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Let me begin by saying that while this is the biggest game of the season, it doesn't mean it should be a bailout play or larger than normal wager. Keep within the budget and be able to enjoy the game, even if you don't win the bets. On with the day!
2004/2005 NFL Playoff Record/ 9-7, +10.10 Units
PENDING WAGERS:
5***** 4 Team/13 pt. Super Teaser: NE +10, ATL UNDER 49, AFC +8.5, OVER 31 (2-0, PENDING)
10********** AFC -3.5 Futures Wager (PENDING)
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SUPER BOWL XXXVIIII PLAYS:
7******* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year/Patriots and Eagles OVER 46.5, -108 (Nine of the last 13 games have gone OVER the total)
5***** New England Patriots -6.5, -122 (The team that is the higher playoff seed is just 1-6-2 ATS in the last nine Super Bowl games)
5***** New England PK/OVER 40 (2 Team, 7 Point Teaser) (The favorite is 27-11 ATS in Teaser plays)
PROP BETS:
1* Defensive or Special teams TD? / YES, +156
1* Any Score in the first 6:18? / YES, -120
1* Patriots Score 1st, Win the Game? /YES, -127
1* 1st Score will be a TD? / YES, -160
1* Total Field Goals / OVER 3.5, +131
1* Total Team Points / New England OVER 27.5, -103
1* New England -10.5, +161
1* New England -13.5, +208
1* 2nd Quarter OVER 13, -124
1* 4th Quarter OVER 13.5, -138
1* Total Sacks in Game/OVER 4.5, +121
1* OVER 1.5 Interceptions, -186
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The Philadelphia Eagles are a team filled with talented players and led by one of the NFL's best coaches. They have more wins than any NFL team this decade and dominated their conference this season from wire to wire. It is their misfortune that, when they finally reach the Super Bowl, their opponent presents them with the worst matchup possible. Even if it did look like the Eagles and Patriots presented an equal matchup on paper, New England would have to be favored in this game because of the general imbalance between the AFC and the NFC. The AFC had a 44-20 record against NFC teams this season, the widest disparity since 1979.
Remember the days of the 80's and early 90's when the NFC won and covered nearly every year? The Bills were largely responsible for many AFC failures, but the Cowboys, Giants, Niners and Redskins were the kings of the NFC that blew teams away. Now the AFC has taken over the balance of power in the NFL. Everything in sports, life and fashion is cyclical and the strongest teams are in the AFC currently. They have dominated in interconference play of late and it has carried over in to this one game "winner take all" event, otherwise known as the biggest single sporting event of the entire year. The Patriots are coming off back-to-back wins against Indy and Pittsburgh, two teams that were a combined 29-7 this season (including playoffs). The Patriots outscored these two teams in the playoffs by an average of 30.5-15.0. Indy and Pittsburgh boasted the league's No. 1 offense and No. 1 defense, respectively. They were a combined 1-3 against New England this season, but 28-4 against the rest of the league. The Eagles are coming off back to back wins at home over two dome teams that went a combined 19-13 in the regular season. The AFC went 44-20 vs. the NFC this season. Despite the fact that the NFC East boasts the conference's Super Bowl representative, the division went just 4-12 against the AFC North, a division that sent just one team to the playoffs. New England plays in the AFC East, which went sent two teams to the playoffs and went 13-3 against the NFC West, a division that sent two teams to the playoffs. The NFC this season became the first conference to send two .500 teams to the playoffs. In the entire history of the NFL, a .500 team had never won a playoff game. But the NFC's two .500 playoff representatives, St. Louis and Minnesota, each recorded playoff wins this year. Needless to say, the NFC was ridiculously bad this year, even by historical standards. The 2004 Patriots are the first team to enter a Super Bowl with six more quality wins than its opponent. The Patriots have nine quality wins. The Eagles have three. Teams with the better record against quality opponents are 23-9 in the Super Bowl (two Super Bowls paired teams who had the same record against quality opponents, quality determined by playing teams with a winning record). Six Super Bowls featured opponents who posted the same overall record in the regular season. The team with the better record against quality opponents won five of those games. No team in history has entered a Super Bowl with more than nine quality wins, yet New England enters Super Bowl XXXIX with a 14-2 record in the regular season and a 9-1 record against quality opponents, including the playoffs.
Probably the biggest thing to realize about the Super Bowl is that the talent and concentration level are magnified in this game, and the team with the edge in each of these usually dominates. Spreads are set higher than they would be in your typical Sunday regular season game scenario. The same normally goes for totals. The total number of points scored in the 38 previous Super Bowls averages 46.1, significantly more than the average season game, and the victory margin has been 15.8 PPG. The winning team is averaging 31.0 PPG, and the last team to win a Super Bowl with less than 20 points was Pittsburgh in SB IX when it beat Minnesota 16-6. The SU winner of the Super Bowl is 32-3-3 against the point spread. If you pick the winner, you likely will cash your bet. What that means is don't bet a team that you think will lose and cover. It's about a 10% chance bet. The team that wins the game SU owns a 27-10 ATS first half mark, and the team that wins the game ATS owns a 30-5-3 ATS mark in the first half. Don't panic if you bet the OVER and the game starts slowly, as 53.2% of the total points are scored in the second half of the games. The highest scoring quarter is the fourth quarter, 526 points. Super Bowl XXXVIII saw 24 points scored in the 2nd quarter's final four minutes. The lowest scoring total is the first quarter, 326 points (8.6 PPG). The first quarter of Super Bowl XXXVIII held true to this trend, going scoreless. Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 31-7 SU & 28-7-3 ATS. Teams that average more passing yards per attempt are 33-5 SU & 29-6-3 ATS. Teams that win the time of possession battle are 28-10 SU & 27-8-3 ATS. Finally, teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories (Rush Yds, Pass Yards per Att, TOs, TOP) are 32-1 SU & 29-3-1 ATS... and teams that win all four categories are 21-0 SU & 20-0-1 ATS. The team that scores first has won and covered 27 of 38 previous Super Bowls (one of my prop bets today).
