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2005 MAC Preview
The MAC continues to gain respect across the country as teams such as Miami, Toledo, Bowling Green and Northern Illinois have all grabbed national attention. The departure of Marshall to Conference USA would have hurt about four years ago but there is an abundance of teams that took the spotlight away from the Thundering Herd to make this one of the best mid-major conferences in the country. The aforementioned four teams will be vying for the championship in 2005.
MAC East
Bowling Green Falcons
Fargo’s Take The Falcons make the move over from the West to the East and will give Miami a challenge for the division crown. Bowling Green will be a very hungry team this year after throwing away a chance to play in the MAC Championship last season after blowing a huge lead at Toledo. The Falcons were one of the best in turnover margin last season and they have been on the plus side in four of the last five years so keeping that pace should not be an issue.
Returning Starters on Offense – 6 One of the best offenses in the country last season returns most every playmaker including All-American quarterback Omar Jacobs. This guy was unstoppable last year and while trying to match the numbers from last season will be tough, he should have another outstanding season. The offensive line needs to replace three starters but the two coming back are both all-conference players and there is plenty of experience in the new starters.
Returning Starters on Defense – 6 This is a very experienced defense and will once again be very tough against the run. The stats showed that the Falcons finished 104th in passing defense last year but that is very deceiving. Teams had to play catch-up and were forced to throw the ball more in garbage time. Bowling Green led the MAC in pass efficiency defense and with four seniors in the secondary, they will be even stronger this time around.
Schedule The Falcons play their first three games on the road this year with tough games at Wisconsin and Boise St., a game in which 200 points could be scored. The next six games are all easy wins but then the division deciding games loom with a trip to Miami followed by a visit from Toledo. The Falcons should be undefeated in MAC play coming into those games with revenge on their side in both contests.
Keep an eye on… The non-conference part of the schedule is tough with the Badgers and Broncos waiting. Bowling Green is 9-1 ATS in last 10 non-conference games but a lot of those games were against teams not ready for the Falcons. They are no longer flying under the radar and no one is going to take them lightly. They will be dogs in the two big games mentioned above and those are two of the toughest places to go into and snatch a victory.
Miami Ohio RedHawks
Fargo’s Take Miami is the team to beat as the RedHawks are reigning division champions while they bring back a ton of starters. Miami slipped somewhat last season with an 8-5 record following a magical 2003 campaign. The RedHawks should definitely improve on that record as the schedule is in their favor along with some of the best talent in the conference. A new coach is roaming the sidelines but Shane Montgomery has been the offensive coordinator the last four years so the transition will be smooth.
Returning Starters on Offense – 8 The scoring offense finished 22nd in the country last season and should improve even more this year. The offensive line brings back four starters, which will help ease in a new starting tailback. Quarterback Josh Betts finished the season strong last year and will get great protection from his veteran line and the return of receiver Martin Nance, the 2003 record holder in receiving years, will help ease the loss of Michael Larkin.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 This will be one of the best defenses in the conference despite the fact that only one assistant coach on that side of the ball is coming back. Nine seniors will be starting for the defense that finished 34th in total defense in 2004. They allowed 88 points to Michigan and Cincinnati but allowed only 19.1 ppg in their other 11 games.
Schedule The schedule is not overwhelming at all and certainly gets better after the opener at Ohio St. Rival Cincinnati is at home this season while Temple is the only other non-conference game on the slate. The MAC schedule couldn’t be better as they don’t play Toledo and get Bowling Green at home. The toughest road game is at Northern Illinois while the other three road tilts are all easy wins.
Keep an eye on… Miami is 8-1 ATS at a home favorite the past two seasons with six of those ****** being as double digit home chalk. It’s obvious the big lines don’t bother Miami, as the RedHawks are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 as double-digit favorites and 10-2 ATS when laying less than 20 points. We can expect four games this year where they will be laying more than 10 and their first will be against Central Michigan, which follows the game at Ohio St.
Kent St. Golden Flashes
Fargo’s Take Kent St. will need new quarterback Michael Machen to step up right away as the loss of Joshua Cribbs will definitely sting. One thing the Golden Flashes have going for them is the fact that they won their final four games last season and even though the competition wasn’t much, it provides a great mental boost heading into this year. Spring practices were reported to be very good and confidence seems to remain in place heading into the fall.
Returning Starters on Offense – 5 Replacing Cribbs will be next to impossible but Machen stepped up in the spring and seized control of the offense. He will have a very experienced offensive line protecting him, which will also help in breaking in a new tailback. His receivers are solid and experienced so that will also help early on in the season.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 This was the top ranked defense in the MAC last year and 17th in the country in total defense. The unit was able to stop the run and defend the pass so there is no big weakness heading into 2005. The linebackers and the defensive line are two of the best units in the conference and it will be up to the entire defense to hold strong until the offense comes around.
Schedule A trip to Michigan St. and a visit from Miami highlight the first three games on the schedule. The conference portion is the best it can possibly be with the three toughest games all taking place in Kent. SE Missouri St. and Navy are the other non-conference games and with a relatively easy road schedule, a third place finish is likely as challenging for the division crown will be difficult.
