Announcement

**InsiderEdge** · 11-20-2004, 08:53 PM

Well it’s sad to report that our first GOY selection goes down as San Jose St. and Tulsa score a measly 13 second half points and fall short of the over. Our GOY releases are now at a disappointing 85.7%. We however are guaranteed another winning day as early plays go 4-2 with a game still pending. While there is disappointment as our unblemished record takes a hit, we find satisfaction with another profitable day carrying our NCAA Football record to over 59% on the season. Good luck finding another service to match that.

Michigan St. Spartans at Penn St. Nittany Lions 12:00 PM ET

Penn St. Nittany Lions +3.5 –110 (2 Units)

Penn St. got into the win column last weekend at Indiana and while the victory over the Hoosiers isn’t going to turn many heads, it did show that this team is still playing and has not quit on the season. The defense stepped up yet again. Trailing 22-16 late in the fourth quarter, Indiana had first-and-goal at the 1-yard line, and the Penn State defense stopped the Hoosiers on four consecutive running plays. Players celebrated like they had just earned a trip to the Rose Bowl. Michigan St. is coming off a huge win at home over then undefeated Wisconsin and they are very capable of throwing up a clunker here, especially on the road.

Michigan St. has played much better at home than on the road. Besides their game against rival Michigan, where they blew a huge fourth quarter lead, the Spartans are averaging just 407 ypg and 20 ppg on the road this season. They scored 14 and 16 points against Rutgers and Iowa while amassing 30 against Indiana, one of the worse defenses in the country. The Spartans still have a chance to play in a bowl after becoming the first team to defeat Wisconsin this year but the Penn State defense has motivation, too. With Wisconsin's 49-14 loss to Michigan State, Penn State and Auburn are the only teams in the nation that have not allowed more than 21 points in a game this season. They have allowed a total of 40 points in their last 3 home games against the top three passing teams in the Big Ten - Purdue, Iowa and Northwestern. Last year, Penn State allowed 11 individual 100-yard rushing performances in 12 games. This year, the Nittany Lions have allowed only four individuals to surpass the 100-yard mark in 10 games, and two of them are among the top three backs in the Big Ten. They secondary will get some help as hard hitting free safety Andrew Guman might be back in the starting lineup Saturday. He has not played since sustaining a chest contusion and a partially collapsed lung three weeks ago against Ohio State. Even with a 3-7 record, Penn State has actually outscored its opponents, 158-155. The Penn State offense actually looked like an offense last week, producing three long drives and scoring three touchdowns. Michigan St. hasn't won at Penn State since 1965. The Spartans are now 8-1 against top-10 teams since 1997 but overall, Michigan St. is a very average 46-38 in the same span. The Spartans have a reputation for tripping the big boys, then just tripping the following week. Nobody seems to be even giving Penn St., and Hawaii for that matter, a chance against Michigan St. as there are numerous articles out there going over all of the different Spartans bowl scenarios. Both games must be won and by the talks of things, that is already a done deal.

Michigan Wolverines at Ohio St. Buckeyes 1:00 PM ET

Ohio St. Buckeyes +5.5 –108 (2 Units)

This is arguably the best rivalry in all of college football and when these two meet each other, records can be thrown right out the window. While extra motivation isn’t necessary, Ohio St. has the edge of being at home with a chance to spoil the Michigan season and end their hopes of going to the Rose Bowl and winning the Big Ten Conference. Senior cornerback Dustin Fox sees similarities between the opportunity the Buckeyes have Saturday against Michigan and the one presented to them three years ago. The Buckeyes walked into Ann Arbor, Mich., with a 6-4 record and upset the Wolverines, 26-20, putting a positive light on a trying first year for Ohio State coach Jim Tressel. ``It seemed like everything (negative) was washed away,'' Fox said. ``A win over Michigan can do that.''

