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07/27/2005
Yesterday The Money Picks had another winning day going 2-1. For the month of July our record is 60-28-3.
Todays Plays are all FREE again.
2 Units Baltimore Orioles (Chen) -130
2 Units Cleveland / Oakland over 9 even
3 Units Los Angeles Angels / Toronto Blue Jays over 8.5 -130
2 Units San Diego Padres (Peavy) -132
Game: Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles 7:05 p.m. ET
Sport: MLB - Major League Baseball
Line: Baltimore Orioles (Chen) -130
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles (Chen) -130
Explanation: 2 Units
Arms Must Start: Texas - Chris Young / Baltimore - Bruce Chen
It’s hard to back off the Orioles as the pitching advantage is once again in their favor. Baltimore suffered its first loss to the Rangers in its last 10 meetings at home on Monday but after the win Tuesday improved the Orioles to 10-1 in the last 11 meetings. The Rangers are 3-10 since the All-Star break and they certainly haven’t been the road warriors they were at the beginning of the season as Texas has lost 18 of its last 26 road games.
Bruce Chen must be pretty happy about returning to Camden Yards as five of his last six starts have come on the road with Baltimore losing all five of those road outings. Chen has been spectacular at home this season, going 5-1 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.07 ratio. The Orioles are 6-2 in his eight home starts and he has allowed tow runs or less in six of those starts. The Red Sox were the only team to muster more than three runs. He allowed six earned runs in his last start and the last two times he did that he followed is up with gems, posting a combined 0.78 ERA.
Chris Young has fallen on hard times and what started as a magical season has turned around in a hurry. He threw just 36 innings last season and now that he is over 100 innings in 2005, he could be getting tired. He has allowed four or more runs in three of his last four starts and his ERA is a whopping 9.92 in the month of July. his downfall began in mid-June as his ERA is 7.84 over his last seven starts to go along with a 1.56 WHIP. He was hit hard last season in his only career start against Baltimore.
The Rangers have allowed 6.9 rpg since the All-Star break as the pitching staff has an ERA of 6.32 during this stretch. Baltimore is seven games over .500 at home this season and have won 11 of its last 18. Offense has been the story as the Orioles averaged 5.4 rpg in those 11 victories. The pitching has been right there as well as the opposition averaged a measly 2.0 rpg in the 11 wins. Chen looks to rebound once again and he looks to be in a great spot to do so. Play Baltimore Orioles
Predicted Final: Baltimore Orioles 6 Texas Rangers 4
Game: Cleveland Indians at Oakland Athletics 3:35 p.m. ET
Sport: MLB - Major League Baseball
Line: Total 9 over +100
Prediction: Over 9 +100
Explanation: 2 Units
Arms Must Start: Cleveland - Scott Elarton / Oakland - Danny Haren
A warm afternoon in Oakland, and a nice price being offered by the oddsmakers, gives us a chance to win here by truly going inside the numbers.
First we start with yet another West Coast park in which there is a big difference in scoring between day games and night games – plus 1.6 runs, in this case. And then we can take advantage of some pitchers that also show more weakness in this setting than their overall numbers would indicate.
Danny Haren might become the ace of the Oakland staff in the future; his stuff is really that good. But in his first full Major League season he is already showing signs of wearing down. Instead of his 8-7/4.26 tally, which makes him merely average, how about an ERA of 7.04 in his four July starts? He lasted only 23 innings in those appearances, allowing 30 hits, including four home runs. So why do we get such a fair price for Haren’s bad form? Because the A’s scored 35 runs in those games, and won all of them (Haren got a win and three no-decisions). As such, his struggles have gone largely un-noticed by the betting public.
Meanwhile Scott Elarton, like Haren, shows just average overall numbers – 6-5/4.66. But we do not expect even an average performance from him here. Elarton has struggled mightily on the road, where his ERA is over two full runs higher (5.83), than it is at home (3.82). His daytime ERA (5.51 over 50 2/3 innings) shows a similar negative comparisons with his night ERA (3.92 over 59 1/3 innings) in almost an even amount of work. And like Haren he has current form issues as well, having allowed 10 home runs in his last six starts.
Put this one at night, with the overall numbers of the two starters, and this price would be right. But in the afternoon, with each pitcher showing some problems, we have a bargain. Play the over 9
Predicted Final: Oakland Athletics 6 Cleveland Indians 5
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays 7:07 p.m. ET
Sport: MLB - Major League Baseball
Line: Total 8.5 over -130
Prediction: Over 8.5 -130
Explanation: 3 UNITS BANK ROLL PLAY
Arms Must Start: LA Angels - Bartolo Colon / Toronto - Josh Towers
We get a pretty good number based on the fact that both offenses have been hitting the ball very well while both starting pitchers have been struggling. The Blue Jays are hitting .324 over their last 10 games and their .292 home average is second in the American League behind the Yankees. The Angels are hitting .273 on the road, which is the third best mark in the AL. Even though the recent Los Angeles average isn’t that great, it was mainly due to getting handcuffed by the A’s. The zero runs for the Angels last night actually helps.
