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Well, I should have expected it... all three Opinion Plays win, I back off my play on St. Louis because of the forecast of heavy snow in Seattle (it was 45 degrees and never saw a single flake) so of course they win the game straight up... and San Diego loses the whole game straight up, the one play I stay with. I should know better than to play on any MartyBall team in the postseason, and I never learn.
Current record:
NFL Playoffs/0-1, -4.4 Units
NFL/55-47-1, +19.45 Units (Final)
NFLX/21-13-1, +16.7 Units (Final)
NCAA/53-38, +34.52 Units (Final)
NCAA BOWLS/7-12, -31.6 Units (Final)
Total/136-111-2, +34.67 Units YTD
Percentage 56%
4**** Indianapolis Colts -10
4**** Minnesota Vikings/Green Bay Packers OVER 51
Opinions: Colts/Broncos UNDER 56
It's rare to see a 10 point favorite become a 10 point dog in a rematch of the same two teams in consecutive weeks, but here I feel it's warranted. The Broncos were favored by 10 at Mile High last week because the Colts rested most of their impact players and showed Denver nothing from the playbook, content to rest starters and knowing they would see each other the following week at the RCA Dome. To make matters worse, now Denver comes off a physical game in which Denver safety John Lynch got fined $75,000 for his hit on Dallas Clark, knocking him silly. Don't think for a minute that Indy doesn't remember. The Bronco defensive secondary has been yapping all week about how they will shut down the Indy wideouts by playing physical and smacking the small guys around.
Well, this strategy is old news... New England used that game plan last year in the AFC Championship and it worked, but New England's corners and safeties were one of the few groups that could do that successfully because they had the personnel that could pull off the task. The Broncos are going to be exposed if they think they match up with the Colts the same way that the Patriots could in personnel. Don't you think that every team that plays Manning and the Colts hasn't seen what the Patriots did and tried to emulate it? How well did it work? Let's see...
Manning is the league MVP, set a new NFL record for TD passes, leads the league in passer rating, quarterbacks the highest scoring team in football, three 1,000 yard receivers on his team, blah blah blah. Didn't work, and it won't work tomorrow. Denver is thin in the secondary and Champ Bailey has been beaten when teams go right at him. Who does he cover? Indy has deep threat receivers that run very precise routes and now they will get back Marcus Pollard, one of Peyton's favorite targets. Tom Moore, the Indy offensive coordinator, is one of the best in the business. I know that the Colts wideouts are not intimidated by all the smack talk coming from Denver, in fact they have said nothing all week in anticipation of this game and will let their play speak for them. The Broncos defensive coordinator claims to have upgraded his personnel substantially over last year with Bailey and Lynch and are now ready for the Colt's precision offense. The Denver D ranked 4th against the pass this year and allowed 17 touchdown passes, 4th fewest in the league. The only thing is, those are EXACTLY the same stats they had last year when they went to Indianapolis and got torched.
Jake Plummer is the unknown entity here as I can't trust him in tight situations. How can a team that is in the TOP SIX in every offensive and defensive category be so lowly regarded? Denver hasn't won a single playoff game since John Elway called it quits. If Denver falls behind, Jake the Flake will start forcing throws into coverage and interceptions will be made. Those that have called Indianapolis' defense terrible are looking at stats from the first half of the year. The Colts played a far superior brand of defense over the last half and will attempt to keep Plummer in the pocket, which is where he throws most of his interceptions from, 20 on the season which tied him for most in the league. Indy is opportunistic on D, collecting 17 fumbles and 19 interceptions on the season. The Broncos offensive line will be overmatched vs. the speed of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis who are much quicker than what Denver is used to on this Dome turf. Those two had 26.5 sacks this year and will cause problems for the Broncos, even with the cheapshot cut blocks that the Bronco O-Linemen use. Scoring from the red zone is also key for a Broncos' team that has repeatedly sputtered. On 10 occasions, the Broncos have been forced to kick field goals inside the 29-yard line because of the failures of the offense. Last Sunday, the Broncos could not reach the end zone from the 4-yard line, following a fumble recovery. The Broncos' problems in the red zone are caused in part from coach Mike Shanahan's predictability and an aging offensive line that cannot consistently move the pile. Shanahan primarily calls for running plays inside the 20, in part because he cannot rely on Plummer's judgment. Seeing Jason Elam in goal line and red zone situations Sunday will spell doom for Denver.
During last year's playoff game at the RCA Dome, Peyton threw for 4 TD's, 327 yards passing and a perfect passer rating of 158.3 and Indianapolis scored 31 points... IN THE FIRST HALF!!! It came against the same loudmouth corners like Kelly Herndon and Kenoy Kennedy, who are taking about how they are going to knock around the little Colts. Good Luck, guys.... players play, and talkers talk. Different year, same sad story. Indianapolis 45, Broncos 13.
