Announcement

**InsiderEdge** · 12-05-2004, 07:46 PM

We sweep the Sunday card going 4-0 on the day. The only disappointment was a push with our AFC Game of the Year. Denver had 1st and goal from the 7-yard line twice in the fourth quarter and came away with only 3 points total. It’s not a loss though. NFL is now at 58.8% on the regular season as our football run reaches its 4th month.

Atlanta Flacons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1:00 PM ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers –1 –110 (2 Units)

It’s now or never for Tampa Bay. While their 4-7 record may not seem playoff caliber, they are very much in the ***** of things as long as they continue to finish strong. Their defense is 5th in the NFL, allowing 285.8 ypg and it is the defense that will dictate whether or not they will head to the postseason. Even with all of the fanfare the Falcons are receiving on offense with Michael Vick, they are just a very average offense. They are averaging 320.5 ypg, 18th in the NFL and that includes 174.7 ypg through the air, 4th worst in the league. The rushing game is strong but not as strong as it is at home and Tampa Bay doesn’t give up anything at home, allowing 84.0 ypg and 32. ypc.

Only five of 16 NFC teams have winning records with five weeks remaining in the regular season, compared with eight teams better than .500 in the AFC. What does this mean? The Bucs are one of seven NFC teams with seven losses, hoping to put together strong finishes to maybe salvage a playoff spot. The Bucs feel their chances are as good as any of the others battling for what most likely will be the last wild-card spot. They have won four of seven after an 0-4 start to stay in the race. After losing their first two home games, the Bucs have won three straight at Raymond James Stadium so the low number here is very appealing. Not only is this a do or die game for the playoffs, there is extra incentive. Stopping the Falcons from celebrating their first division title since 1998 is just part of Tampa Bay's motivation to win. It starts with defending home turf against Atlanta, delaying the Falcons from clinching the division. Mention the first-place Falcons can clinch the NFC South on Sunday, and linebacker Derrick Brooks makes it clear this is more than just another game to Tampa Bay. "We did talk about it and we don't want that to happen in our stadium," Brooks said. "If that is the case, then let them do it somewhere else." The offense has come to life thanks to a change in quarterback. Brian Griese started strong and has remained such, ever since taking over for the injured Chris Simms on Oct. 10. He ranks third in the NFC with a 104.2 passer rating, having completed 69.8 percent of his passes for 12 touchdowns, with five interceptions. They have been limited to under 20 points only twice since then while averaging 29.3 ppg in their three home games with Griese at the controls. Part of the reason for the lack of success in the passing game for the Falcons is their receivers. Besides Peerless Price, they have nothing. Dez White, Atlanta's other starting receiver, ranks 85th at his position with just 19 catches. Brian Finneran, a starter in 2002-03 and Price's primary backup this year, has 12. Perhaps most startling of all is the low production of rookie Michael Jenkins. Selected late in the first round following a draft-day trade with Indianapolis, Jenkins has just one reception. Despite with some breakdowns, the Bucs' secondary has limited opponents to 166.1 passing yards a game, 2nd in the league. New Tampa Bay kicker Jay Taylor isn't some young rookie just out of college. He's been in and out of NFL camps. He's kicked in NFL Europe and the Arena League. He even spent a year in the XFL with the Orlando Rage.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears 1:00 PM ET

Chicago Bears +8 –115 (2 Units)

There is some serious bad blood between these two teams and if there was any chance that Chicago would not be ready fro this game, that notion can be thrown right out the window. There are 6 other teams with the same record as Chicago so they know a win here is not only possible, it’s a must. Whether or not they can slow down the Minnesota offense is the question. Even if they can’t contain it completely, they might have found a solution with their own offense and there is talk about a new energy at practice from the offensive unit. With Chad Hutchinson making the start at quarterback, there was a sense of excitement among the receivers who have been underutilized while playing with quarterbacks who simply couldn't get them the ball. The Vikings give the Bears another opportunity for the offense to succeed as they couldn’t do it against the Colts two weeks ago. Change is good and the extra 4 days of preparation for Chicago can only help.

