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**Lsufan** · 07-20-2005, 12:56 AM

Good Luck Dave!!!

**Tigger** · 07-20-2005, 01:02 AM

Good to see you back Warrior, always SOLID!!!

~~~ Tigger

**Warrior** · 07-20-2005, 01:50 AM

Thanx...good night and good luck...

dt

**Warrior** · 07-20-2005, 12:04 PM

up4game

dt

**Tony Vegas** · 07-20-2005, 12:23 PM

looks similar to Blowout System last year. That didn't go as well as the previous season.

**Warrior** · 07-20-2005, 01:29 PM

Thanks for posting Tony. Who's system was that? I don't recall.

I'm looking at a number of factors here. Red Sox need to get the lead out and this is the right spot against a weak d'ray mound today.

Bo Sox could go over six runs inside of 3 or 4 innings, but most certainly over the coarse of nine...

gl,
dave

**moondog22** · 07-20-2005, 01:32 PM

good luck Warrior

**Warrior** · 07-20-2005, 01:54 PM

thanx moon...

game goes in 6 minutes...

gl,
dave

**Warrior** · 07-20-2005, 03:13 PM

Well that didn't take long

**Tony Vegas** · 07-20-2005, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by Warrior

Thanks for posting Tony. Who's system was that? I don't recall.

Your system in the SRO. It was the one you hyped last year here. Can't remember the name but it was BLOWOUT something. You showed how it did in 2003 and it was great. However in 2004 it did poorly.

Here:
08-18-2004, 06:18 PM
Warrior
Registered User Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Biloxi MS
Posts: 1,149

Update: NFL Blowout Formula

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hi,

I am currently in the process of applying the Blowout Formula to the 2002 NFL Season. I'll post the results when I'm done. Here's a breakdown and critical analysis of what the Formula did in 2003...

*BROWNS (-6) over Cardinals WIN 44-6

*BRONCOS (-8) over Chargers WIN 37-8

*SEAHAWKS (-10') over Lions WIN 35-14

*BEARS (-4) over Cardinals WIN 28-3

*VIKINGS (-1) over Seahawks WIN 34-7

*COLTS (-7') over Falcons WIN 38-7

*CHIEFS (-14') over Lions WIN 45-17

*SAINTS (-7) over Giants WIN 45-7

*PACKERS (-9) over Broncos WIN 31-3

*TITANS (-6') over Bucs WIN 33-13

The NFL Blowout Formula had 34 plays last Season. Ten of them (above) were decided by 20 or more points, or about 29.4% of the 34 plays.

In the NFL last season there were 256 Regular Season games played. Fifty-Seven of those were decided by 20 or more points, or about 22.3%.

Of the 222 games that were not Blowout Formula Games, 47 of them were decided by 20 or more points, or about 21.2%.

That means that the NFL Blowout Formula Games beat out the other games by 8.2 percentage points. In real time, that means the Blowout Formula picked blowout games a whopping 38.7% more often.

That's nearly 40% more often and VERY significant. If it merely picked more blowouts 10-15% of the time, that could be considered variation. That tells me that the formula works.

Even more significant is the fact that nine out of 10 of the blowout games scored 30>; nine out of 10 also allowed 14 or less. Now, I did not sub-divide all the games played last year; but I can tell you that many of the 20-point wins came on the strength of a huge offensive explosion like the Colts 55-20 over the Saints.

Or many of them came due to a defensive shut out win like 21-0 or something like that. Now don't get me wrong, a 20-point win is a 20-point win. But if you were to compare apples to apples, the results would be even more staggering.

What I am saying is that the Blowout Formula games are complete domination--not just a 20-point win on one side of the ball or the other. Here's a listing of those 20-point games...

*BROWNS (-6) over Cardinals WIN 44-6

*BRONCOS (-8) over Chargers WIN 37-8

*SEAHAWKS (-10') over Lions WIN 35-14

*BEARS (-4) over Cardinals WIN 28-3

*VIKINGS (-1) over Seahawks WIN 34-7

*COLTS (-7') over Falcons WIN 38-7

*CHIEFS (-14') over Lions WIN 45-17

*SAINTS (-7) over Giants WIN 45-7

*PACKERS (-9) over Broncos WIN 31-3

*TITANS (-6') over Bucs WIN 33-13

That is domination. These teams outyarded their opponents by an average of 201 yards per game: 432-231. The turnovers went in their favor 29-9. I'm sold on my latest formula. It is BY FAR the best I have developed in my 24-year career. Nearly 30% of its games are bonafide BLOWOUTS. Contrast that with the otherwise league average of 21%. Here's somemore analysis...

