Tweet
Welcome to Pro Edge, my all-new publication dedicated to the statistical handicapping of Pro Football.
Now in my 26th year of handicapping, I have finally made the switch to a stats first approach--as opposed to the technical, contrare style of capping that has been my staple for over two decades.
My unique analysis on games has been good to me...once upon a time. But after failing to nip much above 50% the last few years in football, it has become obvious that it's a different game now.
While I am still strong in NBA, Hockey, and Baseball, the Gridiron has been my achilles heel of late. In an attempt to turn that around, I have completely REVAMPED my style. So complete is the revision that I have re-named my annual tipsheet "Pro Edge".
Every single piece of the old Report has been trashed and replaced with an Excell Program that I personally developed and wrote using key statistical criteria, weight, strength of schedule, and all that neat stuff.
I'm really proud of this program, and in retrospect I cannot believe I waited so long to make the switch. It's sooooo much less stress when I can have confidence in knowing that my pick is statistically sound. That probably sounds like a no-brainer, but anyone who's been doing this 10-15 years or more knows that there was a time when contrare and technical capping was the way to go.
In any event, the Pro Edge Tipsheet will consists of my Excell Program NFL Picks which I entitled "POWER SEVEN". I ran it through last season and it hit about 2 out of three ATS. I think the thing that is exciting to me about this season is that I can relax for a change knowing that numbers don't lie. Although I have always known (in theory) that there are bad numbers, I have to be honest with you I was somewhat shocked to see just how really bad some of them are.
All my stuff from the past has always been grounded in contrare logic. And anyone who's followed the SRO the last couple of seasons knows how often some of the stuff fails to live up. One of the more common critiques I have received over the last few years, from time to time, is that some of my picks are just not sound. But because I grew up in an era where unsound picks were winners and the public were losers, well, enough said.
My Pro-Edge Sheet will consist of the Pro picks as per my very own program as well as a "write up" on 2 College Games and two Pro Games, effectively eliminating the clutter of the old SRO.
Last Season I promised a Winning Football Season or a Free Season of NBA. I made good on the free season of NBA and nailed over 62% during the regular season and even better during the Playoffs. I'll make that same offer this year, but I fully expect a COMPLETE TRANSFORMATION of Results in Foots this season with the aid of my program.
My Pro Edge Online Sheet runs from Week 1 through the Superbowl (21 Issues) and is $8.50 per Issue, or $178.50 for the Season. As usual, the July Early Bird is 1/2 off ($89.00). I'd love to have you on board for this Season. As readers of the forum probably know, I do my sheet annually to supplement my income. I don't bet professionally, but I do play smaller amounts. I love what I do and cannot wait to see the results of my Excell Program. We will ALWAYS have sound numbers behind the games. I'm looking forward to a strong year. Here's order/contact info followed by last year's results.
Thanx,
dave
ck/m.o. to
David Toop
Box 4148
