Tweet
YTD CONSENSUS RESULTS (25-19 ATS* and 56.8%)
DHF: 5-0; DHD: 1-1; DRF: 2-1; DRD: 1-2
NHF: 6-7; NHD: 3-2; NRF: 0-5; NRD: 7-1
Week 07: 1-1
Week 08: 8-6
Week 09: 8-6
Week 10: 8-6
-Best Bets 4-0 (Week 11: Buf, Hou)
-Sunday Night Games 3-0 (Week 11: Hou)
-Monday Night Games 2-1 (Week 11: Kan)
Consensus Week 11: Dal, Ari, Pit, Den, Buf, Chi, Cle, Jax, Min, Tam, Oak, Sea, Gia, Phi, Hou, Kan
NOTES:
-My apologies for last week in which I listed NO BEST BETS. When updating this week's records, I noticed that I had inadvertently updated my excell program for 4 bye-week teams: The Falcons, Packers, Jags, and Titans. The end result is that last week I had two BEST BETS that did not show up: FALCONS and VIKINGS. This week I have double checked to make sure my Program is correct for ALL TEAMS.
-An astute observer will notice a common trend throughout these results: Non-Division Road Dogs and Division Home Faves are ON FIRE including a 12-1 ATS record on Consensus games.
-Take special note of F3-T Level 2. It's record is 4-0. I probably should have this as a level 3. My parameters for level 1 are 0.00-0.99. Level 2 is 1.00-1.50. And it goes up from there. But since F3-T deals with TURNOVERS, I probably should've used increments of 0.5 rather than assuming a full 1.0 before going to the next level in rating. In other words, 1.0-1.5 should probably be considered a Level 3 and not a level 2. Moral of the Story: Keep a close eye on those Level 2's with F3-T. It is 4-0 and this week has the Cards and Chiefs.
-Can't help but notice F3-P (points) is a nifty 16-7 ATS in games with a Level 2> rating. In fact, level 2 by itself is 13-5 ATS. Again, this could be a call for a future adjustment (not this season). Remember, a Level 1 rating is 0.01-2.99 and level 2 is 3.00-5.99. Maybe since Level 2 begins at that crucial "Field Goal" DIF it should warrant a level 3 rating. That would mean levels 1 and 2 would look something like this: Level One: 0.01-0.99; Level 2: 1.00-2.99.
Yeah, I like that. But, again, no changes will be made mid-stream. I only point these things out so that you will not necessarily discount something because it does not carry with it the pre-supposed best bet rating of 3 or higher. Hey, this is all experimental and being done on the run, LIVE against Virgin Data. So I would start giving more credit to the Level 2 or greater with F3-T and F3-P. F3-Y (Yardage) is about right, using increments of 25 Yards and the Level 3 begining at 50.0 in my program.
2004 NFL FORMULA III TRACKING
1.) FORMULA III-Y
LEVEL 1 RATING (14-11)
DHF: 4-0; DHD: 1-1; DRF: 0-1; DRD: 0-2
NHF: 2-3; NHD: 3-1; NRF: 0-2; NRD: 4-2
Ari
Pit
Atl
Was
Chi
Cle
Jax
Tam
Sea
Hou
LEVEL 2 RATING (3-8)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-1; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 1-4; NHD: 1-1; NRF: 0-2; NRD: 1-0
Dal
Den
Oak
Kan
LEVEL 3 RATING (4-2)
DHF: 1-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 1-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 1-1; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 1-1
Buf
Min
LEVEL 4 RATING (1-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 1-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
LEVEL 5 RATING (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL LEVEL RATINGS COMBINED FOR FORMULA III-Y (22-22)
DHF: 5-0; DHD: 1-2; DRF: 1-1; DRD: 1-2
NHF: 4-8; NHD: 4-2; NRF: 0-4; NRD: 6-3
Dal
Ari
Pit
Den
Atl
Was
Buf
Chi
Cle
Jax
Min
Tam
Oak
Sea
Hou
Kan
2.) FORMULA III-T
LEVEL 1 RATING (18-22)
DHF: 3-0; DHD: 1-2; DRF: 0-1; DRD: 1-3
NHF: 5-7; NHD: 1-1; NRF: 1-6; NRD: 6-2
Dal
Ind
Pit
Jets
Ten
Det
Den
Sfo
Buf
Oak
Sea
Gia
Phi
Hou
LEVEL 2 RATING (4-0)
DHF: 1-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 1-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 1-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 1-0
Ari
Kan