These two have faced each other fairly recently, in September 2003 at Philadelphia. The Patriots defense pressured McNabb into four turnovers and got a big game from Brady as the Patriots rolled to a 31-10 win. Coach Belichick and Romeo Crennel had designed a game plan that used numerous blitzes to control and shut down McNabb and the Eagles offense. McNabb lost two fumbles, was sacked seven times (those wanting to bet the SB Prop of UNDER 4.5 sacks should bear this in mind) and threw a pair of interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. He completed just 18 of 46 passes for 186 yards and was booed on his home field. Meanwhile, Brady completed 30 of 44 passes for 255 yards and three touchdowns, two going to TE Christian Fauria.
McNabb's first trip to the Super Bowl can be attributed to him finally becoming a strong pocket passer who occasionally runs, instead of the other way around. McNabb's ability to read defenses will be tested by New England's defensive 3/4 alignment. McNabb's two worst performances of the season may have come in his two games against AFC teams playing a 3/4 defensive scheme. Not a single NFC team plays the 3/4, so he doesn't see it often. In a 15-10 win over Baltimore, McNabb passed for 219 yards on 33 attempts, only 6.6 yards per attempt, and nearly half those yards were on passes to Owens (eight catches, 101 yards). The following week, Pittsburgh handed the Eagles their only loss prior to clinching the NFC's top playoff seed, and McNabb passed for only 109 yards on 24 attempts, a miserable 4.5 yards per attempt. Because no teams in the NFC play the 3-4, the Eagles do not have much experience against teams where the fourth pass rusher varies from down to down, so I expect a certain amount of confusion for McNabb and the eagles offense. Hopefully this leads to INT's and turnovers early. If the Eagles are going to use T.O. in this game, it will be in the red zone. During the first 15 weeks of the season, the Eagles threw to Owens 17 times in the red zone. They threw to other wide receivers a grand total of once: an incomplete pass to Freddie Mitchell on 3rd and goal from the five yard line against Green Bay. With tight end Chad Lewis out with an injury, Philadelphia needs Owens in the red zone even more. Throwing to Todd Pinkston in the red zone would be a shock roughly equivalent to throwing to Hugh Douglas lined up as a tight end.
McNabb's ability to throw accurately out of the pocket from short drops has enabled him to complete 64.4 percent of his passes in in these playoffs. Having T.O. during the regular season gave McNabb the confidence to have his first 64% completion season, a seven-percent improvement over his career stats. Being able to maintain the same percentage in the playoffs without Owens at full strength is huge and very meaningful. New England has taken away the strengths of opposing offenses all year long, other than the Halloween disaster at Pittsburgh and the Dolphins MNF Game of the Year, when Brady had a very rare meltdown in the 4th quarter. To me, the key to this game has little to do with Owens and everything to do with how the Patriots control Westbrook. He is the key to this offense, as they line him up all over the field and move him in motion constantly, in order to create mismatches against the defense. His 4.5 YPC and 73 catches mean more to me than T.O. and his big mouth. Add Westbrook's 9 TD's to that, and the ability of Crennel and New England to nullify him by getting favorable matchups is huge. I don't expect either Westbrook, Levens or even McNabb to break any long runs, as New England gave up the fewest double digit yardage runs in the entire NFL. The Patriots will play physical at the line of scrimmage against the Eagle wide receivers and force McNabb to make reads to his 2nd and 3rd options. In the game last season, the Pats were able to keep him in the pocket with a spy and got pressure on him all game long. Expect the New England coaches to turn up the heat even higher on a neutral field. They want to force McNabb back into his old habits, which include bad technique and forced throws into traffic. My belief in the Pats ability to do this is why I like the Prop Bets on total sacks and a play on the OVER 1.5 in total interceptions.
Just like that Super Bowl game a year ago, Belichick and Crennel can pull out the entire assortment of blitzes because neither Mitchell or Todd "Alligator Arms" Pinkston pose a real threat at wide receiver. Even if Terrell Owens plays 6 1/2 weeks after ankle surgery (I hope he does, as that favors a line drop in the Pat's favor and value for NE bettors), he will not be close to 100 percent. I think it's hype to force NE to game plan for him but with two weeks to prepare, Belichick and Crennel will not be fooled and will be ready. New England's strength on defense are the linebackers, who can control the middle and underneath zones. Bruschi, McGinest and Vrabel will make sure that Westbrook is covered at all times out of the backfield. That will put extreme pressure on McNabb to shoulder a heavy burden. He will need to scramble for first downs to keep one of the linebackers occupied. The Eagles lost tight end Chad Lewis, an effective red-zone option and excellent receiver, due to injury in the NFC championship game. I think his loss is a bigger issue than not having Owens, as far as the overall ability of the offense. While L.J. Smith is their best pass catching tight end, he will likely be matched up against Rodney Harrison, the league's best strong safety.