Biloxi MS 39535
paypal: [email protected]
2004 NFL RESULTS for "POWER 7" Program
by David Toop
2005
WEEK 5 (3-1/3-1)
*Ravens (pk) 17, REDSKINS 10.....WIN
*CHARGERS (+3) 34, Jaguars 21.....WIN
*TEXANS (+3') 28, Vikings 34.....Lose OT
*Titans (+3') 48, PACKERS 27.....WIN
WEEK 6 (5-1/8-2)
*Seahawks (+3') 20, PATRIOTS 30.....Lose
*Steelers (+3) 24, COWBOYS 20.....WIN
*JAGS (+2') 22, Chiefs 16.....WIN
*Chargers (+5) 20, FALCONS 21.....WIN
*Redskins (+1') 13, BEARS 10.....WIN
*Vikings (-4) 38, SAINTS 31....WIN
WEEK 7 (4-1/12-3)
*RAVENS (-4') 20, Bills 6.....WIN
*Chargers (+3) 17, PANTHERS 6.....WIN
*Falcons (+3') 10, CHIEFS 56.....Lose
*Saints (+3) 31, RAIDERS 26.....WIN
*PACKERS (-3') 41, Cowboys 20.....WIN
WEEK 8 (3-4/15-7)
*STEELERS (+3) 34, Patriots 20.....WIN
*Cardinals (+4') 14, BILLS 38.....Lose
*TITANS (-3) 27, Bengals 20.....WIN
*Colts (-1) 35, CHIEFS 45.....Lose
*Lions (+3') 21, COWBOYS 31.....Lose
*REDSKINS (+1) 14, Packers 28.....Lose
*BEARS (-2) 23, 49ers 13.....WIN
WEEK 9 (5-1/20-8)
*Patriots (+2') 40, RAMS 22.....WIN
*Cardinals (+3) 24, DOLPHINS 23.....WIN
*STEELERS (+1) 27, Eagles 3.....WIN
*BENGALS (-1) 26, Cowboys 3.....WIN
*Chiefs (-3) 31, BUCS 34.....Lose
*Redskins (+3') 17, LIONS 10.....WIN
WEEK 10 (2-4/22-12)
*JETS (+1) 17, Ravens 20.....Lose
*REDSKINS (-4) 10, Bengals 17.....Lose
*JAGUARS (-3') 23, Lions 17.....WIN
*Chiefs (-3') 20, SAINTS 27.....Lose
*Giants (pk) 14, CARDINALS 17.....Lose
*Panthers (+1') 37, 49ERS 27.....WIN
WEEK 11 (4-1/26-13)
*Patriots (-3) 27, CHIEFS 19.....WIN
*Jets (-1') 10, BROWNS 7.....WIN
*BILLS (-2) 37, Rams 17.....WIN
*Packers (-3) 16, TEXANS 13.....Push
*Falcons (-3) 14, GIANTS 10.....WIN
*Cardinals (+3) 10, PANTHERS 35.....Lose
WEEK 12 (3-1/29-14)
*Jets (-3) 13, CARDINALS 3.....WIN
*SEAHAWKS (-4) 9, Bills 38.....Lose
*Dolphins (+1) 24, 49ERS 17.....WIN
*COWBOYS (-3') 21, Bears 7.....WIN
WEEK 13 (0-1/29-15)
*Cardinals (+6) 12, LIONS 26.....Lose
WEEK 14 (3-1/32-16)
*Jets (+4') 6, STEELERS 17.....Lose
*Chiefs (-2') 49, TITANS 38.....WIN
*CHARGERS (-4) 31, Bucs 24.....WIN
*Seahawks (+6') 27, VIKINGS 23.....WIN
WEEK 15 (3-1/35-17)
*Bills (-3) 33, BENGALS 17.....WIN
*Jags (+3') 28, PACKERS 25.....WIN
*Texans (+1') 24, BEARS 5.....WIN
*Titans (+3') 35, RAIDERS 40.....Lose
WEEK 16: (2-0/37-17)
*Chargers (+7) 31, COLTS 34.....WIN
*Broncos (-4) 37, TITANS 16.....WIN
WEEK 17:
*No Plays
History:
Lifetime resident Mississippi Gulf Coast
Married, two Children ages 4 and 8
Handicapping since: 1981 (nfl)
Professionally since: 1986 (on and off)
Occupation: Casino Dealer
Best Sport: NBA, MLB
Accomplishments in field:
-Published and marketed articles/systems in mid-to-late '80's including purchases by Marc Lawrence and Joe Gavezzi
-NFL Sides Percentage 68.7% topped #1 in 1989 AADSS Championship (the late John Hodges)
-62% NCAA Football 1989, first year as service
-Got out of biz in 1990 and went into television biz
-Re-entered arena in 1998 with rise of internet
-#2 at Bigguy in Baseball 1998
-2001: Began marketing online tipsheet
-Best Call: Predicting a Panthers-Patriots Superbowl Matchup, before the beginning of the 2003 season, in the SRO NFL Preview Issue
2005: Launched Pro Edge; completely revamped Football Handicapping Ideology; wrote first Handicapping Program
Prediction as of writing: BUFFALO BILLS and the Rise of LOSMAN. You heard it here first. (Subject to change per pre-season evaluation)
F.A.Q.'S:
Do you do Pre-Season?