LEVEL 3 RATING (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
LEVEL 4 RATING (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
LEVEL 5 RATING (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL LEVEL RATINGS COMBINED FOR FORMULA III-T (22-22)
DHF: 4-0; DHD: 1-2; DRF: 1-1; DRD: 1-3
NHF: 5-7; NHD: 2-1; NRF: 1-6; NRD: 7-2
Dal
Ari
Ind
Pit
Jets
Ten
Det
Den
Sfo
Buf
Oak
Sea
Gia
Phi
Hou
Kan
3.) FORMULA III-P
LEVEL 1 RATING (9-12)
DHF: 1-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-1; DRD: 0-2
NHF: 2-5; NHD: 2-1; NRF: 0-2; NRD: 4-1
Dal
Pit
Den
Buf
Chi
Cle
Jax
Min
Tam
Sea
Gia
Phi
LEVEL 2 RATING (13-5)
DHF: 3-0; DHD: 2-0; DRF: 2-0; DRD: 0-1
NHF: 3-3; NHD: 2-0; NRF: 0-1; NRD: 1-0
Ari
Oak
Kan
LEVEL 3 RATING (1-1)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 1-1; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
LEVEL 4 RATING: (1-1)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-1; NRD: 1-0
Hou
LEVEL 5 RATING (1-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 1-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL LEVEL RATINGS COMBINED FOR FORMULA III-P (24-20)
DHF: 4-0; DHD: 1-1; DRF: 2-1; DRD: 1-3
NHF: 6-8; NHD: 4-2; NRF: 0-4; NRD: 6-1
Dal
Ari
Pit
Den
Buf
Chi
Cle
Jax
Min
Tam
Oak
Sea
Gia
Phi
Hou
Kan
ALL 3 FORMULAS AGREE (11-11)
DHF: 3-0; DHD: 0-1; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 1-1
NHF: 2-6; NHD: 1-1; NRF: 0-2; NRD: 4-0
Dal
Ari
Pit
Den
Buf
Oak
Sea
Hou
Kan
ALL 3 AGREE, ALL OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 5 RATING OR HIGHER (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL 3 AGREE, 2 OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 5 RATING OR HIGHER (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL 3 AGREE, 1 OF WHICH HAS A LEVEL 5 RATING OR HIGHER (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL 3 AGREE, ALL OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 4 RATING OR HIGHER (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL 3 AGREE, 2 OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 4 RATING OR HIGHER (1-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 1-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL 3 AGREE, 1 OF WHICH HAS A LEVEL 4 RATING OR HIGHER (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
Hou
ALL 3 AGREE, ALL OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL 3 AGREE, 2 OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER (1-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 1-0
ALL 3 AGREE, 1 OF WHICH HAS A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER (2-0)
DHF: 1-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 1-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
Buf
ALL 3 AGREE, NONE OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER (7-11)
DHF: 2-0; DHD: 0-1; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-1
NHF: 1-6; NHD: 1-1; NRF: 0-2; NRD: 3-0
Dal
Ari
Pit
Den
Oak
Sea
Kan
ANY 2 AGREE (13-9)
DHF: 1-0; DHD: 1-0; DRF: 2-1; DRD: 0-2
NHF: 4-1; NHD: 2-1; NRF: 0-3; NRD: 3-1
Chi
Cle
Jax
Min
Tam
Gia
Phi
ANY 2 AGREE, BOTH OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ANY 2 AGREE, ONE OF WHICH HAS A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER (2-3)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 1-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 1-0; NHD: 0-1; NRF: 0-1; NRD: 0-1
Min
ANY 2 AGREE, NEITHER OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER (11-6)
DHF: 1-0; DHD: 1-0; DRF: 1-1; DRD: 0-2
NHF: 3-1; NHD: 2-0; NRF: 0-2; NRD: 3-0
Chi
Cle
Jax
Tam
Gia
Phi
KEY
DHF= Division Home Fave
DHD= Division Home Dog
DRF= Division Road Fave
DRD= Division Road Dog
NHF= Non-Division Home Fave
NHD= Non-Division Home Dog
NRF= Non-Division Road Fave
NRD= Non-Division Road Dog
FORMULA III** [F3]= Name given because it involves the consensus of THREE different formulas; hence, Formula "III", meaning "3".