MLB Brian Urlacher practiced at full speed Wednesday and Thursday and while he is questionable, teammates say he will go. Urlacher should be back in the starting lineup Sunday if there are no setbacks. The Bears are 0-4 without Urlacher and they have been outscored 62-17 by the Colts and Cowboys with Urlacher out of the lineup. In those four games opponents have met little resistance while running all over the Bears, averaging 170 yards per game on the ground. When Urlacher is present, opponents' rushing yards drop to an average of 115.7. That’s incredible for one player to make such a huge difference. The Bears have allowed 10 touchdowns in four games without Urlacher including 8 TD’s in the last two games. In seven games with Urlacher, the Bears have permitted just 12 touchdowns. The Vikings, however, have developed into a pass-first offense this season, using the running game as a secondary offensive weapon. Injuries along the offensive line and to tight end Jim Kleinsasser have contributed to the Vikings calling a pass on nearly 70 percent of their plays this season, including scrambles by Culpepper. That could fit well into the Bears plans, as they are allowing just 196.5 ypg, 9th in the NFL. Smith has maintained his desire to get the 11 best players on the field at the same time. The return of starting cornerback Charles Tillman on Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings challenged Smith to devise a way to do that defensively, and he found a creative way. Expect veteran cornerback R.W. McQuarters to start at free safety against the Vikings to make room for Tillman, who will start opposite Jerry Azumah. Rookie cornerback Nathan Vasher, the team's interceptions leader with four, will be in the mix on nickel downs. Todd Johnson, who has not made enough big plays for the coaching staff's liking subbing for the injured Mike Brown, will take a seat. The move to Hutchinson gives the offensive line a possible reprieve as well. The change should alleviate some of the sacks as the Bears have allowed 43 sacks and are on pace to surpass the club high of 53 in 1983, but Smith refuses to pin the struggles on the line. Quarterbacks Jonathan Quinn (15 sacks) and Craig Krenzel (23 sacks) have contributed to the problem more than anyone else. The line shouldn’t expect much pressure on Sunday as the Vikings rank 21st in the league in sacks per play. This always has the makings of a close game as 7 of the last 10 meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less either way with the home team winning the last 5. The Bears have won the last 3 at home, two of them when they were in the dog role.

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams 1:00 PM ET

San Francisco 49ers +10.5 –103 (2 Units)

The Rams have lost two in a row and trail Seattle by one game in the NFC West, the league's worst division. They have fallen so far behind in most of their recent games, that it's been almost impossible to have a balance between the run and the pass. As bad as a 1-10 record looks on paper, the 49ers have hung around in the majority of their games. Eight have been decided by 10 points or less with 5 of those coming by a touchdown or less. San Francisco has to get some offense going and changing their game plan will help. Protecting the ball will also be important but they should be ok in that area. The Rams have a league-low 10 takeaways in 11 games. After 11 games last season, the Rams had 33 takeaways.

The Rams haven't been productive enough on offense to carry their defense. Their yards per point average is one of highest in the NFL, coming in at 5th with a 17.6 ypp average. Despite having 6th ranked total offense in the league, they are only 12th in points scored with 21.5 ppg. But even that number is inflated slightly as they have scored 17 points or fewer in five of their 11 games this season. They have scored 28 or more only twice all season long. The 49ers defense isn’t that bad despite giving up a lot of points. They are 14th in the NFL in total yards allowed, including 15th in rushing and 17th in passing. St. Louis will be without one of their playmakers as running back Marshall Faulk is unlikely to play. The Rams downgraded him from probable to questionable because of a knee injury. Faulk had 20 carries for only 13 yards the past two weeks. It’s not coincidental that when his production is down, the Rams offense goes down with it. With him not even in the lineup, who knows how they will function. More of the pressure will be put on Marc Bulger. The 49ers blitzed 31 times in 60 plays last weekend against Miami. Erickson and defensive coordinator Willy Robinson indicated that there would be no repeat of that against the Rams, because such aggressiveness might leave the cornerbacks exposed against top-flight receivers Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. San Francisco will welcome back some needed secondary help. 49ers cornerback Jimmy Williams is expected to suit up against the Rams. Williams sat out the three previous games but will return in nickel and dime packages Sunday. To help their staggering offense, head coach Dennis Erickson will shuffle the starters along the offensive line, simplify the play-calling and rotate backup running back Maurice Hicks into the game early to keep running back Kevan Barlow fresh. Barlow has been in the news this week for being the biggest disappointment to this offense and now that it has reached the public, Barlow should go out and have a big game. The 49ers keep a statistic called ``yards after first hit.'' Over the past four games, Barlow has averaged 1.4 yards after the first hit. In the past two games, Hicks has averaged 4.8 yards after the first hit. I guarantee that Barlow will do whatever it takes to stay up this week. Last season, Barlow started just four games but rushed for 1,024 yards, and his 5.1-yards-per-carry average tied for the third best in team history for backs with at least 1,000 yards. The ability is obviously there. Quarterback Tim Rattay said the players have not given up on a 1-10 season with five games remaining. "It's not for lack of caring. Everyone cares,'' he said. "For me, and for this team, we're just trying to win games. I'm not looking to next year. By no means do I think the season is over and we're looking to next year.''

