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4**** San Diego Chargers -6 (upgraded rating, and as always, buying points were differential exists)
Opinions Only: Chargers UNDER
Let's move forward with a new beginning in the NFL Wild Card round of the playoffs....or as Jim Mora would say, "PLAYOFFS!!??!!!?? PLAYOFFS!!???!!!?!?!?!?"
In the late game on Saturday, there is value in the San Diego SuperChargers laying the six at home. The Jets have a offense that seems to get stuck in the mud when they reach the 20 yard line and a QB that apparently has lingering problems with his shoulder. I was impressed that Coach Marty went out on the last Sunday of the season and beat Kansas City in a game that meant nothing and while he was using backups in most situations. Donnie Edwards has been playing linebacker like a man possessed, second in the entire NFL in tackles and obviously, leading the team. Both teams were close in turnover margin, New York at +17 and San Diego at +15, so little difference there. The Jets do rank higher at 7th in total defense with the Chargers at 18th in the league, but the largest difference to me is offensively. While the Jets did beat San Diego in week 2 on the Chargers home field, there are a couple of things to keep in mind. Drew Brees was knocked out of that game with a concussion and it was in the midst of the Jets' 5-0 start to the year, while they have since stumbled home losing six of their last eleven games. It was confirmed last night that John Abraham is now OUT for this game and that will hurt both the run defense and pass rush of the Jets, so another advantage to San Diego. I had been concerned about weather but checking on the Chargers wins this season, they have won in rain AND snow, so I will make a play on this game. Additionally, against the Rams the Jets allowed a season-high 432 yards in the air, 146 more than any other game. The Jets corners couldn't handle the deep passing routes used by the Rams receivers. It was a difficult game for corner Donnie Abraham and safety Reggie Tongue in particular as they were often out of position or just flat out beat. With a healthy McCardell, plus Eric Parker and Antonio Gates, look for the Chargers to set up the pass by running LT and Brees taking some chances downfield on the NY corners and safeties.
The wild-card round has featured 18 contests in which teams played once in the regular season. The club that captured the regular-season matchup also prevailed in the wild-card game 10 times. I still feel that current form gives most advantages to San Diego. Brees is the 3rd highest rated passer in the entire NFL behind Manning and Culpepper and the Jets have scored 17 points or less in seven of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, San Diego has been on a pointspread tear, going 13-1-2 against the spread this year! Does that give us value here? Debatable, since many in the sportsbook industry figured this game at 3.5 to 4... but the key is picking the winner, as in over 78% of playoff games, the winner of the game ****** the spread. If you feel that the Jets are the better play, then a MoneyLine play would definitely be part of your wagering strategy... generally speaking, the points won't matter. If you feel the game will be close, then take the cushion and hope for a win or a field goal loss. Since the 1978 season, AFC home teams are 31-12 in the wild-card round; NFC home teams are 28-15. The Chargers have lost just one home game this year and that was the matchup in week two against these same Jets. New York's offensive coordinator (and many would say he IS offensive) Paul Hackett has been accused of being unimaginative and blamed for lousy play calling, charges that have followed him since he was the head coach at USC. Of the 29 points that the Jets scored against the Rams last Sunday, 13 came from special teams and defense, 9 more came from three field goals. In four quarters and OT, the offense came up with ONE touchdown. If the Jets settle for too many field goals, the Chargers will make short work of them. The Jets scored only two TDs total in three of their last four games. Additionally, Pennington was sacked SIX times, and since the Rams had only managed 28 sacks for the season beforehand, that shows me that the Jets have some big problems in pass blocking. Expect San Diego to take advantage of what they saw on film from last week and blitz any time the Jets are in 2nd or 3rd and long. Say what you will, Pennington has not been the same QB since the rotator cuff injury. His throws are sailing on him and that won't work with smallish receivers like Moss and Chrebet.
While it's true that the Chargers didn't have great success in the regular season against this year's playoff teams, there are some reasons. They lost by one AT Atlanta and vs. the Colts in OT, also AT Indianapolis, two very tough road venues and both of which are dome-based teams. They split with Denver, each winning at home, and then the week two loss at home to the Jets when they lost Brees and were playing a team that was playing much better than the current form. Not as bad as it may look on paper. Jets come to the table with a cross-country flight off a short week, offensive questions to say the least and if Abraham is unable to play or the Jets can't get any defensive pressure on Brees, he will pick the secondary apart with all his receiving options. Unless an complete offensive revival hits New York this week, highly unlikely with the limitations placed on the Jets offense (whether it's Hackett's fault or Pennington's injury) you really have to go with the home team here. San Diego 23, New York Jets 16.