Keep an eye on… The Golden Flashes play solid when in the dog role as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when getting points. They will no doubt be getting points on a few occasions this year and with a solid defense to keep them in games, more of the same success should transpire. They have covered five of the last seven as home dogs and will be getting points from Miami, Northern Illinois and Bowling Green when they visit.
Akron Zips
Fargo’s Take Like Kent St., the Zips will have to replace a four year starter at quarterback but unlike the Golden Flashes, they don’t have an offensive line to provide support. The defense will be average at best so there isn’t a chance for that unit to carry the team early on. Akron is coming off its best season ever at the division I-A level but surpassing or even matching last year’s success will be tough.
Returning Starters on Offense – 5 It’s obvious that the loss of quarterback Charlie Frye is the most serious but a close second is the offensive line that needs to replace four starters. A new quarterback and offensive line spells trouble. Brett Biggs will need to duplicate his efforts in the backfield for this offense to go anywhere. Despite an experienced unit last year, the Zips were just 88th in the country in total offense and 62nd in scoring offense.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense finished 87th or worse in the four major defensive categories last year and with only four seniors starting in 2005, they might be taking a step backwards. The secondary is the only strength with all four starters coming back but the Zips did finish 8th in the MAC in pass efficiency last year so it isn’t a dominating unit. The defensive line is the weakest in the conference.
Schedule The schedule could be worse but it could be better as well. Visits to Purdue and Middle Tennessee start the season followed by the home opener against Northern Illinois. The Zips travel to Miami and Bowling Green and the only significant break in the schedule comes at season’s end with three games that can be won. By then however, it might be too late and the season could already be over.
Keep an eye on… Akron is 7-0 ATS since 1995 when getting more than two touchdowns at home. That will likely happen once this year when Northern Illinois comes calling. The line will depend on how bad the Zips get beat at Purdue and Middle Tennessee so we could be getting some value if it goes over 14 points. The Huskies face Miami the following week so a look ahead is a definite possibility.
Ohio Bobcats
Fargo’s Take A high profile head coach shows that Ohio is looking to turn around a football program that has just two winning seasons in the last 23 years. The transformation into a winner isn’t going to happen overnight but a couple years down the road might have the Bobcats competing for a conference title. Frank Solich knows how to win and that attitude along with improvements in recruiting has Ohio fans looking toward the future but that future doesn’t include 2005.
Returning Starters on Offense – 6 Ohio struggled last season on offense as the Bobcats went to a one back passing attack after using the option in years past. It didn’t work and Solich will be looking to obtain more balance this season and that means running more option. The offense ranked 102nd in scoring and 105th in total offense last year and it must replace 3/5 of the offensive line that allowed a whopping 52 sacks a season ago.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense finished just outside the top twenty last year and with seven players returning, an improvement is possible. The Bobcats have one of the best secondaries in the conference along with a solid bunch of linebackers. The defense is going from a 3-4 to a 4-3 and that should help up front as stopping the run is going to be the deciding factor in how the defense performs overall.
Schedule A 0-3 start is almost a guarantee with tough games against Northwestern, Pitt and Virginia Tech. The good news is that the MAC road slate isn’t impossible with Bowling Green being the only definite loss. However, the home portion ends with visits from Toledo and Miami so any progress the Bobcats make in October will be for naught.
Keep an eye on… Ohio is only 3-12 ATS as a road favorite since 1997 and a visit to Buffalo on October 29th might put them in that role once again. The Bobcats have been double-digit favorites the last two trips to face the Bulls and they lost both games outright by a combined score of 70-17and losing the ****** by a combined 82 points. Buffalo isn’t going to be very solid but it could be in a good spot.
Buffalo Bulls
Fargo’s Take Buffalo is going to be an improving team in 2005 but whether that results in more wins remains to be seen. The Bulls have a lot of experience coming back and if they can find a quarterback to lead the offense, Buffalo could be the surprise of the conference. However, the signal caller is not in place and until that happens, Buffalo is still at the bottom of the standings. Even if they do improve, the rest of the MAC is improving at a faster pace so moving forward will be a challenge.
Returning Starters on Offense – 6 The success of this unit all comes down to the quarterback. The Bulls finished 113th in passing offense last season and ended with just five passing touchdowns compared to 15 interceptions. The running game is decent thanks to an offensive line with three seniors and one junior but that isn’t going to carry the Bulls over the top. With all of the great MAC offenses around, Buffalo simply cannot keep up.
Returning Starters on Defense – 9 The defense improved significantly last year, lowering its scoring defense average by 5.2 ppg and its total defense by 74 ypg from the previous year. The Bulls still finished 94th in scoring defense but with nine players back and in the second year of the 4-2-5 defense, things could get better. The defensive line is one of the best in the MAC but the secondary is where the most improvements need to be made.
Schedule Buffalo starts out with three games against the Big East and while they aren’t against the best in the conference, they will be hard pressed to keep any close. Following games against Akron and Western Michigan, the Bulls face Bowling Green, Toledo and Miami in a span of four weeks. There is no sure win on the schedule but there are four games that could go either way.
Keep an eye on… This is a horrible road team. Buffalo is 5-12 ATS on the road when getting three or more touchdowns and has lost its last five when getting two or more touchdowns. The Bulls have won only three of 39 road games since joining division 1-A and have not covered in 10 of their last 13 road games. I expect more of the same in 2005.