In REALITY, it is the SAME FORMULA--applied to 3 Different Statistical Categories.
Namely, Net Yardage--hence the name [F3-Y], Net Turnovers--hence the name [F3-T], and Net Points--hence the name [F3-P].
The Formulas use "weighted season averages [WSA]", meaning the afforementioned Net Results are given more weight each game as the season progresses. Each team has a WSA.
A team's last 3 games [L3G] are also given a "weighted average" [WA], but with considerably more emphasis incrementally speaking. Each team has a L3G-WA.
The Formula's "make-up" or "foundation" are grounded in "contrare-style" thought processes, contrasting a team's L3G-WA against their WSA. The end result is the difference [DIF] between how far their L3G-WA is below or above their WSA.
Taking two teams, the team with the LOWER DIF is the preferred play. The "DISTANCE between DIFS"--divided by 2--determine the LEVEL RATING using presumably logical plateau's.
For example, for F3-P (dealing with "points"), seemingly logical plateau's would look something like this:
00.01-2.99 LEVEL ONE: Less than a Field Goal
3.00-5.99 LEVEL TWO: Between 1 FG and 2 FG's
6.00-6.99 LEVEL THREE: Between 2 FG's and a TD
7.00-9.99 LEVEL FOUR: Between 1 TD and a TD/FG (or traditionally "double digits")
10.00> LEVEL FIVE: Atleast a double-digit DIF
With F3-Y and F3-T I have established seemingly obvious plateaus as well.
BEST BETS:
By logical presumption, a BEST BET would first and foremost have to begin with the UNANIMOUS Picks--games in which ALL THREE FORMULAS AGREE on the same side. From there, we would prefer that ATLEAST 1 of the Formulas has a LEVEL 3 Rating or higher.
*All Results throughout are Against the Pointspread
**Although a brief overview of its concept is outlined, the Formula itself is not contained in this writing--only the picks and results.
gl,
dave
DHF: 5-0; DHD: 1-1; DRF: 2-1; DRD: 1-2
NHF: 6-7; NHD: 3-2; NRF: 0-5; NRD: 7-1
Week 07: 1-1
Week 08: 8-6
Week 09: 8-6
Week 10: 8-6
-Best Bets 4-0 (Week 11: Buf, Hou)
-Sunday Night Games 3-0 (Week 11: Hou)
-Monday Night Games 2-1 (Week 11: Kan)
Consensus Week 11: Dal, Ari, Pit, Den, Buf, Chi, Cle, Jax, Min, Tam, Oak, Sea, Gia, Phi, Hou, Kan
NOTES:
-My apologies for last week in which I listed NO BEST BETS. When updating this week's records, I noticed that I had inadvertently updated my excell program for 4 bye-week teams: The Falcons, Packers, Jags, and Titans. The end result is that last week I had two BEST BETS that did not show up: FALCONS and VIKINGS. This week I have double checked to make sure my Program is correct for ALL TEAMS.
-An astute observer will notice a common trend throughout these results: Non-Division Road Dogs and Division Home Faves are ON FIRE including a 12-1 ATS record on Consensus games.
-Take special note of F3-T Level 2. It's record is 4-0. I probably should have this as a level 3. My parameters for level 1 are 0.00-0.99. Level 2 is 1.00-1.50. And it goes up from there. But since F3-T deals with TURNOVERS, I probably should've used increments of 0.5 rather than assuming a full 1.0 before going to the next level in rating. In other words, 1.0-1.5 should probably be considered a Level 3 and not a level 2. Moral of the Story: Keep a close eye on those Level 2's with F3-T. It is 4-0 and this week has the Cards and Chiefs.
-Can't help but notice F3-P (points) is a nifty 16-7 ATS in games with a Level 2> rating. In fact, level 2 by itself is 13-5 ATS. Again, this could be a call for a future adjustment (not this season). Remember, a Level 1 rating is 0.01-2.99 and level 2 is 3.00-5.99. Maybe since Level 2 begins at that crucial "Field Goal" DIF it should warrant a level 3 rating. That would mean levels 1 and 2 would look something like this: Level One: 0.01-0.99; Level 2: 1.00-2.99.