Opinions Only: Chargers UNDER
Let's move forward with a new beginning in the NFL Wild Card round of the playoffs....or as Jim Mora would say, "PLAYOFFS!!??!!!?? PLAYOFFS!!???!!!?!?!?!?"
In the late game on Saturday, there is value in the San Diego SuperChargers laying the six at home. The Jets have a offense that seems to get stuck in the mud when they reach the 20 yard line and a QB that apparently has lingering problems with his shoulder. I was impressed that Coach Marty went out on the last Sunday of the season and beat Kansas City in a game that meant nothing and while he was using backups in most situations. Donnie Edwards has been playing linebacker like a man possessed, second in the entire NFL in tackles and obviously, leading the team. Both teams were close in turnover margin, New York at +17 and San Diego at +15, so little difference there. The Jets do rank higher at 7th in total defense with the Chargers at 18th in the league, but the largest difference to me is offensively. While the Jets did beat San Diego in week 2 on the Chargers home field, there are a couple of things to keep in mind. Drew Brees was knocked out of that game with a concussion and it was in the midst of the Jets' 5-0 start to the year, while they have since stumbled home losing six of their last eleven games. It was confirmed last night that John Abraham is now OUT for this game and that will hurt both the run defense and pass rush of the Jets, so another advantage to San Diego. I had been concerned about weather but checking on the Chargers wins this season, they have won in rain AND snow, so I will make a play on this game. Additionally, against the Rams the Jets allowed a season-high 432 yards in the air, 146 more than any other game. The Jets corners couldn't handle the deep passing routes used by the Rams receivers. It was a difficult game for corner Donnie Abraham and safety Reggie Tongue in particular as they were often out of position or just flat out beat. With a healthy McCardell, plus Eric Parker and Antonio Gates, look for the Chargers to set up the pass by running LT and Brees taking some chances downfield on the NY corners and safeties.
The wild-card round has featured 18 contests in which teams played once in the regular season. The club that captured the regular-season matchup also prevailed in the wild-card game 10 times. I still feel that current form gives most advantages to San Diego. Brees is the 3rd highest rated passer in the entire NFL behind Manning and Culpepper and the Jets have scored 17 points or less in seven of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, San Diego has been on a pointspread tear, going 13-1-2 against the spread this year! Does that give us value here? Debatable, since many in the sportsbook industry figured this game at 3.5 to 4... but the key is picking the winner, as in over 78% of playoff games, the winner of the game ****** the spread. If you feel that the Jets are the better play, then a MoneyLine play would definitely be part of your wagering strategy... generally speaking, the points won't matter. If you feel the game will be close, then take the cushion and hope for a win or a field goal loss. Since the 1978 season, AFC home teams are 31-12 in the wild-card round; NFC home teams are 28-15. The Chargers have lost just one home game this year and that was the matchup in week two against these same Jets. New York's offensive coordinator (and many would say he IS offensive) Paul Hackett has been accused of being unimaginative and blamed for lousy play calling, charges that have followed him since he was the head coach at USC. Of the 29 points that the Jets scored against the Rams last Sunday, 13 came from special teams and defense, 9 more came from three field goals. In four quarters and OT, the offense came up with ONE touchdown. If the Jets settle for too many field goals, the Chargers will make short work of them. The Jets scored only two TDs total in three of their last four games. Additionally, Pennington was sacked SIX times, and since the Rams had only managed 28 sacks for the season beforehand, that shows me that the Jets have some big problems in pass blocking. Expect San Diego to take advantage of what they saw on film from last week and blitz any time the Jets are in 2nd or 3rd and long. Say what you will, Pennington has not been the same QB since the rotator cuff injury. His throws are sailing on him and that won't work with smallish receivers like Moss and Chrebet.
While it's true that the Chargers didn't have great success in the regular season against this year's playoff teams, there are some reasons. They lost by one AT Atlanta and vs. the Colts in OT, also AT Indianapolis, two very tough road venues and both of which are dome-based teams. They split with Denver, each winning at home, and then the week two loss at home to the Jets when they lost Brees and were playing a team that was playing much better than the current form. Not as bad as it may look on paper. Jets come to the table with a cross-country flight off a short week, offensive questions to say the least and if Abraham is unable to play or the Jets can't get any defensive pressure on Brees, he will pick the secondary apart with all his receiving options. Unless an complete offensive revival hits New York this week, highly unlikely with the limitations placed on the Jets offense (whether it's Hackett's fault or Pennington's injury) you really have to go with the home team here. San Diego 23, New York Jets 16.