried to hold out
for a new deal, which failed miserably. The fact that
coach Crennel announced that the starting job was Lee
Suggs�s to lose probably also didn't help Droughns�
case. Guard Ross Verba also demanded a new contract,
saying that it had been promised to him by Butch
Davis, so Cleveland signed L.J. Shelton from the
Cardinals, a chronic underachiever and cut Verba.
Verba was perceived as a bad teammate by many in the
Cleveland locker room and were glad to see him go.
If any of the starters on the O-Line are lost to
injury, the Browns will be in trouble. RT Ryan Tucker
and C Jeff Faine are returning from knee injuries and
Cleveland just signed T Marcus Spears primarily as a
run-blocker. The running game and keeping Trent Dilfer
upright will be critical for this group which they
have had poor success with in the past, even with a
far more mobile Jeff Garcia under center.
The Browns will be without Kellen Winslow for all of
2005 and possibly longer, even permanently. Backup
tight ends Aaron Shea and Steve Heiden are both decent
ball catchers but questionable run blockers. If
defenses look to double team Braylon Edwards, Antonio
Bryant, or Dennis Northcutt, the TE's may see a
increased role in the offense. Still, the Browns have
little to show from the previous drafts and really
need Edwards to play a big role. The problem is,
Crennel wants to be able to play ball control and run
the football to keep his defense off the field. Very
questionable that Cleveland has the personnel to play
that "grind it out" style like the Steelers have done
for years. There was sentiment that Edwards may have
been a bad choice for a team unwilling and possibly
unable to throw the ball with any regularity, at least
with any success. He was considered the top WR in the
draft by many, however.
The offensive problems will be hugely magnified if
Dilfer goes down and out for any stretch, something
that must be considered when looking at his past
health history. Currently the depth chart lists rookie
Charlie Frye and second-year practice squad regular
Josh Harris as Dilfer�s backups. Because of this
inexperience, the Browns signed veteran Doug Johnson,
who was a backup to Michael Vick in 2003 when he went
down in the preseason with a broken leg. Johnson went
on to set new statistical lows in the NFL history of
quarterbacking. It will be a disaster for the Browns
if any of these three backups see significant playing
time this year, especially with a marginal running
game. Hopefully the O-Line can open enough holes and
rookie Lee Suggs can step up in case Droughns was
exactly what many in the league feel, another product
of the Broncos system. Clinton Portis, anyone?
Defensively, the Browns cleaned house or lost
personnel in Free Agency. Former LB Dwayne Rudd may be
best remembered for his actions by throwing his helmet
in excitement when KC failed on a last-second FG
attempt, only to see him get penalized for removing
his helmet on the field and excessive celebration...
allowing another FG attempt from closer in and costing
Cleveland the game. Other losses were players past
thier prime or overpriced for the rebuilding process
that has started (or tried once again, actually). The
players that the Browns picked up are low cost
band-aids that will hopefully be serviceable until the
cap space and draft allow Crennel to mold the team in
his image.
All told, it is hard to find many bright spots with a
team that is being rebuilt for the third time. When
your most consistent player, your MVP is Phil Dawson,
the kicker... that about says it all. It is likely
that Crennel will steal a game or two with a great
effort and game plan, but there are no sure wins
anywhere to be found with the AFC North improved in
Baltimore and Cincinnati and Pittsburgh expected to be
close to last year's team unless Big Ben should
regress. If you hope that they steal a couple of home
wins against the Bengals and maybe against a
rebuilding Dolphin team, there is really nothing else
on the schedule that looks anywhere near certain.
Either the tough schedule on the road or the improved
division teams will keep the Brownies from those
elusive victories needed to cover the 4.5 total. That
half game cushion from 4 to 5 may not be needed, but I
am very glad to have it. I can't come up with five
games that Cleveland can be competitive in with this
schedule. Too tough on the road and too much
improvement by the AFC North.
UNDER 4.5 (One Unit)
PROJECTION: 3-13 (Very Optimistic)
The final Team Total Play for this season will be on
the Washington Redskins, emailed later this week. This
will coincide with the first NFL Preseason games next
Saturday and Monday, for which I may have a free
selection posted. Stay tuned!