Each year, Tom Brady has become more of a down field passer and as I mentioned in the writeup before the Colts game, Brady threw only 43 less passes on the season than Manning. The amazing Mr. Brady has thrown just three interceptions in 10 postseason football games, an average of one every 90.3 attempts, the lowest figure in NFL postseason history! With the addition of a running game this year, the play action options to Corey Dillon have opened up more big plays down field. This play action set up the Deion Branch 1st quarter 60yard TD catch against the Steelers. The Dillon presence improved Brady's yards per attempt by a full yard to 7.8 yards a throw and his 52 regular season completions of 20 yards or more were his career best. New England will be able to throw on Philly. They have shown that no one wide receiver can be taken away from Brady and shut down the offense. Even Dillon has become a weapon out of the backfield in the passing game, after an entire season where he caught less than ten passes. Take away Troy Brown, he has Branch. Take away Fauria, he has Graham and even Vrabel! You can not shut down the Patriot passing game with the sets that Charlie Weis puts in, and Brady does not make mistakes in big games. All you heard in last year's game was how the Panther defense was the best in football and their defensive line would be on Brady all afternoon. They never laid a hand on him, and NE was working with a patchwork offensive line, playing two free agents and a rookie. It is interesting to note that since Brady's 4th quarter meltdown in Miami on Monday Night Football, he has only thrown ONE interception in his last 113 passing attempts following that game. This guy learns from his mistakes, plays within the system and controls the offense. Don't look for Brady to make key errors in this one, giving Philly good field position and scoring opportunities. The only sacks he has taken have come off of delays while holding the ball too long, each sack coming after 3.4 seconds in the pocket, also known as coverage sacks. If the Eagles bring blitzes, he will dink and dunk them to death in the short passing game like he did in their game last year. If his offensive line holds up against the Eagles pass rush, he will have opportunities down field for the big play. New England is awesome at getting receivers into space underneath, forcing the safeties up and them bombing them over the top.
I will look for the Pats to double Jevon Kearse with the tight end. Kearse will likely be flipped to the side away from Matt Light so that he can go against Brandon Gorin, who took over for the injured Tom Ashworth earlier in the season. Kearse would have a more favorable matchup that way. That makes the 1 on 1 matchup between Todd Light and Derrick Burgess a key to this game. Burgess was huge in the NFC Championship game stopping T.J. Duckett on key short yard plays on 3rd down. Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson will mix his blitzes in to disrupt Tom Brady's timing and rhythm. Since Jeremiah Trotter moved back into the middle linebacker spot during the season, Philadelphia has been much improved against the run, taking almost 40 yards a game of their average over the last six weeks of the regular season. The Eagles will need to hold Dillon under 80 yards, because if he is running for 125+, that not only keeps the Eagles offense off the field, but it creates big problems in the passing game for the Philly defense. The Eagles will rely on the three Pro Bowlers in their secondary with Lito Sheppard, strong safety Michael Lewis and free safety Brian Dawkins to contain the New England fleet set of receivers, six of which had over 20 catches on the year. Dawkins is one of the tougher and more aggressive safeties and can send a message with some big hits to combat the New England slants over the middle. Philadelphia made waves with the signing of T.O. to give McNabb another weapon and jump start the passing game. It worked, but the real need was in the run defense. Until Trotter was put into the lineup, Philly was a dismal 27th in rush D. From week 10 on, after the whipping that Jerome Bettis and Pittsburgh put on the Eagles, the presence of Trotter at MLB and adding bulk along the line with Hollis Thomas and Sam Rayburn brought the Eagles up to 11th in rush D and cut the average rushing yards per game down by more than a third. With the Patriot offensive line back at full strength, look for a battle for control at the line of scrimmage to dictate what kind of game we see. If NE can get Dillon into some quick hits through the defense, that will open up the passing game as Brian Dawkins and Trotter have to help in run support and Brady goes deep off play action for scores.
Let's compare the Patriots performance of the last two seasons to the two year performances of the winningest teams in Super Bowl history. The 2003/04 Patriots were the deadliest big-game team ever in the long history of professional football. The Patriots won three more games and surpassed the 1985/86 Bears to claim the second best record over a two year span in the Super Bowl era. Only the 1972/1973 Dolphins have a better record. The Patriots tied the 1997/98 Broncos for the most victories over a two year span. New England added two more quality wins to its resume. Only one team in NFL history, the 1978/79 Steelers, beat more than 16 quality opponents in a two-year span (defined as a team with a winning record). The Steelers went 17-5 against teams with winning records. The 2003/04 Patriots are 19-1 against quality opponents that meet the same standard. Following their win over the Steelers in the AFC title game, the Patriots are the only club on the list to beat an opponent that went 15-1 in the regular season. Only two other teams among the 10 winningest in the Super Bowl era beat an opponent that posted a 14-2 regular-season record. The 1992 Cowboys beat the 14-2 49ers in the NFC title game. The 1998 Broncos beat the 14-2 Falcons in Super Bowl XXXIII.