First I'll list the plays, then I'll do a brief critical analysis. Note that of the 28-5-1 ATS record, the games where the line is +/- 6> are 18-0-0 ATS.

You'll notice that the 6> point faves pull out some pretty sizeable blowouts, while the 6> point dogs win outright.

The numbers to the right of the games are a breakdown of the Net Yardage Results and the Turnover Battle results. "CB" means "Cover By". The games with asteriks*** are of the highest criteria met.

NFL BLOWOUT FORMULA Results from the 2003 Season:

WEEK EIGHT: 1-0/1-0

BENGALS (+2') 27, Seahawks 24 WIN 412-462 5-0 CB 5

WEEK NINE: 1-2/2-2

TEXANS (+6') 14, Panthers 10 WIN 267-367 1-0 CB 10***
JETS (+2') 28, GIANTS 31 Lose 392-413 0-4 CB -1
BRONCOS (-2') 26, Patriots 30 Lose (Monday) 277-419 2-1 CB -6

WEEK TEN: 3-0/5-2

BENGALS (-5) 34, Texans 27 WIN 422-269 1-1 CB 2
REDSKINS (+3') 27, Seahawks 20 WIN 379-346 3-2 CB 4
STEELERS (-7) 28, Cardinals 15 WIN 246-379 1-1 CB 6

WEEK ELEVEN: 4-1/9-3

BROWNS (-6) 44, Cardinals 6 WIN 481-187 4-0 CB 32***
BUCS (-3') 13, Packers 20 Lose 285-282 1-3 CB -10
COLTS (-6) 38, Jets 31 WIN 538-324 1-1 CB 1
BRONCOS (-8) 37, Chargers 8 WIN 448-96 4-3 CB 21***
SEAHAWKS (-10') 35, Lions 14 WIN 366-357 2-0 CB 11***

WEEK TWELVE: 2-0/11-3

COWBOYS (-3) 24, Panthers 20 WIN 319-244 2-1 CB 1
BILLS (+3) 14, Colts 17 PUSH 228-326 1-1 CB 0
TEXANS (+5') 20, Patriots 23 WIN 169-472 3-2 CB 2

WEEK THIRTEEN: 3-2/14-5

LIONS (+7) 22, Packers 14 WIN (Thu) 266-320 5-1 CB 15
COLTS (-3') 34, Patriots 38 Lose 370-282 3-2 CB -7
BEARS (-4) 28, Cardinals 3 WIN 422-197 3-1 CB 21
TEXANS (-3) 17, Falcons 13 WIN 236-243 1-1 CB 1
GIANTS (-3) 7, Bills 24 Lose 222-403 0-1 CB -20

WEEK FOURTEEN: 1-0/15-5

VIKINGS (-1) 34, Seahawks 7 WIN 465-258 3-0 CB 26

WEEK FIFTEEN: 7-0/22-5

COLTS (-7') 38, Falcons 7 WIN 465-154 2-2 CB 24***
PATRIOTS (-7) 27, Jaguars 13 WIN 296-354 2-1 CB 7
BEARS (+3) 13, Vikings 10 WIN 232-393 1-0 CB 6
CARDINALS (+6') 17, Panthers 20 WIN 317-298 2-2 CB 3
CHIEFS (-14') 45, Lions 17 WIN 521-334 2-0 CB 14
SAINTS (-7) 45, Giants 7 WIN 440-241 2-1 CB 31
RAIDERS (+6') 20, Ravens 12 WIN 265-319 3-0 CB 14***

WEEK SIXTEEN: 2-0/24-5

STEELERS (-6') 40, Chargers 24 WIN 341-344 3-0 CB 10***
TEXANS (+6) 24, Titans 27 WIN 326-450 1-3 CB 3

WEEK SEVENTEEN: 4-0/28-5

PACKERS (-9) 31, Broncos 3 WIN 366-216 3-1 CB 19***
FALCONS (-3) 21, Jaguars 14 WIN 344-320 1-1 CB 4
TITANS (-6') 33, Bucs 13 WIN 344-274 4-1 CB 14
LIONS (+11') 30, Rams 20 WIN 342-194 3-2 CB 21***

**VinnieB** · 07-20-2005, 03:53 PM

VERY NICE !!! :uzi:

**Warrior** · 07-20-2005, 04:46 PM

I thought you were referring to the MLB Blowout pick, and that some one had a baseball blowout system.