The Buckeyes played much more option football than in previous games. The Buckeyes also ran a one-back personnel grouping with twin wideouts on each side so their different looks have given Michigan more things to prepare for. Ohio State replaced sophomore quarterback Justin Zwick with Troy Smith four games ago. Smith hasn't been a stellar passer, but he has been more efficient than Zwick. His pass efficiency rating of 125.07 is almost 20 points higher than Zwick's. He has thrown six touchdowns and three interceptions while Zwick passed for only five scores to six picks. The Buckeyes offense moved the ball consistently in the second half last week against Purdue, generating 230 yards and two touchdowns. The Buckeyes will make a case for the defense behind A.J. Hawk and a talented corps of linebackers. Ohio St.'s three linebackers, Hawk, Bobby Carpenter and middle man Anthony Schlegel, all rank among the conference's top 25 tacklers and they will be asked to slow down freshman running back Mike Hart, who leads the big Ten in rushing. "Michigan has been running all over people, so our big effort will be to stop the run and try to make them one-dimensional," Hawk said. "We'd like to try and make a true freshman quarterback beat us." That is key – freshman quarterback. Chad Henne has no idea what to expect. Michigan head coach Lloyd Carr stated that he isn’t sure how the newcomers will react to their first taste of the rivalry on the road. "We have the responsibility to play well because of our experience," said Hawk, whose 125 tackles lead the Big Ten. Ohio State's secondary will likely welcome back three one-time starters who have missed between one and three games because of injuries. Fox said he will return to his cornerback slot for Saturday's contest against Michigan after missing last week's game at Purdue with a groin injury. Coach Jim Tressel said that free safety Nate Salley and strong safety Donte Whitner could be back in the lineup as well. Who is the pressure on in this game? "Ohio State doesn't really have much to lose, and we have a lot to lose" Michigan sophomore LaMarr Woodley said. Michigan may be undefeated in the conference but they aren’t dominating everyone. There haven't been enough easy wins over average Big Ten teams needing a late score to beat Minnesota, a late stop to beat Purdue, and three overtimes to beat Michigan State.

Ball St. Cardinals at Central Michigan Chippewas 1:00 PM ET

Central Michigan Chippewas –3.5 –106 (2 Units)

Ball St. has just two wins this season, both at home coming against teams with a combined 1-19 record (Central Florida and Western Michigan). Their defense has been atrocious on the road, allowing 49 ppg in their 5 road trips. They have been against much better competition than Central Michigan, but the Chippewas can score as well. They have played only three home games, averaging 30.7 ppg. One of those was against 1-AA SMS, but Ball St. can easily fall into that category. The offense is non-existent, averaging 304.4 ypg compared to Central Michigan who is gaining 392 ypg, 39th in the country. The Cardinals have scored more than 21 points only 3 times this season.

Despite winning against Central Florida, The Cardinals managed only 10 first downs, tying their second-lowest total in the past 44 games. They managed only 254 yards, converted just 3-of-13 third-down plays and possessed the ball a season-low 24:07. One of Ball State's problems on offense has been an inability to get off to a productive start. The Cardinals have scored just 18 points all season in the first quarter. Ball State scored at least 23 points in three of its past five games, but 51 of the 78 total points in those games came while playing catch-up in the second half. They had to play catch up against Central Florida as well, scoring the winning touchdown midway through the 4th quarter. They have been outyarded in every game but one, the exception being their 4th game of the season against Western Michigan. That isn’t saying much as the Broncos have been outgained by a total of 1,368 total yards in their 9 games against 1-A competition. In the MAC, The Cardinals are 12th in total offense (304.4 yards per game), 9th in rush offense (114.2) and 12th n pass offense (190.2). Central Michigan is 6th in the conference in total offense and while that might seem average, the 5 teams ranked ahead of them have a combined MAC record of 28-7. The Chippewas finished third in the MAC in rushing with 195.8 yards per game in 2003 and stands third this year at 164.6. Tailback Jerry Seymour is second in rushing with 106.7 yards and all-purpose yards at 144.5. He's also tied for 12th in receiving with 4.3 catches per game. Defensively, the Cardinals aren’t much better as they are 13th in total defense (460.7) in the MAC. That includes being 12th pass defense (265.9) and 13th in rush defense (194.8). Central Michigan QB Kent Smith will fire at will as the Cardinal pass defense is last in the nation in pass efficiency and has only picked off one pass all season long. Part of the problem with Ball St. is youth. The Cardinals list 31 sophomores and freshmen on their offensive and defensive two-deep rosters. While this game means nothing in the conference picture, it is a big game for the future as the Chippewas are looking to turn the corner. "This is an important game in a lot of ways for our football team," said first-year head coach Brian Kelly. "These seniors would like to be remembered as the class that helped turn around this program. A win Saturday would give us three conference wins, two more than last year's team won.”