I also compared overall records and records against quality opponents. I looked at the scoring differential each of these teams posted against quality opponents, and also looked at how these quality opponents performed against all other opponents. If the Patriots win Super Bowl XXXIX, they will have recorded more wins in a two year period than any team in history. The 1972/73 Dolphins have the second best record but played the fewest quality opponents. Finally, how do all these quality opponents fared against the rest of the league? This would tell us which teams played the toughest collection of quality opponents. The New England quality opponents were a combined 221-99 over the past two seasons, but they were 1-19 against the Patriots. Therefore, they went 220-80 against the rest of the league. New England went 19-1 (.950) against teams that had a .733 winning percentage against the rest of the league. The Broncos went 12-4 (.750) against teams that had a .750 winning percentage against the rest of the league. These numbers show that the 2003/2004 Patriots are among the very best teams in NFL history and based on the stats, would be a great match against any of these legendary teams. They also show that the 2003/2004 Patriots are clearly the most dominant team of the salary cap era. The Patriots have been favored each game this season. They have won 31 of their last 33 games and are 25-7-1, 78% against the spread. They have won two of the past three Super Bowls. Patriots coach Bill Belichick is 9-1 in playoff games with his only defeat coming when he coached the old Cleveland Browns.
After going through each teams schedule and looking at the quality of the offenses New England and Philadephia faced, this is what I found: New England faced five top 10 scoring offenses (Indy, Buffalo 2X, Kansas City and Cincinnati) while Philly faced three top 10 scoring offenses (Minnesota, Green Bay and Cincinnati). New England's top offensive opponents were Indy (No. 1, 32.6 PPG) and Kansas City (No. 2, 30.2 PPG) and the Eagles top offensive opponents were Green Bay (No. 5, 26.5 PPG) and Minnesota (No. 6, 25.3 PPG). New England's average opponent ranked 16th in scoring offense and the Eagles average opponent ranked 22nd in scoring offense. New England played two games against the two best offenses in football while the Eagles played three games against the two worst offenses in football (Washington twice and Chicago). The Pats opponents scored 5,583 points this season, or 21.8 points per game, and Philly’s opponents scored 5,041 points this season, or 19.8 points per game, so New England faced a much tougher road of offensive opponents this season. Philly held opponents to 3.6 points per game below their average scoring output. New England, meanwhile, held teams to 5.6 points per game below their average scoring output. What does this mean? The Patriots, in other words, have been more impressive on defense when we consider the quality of the offenses they faced this season. New England played the #10 toughest schedule, while Philadelphia played only the #26 rated schedule... so the Patriots numbers came against more difficult competition.
Now we look at the total of 47.5 in this game. Even though the Eagles went UNDER the total at a 12-5-1 clip this year and that New England has played under in three of its last four, this one goes OVER. While the New England defense gets most of the publicity, it is the offense that makes this team go. The Pats own one of the most consistent offenses in the NFL. They have been held to fewer than 21 points just three times this year and have cracked 30 points on six occasions. Six different Patriots caught at least 20 passes this year, making it next to impossible to zero in on even a couple receivers in pass coverage. With two weeks to plan an offensive strategy, I don't see how the New England offense isn't going to get its points. The Pats are probably going to slug it out early with the running game, though New England will not be shy about attacking the Eagles secondary. Philly is going to bring creative blitzes all day, but Brady is the best in the business at picking up pass rushers. Extra blitzers mean more open field in the secondary, which means Brady will be able to find those gaps. You might have been impressed with how well they ran the ball against Atlanta, but the Falcons smallish defensive line was manhandled at the line of scrimmage. New England is a big and physical defense and will not give up those chunks of yards on the ground. I don't think they will be able to rack up that kind of yardage against New England but they should be able to do enough to keep the Pats from teeing off against the passing game. Philly has scored at least 27 points 12 times this year. I don't think the Eagles will put up that many points against the New England defense, but I don't think they'll be completely shut down. Andy Reid and his coaching staff have come up with some interesting offensive strategies over the past few weeks and I think the Eagles will make enough plays to help push this one OVER the total of 47.5 today. Here is something to consider as well: The Pats have scored first in all but one game this year, the regular season finale victory over San Francisco. It is the reason why the Pats are favorites of -156 to score first when they take the field in Jacksonville, and this may be one of the best props on the board for Super Bowl XXXIX, despite the big vig. Even though their opponents (Pittsburgh and Indianapolis) had the first possession in both playoff games, the Pats defense held them off the scoreboard long enough to give the offense a chance to get within range. They blanked Pittsburgh for 13 ½ minutes last week and it took Indianapolis a full half to finally kick their only field goal of the game.
Much can be made of the Eagles big win and domination of Atlanta last week, and the return of Terrell Owens will give Philly fans even more hope. They have EIGHT Pro Bowlers, compared to only FOUR for New England, and two of the Patriots Pro Bowlers are on special teams! Here's the bottom line: A better team from a better conference with far more experience in a game that rarely is determined by the point spread. No player has come in and dominated against New England so I don't see McNabb or T.O. making a big statement this Sunday. If you give the Patriot coaching staff two weeks to break down the Eagles, I promise you that they will have a solution to any threat that may arise. The boys from Massachusetts are 4-0 against the spread vs. the NFC while the Eagles are 0-4 vs. the AFC. I will take a group that everyone knows is the best TEAM in pro football and who has consistently blown away the point spread all season long, going 13-3-2 even considering that Vegas gives them tougher numbers to overcome based on the public perception of the defending Super Bowl Champs. The Eagles were only able to post a 11-7 ats mark this year. Please understand how big that is, when you are always favored and still beat the number regularly. If you go back over time, you will find that the team with the better ATS record during the season has won and covered this game over 75% of the time. I expect a statement game from New England in the final go-round for the greatest coaching nucleus of the modern era. With the future staff in doubt, watch for Belichick, Weis and Crennel to pull out all the stops in their final game together and win going away. Too many offensive options for the New England Patriots and too much defensively that will take away the downfield threats of the Philadelphia offense. This amazing team ends this year the same way they ended it last year, hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Patriots 37, Eagles 20.