Green Bay/Minnesota, Part III... these teams have played each other 88 times, yet this is the first time ever in the postseason. I will not risk one cent of my hard-earned money on a team that is 2-21-1 ATS outdoors in the last 23 trips outside the Metrodome. That doesn't include the el-foldo that is consistent with the Vikings history after week 9 or so... start fast, crash and burn at the midway point, begin the finger pointing and Randy Moss implosion (nice, classy move last week walking off the field with time on the clock), finally stumbling backwards into the playoffs in a free fall... only to get wiped out in Round One. The Vikings are a defensive disaster, particularly in the secondary (Antoine Winfield is dinged and Corey Chavous is out) and I can't see Green Bay being stopped running or throwing the ball for any length of time. Donald Driver and Javon Walker will get their chances and look for Bubba Franks to get a score or two. On the other hand, Green Bay is nothing to write home about defensively either. They can't stop the run, the secondary is a bit suspect and have been gashed for big plays all year. Unfortunately for the Vikings, one way to move the ball against bthe Pack is to run the ball right at them, but they run the ball less than any team in the league, only 39% of the time and the Minny running backs average only 24 attempts per game. Granted, losing Jim Kleinsasser and Mike Rosenthal's blocking really hurt the running game and with Culpepper and Moss, they haven't needed to use the run much. If the Vikings do attempt to run, Michael Bennett does have three 100 yard games against Green Bay. Both of these teams are ranked near the bottom in the all-important "giveaway/takeaway' stats, the Vikings -2 and Green Bay an ugly -14... anyone that thinks that you can get to a Super Bowl with numbers like those is delusional. No team has ever made the Championship Round that was negative in turnovers. Since 1990, Green Bay has won the third meeting each time it has played a club twice in a season and then again in the playoffs (1993 and 1994 against Detroit; 1997 against Tampa Bay). However, I can't see Green Bay being favored by more than the 3 points we have seen both games decided by and a backdoor cover is ALWAYS possible with these two teams that know each other so well. I am passing on the side wager, but as both games this year ended on 65 total points and the last 9 have gone OVER the posted total, I will play on the OVER. With both teams having prolific offenses, bottom-dweller defenses (GB ranks 25th and the Vikings 28th), every page in both playbooks available and with a reasonably low total of 50, I will look for a repeat of what we have seen twice this year already. Packers 34, Vikings 31.
Current record:
NFL Playoffs/0-1, -4.4 Units
NFL/55-47-1, +19.45 Units (Final)
NFLX/21-13-1, +16.7 Units (Final)
NCAA/53-38, +34.52 Units (Final)
NCAA BOWLS/7-12, -31.6 Units (Final)
Total/136-111-2, +34.67 Units YTD
Percentage 56%
4**** Indianapolis Colts -10
4**** Minnesota Vikings/Green Bay Packers OVER 51
Opinions: Colts/Broncos UNDER 56
It's rare to see a 10 point favorite become a 10 point dog in a rematch of the same two teams in consecutive weeks, but here I feel it's warranted. The Broncos were favored by 10 at Mile High last week because the Colts rested most of their impact players and showed Denver nothing from the playbook, content to rest starters and knowing they would see each other the following week at the RCA Dome. To make matters worse, now Denver comes off a physical game in which Denver safety John Lynch got fined $75,000 for his hit on Dallas Clark, knocking him silly. Don't think for a minute that Indy doesn't remember. The Bronco defensive secondary has been yapping all week about how they will shut down the Indy wideouts by playing physical and smacking the small guys around.
Well, this strategy is old news... New England used that game plan last year in the AFC Championship and it worked, but New England's corners and safeties were one of the few groups that could do that successfully because they had the personnel that could pull off the task. The Broncos are going to be exposed if they think they match up with the Colts the same way that the Patriots could in personnel. Don't you think that every team that plays Manning and the Colts hasn't seen what the Patriots did and tried to emulate it? How well did it work? Let's see...
Manning is the league MVP, set a new NFL record for TD passes, leads the league in passer rating, quarterbacks the highest scoring team in football, three 1,000 yard receivers on his team, blah blah blah. Didn't work, and it won't work tomorrow. Denver is thin in the secondary and Champ Bailey has been beaten when teams go right at him. Who does he cover? Indy has deep threat receivers that run very precise routes and now they will get back Marcus Pollard, one of Peyton's favorite targets. Tom Moore, the Indy offensive coordinator, is one of the best in the business. I know that the Colts wideouts are not intimidated by all the smack talk coming from Denver, in fact they have said nothing all week in anticipation of this game and will let their play speak for them. The Broncos defensive coordinator claims to have upgraded his personnel substantially over last year with Bailey and Lynch and are now ready for the Colt's precision offense. The Denver D ranked 4th against the pass this year and allowed 17 touchdown passes, 4th fewest in the league. The only thing is, those are EXACTLY the same stats they had last year when they went to Indianapolis and got torched.