Bartolo Colon has an ERA of 8.50 over his last three starts and he simply is not focused right now. He is easily pitching his worst of the season and he is facing a Toronto offense that has been hitting right handed pitching extremely well. Eight of his last 10 starts have all gone over and even though he is an even 5-5 over on the road, the Angels have been giving him a ton of run support, averaging 6.5 rpg including 9.4 rpg over his last five road starts.
Josh Towers pitched well against Seattle in his last outing but he has been extremely inconsistent this season. He has a 5.96 ERA at home this season with an average of over 11 runs being scored in those games. Even with his recent effort against Seattle, he has a 7.41 ERA in his last three starts and four of his last five outings have gone over. After an excellent start to the season, Towers has gone in the other direction, as his ERA in his last six home starts is 7.65.
Colon has a 4.75 ERA in his last five starts in Toronto and with the Blue Jays scoring in bunches at home, it isn’t likely to get any better. Toronto has averaged 6.5 rpg over their last 15 home games with nine of those games going over. They are hitting .332 against righties in their last 10 games. The Angels should have no problem getting some production off Towers as he is allowing a .299 average on the season including .330 at home. This game should easily surpass the total on Wednesday. Play over 8.5
Predicted Final: Los Angeles Angels 6 Toronto Blue Jays 4
Game: St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres 10:05 p.m. ET
Sport: MLB - Major League Baseball
Line: San Diego Padres (Peavy) -132
Prediction: San Diego Padres (Peavy) -132
Explanation: 2 Units
Arms Must Start: St. Louis - Jason Marquis (9-7, 3.88) San Diego - Jake Peavy
We will back the San Diego Padres today because Peavy is 5-1 with a 3.18 ERA in 11 games at home.
Jason Marquis is just 1-4 over his last seven starts, including a defeat to Milwaukee last Thursday. The 26-year-old was touched for nine hits and seven runs -- three earned -- over four innings. Marquis walked two and struck out one in the losing effort.
Marquis is 2-1 with a 6.00 ERA against the Padres in his career. The Staten Island, NY native posted a fortunate win over San Diego on May 8, allowing six hits and four runs over six innings.
San Diego is 29-19 in its friendly confines this season. San Diego took three of four from the Cardinals at Busch Stadium from May 5-8. The Padres have won five of the last eight meetings in this series dating back to September 6, 2004. Play the San Diego Padres
Predicted Final: San Diego Padres 5 St. Louis Cardinals 3
07/27/2005
Yesterday The Money Picks had another winning day going 2-1. For the month of July our record is 60-28-3.
Todays Plays are all FREE again.
2 Units Baltimore Orioles (Chen) -130
2 Units Cleveland / Oakland over 9 even
3 Units Los Angeles Angels / Toronto Blue Jays over 8.5 -130
2 Units San Diego Padres (Peavy) -132
Game: Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles 7:05 p.m. ET
Sport: MLB - Major League Baseball
Line: Baltimore Orioles (Chen) -130
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles (Chen) -130
Explanation: 2 Units
Arms Must Start: Texas - Chris Young / Baltimore - Bruce Chen
It’s hard to back off the Orioles as the pitching advantage is once again in their favor. Baltimore suffered its first loss to the Rangers in its last 10 meetings at home on Monday but after the win Tuesday improved the Orioles to 10-1 in the last 11 meetings. The Rangers are 3-10 since the All-Star break and they certainly haven’t been the road warriors they were at the beginning of the season as Texas has lost 18 of its last 26 road games.
Bruce Chen must be pretty happy about returning to Camden Yards as five of his last six starts have come on the road with Baltimore losing all five of those road outings. Chen has been spectacular at home this season, going 5-1 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.07 ratio. The Orioles are 6-2 in his eight home starts and he has allowed tow runs or less in six of those starts. The Red Sox were the only team to muster more than three runs. He allowed six earned runs in his last start and the last two times he did that he followed is up with gems, posting a combined 0.78 ERA.
Chris Young has fallen on hard times and what started as a magical season has turned around in a hurry. He threw just 36 innings last season and now that he is over 100 innings in 2005, he could be getting tired. He has allowed four or more runs in three of his last four starts and his ERA is a whopping 9.92 in the month of July. his downfall began in mid-June as his ERA is 7.84 over his last seven starts to go along with a 1.56 WHIP. He was hit hard last season in his only career start against Baltimore.
The Rangers have allowed 6.9 rpg since the All-Star break as the pitching staff has an ERA of 6.32 during this stretch. Baltimore is seven games over .500 at home this season and have won 11 of its last 18. Offense has been the story as the Orioles averaged 5.4 rpg in those 11 victories. The pitching has been right there as well as the opposition averaged a measly 2.0 rpg in the 11 wins. Chen looks to rebound once again and he looks to be in a great spot to do so. Play Baltimore Orioles
Predicted Final: Baltimore Orioles 6 Texas Rangers 4
Game: Cleveland Indians at Oakland Athletics 3:35 p.m. ET
Sport: MLB - Major League Baseball
Line: Total 9 over +100
Prediction: Over 9 +100
Explanation: 2 Units
Arms Must Start: Cleveland - Scott Elarton / Oakland - Danny Haren
A warm afternoon in Oakland, and a nice price being offered by the oddsmakers, gives us a chance to win here by truly going inside the numbers.