MAC West
Toledo Rockets
Fargo’s Take The Rockets will look to defend their MAC title and this could be one of the best Toledo teams ever. Toledo returns a ton of talent including one of the best and most consistent quarterbacks in the country. Both coordinators need to be replaced but there isn’t going to be a lot of changes of schemes, especially on offense, since there is no reason to fix something that isn’t broken. The Rockets have won 30 of their last 31 at home but only have five games at home this season.
Returning Starters on Offense – 6 Toledo was 11th in total offense and 15th in scoring offense last season and with quarterback Bruce Gradkowski returning, the offense expects to not miss a beat. The biggest shoes to fill won’t be all-time leading receiver Lance Moore but will be All-American tackle Nick Kaczur. The good news is that three starters are back from that offensive line along with two quality running backs.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 A very young defense last season got some great experience and should get better in 2005. The total defense was 89th in the nation and even though they allowed 31.1 ppg last season, most of that damage was done in the first two games. That average drops to 25.3 ppg when those first two are factored out. The defense is going to have a lot of looks this year, which will be beneficial in improving the unit.
Schedule Only five home games on the schedule hurts but the road games aren’t overwhelming. A non-conference game at Fresno St. and the finale at Bowling Green are the two biggest tests but both can be won. At the same time, both can be lost. Toledo should be 8-1 at the very least before its final two games that will likely decide the champions of both divisions.
Keep an eye on… Toledo has one of the best home field advantages in the conference and in the country for that matter. The Rockets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of a touchdown or more and we should see that scenario three times this season against Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan and Buffalo. Toledo has been at least 3-1 ATS as a home chalk in five of the last six years.
Northern Illinois Huskies
Fargo’s Take Unfortunately for the Huskies, they are the second best team in the MAC West and until they can beat Toledo, this is where they will remain. Northern Illinois has dropped 11 straight meetings against the Rockets and this isn’t going to be the year it snaps the streak, as they have to travel to the Glass Bowl. As opposed to years past, the Huskies aren’t going to sneak up on anyone.
Returning Starters on Offense – 6 The running game of the Huskies is one of the best in the nation with two backs that could start for most teams in the country. They do have an inexperienced quarterback but Phil Horvath has taken a good number of snaps and the quality of the running game will ease him along. Three seniors and two juniors anchor a small but experienced line.
Returning Starters on Defense – 6 Six players return but this is still a young defense with only five seniors on the two-deep chart. Last season, the Huskies yielded the most yards per carry on the ground in five years but that should improve as the defensive line has the most depth on that side of the ball. This season, the secondary is the question mark with the departure of two key players. There is just one senior in the entire defensive backfield and depth is an issue.
Schedule Well, it all comes down to one game and it’s already circled on the calendar. A trip to Toledo on November 16th will likely decide the division as long as both teams hold serve. The Huskies start the season with two Big Ten games, the first being a trip to the Big House to face Michigan. Northern Illinois doesn’t play Bowling Green and it gets Miami at home early in the year.
Keep an eye on… The Huskies are 9-3 ATS since 1999 as a single digit favorite and they will get a chance to increase that when Miami comes to town October 5th. A win over the RedHawks means a showdown with Toledo will likely be for all the marbles since the four games in-between are all against cupcakes. If for some reason Miami comes in a small favorite, the RedHawks are 1-6 ATS their last seven as a road favorite of less than a touchdown.
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Fargo’s Take The offense in Ypsilanti will be a powerful unit and there will be a lot of high scoring games because the defense is going to struggle once again as well. The Eagles finished .500 in the MAC last season but losses to Eastern Illinois and Idaho by a combined seven points were tough to take and prevented Eastern Michigan from having a winning record overall. One big variable is that the Eagles have one of the best kickers in the country with Andrew Wellock.
Returning Starters on Offense – 7 The unit finished 21st in the country in total offense and averaged 12.7 more ppg than it did in 2003. That is a huge jump and with all of the skill position players returning, another successful offensive season is pretty much a guarantee. The Eagles scored 31 or more points six times last year after accomplishing that only once in the previous season.
Returning Starters on Defense – 5 The problem was that the defense allowed 31 or more points in 10 of the Eagles’ 11 games and they were next to lasting the country in points allowed with 41.6 ppg. That has to decrease dramatically for 2005 to be a successful season but it is going to be difficult to achieve. Only five players return and while that might not be a bad thing based on last year’s numbers, there is not a lot of depth or experience to fill the holes.
Schedule Eastern Michigan will be hard pressed to make a run at the top of the conference as it has just four true home games. Three can be won but the road slate includes Cincinnati, Michigan, Toledo and Northern Illinois, which are four likely losses. The neutral site game against Western Michigan will likely determine whether or not a 6-5 season will happen but the last three games on the schedule can and should be won.
Keep an eye on… The first three games of the season are against non-conference opponents and the Eagles are 7-40 SU and 8-25-1 ATS since 1990, including 0-3 ATS as a favorite, when playing outside the conference. This could be the year that they finally break though as a home date against UL-Lafayette on September 10th is the best chance for a win. The Eagles will be a small home chalk and should be able to pull it out.