Colorado St. Rams at Air Force Falcons 3:00 PM ET

Air Force Falcons +1.5 –110 (2 Units)

This rivalry usually has bowl implications but this season it is a different story. Both teams come in with losing records after disappointing seasons. While the game is meaningless in the standings, it is the last game for those players. A win might take some of the sting from a disappointing season. That can be said for both sides but the Falcons will have a big motivational edge as the focus against Colorado State will be on their 19 seniors. There is something extra for the seniors as Air Force has lost three straight games to Colorado St. meaning this is the last chance for the graduates to win one.

The Falcons, as usual, lead the MWC and are fourth nationally in rushing with 267.8 yards per game. This offense is different from past attacks, however, in that passing is a big part of the scheme. But the Rams need to defend both the run and pass as Air Force is ranked 18th in the country in pass efficiency offense. They have gained more than 400 yards in seven games and been able to stay in most games because of its scoring punch. The Colorado St. defense, as always, will be tested. The Falcons piled up 353 rushing yards against San Diego State but suffered an uncharacteristic six turnovers and also had a punt blocked. Still, they had a chance to win until a last-second Aztecs interception on the goal line. After ranking near the bottom nationally in both total and scoring defense earlier this season, the Rams now stand third in the MWC in scoring defense (25.7 points per game) and fourth in total defense (376.5 yards per game). The recent solid play has included two games holding teams below 300 yards. However, those came against San Diego St. and UNLV, who are a combined 2-10 in the MWC. The Rams came into the game last week ranked 113th nationally in turnover margin (minus-14) after suffering 26 turnovers and gaining just 12 in their first nine games. Against UNLV, however, they were plus-3, grabbing an interception and a pair of fumbles. However, they are still 109th while Air Force has been consistent in the turnover battle with the exception of last week, which was just an aberration. Air Force quarterback Adam Fitch bruised his ribs against San Diego State on Saturday but practiced Tuesday and Wednesday and had little trouble in passing and running drills. He was doubtful at the beginning of the week but his experience will play a big part. “We know there’s a lot of pressure on this last game for us,” senior fullback Adam Cole said. “We are going to go out winners. It’s a pride thing.” Only two players on Air Force’s roster were around in 2000, the last time they defeated the Rams so this team is hungry. Senior defensive end Nathan Terrazone hopes his team's concentration level is improved Saturday against a team Air Force has lost to for three consecutive years. "My class hasn't ever beaten CSU, so I have that extra motivation," he said. This is only the third road game for the Rams since September 11th.

Iowa St. Cyclones at Kansas St. Wildcats 12:00 PM ET

Iowa St. Cyclones +10.5 –104 (2 Units)

Iowa State, leading the North with a 3-3 record and 5-4 overall mark, continues its quest for a championship this week at Kansas State. The Cyclones control their own destiny and if they win out, they get the crown and head to their first ever Big XII Championship. They have had two weeks to prepare for this one. Kansas St. is coming off an incredible last second loss to Colorado dashing any chances of a winning season or a bowl. Their season has been a big disappointment. Of the Wildcats' four wins, only one, agaisnt Division I-AA Western Kentucky, came against a team with better than a .500 record. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Wildcats laid down in this one.