Yes, one or two games a week.
Are you going to do the NFL Preview and Futures with Pro Edge?
Yes.
Pro Edge doesn't begin until Week Five. What will the Sheet contain in the first four weeks?
The first four week's have been good to me. For all of the faults of the defunct SRO, it was done well each year during the first few weeks. I won't have a problem there, especially limiting the games to only 2 college and two pro each week.
What about College?
I have not progressed far enough in my learning to program to take on that many teams, and I'm not going to pretend otherwise. By next year, I'll be there--God willing. My Programs are somewhat complex. They're really good. But learning the syntax and all that stuff has been a challenge. My NFL Program is complete. I'm done with it and have plugged the numbers from last year. I have however looked into something very interesting in College Ball that only puts out about 1 or two games each week. It did really well the last 3 seasons, but I don't want to hype it the way I have some of my other stuff in the past. I'm only highlighting 1 or two games each week this year in the NCAA. Suffice it to say I "will" have a winning year with this college system.
You say you don't want to hype your College Stuff, but you hype your new program. What's the difference?
Numbers don't lie. The Program is not capable of putting out a statistically bad play, and therefore I am comfortable with it utterly. But the last few years has been humbling to have put so much thought into the logic of my latest research and then watch it struggle to hit 53-55%. This is a COMPLETE revision of my ENTIRE thought processes. My Program was designed, frankly, to find BAD LINES and take advantage of it. To find false favorites and bet the underdog, or to find better teams at cheap prices. In a sense, it does not require my thought processes to screw it up. It did however require my thought processes and my 25-years of knowledge in the field in order to develop it and build it and program it.
Why not bet your games for a living?
I should. I do well enough year round to do it. I'm not really sure why I've never made that jump. Probably because I love it too much. I love the challenge of capping the games and enjoy it in that context. I don't discipline myself the way I should. I can hit a 7-teamer in baseball that pays 93-1 and then turn around and let most of it ride on a boneheaded team total play or something like that--and have no regrets. I love doing this stuff...
July Early Bird is only about 4 bucks a week. Hope to have you on board again this season...
gl,
dave
Now in my 26th year of handicapping, I have finally made the switch to a stats first approach--as opposed to the technical, contrare style of capping that has been my staple for over two decades.
My unique analysis on games has been good to me...once upon a time. But after failing to nip much above 50% the last few years in football, it has become obvious that it's a different game now.
While I am still strong in NBA, Hockey, and Baseball, the Gridiron has been my achilles heel of late. In an attempt to turn that around, I have completely REVAMPED my style. So complete is the revision that I have re-named my annual tipsheet "Pro Edge".
Every single piece of the old Report has been trashed and replaced with an Excell Program that I personally developed and wrote using key statistical criteria, weight, strength of schedule, and all that neat stuff.
I'm really proud of this program, and in retrospect I cannot believe I waited so long to make the switch. It's sooooo much less stress when I can have confidence in knowing that my pick is statistically sound. That probably sounds like a no-brainer, but anyone who's been doing this 10-15 years or more knows that there was a time when contrare and technical capping was the way to go.
In any event, the Pro Edge Tipsheet will consists of my Excell Program NFL Picks which I entitled "POWER SEVEN". I ran it through last season and it hit about 2 out of three ATS. I think the thing that is exciting to me about this season is that I can relax for a change knowing that numbers don't lie. Although I have always known (in theory) that there are bad numbers, I have to be honest with you I was somewhat shocked to see just how really bad some of them are.
All my stuff from the past has always been grounded in contrare logic. And anyone who's followed the SRO the last couple of seasons knows how often some of the stuff fails to live up. One of the more common critiques I have received over the last few years, from time to time, is that some of my picks are just not sound. But because I grew up in an era where unsound picks were winners and the public were losers, well, enough said.
My Pro-Edge Sheet will consist of the Pro picks as per my very own program as well as a "write up" on 2 College Games and two Pro Games, effectively eliminating the clutter of the old SRO.