Central Michigan Chippewas
Fargo’s Take A good offense and a bad defense will be the common theme for the bottom teams in the MAC West and Central Michigan is no exception. After a very slow start, the offense started to show signs of life in the latter part of the season and that bodes well heading into 2005. Three of the wins last season were by a combined seven points while two of the losses were also by a combined seven points. A 6-5 finish or a 1-10 finish were both very possible last year and now it’s time to get over that hump.
Returning Starters on Offense – 7 The Chips have one of the best tailbacks in the MAC with Jerry Seymour and now that quarterback Kent Smith is more comfortable in the spread offense, the pressure can be taken off the running game. After averaging 18.2 ppg in the first six games, Central Michigan averaged 30.2 in the final five games and even though a 4 OT game skewed the numbers somewhat, it was definitely a move in the right direction.
Returning Starters on Defense – 6 See Eastern Michigan. The Chips are in the same boat with an offense that is going to produce and a defense that is going to give up a ton. The scoring defense and total defense both finished 105th in the country last season and after allowing no more than 27 points in their first four games, they allowed that many in six of their final seven games. The secondary is young and comes into 2005 as the worst unit in the MAC.
Schedule The schedule isn’t terrible with the game at Penn St. being the only definite non-conference loss. They host Indiana and are at Army so those can be taken. The MAC road games are soft with the exception of a trip to Miami in the second week of the season. Home games against Toledo and Northern Illinois are by no means easy or even winnable but at least they are at home.
Keep an eye on… This team is going to score and keep some games close that they probably shouldn’t. Central Michigan is 7-1 ATS since 2001 when getting three touchdowns or more and we are likely going to see that in two of its first three games at Miami and at Penn St. None of those ATS wins have been outright wins and it won’t happen this year either but the backdoor is always going to be open.
Western Michigan Broncos
Fargo’s Take The Broncos have fallen considerably. This was one of the most explosive offenses in the country five years ago and the man that led that unit on the sidelines is back as the head coach as Bill Cubit takes over the program. This is going to be a fun team to watch once again but only if you aren’t a lover of defense. With 15 starters coming back from last season, a move in the right direction is possible but it will be a small move if that.
Returning Starters on Offense – 9 A lot experience returns with eight juniors and seniors on the starting unit. The problem last season was a falloff at the end of the season as the offense scored no more than 21 points in its final four games after averaging 26.4 ppg in its first seven games and that included one shutout at Virginia Tech. A new system was needed and Cubit had some explosive offenses when he was the offensive coordinator in the 90’s.
Returning Starters on Defense – 6 See Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan. This is the third team in the MAC West that is going to struggle on defense. Western Michigan finished 115th in total defense and 114th in scoring defense last year and the ppg average goes from 39.6 ppg to 43.6 ppg when throwing out the zero points allowed against 1-AA Tenn.-Martin. There are just three seniors on the unit and another long season is expected.
Schedule The Broncos play five home games this season and all five have a chance to be won depending on how the defense progresses throughout the season. The slate starts with games at Virginia and Toledo followed by four games against the two worst teams in the MAC, Temple and 1-AA Southern Illinois. Western Michigan only has three true conference road games but they are Toledo, Bowling Green and Northern Illinois so there isn’t much of a break. At least they miss Miami.
Keep an eye on… The Broncos are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games when getting double digits going back to 2003. Western Michigan will be in that spot in the first two games of the season and even though the offense will be better, the offenses they are facing are even stronger and the Broncos don’t have the defense to keep pace. Two blowouts are expected early.
Ball St. Cardinals
Fargo’s Take The Cardinals could be in for another long season and unlike most MAC teams, the offense is not going to be very productive. They lost their best playmaker to the NFL a year early and the defense is still very young and very inexperienced. The win totals have decreased in each of the last three seasons but Ball St. is in rebuilding mode and given the youth on the squad, this could be a team that could make a run down the road but it won’t be this year.
Returning Starters on Offense – 6 The offense took a huge hit when receiver Dante Ridgeway declared early for the NFL draft. The Cardinals finished 98th in scoring offense and 96th in scoring defense in 2004 and it is going to be a slow process to improve those rankings. The one positive is an offensive line anchored by three seniors that will need to open holes for a new starting tailback after last season’s leading rusher was dismissed from the team.
Returning Starters on Defense – 9 The defense is young with eight sophomores and juniors on the first team. The unit allowed 35 or more points seven times last season and with the firepower in the conference this season, that probably will be matched again this year. The defense finished 100th or worse in all four major categories and opponents’ scoring has increased in each of the last four seasons topping out at 36.8 ppg last season.
Schedule The schedule is brutal once again with non-conference games at Iowa, Auburn and Boston College. The Cardinals have just four home games this season and the first two are against Bowling Green and Toledo. The season will likely start out with eight straight losses before the final three-game stretch that might salvage a couple of wins.
Keep an eye on… Ball St. is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games when getting double digits and that trend will likely continue as the defense is not good and the offense will be progressing very slowly. The first four games on the schedule will find the Cardinals being a dog of 10 or more and it will be very surprising if any of those games are close. If those games were on the back end of the schedule, it might be a different story.
This is Part 7 of a 20 Part College Football Preview Series from Matt Fargo. Check out future stories all summer long.