I was disappointed in the blowout system last year. The key difference in what I am doing this season versus all my other stuff (yardage formula, turnover formula, blowout system, etc) the last few years is that all of my old stuff was grounded in "contrare" ideological thought processes.

This year it's all numbers, which will put us on much sounder games.

I remember last season when purdure was at home, I think it was against Iowa. A lot of people including myself were all over Purdue.

My reasons for being on Purdue were well thought out, but then I read someone's post here at b-chat about how much better Iowa was statistically and they were only a 3-point fave.

That really got me to thinking. That's where I'm at this season Tony. It's a whole new world to me and my excell program should bear out much more trustworthy games...

gl man,
dave

**Tony Vegas** · 07-20-2005, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by Warrior

I thought you were referring to the MLB Blowout pick, and that some one had a baseball blowout system.

I was disappointed in the blowout system last year. The key difference in what I am doing this season versus all my other stuff (yardage formula, turnover formula, blowout system, etc) the last few years is that all of my old stuff was grounded in "contrare" ideological thought processes.

This year it's all numbers, which will put us on much sounder games.

I remember last season when purdure was at home, I think it was against Iowa. A lot of people including myself were all over Purdue.

My reasons for being on Purdue were well thought out, but then I read someone's post here at b-chat about how much better Iowa was statistically and they were only a 3-point fave.

That really got me to thinking. That's where I'm at this season Tony. It's a whole new world to me and my excell program should bear out much more trustworthy games...

gl man,
dave

Thanks Dave. I am just being a little sour on the whole thing b/c last year with the SRO, the Blowout System and Turnover System looked so good. The only reason I bought the SRO was for those formulas which I thought were based solely on numbers. But now I find out they weren't, at least that is my understanding. And now it seems this year, you are doing the same thing but with a whole new system b/c the last one failed. Just curious on why the changed after one bad year. Especially after you had backlogged the two previous years and they went well. Why scrap it now? If you are not going to use it this year, is it something you would like to share, the Blowout Formula that is?

**Warrior** · 07-20-2005, 06:24 PM

I understand Tony, I wasn't ecstatic with the results either. But I don't let it define my handicapping career. I just make the necessary changes to go with the changing tide of the NFL.

My Yardage formula went 55-19 ATS 4 seasons back and was promoted heavily. It followed up going 38-23 ATS in the Spread Report, but then the last 2 seasons has come in at 50/50.

The Turnover Formula had similar results only to fall off to about 50/50 also.

The Blowout Formula crashed last year finishing about 7 games under .500, which is considerably worse than my other stuff.

I'm not ditching the formulas, I'm ditching my style of "contrare" type capping. I'm adopting a "numbers first" style to be complimented sparingly by contrare considerations rather than the other way around. Kinda' like a team going from a west coast to a run first oriented offense.

All of these things "were" based on numbers, but they were grounded in contrare logic.

For example. Last year NFL teams that were outyarded by 300> yards in a single game went 5-0 ATS the following week. And over the last 15 years or so, when teams win 2 consecutive games scoring 30 or more and allowing 10 or less in each game, the inevitably fail to cover if facing a team outside their division.

Those are two examples of how I use numbers but then go the other way. This use to be quite successful many years ago and was the staple of my success for nearly 2 decades.

You may remember a time when the public almost always lost. When would zig, I would zag.

But times have changed with free agency, win-now owners and mentality, etc. There use to be a time when teams and players didn't give up even is they were 2-10 after 12 games. In the day of million dollar contracts I just dont' believe players give 100% anymore until the end. They are protecting their bodies. The game is different now in that way. And technical cappers like myself have a harder time discerning.

Also Vegas is sooo much sharper than they use to be. It's almost as thought they pre-handicap the line and the action before putting out the line, if that makes sense.

The advantage now is to the numbers player who finds those bad lines. It's been that way for a number of years, but some are slower to change.

My 25-years of handicapping ideology and thinking is still very successful in Baseball, NBA, and Hockey, but would not be real effective in sports like College Basketball where the parity found in pro sports is lacking in NCAA.

It's really simple from my perspective. What I have always done continues to work in those three sports, but in the NFL it has become more necessary and more effective to exploit to rediculously bad lines in certain games.

It darn sure takes the pressure off of trying to make a subjective judgement call. My Excell program is based on finding bad numbers. I don't have any reason to believe it won't continue to be successful since it takes away to necessity to make judgement calls. To look for false faves and exceptionally better teams (statistically) as small faves. That's all it does, and numbers don't lie. That's a relief to me. It's exciting to me.

gl,
dt

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