2004/2005 NFL Playoff Record/ 9-7, +10.10 Units
PENDING WAGERS:
5***** 4 Team/13 pt. Super Teaser: NE +10, ATL UNDER 49, AFC +8.5, OVER 31 (2-0, PENDING)
10********** AFC -3.5 Futures Wager (PENDING)
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SUPER BOWL XXXVIIII PLAYS:
7******* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year/Patriots and Eagles OVER 46.5, -108 (Nine of the last 13 games have gone OVER the total)
5***** New England Patriots -6.5, -122 (The team that is the higher playoff seed is just 1-6-2 ATS in the last nine Super Bowl games)
5***** New England PK/OVER 40 (2 Team, 7 Point Teaser) (The favorite is 27-11 ATS in Teaser plays)
PROP BETS:
1* Defensive or Special teams TD? / YES, +156
1* Any Score in the first 6:18? / YES, -120
1* Patriots Score 1st, Win the Game? /YES, -127
1* 1st Score will be a TD? / YES, -160
1* Total Field Goals / OVER 3.5, +131
1* Total Team Points / New England OVER 27.5, -103
1* New England -10.5, +161
1* New England -13.5, +208
1* 2nd Quarter OVER 13, -124
1* 4th Quarter OVER 13.5, -138
1* Total Sacks in Game/OVER 4.5, +121
1* OVER 1.5 Interceptions, -186
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The Philadelphia Eagles are a team filled with talented players and led by one of the NFL's best coaches. They have more wins than any NFL team this decade and dominated their conference this season from wire to wire. It is their misfortune that, when they finally reach the Super Bowl, their opponent presents them with the worst matchup possible. Even if it did look like the Eagles and Patriots presented an equal matchup on paper, New England would have to be favored in this game because of the general imbalance between the AFC and the NFC. The AFC had a 44-20 record against NFC teams this season, the widest disparity since 1979.
Remember the days of the 80's and early 90's when the NFC won and covered nearly every year? The Bills were largely responsible for many AFC failures, but the Cowboys, Giants, Niners and Redskins were the kings of the NFC that blew teams away. Now the AFC has taken over the balance of power in the NFL. Everything in sports, life and fashion is cyclical and the strongest teams are in the AFC currently. They have dominated in interconference play of late and it has carried over in to this one game "winner take all" event, otherwise known as the biggest single sporting event of the entire year. The Patriots are coming off back-to-back wins against Indy and Pittsburgh, two teams that were a combined 29-7 this season (including playoffs). The Patriots outscored these two teams in the playoffs by an average of 30.5-15.0. Indy and Pittsburgh boasted the league's No. 1 offense and No. 1 defense, respectively. They were a combined 1-3 against New England this season, but 28-4 against the rest of the league. The Eagles are coming off back to back wins at home over two dome teams that went a combined 19-13 in the regular season. The AFC went 44-20 vs. the NFC this season. Despite the fact that the NFC East boasts the conference's Super Bowl representative, the division went just 4-12 against the AFC North, a division that sent just one team to the playoffs. New England plays in the AFC East, which went sent two teams to the playoffs and went 13-3 against the NFC West, a division that sent two teams to the playoffs. The NFC this season became the first conference to send two .500 teams to the playoffs. In the entire history of the NFL, a .500 team had never won a playoff game. But the NFC's two .500 playoff representatives, St. Louis and Minnesota, each recorded playoff wins this year. Needless to say, the NFC was ridiculously bad this year, even by historical standards. The 2004 Patriots are the first team to enter a Super Bowl with six more quality wins than its opponent. The Patriots have nine quality wins. The Eagles have three. Teams with the better record against quality opponents are 23-9 in the Super Bowl (two Super Bowls paired teams who had the same record against quality opponents, quality determined by playing teams with a winning record). Six Super Bowls featured opponents who posted the same overall record in the regular season. The team with the better record against quality opponents won five of those games. No team in history has entered a Super Bowl with more than nine quality wins, yet New England enters Super Bowl XXXIX with a 14-2 record in the regular season and a 9-1 record against quality opponents, including the playoffs.
Probably the biggest thing to realize about the Super Bowl is that the talent and concentration level are magnified in this game, and the team with the edge in each of these usually dominates. Spreads are set higher than they would be in your typical Sunday regular season game scenario. The same normally goes for totals. The total number of points scored in the 38 previous Super Bowls averages 46.1, significantly more than the average season game, and the victory margin has been 15.8 PPG. The winning team is averaging 31.0 PPG, and the last team to win a Super Bowl with less than 20 points was Pittsburgh in SB IX when it beat Minnesota 16-6. The SU winner of the Super Bowl is 32-3-3 against the point spread. If you pick the winner, you likely will cash your bet. What that means is don't bet a team that you think will lose and cover. It's about a 10% chance bet. The team that wins the game SU owns a 27-10 ATS first half mark, and the team that wins the game ATS owns a 30-5-3 ATS mark in the first half. Don't panic if you bet the OVER and the game starts slowly, as 53.2% of the total points are scored in the second half of the games. The highest scoring quarter is the fourth quarter, 526 points. Super Bowl XXXVIII saw 24 points scored in the 2nd quarter's final four minutes. The lowest scoring total is the first quarter, 326 points (8.6 PPG). The first quarter of Super Bowl XXXVIII held true to this trend, going scoreless. Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 31-7 SU & 28-7-3 ATS. Teams that average more passing yards per attempt are 33-5 SU & 29-6-3 ATS. Teams that win the time of possession battle are 28-10 SU & 27-8-3 ATS. Finally, teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories (Rush Yds, Pass Yards per Att, TOs, TOP) are 32-1 SU & 29-3-1 ATS... and teams that win all four categories are 21-0 SU & 20-0-1 ATS. The team that scores first has won and covered 27 of 38 previous Super Bowls (one of my prop bets today).