Yeah, I like that. But, again, no changes will be made mid-stream. I only point these things out so that you will not necessarily discount something because it does not carry with it the pre-supposed best bet rating of 3 or higher. Hey, this is all experimental and being done on the run, LIVE against Virgin Data. So I would start giving more credit to the Level 2 or greater with F3-T and F3-P. F3-Y (Yardage) is about right, using increments of 25 Yards and the Level 3 begining at 50.0 in my program.
2004 NFL FORMULA III TRACKING
1.) FORMULA III-Y
LEVEL 1 RATING (14-11)
DHF: 4-0; DHD: 1-1; DRF: 0-1; DRD: 0-2
NHF: 2-3; NHD: 3-1; NRF: 0-2; NRD: 4-2
Ari
Pit
Atl
Was
Chi
Cle
Jax
Tam
Sea
Hou
LEVEL 2 RATING (3-8)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-1; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 1-4; NHD: 1-1; NRF: 0-2; NRD: 1-0
Dal
Den
Oak
Kan
LEVEL 3 RATING (4-2)
DHF: 1-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 1-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 1-1; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 1-1
Buf
Min
LEVEL 4 RATING (1-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 1-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
LEVEL 5 RATING (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL LEVEL RATINGS COMBINED FOR FORMULA III-Y (22-22)
DHF: 5-0; DHD: 1-2; DRF: 1-1; DRD: 1-2
NHF: 4-8; NHD: 4-2; NRF: 0-4; NRD: 6-3
Dal
Ari
Pit
Den
Atl
Was
Buf
Chi
Cle
Jax
Min
Tam
Oak
Sea
Hou
Kan
2.) FORMULA III-T
LEVEL 1 RATING (18-22)
DHF: 3-0; DHD: 1-2; DRF: 0-1; DRD: 1-3
NHF: 5-7; NHD: 1-1; NRF: 1-6; NRD: 6-2
Dal
Ind
Pit
Jets
Ten
Det
Den
Sfo
Buf
Oak
Sea
Gia
Phi
Hou
LEVEL 2 RATING (4-0)
DHF: 1-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 1-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 1-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 1-0
Ari
Kan
LEVEL 3 RATING (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
LEVEL 4 RATING (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
LEVEL 5 RATING (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL LEVEL RATINGS COMBINED FOR FORMULA III-T (22-22)
DHF: 4-0; DHD: 1-2; DRF: 1-1; DRD: 1-3
NHF: 5-7; NHD: 2-1; NRF: 1-6; NRD: 7-2
Dal
Ari
Ind
Pit
Jets
Ten
Det
Den
Sfo
Buf
Oak
Sea
Gia
Phi
Hou
Kan
3.) FORMULA III-P
LEVEL 1 RATING (9-12)
DHF: 1-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-1; DRD: 0-2
NHF: 2-5; NHD: 2-1; NRF: 0-2; NRD: 4-1
Dal
Pit
Den
Buf
Chi
Cle
Jax
Min
Tam
Sea
Gia
Phi
LEVEL 2 RATING (13-5)
DHF: 3-0; DHD: 2-0; DRF: 2-0; DRD: 0-1
NHF: 3-3; NHD: 2-0; NRF: 0-1; NRD: 1-0
Ari
Oak
Kan
LEVEL 3 RATING (1-1)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 1-1; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
LEVEL 4 RATING: (1-1)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-1; NRD: 1-0
Hou
LEVEL 5 RATING (1-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 1-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL LEVEL RATINGS COMBINED FOR FORMULA III-P (24-20)
DHF: 4-0; DHD: 1-1; DRF: 2-1; DRD: 1-3
NHF: 6-8; NHD: 4-2; NRF: 0-4; NRD: 6-1
Dal
Ari
Pit
Den
Buf
Chi
Cle
Jax
Min
Tam
Oak
Sea
Gia
Phi
Hou
Kan
ALL 3 FORMULAS AGREE (11-11)
DHF: 3-0; DHD: 0-1; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 1-1
NHF: 2-6; NHD: 1-1; NRF: 0-2; NRD: 4-0
Dal
Ari
Pit
Den
Buf
Oak
Sea
Hou
Kan
ALL 3 AGREE, ALL OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 5 RATING OR HIGHER (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL 3 AGREE, 2 OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 5 RATING OR HIGHER (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL 3 AGREE, 1 OF WHICH HAS A LEVEL 5 RATING OR HIGHER (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL 3 AGREE, ALL OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 4 RATING OR HIGHER (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL 3 AGREE, 2 OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 4 RATING OR HIGHER (1-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 1-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL 3 AGREE, 1 OF WHICH HAS A LEVEL 4 RATING OR HIGHER (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