First we start with yet another West Coast park in which there is a big difference in scoring between day games and night games – plus 1.6 runs, in this case. And then we can take advantage of some pitchers that also show more weakness in this setting than their overall numbers would indicate.
Danny Haren might become the ace of the Oakland staff in the future; his stuff is really that good. But in his first full Major League season he is already showing signs of wearing down. Instead of his 8-7/4.26 tally, which makes him merely average, how about an ERA of 7.04 in his four July starts? He lasted only 23 innings in those appearances, allowing 30 hits, including four home runs. So why do we get such a fair price for Haren’s bad form? Because the A’s scored 35 runs in those games, and won all of them (Haren got a win and three no-decisions). As such, his struggles have gone largely un-noticed by the betting public.
Meanwhile Scott Elarton, like Haren, shows just average overall numbers – 6-5/4.66. But we do not expect even an average performance from him here. Elarton has struggled mightily on the road, where his ERA is over two full runs higher (5.83), than it is at home (3.82). His daytime ERA (5.51 over 50 2/3 innings) shows a similar negative comparisons with his night ERA (3.92 over 59 1/3 innings) in almost an even amount of work. And like Haren he has current form issues as well, having allowed 10 home runs in his last six starts.
Put this one at night, with the overall numbers of the two starters, and this price would be right. But in the afternoon, with each pitcher showing some problems, we have a bargain. Play the over 9
Predicted Final: Oakland Athletics 6 Cleveland Indians 5
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays 7:07 p.m. ET
Sport: MLB - Major League Baseball
Line: Total 8.5 over -130
Prediction: Over 8.5 -130
Explanation: 3 UNITS BANK ROLL PLAY
Arms Must Start: LA Angels - Bartolo Colon / Toronto - Josh Towers
We get a pretty good number based on the fact that both offenses have been hitting the ball very well while both starting pitchers have been struggling. The Blue Jays are hitting .324 over their last 10 games and their .292 home average is second in the American League behind the Yankees. The Angels are hitting .273 on the road, which is the third best mark in the AL. Even though the recent Los Angeles average isn’t that great, it was mainly due to getting handcuffed by the A’s. The zero runs for the Angels last night actually helps.
Bartolo Colon has an ERA of 8.50 over his last three starts and he simply is not focused right now. He is easily pitching his worst of the season and he is facing a Toronto offense that has been hitting right handed pitching extremely well. Eight of his last 10 starts have all gone over and even though he is an even 5-5 over on the road, the Angels have been giving him a ton of run support, averaging 6.5 rpg including 9.4 rpg over his last five road starts.
Josh Towers pitched well against Seattle in his last outing but he has been extremely inconsistent this season. He has a 5.96 ERA at home this season with an average of over 11 runs being scored in those games. Even with his recent effort against Seattle, he has a 7.41 ERA in his last three starts and four of his last five outings have gone over. After an excellent start to the season, Towers has gone in the other direction, as his ERA in his last six home starts is 7.65.
Colon has a 4.75 ERA in his last five starts in Toronto and with the Blue Jays scoring in bunches at home, it isn’t likely to get any better. Toronto has averaged 6.5 rpg over their last 15 home games with nine of those games going over. They are hitting .332 against righties in their last 10 games. The Angels should have no problem getting some production off Towers as he is allowing a .299 average on the season including .330 at home. This game should easily surpass the total on Wednesday. Play over 8.5
Predicted Final: Los Angeles Angels 6 Toronto Blue Jays 4
Game: St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres 10:05 p.m. ET
Sport: MLB - Major League Baseball
Line: San Diego Padres (Peavy) -132
Prediction: San Diego Padres (Peavy) -132
Explanation: 2 Units
Arms Must Start: St. Louis - Jason Marquis (9-7, 3.88) San Diego - Jake Peavy
We will back the San Diego Padres today because Peavy is 5-1 with a 3.18 ERA in 11 games at home.
Jason Marquis is just 1-4 over his last seven starts, including a defeat to Milwaukee last Thursday. The 26-year-old was touched for nine hits and seven runs -- three earned -- over four innings. Marquis walked two and struck out one in the losing effort.
Marquis is 2-1 with a 6.00 ERA against the Padres in his career. The Staten Island, NY native posted a fortunate win over San Diego on May 8, allowing six hits and four runs over six innings.
San Diego is 29-19 in its friendly confines this season. San Diego took three of four from the Cardinals at Busch Stadium from May 5-8. The Padres have won five of the last eight meetings in this series dating back to September 6, 2004. Play the San Diego Padres
Predicted Final: San Diego Padres 5 St. Louis Cardinals 3