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Tom Coughlin BLEW IT Benching Warner?

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  • Tom Coughlin BLEW IT Benching Warner?

    I did not understand this move at the time, and now the numbers just may back it up.

    Granted hindsight is 20/20, but why was he benched? The Giants were 5-2 and then lost 2 straight games and dropped to 5-4.

    They were at home and poised to bounce back into the win column, but Warner was benched and they lost a close game 14-10 to the Falcons.

    According to my Excel Program, ALL of the Top 12 teams--as early as after Week Four games were played--made the playoffs. Except One--the Giants.

    My Excel Program pegged 11 out of 11 playoff teams after 4 weeks of play. Or, atleast among those who did not bench their starting QB's.

    Statistically the Giants were playoff bound until Coughlin panicked and benched the #6 QB in yards per pass attempt to put in a rookie in a must win game at the time.

    The Giants went on to lose 6 straight under Manning in route to a dismal 5.29 yards per pass attempt--good enough for 27th in the League--in contast to Warners 7.41 (sixth in the league).

    I didn't understand the move at the time, but I didn't realize how much it potentially hurt them.

    Why not leave Warner in to see if he could bounce right back at home? Meanwhile, in addition to potentially costing them a playoff birth, he made a common mistake (in my opinion) by putting in a Rookie TOO SOON.

    I can understand teams doing this with franchise players if they do not have much else at QB. But this could've been a golden opportunity to let Manning learn under Warner for the entire Season as long as Kurt was getting the job done.

    Eli will be better this season no doubt. But if Coughlin wanted to make an imediate impact, a potential playoff birth would've seemed the better choice.

    PRO EDGE is an Excell Program I wrote over the last few months. It is fairly complex, taking into account 20 key statistical categories.

    In addition, the program weights the categories according to most recent performance...and...factors in strength of schedule.

    Besides revealing 11 out of 12 playoff teams (the Giants being the only miss) after only Four Weeks, it went 52-30 ATS when playing underdogs or small faves which the program picked as the superior team.

    On Best Bets the Program nailed a 27-6 Record Against the Pointspread.

    If you are interested in the PRO EDGE Tipsheet this season, check out the site:

    http://pro-edge.tripod.com

    thanx,
    dave

  • #2
    I need to correct last year's playoff teams.

    I listed that the Excel projected 11 of 12 playoff teams after Week Four. It projected 10 of 12.

    I went to NFL dot com to see how the program did in picking Division Winners because I couldn't remember if the Packers or Vikings won the NFC North.

    While I was at the site, I noticed the Chiefs did NOT make the playoffs, but rather the Broncos. For some reason I thought the Cheifs had gone.

    Here's what the Program projected after Week Four of play:

    NFC EAST: EAGLES WIN
    NFC NORTH: PACKERS WIN
    NFC SOUTH: FALCONS WIN
    NFC WEST: SEAHAWKS WIN

    AFC EAST: PATS WIN
    AFC NORTH: STEELERS WIN
    AFC SOUTH: COLTS WIN
    AFC WEST: CHIEFS LOSE (missed playoffs altogether)

    AFC WILDCARDS:
    JETS (they were a wildcard)
    CHARGERS (they won division)*

    NFC WILDCARDS:
    GIANTS (did not make playoffs)
    VIKINGS (they were a wildcard)

    Rather than the Giants and Chiefs, it was the Rams and Broncos who made the playoffs.

    *Chargers PRO EDGE Power Rating after Week Four was only 0.40 less than Chiefs. No doubt after 2 more weeks--maybe only one--they would assume the nod for the AFC West.


    Stats after Week Four:
    10 of 12 playoff teams Correct
    7 of 8 Division Winners Correct
    2 of 2 Superbowl Choices Correct**

    **PRO EDGE projected a PATRIOTS-EAGLES Superbowl with the Eagles Winning. They both got there but the Eagles only COVERED.

    In just the same way that the Chargers would move up the ladder given a few more weeks, there is a good chance the Steelers would replace the Patriots as the Superbowl Choice with a few more weeks of stats. So that's a wash if you were playing futures. I'll keep it updated...

    dave
    http://pro-edge.tripod.com

    Comment


    • #3
      Eagles are still the team to beat not only in the NFC East, but in the NFC Conference.

      Panthers could make a run for the NFC Crown if they stay healthy.

      Early AFC observations: I'm really high on the Buffalo Bills. The over/under for wins is 8.0 (-125 for the over), 18-1 to win the AFC and 26-1 to win the SB. They are +725 to win the AFC East.

      The Dolphins do not figure to be a threat in that division imo. Getting around the Jets and especially the Pats is the trick.

      But the Bills have the earmarks of a sleeping giant. They strongly resemble the Panthers of two years ago.

      The loss of Bledsoe was untimely, but the system they have in Buffalo allows for an average QB to get the job done. If Losman can merely not give games away, that might enough to get them to the AFC Title game. Otherwise, Mularkey would put in Holcomb who is more than enough behind the revamped Bills O-line.

      Buffalo finished #2 in defense last season and had one of the best special teams units in the NFL. They have a fiery no-nonsense coach in Mike Mularkey and a running game. Solid receiving corp too.

      Final projections are pending pre-season looks. But at this juncture, it appear to me that the Bills could enter the fray of an entire cluster of AFC SB potentials...

      dave
      http://pro-edge.tripod.com

      Comment

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