These two have faced each other fairly recently, in September 2003 at Philadelphia. The Patriots defense pressured McNabb into four turnovers and got a big game from Brady as the Patriots rolled to a 31-10 win. Coach Belichick and Romeo Crennel had designed a game plan that used numerous blitzes to control and shut down McNabb and the Eagles offense. McNabb lost two fumbles, was sacked seven times (those wanting to bet the SB Prop of UNDER 4.5 sacks should bear this in mind) and threw a pair of interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. He completed just 18 of 46 passes for 186 yards and was booed on his home field. Meanwhile, Brady completed 30 of 44 passes for 255 yards and three touchdowns, two going to TE Christian Fauria.
McNabb's first trip to the Super Bowl can be attributed to him finally becoming a strong pocket passer who occasionally runs, instead of the other way around. McNabb's ability to read defenses will be tested by New England's defensive 3/4 alignment. McNabb's two worst performances of the season may have come in his two games against AFC teams playing a 3/4 defensive scheme. Not a single NFC team plays the 3/4, so he doesn't see it often. In a 15-10 win over Baltimore, McNabb passed for 219 yards on 33 attempts, only 6.6 yards per attempt, and nearly half those yards were on passes to Owens (eight catches, 101 yards). The following week, Pittsburgh handed the Eagles their only loss prior to clinching the NFC's top playoff seed, and McNabb passed for only 109 yards on 24 attempts, a miserable 4.5 yards per attempt. Because no teams in the NFC play the 3-4, the Eagles do not have much experience against teams where the fourth pass rusher varies from down to down, so I expect a certain amount of confusion for McNabb and the eagles offense. Hopefully this leads to INT's and turnovers early. If the Eagles are going to use T.O. in this game, it will be in the red zone. During the first 15 weeks of the season, the Eagles threw to Owens 17 times in the red zone. They threw to other wide receivers a grand total of once: an incomplete pass to Freddie Mitchell on 3rd and goal from the five yard line against Green Bay. With tight end Chad Lewis out with an injury, Philadelphia needs Owens in the red zone even more. Throwing to Todd Pinkston in the red zone would be a shock roughly equivalent to throwing to Hugh Douglas lined up as a tight end.
McNabb's ability to throw accurately out of the pocket from short drops has enabled him to complete 64.4 percent of his passes in in these playoffs. Having T.O. during the regular season gave McNabb the confidence to have his first 64% completion season, a seven-percent improvement over his career stats. Being able to maintain the same percentage in the playoffs without Owens at full strength is huge and very meaningful. New England has taken away the strengths of opposing offenses all year long, other than the Halloween disaster at Pittsburgh and the Dolphins MNF Game of the Year, when Brady had a very rare meltdown in the 4th quarter. To me, the key to this game has little to do with Owens and everything to do with how the Patriots control Westbrook. He is the key to this offense, as they line him up all over the field and move him in motion constantly, in order to create mismatches against the defense. His 4.5 YPC and 73 catches mean more to me than T.O. and his big mouth. Add Westbrook's 9 TD's to that, and the ability of Crennel and New England to nullify him by getting favorable matchups is huge. I don't expect either Westbrook, Levens or even McNabb to break any long runs, as New England gave up the fewest double digit yardage runs in the entire NFL. The Patriots will play physical at the line of scrimmage against the Eagle wide receivers and force McNabb to make reads to his 2nd and 3rd options. In the game last season, the Pats were able to keep him in the pocket with a spy and got pressure on him all game long. Expect the New England coaches to turn up the heat even higher on a neutral field. They want to force McNabb back into his old habits, which include bad technique and forced throws into traffic. My belief in the Pats ability to do this is why I like the Prop Bets on total sacks and a play on the OVER 1.5 in total interceptions.
Just like that Super Bowl game a year ago, Belichick and Crennel can pull out the entire assortment of blitzes because neither Mitchell or Todd "Alligator Arms" Pinkston pose a real threat at wide receiver. Even if Terrell Owens plays 6 1/2 weeks after ankle surgery (I hope he does, as that favors a line drop in the Pat's favor and value for NE bettors), he will not be close to 100 percent. I think it's hype to force NE to game plan for him but with two weeks to prepare, Belichick and Crennel will not be fooled and will be ready. New England's strength on defense are the linebackers, who can control the middle and underneath zones. Bruschi, McGinest and Vrabel will make sure that Westbrook is covered at all times out of the backfield. That will put extreme pressure on McNabb to shoulder a heavy burden. He will need to scramble for first downs to keep one of the linebackers occupied. The Eagles lost tight end Chad Lewis, an effective red-zone option and excellent receiver, due to injury in the NFC championship game. I think his loss is a bigger issue than not having Owens, as far as the overall ability of the offense. While L.J. Smith is their best pass catching tight end, he will likely be matched up against Rodney Harrison, the league's best strong safety.