Last Season I promised a Winning Football Season or a Free Season of NBA. I made good on the free season of NBA and nailed over 62% during the regular season and even better during the Playoffs. I'll make that same offer this year, but I fully expect a COMPLETE TRANSFORMATION of Results in Foots this season with the aid of my program.
My Pro Edge Online Sheet runs from Week 1 through the Superbowl (21 Issues) and is $8.50 per Issue, or $178.50 for the Season. As usual, the July Early Bird is 1/2 off ($89.00). I'd love to have you on board for this Season. As readers of the forum probably know, I do my sheet annually to supplement my income. I don't bet professionally, but I do play smaller amounts. I love what I do and cannot wait to see the results of my Excell Program. We will ALWAYS have sound numbers behind the games. I'm looking forward to a strong year. Here's order/contact info followed by last year's results.
Thanx,
dave
ck/m.o. to
David Toop
Box 4148
Biloxi MS 39535
paypal: [email protected]
2004 NFL RESULTS for "POWER 7" Program
by David Toop
2005
WEEK 5 (3-1/3-1)
*Ravens (pk) 17, REDSKINS 10.....WIN
*CHARGERS (+3) 34, Jaguars 21.....WIN
*TEXANS (+3') 28, Vikings 34.....Lose OT
*Titans (+3') 48, PACKERS 27.....WIN
WEEK 6 (5-1/8-2)
*Seahawks (+3') 20, PATRIOTS 30.....Lose
*Steelers (+3) 24, COWBOYS 20.....WIN
*JAGS (+2') 22, Chiefs 16.....WIN
*Chargers (+5) 20, FALCONS 21.....WIN
*Redskins (+1') 13, BEARS 10.....WIN
*Vikings (-4) 38, SAINTS 31....WIN
WEEK 7 (4-1/12-3)
*RAVENS (-4') 20, Bills 6.....WIN
*Chargers (+3) 17, PANTHERS 6.....WIN
*Falcons (+3') 10, CHIEFS 56.....Lose
*Saints (+3) 31, RAIDERS 26.....WIN
*PACKERS (-3') 41, Cowboys 20.....WIN
WEEK 8 (3-4/15-7)
*STEELERS (+3) 34, Patriots 20.....WIN
*Cardinals (+4') 14, BILLS 38.....Lose
*TITANS (-3) 27, Bengals 20.....WIN
*Colts (-1) 35, CHIEFS 45.....Lose
*Lions (+3') 21, COWBOYS 31.....Lose
*REDSKINS (+1) 14, Packers 28.....Lose
*BEARS (-2) 23, 49ers 13.....WIN
WEEK 9 (5-1/20-8)
*Patriots (+2') 40, RAMS 22.....WIN
*Cardinals (+3) 24, DOLPHINS 23.....WIN
*STEELERS (+1) 27, Eagles 3.....WIN
*BENGALS (-1) 26, Cowboys 3.....WIN
*Chiefs (-3) 31, BUCS 34.....Lose
*Redskins (+3') 17, LIONS 10.....WIN
WEEK 10 (2-4/22-12)
*JETS (+1) 17, Ravens 20.....Lose
*REDSKINS (-4) 10, Bengals 17.....Lose
*JAGUARS (-3') 23, Lions 17.....WIN
*Chiefs (-3') 20, SAINTS 27.....Lose
*Giants (pk) 14, CARDINALS 17.....Lose
*Panthers (+1') 37, 49ERS 27.....WIN
WEEK 11 (4-1/26-13)
*Patriots (-3) 27, CHIEFS 19.....WIN
*Jets (-1') 10, BROWNS 7.....WIN
*BILLS (-2) 37, Rams 17.....WIN
*Packers (-3) 16, TEXANS 13.....Push
*Falcons (-3) 14, GIANTS 10.....WIN
*Cardinals (+3) 10, PANTHERS 35.....Lose
WEEK 12 (3-1/29-14)
*Jets (-3) 13, CARDINALS 3.....WIN
*SEAHAWKS (-4) 9, Bills 38.....Lose
*Dolphins (+1) 24, 49ERS 17.....WIN
*COWBOYS (-3') 21, Bears 7.....WIN
WEEK 13 (0-1/29-15)
*Cardinals (+6) 12, LIONS 26.....Lose
WEEK 14 (3-1/32-16)
*Jets (+4') 6, STEELERS 17.....Lose
*Chiefs (-2') 49, TITANS 38.....WIN
*CHARGERS (-4) 31, Bucs 24.....WIN
*Seahawks (+6') 27, VIKINGS 23.....WIN
WEEK 15 (3-1/35-17)
*Bills (-3) 33, BENGALS 17.....WIN
*Jags (+3') 28, PACKERS 25.....WIN
*Texans (+1') 24, BEARS 5.....WIN
*Titans (+3') 35, RAIDERS 40.....Lose
WEEK 16: (2-0/37-17)
*Chargers (+7) 31, COLTS 34.....WIN
*Broncos (-4) 37, TITANS 16.....WIN
WEEK 17:
*No Plays
History:
Lifetime resident Mississippi Gulf Coast
Married, two Children ages 4 and 8
Handicapping since: 1981 (nfl)
Professionally since: 1986 (on and off)
Occupation: Casino Dealer