Jake Plummer is the unknown entity here as I can't trust him in tight situations. How can a team that is in the TOP SIX in every offensive and defensive category be so lowly regarded? Denver hasn't won a single playoff game since John Elway called it quits. If Denver falls behind, Jake the Flake will start forcing throws into coverage and interceptions will be made. Those that have called Indianapolis' defense terrible are looking at stats from the first half of the year. The Colts played a far superior brand of defense over the last half and will attempt to keep Plummer in the pocket, which is where he throws most of his interceptions from, 20 on the season which tied him for most in the league. Indy is opportunistic on D, collecting 17 fumbles and 19 interceptions on the season. The Broncos offensive line will be overmatched vs. the speed of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis who are much quicker than what Denver is used to on this Dome turf. Those two had 26.5 sacks this year and will cause problems for the Broncos, even with the cheapshot cut blocks that the Bronco O-Linemen use. Scoring from the red zone is also key for a Broncos' team that has repeatedly sputtered. On 10 occasions, the Broncos have been forced to kick field goals inside the 29-yard line because of the failures of the offense. Last Sunday, the Broncos could not reach the end zone from the 4-yard line, following a fumble recovery. The Broncos' problems in the red zone are caused in part from coach Mike Shanahan's predictability and an aging offensive line that cannot consistently move the pile. Shanahan primarily calls for running plays inside the 20, in part because he cannot rely on Plummer's judgment. Seeing Jason Elam in goal line and red zone situations Sunday will spell doom for Denver.
During last year's playoff game at the RCA Dome, Peyton threw for 4 TD's, 327 yards passing and a perfect passer rating of 158.3 and Indianapolis scored 31 points... IN THE FIRST HALF!!! It came against the same loudmouth corners like Kelly Herndon and Kenoy Kennedy, who are taking about how they are going to knock around the little Colts. Good Luck, guys.... players play, and talkers talk. Different year, same sad story. Indianapolis 45, Broncos 13.
Green Bay/Minnesota, Part III... these teams have played each other 88 times, yet this is the first time ever in the postseason. I will not risk one cent of my hard-earned money on a team that is 2-21-1 ATS outdoors in the last 23 trips outside the Metrodome. That doesn't include the el-foldo that is consistent with the Vikings history after week 9 or so... start fast, crash and burn at the midway point, begin the finger pointing and Randy Moss implosion (nice, classy move last week walking off the field with time on the clock), finally stumbling backwards into the playoffs in a free fall... only to get wiped out in Round One. The Vikings are a defensive disaster, particularly in the secondary (Antoine Winfield is dinged and Corey Chavous is out) and I can't see Green Bay being stopped running or throwing the ball for any length of time. Donald Driver and Javon Walker will get their chances and look for Bubba Franks to get a score or two. On the other hand, Green Bay is nothing to write home about defensively either. They can't stop the run, the secondary is a bit suspect and have been gashed for big plays all year. Unfortunately for the Vikings, one way to move the ball against bthe Pack is to run the ball right at them, but they run the ball less than any team in the league, only 39% of the time and the Minny running backs average only 24 attempts per game. Granted, losing Jim Kleinsasser and Mike Rosenthal's blocking really hurt the running game and with Culpepper and Moss, they haven't needed to use the run much. If the Vikings do attempt to run, Michael Bennett does have three 100 yard games against Green Bay. Both of these teams are ranked near the bottom in the all-important "giveaway/takeaway' stats, the Vikings -2 and Green Bay an ugly -14... anyone that thinks that you can get to a Super Bowl with numbers like those is delusional. No team has ever made the Championship Round that was negative in turnovers. Since 1990, Green Bay has won the third meeting each time it has played a club twice in a season and then again in the playoffs (1993 and 1994 against Detroit; 1997 against Tampa Bay). However, I can't see Green Bay being favored by more than the 3 points we have seen both games decided by and a backdoor cover is ALWAYS possible with these two teams that know each other so well. I am passing on the side wager, but as both games this year ended on 65 total points and the last 9 have gone OVER the posted total, I will play on the OVER. With both teams having prolific offenses, bottom-dweller defenses (GB ranks 25th and the Vikings 28th), every page in both playbooks available and with a reasonably low total of 50, I will look for a repeat of what we have seen twice this year already. Packers 34, Vikings 31.