Each year, Tom Brady has become more of a down field passer and as I mentioned in the writeup before the Colts game, Brady threw only 43 less passes on the season than Manning. The amazing Mr. Brady has thrown just three interceptions in 10 postseason football games, an average of one every 90.3 attempts, the lowest figure in NFL postseason history! With the addition of a running game this year, the play action options to Corey Dillon have opened up more big plays down field. This play action set up the Deion Branch 1st quarter 60yard TD catch against the Steelers. The Dillon presence improved Brady's yards per attempt by a full yard to 7.8 yards a throw and his 52 regular season completions of 20 yards or more were his career best. New England will be able to throw on Philly. They have shown that no one wide receiver can be taken away from Brady and shut down the offense. Even Dillon has become a weapon out of the backfield in the passing game, after an entire season where he caught less than ten passes. Take away Troy Brown, he has Branch. Take away Fauria, he has Graham and even Vrabel! You can not shut down the Patriot passing game with the sets that Charlie Weis puts in, and Brady does not make mistakes in big games. All you heard in last year's game was how the Panther defense was the best in football and their defensive line would be on Brady all afternoon. They never laid a hand on him, and NE was working with a patchwork offensive line, playing two free agents and a rookie. It is interesting to note that since Brady's 4th quarter meltdown in Miami on Monday Night Football, he has only thrown ONE interception in his last 113 passing attempts following that game. This guy learns from his mistakes, plays within the system and controls the offense. Don't look for Brady to make key errors in this one, giving Philly good field position and scoring opportunities. The only sacks he has taken have come off of delays while holding the ball too long, each sack coming after 3.4 seconds in the pocket, also known as coverage sacks. If the Eagles bring blitzes, he will dink and dunk them to death in the short passing game like he did in their game last year. If his offensive line holds up against the Eagles pass rush, he will have opportunities down field for the big play. New England is awesome at getting receivers into space underneath, forcing the safeties up and them bombing them over the top.
I will look for the Pats to double Jevon Kearse with the tight end. Kearse will likely be flipped to the side away from Matt Light so that he can go against Brandon Gorin, who took over for the injured Tom Ashworth earlier in the season. Kearse would have a more favorable matchup that way. That makes the 1 on 1 matchup between Todd Light and Derrick Burgess a key to this game. Burgess was huge in the NFC Championship game stopping T.J. Duckett on key short yard plays on 3rd down. Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson will mix his blitzes in to disrupt Tom Brady's timing and rhythm. Since Jeremiah Trotter moved back into the middle linebacker spot during the season, Philadelphia has been much improved against the run, taking almost 40 yards a game of their average over the last six weeks of the regular season. The Eagles will need to hold Dillon under 80 yards, because if he is running for 125+, that not only keeps the Eagles offense off the field, but it creates big problems in the passing game for the Philly defense. The Eagles will rely on the three Pro Bowlers in their secondary with Lito Sheppard, strong safety Michael Lewis and free safety Brian Dawkins to contain the New England fleet set of receivers, six of which had over 20 catches on the year. Dawkins is one of the tougher and more aggressive safeties and can send a message with some big hits to combat the New England slants over the middle. Philadelphia made waves with the signing of T.O. to give McNabb another weapon and jump start the passing game. It worked, but the real need was in the run defense. Until Trotter was put into the lineup, Philly was a dismal 27th in rush D. From week 10 on, after the whipping that Jerome Bettis and Pittsburgh put on the Eagles, the presence of Trotter at MLB and adding bulk along the line with Hollis Thomas and Sam Rayburn brought the Eagles up to 11th in rush D and cut the average rushing yards per game down by more than a third. With the Patriot offensive line back at full strength, look for a battle for control at the line of scrimmage to dictate what kind of game we see. If NE can get Dillon into some quick hits through the defense, that will open up the passing game as Brian Dawkins and Trotter have to help in run support and Brady goes deep off play action for scores.
Let's compare the Patriots performance of the last two seasons to the two year performances of the winningest teams in Super Bowl history. The 2003/04 Patriots were the deadliest big-game team ever in the long history of professional football. The Patriots won three more games and surpassed the 1985/86 Bears to claim the second best record over a two year span in the Super Bowl era. Only the 1972/1973 Dolphins have a better record. The Patriots tied the 1997/98 Broncos for the most victories over a two year span. New England added two more quality wins to its resume. Only one team in NFL history, the 1978/79 Steelers, beat more than 16 quality opponents in a two-year span (defined as a team with a winning record). The Steelers went 17-5 against teams with winning records. The 2003/04 Patriots are 19-1 against quality opponents that meet the same standard. Following their win over the Steelers in the AFC title game, the Patriots are the only club on the list to beat an opponent that went 15-1 in the regular season. Only two other teams among the 10 winningest in the Super Bowl era beat an opponent that posted a 14-2 regular-season record. The 1992 Cowboys beat the 14-2 49ers in the NFC title game. The 1998 Broncos beat the 14-2 Falcons in Super Bowl XXXIII.
I also compared overall records and records against quality opponents. I looked at the scoring differential each of these teams posted against quality opponents, and also looked at how these quality opponents performed against all other opponents. If the Patriots win Super Bowl XXXIX, they will have recorded more wins in a two year period than any team in history. The 1972/73 Dolphins have the second best record but played the fewest quality opponents. Finally, how do all these quality opponents fared against the rest of the league? This would tell us which teams played the toughest collection of quality opponents. The New England quality opponents were a combined 221-99 over the past two seasons, but they were 1-19 against the Patriots. Therefore, they went 220-80 against the rest of the league. New England went 19-1 (.950) against teams that had a .733 winning percentage against the rest of the league. The Broncos went 12-4 (.750) against teams that had a .750 winning percentage against the rest of the league. These numbers show that the 2003/2004 Patriots are among the very best teams in NFL history and based on the stats, would be a great match against any of these legendary teams. They also show that the 2003/2004 Patriots are clearly the most dominant team of the salary cap era. The Patriots have been favored each game this season. They have won 31 of their last 33 games and are 25-7-1, 78% against the spread. They have won two of the past three Super Bowls. Patriots coach Bill Belichick is 9-1 in playoff games with his only defeat coming when he coached the old Cleveland Browns.