The MAC continues to gain respect across the country as teams such as Miami, Toledo, Bowling Green and Northern Illinois have all grabbed national attention. The departure of Marshall to Conference USA would have hurt about four years ago but there is an abundance of teams that took the spotlight away from the Thundering Herd to make this one of the best mid-major conferences in the country. The aforementioned four teams will be vying for the championship in 2005.
MAC East
Bowling Green Falcons
Fargo’s Take The Falcons make the move over from the West to the East and will give Miami a challenge for the division crown. Bowling Green will be a very hungry team this year after throwing away a chance to play in the MAC Championship last season after blowing a huge lead at Toledo. The Falcons were one of the best in turnover margin last season and they have been on the plus side in four of the last five years so keeping that pace should not be an issue.
Returning Starters on Offense – 6 One of the best offenses in the country last season returns most every playmaker including All-American quarterback Omar Jacobs. This guy was unstoppable last year and while trying to match the numbers from last season will be tough, he should have another outstanding season. The offensive line needs to replace three starters but the two coming back are both all-conference players and there is plenty of experience in the new starters.
Returning Starters on Defense – 6 This is a very experienced defense and will once again be very tough against the run. The stats showed that the Falcons finished 104th in passing defense last year but that is very deceiving. Teams had to play catch-up and were forced to throw the ball more in garbage time. Bowling Green led the MAC in pass efficiency defense and with four seniors in the secondary, they will be even stronger this time around.
Schedule The Falcons play their first three games on the road this year with tough games at Wisconsin and Boise St., a game in which 200 points could be scored. The next six games are all easy wins but then the division deciding games loom with a trip to Miami followed by a visit from Toledo. The Falcons should be undefeated in MAC play coming into those games with revenge on their side in both contests.
Keep an eye on… The non-conference part of the schedule is tough with the Badgers and Broncos waiting. Bowling Green is 9-1 ATS in last 10 non-conference games but a lot of those games were against teams not ready for the Falcons. They are no longer flying under the radar and no one is going to take them lightly. They will be dogs in the two big games mentioned above and those are two of the toughest places to go into and snatch a victory.
Miami Ohio RedHawks
Fargo’s Take Miami is the team to beat as the RedHawks are reigning division champions while they bring back a ton of starters. Miami slipped somewhat last season with an 8-5 record following a magical 2003 campaign. The RedHawks should definitely improve on that record as the schedule is in their favor along with some of the best talent in the conference. A new coach is roaming the sidelines but Shane Montgomery has been the offensive coordinator the last four years so the transition will be smooth.
Returning Starters on Offense – 8 The scoring offense finished 22nd in the country last season and should improve even more this year. The offensive line brings back four starters, which will help ease in a new starting tailback. Quarterback Josh Betts finished the season strong last year and will get great protection from his veteran line and the return of receiver Martin Nance, the 2003 record holder in receiving years, will help ease the loss of Michael Larkin.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 This will be one of the best defenses in the conference despite the fact that only one assistant coach on that side of the ball is coming back. Nine seniors will be starting for the defense that finished 34th in total defense in 2004. They allowed 88 points to Michigan and Cincinnati but allowed only 19.1 ppg in their other 11 games.
Schedule The schedule is not overwhelming at all and certainly gets better after the opener at Ohio St. Rival Cincinnati is at home this season while Temple is the only other non-conference game on the slate. The MAC schedule couldn’t be better as they don’t play Toledo and get Bowling Green at home. The toughest road game is at Northern Illinois while the other three road tilts are all easy wins.
Keep an eye on… Miami is 8-1 ATS at a home favorite the past two seasons with six of those ****** being as double digit home chalk. It’s obvious the big lines don’t bother Miami, as the RedHawks are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 as double-digit favorites and 10-2 ATS when laying less than 20 points. We can expect four games this year where they will be laying more than 10 and their first will be against Central Michigan, which follows the game at Ohio St.
Kent St. Golden Flashes
Fargo’s Take Kent St. will need new quarterback Michael Machen to step up right away as the loss of Joshua Cribbs will definitely sting. One thing the Golden Flashes have going for them is the fact that they won their final four games last season and even though the competition wasn’t much, it provides a great mental boost heading into this year. Spring practices were reported to be very good and confidence seems to remain in place heading into the fall.
Returning Starters on Offense – 5 Replacing Cribbs will be next to impossible but Machen stepped up in the spring and seized control of the offense. He will have a very experienced offensive line protecting him, which will also help in breaking in a new tailback. His receivers are solid and experienced so that will also help early on in the season.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 This was the top ranked defense in the MAC last year and 17th in the country in total defense. The unit was able to stop the run and defend the pass so there is no big weakness heading into 2005. The linebackers and the defensive line are two of the best units in the conference and it will be up to the entire defense to hold strong until the offense comes around.
Schedule A trip to Michigan St. and a visit from Miami highlight the first three games on the schedule. The conference portion is the best it can possibly be with the three toughest games all taking place in Kent. SE Missouri St. and Navy are the other non-conference games and with a relatively easy road schedule, a third place finish is likely as challenging for the division crown will be difficult.