AFC Game of the Year

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers 4:05 PM ET

Denver Broncos +3 –110 (3 Units)

This could very well be the season for the Broncos. Denver is in danger of virtual elimination, since a loss would put the Broncos two games behind San Diego with four games to play. However, with a victory, the Broncos can erase their last-second loss to the Raiders last Sunday night and will hold the tiebreaker by sweeping their games against the Chargers. Denver matches up very well with San Diego as they have the balance on offense to keep the suddenly strong Chargers defense on their toes. Defensively, they are 8th in the NFL and this will be the toughest test San Diego has seen in about two months. Head coach Mike Shanahan knows how to get his team motivated after losses, as Denver is 13-4 ATS off a division loss & 10-2 ATS as a divisional underdog. This is a great spot for the Broncos.

The 3-4 defensive scheme run by first-year coordinator Wade Phillips has allowed no more than 122 rushing yards in a game this season. That success comes after San Diego stopped nearly no one last season, ranked in a tie for 25th against the rush at 138.6 yards a game. Why such a big difference? Teams are forced to throw on them after the offense provides big early leads. While that may be a compliment to the offense, it’s more of a jab at the defenses that San Diego has faced. In their last six games, they have gone against Kansas City (30th in total defense), New Orleans (32nd), Carolina (22nd), Atlanta (19th) and Oakland (26th) twice. And it isn’t a surprise that their least amount of points came against Carolina and Atlanta, the two best of the bunch, as they scored a total of 37 points in those two games. Opposing offenses have been forced out of their game plans and needed to throw more. That’s why the passing defense is 27th in the NFL. Denver brings balance and a defense that can shut down the offense, which will in turn keep the Chargers defense off balance. Denver has averaged 29 points a game in its last four and they are remarkably balanced, ranking sixth in rushing (138.8 yards per game) and seventh in passing (245.6). Quarterback Jake Plummer ranks sixth in the AFC and has thrown twice as many touchdown passes as interceptions; Reuben Droughns is closing in on a 1,000-yard rushing season; and wideouts Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie have combined for 11 TDs and nearly 1,500 yards. They beat the Chargers without a dominant running game in Week 3 and now have established Droughns as their feature back. The Broncos are eighth in the NFL in total defense, permitting 297.6 yards per game. They are particularly stingy against the run, ranking fifth at 96.8 per game. In the first meeting, Denver held the Chargers to season lows of 13 points and 214 net yards. Defenses have not gotten to Chargers quarterback Drew Brees with the pass rush. The last team to do so was the Broncos, who sacked him four times in Week 3 and the Broncos coaches will go all out to make his life miserable this week. For Denver, pass defense was a particular problem against the Raiders but in all fairness, the snow did not help matters. Slippery conditions always favor the offense and that was the case last Sunday night. San Diego should not be able penetrate the Broncos run defense. LaDanian Tomlinson, who has battled a groin injury for much of the season, was held to 60 rushing yards on 22 carries in Denver's Sept. 26 win. His 3.8-yard rushing average would be his lowest since he averaged 3.6 yards in his rookie year (2001). Since the game against the Titans, Tomlinson also has had only one run for more than 16 yards and has had only one 100-yard rushing effort - 164 yards against Oakland on Nov. 21 - in the past seven games. Flat out, the most important factor is that the Broncos have been in this position before and have the edge in experience, a factor that cannot be understated in situations like this.

Mississippi St. Bulldogs vs. Arizona Wildcats 4:30 PM ET

Arizona Wildcats –3 –110 (2 Units)

One thing we love to look at is matchups in the frontcourt. Mississippi St. will have advantages down low in a lot of games this season but in the ones that they don’t, they are at a big disadvantage. Lawrence Roberts did not start in their opener against Fairfield and the Bulldogs almost lost and he was then shut down against Syracuse in their only defeat of the season. Against Arizona, there will be no advantage at all and as a matter of fact, the slight edge goes to the Wildcats with Hassan Adams and Channing Frye. The duo is averaging a combined 23.0 ppg and 13.6 rpg and while Roberts has the ability to take over a game, he can’t do it here. Adams is one of, if not the best, defender in the PAC 10. The difference will then take place in the backcourt and that is where Arizona will dominate. Shooting guard Salim Stoudamire and point guard Mustafa Shakur have a decisive edge over Gary Ervin and Shane Power. Shakur and Ervin are both sophomores but this is Ervin’s first season running the show and he is still getting used to it while Shakur looks once again comfortable. The Bulldogs are near the bottom of the SEC in scoring, shooting and assists and that is with a schedule that besides Syracuse is very weak at best. Arizona has played Virginia, Wake Forest and Michigan and even though they lost two of those, the big game experience comes in big. Arizona lost those two games because the better backcourt came through, which in those cases was not Arizona. They have the edge tonight. The line is very low due to the fact this game is in Anaheim but that should not make a difference.

Announcement

AFC Game of the Year!!

AFC Game of the Year!!

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