After going through each teams schedule and looking at the quality of the offenses New England and Philadephia faced, this is what I found: New England faced five top 10 scoring offenses (Indy, Buffalo 2X, Kansas City and Cincinnati) while Philly faced three top 10 scoring offenses (Minnesota, Green Bay and Cincinnati). New England's top offensive opponents were Indy (No. 1, 32.6 PPG) and Kansas City (No. 2, 30.2 PPG) and the Eagles top offensive opponents were Green Bay (No. 5, 26.5 PPG) and Minnesota (No. 6, 25.3 PPG). New England's average opponent ranked 16th in scoring offense and the Eagles average opponent ranked 22nd in scoring offense. New England played two games against the two best offenses in football while the Eagles played three games against the two worst offenses in football (Washington twice and Chicago). The Pats opponents scored 5,583 points this season, or 21.8 points per game, and Philly’s opponents scored 5,041 points this season, or 19.8 points per game, so New England faced a much tougher road of offensive opponents this season. Philly held opponents to 3.6 points per game below their average scoring output. New England, meanwhile, held teams to 5.6 points per game below their average scoring output. What does this mean? The Patriots, in other words, have been more impressive on defense when we consider the quality of the offenses they faced this season. New England played the #10 toughest schedule, while Philadelphia played only the #26 rated schedule... so the Patriots numbers came against more difficult competition.
Now we look at the total of 47.5 in this game. Even though the Eagles went UNDER the total at a 12-5-1 clip this year and that New England has played under in three of its last four, this one goes OVER. While the New England defense gets most of the publicity, it is the offense that makes this team go. The Pats own one of the most consistent offenses in the NFL. They have been held to fewer than 21 points just three times this year and have cracked 30 points on six occasions. Six different Patriots caught at least 20 passes this year, making it next to impossible to zero in on even a couple receivers in pass coverage. With two weeks to plan an offensive strategy, I don't see how the New England offense isn't going to get its points. The Pats are probably going to slug it out early with the running game, though New England will not be shy about attacking the Eagles secondary. Philly is going to bring creative blitzes all day, but Brady is the best in the business at picking up pass rushers. Extra blitzers mean more open field in the secondary, which means Brady will be able to find those gaps. You might have been impressed with how well they ran the ball against Atlanta, but the Falcons smallish defensive line was manhandled at the line of scrimmage. New England is a big and physical defense and will not give up those chunks of yards on the ground. I don't think they will be able to rack up that kind of yardage against New England but they should be able to do enough to keep the Pats from teeing off against the passing game. Philly has scored at least 27 points 12 times this year. I don't think the Eagles will put up that many points against the New England defense, but I don't think they'll be completely shut down. Andy Reid and his coaching staff have come up with some interesting offensive strategies over the past few weeks and I think the Eagles will make enough plays to help push this one OVER the total of 47.5 today. Here is something to consider as well: The Pats have scored first in all but one game this year, the regular season finale victory over San Francisco. It is the reason why the Pats are favorites of -156 to score first when they take the field in Jacksonville, and this may be one of the best props on the board for Super Bowl XXXIX, despite the big vig. Even though their opponents (Pittsburgh and Indianapolis) had the first possession in both playoff games, the Pats defense held them off the scoreboard long enough to give the offense a chance to get within range. They blanked Pittsburgh for 13 ½ minutes last week and it took Indianapolis a full half to finally kick their only field goal of the game.
Much can be made of the Eagles big win and domination of Atlanta last week, and the return of Terrell Owens will give Philly fans even more hope. They have EIGHT Pro Bowlers, compared to only FOUR for New England, and two of the Patriots Pro Bowlers are on special teams! Here's the bottom line: A better team from a better conference with far more experience in a game that rarely is determined by the point spread. No player has come in and dominated against New England so I don't see McNabb or T.O. making a big statement this Sunday. If you give the Patriot coaching staff two weeks to break down the Eagles, I promise you that they will have a solution to any threat that may arise. The boys from Massachusetts are 4-0 against the spread vs. the NFC while the Eagles are 0-4 vs. the AFC. I will take a group that everyone knows is the best TEAM in pro football and who has consistently blown away the point spread all season long, going 13-3-2 even considering that Vegas gives them tougher numbers to overcome based on the public perception of the defending Super Bowl Champs. The Eagles were only able to post a 11-7 ats mark this year. Please understand how big that is, when you are always favored and still beat the number regularly. If you go back over time, you will find that the team with the better ATS record during the season has won and covered this game over 75% of the time. I expect a statement game from New England in the final go-round for the greatest coaching nucleus of the modern era. With the future staff in doubt, watch for Belichick, Weis and Crennel to pull out all the stops in their final game together and win going away. Too many offensive options for the New England Patriots and too much defensively that will take away the downfield threats of the Philadelphia offense. This amazing team ends this year the same way they ended it last year, hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Patriots 37, Eagles 20.