Keep an eye on… The Golden Flashes play solid when in the dog role as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when getting points. They will no doubt be getting points on a few occasions this year and with a solid defense to keep them in games, more of the same success should transpire. They have covered five of the last seven as home dogs and will be getting points from Miami, Northern Illinois and Bowling Green when they visit.
Akron Zips
Fargo’s Take Like Kent St., the Zips will have to replace a four year starter at quarterback but unlike the Golden Flashes, they don’t have an offensive line to provide support. The defense will be average at best so there isn’t a chance for that unit to carry the team early on. Akron is coming off its best season ever at the division I-A level but surpassing or even matching last year’s success will be tough.
Returning Starters on Offense – 5 It’s obvious that the loss of quarterback Charlie Frye is the most serious but a close second is the offensive line that needs to replace four starters. A new quarterback and offensive line spells trouble. Brett Biggs will need to duplicate his efforts in the backfield for this offense to go anywhere. Despite an experienced unit last year, the Zips were just 88th in the country in total offense and 62nd in scoring offense.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense finished 87th or worse in the four major defensive categories last year and with only four seniors starting in 2005, they might be taking a step backwards. The secondary is the only strength with all four starters coming back but the Zips did finish 8th in the MAC in pass efficiency last year so it isn’t a dominating unit. The defensive line is the weakest in the conference.
Schedule The schedule could be worse but it could be better as well. Visits to Purdue and Middle Tennessee start the season followed by the home opener against Northern Illinois. The Zips travel to Miami and Bowling Green and the only significant break in the schedule comes at season’s end with three games that can be won. By then however, it might be too late and the season could already be over.
Keep an eye on… Akron is 7-0 ATS since 1995 when getting more than two touchdowns at home. That will likely happen once this year when Northern Illinois comes calling. The line will depend on how bad the Zips get beat at Purdue and Middle Tennessee so we could be getting some value if it goes over 14 points. The Huskies face Miami the following week so a look ahead is a definite possibility.
Ohio Bobcats
Fargo’s Take A high profile head coach shows that Ohio is looking to turn around a football program that has just two winning seasons in the last 23 years. The transformation into a winner isn’t going to happen overnight but a couple years down the road might have the Bobcats competing for a conference title. Frank Solich knows how to win and that attitude along with improvements in recruiting has Ohio fans looking toward the future but that future doesn’t include 2005.
Returning Starters on Offense – 6 Ohio struggled last season on offense as the Bobcats went to a one back passing attack after using the option in years past. It didn’t work and Solich will be looking to obtain more balance this season and that means running more option. The offense ranked 102nd in scoring and 105th in total offense last year and it must replace 3/5 of the offensive line that allowed a whopping 52 sacks a season ago.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense finished just outside the top twenty last year and with seven players returning, an improvement is possible. The Bobcats have one of the best secondaries in the conference along with a solid bunch of linebackers. The defense is going from a 3-4 to a 4-3 and that should help up front as stopping the run is going to be the deciding factor in how the defense performs overall.
Schedule A 0-3 start is almost a guarantee with tough games against Northwestern, Pitt and Virginia Tech. The good news is that the MAC road slate isn’t impossible with Bowling Green being the only definite loss. However, the home portion ends with visits from Toledo and Miami so any progress the Bobcats make in October will be for naught.
Keep an eye on… Ohio is only 3-12 ATS as a road favorite since 1997 and a visit to Buffalo on October 29th might put them in that role once again. The Bobcats have been double-digit favorites the last two trips to face the Bulls and they lost both games outright by a combined score of 70-17and losing the ****** by a combined 82 points. Buffalo isn’t going to be very solid but it could be in a good spot.
Buffalo Bulls
Fargo’s Take Buffalo is going to be an improving team in 2005 but whether that results in more wins remains to be seen. The Bulls have a lot of experience coming back and if they can find a quarterback to lead the offense, Buffalo could be the surprise of the conference. However, the signal caller is not in place and until that happens, Buffalo is still at the bottom of the standings. Even if they do improve, the rest of the MAC is improving at a faster pace so moving forward will be a challenge.
Returning Starters on Offense – 6 The success of this unit all comes down to the quarterback. The Bulls finished 113th in passing offense last season and ended with just five passing touchdowns compared to 15 interceptions. The running game is decent thanks to an offensive line with three seniors and one junior but that isn’t going to carry the Bulls over the top. With all of the great MAC offenses around, Buffalo simply cannot keep up.
Returning Starters on Defense – 9 The defense improved significantly last year, lowering its scoring defense average by 5.2 ppg and its total defense by 74 ypg from the previous year. The Bulls still finished 94th in scoring defense but with nine players back and in the second year of the 4-2-5 defense, things could get better. The defensive line is one of the best in the MAC but the secondary is where the most improvements need to be made.
Schedule Buffalo starts out with three games against the Big East and while they aren’t against the best in the conference, they will be hard pressed to keep any close. Following games against Akron and Western Michigan, the Bulls face Bowling Green, Toledo and Miami in a span of four weeks. There is no sure win on the schedule but there are four games that could go either way.
Keep an eye on… This is a horrible road team. Buffalo is 5-12 ATS on the road when getting three or more touchdowns and has lost its last five when getting two or more touchdowns. The Bulls have won only three of 39 road games since joining division 1-A and have not covered in 10 of their last 13 road games. I expect more of the same in 2005.