The Kansas State players and coaches say they're motivated, but it'll be hard, even on Senior Day, to get up for a relatively meaningless game. That loss was devastating last week and it will no doubt carry into this game. Some of the reaction into this week proves that. "It hurts ... hurts," said KSU offensive coordinator Del Miller on missing a bowl opportunity. "Disappointing with no words to define it," said senior receiver Antoine Polite. "This season was filled with ups and downs and this game was a culmination of the entire year." Defensive coordinator Bob Elliott added, "This is hard on everybody, but we're not a good football team and don't deserve to be in a bowl game." How’s that for a confident team? The defense has been atrocious and is playing with no focus right now. In seven Big 12 games, Kansas St. has allowed an average of 31.7 points this season. That's the highest average allowed since 1990 when the Wildcats allowed an identical 31.7 points per game. Five of Kansas St.'s six losses this season have been by at least 10 points - 24 Fresno State, 13 Kansas, 12 Texas A&M, 10 Oklahoma, and 10 Texas Tech. The continuing improvement of redshirt freshman quarterback Bret Meyer has been key during Iowa State’s winning streak. Coming off a career-best 345-yard passing performance against Nebraska, Meyer has now completed 107 of 204 passes for 1,372 yards and nine touchdowns, with only five interceptions. At the time of the decision to change quarterbacks, Iowa State was converting just 43.8 percent of its scoring chances inside an opponent's 20-yard line. In 16 trips to the red zone, the offense had managed five touchdowns and two field goals. The change to Meyer has helped Iowa St. get much better in the red zone. After failing to score a point in five trips inside Colorado's 20-yard line, the Cyclones have scored 10 of their last 11 trips. Although his team is riding a high right now, head coach Dan McCarney said the bye week comes at a good time for his team. "It’s important we get some rest for these kids," McCarney said. "I think we’ve squeezed every ounce of energy and effort that they could give us in recent weeks. We started this season as an underdog to a I-AA team, Northern Iowa. We've slowly but surely tried to get better each week and for the most part we've been able to do that." Iowa State has committed just two turnovers during its winning streak, while the defense has taken the ball away nine times. It would be easy for ISU to get caught up in the excitement of what may lie ahead but players insist they aren't looking past anything. "Not after what K-State's done to us in the past," strong safety Nik Moser said. "You're not going to look past a team that's dominated you."

San Jose St. Spartans at Tulsa Golden Hurricane 3:00 PM ET

Over 67.5 San Jose St. Tulsa –110 (3 Units)

The ball should be moving up and down the field in this WAC game with two of the worse defenses in the country taking the field. San Jose St. is in the bottom half of the league in passing yards but it is a big strike offense, averaging 7.8 ypa, which is 2nd in the conference. Tulsa ranks in the middle in both categories, but like the Spartans, they are completing just over 53% of their passes, which is right at the bottom in WAC games. Incompletions are ok though as they stop the clock. They are also two of the bigger strike defenses as San Jose St. is allowing 4.7 ypa and the Golden Hurricane are allowing 7.3 ypa. The pass happy WAC league average is only 7.1 ypa.

The Tulsa defense is ranked 80th in the country, allowing 397.4 ypg and the scoring defense is 105th, giving up 33.9 ppg. In their WAC games, their average is 40.7 ppg and they have given up at least 38 points of five of their six conference games. The offense isn’t far behind, scoring 33.5 in their six WAC games. They have scored 49, 42 and 39 points in their last 3 home games. Their total offense is ranked 77th but their scoring offense is ranked 47th. The Spartans defense is worse if that’s even possible. They are giving up 429.8 ypg, 102nd in the nation and their scoring defense is next to lasting the country, allowing 41.4 ppg. Even taking the Rice and Boise St. games out, they have allowed at least 36 points in five other contests. In their six WAC games, they gave up a whopping 46.8 ppg. That number is a little skewed by those two efforts against Rice and Boise St. but they have allowed 36, 46, 38 and 42 points in their other 4 conference games. The offense is not as strong but they are still averaging 28.9 ppg on the season. The combined offenses are averaging 24.5 yards per point (28.4 NCAA average) while the combined defenses are averaging 22.1 yards per points (29.1 NCAA average). The combined total average of 46.6 is by far the lowest total with the next closest being 52, a rather large gap. This also shows both the offense and defenses are involved in a lot of big plays. Nine times this season, San Jose State has scored a touchdown in length longer than 50 yards. Compared to the last three seasons, the Spartans had five touchdowns of 50 yards or more, eight in 2002 and five in 2001. This has been a shootout recently as the last three years have seen totals of 66, 87 and 90 points being scored in this series. After scoring just 24 points in the first three games for an average of 8.0 points per game, Tulsa has now scored 247 points in the last seven contests for an average of 35.3 points per contest. San Jose St. coach Fritz Hill said he plans to rotate quarterbacks Adam Tafralis and Dale Rogers against Tulsa, just as he did against Boise State. The two combined to throw for 288 yards, the Spartans' second-best passing total this season. San Jose St. was surprisingly effective rushing the ball against the nation's No. 1 run defense last week, gaining 179 yards in 55 carries. The Spartans' aggressive passing attack in the first half, with Rogers and Tafralis combined for 214 yards, helped set up the run. San Jose State has upped its passing game production each of the last three games. The Spartans passed for 173 yards in the 38-20 loss to UTEP, 273 yards at Nevada and 288 yards against Boise State last week. It’s no coincidence the offense is averaging 31 ppg during that span. Tulsa junior Ashlan Davis is a secret weapon not many people know about. Davis has returned 4 kickoffs back for touchdowns this season and he is ranked third in the nation in kickoff returns. On the year, he has 31 kickoff returns for 951 yards and a 30.7 yard average per return. He is a threat to score anytime he touches the ball. Since Steve Kragthorpe took over the helm of the Tulsa program last year, there's a good chance that when playing at home the Hurricane will put a lot of points on the scoreboard. Tulsa has now scored 35 or more points in seven of 10 home games in the last two seasons and in those games Tulsa has averaged 35.6 ppg.