Best Sport: NBA, MLB
Accomplishments in field:
-Published and marketed articles/systems in mid-to-late '80's including purchases by Marc Lawrence and Joe Gavezzi
-NFL Sides Percentage 68.7% topped #1 in 1989 AADSS Championship (the late John Hodges)
-62% NCAA Football 1989, first year as service
-Got out of biz in 1990 and went into television biz
-Re-entered arena in 1998 with rise of internet
-#2 at Bigguy in Baseball 1998
-2001: Began marketing online tipsheet
-Best Call: Predicting a Panthers-Patriots Superbowl Matchup, before the beginning of the 2003 season, in the SRO NFL Preview Issue
2005: Launched Pro Edge; completely revamped Football Handicapping Ideology; wrote first Handicapping Program
Prediction as of writing: BUFFALO BILLS and the Rise of LOSMAN. You heard it here first. (Subject to change per pre-season evaluation)
F.A.Q.'S:
Do you do Pre-Season?
Yes, one or two games a week.
Are you going to do the NFL Preview and Futures with Pro Edge?
Yes.
Pro Edge doesn't begin until Week Five. What will the Sheet contain in the first four weeks?
The first four week's have been good to me. For all of the faults of the defunct SRO, it was done well each year during the first few weeks. I won't have a problem there, especially limiting the games to only 2 college and two pro each week.
What about College?
I have not progressed far enough in my learning to program to take on that many teams, and I'm not going to pretend otherwise. By next year, I'll be there--God willing. My Programs are somewhat complex. They're really good. But learning the syntax and all that stuff has been a challenge. My NFL Program is complete. I'm done with it and have plugged the numbers from last year. I have however looked into something very interesting in College Ball that only puts out about 1 or two games each week. It did really well the last 3 seasons, but I don't want to hype it the way I have some of my other stuff in the past. I'm only highlighting 1 or two games each week this year in the NCAA. Suffice it to say I "will" have a winning year with this college system.
You say you don't want to hype your College Stuff, but you hype your new program. What's the difference?
Numbers don't lie. The Program is not capable of putting out a statistically bad play, and therefore I am comfortable with it utterly. But the last few years has been humbling to have put so much thought into the logic of my latest research and then watch it struggle to hit 53-55%. This is a COMPLETE revision of my ENTIRE thought processes. My Program was designed, frankly, to find BAD LINES and take advantage of it. To find false favorites and bet the underdog, or to find better teams at cheap prices. In a sense, it does not require my thought processes to screw it up. It did however require my thought processes and my 25-years of knowledge in the field in order to develop it and build it and program it.
Why not bet your games for a living?
I should. I do well enough year round to do it. I'm not really sure why I've never made that jump. Probably because I love it too much. I love the challenge of capping the games and enjoy it in that context. I don't discipline myself the way I should. I can hit a 7-teamer in baseball that pays 93-1 and then turn around and let most of it ride on a boneheaded team total play or something like that--and have no regrets. I love doing this stuff...
July Early Bird is only about 4 bucks a week. Hope to have you on board again this season...
gl,
dave
Comment