MAC West
Toledo Rockets
Fargo’s Take The Rockets will look to defend their MAC title and this could be one of the best Toledo teams ever. Toledo returns a ton of talent including one of the best and most consistent quarterbacks in the country. Both coordinators need to be replaced but there isn’t going to be a lot of changes of schemes, especially on offense, since there is no reason to fix something that isn’t broken. The Rockets have won 30 of their last 31 at home but only have five games at home this season.
Returning Starters on Offense – 6 Toledo was 11th in total offense and 15th in scoring offense last season and with quarterback Bruce Gradkowski returning, the offense expects to not miss a beat. The biggest shoes to fill won’t be all-time leading receiver Lance Moore but will be All-American tackle Nick Kaczur. The good news is that three starters are back from that offensive line along with two quality running backs.
Returning Starters on Defense – 7 A very young defense last season got some great experience and should get better in 2005. The total defense was 89th in the nation and even though they allowed 31.1 ppg last season, most of that damage was done in the first two games. That average drops to 25.3 ppg when those first two are factored out. The defense is going to have a lot of looks this year, which will be beneficial in improving the unit.
Schedule Only five home games on the schedule hurts but the road games aren’t overwhelming. A non-conference game at Fresno St. and the finale at Bowling Green are the two biggest tests but both can be won. At the same time, both can be lost. Toledo should be 8-1 at the very least before its final two games that will likely decide the champions of both divisions.
Keep an eye on… Toledo has one of the best home field advantages in the conference and in the country for that matter. The Rockets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of a touchdown or more and we should see that scenario three times this season against Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan and Buffalo. Toledo has been at least 3-1 ATS as a home chalk in five of the last six years.
Northern Illinois Huskies
Fargo’s Take Unfortunately for the Huskies, they are the second best team in the MAC West and until they can beat Toledo, this is where they will remain. Northern Illinois has dropped 11 straight meetings against the Rockets and this isn’t going to be the year it snaps the streak, as they have to travel to the Glass Bowl. As opposed to years past, the Huskies aren’t going to sneak up on anyone.
Returning Starters on Offense – 6 The running game of the Huskies is one of the best in the nation with two backs that could start for most teams in the country. They do have an inexperienced quarterback but Phil Horvath has taken a good number of snaps and the quality of the running game will ease him along. Three seniors and two juniors anchor a small but experienced line.
Returning Starters on Defense – 6 Six players return but this is still a young defense with only five seniors on the two-deep chart. Last season, the Huskies yielded the most yards per carry on the ground in five years but that should improve as the defensive line has the most depth on that side of the ball. This season, the secondary is the question mark with the departure of two key players. There is just one senior in the entire defensive backfield and depth is an issue.
Schedule Well, it all comes down to one game and it’s already circled on the calendar. A trip to Toledo on November 16th will likely decide the division as long as both teams hold serve. The Huskies start the season with two Big Ten games, the first being a trip to the Big House to face Michigan. Northern Illinois doesn’t play Bowling Green and it gets Miami at home early in the year.
Keep an eye on… The Huskies are 9-3 ATS since 1999 as a single digit favorite and they will get a chance to increase that when Miami comes to town October 5th. A win over the RedHawks means a showdown with Toledo will likely be for all the marbles since the four games in-between are all against cupcakes. If for some reason Miami comes in a small favorite, the RedHawks are 1-6 ATS their last seven as a road favorite of less than a touchdown.
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Fargo’s Take The offense in Ypsilanti will be a powerful unit and there will be a lot of high scoring games because the defense is going to struggle once again as well. The Eagles finished .500 in the MAC last season but losses to Eastern Illinois and Idaho by a combined seven points were tough to take and prevented Eastern Michigan from having a winning record overall. One big variable is that the Eagles have one of the best kickers in the country with Andrew Wellock.
Returning Starters on Offense – 7 The unit finished 21st in the country in total offense and averaged 12.7 more ppg than it did in 2003. That is a huge jump and with all of the skill position players returning, another successful offensive season is pretty much a guarantee. The Eagles scored 31 or more points six times last year after accomplishing that only once in the previous season.
Returning Starters on Defense – 5 The problem was that the defense allowed 31 or more points in 10 of the Eagles’ 11 games and they were next to lasting the country in points allowed with 41.6 ppg. That has to decrease dramatically for 2005 to be a successful season but it is going to be difficult to achieve. Only five players return and while that might not be a bad thing based on last year’s numbers, there is not a lot of depth or experience to fill the holes.
Schedule Eastern Michigan will be hard pressed to make a run at the top of the conference as it has just four true home games. Three can be won but the road slate includes Cincinnati, Michigan, Toledo and Northern Illinois, which are four likely losses. The neutral site game against Western Michigan will likely determine whether or not a 6-5 season will happen but the last three games on the schedule can and should be won.
Keep an eye on… The first three games of the season are against non-conference opponents and the Eagles are 7-40 SU and 8-25-1 ATS since 1990, including 0-3 ATS as a favorite, when playing outside the conference. This could be the year that they finally break though as a home date against UL-Lafayette on September 10th is the best chance for a win. The Eagles will be a small home chalk and should be able to pull it out.