Oregon Ducks at Oregon St. Beavers 7:00 PM ET

Oregon Ducks +3.5 –107 (2 Units)

The Civil War has a little added meaning this year as the winner becomes bowl eligible while the loser gets to sit home during the post season. Both teams will be ready to go here as the motivation is in place on each side but this game will be won at the line of scrimmage and that heavily favors the Ducks. Coming in at 5-5, the Ducks lost heartbreakers to Indiana, California and UCLA and could be 8-2. The running game has been very successful for Oregon while the Beavers have not been able to get anything going on the ground this season. Ducks running back Terrence Whitehead is second in the conference in rushing at 101.1 ypg. As a team, Oregon ranks third in rushing while the Beavers are last.

The stats are fairly similar with a slight edge going to the Ducks. Oregon is fifth in the Pacific-10 Conference in scoring at 26.1 points a game; the Beavers are eighth at 23.1. Oregon is third in total offense, 421.7 yards a game; the Beavers are sixth, 372.3. On defense, Oregon allows fewer points, 22 a game, fourth in the Pac-10, compared with 25.9 for the Beavers. The Ducks are third in total defense, the Beavers fourth. The Oregon pass defense has generally been solid all season long while the run defense won't have too much to worry about against the anemic Oregon State rushing attack. "I would love to emulate what UCLA did, and we will work on establishing the run," Beavers coach Mike Riley said. "We've had our moments, but we have not reached the point where I would say we're a good running team…We're not very good at it, and they (the Ducks) are. That's a concern." With a more balanced attack, the Ducks can do far more than the Beavers can. Quarterback Kellen Clemens turns the ball over less. Yes, he had a bad game against UCLA, but he has five interceptions and 18 touchdowns this season. Derek Anderson, Oregon State's senior quarterback, has thrown 16 interceptions and 21 touchdown passes. Clemens is more difficult to defend against because of his mobility. His running adds another threat, a problem the Ducks don't face against Anderson. Clemens will have his two favorite targets back as well. Head coach Mike Bellotti said he expected wide receiver Demetrius Williams (toe) to return, which is big to be able to stretch out the defense. Both tight end Tim Day, the team leader in touchdown receptions, and Williams returned to practice this week. On the Beavers defense, ankle problems to top linebackers Keith Ellison and Jonathan Pollard are still a problem. Oregon St. has had some off the field problems this week and it has affected their roster. Redshirt freshman Anthony Wheat-Brown, whose 11 receptions Saturday against Stanford were one short of tying the school record, was suspended by Riley along with two other redshirt freshmen, offensive guard Whitfield Usher and defensive tackle Ryan Rainwater. For some Ducks, there is no "if." Some don't care how excited Oregon State is to potentially knock the Ducks down a peg or two. "They can be as hungry as they want to," Oregon cornerback Justin Phinisee said. "But we know what's going to happen. When we go out there, we don't plan on losing; we don't look to lose. We plan on beating this team by as many points as we can."

Announcement

NCAA Total of the Year Today!

NCAA Total of the Year Today!

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