Hou
ALL 3 AGREE, ALL OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ALL 3 AGREE, 2 OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER (1-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 1-0
ALL 3 AGREE, 1 OF WHICH HAS A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER (2-0)
DHF: 1-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 1-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
Buf
ALL 3 AGREE, NONE OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER (7-11)
DHF: 2-0; DHD: 0-1; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-1
NHF: 1-6; NHD: 1-1; NRF: 0-2; NRD: 3-0
Dal
Ari
Pit
Den
Oak
Sea
Kan
ANY 2 AGREE (13-9)
DHF: 1-0; DHD: 1-0; DRF: 2-1; DRD: 0-2
NHF: 4-1; NHD: 2-1; NRF: 0-3; NRD: 3-1
Chi
Cle
Jax
Min
Tam
Gia
Phi
ANY 2 AGREE, BOTH OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER (0-0)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
ANY 2 AGREE, ONE OF WHICH HAS A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER (2-3)
DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 1-0; DRD: 0-0
NHF: 1-0; NHD: 0-1; NRF: 0-1; NRD: 0-1
Min
ANY 2 AGREE, NEITHER OF WHICH HAVE A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER (11-6)
DHF: 1-0; DHD: 1-0; DRF: 1-1; DRD: 0-2
NHF: 3-1; NHD: 2-0; NRF: 0-2; NRD: 3-0
Chi
Cle
Jax
Tam
Gia
Phi
KEY
DHF= Division Home Fave
DHD= Division Home Dog
DRF= Division Road Fave
DRD= Division Road Dog
NHF= Non-Division Home Fave
NHD= Non-Division Home Dog
NRF= Non-Division Road Fave
NRD= Non-Division Road Dog
FORMULA III** [F3]= Name given because it involves the consensus of THREE different formulas; hence, Formula "III", meaning "3".
In REALITY, it is the SAME FORMULA--applied to 3 Different Statistical Categories.
Namely, Net Yardage--hence the name [F3-Y], Net Turnovers--hence the name [F3-T], and Net Points--hence the name [F3-P].
The Formulas use "weighted season averages [WSA]", meaning the afforementioned Net Results are given more weight each game as the season progresses. Each team has a WSA.
A team's last 3 games [L3G] are also given a "weighted average" [WA], but with considerably more emphasis incrementally speaking. Each team has a L3G-WA.
The Formula's "make-up" or "foundation" are grounded in "contrare-style" thought processes, contrasting a team's L3G-WA against their WSA. The end result is the difference [DIF] between how far their L3G-WA is below or above their WSA.
Taking two teams, the team with the LOWER DIF is the preferred play. The "DISTANCE between DIFS"--divided by 2--determine the LEVEL RATING using presumably logical plateau's.
For example, for F3-P (dealing with "points"), seemingly logical plateau's would look something like this:
00.01-2.99 LEVEL ONE: Less than a Field Goal
3.00-5.99 LEVEL TWO: Between 1 FG and 2 FG's
6.00-6.99 LEVEL THREE: Between 2 FG's and a TD
7.00-9.99 LEVEL FOUR: Between 1 TD and a TD/FG (or traditionally "double digits")
10.00> LEVEL FIVE: Atleast a double-digit DIF
With F3-Y and F3-T I have established seemingly obvious plateaus as well.
BEST BETS:
By logical presumption, a BEST BET would first and foremost have to begin with the UNANIMOUS Picks--games in which ALL THREE FORMULAS AGREE on the same side. From there, we would prefer that ATLEAST 1 of the Formulas has a LEVEL 3 Rating or higher.
*All Results throughout are Against the Pointspread
**Although a brief overview of its concept is outlined, the Formula itself is not contained in this writing--only the picks and results.
gl,
dave
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