Central Michigan Chippewas
Fargo’s Take A good offense and a bad defense will be the common theme for the bottom teams in the MAC West and Central Michigan is no exception. After a very slow start, the offense started to show signs of life in the latter part of the season and that bodes well heading into 2005. Three of the wins last season were by a combined seven points while two of the losses were also by a combined seven points. A 6-5 finish or a 1-10 finish were both very possible last year and now it’s time to get over that hump.
Returning Starters on Offense – 7 The Chips have one of the best tailbacks in the MAC with Jerry Seymour and now that quarterback Kent Smith is more comfortable in the spread offense, the pressure can be taken off the running game. After averaging 18.2 ppg in the first six games, Central Michigan averaged 30.2 in the final five games and even though a 4 OT game skewed the numbers somewhat, it was definitely a move in the right direction.
Returning Starters on Defense – 6 See Eastern Michigan. The Chips are in the same boat with an offense that is going to produce and a defense that is going to give up a ton. The scoring defense and total defense both finished 105th in the country last season and after allowing no more than 27 points in their first four games, they allowed that many in six of their final seven games. The secondary is young and comes into 2005 as the worst unit in the MAC.
Schedule The schedule isn’t terrible with the game at Penn St. being the only definite non-conference loss. They host Indiana and are at Army so those can be taken. The MAC road games are soft with the exception of a trip to Miami in the second week of the season. Home games against Toledo and Northern Illinois are by no means easy or even winnable but at least they are at home.
Keep an eye on… This team is going to score and keep some games close that they probably shouldn’t. Central Michigan is 7-1 ATS since 2001 when getting three touchdowns or more and we are likely going to see that in two of its first three games at Miami and at Penn St. None of those ATS wins have been outright wins and it won’t happen this year either but the backdoor is always going to be open.
Western Michigan Broncos
Fargo’s Take The Broncos have fallen considerably. This was one of the most explosive offenses in the country five years ago and the man that led that unit on the sidelines is back as the head coach as Bill Cubit takes over the program. This is going to be a fun team to watch once again but only if you aren’t a lover of defense. With 15 starters coming back from last season, a move in the right direction is possible but it will be a small move if that.
Returning Starters on Offense – 9 A lot experience returns with eight juniors and seniors on the starting unit. The problem last season was a falloff at the end of the season as the offense scored no more than 21 points in its final four games after averaging 26.4 ppg in its first seven games and that included one shutout at Virginia Tech. A new system was needed and Cubit had some explosive offenses when he was the offensive coordinator in the 90’s.
Returning Starters on Defense – 6 See Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan. This is the third team in the MAC West that is going to struggle on defense. Western Michigan finished 115th in total defense and 114th in scoring defense last year and the ppg average goes from 39.6 ppg to 43.6 ppg when throwing out the zero points allowed against 1-AA Tenn.-Martin. There are just three seniors on the unit and another long season is expected.
Schedule The Broncos play five home games this season and all five have a chance to be won depending on how the defense progresses throughout the season. The slate starts with games at Virginia and Toledo followed by four games against the two worst teams in the MAC, Temple and 1-AA Southern Illinois. Western Michigan only has three true conference road games but they are Toledo, Bowling Green and Northern Illinois so there isn’t much of a break. At least they miss Miami.
Keep an eye on… The Broncos are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games when getting double digits going back to 2003. Western Michigan will be in that spot in the first two games of the season and even though the offense will be better, the offenses they are facing are even stronger and the Broncos don’t have the defense to keep pace. Two blowouts are expected early.
Ball St. Cardinals
Fargo’s Take The Cardinals could be in for another long season and unlike most MAC teams, the offense is not going to be very productive. They lost their best playmaker to the NFL a year early and the defense is still very young and very inexperienced. The win totals have decreased in each of the last three seasons but Ball St. is in rebuilding mode and given the youth on the squad, this could be a team that could make a run down the road but it won’t be this year.
Returning Starters on Offense – 6 The offense took a huge hit when receiver Dante Ridgeway declared early for the NFL draft. The Cardinals finished 98th in scoring offense and 96th in scoring defense in 2004 and it is going to be a slow process to improve those rankings. The one positive is an offensive line anchored by three seniors that will need to open holes for a new starting tailback after last season’s leading rusher was dismissed from the team.
Returning Starters on Defense – 9 The defense is young with eight sophomores and juniors on the first team. The unit allowed 35 or more points seven times last season and with the firepower in the conference this season, that probably will be matched again this year. The defense finished 100th or worse in all four major categories and opponents’ scoring has increased in each of the last four seasons topping out at 36.8 ppg last season.
Schedule The schedule is brutal once again with non-conference games at Iowa, Auburn and Boston College. The Cardinals have just four home games this season and the first two are against Bowling Green and Toledo. The season will likely start out with eight straight losses before the final three-game stretch that might salvage a couple of wins.
Keep an eye on… Ball St. is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games when getting double digits and that trend will likely continue as the defense is not good and the offense will be progressing very slowly. The first four games on the schedule will find the Cardinals being a dog of 10 or more and it will be very surprising if any of those games are close. If those games were on the back end of the schedule, it might be a different story.
This is Part 7 of a 20 Part College Football Preview Series from Matt Fargo. Check out future stories all summer long.